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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to an unprecedented energy crisis in 2022. Russian producer Gazprom slashed natural gas exports to Europe by 90%, expecting to deflect western military and political support for Ukraine.
The war thus led to record natural gas prices around the world, as Europe scrambled to secure alternative volumes. These higher costs also had a major impact in other key areas such as fertilizers and petrochemicals.
Although prices have since retracted, the damage remains, shown by sluggish demand levels, while the outlook is equally subdued – and not just in Europe. The World Bank has again revised down its global GDP forecast, to 2.4%, warning that the past five years will have seen the slowest half-decade of growth for 30 years.
This topic page examines the impact of the Ukraine conflict on oil, gas, fertilizer and chemical markets.
Europe’s energy markets witnessed a year of record prices and extreme volatility in 2021. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to more difficult conditions for global markets since then.
GAS SUMMARY
- Gas storage remains robust in Europe ahead of winter 2023
- Poor downstream demand still affecting industrial production, gas demand
- Record shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe so far in 2023
- LNG plus Norwegian, Algerian, Azerbaijani pipeline imports compensate for Russian supply shortfall
- Europe LNG processing operating at full capacity
- Nord Stream I and II pipelines damaged by explosions, zero flows to Europe
- EU implements voluntary 15% cut to consumption
AMMONIA SUMMARY
- Russia supplies 20% of global seaborne ammonia market
- Disrupted supply has pushed up fertilizer and food prices
OIL SUMMARY
- Friendship oil pipeline flows through Ukraine
- Russian oil feeds around a quarter of Europe demand
- Europe seeks to end reliance on Russian crude oil
- EU agrees ban on seaborne imports from 5 December 2022, petroleum products from 5 February 2023
- From 5 December Russian crude oil cargoes only be insured if subject to price cap
CHEMICALS SUMMARY
- Millions of tonnes of capacity remain offline despite gas cost collapse
- Elevated oil, gas prices dent consumer confidence and demand
- Prospect of recession, more cheap imports from Asia
- Margins, prices under pressure due to collapsed downstream demand
Sanctions and measures against Russian exports of oil and gas have sent shockwaves across the global economy, lifting the cost of living, impacting industrial and agricultural production.
How vulnerable are energy and
energy-related Russian supplies to
disruptions?
Europe has historically depended for close to
40% of its annual gas consumption on Russian
supplies, imported via four routes – Ukraine,
Belarus-Poland as well as the Nord Stream 1 and
TurkStream corridors linking Russia to Germany
and Turkey via the Baltic and Black Sea,
respectively.
Overall Russian pipeline supplies were limited throughout 2021 and further reduced in 2022. By the end of last year Russian pipeline supplies fell to less than 10% of Europe's total gas imports compared to 40% in the previous year.
Russian volumes shipped through Ukraine to Europe are now at third of what they should be as part of a five-year transit agreement
Russia has banned exports of gas to several EU countries, and the Nord Stream I and II pipelines have been damaged. In 2022 flows via Yamal and Nord Stream 1 stopped completely.
European petrochemicals players faced even higher gas prices as a result, though these have since collapsed to pre-war levels, though still above long-term averages. Fertilizer companies - where gas can account for 80% of costs - have been forced to curtail production. Chemicals were affected, especially those with high exposure to gas prices through utilities or feedstocks.
If the conflict escalates, Ukraine transit pipelines may come under attack but disruptions could be limited because the infrastructure has been built to grant flexibility, allowing the operator to reroute flows away from potentially damaged segments.
AMMONIA IMPACT
The Togliatti-Azot pipeline, the world’s
longest ammonia pipeline stretching 2,471km
from the Togliatti Azot plant in Russian Samara
Oblast to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of
Yuzhny, could be caught up in the cross-fire.
Russian ammonia supplies account for around 20%
of the global seaborne merchant ammonia market
each month.
Around two thirds of those volumes are exported via Yuzhny, with the rest reaching European and global markets via Baltic ports. Ammonia is a prime material for fertilizers, so curtailments could potentially lead to higher food prices and shortages.
Ammonia market players are scrambling to cover positions and assess options as the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate effect.
Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti confirmed the suspension of the transit of ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to ensure the safety of people living in the vicinity of the lengthy conduit.
OIL PIPELINES VULNERABLE
Supplies on the world’s longest oil pipeline,
the Friendship (Druzhba) pipeline, could be
threatened if the conflict leads to tough
sanctions. The pipeline carries oil from
central Russia 4,000km west to Ukraine and
Belarus and runs close to the Belarus-Ukraine
border. Russia exports around 5m bbl/day, of
which half are exported to Europe, including
via this pipeline.
Russian oil accounts for about a quarter of Europe’s consumption, with the Druzhba pipeline carrying close to 1m bbl/day.
Sanctions have been imposed on imports of Russian crude oil and products by sea, but the ban does not include pipeline oil.
Europe consumed most exports of Urals, Russia’s biggest export grade, in 2021 after Saudi Arabia boosted market share in China. Almost 10m tonnes of Urals went through Rotterdam in the first half of last year, up 2m tonnes on 2020.
Germany stands most exposed because it gets 25% of its oil from Russia.
SInce the ban came into place, Russia has successfully switched exports mainly to China and India, though priced at a steep doscount.
CHEMICALS IMPACT
Gas and electricity are important components in
the production costs of many chemicals. Surging
gas and feedstock prices in Europe have caused
margins to drop because producers are often
unable to push these costs through to
downstream customers. Now millions of tonnes of
fertilizer and chemical capacity are offline in
Europe.
ICIS has also created an interactive timeline which shows the history of the gas impact since July 2021.
These products have been most badly affected by outages in Europe, with more than half of capacity offline or running at reduced rates in some cases.
Analysis by the ICIS Margin Analytics team shows the products which are most exposed to energy and gas prices in Europe as a feedstock or utility.
Europe is at a
competitive disadvantage to other regions and
some customers are seeking new sources of
lower-priced supply, especially from Asia and
the Middle East.
Collapsed demand means that millions of tonnes of European chemicals capacity remains offline despite much lower gas costs.
The conflict in Ukraine has pushed European gas prices back up to record levels, forcing exposed chemical producers to cease production, or add further energy surcharges.
Rising oil prices since late 2021 have already put chemical margins under pressure, and volatility has continued into 2022. As oil and naphtha prices soared, margins for ethylene production based on naphtha went negative for the first time ICIS record began. The are now are swinging wildy in tandem with oil price movements.
Chemical producers are struggling to pass on increasing feedstock and energy costs in Europe. Elevated oil and gas prices also dent downstream consumer confidence and spending, with recession a possibility later in 2022 or 2023.
What contingency plans are being put in
place?
Europe prepared for a difficult winter although
rising storage fullness levels, falling demand
and more import capacity for liquefied natural
gas (LNG) have helped it get by, assuming there
will not be an extensive cold spell.
As of 11 October, storage facilities across Europe were 97% full compared with 88% the same time last year.
Altogether another 157bn cubic meters/year of regasification capacity is due to be added by the end of the decade, increasing Europe's capacity by one third from pre-war levels. Most of it should be ready by next year or 2025/26. The capacity includes offshore terminals in the Netherlands, Germany and Estonia/Finland.
Demand has been decreasing by more than 20% in the industrial sector in north-west European countries and by 20-30% for households in Germany, according to official data.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Russia may completely stop its gas supplies to Europe via the last two remaining routes - Ukraine and Turkey, which could lop off some 70 cubic meters of Russian gas entering Europe daily.
In such a scenario, the most affected countries would be those in eastern and central Europe, which are landlocked and have been struggling to secure regasified LNG from importing countries.
For oil markets, in case of an attack but no international sanctions, the worst-case scenario would be for approximately 240,000 bbl/day of lost Russian exports via Ukraine.
There are other seaborne routes, including the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Gas rationing - impact on Europe petrochemicals, fertilizers
Embattled European fertilizer and petrochemical producers may be the first in line to cut gas consumption if the region experiences a cold snap in the weather.
Russia, Europe’s largest gas supplier, has been limiting exports to less than a quarter of its deliveries two years ago and may stop them altogether amid its political stand-off with the EU.
Policymakers recommend voluntary reductions but say these would become mandatory in case of a supply emergency jeopardising the bloc’s security.
DEMAND REDUCTION
The EU’s largest consumers include households,
accounting for 37% of total demand, electricity
and heat generation covering around 30% and
industrial consumption accounting for another
30%.
Record high gas prices and an ongoing gas supply crunch over the least year had forced consumers to limit or stop production or seek import substitution globally. The mild winter has alleviated this situation.
FERTILIZERS
The fertilizer sector, one of the most
gas-intensive industries, has also been one of
the most affected so far as gas can account for
up to 80% of production costs. Production has
been cut back drastically because it is no
longer economic.
PETROCHEMICALS
On the petrochemicals side, there are now deep
production cuts for products such as methyl
methacrylate (MMA) and melamine which are
heavily exposed to natural gas for utilities or
as a feedstock.
