Ammonia

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Although some locations still have some final acreage remaining, the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report is reflecting a completion of corn and soybean harvesting for 2024. While a final yield tally will not be immediately available, it has been discussed within agriculture and fertilizer segments as having been a more productive year – especially for corn – than was anticipated given the extremely hot and very dry conditions present this summer. For fertilizers, there is optimism remaining that over the next few weeks, winter will not quickly settle in and that weather conditions will be beneficial enough to see post-harvest applications gain more momentum. One product that is expected to see an uptick as long as there is no further rainfall is ammonia, with wet fields having been an issue for undertaking these end-of-the-year inputs through the first half of November in some states. The USDA did report there is now 77% of the cotton crop complete with the sorghum harvest having reached 95%. The next significant crop will be winter wheat, which the weekly update showed is now 94% planted with 84% having emerged. There is 49% of the crop rated as being in good to excellent condition.

18-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–In episode 19 of the ICIS Hydrogen Insights podcast, hydrogen editor Jake Stones meets with ICIS senior ammonia editor Sylvia Tranganida to discuss today’s global ammonia market. The pair review the current supply/demand balance of grey ammonia today and whether this balance could shift in the future, as well as whether price levels from the 2021-2022 commodity price spike are likely to return. Looking to the future, Sylvia explains the interest the current ammonia market has in decarbonizing and how renewable and low carbon ammonia trade is developing.

