Xylenes

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s analysts and economists are increasingly thinking inflation will continue to rise in 2024 but remain upbeat about GDP growth this year, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) said in its weekly Focus Survey. Rates to stay higher for longer on inflation uptick Currency to remain weak to year end GDP growth robust this year, mixed opinions on 2025 The survey, on the prospects for the largest Latin American economy, revised upward projections for inflation, GDP growth, and the exchange rate of the real in 2024. Meanwhile, the recent uptick in inflation may not be enough for the central bank to raise interest rates, but the consensus among analysts is now that the main interest rate benchmark, the Selic, could rise in 2026. INFLATION According to the survey, economists now expect the 2024 IPCA consumer price index to end the year at 4.25%, up from the 4.22% projection in the previous week and the sixth consecutive weekly increase. The 2025 inflation outlook edged up to 3.93% from 3.91%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 remained steady at 3.60% and 3.50%, respectively. The latest inflation figures for July showed prices had risen for a fourth consecutive month, with the annual rate of inflation at 4.50%, well above the April low of 3.69%. However, official data this week for the so-called IPCA-15 – which measures the month’s first fortnight’s price rises – showed a small decrease from 4.50% to 4.35%. Analysts at Capital Economics, who have been suggesting the central bank could hike the Selic as soon as this year to contain the latest rise in inflation, said the IPCA-15 data published this week was likely to make the central bank pause for now when it meets again to set monetary policy in September. “The breakdown of the data showed that the fall in inflation was pretty broad based. Housing and health inflation fell particularly sharply to 3.6% year on year [in the first fortnight of August] and 5.8% year on year, respectively, although this was partly offset by a rise in transport inflation,” said Capital Economics. “Developments in underlying inflation were a bit more concerning. Our estimate of underlying core services inflation – which strips out volatile items – edged up in the first half of August.” SELIC The monetary easing cycle that started a year ago as inflation was coming down is now considered well and truly over. Most analysts expect the central bank to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of this year and potentially in 2025, with only a few forecasting a rise. Earlier in August, the bank left the Selic unchanged at 10.50%. During the inflation crisis, the Selic peaked in 2023 at 13.75%. This week, the Focus Survey showed Brazilian economists and analysts agree that the Selic will not be lowered this year – for the 10th consecutive week, despite the latest tribulations in the exchange rate and investors’ doubts about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline. However, the average in this week’s survey showed they are still forecasting a half a percentage point fall for 2025 to 10.0%, also unchanged from the previous survey. The novelty this week was that, from an earlier projection for the Selic at 9.0% in 2026, economists have now upgraded that and expect interest rates to end that year at 9.5%, the first change in the forecast in 14 weeks. The 2027 rate expectation remained at 9.0%. “Many Copom [monetary policy committee at the BCB] members have sounded very hawkish in recent media comments, opening the door to a rate hike,” said Capital Economics this week after the IPCA-15 data was published. “The next meeting in September will be a close call, but we think that, on balance, the fall in inflation in the first half of August, alongside the Fed’s seeming confirmation that it will kick off its easing cycle in September, mean that it’s a bit more likely that Copom will leave rates unchanged at 10.50%.” GDP One bright spot in this week’s central bank survey was that Brazil’s economy is expected to continue on a strong recovery path, with analysts now forecasting GDP growth of 2.43% in 2024, up from 2.23% in earlier surveys. However, the forecast for 2025 was for a minor dip to 1.86% from 1.89%. Unlike Brazilian economists, the IMF said it expected Brazil’s economy to grow 2.4% in 2025 in July, in part as a result of the reconstruction efforts at Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil’s southernmost state, a key industrial and agriculture producer in the country, was hit by the severe floods in May and its economy came to a standstill for nearly a month. According to this week’s survey, GDP growth estimates for 2026 and 2027 remain steady at 2.0%. REAL EXCHANGE RATE The median projection for the exchange rate for the real to the US dollar in 2024 increased slightly to reais (R) 5.32, from R5.31. The real has sharply depreciated this year versus the dollar on the back of higher inflation and investors’ fears that the cabinet presided over by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wants to expand public services at the expense of a larger fiscal deficit. Lula’s direct attacks on the governor of the central bank have not helped either. As such, most economists no longer expect the exchange rate to hover around R5 to the dollar as it did at the beginning of the year. For 2024, they are now forecasting a dollar to be worth R5.32, while in 2025 it would be at R5.30 and in 2026 at R5.25. Focus article by Jonathan Lopez