Producers are making detailed plans for rationing, particularly in Germany, where the chemicals and pharmaceuticals industry uses about 140 TWh per year, or about 15 percent of Germany's gas consumption.
Gas is mainly used by petrochemicals to generate energy such as electricity and steam as well as to fire furnaces for production complexes such as crackers.
Sites are able to lower operating rates significantly, but they may be forced to close if gas supplies drop so much that production becomes uneconomic or difficult from a technical perspective.
Companies with flexibility are switching from natural gas to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or other sources of energy.
Ukraine conflict threatens Europe oil supply, chemicals production
With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sanctions could cut supplies of crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline, threatening oil refinery operations and chemicals production at installations in Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland and the former East Germany.
Russian oil supplies up to a quarter of
Europe’s crude imports, with refineries in
central and eastern Europe, which are attached
to the Druzhba pipeline, particularly reliant
on these supplies. Any interruption to these
supplies could force refineries to reduce
operating rates unless they can find
alternative supplies.
Analysis of the ICIS Supply & Demand database shows that the countries Druzhba runs through, except for Germany, are reliant on Russian crude oil for more than half of their imports, led by Slovakia which obtained 96% of its supplies from Russia in 2021.
Chemical production downstream of refineries in these countries could be impacted by any reduction in operating rates. The ICIS data forecast that for 2022, 2.79m tonnes of ethylene (11% of total European capacity) and 2.34m tonnes of propylene (12% of total European capacity) are reliant on refineries located along the Druzhba pipeline. While some alternative sources of crude oil could be sourced, it is unlikely normal levels of operations could be maintained.
Michael Connolly, ICIS Principal Analyst Refining said: “Although many have built alternate sources, keeping full operating rates would be difficult for them as they rely on a consistent and reliable source of crude. Most refiners in Europe are aware of the risk of Russian crude and over the past 5-10 years have tried to reduce their dependence, or at least to build some capability to have an alternate supply - it doesn't mean they would be unaffected, but there should be a little bit of resilience, depending on the site.”
Connolly explained that some land-locked refineries along the Druzhba pipeline have built pipelines to the coast, allowing alternative sources of crude oil to be sourced. However, these pipelines may not have capacity to feed the whole refinery.
A spokesperson for Grupa LOTOS said: "The LOTOS refinery has dealt with suspended supplies by land before. Due to the contamination of Russian oil with chlorines, PERN, the state-owned operator of transmission and storage infrastructure, had to completely discontinue the transmission of crude oil from the eastern direction between 24 April and 9 June 2019."
He added that scheduling of oil supplies by sea helped to secure volumes sufficient to maintain an unchanged level of throughput and maximise fuel production.
UKRAINE CHEMICALS UNDER THREAT
With Russian forces present in Ukraine, chemical and fertilizer facilities may be threatened by physical damage, interrupted power and gas supplies or logistics disruption.
Karpatnaftohkhim's cracker at Kalush has been closed down because of the imposition of martial law in Ukraine. It has capacity (tonnes/year) of 250,000 (ethylene); 117,000 (propylene) 110,000 (LLDPE), 300,000 (PVC), 100,000 (benzene).
Ammonia market players have scrambled to cover positions and assess options as the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw loadings at the key export hub of Yuzhny halted with immediate effect.
Russian nitrogen fertilizer major Togliatti confirmed the suspension of the transit of ammonia to the Black Sea port via pipeline to ensure the safety of people living in the vicinity of the lengthy conduit.
The Samara Oblast-based giant also confirmed the shut down of four of its seven ammonia units, with the other three plants operating at reduced rates.
Russia
export disruptions to shift global trade flows,
future capacities threatened
Disruptions to Russia’s chemicals and polymers
exports will
change trade flows, particularly to Europe
and Asia, as international sanctions, lack of
logistics and even “self-sanctions” limit
volumes.
While Russia’s capacities are relatively small on a global scale, they can still have a significant impact on regional markets if these exports are disrupted.
Key Russia exports include methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), styrene and paraxylene (PX).
Russia has increased exports of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) in particular in 2020 and 2021 as new capacity started up from SIBUR’s ZapSibNeftekhim complex in Tobolsk in 2020.
LATEST HEADLINES
INSIGHT: Top five risks for energy,
petrochemicals and fertilizers in 2024: an
Insight series
By Aura Sabadus 26-Jan-24 00:39 LONDON
(ICIS)--A wide range of threats to the global
economy have been highlighted by international
financial institutions, ranging from housing
bubble busts and banking failures to extreme
weather and cost-of-living crises.
German chem labour union calls for 'massive'
investments to reverse
decline
By Stefan Baumgarten 24-Jan-24 23:11 LONDON
(ICIS)--Germany’s chemical and energy labour
union IGBCE is calling for a "massive"
investment package to reverse the decline in
Europe’s largest economy.
INSIGHT: Chemical M&A sets up for
rebound in 2024 as deal backlog bursts at
seams
By Joseph Chang 18-Jan-24 04:57 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--Following a horrendous 2023 with deal
activity stymied by massive inventory
destocking, weak demand, rising interest rates
and tight capital markets, global chemical
mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are setting
up for a rebound in 2024. However, the
magnitude of any recovery is still very much in
question.
OUTLOOK ’24: Naphtha, gasoline brace for
‘uncharted territory’ as crude enters another
tumultuous year
By Shruti Salwan 05-Jan-24 22:00 LONDON
(ICIS)--The fate of the European naphtha and
gasoline markets is likely to be determined by
crude oil volatility in 2024, with a sharp
shift in upstream prices and a flattening
downstream demand curve to mount pressure upon
refiners.
OUTLOOK ’24 Uncertainty looms over Europe
feedstocks
By Cassandra Abolaji 05-Jan-24 20:00 LONDON
(ICIS)--Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) demand is
expected to pick up in Q1 as long as weather
conditions remain steady.
JANUARY CRUDE OUTLOOK: Prices could ease this
month on global demand
concerns
By Eloise Radley 05-Jan-24 15:30 LONDON
(ICIS)-Although shipping and supply worries
have gripped the market in recent weeks, crude
prices are likely to be subdued for the first
month of 2024 as focus remains on weak demand.
Strong economic headwinds in China, the US and
the Eurozone are likely to raise fears of lower
oil consumption in January.
OUTLOOK '24: Europe capro, CX markets
cautiously eye incremental
improvement
By Fergus Jensen 03-Jan-24 18:30 LONDON
(ICIS)--After a year of contracting demand,
Europe’s cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam
(capro) markets remain cautious, and beyond
immediate disruptions they may see only
marginal consumption gains in 2024 amid
expectations of ongoing challenges in consuming
industries.
Coal
closures to increase gas influence on German
power
By Calum Andrews 14-Dec-23 19:19 LONDON
(ICIS)--Significant reductions in hard-coal
capacity through 2024 could increase the
influence of gas prices on the German power
market, traders told ICIS.
German clean dark spreads
crash on power availability
By Rian Flanagan 14-Dec-23 01:15 LONDON
(ICIS)-- German clean dark spreads move further
out of the money after continued losses in the
power market, pressured by strong fossil-fuel
power plants and French nuclear availability.
Free
energy markets: Still fit for purpose? - Part
3
By Aura Sabadus 13-Dec-23 22:43 The
deregulation of electricity and gas markets
created the biggest transfer of wealth in
history and enabled the efficient allocation to
resources. However, the energy crisis of 2022
and the risks emerging from the green
transition are raising questions whether the
model is still fit for purpose. In this
five-part series, Gretchen
Ransow and Aura Sabadus analyse
the ability of free energy markets to respond
to three challenges: security of supply,
security of infrastructure and security of
price. LONDON (ICIS)-- If the security of
energy supplies is defined as the availability
of energy in various forms in sufficient
quantities, the security of infrastructure is
described as the provision and protection of
critical systems or assets needed to guarantee
their delivery.
PODCAST: Capacity equal to Europe’s entire 2023
ethylene demand could close by
2028
By Will Beacham 13-Dec-23 18:56 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--As waves of new cracker projects come
on stream first in China and then the Middle
East, low demand growth means 18m tonnes of
existing capacity could have to close by 2028
to maintain operating rates and margins.
INSIGHT: Global petrochemicals market in a
decade of unprecedented
oversupply
By James Wilson 12-Dec-23 23:14 LONDON
(ICIS)--The global petrochemicals market is
currently in a difficult moment with oversupply
driving utilisation rates and margins for
chemicals producers to hit record lows.
CDI
Economic Summary: US soft landing more likely
as inflation eases
By Joseph Chang 07-Dec-23 00:10 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--What a difference a year makes! Last
year around this time, there was nearly
unanimous consensus among economists that the
US was barreling into a recession. Today, less
than half see such an outcome.
