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Ethanol news
LatAm tariff-induced hit to growth to be recouped only by 2028
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Latin American economies face mounting economic pressure as new global trade conflicts emerge and the region’s growth could be 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in 2025 and 0.4 percentage points lower in 2026, analysts at US credit rating agency Moody’s said on Wednesday. Mexican tariffs likely as migrant flows to continue Brazil’s aim to increase non-dollar payments angers Washington Hit to growth due to tariffs and trade conflicts to be felt until 2028 The region, which narrowly avoided a direct impact in previous trade disputes, now confronts a more complex landscape where traditional economic buffers appear increasingly fragile. “The opening salvos of the global trade war have already been exchanged, and while Latin America has narrowly stepped out of the firing line, difficult days are ahead. While we expect Latin America to ultimately avoid recession under our baseline forecast, further tariff escalation could nudge the region into a broader downturn,” said Moody’s. “Using our Global Macroeconomic Model, we simulate the effects of an additional 10-percentage point increase in the US effective tariff rate for Mexico and the rest of Latin America above and beyond what we are anticipating in our baseline. The result is a broad-based downturn in the region, with a contraction in output, elevated unemployment, surging inflation, and a collapse in trade.” The analysts said those decreases in output and employment caused by trade conflicts would only be recouped by 2028. MEXICO ON FIRING LINEMexico stands to bear the brunt of US trade measures, given its deep economic ties to its northern neighbour and heavy reliance on remittances to support consumer spending at home. Moody’s analysts expect the US to implement broad tariffs on Mexican exports, though at rates lower than the 25% initially proposed in early February, proposals which are on hold for a month. The US administration has focused on Latin America since taking office, targeting Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil over trade imbalances, immigration concerns, and efforts to reduce dollar dependence in international trade. While recent tariff threats against Mexico and Colombia have been postponed or retracted, Moody’s expect effective tariff rates on US imports from the region to rise significantly. Core disputes between Washington and Mexico centre on the trade deficit and immigration flows, issues unlikely to be resolved through negotiation alone. “These [migrants’] inflows will remain a focal point of the Trump administration and are a potential wild card in US tariff policy. With inflows of undocumented migrants unlikely to fade as fast as Trump would like, the stage is set for higher tariffs on Mexico,” said Moody’s. “If the tariff spat between the US and Colombia is any guide, any Latin American nation that refuses to cooperate with US deportations could find itself on the receiving end of tariffs regardless of the proximity of diplomatic and economic ties.” Moody’s forecasts US tariffs on Mexican imports will rise to 10% in coming months, with Mexican retaliation expected, and the measures will likely remain in place until early 2026, when mounting economic pressures could force a policy reversal. Moreover, the combined impact of Mexican and Chinese tariffs is expected to also strain the US economy, said Moody’s, which in turn would also affect Latin American economies further. BRAZILIAN CHALLENGESBrazil faces separate challenges, as tensions rise over its attempts to develop alternatives to dollar-based trade within the BRICS group of countries, of which China and Russia are leading members. This week, the Brazilian government said it would be hosting the annual BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in July. BRICS founding members were Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa; later the group expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE. Despite limited progress in establishing alternative payment systems – with the Chinese yuan accounting for a minimal share of global reserves – Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's promotion of BRICS currencies has drawn criticism from Washington. The China Investment Information Platform, proposed as an alternative to Western-led global payments, still relies heavily on SWIFT infrastructure. Federal Reserve data shows minimal advancement in global yuan usage across trade, debt issuance, international banking claims, and reserves, with most BRICS nations continuing to invoice predominantly in US dollars. Steel and aluminium tariffs, set to take effect in March, present additional risks for Brazil and Mexico, the second and third-largest sources of US steel imports. However, the direct economic impact may be limited, said Moody’s, as steel comprises less than 1% of Mexican exports and under 5% for Brazil. Mexico directs almost 90% of its steel exports to the US, while Brazil sends just under 50%. Last week, the US also said it was mulling increasing tariffs on Brazilian ethanol. “More concerning for the Brazilian economy will be the broader-based slowdown of the Chinese and global economies. Brazil boasts the whole market basket of commodities, from industrial metals to agricultural products and even oil, with iron ore and metals exports accounting for around 15% of Brazil’s total exports alone,” said Moody’s. “While the US is Brazil’s most important export market for steel, most Brazilian steel production is destined for domestic consumption. It is not unreasonable to think that steel exports priced out of the US could find a home elsewhere.” Unlike during the 2018-2019 trade tensions, when Latin American nations offset slower global growth by increasing commodity exports to China and Asia, the region now faces fewer alternatives, said Moody’s. Chinese dietary shifts, which previously drove demand for