14-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–European ethylene producers could be planning more cracker shutdowns, with the lost capacity being replaced by imports from the US. US ethylene export capacity is being expanded. Midstream companies are adding more US capacity to process the feedstock used to make ethylene. Outside of chemical feedstock, midstream companies see potential growth from energy demand from data centers. EUROPE MAY SHUT DOWN MORE CRACKERSUS-based midstream company and ethylene exporter Enterprise Products hinted that more shutdowns were possible beyond the ones announced this year by ExxonMobil, SABIC and Versalis. "We've heard from a lot of the chemical companies that they are doing strategic reviews of their European assets," said Christopher D'Anna, senior vice president, petrochemicals. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. "So, we expect to see some closures, and we expect that to lead to additional ethylene exports going that way," D'Anna said. Among the region's crackers that rely predominantly on naphtha, most produce less than 700,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, which prevents them from benefiting from economies of scale, according to ICIS data. Europe's elevated energy costs pile on the problems faced by these smaller naphtha crackers. US INCREASING ETHYLENE EXPORT CAPACITYUS ethylene exports surged in 2020 after Enterprise Products and Navigator Gas started shipping material out of their joint venture terminal at Morgan's Point, Texas. That terminal can export 1 million tonnes/year of ethylene. By the end of 2024, the two will complete an expansion project that can handle ethane or ethylene. If dedicated to ethylene, the expansion can export up to 500,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, bringing the total to 1.5 million tonnes/year. By the end of 2025, Enterprise and Navigator will complete another expansion at Morgan's Point, which will add even more flexible capacity. If dedicated to ethylene, this expansion could export up to 1.5 million tonnes/year of ethylene. In all, the Morgan's Point terminal could export up to 3 million tonnes/year of ethylene if it chooses to dedicate all of its flexible capacity to ethylene. As new Enterprise ethane capacity comes online during 2025 and 2026, additional flex train capacity can be utilized for ethylene. In addition, Navigator has ordered two carriers that can each carry 48,500 cubic meters of liquid ethylene, with delivery scheduled for March 2027 and July 2027. The carriers have the flexibility to carry ethane, ammonia or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). EXPORTS AND US ETHYLENE BALANCEIf Enterprise and Navigator decide to maximize ethylene exports at its Morgan's Point terminal, it would likely tighten the US market, since the new crackers being proposed and built are integrated with downstream units. But D'Anna's comments raises an interesting scenario. Europe may be willing to import ethylene to preserve its downstream units and its manufacturing base. In the future, US chemical producers could add ethylene capacity to serve a global ethylene market. Growing supplies of low-cost feedstock ethane in the US could make such a global ethylene market possible. ETHANE SUPPLIES CONTINUE GROWING IN THE USEthane produced from natural gas processing plants should reach 2.74 million bbl/day in 2025, steady from 2024, according to the Short Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). US oil and natural gas production should also continue increasing, with oil reaching 13.54 million bbl/day in 2025, and dry natural gas reaching 104.62 billion cubic feet/day, according to the EIA. As oil and natural gas production is set to rise steadily over the next two years, ethane output from processing plants is also projected to increase, according to Kojo Orgle, feedstock analyst for ICIS. Orgle monitors the US markets for ethane and other petrochemical feedstock. With limited growth in domestic ethane consumption as a petrochemical feedstock, additional supply will need to be directed toward exports. Consequently, the ethane market will rely heavily on expansions in US waterborne NGL export capacity. Ethane supplies hit record highs this year and may continue to grow if new outlets do not keep pace with production. OTHER MIDSTREAM DEVELOPMENTSEnterprise noted future demand for natural gas from data centers being built in Texas and from new power plants being developed under the recent Texas Energy Fund. Energy Transfer Partners is pursuing similar opportunities for power plants and data centers throughout its natural gas network, from Arizona to Florida and from Texas to Michigan. Energy Transfer received requests to connect to about 45 power plants in 11 states that could consume gas loads of up to 6 billion cubic feet/day. For data centers, Energy Transfer received requests from 40 that could consume gas loads of up to 10 billion cubic feet/day. EnLink Midstream said data centers could represent at least 7.5% of US electricity consumption by 2030, up from 2.5%. With rising natural gas demand from data centers and continued capital discipline among producers, natural gas prices are projected to rise in 2025 and in 2026, Orgle said. Such demand growth could provide support for natural gas prices, which could raise prices for ethane. If US ethane export capacity does not grow fast enough to drive substantial ethane disposition, increased ethane rejection may occur as higher natural gas prices boost ethane’s fuel value, Orgle said. MIDSTREAM PROJECTS The following table shows some of the midstream projects being developed in the US. Company Project Type Capacity Units Location Startup Brazos Midstream Sundance I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Martin County Oct-24 Brazos Midstream Unnamed Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day – H2 2025 Delek Unnamed Gas Plant 110 million cubic feet/day Delaware H1 2025 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM Q4 24 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM na Energy Transfer Frac IX Fractionator 165,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q4 26 Energy Transfer Badger Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware mid 25 Energy Transfer Permian processing expansions* Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Permian Energy Transfer Expansion of Nederland NGL terminal Terminal Up to 250,000 bbl/day Nederland, Texas mid 25 Energy Transfer Expansion of Orla East Gas pPlant 50 million cubic feet/day Orla, Texas Q3 24 Entergy Transfer Lonestar Express Expansion Pipeline 90,000 bbl/day 2026 Enterprise Fractionator 14 Fractionator 195,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West (Mentone 4) Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West 2 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware h1 26 Enterprise Mentone 3 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service Enterprise Leonidas Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland In service Enterprise Bahia NGL pipeline Pipeline 600,000 bbl/day Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 1 Terminal 120,000 ethane, 900,000 refrigerated tank Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 2 Terminal add 60,000 ethane to raise total to 180,000, Propane 360,000 H1 26 Enterprise Ethylene Export Expansion* Terminal 550,000-2m tonnes/year Q4 24 & Q4 25 Enterprise Orion Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland Q3 25 Enterprise Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) LPG expansion Terminal 300,000 bl/day Houston Ship Channel end 2026 Gulf Coast Fractionators JV * GCF Fractionator Fractionator 135,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu 24-Nov Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Terminal 315,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Fractionator 300,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA MPLX Preakness II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up MPLX Secretariat Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware H2 25 MPLX Harmon Creek II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Marcellus started up MPLX Harmon Creek III Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX Harmon Creek III de-ethanizer 40,000 bbl/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX BANGL pipeline** Pipeline expansion from 125,000 to 250,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK MB-6 Fractionator Fractionator 125,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu year end 24 ONEOK West Texas NGL Pipeline Expansion Pipeline increase to 740,000 bbl/day year end 24 ONEOK Elk Creek Pipeline Expansion**** Pipeline increase to 435,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK Medford Fractionator rebuild Fractionator 210,000 bbl/day Medord, Oklahoma Q4 26, Q1 27 Targa Train 9 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 10 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 11 Fractionator Fractionator 150,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 26 Targa Greenwood Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 23 Targa Greenwood II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland started up Targa Wildcat II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 24 Targa Roadrunner II Gas Plant 230 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up Targa Bull Moose Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 25 Targa Pembrook II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 25 Targa Daytona NGL Pipeline Pipeline 400,000 bbl/day Completed Targa LPG Export Expansion Terminal 1m bbl/month Q3 23 Targa Galena Park LPG terminal expansion Terminal 650,000 bbl/month H2 25 Targa Falcon II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 26 Targa Bull Moose II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q1 26 Targa East Pembrook Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q2 26 Targa East Driver Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 26 Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail photo: Polymer pellets (source: Shutterstock)