GPCA'23: 2024 global
PP/PE demand pick-up expected to be
delayed
By Nadim Salamoun 06-Dec-23 23:33 DOHA
(ICIS)--Discussions about the polypropylene
(PP) and polyethylene (PE) markets at the 17th
Annual Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals
Association (GPCA) Forum in Doha centred on the
pick-up of global demand in 2024.
INSIGHT: Consolidation,
new leaders to revive European competitiveness
- LANXESS CEO
By Joseph Chang 05-Dec-23 00:34 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--Consolidation will be critical to
reviving a stagnant European chemical industry
to make it more competitive, and as a result,
new leaders will emerge in specialty chemicals,
said the CEO of Germany-based LANXESS.
IPEX:
Global spot index drops as soft demand, lower
feedstock costs drive prices
down
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 04-Dec-23
20:08 LONDON (ICIS)--The global spot ICIS
Petrochemical Index (IPEX) fell for the fourth
consecutive week as softer upstream costs and
subdued underlying demand keep pushing chemical
prices down across all regions.
Japan factory activity contracts anew; Nov PMI
falls to 48.3
By Pearl Bantillo 01-Dec-23 13:50
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Japan’s manufacturing
activity shrank in November, registering a
purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading of
below 50 for the sixth straight month, as
output and new orders declined.
Japan's Mitsui Chemicals restructuring
continues amid Asia
oversupply
By Nurluqman Suratman 30-Nov-23 12:27
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals is
considering downsizing its domestic phenols
business, as well as optimize domestic cracker
and polyolefin operations, as part of its
business restructuring, to transition into a
specialty chemicals producer by the end of the
decade.
PODCAST: Butanediol
markets in Asia and Europe to usher in 2024
with soft demand
By Yashas Mudumbai 30-Nov-23 20:50 LONDON
(ICIS)--The Asian and European butanediol (BDO)
markets have struggled with poor demand across
downstream sectors in 2023. Market
players remain uncertain because there is
little sign of the tide turning given current
global economic conditions and new plant
capacities in China.
Japan's Mitsui Chemicals restructuring
continues amid Asia
oversupply
By Nurluqman Suratman 30-Nov-23 12:27
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Japan’s Mitsui Chemicals is
considering downsizing its domestic phenols
business, as well as optimize domestic cracker
and polyolefin operations, as part of its
business restructuring, to transition into a
specialty chemicals producer by the end of the
decade.
UK
power December outlook mixed amid weather
risks
By Anna Coulson 29-Nov-23 02:00 LONDON
(ICIS)— A mixed outlook is expected for UK
power prices with delivery in December with
potential for a bullish start to the month,
likely to then transition to a bearish second
half.
Difficult conditions to
persist with ‘highly challenged’ Europe,
‘painfully slow’ China recovery -
LyondellBasell CFO
By Joseph Chang 29-Nov-23 01:20 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--Challenging market conditions for
petrochemicals and plastics are expected to
last through the end of this year and likely
into H1 2024, the CFO of LyondellBasell said.
IPEX:
Global spot index continues to fall as NW
Europe declines
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 27-Nov-23
21:07 LONDON (ICIS)--The global spot ICIS
Petrochemical Index (IPEX) dropped for the
third week in a row as northwest European
prices went down, counteracting a slight
increase in northeast Asia and the US Gulf.
INSIGHT: China likely to end property slump in
H2 2024
By Fanny Zhang 27-Nov-23 19:15 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--China’s ailing property sector is
expected to see a turning point in the second
half of 2024 when reduced supply meets
returning demand.
UK Q1
energy price cap rises quarterly, drops year on
year
By Anna Coulson
23-Nov-23 20:50 LONDON (ICIS)--The UK energy
price cap for January-March increased quarter
on quarter, energy regulator Ofgem said on 23
November, but has fallen year on year in line
with lower wholesale gas and power prices.
Oil
prices fall more than $1/bbl after OPEC+ delays
meeting
By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Nov-23 10:37
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Oil prices fell by more than
$1/bbl on Thursday, extending losses in the
previous session after OPEC and its allies
delayed a meeting to discuss whether to expand
oil output cuts.
ExxonMobil to
significantly scale up plastics recycling
business – president
By Joseph Chang 22-Nov-23 23:31 HOUSTON
(ICIS)--ExxonMobil is planning major
investments and partnerships to become a leader
in plastics recycling, said the head of its
chemicals and refining business.
Poor
demand constrains Asia petrochemical
production; further output cuts
likely
By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Nov-23 12:15
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Operating rates at
petrochemical plants in Asia will remain
constrained, with further production cuts
likely amid weak margins due to high costs,
oversupply, and poor downstream demand.
INSIGHT: Asia petchem
prices expected to trend down through
traditional November lull
By Jimmy Zhang 20-Nov-23 22:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia petrochemical prices are expected
to move downward in November mainly due to the
traditional low demand season.
UK government to boost offshore wind support by
66%
By Anna Coulson 17-Nov-23 02:29 LONDON
(ICIS)--The UK government increased the maximum
strike price available to new offshore wind
projects by 66% it announced on 16 November, as
it seeks to support development in a sector
facing huge cost rises.
Russia's EU gas market share: A battle on four
fronts - LNG
By Rob Dalton 17-Nov-23 01:44 Russia’s European
market share may be further reduced if the
Ukrainian gas transit contract is not renewed
after 2024 and its LNG exports are sanctioned.
While most central and western European buyers
may be able to replace missing imports,
Russia’s ability to retain and even regain some
of the lost share will depend on four pivotal
decisions, as Rob Dalton and Aura Sabadus
explain in this six-part analysis.
APLA '23: Petchems to get worse before it gets
better on geopolitics, China exports - Arkema
exec
By Jonathan Lopez 14-Nov-23 01:10 SAO PAULO
(ICIS)--The global downturn in petrochemicals
may still need to reach a bottom as new
geopolitical tensions add pressure to energy
and feedstocks supplies, an executive at
France’s chemicals major Arkema said on Monday.
UK
government considers shifting chems regulation
plans to cut costs
By Tom Brown 10-Nov-23 00:50 LONDON (ICIS)--The
UK government is considering a rethink of its
post-Brexit chemicals regulatory framework,
focused around reducing the financial impact of
the legislation and potentially stepping away
from the goal of replicating the datasets held
in the EU under the Reach system.
INSIGHT: Companies focus
further on costs as weak demand
persists
By Nigel Davis 09-Nov-23 00:35 LONDON
(ICIS)--Weak demand is embedded in the supply
chain making it extremely difficult this
quarter to have any forward visibility for the
start of next year.
INSIGHT: Fourth quarter
prices and margins under pressure against weak
economic backdrop
By Nigel Davis 07-Nov-23 00:50 LONDON
(ICIS)--Petrochemical and polymer producers
continue to balance output to demand, and costs
to output, as well as they can. Operating rates
remain depressed globally, and acutely so in
Europe. And while there may be some stirrings
in product supply chains, close inventory
management keeps a lid on potential demand
growth.
Chevron to announce East
Med assets “concept development process” in
2024
By Clare Pennington
03-Nov-23 11:52 LONDON (ICIS)--US-based Chevron
said it will select a concept for how to
further develop its Eastern Mediterranean
assets by the first quarter of 2024, according
to a company spokesperson.
Europe blending demand
for ethanol, toluene and MX
mixed
By Zubair Adam 02-Nov-23 20:49 LONDON
(ICIS)--Consumption in Europe for gasoline
blending agents are mixed for ethanol versus
aromatics products toluene and mixed xylenes.
Power
losses weigh on German coal and gas
profits
By Anna Coulson 02-Nov-23 00:44 LONDON
(ICIS)-- Decreasing power prices saw German
clean dark and clean spark spreads fall further
out of the money over the last seven days, with
the rolling front-month clean dark spread
seeing the greatest week-on-week loss.
Polish and Ukrainian TSOs
look into incremental gas capacity
project
By Irina Breilean 02-Nov-23 00:37 LONDON
(ICIS)--Polish and Ukrainian transmission
system operators (TSOs) Gaz-System and Gas
Transmission System Operator Of Ukraine (GTSOU)
have launched on 1 November a public
consultation on a project to increment the gas
interconnection between the two countries.
Ukraine prepared for
winter but Russian missile attacks still a
risk
By Aura Sabadus 01-Nov-23 01:15 LONDON
(ICIS)--Ukraine has stocked up on coal and gas
resources for winter but increased Russian
missile attacks and an extensive cold weather
could leave it struggling to cover the deficit.
Shell exits Pakistan via sale of entire SPL
stake to Saudi Wafi Energy
By Pearl Bantillo 01-Nov-23 15:01
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Shell will sell its 77.4%
stake in a listed subsidiary company in
Pakistan to Saudi Arabia’s Wafi Energy for an
undisclosed amount, marking the Anglo-Dutch
energy giant’s exit from the south Asian
country by late next year.