agricultural products, have largely stabilised, while metals producers Chile and Peru confront weakening Chinese property markets. Brazilian agricultural exports to China surged during previous trade disputes, with soybean exports nearly doubling US levels, even after China lifted retaliatory tariffs following the Phase One trade agreement. However, analysts suggest such trade diversification opportunities may prove more limited in the current climate. SEVERE SCENARIOMoody’s went on to say that in a more severe scenario where US tariffs on Mexican and Brazilian imports reach 20%, and Chinese import tariffs hit 40%, a full-blown recession in Latin America could take place. Mexico would face the heaviest impact due to US exposure, while Brazil would suffer from Chinese economic contraction. Under such conditions, Chile, Peru and Colombia would experience significant downturns, with recovery potentially extending to 2028. Chile's concentrated commodity exposure makes it particularly vulnerable, with projections showing three consecutive quarters of GDP contraction and a recovery period exceeding one year. Focus article by Jonathan Lopez
19-Feb-2025
Latin America stories: weekly summary
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 14 February. NEWS INSIGHT: US mulls reciprocal tariffs on Brazil ethanol, cabinet hopes steel quota is to be kept Although the new US administration has so far only imposed tariffs on China, President Donald Trump keeps using the tariff threat as a form of negotiation and in the latter part of this week it was the turn of Brazil’s ethanol. Brazil’s Unigel plans listing but location undisclosed, rules out IPO – company Unigel’s restructuring plan includes listing shares on the stock exchange but not an initial public offering (IPO) issuing new shares, a spokesperson for the Brazilian chemicals producer said to ICIS. Brazil’s inflation slows in January but monetary tightening to continue – analysts Brazil’s annual rate of inflation fell in January to 4.56%, down from 4.83% in December, the country’s statistical office, IBGE, said this week. INSIGHT: EU-Chile trade deal could benefit chemicals indirectly via higher minerals supply (part 1) An interim trade accord between Chile and the EU kicked off on 1 February and the 27-country bloc is not shy about its main objective: get preferential access to the Latin American nation’s vast resources of raw materials. Mexico’s inflation falls in January nearing target, automotive exports under pressure Mexico’s annual rate of inflation fell to 3.59% in January, down sharply from December’s 4.2%, the country’s statistics office Inegi said. Brazil’s automotive January production up 15% on healthy demand at home, abroad Brazil's petrochemicals-intensive automotive production rose more than 15%, year on year, to 175,500 units – the highest January output since 2021 – while exports jumped over 50%, the country’s trade group Anfavea said on Monday. PRICING LatAm PE international prices stable to up on higher US export offersInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as stable to up on higher US export offers. LatAm PP domestic prices up in Mexico on higher feedstock costs Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Mexico tracking higher propylene costs. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged.
17-Feb-2025
Americas top stories: weekly summary
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 14 February. IPEX: Asia finding a floor, up 1%; PVC and PP drive 1.3% index fall in Europe; USG toluene firms The ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) for January shows that northeast Asian chemical markets may be finding a floor after two consecutive months of declines, with the regional index up 1% – only its second gain in six months, driven by a 14.7% surge in butadiene due to rising crude oil costs. US higher steel tariffs could backfire, reduce capex in chemical, industrial plants – ICIS economist Potential US 25% tariffs on steel and other metals could ultimately reduce capital expenditure (capex) in chemicals and industrial plants as costs rise, according to an economist at ICIS. US’ 25% tariffs on all steel, aluminium imports start 12 March The US will start imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports starting 12 March, under the executive order signed by US President Donald Trump on 11 February. INSIGHT: EU-Chile trade deal could benefit chemicals indirectly via higher minerals supply (part 1) An interim trade accord between Chile and the EU kicked off on 1 February and the 27-country bloc is not shy about its main objective: get preferential access to the Latin American nation’s vast resources of raw materials. INSIGHT: US reciprocal tariffs would have little direct impact on commodity chemicals markets – analysis The threat of US reciprocal tariffs is the latest wrinkle in US trade policy, spurring players to game out potential impacts. For the US chemical industry, there should be little direct impact on commodity markets as imports largely originate from Canada and South Korea – countries that already have free trade agreements with the US. Americas Styrenics sale process delayed as better market conditions expected later in 2025 – Trinseo The potential sale of Americas Styrenics (AmSty) – the 50/50 joint venture between Trinseo and Chevron Phillips Chemical (CP Chem) is being delayed as better market conditions are expected later in 2025, said the CEO of Trinseo. Reciprocal tariffs will match taxes on US goods by other countries; to take effect in April The US plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries as early as 2 April once the required investigations have taken place, President Donald Trump said on Thursday. INSIGHT: US mulls reciprocal tariffs on Brazil ethanol, cabinet hopes steel quota is to be kept Although the new US administration has so far only imposed tariffs on China, President Donald Trump keeps using the tariff threat as a form of negotiation and in the latter part of this week it was the turn of Brazil’s ethanol.