28-Aug-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canada plans to impose a 100% tariff on all electric vehicles (EVs) made in China, effective on 1 October, and on top of the 6.1% tariff it already imposes on such automobiles, the government said on Monday. The tariff includes electric and certain hybrid passenger automobiles, trucks, buses and delivery vans, the government said. In addition, the government plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum products from China, effective on 15 October. The tariffs will not apply to Chinese goods in transit on the day that the duties come into force. Canada could impose more tariffs against other Chinese imports following a 30-day review, it said. Those imports could include batteries and battery parts, semiconductors, solar products and critical minerals. For other countries, Canada plans to limit which ones are eligible to participate in its Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV), Incentives for Medium and Heavy Duty Zero Emission Vehicles (iMHZEV) and Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP). Eligibility would be limited to products made in countries with which Canada has negotiated free trade agreements. CANADA'S EV DUTIES FOLLOW THOSE BY US AND EUEVs made in China have become the target of punitive duties by a growing number of regulators. Earlier in the month, the European Commission announced plans to impose up to 36% countervailing duties on EVs from China. US tariffs on Chinese EVs were scheduled to reach 100% on 1 August. EVs typically consume more plastics on a per unit basis than automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs). EVs also pose different material challenges, which is increasing demand for different plastics and compounds. Policies that prolong the use of ICE-based vehicles could extend the operating life of the nation's refineries. Companies could be more willing to invest in maintenance and repairs if they are confident that they could recoup their investments. Refineries produce many building block chemicals, such as propylene, benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). Thumbnail shows an EV charging station. Image by Xinhua/Shutterstock

26-Aug-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Blue flake prices rise at the low end in eastern Europe Wide range of views on eastern Europe bale prices Mixed coloured flake demand remains poor September price talks getting underway

23-Aug-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) plans to invest rupee (Rs) 1.7 trillion ($20.3 billion) over the next five years to grow its refining and fuel marketing business, as well as expand its petrochemicals and green energy businesses. 44% of total earmarked for refinery, petrochemical capacity growth Bina refinery/petrochemical project due for commissioning in FY2028-29 New refinery project being mulled As part of the investment initiative named ‘Project Aspire’, some Rs750 billion will go to increasing capacity at BPCL’s refineries and expand its petrochemical portfolio, company chairman G Krishnakumar said in the company’s annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. “The demand for major petrochemical products is expected to rise by 7-8% annually. This presents a strategic opportunity to expand refining capacity alongside the development of integrated petrochemical complexes,” Krishnakumar said. BPCL’s planned petrochemical expansions include the new petrochemical projects at its Bina refinery in the central Madhya Pradesh state, and the Kochi refinery in the southern Kerala state. The Bina project is a brownfield expansion that will raise the refinery’s capacity by 41% to 11m tonnes/year, to cater to the requirements of upcoming petrochemical plants, which include a 1.2m tonnes/year ethylene cracker and downstream units. The site is expected to produce 1.15m tonnes/year of polyethylene (PE), including high density PE (HDPE) and linear low density PE (LLDPE); 550,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP); and 50,000 tonnes/year of butene-1 The complex will also produce chemicals such as benzene, toluene, xylene, the annual report said. “Technology licensors for all critical packages, and project management consultants for refinery expansion and downstream units have been onboarded and work at the site commenced in the first week of July 2024,” Krishnakumar said. BPCL has chosen US-based Lummus to provide technologies for the new ethylene plant and downstream units at the complex. The refinery will be ready for commissioning by May 2028, while petrochemical operations will begin in the financial year ending March 2029. At Kochi, BPCL’s 400,000 tonne/year PP project is progressing as per schedule and is on track for commissioning in October 2027. It plans to raise its Kochi refinery capacity by 16% over the next five