Polypropylene (PP)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Conventional wisdom suggests that the petrochemicals cycle may have bottomed out as the prospects of interest rate cuts increase. There are signs of recovery in the Europe. And even in a high inflationary environment, the US consumer kept on spending with unemployment at record lows. This, in my view, is a misreading of the data. Because of the disproportionate influence of China, what happens elsewhere doesn't really matter in the short- to medium-term. China had a 22% share of the global population in 1992 and a 9% share of global polymers demand. By the end of this year, ICIS forecasts that China’s share of the global population will have slipped to 18%, but its share of global polymers demand will have risen to 40%. Too much global capacity was planned on the basis of China’s petrochemicals demand growth being at 6-8% per annum over the long term, whereas 1-4% now appears to be more likely. China’s petrochemicals capacity growth was underestimated because of cost-per-tonne economics used to assess projects. History teaches us is that national strategic objective also come into play. One can argue, as the Rhodium Group does in an 18 July 2024 research paper, that China’s economic growth may never return to previous levels. This would mean no return to the double-digit annual growth rates we saw in petrochemicals demand during the Petrochemicals Supercycle. In today’s main chart, I kept to our base case assumptions on global polypropylene (PP) virgin production growth between 2024 and 2030, which is almost the same as demand growth. I then manually reduced capacity growth until I got back to the historically very healthy operating rate of 87% (operating rates being production divided by capacity). (What applies to PP applies to other petrochemicals and polymers. The ICIS data for other products suggest similar steep reductions in capacity growth versus our base to get back to the long-term history of operating rates). This led me to the conclusion that global PP capacity growth would need to be just 1.6m tonnes a year versus 5m tonnes a year under our base case. Under our base case, we see global operating rates averaging just 76% in 2024-2030. Capacity growth of just 1.6m tonnes a year versus our base case would require substantial capacity closures in some regions. Closures are never easy and take considerable time because links with upstream refineries, environmental clean-up and redundancy costs – and the reluctance to be the “first plant out” in case markets suddenly recover. The sale of rationalisation suggested by just 1.6m tonnes a year of capacity growth therefore suggests no full recovery in PP and in other petrochemicals until, I am guessing, 2026. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

23-Jul-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 19 July. NEWS Braskem Idesa ethane supply more stable, PE prices to recover in H2 2025 – exec Supply of ethane from Pemex to polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa is now more stable after a renegotiation of the contract – but the global PE market remains in the doldrums, according to an executive at the Mexican firm. INSIGHT: Colombia’s wide single-use plastics ban kicks off amid industry reluctance Colombia’s single-use plastic ban, which affects a wide range of products, kicks off amid some industry reluctance after a hurried implementation, and with provisions to revise the legislation after a one year trial period. Brazil’s chemicals capacity utilization falls to record low in May at 58% The utilization rate at Brazil's chemical plants fell to 58% in May, the lowest level since records began in 1990, the country’s chemicals trade group Abiquim said on Wednesday. Brazil’s floods hit GDP growth in 2024 but strong recovery in 2025 – IMF The IMF has revised Brazil’s economic outlook for 2024, with GDP growth now forecast at 2.1%, down from an earlier projection of 2.2%, because of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul. Mota-Engil, PEMEX agree to build new ammonia, urea and AdBlue plant in Mexico Mota-Engil, through its subsidiary MOTA-ENGIL MEXICO, has signed an agreement with Pemex Transformación Industrial, a subsidiary of state-owned energy major Petróleos Mexicanos (“PEMEX”), to construct a fertilizer plant in Escolin in the state of Vera Cruz. Harvest Minerals undertakes rare earth elements exploration at Brazil fertilizer project Fertilizer producer Harvest Minerals announced a two-phase rare earth elements exploration program has commenced at its Arapua project in Brazil. Stolthaven Terminals chosen as potential operator for Brazil green ammonia export terminal Logistics firm Stolthaven Terminals announced that in cooperation with Global Energy Storage (GES), it has been selected as the only potential operator to design, build and operate a green ammonia terminal in Brazil to be located within the industrial export zone at Pecem in the state of Ceara. Silver Valley Metals selling Idaho project to refocus on Mexico lithium and SOP project Brownfield exploration company Silver Valley Metals announced it has signed an asset purchase agreement for the Ranger-Page project in Idaho which will allow it to refocus efforts at its lithium and potash project in central Mexico. BHP enters into further agreement with Vale over 2015 Brazil dam failure BHP announced it has entered into an agreement with Vale regarding group action proceedings in the UK in respect of the Fundao Dam failure in Brazil which occurred in 2015. PRICING Lat Am PE international prices stable to up on higher US export offers International polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to higher across Latin American countries on the back of higher US export offers. PP domestic prices fall in Argentina on sluggish demand, ample supply Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed lower in Argentina on the back of sluggish demand and ample supply. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged. US Gulf sees PVC price decline, Latin America stays stable Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in Brazil has shown fluctuations from weak-to-stable this July, accompanied by sufficient supply. Although market prices have stabilized, local prices continue to face pressure following a recent price drop in the US Gulf market.