INSIGHT: Divergent trends
in Asia olefins supply and demand balances for
2024
By Amy Yu 27-Oct-23 18:29
SINGAPORE(ICIS)--The supply and demand balance
for the ethylene market in Asia will be
improved in 2024, but the propylene imbalance
will worsen current data show.
CDI
Economic Summary: US continues to show
resilience on healthy consumer
spending
By Joseph Chang 26-Oct-23 05:16 CHARLOTTE,
North Carolina (ICIS)--Despite softening
consumer confidence, the US economy continues
to roll along, driven largely by a healthy
services sector and resilient consumer spending
- a disconnect between sentiment and reality.
High
prices to limit European gas-fired generation
in Q1 2024
By Rob Dalton 25-Oct-23 22:44 LONDON
(ICIS)--Recent gains across European gas prices
has pushed gas-fired power generators well out
of the money for the first quarter of 2024,
while clean dark spreads indicate increasing
profitability for coal-fired generators.
INSIGHT: More gas price
volatility in 2023/4 as geopolitics spreads
panic amid tight supply
By Will Beacham 24-Oct-23 19:00 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--European natural gas prices are likely
to become even more volatile amid increasing
geo-political instability and tight global
liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.
Oil jumps more than $2/bbl as Middle
East tensions heighten
By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Oct-23 05:08 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Oil prices jumped by more than $2/bbl
on Wednesday after tensions escalated in the
Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas conflict
following a blast at a hospital in Gaza that
killed at least 500 people. Following the
blast, leaders of Jordan and Egypt cancelled a
summit with US President Joe Biden, who is
travelling to Israel as part of efforts to
prevent the conflict from widening.
Middle Eastern producers sign new LNG
supply deals
By Kintan Andanari 18-Oct-23 20:54 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Middle Eastern producers QatarEnergy
and ADNOC Gas announced separate LNG supply
deals on 18 October, continuing a long line of
contracts signed by Middle Eastern companies
over the past year. QatarEnergy signed two
long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements
(SPAs) with Shell to supply up to 3.5m tonnes
of LNG annually for 27 years from Qatar to the
Netherlands, according to an 18 October
QatarEnergy press statement .Meanwhile, ADNOC
Gas signed a multi-year agreement with energy
trader JERA Global Markets (JERA GM), a
subsidiary of Japan’s largest power utility
JERA Co Inc, ADNOC gas said in a statement .
Details of the agreement’s tenure, volume and
pricing were not immediately available. This
represents the third long-term contract
QatarEnergy signed for delivery to Europe with
portfolio players over the past year, as the
continent seeks to secure long-term LNG supply
to replace Russian gas following the outbreak
of the Russia-Ukraine war.
IPEX: Global spot index maintains
downward trend as NE Asia, NW Europe
decline
By Yashas Mudumbai 16-Oct-23 10:21 LONDON
(ICIS)--The global spot weekly ICIS
Petrochemical Index (IPEX) remained on a
downward trend in the week to 13 October,
despite higher crude prices following an
escalation of the Middle East conflict and
fears about its impact on supply. The spot IPEX
index for northeast Asia was down 1.7% in the
week, dragged lower by tepid demand following
the Golden Week holiday in China and hit by
weaker paraxylene (PX), styrene and
polyethylene (PE) values.
Ukraine energy sector prepares for more
military strikes this winter
By Aura Sabadus 12-Oct-23 21:44 LONDON
(ICIS)--The Ukrainian energy sector is prepared
for winter despite the risk of new Russian
attacks, the largest private power producer
DTEK said in a statement on 12 October. The
company, which generates around a quarter of
Ukraine’s electricity capacity, said it had
completed repairs on 16 thermal power units,
doubled coal investments, tripled the pace of
gas drilling and developed 114MW of hard-to-hit
wind generating capacity 100km away from the
frontline. It has spent $107m to repair thermal
power plants and reconnected two moth-balled
power units to provide an extra 500MW of
capacity, it added. Ukraine’s electricity
generation and transmission infrastructure has
been heavily targeted in Russian attacks since
the start of the war in February 2022.
Chemicals stuck between low demand,
volatile energy - UBS
By Joseph Chang 10-Oct-23 05:23 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--The chemical sector is expected to
continue through a rough patch with weak
volumes and volatile energy and feedstock costs
through the end of the year, an analyst with
investment bank UBS said. “Once again, volumes
are generally weaker than anticipated, in spite
of low expectations during the last earnings
cycle,” said UBS analyst Joshua Spector in a
research note, citing slower China demand and
weaker Europe and US construction activity.
“Uncertainty around end demand is again
compounded by volatile energy prices, this time
the quick move up in oil from mid-year, leaving
chemicals firms stuck between weaker demand and
shifting spreads,” he added.
UK chemicals pessimistic as sector
battered by higher costs, cheap imports and
collapsed demand
By Will Beacham 09-Oct-23 19:23 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--The latest survey of UK Chemical
Industries Association (CIA) members reveals
that the majority expect sales, production and
operating rates to be flat or fall in Q4 2023
and 2024. The CIA’s Q3 Business Survey of 50
member companies says 86% of companies expect
their sales to remain the same or reduce while
57% report lower production levels and capacity
utilisation. Domestic demand remains low with
only 4% of businesses reporting an increase in
local sales. The UK chemical industry has been
battered on all sides, with the cost of living
crisis causing demand to collapse as consumers
focus on the basics and shy away from big
ticket purchases. This has particularly
impacted the construction and automotive
sector.
China’s petrochemical market falls
after surges in September, sentiment
weak
By Yvonne Shi 09-Oct-23 17:41 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--China's petrochemical market
strengthened in H1 September, driven mainly by
policy implementations, but as procurement and
pre-holiday stocking gradually came to an end,
the market saw less transactions and an
increasingly cautious outlook. By
end-September, the ICIS China Petrochemical
Price Index (IPEX) rose slightly by 0.82% from
the end-August, closing at 1,296.73. In late
August and early September, China introduced a
series of policies to boost the property market
and consumption. The petrochemical futures
market saw significant gains, which led to some
recovery in the spot market. An increase in
purchasing was attributed to seasonal demand,
with more lower-price transactions seen.
INSIGHT: Global economic slowdown at
hand
By Kevin Swift 03-Oct-23 00:39 Charlotte, NORTH
CAROLINA (ICIS)--The years since the emergence
of COVID-19 have been unusual to say the least,
and old rules of thumb about economic cycles
have evolved. The past year and a half have
been especially challenging for business
forecasters. There has been war in Europe along
with energy disruptions (and price shock),
geopolitical tensions in east Asia, worldwide
inflation and tightening monetary policy by
central banks. There have been recession calls
by a number of prominent pundits but in the US,
but a recession has yet to develop. Chemical
companies have faced volatile raw material and
selling prices, and demand has slumped in many
markets. Earnings have suffered for many firms.
INSIGHT: EU industry policy will
support future low-carbon chemical
industry
By Nigel Davis 05-Oct-23 22:57 LONDON
(ICIS)--The chemical industry often feels
sidelined when, as the supplier of materials
and potentially lower carbon solutions for
industry and commerce, it thinks it should be
at the centre in the debate about Europe’s
industrial future. Yet, that perception is not
necessarily correct. The EU is driving hard
towards net zero encouraging delivery on its
climate pledges. The European Commission has
agreed the Transition Pathway for chemicals and
is looking for solutions to many aspects of the
move towards greater materials circularity and
for the energy transition. The EU likes to
incentivise investment and encourage climate
change developments by regulation. Yet the
adoption in the US last year of the Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA) provided a wake up call and
highlighted how a different approach might
accelerate climate action.
INSIGHT: Sustaining European assets in
higher cost, low-carbon
environment
By Nigel Davis 02-Oct-23 22:50 LONDON
(ICIS)--Companies across the value chain are
accelerating towards decarbonisation trying to
avoid the consequences that bumps in the road
might bring but mindful of the destination. At
the European Petrochemical Association (EPCA)
meeting in Vienna last week it was clear that
corporate carbon reduction pledges to wider
society and the financial markets have a
widespread impact, as producers, sellers and
buyers of petrochemicals look to achieve
targets on a regional as well as a global
basis.
UK
power winter supply margins adequate - system
operator
By Calum Andrews 28-Sep-23 23:04 LONDON
(ICIS)--The UK should be able to maintain
adequate supply margins through Winter 2023,
according to an outlook released by grid
operator National Grid on 28 September.
EPCA
’23: Europe petchem markets in trough, no
upturn expected for 2024
By Katherine Sale 27-Sep-23 21:17 VIENNA
(ICIS)--The European petrochemical markets are
in a trough, with no demand upturn expected for
2024.
High
stocks, low demand to shield Europe’s winter
gas supply margins
By Rob Dalton 27-Sep-23 20:12 LONDON
(ICIS)--After weathering the global energy
crisis last year, the European gas markets’
outlook for winter 2023-2024 has significantly
improved amid high gas storage levels and
subdued demand.