years to 18m tonnes/year, based on data from the company’s latest annual report. https://subscriber.icis.com/news/petchem/news-article-00110958286 The company also plans to set up additional petrochemical capacities over the next few years. “To meet the anticipated demand beyond our planned expansions in Bina and Kochi, we are actively evaluating options for setting up additional integrated refining and petrochemical capacities within the next 5-7 years,” Krishnakumar said BPCL has begun evaluating options to set up a new refinery with a planned capacity of around 9 million to 12 million tonnes/year, a company official said, adding, “we are exploring a new refinery either on the east coast or at other locations”. In Mumbai, the company also plans to expand its refinery capacity by a third to 16m tonnes/year in the next five years, according to its annual report. In the eastern Odisha state, BPCL expects to begin operations at its 200 kilolitre/day ethanol plant at Bargarh by October 2024. Once operational, the integrated refinery is expected to produce both first generation (1G) as well as second generation (2G) ethanol using rice grain and paddy straw as feedstock. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.85) Thumbnail image: The Bharat Petroleum import terminal at Haldia in West Bengal on 13 March 2021. (Debajyoti Chakraborty/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

20-Aug-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Fresh upcoming legislation in the EU and UK from 2025 are set to galvanise the biofuels sector by setting minimum targets for sustainable fuels usage in the aviation sector, but hesitance remains among the larger players. New mandates set to galvanise sector growth Larger incumbents still cautious about big bets Pace of demand growth after SAF mandates remains to be seen The EU sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) mandate will set a minimum floor for fuel at EU airports to contain at least 2% from 2025 and gradually tick up each year, to hit 6% by 2030. These targets ratchet up dramatically from that point, with the 2030-35 period likely to be a transformational period for the aviation sector,  as the SAF mandate to increase from 6% to 20% in just five years. By 2050, SAF is expected to become the dominant form of aviation fuel, with the EU mandating that airport fuels be 70% SAF by the midpoint of the century. Over the next 26 years, aviation firms and fuels producers will need to solve many colossal questions, including the precise composition of the fuels and how those raw materials can be sourced and scaled. Although the European Commission’s ambitions for SAF growth over the next half-decade are a far cry from the step changes required between 2030 and 2050, the introduction of those first minimum targets will be transformational. “I think it’s widely seen as a game-changer in the sector,” said ICIS markets editor for biofuels Nazif Nazmul. SAF currently makes up 0.1% of the global aviation fuel mix and approximately 0.5% in the EU, according to Nazmul, so a 2% target for next year means that airport fuel providers will be under pressure to ramp up capacity quickly. SLOWING AMBITIONS Despite this, the last few months have seen a spate of delays and cancellations from some of the largest entrants to the sector, in Europe and elsewhere. BP announced in June that it is dramatically scaling back its bet on SAF, in the wake of taking full ownership of Brazil-based sugarcane and ethanol major Bunge Bioenergia. The company has paused planning of two projects and continues to assess three others, which it attributed to a desire to simplify its new fuels portfolio. Shell also announced a pause to work on its flagship Rotterdam, Netherlands biofuels plant as part of a bid to control costs, but also “to assess the most commercial way forward for the project,” according to Shell downstream renewables and energy solutions director Huibert Vigeveno. The pause will allow Shell to optimize its project development order and reduce the number of engineers on the ground at the site, but projected savings are counterbalanced by a heavy price. Shell estimates that the write-down from the move will cost the company $600 million to $1 billion. STILL EARLY STAGE Shell has not commented on the capacity for the 2025 EU mandate to improve market conditions, but the impact of the new legislation could take time to trickle through the market. Spain's Cepsa, on the other hand, is proceeding with its €1.2bn, 500,000 tonnes/year biofuels project, with start-up scheduled for 2026. “There is a huge chunk of the aviation market that biofuels was not a part of previously, when biofuels were previously relegated to road transport,” Nazmul said. “But now it has opened up to aviation and I think this is something that definitely got the oil majors interested in the first place. But I think the scale is something that they're beginning to question. Is it something that they're able to pull off right now or should they wait for the market to get a little bit more mature?”, he added. A factor in many green chemicals and green fuels markets is the imminent extent of the scale-up dictated by policymakers at