Butadiene and c4s

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 23 August 2024. INSIGHT: Asia BD capacity growth to accelerate to 10% in 2025 By Ann Sun 23-Aug-24 10:35 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian butadiene (BD) market is anticipated to experience large-scale capacity expansion between Q4 this year and end-2025, with nine projects scheduled to begin operations. Asia BDO market demand unable to reduce inventories, oversupply persists By Corey Chew 22-Aug-24 11:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market has been going through a downtrend that started about a month ago, mainly due to the falling domestic China market. INSIGHT: China's EVA capacity expected to exceed 2.6 million tonnes in 2024 By Amy Yu 20-Aug-24 17:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's EVA capacity is forecast to exceed 2.6 million tonnes in 2024, a year-on-year growth rate of 17%, considering Jiangsu Hongjing New Material a new plant with 200,000 tonnes/year is scheduled to come on stream in Q4. INSIGHT: China plasticizer alcohols' supply growth accelerating By Lina Xu 19-Aug-24 17:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's plasticizer market is diversifying, leading the supply expansion of feedstock alcohols amid high requirements for end-products and growing emphasis on sustainability in operations in recent years. Asia naphtha back in the black within a day; volatility to stay By Li Peng Seng 19-Aug-24 11:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's naphtha intermonth spread returned to the positive zone on 16 August, after slipping into the red the day before for the first time this year, with volatile trades expected to persist amid uncertainties over supply balances. INSIGHT: China’s MEG export market changes amid volatile global fundamentals By Cindy Qiu 22-Aug-24 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) exports have been on an uptrend in recent years due to the rapid expansion of domestic capacity. MEG exports totalled around 93,000 tonnes in January-June 2024 and are expected to exceed 150,000 tonnes for the year as a whole. India’s BPCL to invest Rs1.7 trillion on capacity growth over five years By Priya Jestin 20-Aug-24 12:58 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) plans to invest rupee (Rs) 1.7 trillion ($20.3 billion) over the next five years to grow its refining and fuel marketing business, as well as expand its petrochemicals and green energy businesses.

26-Aug-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Crude benchmarks are likely to be subject to bearish pressure in week 34 as Chinese oil demand concerns take centre stage. However, European and US economic data released later this week may provide clues to future monetary policy decisions and provide hope for upcoming interest rate cuts. ICIS experts look at factors that are forecast to drive oil prices in Week 34.

20-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producers Hanwha Total Energies and Yeochon NCC are withdrawing their request for an antidumping probe on styrene monomer (SM) imports from China, based on a petition they filed with the Korea Trade Commission on 12 August. The probe, which was initiated upon requests from Korean producers, has been ongoing since 9 April and was supposed to end on 8 September. This petition withdrawal by the two companies is likely to conclude the four-month ADD investigation which have triggered significant concerns of Asian market players on a potential change in intra-Asia SM trade landscape since South Korea is China’s biggest export market for SM. Expectations heightened in June that Korea will launch antidumping duties (ADDs) on China-origin SM after China extended its five-year ADDs on SM imports from three origins, including Korea. KTC had held discussions and hearings in June to determine whether Chinese SM imports are causing material damage to Korea’s domestic market. China is no longer a regular importer of Korean SM, but some market players were expecting China’s ADD extension could trigger retaliations by Korea as a political countermeasure. Korea’s probe on SM imports from China has faced strong opposition from local end-users in downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) industry which rely on feedstock from China to run their plants. During the period of June 2023 to June 2024, South Korea accounted for around 74% of China's total SM exports, according to ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Although Chinese cargoes are no longer expected to be subject to Korean ADDs in near term, high logistics costs and elevated domestic spot prices in China could continue to hamper China-Korea SM talks. Some Chinese suppliers may also continue searching for alternative markets to diversify their sales portfolio. Focus article by Luffy Wu Thumbnail image: At Taicang Port in China on 12 January 2024.(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