EPCA
'23 INSIGHT: Europe petrochemicals face another
tough year
By Will Beacham 25-Sep-23 16:41 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Europe’s beleaguered petrochemical
sector continues to be battered by persistent
low demand, global overcapacity and cheap
imports from China which are all contributing
to poor margins.
Germany producer prices fall by a record
12.6%
By Stefan Baumgarten 21-Sep-23 02:58 LONDON
(ICIS)--Producer prices in Germany fell 12.6%
year on year in August, marking the biggest
year-on-year decline since 1949, when
collection of the data began.
UK inflation edges down in August despite
higher fuel prices
By Morgan Condon 20-Sep-23 20:30 LONDON
(ICIS)--UK annual inflation slowed for the
third consecutive month in August, according to
the latest data from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. The Consumer
Prices Index (CPI) was recorded at 6.7%, down
from 6.8% in July, driven by softening
inflation for food prices. Further contraction
was offset by rising prices for motor fuels.
Oil
prices hit highest since Nov ‘22 on China
recovery hopes
By Nurluqman
Suratman 15-Sep-23 12:11 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Upbeat August data on China’s
industrial production and consumer spending
accompanied by cuts in banks’ reserve
requirement on Friday sent crude prices soaring
to their highest level since November 2022.
INSIGHT: Lummus, Clariant
enhance PDH tech amid tougher propylene market
By Al
Greenwood
14-Sep-23 23:15
HOUSTON (ICIS)--The enhancements that Lummus
Technology and catalyst producer Clariant have
made to the CATOFIN propane dehydrogenation
(PDH) technology will compete not just with the
market leading Oleflex tech from Honeywell UOP,
but with new entrants from Dow and KBR as well
as renewable processes that have become more
popular as companies strive to become more
sustainable.
INSIGHT: ICIS Leading
Business Barometer gauges pressured global
economy
By Nigel Davis 14-Sep-23 18:47 LONDON
(ICIS)--The health of the chemical industry can
be used as a bellwether for the that of the
wider economy, tied as it is so closely to
upstream energy and vitally important
downstream industries and sectors, principally
autos, construction and electronics.
PODCAST: Global oil Q4
tight supply could intensify on three
factors
By Eloise Radley 14-Sep-23 16:03 LONDON
(ICIS)--Crude prices rose above $90/bbl for the
first time in 2023, in the week ending 8
September.
Europe, US economies to
grow in 2024, China slowdown to persist for
years: economist
By Will Beacham 12-Sep-23 23:41 SITGES,
SPAIN (ICIS)--Europe and the US economies
should grow next year while China will be
trapped in a prolonged multi-year slowdown,
according to Koes De Leus, chief economist of
BNP Paribas Fortis.
INSIGHT: Saudi, Russia
crude cuts firm prices but macro bearishness
casts a shadow
By Tom Brown 11-Sep-23 23:45 LONDON
(ICIS)--News last week that Saudi Arabia and
Russia are to extend voluntary crude oil output
cuts through to the rest of the year has driven
prices to the highest levels of the year, but
economic weakness and stronger flows from
elsewhere may cap gains.
Singapore factory activity improves in Aug but
major external headwinds
remain
By Nurluqman Suratman 06-Sep-23 13:58 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--The country's manufacturing purchasing
managers' index (PMI) rose marginally to 49.9
in August from 49.8 in July, marking the third
consecutive month of improvement, according to
data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing
and Materials Management.
INSIGHT: Styrene capacity build up shifts
global cost curve and threatens structural
change
By Moritz Lank 05-Sep-23 23:40 LONDON
(ICIS)--High cost styrene production units are
challenged in a difficult, slow-growing demand
environment and one in which global capacity is
building fast.
INSIGHT: Trinseo seeks breathing room amid
fiercely challenging market, financing
conditions
By Joseph Chang 07-Sep-23 03:55 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--It has been a tough stretch for Trinseo
as the polymers and latex binders producer
seeks to refinance debt coming due next year
amid fiercely challenging market and credit
conditions, especially in Europe where it still
operates a good chunk of assets even after
shutdowns.
European caustic soda quiet during August lull,
spot prices under further
pressure
By Chris Barker 29-Aug-23 22:48 LONDON
(ICIS)--European caustic soda players cut back
activity in August, adding to the market's
already weak outlook.
Asia fatty alcohols mid-cuts C12-14 weakens on
feedstock PKO decline
By Helen Yan 30-Aug-23 12:40 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Despite ongoing and upcoming plant
turnarounds, spot prices of mid-cuts C12-14 are
facing downward pressure from the decline in
the feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices and
stagnant demand.
Europe MA offers undercut Asian offers, some
restocking may be seen
By Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela 29-Aug-23 22:05
LONDON (ICIS)--European maleic anhydride (MA)
prices could be near a bottom, although it
remains to be seen how long the uptick or a
halt in the downtrend will last given unanimous
expectations that underlying demand will be
stagnant for the rest of the year.
Europe jet fuel price
rally stalls following upstream volatility,
fading gasoil strength
By Shruti Salwan 25-Aug-23 17:17 LONDON
(ICIS)--Consumption for aviation and road fuels
has started to soften as the wind-down of the
summer travel season begins, with lower gasoil
and jet fuel spending exerting downward
pressure on prices.
CDI
Economic Summary: US mild recession expected in
H1 2024
By Kevin Swift 25-Aug-23 03:30 CHARLOTTE,
North Carolina (ICIS)--The US economy could
enter a mild recession in H1 2024 as the lag
effects from the Federal Reserve’s heavy dose
of rate hikes finally kick in. The Fed has also
signaled the potential for further hikes as
core inflation remains sticky.
Gas sell-off to
trigger German peak spark spread
upside
By Daniel Muir 24-Aug-23 22:48 LONDON
(ICIS)--The sell off of benchmark natural gas
contracts after Australian LNG strike risks
eased should see clean peak spark spreads for
German front-year delivery rebound in coming
sessions, traders told ICIS.
Front-month clean dark
and clean spark spreads
tighten
By Anna Coulson 24-Aug-23 00:32 LONDON
(ICIS)--Rising fuel costs saw German rolling
front-month Clean Dark and Clean Spark Spreads
improve slightly over the last seven days, but
a weaker fuel mix saw coal and gas front-year
profitability decrease.
Thailand 2023 growth
forecast cut to 2.5-3.0% after H1
slowdown
By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Aug-23 15:37
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Thailand on Monday cut its
full-year growth forecast to 2.5-3.0% after the
economy slowed in the first half of the year
due to the weakness in global demand which has
weighed on exports and manufacturing.
INSIGHT: Shrinking China
trade signals trouble for chemicals
everywhere
By Will Beacham
10-Aug-23 19:26 BARCELONA (ICIS)--Double-digit
declines in China’s latest import and export
figures, together with shrinking domestic
manufacturing data, confirm a persistent
collapse in demand for chemicals around the
world.
Thailand’s PTTGC swings to Q2 net loss
on crude-led slump in product
prices
By Pearl Bantillo 10-Aug-23 15:04 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Thai producer PTT Global Chemical swung
into a net loss of baht (BT) 5.6bn ($159m) in
the second quarter of 2023 as product prices
tracked the slump in upstream crude prices amid
global recession and petrochemical overcapacity
concerns.
Saudi raises most Sept crude prices for
Asia; hikes all Europe
prices
By James Dennis 08-Aug-23 10:49 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Saudi Arabia issued its September
Official Selling Prices (OSP), with price rises
for most grades for customers in Asia and more
marked increases for customers in northwest
Europe and the Mediterranean, while there were
no increases for US buyers.
Saudi
Aramco Q2 net profit falls 37.9% on lower oil
prices, poor chemical
margins
By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Aug-23 15:49
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Aramco's net profit fell by
37.9% year on year in the second quarter on the
back of lower crude oil prices and weakening
refining and chemicals margins, the Saudi
energy giant said on Monday.
Singapore manufacturing
shows signs of recovery; external headwinds
persist
By Nurluqman Suratman
03-Aug-23 12:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Singapore’s
manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery
in July as new orders improved, but export
headwinds are expected to persist as economic
conditions at major trading partners remain
poor.
OUTLOOK: US BD, SBR
likely to remain oversupplied amid weak
demand
By Amanda Hay
03-Aug-23 03:03 HOUSTON (ICIS)--US butadiene
(BD) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) are
expected to remain oversupplied through the
second half of 2023 because of weak demand for
tyres.
Austrian gas storage
withdrawals could buck 2022 trend in Q4
‘23
By Irina Breilean
02-Aug-23 22:54 LONDON (ICIS)--Austrian VTP
price dynamics suggest storage withdrawals will
likely concentrate during the first quarter of
2024, with VTP Q1 ’24 prices trading at a
premium over Q4 ’23, October ’23 and November
’23.