a point where many technologies thought to be necessary for decarbonisation are at the pre-commercial or pilot stage. As with chemical recycling, which has seen players try to step up quickly from pilot to small scale to commercial scale plants, biofuels players need to move fast to meet targets. But the economics of the sector remain challenging for now, and future prospects opaque, meaning that slower-moving fuel sector incumbents may hang back and let more specialized firms take the first larger steps. “The pace of market growth following the rollout of the mandates remains to be seen, which is why some larger players are opting to hold back for the time being,” Nazmul said. FEEDSTOCK, TECHNOLOGY QUESTIONS Like the rest of the bio-based materials sectors, the question of what feedstocks and technologies will be viable as the market grows remains unclear, with players betting on different routes. “That's the question no one knows for sure,” Nazmul said. Currently there are seven different routes to produce SAF, and it's kind of a gamble.” “Will there be enough feedstock? Will there be enough capacity? Will we be importing for example SAF from the US? Doesn't that defeat the entire purpose of slashing emissions when you're shipping these biofuels long distances?", he added. The wider world is observing the steps taken in Europe and the US to develop a viable commercial market for SAF, but few moves have been made outside those regions so far. The same may be the case for large energy sector incumbents, who have the financial flexibility to wait for the market to mature a little before going all in. 2025 may prove to be the starting gun for the sector to develop in earnest, but the real rewards may be further down the line. “Asian countries are really interested in SAF, we're seeing some investments in Japan, but countries like India and China are yet to really commit. It's a matter of time and I'm sure those companies and those countries are assessing the best possible options out there,” Nazmul added. SECTOR BACKGROUND Biofuels are liquid fuels derived from biomass, such as biodegradable agricultural, forestry or fishery products, municipal waste, or biodegradable industrial waste. Biofuels can be categorized into four generations: First-generation: Produced from food crops like corn and sugarcane using conventional technology. These biofuels have moderate costs, as they depend heavily on crop prices. Second-generation: Made from non-food biomass like agricultural residues, wood, and waste. These are more expensive due to the advanced technology required. Third-generation: Derived from algae and other fast-growing biomass, but have high costs that are expected to decrease with technological advances. Fourth-generation: Involve biofuels that capture and store carbon during production, often using genetically modified organisms. These also have high costs but may become more affordable as technology improves. Biofuels are increasingly popular across many industries but especially in the transportation sector. This is due to concerns over the impact and supply of fossil fuels, and the fact that many of these fuels are compatible with existing systems. Supply and demand have been bolstered by legislative mandates and corporate climate commitments aimed at promoting sustainability and the environmental benefits of biofuels. This has led to a significant increase in demand in recent years. While first-generation biofuels once dominated the market, there has been a significant shift towards second-generation biofuels. Despite incentives, the global transition to biofuels faces challenges. High costs and uncertainty about profitability hinder vital investments. Long-term take-up goals have also increased concerns over supply capabilities. Insight by Tom Brown and Zara Najimi Click here to visit the ICIS biofuels topic page

19-Aug-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to beef up its petrochemical production capacity to 14m tonnes/year by 2030 which will increase the state-owned company’s petrochemical intensity index (PII) to 15%, nearly triple its current level, company chair SM Vaidya said. Total petrochemical investments to reach Rs1.2 trillion Domestic industry projected to grow at 8-10% over the next few years Local demand estimated to hit $1 trillion by 2040 Petrochemical projects worth Indian rupees (Rs) 300 billion ($3.6 billion) are under various stages of implementation, while feasibility studies are ongoing on projects worth Rs900 billion, based on IOC’s annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. The company’s current petrochemical production capacity stands at 4.28 million tonnes/year, based on its annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. IOC’s PII refers to the percentage of crude oil that is directly converted into chemicals. “We are integrating petrochemicals into our refining operations," IOC chairman SM Vaidya said at the company’s annual general meeting on 9 August. "This oil-to-chemical approach will enrich our value chain, meet rising petrochemical demand, reduce import reliance, and insulate the bottom line from the impacts of oil price fluctuations," he said. By 2026, its