14-Aug-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to beef up its petrochemical production capacity to 14m tonnes/year by 2030 which will increase the state-owned company’s petrochemical intensity index (PII) to 15%, nearly triple its current level, company chair SM Vaidya said. Total petrochemical investments to reach Rs1.2 trillion Domestic industry projected to grow at 8-10% over the next few years Local demand estimated to hit $1 trillion by 2040 Petrochemical projects worth Indian rupees (Rs) 300 billion ($3.6 billion) are under various stages of implementation, while feasibility studies are ongoing on projects worth Rs900 billion, based on IOC’s annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. The company’s current petrochemical production capacity stands at 4.28 million tonnes/year, based on its annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. IOC’s PII refers to the percentage of crude oil that is directly converted into chemicals. “We are integrating petrochemicals into our refining operations," IOC chairman SM Vaidya said at the company’s annual general meeting on 9 August. "This oil-to-chemical approach will enrich our value chain, meet rising petrochemical demand, reduce import reliance, and insulate the bottom line from the impacts of oil price fluctuations," he said. By 2026, its refining capacity will have increased by more than 25% from the current 70.3 million tonnes/year to 87.9 million tonnes/year, Vaidya said at  IOC’s annual general meeting on 9 August. By the end of the decade, IOC expects its refining capacity to be 107.4 million tonnes/year, according to the annual report released on 18 July. “In 2023-24, we successfully commissioned the first phase of naphtha cracker expansion and paraxylene-purified terephthalic acid (PX-PTA) revamp project in Panipat and an ethylene glycol plant at Paradip. These have propelled our PII to 6.1%,” Vaidya said. In November 2023, IOC increased the capacity at the naphtha cracker at its Panipat refinery complex from 857,000 tonnes/year to 947,000 tonnes/year. Following the PX-PTA revamp at its Panipat refinery, IOC has increased its PX production to 460,000 tonnes/year and PTA output to 700,000 tonnes/year, as per the company website. In March 2024, the company inaugurated its 357,000 tonne/year monoethylene glycol (MEG) project at its Paradip refinery complex. PETROCHEMICAL PROJECT PIPELINE Indian Oil plans to commission a 150,000 tonne/year butyl acrylate plant at its Gujarat refinery in the current financial year 2024-25. One of the company’s ambitious petrochemical projects include the mega complex at Paradip in eastern Odisha state, Vaidya said, noting that the Rs610 billion project is IOC’s “largest ever investment at a single location”. The petrochemical complex will include a world-scale 1.5 milion tonne/year naphtha cracker unit along with downstream process units for producing polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE), linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The Paradip petrochemical project is currently in implementation stage and the company expects to commission it by August 2029, IOC said in its annual report released on 18 July. As part of its future expansions, IOC expects to begin operations at the 200,000 tonne/year PP plant at its Barauni refinery and 500,000 tonne/year PP line at its Gujarat refinery before end-March 2026, based on the company’s annual report. IOC has also enhanced its lube oil base stocks (LOBS) capacity at its Haldia complex and is setting up new plants at its Gujarat and Panipat refineries, Vaidya said, adding, “we aim to increase the capacity from 730,000 tonnes/year to 1.5 million tonnes/year”. The company expects to commission the 60,000 tonnes/year polybutadiene rubber (PBR) plant at its Panipat refinery by March 2025 as per the annual report. These planned expansions by IOC will help meet the rising petrochemical demand in the country, IOC stated in its latest annual report. The domestic petrochemical industry is "poised for substantial growth, driven by India’s sturdy macro fundamentals, population expansion and presently low per capita polymer consumption," it said. India's overall petrochemical demand is projected to nearly triple by 2040, with the industry's value expected to reach the $1 trillion mark, said Indian minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Pur in a presentation at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in May 2023. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.91) Thumbnail image: An Indian Oil petrol pump in Kolkata, 17 January 2022. (By Indranil Aditya/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