17-Feb-2025
INSIGHT: US mulls reciprocal tariffs on Brazil ethanol, cabinet hopes steel quota is to be kept
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Although the new US administration has so far only imposed tariffs on China, President Donald Trump keeps using the tariff threat as a form of negotiation and in the latter part of this week it was the turn of Brazil’s ethanol. Earlier in the week, Brazilian officials had already been in damage limitation mode after the US said it would impose higher tariffs on steel on 12 March. Brazil’s still strong steel sector is now hoping the two countries will agree, just like they did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, a quota so Brazil can have an outlet for its excess steel. ETHANOL IN THE SPOTLIGHTThe Brazilian government has so far kept a low profile in the issues presented to it by the new US Administration; first, it was deportation flights and the rather discrete row caused by the fact that Brazilians returning home did so handcuffed in the aircraft. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, however, was wary of how his Colombian counterpart, Gustavo Petro, reacted to the first deportation flights – taking to social media to say Colombia’s sovereignty could never be curtailed, after he ordered two flights to return to the US. Trump’s furious reaction on a Sunday afternoon in his first week in the White House sent the signal to allies – Colombia is a firm ally of the US in the region – and enemies alike about the new winds blowing in Washington. As already said, Brazil’s cabinet also kept a rather low profile about the tariffs on steel. The week started with a report by Folha de S. Paulo citing an unnamed cabinet official saying Brazil could retaliate by raising taxes on the US technological majors operating in the country. The Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was quick to deny such a possibility a few hours later, and what could have become a big row died down. But then came a White House announcement on reciprocal tariffs later in the week, and the US intention to analyze country by country all tariffs and end “unfair trade practices.” The US mentioned specifically Brazilian ethanol as a prime example of those unfair trade practices, something the US trade group for the sector, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), was quick to grasp after years of lobbying. “The US is one of the most open economies in the world, yet our trading partners keep their markets closed to our exports. This lack of reciprocity is unfair and contributes to our large and persistent annual trade deficit,” said the White House. “There are endless examples where our trading partners do not give the US reciprocal treatment. [For example] The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5%. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18%.” The White House went on to say the US posted a trade deficit with Brazil of $148 million in 2024, which it attributed to the effect of the country's higher import tariff. Brazil’s exports to the US totaled $200 million last year, while US shipments stood at $48 million. With Brazil featuring so prominently in one of the White House’s dozens of weekly press releases, it was difficult for the cabinet to remain in the background, aware that ethanol is an important employer and, in a way, Brazil’s own success story. In the 1970's crude oil prices shock, the country took the strategic decision to encourage ethanol as a motor fuel, propping up at the same time what was then a nascent agribusiness which became one of the world’s breadbaskets, owing to Brazil’s vast arable land and abundant water and warm weather. Ethanol, therefore, required a stronger response, and the cabinet’s measured statement decided to focus on sugar. The minister for energy and mines – a heavyweight in any Brazilian government – was the one in charge to remind the US that if all tariffs should be reciprocal, Brazil would very much like to see the hefty tariffs on its sugar lowered. Alexandre Silveira argued that Brazil’s sugar had to pay an 81.16% import tariff to enter the US, without offering anything in return. “To have a fair and reciprocal plan, as stated by President Trump, it would be necessary, in fact, to eliminate import tariffs for Brazilian sugar,” he said, as quoted by CNN Brazil. “Trump’s decision is unreasonable, as there is no counterpart in expanding Brazilian sugar exports to the US. This type of stance weakens multilateralism and will have negative consequences for the US economy itself.” As soon as Brazil’s ethanol featured on the White House’s communication, the US trade group RFA’s CEO issued a statement celebrating that after a decade spending “precious time and resources fighting back against an unfair and unjustified tariff regime” imposed by Brazil on US ethanol exports, the lobbying had finally paid off. “What's more ironic is that these tariff barriers have been erected against US ethanol imports while our country has openly accepted – and even encouraged and incentivized – ethanol imports from Brazil,” said Geoff Cooper. STEEL TARIFFSJust like everyone else, the Brazilian cabinet is trying to adapt to the fast pace of another Trump presidency. For much of the first half of this week, ministers in public and steel industry players in private went from panic mode to talks mode as the 12 March implementation date offers room for that. Brazil’s officials are hopeful a new quota can be agreed with the US, after pressure from manufacturing companies in the US persuaded Trump during his first term to establish a 3.5-million tonne quota for steel semi-finished products and slabs, and a 687,000 tonne quota of rolled products. In the current environment, the repetition of that deal would a be a resounding success for Brazil’s steel producers. Brazil’s produces around 32 million tonnes of steel annually, according to trade group the Steel Brazil Institute, but the country’s demand stands at 24 million. This means the sector must find markets overseas, and for the past few years nearly half of that has been going to the US as per the quota agreed. The large US trade deficit in steel is shown by the 20-25 million tonnes/year imported. In the nine months to September 2024, the US had imported 20.2 million tonnes, according to the US International Trade Administration. Brazil, with 16.7% market share in those imports entering the US, is the second largest supplier only behind Canada (22.5%), followed by Mexico (11.4%), South Korea (10.1%), Vietnam (4.6%), and Japan (4.0%), according to the official data. If the universal tariffs on steel are finally implemented on 12 March, Brazil’s quota would also come to an end. This is where Brazilian officials will put much of its efforts in the next four weeks, an attempt which may well end up being successful if US manufacturers are listened to. Earlier this week, an economist at ICIS warned that higher steel tariffs would likely increase prices in US manufacturing and could potentially reduce levels of capital expenditure (capex) in new plants. The US is heavily reliant in steel imports to cover its demand. “A tariff raises the price in the market as domestic steel producers raise the price for steel to match the tariff… Higher price lowers quantity demanded (law of demand) but does increase quantity supplied by domestic producers. Tariffs allow inefficient domestic products to produce when then they could not have done so without the tariff,” said Kevin Swift. “Steel tariffs will raise the cost of building a chemical plant, for ongoing maintenance, etc. These will especially hurt when government policy is to foster re-shoring and FDI [foreign direct investment] in the US.” US manufacturers likely to be lobbying for exceptions to the steel tariffs are set to be Brazil’s best ally in the next four weeks, considering Trump’s chauvinistic approach to most things. Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) re-election in the presidential election due in 2026 hangs in the balance. While manufacturing had a bumper 2024, more formal and better-paid jobs in industry have been hard to come so far. The PT’s main constituency is industrial workers, and a blow to the steel sector now would come to represent actual jobs being lost but also, given steel’s unique role in supposedly representing a strong and self-sufficient industrial fabric, a blow to the credibility of the government. The government came into office in 2023 promising to create more jobs by reviving manufacturing. Just like so many other cabinets had done before it in the past 50 years. Frong page picture source: World Steel Association (Worldsteel) Insight by Jonathan Lopez
14-Feb-2025
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates tick lower; shippers frontloading cargoes on tariff pause
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US ticked lower this week, although they could see upward pressure from shippers pulling forward volumes ahead of the 30-day tariff freeze, while rates for liquid chemical tankers held steady. Global average rates fell by 3%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Global average rates are down by almost 18% from 1 September, and down by almost 45% from the high of the year in mid-July. Rates from Shanghai to both US coasts fell by 1%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming week due to the increase in capacity as container ship order books are at record highs. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said his company is already seeing some upward pressure on prices although some could be because of shippers frontloading volumes to beat the 30-day pause before tariffs are enacted. ‘We could expect frontloading ahead of tariffs – which has been a major factor keeping US ocean import volumes and transpacific container rates elevated since November – to intensify until the new tariffs are introduced or called off,” Levine said. Levine said it is hard to determine the impact from volumes being pulled forward since this has likely been happening for several months, and with the market in the lull surrounding the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. “But we could expect demand and rates to increase post-LNY,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STEADY US chemical tanker freight rates as assessed by ICIS were unchanged this week with contract of affreightment (COA) nominations steady for most trade lanes. For the cargoes in the South American trade lane, COAs remain strong leaving very little spot availability. A large parcel of ethanol fixed USG to San Luis, and several others were quoted for second half of February. Similarly, for the USG to ARA trade lane, it was another off week with only a few reported fixtures. However, there were some unusual cargoes fixed for products like caustic soda and ethanol. Some styrene was reported fixed from Lake Charles to ARA. Overall, rates seem to be maintaining current levels particularly for the 3,000- and 5,000-tonne parcels. There was no difference along the USG to Asia routes, as it was another quiet week on this trade lane. Spot rates remain steady as the H1 February space across the regular carriers is sold out. Some of the larger players should have space in the second half of February depending on COA nominations. The chemical COAs have been steady through H1 March, but still in the tentative phase. Several inquiries were seen for methanol, ethanol, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), styrene and MEG. On the other hand, bunker prices were unchanged this week but overall remain strong. PANAMA CANAL UPDATE Panama’s president said the country will not renew its agreement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) after a visit from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. President Donald Trump surprised some when he said that the US should reclaim the Panama Canal, and a US congressman has since introduced a bill that would authorize the purchase of the vital waterway. The actions taken by Panama’s president, Jose Raul Molino, may slow action by the Trump administration to take back control of the canal. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
07-Feb-2025
Brazil’s Unigel appoints Dario Gaeta as CEO after debt restructuring greenlit
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazilian chemicals producer Unigel has concluded its debt restructuring process worth Brazilian reais (R) 5.1 billion ($885 million) after a Sao Paulo business court greenlit the plans drawn up by creditors. Unigel said it would be able to deleverage its debts by around 50% with the restructuring process’ conversion of R5.1 billion of existing debt into new financial instruments. The restructuring puts an end to the decades-long private ownership of Unigel in the hands of its founder, 88-year-old Henri Armand Szlezynger. “The execution of the RE [restructuring] Plan marks a pivotal transition in Unigel’s governance framework, with Option A [main] Creditors now holding a 50% stake in the company’s equity structure,” said Unigel. The new majority owners headhunted for the CEO position the Brazilian executive Dario Gaeta, with decades of experience at industrial and agricultural companies. Up to 2024, he was chief operating officer at ethanol producer Atvos and, prior to that, he was the CEO at Tiete Agroindustrial, another company in the sugar and ethanol sector, according to Gaeta’s LinkedIn profile. Former CEO Roberto Noronha has been demoted to board member, and the vice president who has overseen the restructuring, Daniel Zilberknop, an old name in Unigel, has been appointed chairman of the board. Unigel’s new board composition Position Name Representative Chairman of the Board Daniel Zilberknop Independent CEO Dario Gaeta Not provided Board Member Marc Buckingham Szlezynger Cigel Board Member Roberto Noronha Santos Cigel Board