INSIGHT: BASF grapples
with demand trough, slow road
back
By Tom Brown 02-Aug-23
21:12 LONDON (ICIS)--BASF and the wider
chemicals sector is dealing with an environment
more singular even than the conditions seen in
the pandemic and 2008 financial crash according
to BASF chief Martin Brudermuller, with little
sign of a V-shaped recovery from the current
demand trough.
INSIGHT: Commercial
start-up of Vietnam petrochemical complex
delayed amid weak global
demand
By Pearl Bantillo 02-Aug-23 18:57
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Thailand’s Siam Cement Group
(SCG) expects mechanical completion and
commissioning of Vietnam’s first cracker in
August to September, pushing back
the full
commercial start-up of the Long Son
Petrochemical project to the second half of the
year amid oversupply concerns in Asia.
China
rolls out fresh stimulus to boost growth as
July manufacturing contracts
By Fanny Zhang 31-Jul-23 16:30 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--China has announced new measures to
revive its fragile economy that has been losing
steam since the second quarter, with the focus
on boosting consumption.
INFOGRAPHIC: Europe PET in survival mode
despite peak summer season
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 24-Jul-23 19:01
LONDON (ICIS)--Post-COVID life, coupled with
the Russia-Ukraine war and the volatile
macroeconomics it has unleashed, are upending
consumers’ habits. Restaurants are full,
tourism is booming, yet people are saving on
supermarket purchases, which is severely
hurting demand f or polyethylene terephthalate
(PET).
IMF ups 2023 global GDP forecast, slowed growth
expectations remain
By Tom Brown 25-Jul-23 21:00 LONDON (ICIS)--The
IMF on Tuesday modestly increased its global
GDP growth estimates for 2023 while maintaining
expectations that the recovery over the next 18
months will continue substantially slower than
in 2022 as post-COVID headwinds and the
Russia-Ukraine war weigh on the economy.
OUTLOOK: Europe polyols demand forecast
uncertain for H2
By Zubair Adam 26-Jul-23 17:00 LONDON
(ICIS)--Polyols consumption in Europe was
mainly limited in H1 2023, and there is no
major recovery expected in H2.
OUTLOOK: Short-term European SBR demand
expectations bearish
By Melissa Hurley 27-Jul-23 17:00 LONDON
(ICIS)--European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR)
demand has weakened in 2023 and the situation
is expected to continue in the third quarter.
INSIGHT: Resurgence of Iran gas price debate as
politicians seek a rollback to
formula
By Keven Zhang 28-Jul-23 12:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--In mid-July, an official announcement
from the Iranian government stated that the
natural gas price for petrochemical producers
was Iranian rials (Rls)70,000/cubic metre, up
from Rls50,000/cubic metre.
OUTLOOK: Europe PX braces
for a gloomy H2 amid recessionary
fears
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 21-Jul-23
17:00 LONDON (ICIS)--The Europe paraxylene (PX)
market is getting ready to navigate a second
half of the year marked by disappointing
downstream demand, as the challenging
macroeconomic scenario keeps denting orders
from customers.
French nukes to drive
German gas-to-power demand in
August
By Eduardo Escajadillo 20-Jul-23 23:07
LONDON (ICIS)--German gas-fired generation
could potentially gain momentum in August to
compensate in the event of lower French nuclear
power output amid warmer temperatures forecast
in northwest Europe.
Ukraine needs more
realistic energy targets to attract investors,
MP
By Aura Sabadus 20-Jul-23 17:42 LONDON
(ICIS)--Ukraine must guarantee a stable
regulatory environment and competitive market
conditions if it is determined to attract
investments to rebuild its war-ravaged energy
sector, Andrii Zuphanyn, the chair of the gas
subcommittee in the Ukrainian parliament told
ICIS.
Profit warnings may drive
sell-side M&A – bankers
By Joseph Chang 20-Jul-23 04:55 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--A very active earnings
warning season for the chemical
industry portending difficult conditions
throughout 2023 could lead to more M&A
activity, particularly on the sell side.
Robust domestic demand to
drive Asia ‘23 growth amid weak
exports
By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Jul-23 14:31
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The Asian Development Bank
(ADB) on Wednesday maintained its growth
outlook for developing economies in Asia and
the Pacific at 4.8% this year as robust
domestic demand continues to support the
region’s recovery.
INSIGHT: Pakistan gets
much-needed reprieve; polymer imports to
improve
By Pearl Bantillo 14-Jul-23 17:11
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Billions of US dollars have
started flowing into Pakistan after getting the
much-awaited IMF stamp of approval that the
south Asian nation will set its house in order,
averting an impending sovereign debt default.
INSIGHT: Chems warn of
weak consumer goods, China as earnings season
starts
By Al Greenwood 13-Jul-23 21:41 HOUSTON
(ICIS)--Chemical companies have flagged
weakness in consumer goods and China in a wave
of profit warnings issued before the start of
earnings season.
PODCAST: Falling chemical
prices signal switch from inflation to
deflation
By Will Beacham 12-Jul-23 20:07 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Falling chemical prices could be a
leading indicator of a switch from inflation to
deflation in the broader economy.
OUTLOOK: No respite from
economic pressures and weak demand for Europe
plasticizers market
By Nicole Simpson 12-Jul-23 17:21 LONDON
(ICIS)--Weak demand, strong competition between
sellers and economic woe are expected to
continue defining the European plasticizers
spot market through the second half of 2023.
OUTLOOK: As busy
‘warnings season’ nears end, a new reality sets
in for H2 2023
By Joseph Chang 12-Jul-23 05:37 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--A very active earnings warnings season
for the chemical industry is just about over,
resulting in a big reset downwards in earnings
expectations for Q2 and the rest of the year.
With a new reality setting in, the industry is
bracing for earnings and new guidance that is
likely to be far less optimistic than at the
start of the year.
OUTLOOK: Asia methanol to
grapple with more supply; feedstock swings to
direct market
By Keven Zhang 11-Jul-23 11:40 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia’s methanol market is expected to
grapple with increased global supply in the
second half of 2023 as new capacities are
slated to come on stream in China, Middle East
and north America.
Europe suffers further
operating rate cuts as demand malaise,
overcapacity bite
By Will Beacham 07-Jul-23 16:49 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Collapsing demand and competition from
other regions have led to further deterioration
in operating rates for Europe’s petrochemical
sector, new data from ICIS shows.
South
Korea removes tariffs on naphtha, crude imports
until yearend
By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Jul-23 15:21
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--South Korea has removed
tariffs imposed on naphtha and crude oil
imports, to reduce cost burden for the domestic
petrochemical industry and tame high inflation.
Ukraine can scale up wind
output despite war, market
challenges
By Aura Sabadus 06-Jul-23 20:01 LONDON
(ICIS)--Ukraine could bring online as much as
55GW of wind capacity by 2050 despite major
challenges related to the Russian invasion and
issues linked to market design.
Weak
economic activity pressuring European oil
demand, refining margins
By Cecilia Barreiro 06-Jul-23 00:07 LONDON
(ICIS)--It has been difficult for oil prices to
push above the $80/bbl threshold as economic
anxiety weighs on the market. Weak industrial
and manufacturing demand in the US, EU and
China has driven bearish market sentiment
despite recent announcements from Saudi Arabia,
Russia and Algeria of further supply cuts.
Eurozone manufacturing
slips to mid-2020 levels as demand slows, rate
hikes bite
By Tom Brown 03-Jul-23 19:00 LONDON
(ICIS)--Eurozone manufacturing sector activity
slowed in June to the weakest level since the
early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as demand
continued to fall, confidence sank and
producers started to feel the impact of the
central bank's interest rate hikes.
INSIGHT: China MTBE pushed into overseas
markets due to limited domestic
demand
By Aviva Zhang 30-Jun-23 12:30 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Chinese methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)
producers have been pushing into overseas
markets since 2022 due to limited domestic
consumption potential. Production capacity is
in surplus and gasoline demand has plateaued.
Brazil’s chemicals May producer prices fall
sharply on lower naphtha values, stronger
real
By Jonathan Lopez 30-Jun-23 02:26 SAO PAULO
(ICIS)--Brazil’s chemicals producer prices fell
by nearly 6% in May, month on month, on the
back of lower global naphtha values and a
stronger currency bringing down prices in
reais, the country’s statistics office IGBE
said on Thursday.
INSIGHT: Worries over weak Asia PA6 and
domestic China market remain
By Josh Quah 28-Jun-23 20:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia polyamide 6 (PA6) markets are
ending the quarter with much of the concerns
that have been prevalent since the start of it
– against a backdrop of weak demand in most
regions and already below-threshold margin
levels under pressure of falling further.
OX imports into Europe up by nearly 10% in
Q1
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 27-Jun-23 19:55
LONDON (ICIS)--Imports of orthoxylene (OX) into
the EU and the United Kingdom went up by 9.9%
in Q1 year on year, according to the latest
data from the ICIS Supply and Demand database.