refining capacity will have increased by more than 25% from the current 70.3 million tonnes/year to 87.9 million tonnes/year, Vaidya said at  IOC’s annual general meeting on 9 August. By the end of the decade, IOC expects its refining capacity to be 107.4 million tonnes/year, according to the annual report released on 18 July. “In 2023-24, we successfully commissioned the first phase of naphtha cracker expansion and paraxylene-purified terephthalic acid (PX-PTA) revamp project in Panipat and an ethylene glycol plant at Paradip. These have propelled our PII to 6.1%,” Vaidya said. In November 2023, IOC increased the capacity at the naphtha cracker at its Panipat refinery complex from 857,000 tonnes/year to 947,000 tonnes/year. Following the PX-PTA revamp at its Panipat refinery, IOC has increased its PX production to 460,000 tonnes/year and PTA output to 700,000 tonnes/year, as per the company website. In March 2024, the company inaugurated its 357,000 tonne/year monoethylene glycol (MEG) project at its Paradip refinery complex. PETROCHEMICAL PROJECT PIPELINE Indian Oil plans to commission a 150,000 tonne/year butyl acrylate plant at its Gujarat refinery in the current financial year 2024-25. One of the company’s ambitious petrochemical projects include the mega complex at Paradip in eastern Odisha state, Vaidya said, noting that the Rs610 billion project is IOC’s “largest ever investment at a single location”. The petrochemical complex will include a world-scale 1.5 milion tonne/year naphtha cracker unit along with downstream process units for producing polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE), linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The Paradip petrochemical project is currently in implementation stage and the company expects to commission it by August 2029, IOC said in its annual report released on 18 July. As part of its future expansions, IOC expects to begin operations at the 200,000 tonne/year PP plant at its Barauni refinery and 500,000 tonne/year PP line at its Gujarat refinery before end-March 2026, based on the company’s annual report. IOC has also enhanced its lube oil base stocks (LOBS) capacity at its Haldia complex and is setting up new plants at its Gujarat and Panipat refineries, Vaidya said, adding, “we aim to increase the capacity from 730,000 tonnes/year to 1.5 million tonnes/year”. The company expects to commission the 60,000 tonnes/year polybutadiene rubber (PBR) plant at its Panipat refinery by March 2025 as per the annual report. These planned expansions by IOC will help meet the rising petrochemical demand in the country, IOC stated in its latest annual report. The domestic petrochemical industry is "poised for substantial growth, driven by India’s sturdy macro fundamentals, population expansion and presently low per capita polymer consumption," it said. India's overall petrochemical demand is projected to nearly triple by 2040, with the industry's value expected to reach the $1 trillion mark, said Indian minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Pur in a presentation at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in May 2023. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.91) Thumbnail image: An Indian Oil petrol pump in Kolkata, 17 January 2022. (By Indranil Aditya/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

14-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 9 August 2024. INSIGHT: The future of gasoline demand under India’s new fuel efficiency norms By Man Yiu Tse 08-Aug-24 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s newly proposed Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) norms for passenger cars until 2037 will drive a significant shift towards compressed natural gas (CNG), hybrid, and electric passenger cars, reducing the dominance of gasoline models and influencing the long-term trajectory of gasoline demand. OUTLOOK: Asia Group I base oils supply constraints to persist in H2 amid demand uptick By Michelle Liew 08-Aug-24 11:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's Group I base oils supply, especially for heavy neutrals, is expected to remain tight in H2 2024 despite subdued demand, which may pick up towards September. PODCAST: China's Third Plenum signals optimism for Asia's propylene markets By Damini Dabholkar 08-Aug-24 00:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee recently concluded in July, with the CCP underlining the country’s long-term economic strategy. This session, a significant event in China’s economic planning, serves as a guide for both immediate and long-term policies. OUTLOOK: Asia mixed xylenes market could continue to face headwinds By Jasmine Khoo 07-Aug-24 10:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Mixed xylenes (MX) in Asia for both the isomer and solvent grades are expected to continue facing headwinds from various market factors. Asia shares rebound after sharp losses, oil prices rise more than $1/barrel By Nurluqman Suratman 06-Aug-24 18:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian shares rebounded on Tuesday, staging a relief rally after historic losses the previous day, as fresh US economic data for July alleviated recession fears.