22-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business posted a 14.3% year-on-year drop in earnings in its fiscal first quarter ending June 2024 on poor chemicals margins, the Indian conglomerate said. O2C results in 10 million rupees (Rs) Apr-June 2024 Apr-June 2023 % Change Revenue 157,133 133,031 18.1 EBITDA 13,093 15,286 -14.3 Exports 71,463 69,006 3.6 – Revenue for the period rose primarily on the back of higher product prices in line with Brent crude price gains, and increased volumes due to strong domestic demand, the company said on 19 July. – Fiscal Q1 overall earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin dropped to 8.3% from 11.5% in the same period of last year. – On a year-on-year basis, April-June domestic polymer and polyester demand increased by 8% and 5%, respectively. – RIL's consolidated group profit after tax fell by 4% year on year to Rp175 billion ($2.09 billion) in April-June 2024. Polymers- Fiscal Q1 polymer margins were down by 0.5% to 16.9% year on year due to firm naphtha prices. Product margin over naphtha April-June 2024 ($/tonne) April-June 2023 ($/tonne) % Change Polyethylene (PE) 330 397 -16.9% Polypropylene (PP) 318 381 -16.5% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 371 373 -0.5% Polyester – Paraxylene (PX) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins over naphtha decreased year on year due to higher naphtha prices. – "PTA [purified terephthalic acid] margins were impacted adversely due to high inventory with Chinese producers and increased competition," the company said. – On a year-on-year basis, domestic polyester demand in fiscal Q1 increased by 5%, driven by strong growth in PET, which was up 27% due to "higher demand from the beverage segment on account of summer season and elections". ($1 = Rs83.7)

22-Jul-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global shipping container rates edged slightly higher this week as they continue to moderate after more than doubling from early-May, and rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast fell, according to supply chain advisors Drewry. Drewry’s composite World Container Index (WCI) rose by just 1% and is up by just 1.2% over the past two week, as shown in the following chart. Average rates from China to the US East Coast have continued to rise and are nearing $10,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects ex-China rates to hold steady next week and remain high throughout the peak season. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed similar rates of increase. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, in noting the slower rate of increase also pointed to signs that prices may have already peaked. “Daily rates so far this week are ticking lower and major carriers have not announced surcharge increases for later this month or August,” Levine said. Levine said peak season likely started early this year as retailers ordered early to beat possible labor issues at US Gulf and East Coast ports and as consumers continued to spend on goods. Emily Stausboll, senior shipping analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said she is seeing some carriers already lowering spot rates. “This suggests a growing level of available capacity in the market and shippers can once again start to play carriers off against each other – instead of feeling they need to pay whatever price they are offered to secure space. As the balance of negotiating power starts to swing back towards shippers, we should see spot rates start to come back down,” Stausboll said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. VOLUMES SHIFT TO WEST COAST The Port of Los Angeles saw a 10% increase from the previous month and a slight increase year on year in volumes, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles said. Some retailers are rushing to import volumes ahead of the US presidential election in November as Republican nominee Donald Trump has proposed hiking tariffs, especially on goods from China. But a persistently strong economy is also supporting the rise in imports. “The US economy continues to be the primary driver of our cargo volume and I expect to see that continue in the months ahead,” Seroka said. Many importers shifted their deliveries to the US East Coast in 2022 when congestion at West Coast ports surged amid strong consumer demand coming out of the pandemic. The shift in volumes from the East Coast has not led to any congestions at the West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC). “Vessels and cargo arriving, departing, and shifting around the ports of LA and LB and continue to move normally with no labor delays and ample labor,” MESC executive director Kip Louttit said. Louttit also said the forecast for arriving container ships over the next two weeks is trending higher. LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf were stable to softer this week, with decreases seen on the USG-Asia and USG-Brazil trade lanes. From the USG to Asia, there has still been interest in large cargoes, but volumes overall have been slowing down. The absence of market participants has caused freight rates to stumble some, with more downward pressure on smaller parcels due to the small pockets of space readily available. From the USG to Brazil, the list of ships open in the USG continues to grow, with space still available which could lead to continued downward pressure and even lower rates. Activity typically picks up during summer months, but this is not currently being seen. PANAMA CANAL The Panama Canal will limit transits from 3-4 August because of planned maintenance. The east lane of the Miraflores locks will be out of service for concrete maintenance on the east approach wall, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said. The PCA began limiting transits in July 2023 because of low water levels in Gatun Lake caused by an extended drought. Restrictions have gradually eased over the past few months and are approaching the average daily transits of 36-38/day seen prior to impacts from the drought. The improved conditions at the canal are likely to improve transit times for vessels traveling between the US Gulf and Asia, as well as between Europe and west coast Latin America countries. This should benefit chemical markets that move product between regions. Wait times for non-booked southbound vessels ready for transit have been relatively steady at less than two days, according to the PCA vessel tracker. Wait times were less than a day for northbound vessels and less than two days for southbound traffic. Focus article by Adam Yanelli With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page.