European heatwave could
dampen German power imports through
July
By Calum Andrews 23-Jun-23 01:05 LONDON
(ICIS)--Germany is likely to maintain a net
import position through July, market sources
have suggested to ICIS, however the extent will
largely hinge on European temperatures.
INSIGHT: Embedding
inflation further weakens 2023 industrial
demand for chemicals
By Nigel Davis 22-Jun-23 20:12 LONDON
(ICIS)--Chemical producers in Europe are in an
especially difficult position but operators
worldwide have had to face up to the fact that
demand recovery in 2023 appears increasingly
distant.
INSIGHT: LANXESS CEO
‘Lehman 2’ warning highlights extreme and
broadening demand weakness
By Joseph Chang 21-Jun-23 05:29 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--A huge earnings warning by
Germany-based specialty chemicals company
LANXESS highlights the extreme and extended
weakness in European and global construction
and electronics markets, along with surprising
declines in “usually stable” consumer
applications.
Asia
polyolefins overcapacity to worsen amid
eurozone recession
By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Jun-23 14:38
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s polyolefins market is
bracing for a supply overhang as heavy capacity
additions coincide with a significant weakening
of demand from the recession-laden eurozone,
and amid the slowing Chinese economy.
Global weekly spot IPEX
down again on declines across
regions
By Yashas Mudumbai 19-Jun-23 18:58 LONDON
(ICIS)--The global spot ICIS Petrochemical
Index (IPEX) went down by 1.7% week on week on
the back of price declines across all regions.
Ample
UK gas supply to boost exports over winter
2023
By Hector Falconer 16-Jun-23 01:30 LONDON
(ICIS)--National Gas released its Gas Winter
Review and Consultation on 15 June. For this
coming winter, the British grid operator
expects:
INSIGHT: Shell joins list
of companies reviewing chemicals as demand
tanks, overcapacity grows
By Will Beacham 15-Jun-23 22:36 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Shell has joined the ranks of major
chemical companies which are reviewing and
rationalising their operations as demand and
profitability continue to fall amid rampant
overcapacity.
INSIGHT: Asia
petrochemicals markets plunge in June on supply
length - ICIS analysts
By Ann Sun 15-Jun-23 18:24 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Following a weak May, petrochemical
markets in Asia are witnessing a further drop
in prices in June on supply/demand imbalances.
INSIGHT: Shell to be
‘ruthless’ in capital allocation with Singapore
petchems, Europe units under
review
By Joseph Chang 15-Jun-23 05:29 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--UK-based energy giant Shell will take a
“ruthless” approach to capital allocation along
with a focus on simplification. There will be a
renewed commitment to oil and gas, and
liquefied natural gas (LNG) where returns are
expected to be the highest, while chemicals
will come under greater scrutiny with the
Singapore energy and petrochemical
assets under
review and European plants being
evaluated “unit by unit”.
JUNE
CRUDE OUTLOOK: Bearish demand narrative
confronted by tightening global oil
supplies
By Cecilia Barreiro 13-Jun-23 22:39 LONDON
(ICIS)--Oil prices are expected to continue
retreating during the rest of June as worries
over the health of the global economy and
bearish oil demand prospects depress market
sentiment. However, dwindling spare capacity
and a tighter sour-crude market could rekindle
price volatility in July.
PODCAST: China, energy
transition spur volatility in oil and chemical
markets
By Will Beacham 13-Jun-23 20:36 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--As China’s economy decelerates and the
shift to renewable energy gathers pace, prepare
for much greater volatility in the oil and
chemical markets.
Global spot IPEX down for
ninth consecutive week on falls across all
regions
By Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez 12-Jun-23
19:31 LONDON (ICIS)--The global spot ICIS
Petrochemical Index (IPEX) went down by 1.8%
week on week on the back of price declines
across all regions.
Saudi
Arabia 2023 GDP growth slows to 2.1% on oil
output cuts – IMF
By Nurluqman Suratman 08-Jun-23 15:31
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Saudi Arabia, the world’s
biggest crude exporter, is expected to post a
slower GDP growth of 2.1% this year in view of
production cuts announced in April, according
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Czech
Republic eyes SMRs development in addition to
standard reactors by 2030
By Simona Uhrinova 08-Jun-23 01:14 LONDON
(ICIS)--The Czech Republic would need to
develop small and medium sized modular reactors
(SMRs) in addition to standard nuclear plants
to reduce its dependence on cross-border
imports before 2030.
ICIS
China May petrochemical price index slumps 7%;
June demand stays weak
By Yvonne Shi 08-Jun-23 11:33 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Sluggish demand sent the ICIS China
Petrochemical Price Index in May tumbling by 7%
from end-April despite some stability in the
upstream crude market during the period.
Fears
of gloomy summer for Europe PE,
PP
By Ben Lake 06-Jun-23 19:25 LONDON
(ICIS)--Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) players in Europe are bracing for a
challenging summer, with buyers worried by
woeful demand, while producers closely monitor
already lowered operating rates to avoid
dipping into negative margins.
Dow
cuts Q2 sales guidance on challenging
macros
By Joseph Chang 02-Jun-23 04:48 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--US-based Dow is taking down its Q2
sales forecast to a range of $11.0bn-11.5bn
from its prior estimate of $11.75bn-12.25bn on
challenging macroeconomic conditions and lower
pricing levels, its CEO said at an investor
conference.
PODCAST: Ukraine SOE
corporate governance is vital for
reconstruction efforts,
specialist
By Aura Sabadus 01-Jun-23 21:28 LONDON
(ICIS)-- Corporate governance rules at
Ukraine’s energy state owned enterprises (SOEs)
have been critical to market reforms and to
helping the country secure a long-term gas
transit contract with Russia.
NE
Asia C2 outlook downbeat on rising regional
supply, weak China data
By Yeow Pei Lin 01-Jun-23 11:26 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Northeast Asia’s ethylene (C2) players
are cautious on expectations of rising regional
supplies and weak downstream outlook for the
third quarter as the recovery in the Chinese
economy loses momentum.
Caixin China May
manufacturing PMI rises to 50.9, first
expansion in three months
By Nurluqman Suratman 01-Jun-23 11:26
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Caixin’s China manufacturing
purchasing managers’ index (PMI) picked up from
49.5 in April to 50.9 in May, marking the first
expansion in three months, the Chinese media
firm said on Thursday.
High
stocks could curb Italian Q4 ‘23 gas and power
risk
By Camilla Vitanza 31-May-23 23:44 LONDON
(ICIS)-- High gas storage levels could reduce
some of the risk premium priced in the Italian
gas and power Q4 ’23 products ahead of expiry,
although LNG supply will likely remain a key
driver.
China
manufacturing weakness weighs on crude; outlook
dims further
By Nurluqman Suratman 31-May-23 13:36
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--China's manufacturing sector
lost further momentum in May, heightening
concerns that oil consumption in the world’s
second-biggest economy could weaken further.
INSIGHT: Petrochemical
prices and margins under relentless
pressure
By Nigel Davis 31-May-23 00:38 LONDON
(ICIS)--The persistent global weak demand
environment continues to put pressure on
producers and prices are falling as the balance
with output remains elusive.
PODCAST: Demand flops in
chemical markets around the world, gloomy
outlook
By Will Beacham 30-May-23 20:25 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Chemical markets around the world are
suffering from collapsed demand conditions and
oversupply with no prospect of a turnaround in
the coming months.
Depressed US
manufacturing activity weighing on PP
demand
By Zachary Moore 26-May-23 05:40 HOUSTON
(ICIS)--Demand for polypropylene (PP) in the US
is facing a bearish short-term outlook as the
US manufacturing sector remains in
contractionary territory.
INSIGHT: A tale of two
economies, as resurgent services eclipses
languishing industry
By Tom Brown 25-May-23 23:05 LONDON
(ICIS)--After the dark warnings of late 2022,
ministers at the European Commission could be
forgiven for sounding a little smug.
PODCAST: Rampant China
chemicals overcapacity could rebalance by
2024/5
By Will Beacham 25-May-23 21:00 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Excess capacity plaguing China’s
petrochemical markets could return to more
balanced conditions by 2024/5 as the current
wave of additions ends and demand gradually
improves.
APIC
'23: INSIGHT: Asia petrochemicals navigate poor
demand amid China start-ups; carve 'green'
path
By Pearl Bantillo 24-May-23 19:50
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Uncertainties will hound
Asia’s petrochemical markets for the rest of
the year and possibly into 2024 amid the global
economic slowdown at a time of strong capacity
additions in regional powerhouse China.
INSIGHT: Europe
petrochemicals demand remains weak and prices
under intense pressure
By Nigel Davis 23-May-23 23:10 LONDON
(ICIS)--This striking chart from Germany’s
chemicals and pharmaceuticals trade
association, the VCI, does not even tell the
full story for the country’s petrochemical and
polymers sectors.