14-Aug-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to remain extremely active, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday in an update to its previous forecast. The only change to the previous forecast, which predicted the greatest number of hurricanes in the agency’s history, was a slight reduction in the number of named storms, from 17-25 to 17-24. A storm is named once it has sustained winds of 39 miles/h (63 km/h). “The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.” Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result, NOAA said. There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season in 2024 and a negligible chance of a below-normal season. Forecasters said the Atlantic Ocean basin is expected to be remarkably active due to several factors: Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Reduced vertical wind shear. Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds. An enhanced west African monsoon. These conditions are expected to continue into the fall, NOAA said. Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August. Another factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the coming months. Hurricanes and tropical storms can disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation's plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. The updated hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Weather and Climate Research department also predicted an extremely active season, expecting 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through 30 November. See the Beryl and Gaemi: Impact on Chemicals topic page

08-Aug-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) maintained their forecast of an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season but slightly reduced the number of named storms they expect to see. The forecasters at CSU still expect 12 storms to reach hurricane strength this season, with six of them expected to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher. A Category 3 storm is one with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles/hour or faster. The only change from the July update is the expectations of 23 named storms, down from 25. Hurricanes Beryl and Debby, as well as tropical storms Alberto and Chris are included in the current forecast. Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Texas Coast on 8 July and caused damage that led to several declarations of force majeure (FM) and multiple outages across petrochemical complexes and major hubs of production along the US Gulf Coast. Hurricane Debby made landfall on 5 August in northwestern Florida and weakened into a tropical storm before creeping slowly across Georgia and back into the Atlantic Ocean, where it was hovering near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. It is expected to make a second landfall in the Carolinas and then continue up the Eastern Seaboard. Terminals at the Port of Savannah were closed on Tuesday, but officials anticipate reopening on Wednesday once the US Coast Guard completes its waterway inspection and offshore wind analysis. The South Caroline Ports Authority is operating normal gate hours on Tuesday and will shift to reduced hours on Wednesday. Forecasters at AccuWeather are warning about extreme flooding risk in the next 72 hours from Debby with 2 feet of rainfall expected in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. IMPACT ON CHEMICAL PRODUCTION Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation's plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. IMPACT ON RECYCLING Severe weather, including tropical storms, heavy rain and winter weather, can easily disrupt curbside and deposit collection efforts, thus limiting the incoming supply of polyethyelene terephthlate (PET) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles for recycling. If collection efforts are delayed, in some cases, material will be routed to landfill, as material recovery facilities (MRFs) have limits on input processing abilities and are unable to catch up. Additionally, MRFs must often dry out wet mixed recyclable material to optimize the sorting process, which can further delay processing.

06-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–SABIC has signed a potential investment agreement with the Fujian government on 1 August to build an engineering thermoplastics compounding plant in the Chinese province, the Saudi Arabia chemicals giant said on Tuesday. The planned compounding plant will be located in the Gulei Port Economic Development Zone at Zhangzhou in Fujian, it said in a statement without disclosing capacity details. It will primarily produce SABIC's pelletized LEXAN polycarbonate (PC) and CYCOLOY PC/acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) polymer blend for use in advanced materials. These materials will be tailored to the needs of industries including electrical and consumer electronics, automotive, and emerging sectors such as solar energy, electrification, and 5G. The site will include compounding lines, color development capabilities, and advanced equipment. SABIC currently operates a technology center in Shanghai and three compounding plants in China in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chongqing. The new plant is also expected to create synergies with SABIC’s two existing joint ventures – SINOPEC SABIC Tianjin Petrochemical Co (SSTPC) and SABIC FUJIAN Petrochemicals Co (SFPC). “This investment agreement marks another significant milestone for SABIC’s growth in China and reflects our continued confidence in investing in the country," said Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, SABIC's CEO. "Building on this, we will continue to collaborate with our existing global and local partners and customers to grow together in China.”