19-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe’s run up to holiday season has been unusually busy for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets, including some spot prices reversing for the first time since March 2024. In this ICIS podcast, European PE and PP senior editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake pick out July’s big themes, from logistics (hurricane Beryl and still-spiked Asian freight rates) to the mismatch between how local suppliers and converters are experiencing demand this month. They also highlight what to watch for August. Editing by Damini Dabholkar

18-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Understanding what was going to happen to petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy as all you had to do was read the state-run press. I am referring to comments in the local media way back in 2014 that China was going to push much harder towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency. This helps explain why in products such as polypropylene (PP), China’s percentages of capacity over demand could this year exceed 100%. But conversations with industry sources indicate that interpreting what will happen next to China’s capacity growth has become way more complex. Let’s start with the decision to cap China’s refinery capacity at some 1 billion tonnes a year from 2027 onwards up to at least 2040. This is a huge change from 2000-2026 when capacity is forecast to increase by more than 250%. The reason for the cap on refinery capacity is that China wants 40% of its car fleet to comprise electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. It also wants all new car sales to be EVs by that year. At first glance, this indicates that China won’t have sufficient local petrochemicals feedstock to maintain its aggressive self-sufficiency push. One could thus reach the conclusion that deficits or imports will rise given the weaker economics of importing feedstocks. But local refineries may be turned into petrochemicals feedstock centers. As local transportation fuels demand declines, maintaining good refinery operating rates may hinge on China’s ability to export increasing quantities of gasoline and diesel which in a world of increasing trade tensions may be difficult. I had thought that China’s push towards peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 would make it difficult to get approval for heavy industrial projects for start-up after 2030. Now, though, I’ve been told that the push to reduce carbon emissions is already making it hard to win approvals. Each province in China has reportedly been given a carbon budget. If a province wants to make room in its budget for a heavy industrial project, it might have to shut down an existing plant. Combine this with the small scale of some petrochemicals plants in China and we will or already are seeing closures of older plants to make way for new facilities, I’ve been told. This especially applies to the more developed provinces with high carbon output. If all of this is true, do not assume that this is automatically good news for all petrochemicals exporters to China because of the demographic-driven demand slowdown, China’s sustainability push and the country’s closer relationship with Saudi Arabia. As I’ve been stressing over the last three years, events in China point to a much more confused and blurred picture. Don’t panic and embrace confusion as this is the only sensible response. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