Member Pedro Wongtschowski Cigel Board Member Fabio de Barros Pinheiro Creditors Board Member Kofi William Bentsi-Enchill Creditors Board Member Gregorio Mario Charnas Creditors The restructuring plan also signals an exit from the fertilizers sector, as already outlined at the beginning of the restructuring process by creditors. High prices for natural gas – fertilizers’ main feedstock – was the main cause for that part of the business to start faltering, dragging the rest behind it in the end. Some plants which were leased to Unigel by Brazil’s state-owned energy major Petrobras are reportedly on course to return under Petrobras’ umbrella, even if Unigel may continue operating them. Unigel, then, is to remain mostly what it was before it ventured into fertilizers and was caught up in a major sector downturn. The company mostly produces styrenics and acrylics. For products and capacities, see bottom table. SULPHURIC ACID PLANTEarlier in January, Unigel presented plans to finish construction of its sulphuric acid plant in the state of Bahia, which had been paused as the company's financial woes increased. Unigel said it would invest $36.8 million to finish up the plant in Camacari, aiming to start it up by September. Production capacities were not disclosed. When fully functioning, the plant will allow Unigel to reduce its acid purchases in the open market. Acid is a key chemical used in many other chemical and industrial processes. Jonathan Szwarc, head of Latin America credit research at data firm specializing in leveraged capital markets Debtwire, who covered Unigel in the past, said by reducing its dependency on imports the sulphuric acid plant was a sound project from which Unigel’s could start building up its recovery. “The numbers for that project are sound. From my time covering Unigel, I remember the return on investment was expected to be very healthy: in up to four years, the company expects to have paid off the investment, such are the large amounts of acid it has to purchase in the open market,” said Szwarc. Earlier this month, Unigel also presented, for the first time in several quarters, a financial forecast for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) up to 2030. The company has not published any financial results since 2023, a provision contemplated under Brazilian corporate law for companies in financial distress. For 2025, Unigel said it expected upsides coming from a 5% increase in Brazil’s styrene import tariff ($4 million positive contribution) and a higher rate in the REIQ tax benefit system for chemicals companies ($14 million). According to Unigel, its EBITDA could rise to $182 million by 2030. Unigel forecasts 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 EBITDA (in $ million) 49 142 164 176 173 182 Whether Unigel’s medium-term forecasts are realized remains to the seen, as it ultimately is a company in very deep financial distress for the past year and a half, operating in a market – petrochemicals – which is going through one of the longest sector’s downturns. “2030 is indeed quite a long forecast on this occasion. But, of course, for a judge to approve your restructuring plan you must present some sort of credible plan: detailed forecasts on financials, on spreads, on production…” said Szwarc. “Whether those forecasts end up realized, that’s another matter. But as we say in this world – an Excel [spreadsheet] can withstand almost anything,” he concluded, ironically. ($1 = R5.76) Additional information by Yashas Mudumbai Focus article by Jonathan Lopez
04-Feb-2025
India to roll out 20% ethanol-blended fuel by March
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is set to roll out a 20% ethanol-blended (E20) fuel mandate by March – about nine months ahead of schedule – as there will be enough availability of the environment-friendly additive in the domestic market without endangering sugar production. 2.5% price hike for C-heavy molasses to deter feedstock diversion away from sugar Rice feedstock prices reduced to boost production Auto companies to soon launch 100% ethanol vehicles For the year ending October 2025, the Indian government has approved on 29 January a 2.5% hike in the procurement price of ethanol made from C-heavy molasses, which contain the least sugar among three types of available sugarcane feedstock. India’s ethanol supply year (ESY) is from November to October. The price adjustment acts as an incentive for producers to use the C-heavy feedstock to make ethanol, instead of the A and B molasses that typically go into sugar production. Domestic oil manufacturing companies (OMC) such as Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) will now have to pay a higher price for ethanol made from C-heavy molasses. The government-determined ethanol price was last revised in November 2022. Meanwhile, to further encourage ethanol production, the government on17 January 2025 reduced the price of rice feedstock by more than 24% to Rs22.50/kilogram (kg) amid a surplus. Rice and maize are alternative feedstocks for ethanol production. This decision has helped to make ethanol produced from rice feedstock more economically viable, Grain Ethanol Manufacturers Association (GEMA) treasurer Abhinav Singal said. The government had banned the use of rice as feedstock for ethanol production from July 2023 to August 2024. Notwithstanding the lifting of the ban, ethanol producers were still finding rice prices too high to make production economically viable. “Stability in feed prices will boost ethanol production from rice. The earlier rate was unviable for the units,” Singal said. Nearly 65% of the ethanol produced in the country is sourced from sugarcane while the remaining 35% comes from grains, including maize and rice. India will achieve 20% blending of ethanol in gasoline in the next two months and will soon be able to blend more than 20% ethanol in gasoline if the need arises, India’s petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri said at the Auto Expo 2025 on 21 January. In 2023-24, there was a phased roll-out of 20% ethanol in select outlets across the country, with full implementation initially targeted by 2030. The target full implementation was brought forward to 2025-26 as ethanol availability is now assured following a series of measures taken over the past two years, industry sources said. “We have increased ethanol blending in fuel from 1.5% per cent in 2014 to 10% in May 2022, which was well ahead of the November 2022 deadline and now the target of 20% blending has also moved forward significantly,” he added. “Our current distillation capacity, which is at about 16.83 billion litres, is projected to cross 17 billion litres, and will leave us with ample opportunity to blend beyond 20%,” he added. India achieved ethanol blending of 18.2% in gasoline in December 2024, official data show. The government is currently working on a plan to bring down retail prices of ethanol for use as fuel in vehicles with flexible fuel engines, India’s road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari said at the Sugar-Ethanol and Bio Energy India Conference on 30 January. Around nine companies in India will soon be launching cars and two-wheelers that run on 100% ethanol, he added. Major automobile manufacturers, including Mahindra & Mahindra, Toyota, Hyundai, and Tata, will introduce 100% ethanol-powered vehicles over the next five months, with two-wheeler makers also adopting the technology, he said. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs87.08)