13-Nov-2024

Additional reporting by Jake Stones LONDON (ICIS)–On 31 October 2024, the Dutch government launched for consultation its proposal for an industrial obligation to use renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), marking one of the first measures in Europe to encourage the use of renewable hydrogen associated with the renewable energy directive's (RED III) targets for industrial decarbonisation. The scheme, renewable hydrogen industry units (HWI), focuses on setting obligations for the use of RFNBO for particular industrial participants, such as those who use more than 0.1kt of hydrogen per year, and broadly aligns with recent guidance from the European Commission. The exception is that hydrogen use associated with ammonia production does not fall under the obligation under the Dutch scheme. The HWI scheme awards RED III obligated market participants an HWI credit for each unit of renewable hydrogen, RFNBO, used in industry. The HWI can then be used to reflect a market participant has met its obligation over the year, or the party can trade the HWI with another obligated party that is yet to meet its quota. To provide a full overview of the proposal's framework, ICIS has produced the following infographic explainer: For any further information regarding ICIS hydrogen content, please reach out to jake.stones@icis.com or sebastian.braun@icis.com

08-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nutrien said demand in North America for the fall fertilizer application has been supported by a relatively early harvest along with the need to replenish soil nutrients following a period of lower field activity in the third quarter. In its latest market outlook, the Canadian fertilizer major said favorable growing conditions in the US have supported expectations for record corn and soybean yields and significant soil nutrient removal in 2024. The company did note that prospective crop margins have declined compared to the historically high levels in recent years, however Nutrien’s view is most growers in the key region of the US Midwest remain in a healthy financial position. One positive factor that the producer sees is that global grain stocks remain below historical average levels which support export demand for North American crops and firm prices for key agriculture commodities such as rice, sugar and palm oil. Looking at crop nutrient, Nutrien said it has raised 2024 global potash shipment forecast to 70 million – 72 million tonnes primarily driven by stronger expected demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia. The company said it believes the increase in global shipments this year has been driven by an underlying increase in consumption in key markets. The forecast for global potash shipments in 2025 is between 71 million – 74 million tonnes, which Nutrien said supported by the need to replenish soil nutrient levels and the relative affordability of potash. It does anticipate limited new capacity next year and the potential for incremental supply tightness with demand growth. Regarding global ammonia the producer said prices have been supported by supply outages, project delays and higher European natural gas values. For urea Nutrien said that Chinese export restrictions, production challenges from major exporters and strong demand from India and Brazil have tightened the global urea market. It noted that US nitrogen inventory was estimated to be well below average levels at the end of the third quarter, and the company is expecting it will support demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025. For global phosphates, the situation remains tight which is furthered by Chinese export restrictions and production outages in the US. Nutrien said it anticipates some impact on global demand due to tight supply and weaker affordability relative to potash and nitrogen.