16-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: China's polypropylene (PP) exports in 2024, based on the January-May trends, could reach 2.6m tonnes. That would be double the level of 2023. And as exports surge, China’s self-sufficiency in PP looks set to see a similar dramatic increase. As recently as 2019, China’s PP net imports (imports minus exports) totalled 4.8m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 again continued, we would see full-year net imports of just 900,000 tonnes. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. In September 2021, the blog started to flag up the declines in Chinese PP demand growth combined with the surge in local capacity that created the very real prospect of China becoming a net exporter. And don’t assume that if China’s exports won’t remain in lower value homopolymer grades. China is said to be tripling its number of grades as it broadens its licensing of technologies. But in this ever-more muddle world, now that the Petrochemicals Supercycle is over, what is described above is just one scenario. In the short term, rising container freight rates might limit Chinese exports over the next few months. Or at the very least, we could see China’s exports focused more on southeast Asia because of higher freight rates to other destinations such as south Asia, South America and Africa. Another feature of a PP world turned upside down is that since 2020, China’s PP exports have been sent to a far wider range of destinations. We must also consider the impact of rising protectionism on China’s exports both in the short -and long-term. Confused? You should be, as this is the only sensible response. How do we see through the muddle? What recent history teaches us is that to understand petrochemicals markets, you must follow debts, demographics and geopolitics. Equally important, now that the Petrochemical Supercycle is over, are the effects of sustainability and climate change on demand and trade flows. The old ways of looking at markets no longer work. In the absence of a 100% accurate crystal ball, and with all these variables in play, the only sensible approach is broader and deeper scenario planning. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

05-Jul-2024

RIO DE JANEIRO (ICIS)–Brazil’s polymers major Braskem is still facing some logistical challenges at its facilities in Triunfo, in the floods-hit state of Rio Grande do Sul, according to a letter to customers seen by ICIS. Braskem was forced to shut down its Triunfo facilities after the severe flooding which affected the state in May. By the beginning of June, the producer said it hoped its operations would return to normality in a few days, according to a spokesperson in a written response to ICIS. However, according to the letter to customers, dated 28 June, Braskem’s operations at Triunfo are yet to return to normality, mostly due to logistical woes as many roads and key port operations at the Brazilian state were hit by the aftermath of the floods. “Specific challenges resulting from force majeure still persist in some logistics modes, leading to the partial receipt of inputs for the production of products derived from ethanol and green ethylene,” said the letter. “At the moment, there is no risk of interruption in the supply of these products, and we are implementing alternatives to return availability to normal levels.” At the end of June, an analyst said to ICIS most of the roads in Rio do Grande do Sul had reopened, although some of them were operating at reduced capacity. The Port of Porto Alegre, the largest city in the state and close to the Triunfo petrochemicals hub, only reopened in mid-June. TRIUNFO KEY FOR PLASTICS Braskem is Brazil’s sole manufacturer of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), the most widely used polymers. Its market share in 2023 for PE stood at 56% and for PP at 70%, according to figures from the ICIS Supply & Demand database. The Triunfo complex, meanwhile, is key for the country’s polymers supply chain, accounting for nearly 37% of Brazil’s PP capacity and 40% of PE capacity. Brazil’s total PP production capacity is nearly 2 million tonnes/year. PE capacity is about 3 million tonnes/year, with 41% being high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 33% being linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and 26% being low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Braskem’s Triunfo complex can produce 740,000 tonnes/year of PP, 550,000 tonnes/year of HDPE, 385,000 tonnes/year of LDPE and 300,000 tonnes/year of LLDPE. Additional reporting by Jonathan Lopez 