04-Feb-2025
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates plunge on Lunar New Year holiday lull
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US plunged this week, as did global average rates amid the typical slowdown around the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. Meanwhile, shipowners are out with surcharges on various trade lanes, which could support rates at current levels even with the slowdown in volumes. Global average rates fell by 11% according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 8%, while rates from Shanghai to New York fell by 7%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming week on the back of the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also showed decreases, with a 10% fall from Asia to the West Coast and a 3% drop to the East Coast. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said the lull around LNY is pressuring rates lower. CMA CGM has announced a congestion surcharge of $300/FEU originating from Callao and San Antonio to the US East Coast and US Gulf. Global shipping major Maersk announced peak season surcharges of $1,000 for all sizes of containers for shipments from Middle East countries to the US and Canada East Coast, effective 1 February. Hapag-Lloyd has announced peak season surcharges of $600/container from Chile to Asia. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. RETURN TO SUEZ CANAL NOT IMMINENT While the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas led to some optimism that transits through the Suez Canal could resume, passage of commercial vessels through the waterway are not imminent. Levine said there remains skepticism among shipping analysts that the Houthi rebels will refrain from attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea even during the first stage of the ceasefire. Negotiations on the second phase of the agreement are scheduled to begin on 5 February. Levine said ocean carriers do see the ceasefire as a promising first step, but only CMA CGM has said it will increase its use of the Suez Canal. Most carriers will not take the costly and complicated concrete steps to return to the Red Sea until they are confident that the route is and will remain safe. Many shippers and freight forwarded are also hesitant to change course. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said carriers will want assurance they have safe passage for crews and ships in the long term and that the situation will not suddenly deteriorate. PANAMA CANAL President Donald Trump surprised some when he said that the US should reclaim the Panama Canal. A US congressman has since introduced a bill that would authorize the purchase of the Panama Canal. The US is the largest user of the canal, with around 70% of all traffic heading to or coming from US ports. About 40% of US container traffic use the canal. The US relinquished control of the canal on 31 December 1999 in The Panama Canal Treaty, signed by then US President Jimmy Carter. Panamanian President Jose Raul Molino said the treaty, along with The Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, established the permanent neutrality of the Canal, guaranteeing its open and safe operation for all nations. The Panama Canal remains the primary route for trade between Asia and the US Gulf and East Coast. LIQUID TANKER RATES US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were largely stable week on week, with just the USG to Brazil trade lane seeing a slight increase on smaller volumes but overall unchanged. The market remained quiet this week, with COA volumes steady. For cargoes moving in and out of South America some space remains available, capping the gains seen on the week. Strong interest that was seen over the past two months is waning, which is likely to put additional pressure on freight rates. Volumes from the US continue to flow, but cargo moving into Asia is slowing because of the Lunar New Year holiday. However, monoethylene glycol (MEG) and ethanol entered the market for February loading. A different scenario is playing out on the transatlantic eastbound route where February loading space is already available for spot but on a limited basis. On the other hand, there seems to be a lot of interest on the USG to India trade lanes as there is a lot of lube oils interest for January with limited spot space remaining as owner await COA nominations. Several inquiries were seen for methanol, ethanol and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
24-Jan-2025
Summary of 2025 Americas Outlook Stories
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030 For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed. OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient. OUTLOOK '25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2. OUTLOOK '25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics. OUTLOOK '25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK '25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply. OUTLOOK '25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates. OUTLOOK '25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule. OUTLOOK '25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures. OUTLOOK '25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US soda ash facing subdued demand US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise. OUTLOOK '25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK '25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases. OUTLOOK '25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route. OUTLOOK '25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications. OUTLOOK '25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports. OUTLOOK '25: US MA facing muted demand expectations US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK '25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. OUTLOOK '25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace. OUTLOOK '25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market. OUTLOOK '25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies. OUTLOOK '25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand. OUTLOOK '25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth. OUTLOOK '25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market. OUTLOOK '25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2 North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.