06-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Soaring Asian styrene prices have grabbed the attention of the global market following unexpected outages at European facilities. This price surge is expected to support both upstream benzene prices as well as downstream prices of expanded polystyrene (EPS), polystyrene (PS), and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS). Two styrene plant outages in Europe drive price surge upward rapidly. Benzene prices rise with styrene, boosted by August demand growth. ICIS expects EPS and PS prices to rise in August, ABS prices to remain flat due to the butadiene prices decreasing. In this podcast, ICIS senior analysts Jenny Yi and Jimmy Zhang discuss the trends and outlook for the Asian styrenic and benzene markets.

06-Aug-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shares of US-listed chemical companies fell sharply for the third consecutive trading day on Monday amid growing concerns that the US economy could head towards a hard landing and enter a recession. The following table shows the major indices followed by ICIS. Index 5-Aug Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 38,703.27 -1,033.99 -2.60% S&P 500 5,186.33 -160.23 -3.00% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 860.73 -19.78 -2.25% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 897.91 -19.43 -2.12% Other market indicators also showed distress. The volatility index (VIX) rose by more than 43% to 33.57, reaching its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the financial news network CNBC. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.8%, its lowest level in more than a year. Brent crude oil futures fell farther below $80/barrel. Natural gas futures fell farther below $2/MMBtu. Earlier on Monday, stocks in Asia and Europe were also sharply down, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 posting exceptionally steep losses. The financial press concentrated on Japan and highlighted what is known as the carry trade. Under it, investors took advantage of low interest rates in Japan to fund purchases of riskier investments such as US stocks. The strategy backfired after the Bank of Japan started raising interest rates. CHEM STOCKS PUMMELED IN PAST THREE DAYSThe total losses during the three-day stretch are much worse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have fallen by more than 5% since then. Chemical producers have warned that their performance will get no help from the economy during the second half of the year. They gave up on a recovery, and some pointed to weakness among consumers, particularly those that perform do-it-yourself (DIY) projects on their homes, a segment that is especially sensitive to cost. Other chemical producers either missed their second quarter guidance, lowered their full year guidance or both. Since then, US economic statistics have shown more weakening than what was expected in the market. The US added fewer jobs in July than most economists expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in July, with the purchasing managers' index (PMI) falling faster than expected. June construction spending fell 0.3% from May. Despite the pessimistic economic news, there were some statistics and trends that were not as poor. The collapse of the 10-year yield on Treasury notes indicates that the Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark federal funds rate too high for too long. That increases the likelihood that the central bank could lower rates at a faster pace. They could fall by half a point during its next scheduled meeting in September, and subsequent cuts could take place in November and December. Meanwhile, following a contraction in June, the US service sector expanded in July, according to the services PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Services make up 7/8 of the US economy. The following table shows the US-listed chemical shares followed by ICIS. Symbol Name $ Current Price $ Change % Change ASIX AdvanSix 24.74 -2.52 -9.24% AVNT Avient 40.395 -2.435 -5.69% AXTA Axalta Coating Systems 33.84 -1.37 -3.89% BAK Braskem 5.45 -0.33 -5.71% CC Chemours 18.565 -1.975 -9.62% CE Celanese 125.73 -5.82 -4.42% DD DuPont 77.15 -1.97 -2.49% DOW Dow 50.52 -1.49 -2.86% EMN Eastman 94.16 -3.33 -3.42% FUL HB Fuller 77.3 -3.92 -4.83% HUN Huntsman 21.27 -1.21 -5.38% KRO Kronos Worldwide 10.2 -0.64 -5.90% LYB LyondellBasell 91.93 -2.46 -2.61% MEOH Methanex 40.22 -2.81 -6.53% NEU NewMarket 530.05 -20.86 -3.79% NGVT Ingevity 35.52 -5.68 -13.79% OLN Olin 40.835 -2.135 -4.97% PPG PPG 120.02 -3.44 -2.79% RPM RPM International 114.305 -3.465 -2.94% SCL Stepan 73.33 -4.73 -6.06% SHW Sherwin-Williams 340.505 -6.745 -1.94% TROX Tronox 12.69 -0.62 -4.66% TSE Trinseo 2.375 -0.215 -8.30% WLK Westlake 132.31 -4.75 -3.47% Focus article by Al Greenwood (recast with closing prices for indices and shares) Additional reporting by Jonathan Lopez Thumbnail image shows a stock exchange. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock Please also visit Macroeconomics: Impact on Chemicals