03-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. China’s petrochemical markets might well respond positively to any new economic stimulus measures announced during the delayed Third Plenum government meeting that takes place on 15-18 July. But the scale of economic reforms required are such that I believe the more likely outcome is China remaining stuck with lower growth than during the 1992-2021 Petrochemicals Supercycle. Sourabh Gupta – Senior Fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, DC – wrote in an article for the East Asia Forum that reforms needed include: Progressively lifting Hukou restrictions to make public services more equitable. Building a unified and portable social security net more in line with advanced economies. A shift from indirect to direct taxes. Individual income tax revenues comprised 33% of total revenues in OECD countries compared to 9% in China. The tax base must expand as four out of five Chinese households do not pay personal income tax. He cautioned that reform would not be easy in a country that preferred top-down capital-intensive approaches and was disdainful of high welfare spending. China appears to have doubled-down on its capital-intensive approach since the end of the property bubble through investing in export-focused manufacturing. This raises the issue of geopolitical threats to its GDP growth, such as the US and the EU recently raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and batteries. “If China is to maintain growth rates of 4-5% per year, it can only do so if the rest of the world agrees to reduce its own investment and manufacturing levels to less than half the Chinese level” wrote Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University, in an article for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The Economist reported that as reshoring accelerated, governments had adopted over 1,500 policies to promote specific industries in both 2021 and 2022. This compared with almost none in the early 2010s. But this latest Third Plenum could be as significant as the ones cited by Reuters in 1978 and 1993. The 1978 Plenum opened China up to foreign investment. In 1993, the Plenum liberalised trading in the Yuan and launched “socialist market” reforms following Deng Xiaoping’s Southern Tour a year earlier. How will we know the outcomes? If China’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) price spreads return to their Supercycle levels over the six-to-12-months.  If this doesn’t happen, more reforms will be needed as too much supply will continue to chase too little demand. Despite recent rebounds in spreads, China CFR high-density PE (HDPE) spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs remain 116% lower than during the Supercycle with low-density (LDPE) spreads 46% lower and linear-low density (LLDPE) spreads 80% lower. The story is very similar in China PP spreads over naphtha. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

03-Jul-2024

RIO DE JANEIRO (ICIS)–In just a few years, global automotive majors have switched their focus from an all-electric production to a more hybrid model, an executive at US crude oil major Chevron said on Tuesday. Chris Castanien, global industry liaison at Chevron and lubricant additive expert, said that most automotive majors who had set up targets to go all-electric or nearly all-electric by 2030 have dropped those plans as intake among consumers remains slow. This has happened even after authorities in North America or Europe have poured “tremendous amounts of money in trying to force everyone” into the energy transition. Castanien was speaking to delegates at the 14th International Summit with the South American Market 2024 organized by specialized publication Lubes em Focus, which focuses on base oils. ICIS is a partner in the event. BILLIONS – BUT THE JUMP IS NOT HAPPENINGAnyone in the lubricants industry would be pleased to see the initially quick transition to electric mobility some authorities had planned is not happening. At the end of the day, they are an interested party which would lose out much if ICE engines – combustion engines – went out of the market. Therefore, Castanien was somehow pleased to list the many plans in the EU and the US which had planned for a quick electric vehicles (EVs) implementation, including the US’ $1 trillion New Green Deal in 2021 or the consequent $67 billion investments contemplated in the CHIPS Act or the $369 billion of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). “The US’ EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] had forced a ruling that by 2032 around two thirds of cars should be EVs; the EU issued a ban on ICE engines by 2035 – well, I think those targets will not happen,” said Catanien. “Moreover, now we are seeing a lot of protectionist tariffs against Chinese EVs: we want people to make and use EVs, but we don’t want the Chinese to make them.” The Chevron executive went on to say that the US is still a “long way” to meet its own targets on charging points, for instance, which, added to the considerably higher cost of EVs, would be putting off consumers. And this consumers’ reluctance, he went on to say, is even happening when many jurisdictions are implementing fiscal incentives and rebates for EVs. “In the US, you even get the case of California, where HOVs [high occupancy vehicle lanes] are now allowing EVs even if it’s only the driver inside the car…” he said. Thus, the initial change planned by automotive majors – even with thousands of redundancies of ICE engines engineers – is giving way to a slower implementation of the EV push. Castanien mentioned the case of Germany’s major Mercedes. “Only a few years ago, Mercedes said they would be making all vehicles electric by 2030 – they don’t say that anymore. Their updated target is aiming to make 50% of its fleet electrical by that year,” he said. “[US major] Ford has said it is losing $64,000 every time they sell an EV. Tesla was planning a gigafactory in Mexico: they have dropped those plans. The shift towards more hybrid vehicles and not purely EVs is happening – this is a big change.” The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which make up more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Base oils, also called lubricants, are used to produce finished lubes and greases for automobiles and other machinery. The 14th International Summit with the South American Market 2024 runs in Rio de Janeiro on 2-3 July.

02-Jul-2024