13-Jan-2025
Europe Outlook Stories 2025 Summary
LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. 2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY OUTLOOK ’25: Global fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start to 2025 The global fertilizer sector is bracing itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as it starts the year with high operating costs and struggling grain markets, making affordability for farmers and growers a key concern. OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected to drive the ammonia market in 2025 Ammonia players are expecting more supply to come onstream in 2025 which could support a subdued market. OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker closures to shake Europe naphtha market After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of supply dynamics, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical factors. OUTLOOK: 2025 will be critical to Europe pyrolysis oil scalability Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning times and macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively weigh on European pyrolysis oil market growth and investment decisions in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Jet fuel demand poised for take-off despite oversupply worries Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite a potential supply glut. However, much will depend on the airline industry's ability to navigate through economic and geopolitical turbulence and its commitment to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ethanol market could face supply challenges amid demand stability Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of several supply factors that is likely to shape the European ethanol market in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish blending rates Evolving supply factors are set to meet relatively stable-to-low demand in the European biodiesel market for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: More of the same for Europe ethylene, propylene The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024, European ethylene and propylene market players say, and there is very little expectation that Europe’s base case demand improves in any meaningful way in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ethanolamines market 2025 expectations subdued but braced for any supply shocks For 2025, similar underlying demand trends seen in the second half of 2024 are expected to carry across into the first half of 2025 with sentiment to remain broadly subdued. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PE faces triple threat of cost squeeze, overcapacity, longer supply chains European polyethylene (PE) markets face a triple whammy of high local costs, overcapacity globally and the risk of lengthening supply chains at a time when global trade flows are threatened by tariff wars in 2025 OUTLOOK ’25: Economic woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP demand Economic concerns continue to dampen demand expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Africa PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on oversupplied market Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) demand across Africa? OUTLOOK ’25: Positive view for European R-LDPE packaging grades, other sectors face tough start Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI) grades of recycled low density polyethylene (R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will continue to grow in 2025 but construction-related grades may suffer due to low end-use market demand. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide deepens The fragmentation between packaging and non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to continue in 2025, while consolidation risk across the market remains high – particularly for companies heavily exposed to the construction sector. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use demand Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use market across 2024, and this is expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PP players eye pain points from old plants, tariff threats and limp manufacturing 2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different for Europe's polypropylene (PP) market. OUTLOOK '25: Europe Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by mechanical recycling in 2025 Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain weak for as long as overall industrial production remains limited by macroeconomic headwinds. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN set for another year of confined demand Downstream demand constraints brought on by geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe's acrylonitrile (ACN) market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO demand pessimism to continue under the gloom of rising capacities in China There is a growing sense of apathy among players in the European butanediol (BDO) market when it comes to discussing demand hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations of an uptick and there is a prevalence of worry ahead of growing capacity in China in an already oversupplied market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR demand overshadowed by automotive challenges European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand could lift slightly in January on restocking activity, but there are still longer-term concerns over the timeline for recovery of the automotive industry. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ABS and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear as ABS ADD investigation begins Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024 in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) markets, as downstream sectors have continued to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and similar is expected to continue into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX market to see little demand recovery despite lower interest rates The European orthoxylene (OX) market is gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand, in particular from the second quarter onwards. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid downstream rationalizations, imports Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is expected to continue in the first half of 2025 due to the rationalization of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in the region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe CX, capro markets face stable, low demand in 2025 The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam (capro) markets face broadly stable but overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of optimism in key downstream sectors and ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions hit sentiment. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain subdued Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there are similar expectations for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe styrene market squeezed as imports climb, demand feeble The European styrene market is expected to face increased competition and complexity in 2025, requiring players to navigate fragile domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain demand outlook, and rising import volumes. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PS, EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS import competition Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS) market has faced stable demand at a low level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS) demand has been very weak, as ongoing pressures have continued to impact downstream activity in both markets, and 2025 could be similar. OUTLOOK '25: Europe benzene market limps into 2025 as supply surplus, demand uncertainty prevails The Europe benzene market is expected to see generally sufficient supply in the first half of 2025, with tightness likely only in the Mediterranean region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe toluene supply conditions to be in better shape than demand Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in good condition, with similar views for 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to survive The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain in Europe remains in survival mode as consumption is negatively affected by macroeconomics, while costs and logistics remain challenging. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-PET hopes for better year but challenges remain Participants across the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) comes into force in January, but cheap PET, imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and unpredictable consumer spending all pose potential problems. OUTLOOK ’25: European MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand expectations bearish European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply could be more balanced at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second on turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen expectations of a sustained market recovery. OUTLOOK '25: Low but steady demand expected in Europe nylon market Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face ongoing low but overall stable demand in 2025, as key downstream markets are in peril from persistently challenging macroeconomic conditions and low end-buyer demand. OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand may return to growth but unlikely to offset overcapacity The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025 after demand weakness in 2024, but this will be offset by excess global capacity and low utilization rates at existing plants. OUTLOOK 25’: Last caustic soda producer to sit down is out 2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali producers. OUTLOOK '25: Ample supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite import constraints, outages Weak demand was the most significant influence on European acetic acid and derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) conditions throughout 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe AA bracing for ‘more of the same’ for 2025 The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is bracing itself for “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe acrylate esters bracing for continued challenges in 2025 The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing for the challenges of 2024 to continue into 2025, with added geopolitical and economic volatility. OUTLOOK '25: Europe MMA set to see 2024 challenges continue into 2025 The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is bracing itself for the challenges seen in 2024 to continue into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing for stagnant market The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing. OUTLOOK '25: European phenol and acetone markets face demand stagnation and global capacity growth in 2025 Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand, logistics difficulties and volatile feedstocks will all challenge Europe's phenol and acetone markets in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: European refinery solvents to track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends unchanged In 2025, European refinery solvents markets will be pinned to the developments in upstream crude and energy sectors. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride consumption to remain stable in H1 Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe is projected to stay stable at a low level, as persistent challenges that plagued the market in 2024 are expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe EO demand expected to lift slightly in January European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions largely centred around stable-to-soft agreements, depending on starting point and account, at the end of 2024, even as demand is expected to increase in January. OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity expands in Europe MPG, PO markets Players in the European mono propylene glycol (MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO) markets expect familiar challenges, including oversupply and weak demand, will persist well into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe polyols and isocyanates demand recovery handicapped by sluggish downstream markets The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption, with 2025 being held back by slow momentum from major end user sectors. OUTLOOK '25: Slow start to 2025 expected in Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no significant supply concerns A subdued start is anticipated in the European market for propylene glycol ethers in 2025. Price changes are expected to continue to be led by availability fluctuations with few anticipating much demand recovery in the first half of the year and potentially beyond. OUTLOOK '25: Europe butyl glycol ethers market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus remains on availability The outlook for the European butyl glycol (BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a spate of planned maintenances scheduled for Q1, there is not significant supply concern in the main. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to navigate various challenges The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not likely to face an easy ride in terms of demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery in key end sectors, a few lost outlets structurally and with competition from Asia likely to remain strong. OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing, H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance growing European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to those in 2024, with a challenging macroeconomic environment expected to continue crippling demand for most of the year and complex supply scenarios with difficult logistics continuing. OUTLOOK '25: Europe melamine still in survival mode amid poor demand, high production costs European melamine suppliers remain pressured by high production costs and low margins heading into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe IPA and MEK supply to remain ample despite import constraints, capacity consolidation The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by muted consumption and ample availability for most of 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ECH supply rather than demand under the spotlight for 2025 Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather than demand is likely to be subject to more change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted trade flows in response to various trade defense cases and measures. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing high feedstock costs in H1 European oleochemicals face another challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty acids availability versus elevated feedstock costs. OUTLOOK '25: EU epoxy players on the cusp of a new normal, pending EU AD decision EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese and other Asian product, but the prospect of a recovery remains slim. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe paraffin wax market likely to see minimal demand recovery The forecast for European paraffin wax in 2025 is weak, particularly during the first half. The market is expected to face ongoing challenges like those experienced in 2024. OUTLOOK '25: EU ADD leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by weak demand The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any domestic support into 2025, despite profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry, as the underlying demand outlook remains bleak. OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back to health When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly leapt at the chance to move into the government-backed production of explosives, it served as a further confirmation of the deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer maker finds itself in.
13-Jan-2025
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