05-Aug-2024

MADRID (ICIS)–US stocks were trading down around 3% mid-morning on Monday, with the major chemical companies posting double-digit falls on growing fears about a recession after the world’s largest economy reported weak economic data. Falls in the main stocks, however, had moderated by mid-morning although major individual names were still seeing large losses. The following shows the performance of the major stock indices followed by ICIS. Index 5 August Change % Dow Jones Industrial Average 38,629.93 1,107.33 2.79% S&P 500 5,171.95 174.61 3.27% Dow Jones US Chemicals Index 858.78 21.73 2.47% S&P 500 Chemicals Industry Index 896.31 21.03 2.29% Individual names in the US chemical sector were seeing double-digit losses – Trinseo, Ingevity and Chemours – with majors such as Dow and DuPont down around 3% (See table below). Earlier on Monday, stocks in Asia – with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 posting its largest ever loss – and Europe were also sharply down. Crude prices also took a hit with the international Brent benchmark down more than $1/barrel to $75.74/barrel. MANUFACTRING DOWNTURN, WIDER WOES |A recession will hit the US beleaguered manufacturing sector further – after more than a year in the doldrums compounded by weak data in July. Employment data last week revealed lower-than-expected job growth and higher unemployment, sparking alarm among global investors about the health of the US economy. The equity market reaction on Monday was brutal in Asia, but was less pronounced in Europe and in the Americas. The slowing fall in some US indices on Monday could be linked to the much-awaited services PMI index for July, which showed that the sector is still expanding. “Economic activity in the services sector expanded in July, a trend that has been interrupted only three times — though twice in the last four months — since early in the coronavirus pandemic,” said the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which compiles the index. “The services PMI registered 51.4%, indicating sector expansion for the 47th time in 50 months.” Any reading above 50% suggests that the sector is in expansion. Analysts are questioning whether the market reaction had been overblown, with some linking it to possible wild speculative moves in August when market activity slows sharply. “Weak payrolls [have] really escalated a profound move across the globe. However, the reality is that although payrolls was disappointing it's hard to know how disappointing given the distortions from Hurricane Beryl. It's like the market has added up 2+2 and made nine,” said Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of economic research. “It's easily possible we'll get the additional three and two to make up the total but we're certainly not there yet. It's hard to believe such market moves would have occurred in any other month.” Symbol Name Price Change Change % ASIX AdvanSix 24.66 -2.60 -9.54% AVNT Avient 40.29 -2.54 -5.93% AXTA Axalta Coating Systems 33.645 -1.565 -4.44% BAK Braskem 5.435 -0.345 -5.97% CC Chemours 18.53 -2.01 -9.79% CE Celanese 125.31 -6.24 -4.74% DD DuPont 76.75 -2.37 -3.00% DOW Dow 50.56 -1.45 -2.79% EMN Eastman 93.74 -3.75 -3.85% FUL HB Fuller 77.225 -3.995 -4.92% HUN Huntsman 21.29 -1.19 -5.29% KRO Kronos Worldwide 10.28 -0.56 -5.17% LYB LyondellBasell 92.42 -1.97 -2.09% MEOH Methanex 40.29 -2.74 -6.37% NEU NewMarket 528.67 -22.24 -4.04% NGVT Ingevity 35.375 -5.825 -14.14% OLN Olin 40.785 -2.185 -5.08% PPG PPG 119.18 -4.28 -3.47% RPM RPM International 114.03 -3.74 -3.18% SCL Stepan 73.385 -4.675 -5.99% SHW Sherwin-Williams 338.27 -8.98 -2.59% TROX Tronox 12.65 -0.66 -4.96% TSE Trinseo 2.29 -0.30 -11.58% WLK Westlake 131.42 -5.64 -4.11% Front page picture: A stock exchange in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China; archive image Source: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

05-Aug-2024