06-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–LyondellBasell could make a final investment decision (FID) in 2026 on a second chemical recycling plant, which it may build in the US at its refinery site in Houston, the CEO said on Friday. "FID, for the final step, I would expect that to happen in 2026," said Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell CEO. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. The chemical recycling plant would feature LyondellBasell's MoReTec process technology. The plant could produce 100,000 tonnes/year of cracker feedstock. If LyondellBasell moves ahead with the MoReTec plant, it could be part of a larger project that would convert the Houston refinery into a sustainability hub. The refinery's existing hydrotreaters would be retrofitted so they could upgrade the output from the MoReTec unit as well as from third-party recycling plants. Once upgraded, the feedstock could be shipped by pipeline to LyondellBasell's cracker operations in nearby Channelview, where it will be converted into olefins. Those olefins would be polymerized to produce circular polyolefins, which LyondellBasell would market under its CirculenRevive brand. LyondellBasell could also retrofit other units at the refinery that would convert renewable material into distillates and feedstock that the company could process in its crackers. LyondellBasell could market the resulting polymers under its CirculenRenew brand. LyondellBasell did not provide details about the source of these renewable feedstocks. However, one source could be a storage and logistics hub in Harvey, Louisiana, that is being developed by Kinder Morgan and Finnish refiner Neste. The hub collects used cooking oil and other renewable feedstock, and it could be expanded at Neste's option. Neste pioneered the production of naphtha from renewable feedstock, and the Houston refinery is a short distance by sea from Harvey. In the future, the hydrogen that LyondellBasell would need for upgrading recycled and renewable feedstock could come from nearby blue and green hydrogen projects. LyondellBasell, Air Liquide, Chevron and Uniper are part of a consortium that is evaluating sites for a hydrogen and ammonia project on the Gulf Coast. The Houston refinery is the top choice for the site. More hydrogen could come from the proposed Houston HyVelocity Hub. It is among the hubs participating in the Department of Energy's Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs program. SHUTDOWN OF HOUSTON REFINERY IN Q1In January, LyondellBasell will start shutting down the first crude distillation unit and coker train at the refinery. In February, the company will begin shutting down the second crude distillation unit and coker train, the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit and other ancillary units. The refinery does not have a catalytic reformer. CONSTRUCTION STARTS AT GERMAN RECYCLNG PLANTIn September, LyondellBasell started construction at its MoReTec 1 plant in Wesseling, Germany, which will have a capacity of 50,000 tonnes/year and which should start up in 2026. Vanacker said the plant has a plastic-to-plastic yield of more than 80%. It can use 100% renewable power. Thumbnail photo: Plastic which can be recycled. (By Allison Dinner/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

01-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook global pricing was supported in the third quarter of 2024 by strong global demand, lower supply availability due to natural gas shortages, China’s absence in urea exports and planned maintenance activities in the Middle East. The US fertilizer producer said that in the near-term their management expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive, as inventories globally are believed to be below average and energy spreads continue to be significant between North America and high-cost production in Europe. CF said for North America that while grains prices are under pressure from expected high crop production it is their belief that the fall ammonia application season for the US and Canada will be positive if weather is favorable. US crop returns for 2025 are forecast at similar levels to 2024, which is expected to support stable planted corn acres year on year. The producer said over the medium-term, significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, CF believes the global nitrogen cost structure will remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. Looking at Brazil the producer said through September 2024 that urea imports to the country were 5.4 million tonnes, 13% higher than through the same period in 2023. CF said Brazil is expected to import 2.0-2.5 million tonnes of urea in the fourth quarter due to forecast higher planted corn acres and nominal domestic production. For India the company feels there is significant urea import requirements remaining through March 2025 due to favorable weather for rice, wheat and other crop production as well as lower-than-targeted domestic urea production driving greater import need. Regarding Europe CF said there is approximately 20% of ammonia and urea capacity which was reported in shutdown or curtailment modes as of September 2024. The company said management believes that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output in Europe will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer. For China the producer noted that the ongoing urea export controls by the government continues to limit urea export availability from the country. Through September 2024, China has exported 254,000 tonnes of urea, 91% lower than the same period in 2023. In Russia the company said the urea exports have increased by 5% this year due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including Brazil and the US. Exports of ammonia are expected to rise with the completion of the country’s Taman port ammonia terminal though CF noted that annual ammonia export volumes are projected to remain below pre-war levels. Looking at the longer-term view of nitrogen the producer is expecting the global supply-demand balance to tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is not projected to keep pace with expected global lift in demand of approximately 1.5% per year. As far as global production CF said it is expected to remain constrained by continued challenges related to cost and availability of natural gas.