12-Aug-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) maintained their forecast of an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season but slightly reduced the number of named storms they expect to see. The forecasters at CSU still expect 12 storms to reach hurricane strength this season, with six of them expected to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher. A Category 3 storm is one with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles/hour or faster. The only change from the July update is the expectations of 23 named storms, down from 25. Hurricanes Beryl and Debby, as well as tropical storms Alberto and Chris are included in the current forecast. Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the Texas Coast on 8 July and caused damage that led to several declarations of force majeure (FM) and multiple outages across petrochemical complexes and major hubs of production along the US Gulf Coast. Hurricane Debby made landfall on 5 August in northwestern Florida and weakened into a tropical storm before creeping slowly across Georgia and back into the Atlantic Ocean, where it was hovering near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. It is expected to make a second landfall in the Carolinas and then continue up the Eastern Seaboard. Terminals at the Port of Savannah were closed on Tuesday, but officials anticipate reopening on Wednesday once the US Coast Guard completes its waterway inspection and offshore wind analysis. The South Caroline Ports Authority is operating normal gate hours on Tuesday and will shift to reduced hours on Wednesday. Forecasters at AccuWeather are warning about extreme flooding risk in the next 72 hours from Debby with 2 feet of rainfall expected in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. IMPACT ON CHEMICAL PRODUCTION Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation's plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. IMPACT ON RECYCLING Severe weather, including tropical storms, heavy rain and winter weather, can easily disrupt curbside and deposit collection efforts, thus limiting the incoming supply of polyethyelene terephthlate (PET) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles for recycling. If collection efforts are delayed, in some cases, material will be routed to landfill, as material recovery facilities (MRFs) have limits on input processing abilities and are unable to catch up. Additionally, MRFs must often dry out wet mixed recyclable material to optimize the sorting process, which can further delay processing.

06-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian shares rebounded on Tuesday, staging a relief rally after historic losses the previous day, as fresh US economic data for July alleviated recession fears. Meanwhile, oil prices surged by over $1/barrel in early Asian trade, fueled by escalating concerns about the spreading conflict in the Middle East. Japanese Nikkei 225 index jumps 9.55% in early Asian trade Asian petrochemical shares follow regional market rebound, Asahi Kasei gains China's petrochemical futures continue decline In Europe the main stock markets stabilized, opening slightly up before falling back. The UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.08% at 11:20 London time, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were 0.17% and 0.46% lower respectively. The stronger-than-expected US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Survey for July helped ease growth worries. The overall services purchasing managers' index (PMI) improved to 51.4 in July, swinging into expansion and beating the consensus for a rise to 51.0 from 48.8 in June. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector. By 02:30 GMT, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 9.55%, South Korea's KOSPI was 3.07% higher and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.06%. Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) was down by 0.96% while China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index inched 0.20% higher after shedding 1.54% on Monday. Asian petrochemical shares tracked the rebound in regional bourses, with Japanese major Asahi Kasei jumping nearly 14% and South Korean producer LG Chem up by 4.59%. China’s petrochemical futures, however, continued lower in early trade on Tuesday. At 10:30 local time (02:30 GMT), futures of petrochemical commodities, including plastics, methanol and glycols, were trading lower, after losing 0.4-2.1% in the previous session. Product Yuan (CNY)/tonne Change Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) 8,231 -0.3% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 5,650 -0.5% Ethylene glycol (EG) 4,590 -0.5% Polypropylene (PP) 7,570 -0.4% Styrene monomer (SM) 9,183 -0.2% Paraxylene * 8,120 -0.9% Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)* 5,644 -0.8% Methanol* 2,468 -0.5% Sources: Dalian Commodity Exchange, *Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange The global equity market sell-off intensified on Monday, with a wave of declines sweeping across major bourses worldwide. The rout began in Asia, where the Nikkei 225 index plummeted 12.4% day on day, marking its worst performance since 1987 while the KOSPI posted its steepest decline in its closing price to date. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 2.2%, with all sectors and major indexes closing in negative territory. Utilities and oil and gas stocks suffered the steepest losses, leading the downturn in European markets. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by about 1,000 points or down 2.6%, the Nasdaq dived 3.4% and the S&P 500 slid 3.0%. This marked the largest losses since September 2022 for the Dow and S&P, following a downturn late last week due to poor US jobs data and weak manufacturing PMI, which sparked recession fears. The unwinding of the yen "carry trade" after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week also added fuel to the retreat in global markets. For now, the US Federal Reserve has no intention of delivering an emergency rate cut before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 18 September, Singapore-based DBS Group Research said in a note on Tuesday. "The Fed wants markets to view the coming rate cuts as preserving the soft landing and supporting jobs, not as a delayed response to a weakening economy," it said. GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS BOOSTING OILOil prices rose by more than $1/barrel in early Asian trade on Tuesday after dipping in the previous session, driven by supply concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. "Markets are still waiting to see how Iran responds to Israel after it vowed retaliation for the assassination of Hamas’ political leader on Iranian soil," Dutch banking and financial information services firm ING said in a note. "Oil has been unable to escape the broader risk-off move seen across assets, as concerns grow over the potential for a US recession following some weaker macro data in recent weeks. This only adds to worries over Chinese demand." Reports that the Sharara oilfield in Libya has completely stopped production due to protests at the site also supported oil prices. This oilfield has a production capacity of 300,000 barrels/day but was producing around 270,000 barrels/day prior to the disruption. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang Thumbnail photo shows a stock market indicator board (Source: BIANCA DE MARCHI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) Updates, adding Europe detail in fourth paragraph

06-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian shares rebounded on Tuesday, staging a relief rally after historic losses the previous day, as fresh US economic data for July alleviated recession fears. Meanwhile, oil prices surged by over $1/barrel in early Asian trade, fueled by escalating concerns about the spreading conflict in the Middle East. Japanese Nikkei 225 index jumps 9.55% in early Asian trade Asian petrochemical shares follow regional market rebound, Asahi Kasei gains China's petrochemical futures continue decline The stronger-than-expected US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Survey for July helped ease growth worries. The overall services purchasing managers' index (PMI) improved to 51.4 in July, swinging into expansion and beating the consensus for a rise to 51.0 from 48.8 in June. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector. By 02:30 GMT, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 9.55%, South Korea's KOSPI was 3.07% higher and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.06%. Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) was down by 0.96% while China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index inched 0.20% higher after shedding 1.54% on Monday. Asian petrochemical shares tracked the rebound in regional bourses, with Japanese major Asahi Kasei jumping nearly 14% and South Korean producer LG Chem up by 4.59%. China’s petrochemical futures, however, continued lower in early trade on Tuesday. At 10:30 local time (02:30 GMT), futures of petrochemical commodities, including plastics, methanol and glycols, were trading lower, after losing 0.4-2.1% in the previous session. Product Yuan (CNY)/tonne Change Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) 8,231 -0.3% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 5,650 -0.5% Ethylene glycol (EG) 4,590 -0.5% Polypropylene (PP) 7,570 -0.4% Styrene monomer (SM) 9,183 -0.2% Paraxylene * 8,120 -0.9% Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)* 5,644 -0.8% Methanol* 2,468 -0.5% Sources: Dalian Commodity Exchange, *Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange The global equity market sell-off intensified on Monday, with a wave of declines sweeping across major bourses worldwide. The rout began in Asia, where the Nikkei 225 index plummeted 12.4% day on day, marking its worst performance since 1987 while the KOSPI posted its steepest decline in its closing price to date. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 2.2%, with all sectors and major indexes closing in negative territory. Utilities and oil and gas stocks suffered the steepest losses, leading the downturn in European markets. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by about 1,000 points or down 2.6%, the Nasdaq dived 3.4% and the S&P 500 slid 3.0%. This marked the largest losses since September 2022 for the Dow and S&P, following a downturn late last week due to poor US jobs data and weak manufacturing PMI, which sparked recession fears. The unwinding of the yen "carry trade" after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week also added fuel to the retreat in global markets. For now, the US Federal Reserve has no intention of delivering an emergency rate cut before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 18 September, Singapore-based DBS Group Research said in a note on Tuesday. "The Fed wants markets to view the coming rate cuts as preserving the soft landing and supporting jobs, not as a delayed response to a weakening economy," it said. GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS BOOSTING OILOil prices rose by more than $1/barrel in early Asian trade on Tuesday after dipping in the previous session, driven by supply concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. "Markets are still waiting to see how Iran responds to Israel after it vowed retaliation for the assassination of Hamas’ political leader on Iranian soil," Dutch banking and financial information services firm ING said in a note. "Oil has been unable to escape the broader risk-off move seen across assets, as concerns grow over the potential for a US recession following some weaker macro data in recent weeks. This only adds to worries over Chinese demand." Reports that the Sharara oilfield in Libya has completely stopped production due to protests at the site also supported oil prices. This oilfield has a production capacity of 300,000 barrels/day but was producing around 270,000 barrels/day prior to the disruption. Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang Thumbnail photo shows a stock market indicator board (Source: BIANCA DE MARCHI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

06-Aug-2024