US inflation was last at 8.3% in January 1982. And then, the 10-year yield was 14.6. History may not be a perfect guide, but it is the best we have. So it might be worth planning for rates to go much higher than most “experts” expect, now that they have broken out of their downtrend.
Chemicals and the Economy
Smartphone sales continue to fall as consumers cut back
Consumers around the world are tightening their purses and cutting back on non-essential purchases, as the recession continues to develop and China’s real estate bubble bursts.
Jackson Hole is a chance to prepare for a financial shock
The problems began with the supply chain crisis caused by the pandemic. Russia’s war in Ukraine then created a further challenge. And now we face the risk of famine as fertiliser costs become unaffordable. Central bankers at their annual Jackson Hole get-together should therefore focus on preparing for the arrival of a potential Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse, in the shape of a major financial crisis.
Prepare for the coming crisis
As the head of Germany’s Employers’ Associations warned last month: “We are facing the biggest crisis the post-war Federal Republic has ever had. We have to be honest and say: First of all, we will lose the prosperity that we have had for years”.
The blog’s 15th birthday – and the chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy
The US is moving into recession as the Atlanta Fed chart confirms. Chemicals have been warning of this for some time. But policymakers and commentators remain in Denial about the economy. They prefer to focus on their computer models, and ignore the real world outside their window.
Markets will see plenty of rallies, but history suggests the real bottom will be at least 2 years away
The history of the 1929 and 2000 downturns suggests the real pain is yet to come. Housing markets look terribly over-valued around the world, as I noted last month. And US consumer sentiment is at all-time lows. So most company earnings seem set to fall, with more than 60% of US CEOs now expecting to see a recession.
Wall Street finally recognises a recession is underway – “It’s a hurricane…coming our way”
There are positives in all this, as the Green agenda will create new opportunities to replace those that are now disappearing. But for the moment, at least, the risks associated with a likely lengthy and deep recession are likely to dominate. Please be careful out there.
Smartphone sales set to tumble as China’s lockdowns continue
The market downturn couldn’t have come at a worse time for Apple. It was already facing major supply chain chaos in Q2. And now it has to face a major decline in the smartphone market itself. Inevitably this will lead to a brutal battle for market share as companies struggle to survive.
The chemicals industry continues to be the best leading indicator for the global economy
Central banks and investors believed stimulus programs had created a “New Paradigm” where asset prices would always increase. Now they are starting to realise that stimulus is irrelevant against the 3 Horsemen of the Apocalypse – China’s continuing battle with the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and potential for famine as rising gas/fertilizer prices mean farmers can’t afford to grow their crops or feed their animals.
Time to focus on the danger of corporate and household leverage as “subprime on steroids” comes to an end
The seeming genius of many private equity funds in recent years has been based on this ability to borrow at cheap rates during the ‘up’ part of the business cycle. Now we are heading into the ‘down’ cycle. And the central banks have abandoned Bernanke Theory and are back to worrying about inflation. So today’s excess leverage means many over-leveraged companies will go bust.