30-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US LSB Industries said it was able to complete a successful turnaround of their Pryor, Oklahoma, fertilizer facility. The company said in a third quarter update that the investments at Pryor were focused not only on improving its reliability and daily ammonia production volume, but also included the debottlenecking of the facility's urea plant. LSB expects this effort will result in an incremental of 75,000 short tons annually of UAN output. At the El Dorado, Arkansas, facility the producer said it completed the construction of an additional 5,000 short tons of nitric acid storage which is providing the ability to capitalize on incremental sales opportunities not previously available. A turnaround at the Cherokee, Alabama, facility will take place this November and a turnaround at El Dorado is scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, with the primary goal being increased volumes. LSB said it continues to make progress on its two energy transition projects and is expecting to start producing low carbon products at El Dorado beginning in 2026 pending regulatory approval. Regarding the Houston Ship Channel project, the company said it has completed the pre-front end engineering design and is working through the results as well as engaging with potential customers and preparing to select an engineering contractor for the final study. It expects to start that effort during the first half of 2025 with completion by mid-2026. Looking at fertilizer market conditions the producer said the ammonia market is healthy, and pricing has been strong driven by many factors including tight US supply dynamics along with geopolitical concerns and extended turnarounds and outages reducing global inventories LSB also cited the delayed start-up of new production capacity in the US Gulf and an export terminal in Russia For UAN the producer said pricing remains solid due to low inventories in the distribution channel following both spring applications and summer fill program with there being historically low imports and strong exports As it looks ahead it feels there is potential pent-up demand at the retailer and producer level which could lead to favorable order volumes and pricing in the first half of 2025.

30-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian ammonia production technologies firm AmmPower announced it has entered a strategic collaboration with FuelCell Energy to participate in pilots of distributed ammonia production. The company said the partnership will result in the integration of AmmPower’s modular ammonia production units with FuelCell Energy’s highly efficient solid oxide electrolyzer systems, improving clean ammonia production efficiencies and opening new commercial avenues. AmmPower’s Independent Ammonia Making Machine (IAMM) is designed to produce up to four tonnes of carbon-free ammonia daily using renewable electricity. By coupling this technology with FuelCell Energy’s solid oxide electrolyzer the joint effort is expected to reduce energy consumption by over 25% compared to traditional processes. The company said that the FuelCell Energy’s Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cell produces hydrogen at nearly 90% electrical efficiency without excess heat and can reach 100% efficiency when using excess heat. Further it noted that hydrogen produced from electrolysis can be stored long term and transported, allowing energy from wind, solar and nuclear to be available on demand. “As we look forward, our focus is on applying these advanced technologies to meet the critical needs of agriculture and industrial sectors, where ammonia plays a key role,” said AmmPower CEO Gary Benninger. “This partnership is about more than just technological innovation, it’s about providing practical solutions that enhance productivity and sustainability in vital industries.”

24-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsubishi Corporation announced they have agreed to jointly study the efficient operation of clean ammonia carriers and transshipment terminals. The companies said in a statement this effort will look at ExxonMobil’s planned low-carbon hydrogen and low-carbon ammonia production project in Baytown, Texas, as well as the offtake of ammonia. Further through this combined effort, Idemitsu and Mitsubishi Corporation intend on accelerating their study on structuring a supply chain for low-carbon ammonia which is procured from overseas. Idemitsu, which has established an ammonia import and receiving terminal at its Tokuyama Complex, said it aims to jointly introduce over 1 million short tons of ammonia as fuel and raw materials by 2030 in cooperation with other companies. For its part Mitsubishi Corporation said it is assessing the partial conversion of its Namikata terminal into an ammonia terminal. It is also preparing to build a hub terminal that will supply approximately 1 million short tons of ammonia annually to various industrial applications such as electricity, transportation and chemicals by 2030. Idemitsu and Mitsubishi Corporation said they both plan to supply the low-carbon ammonia volumes produced by this project to Japan through their receiving terminals.

23-Oct-2024