APIC
’23: Asia PE, PP margins to stay in unhealthy
range despite China
reopening
By Nurluqman Suratman 19-May-23 19:25 NEW
DELHI (ICIS)--Asia’s polyethylene (PE) and
polypropylene (PP) markets are expected to face
poor margins across all production routes
despite China’s reopening, an industry analyst
said on Friday.
APIC
’23: Japan petrochemical plants run at 80% on
current demand
By Pearl Bantillo 19-May-23 17:13 NEW
DELHI (ICIS)--Japan’s petrochemical plants have
been running at an average rate of about 80%
amid demand uncertainties this year, an
industry executive told ICIS.
INSIGHT: Fundamental Asia
olefin imbalance persists despite better
margins
By Joey Zhou 19-May-23 14:00
SINGAPORE(ICIS)--Asia olefin margins from major
production routes have improved and remained in
profitable territory since March, driven by
lower feedstock prices.
Eurozone inflation rises on energy cost
pressure
By Morgan Condon 17-May-23 20:05 LONDON
(ICIS)--Eurozone inflation edged up slightly on
persistent pressure from energy costs in April,
as the rate for the wider EU showed a soft
decrease, according to the latest data from the
EU’s statistical agency Eurostat on Wednesday.
Annual inflation in the eurozone rose to 7.0%,
up from 6.9% in March. In the wider EU,
annual inflation fell to 8.1%, from 8.3% in the
previous month. Compared to a year prior,
inflation for the eurozone remained slightly
softer, as the rate was pitched at 7.4% in
April 2022, while the level remained stable on
the previous year for the EU at 8.1%.
Global oil demand expectations for 2023
increased in May on stronger China recovery -
IEA
By Morgan Condon 16-May-23 22:25 LONDON
(ICIS)--Global oil demand is set to increase in
2023, driven by strength in China, according to
the International Energy Agency (IEA) on
Tuesday. The IEA’s monthly oil report shows
that demand is expected to rise by 2.2m bbl/day
year on year in 2023, marking an average 102m
bbl/day, supported by economic recovery in
China surpassing expectations. Macroeconomic
pressures and soft demand was reflected in
weaker oil pricing in April and early May,
caused lingering concerns of a recession in
some regions. The IEA, however, increased its
output forecast on a strong recovery in the
second half of the year. China is expected to
account for nearly 60% of global growth in
2023.
INSIGHT: Weak demand dominates
chemicals in Q2 as economies
drag
By Nigel Davis 11-May-23 00:41 LONDON
(ICIS)--The persistence and wide spread of the
demand slump is the key issue for chemical
producers in 2023, now mid-way through the
second quarter. Recent financial reporting from
chemical companies of all types and in all
locations has underlined the impact of weak
demand on sales in the first quarter. The
year-on-year comparisons have proved to be
stark, and reduced production the driver of
lower revenues at a time of still high costs of
sales. Certainly, the focus in Europe and large
parts of the rest of the world has shifted from
energy costs (and availability).
Higher feedstock costs,
slow demand maintain pressure on US polyether
polyol margins
By Zachary Moore 21-Apr-23 06:41 HOUSTON
(ICIS)--A combination of higher feedstock costs
along with slower demand has been maintaining
pressure on margins for US polyether polyol
producers, with margins likely to remain
compressed over the next few months.
INSIGHT: Plastics,
petchems in Europe still waiting for
construction season, Q2 may be reality
check
By Vicky Ellis 20-Apr-23 21:45 LONDON
(ICIS)--As warmer, sunnier days grow more
frequent, Europe’s construction industry should
be ramping up for a busy period. But the season
is proving a disappointment,
with weaker demand across a wide range of
petrochemical and plastics products.
INSIGHT: Hope for 2023
European construction market recovery falters
as spring demand uptick fails to
materialize
By Nicole Simpson 19-Apr-23 20:52 LONDON
(ICIS)--Since late 2022, chemicals players have
been hopeful that better demand is just around
the corner but optimism is faltering as
economic conditions remain challenging and
spring construction demand has failed to
ignite.
INSIGHT: Diverse Asia
April price trends for olefins and aromatics
chain chemicals
By Jimmy Zhang 19-Apr-23 19:15 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)-- Weak consumer confidence and economic
pressures are expected to weigh on the price
outlook for Asia petrochemicals.
UK
summer demand to drop, exports to France in Q3
likely
By Anna Coulson 19-Apr-23 00:07 LONDON
(ICIS)--National Grid is confident that there
will be sufficient supply to meet electricity
demand over the summer, the UK’s Electricity
System Operator (ESO) announced in its Summer
Outlook 2023 on 18 April.
Global oil demand growth
hopes pinned on faltering Chinese
economy
By Barney Gray 12-Apr-23 18:42 LONDON
(ICIS)--Chinese government data for March,
published earlier this month, indicated that
domestic consumer demand is weak and the
manufacturing sector was under pressure at the
end of Q1, which could hinder the anticipated
China-led growth in global oil demand.
IMF
keeps developing Asia 2023 growth forecast at
5.3%; trims India
projections
By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Apr-23 13:23
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The International Monetary
Fund (IMF) has kept its 2023 growth forecast
for developing Asia at 5.3% but trimmed its
forecast for next year amid rising risks in
global financial conditions.
INSIGHT: Europe chemicals
must wait until 2026/7 for gas cost
relief
By Will Beacham 11-Apr-23 22:58 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Although record inflows of liquefied
natural gas (LNG) have helped European gas
prices fall, a cold winter could see them soar,
with relief from volatility only in prospect
for petrochemical customers by 2026/7 when
major new sources come onstream globally.
INSIGHT: Vietnam economy
sputters as first petrochemical complex about
to start up
By Pearl Bantillo 06-Apr-23 11:00
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Vietnam hopes to stem
deteriorating manufacturing conditions, borne
of weak external demand, by cutting the cost of
borrowing to spur domestic activity as it gears
toward commercial operations of its first
petrochemicals complex.
US
auto sector faces economic headwinds on rising
interest rates, higher
prices
By Adam Yanelli 05-Apr-23 05:05 HOUSTON
(ICIS)--US March auto sales ticked lower from
February as economic headwinds have replaced
supply chain issues as obstacles facing the
industry that relies heavily on chemicals.
Developing Asia 2023 GDP
to grow faster at 4.8% but downside risks
remain – ADB
By Nurluqman Suratman 04-Apr-23 12:10
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Developing economies in the
Asia Pacific region are projected to grow at a
faster pace of 4.8% this year and in 2024 on
the back of higher consumption, tourism and
investments due to continued easing of pandemic
restrictions, but downside risks remain, the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.
INSIGHT: Europe chems
look to tough Q2 as economic indicators remain
choppy
By Tom Brown 03-Apr-23 21:47 LONDON
(ICIS)--With expectations growing for some of
the headwinds buffeting the chemicals sector to
ease in the second half of the year, conditions
remain challenging for the second quarter,
while economic indicators point to a continuing
“volatile phase” according to an analyst.
Oil
surges after surprise OPEC+ output cut, lifting
Asia naphtha, benzene
By Nurluqman Suratman 03-Apr-23 12:57
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Oil prices rose by more than
$6/bbl on Monday after the OPEC and its allies
unexpectedly announced further production cuts
of about 1.16m barrels per day on Sunday.
Hungary unlikely to reach EU
intermediate gas storage
targets
By Irina Breilean 29-Mar-23 12:53 LONDON
(ICIS)--Hungary may not reach the next EU
intermediate storage fullness target on 1 May,
ICIS analysis indicates. EU intermediate
targets have been in place since November 2022,
in preparation for the start of the 2023 gas
winter. The targets apply to all member states
with underground gas storage sites on their
territories and directly interconnected to
their market areas. Intermediate targets are in
force for 1 February, 1 May, 1 July, and 1
September, two months ahead of the beginning of
the gas year. ICIS data shows storage sites
across Hungary were 33.2% full on 27 March, a
26.2 percentage point increase compared to last
year. However, this still stands 3.8 percentage
points short of the upcoming May target of 37%.
Joint gas purchasing uptake may be slow
as buyers locked into
contracts
By Gretchen Ransow 28-Mar-23 23:20 LONDON
(ICIS)--Uptake of the EU’s joint purchasing
model may be limited in its first year, as
companies were already locked into contracts
due to “huge panic” about prices in 2022,
European Commission vice-president Maros
Sefcovic told the European Parliament’s
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy
(ITRE) on 28 March. However, if the platform
does prove successful the EU wants to extend
the model beyond gas to other strategic
commodities such as hydrogen, critical raw
materials or technologies linked to the energy
transition. Sefcovic told ITRE on 28 March that
there was still much work to do but joint gas
purchasing would give valuable experience for
the future.
Ukraine's new policy proposals to
'revolutionise' energy
sector
By Aura Sabadus 28-Mar-23 00:22 LONDON
(ICIS)--Ukraine is preparing a raft of
wide-ranging regulations that could pave the
way for the complete overhaul of its energy
sector. The step is a priority for the
mid-term, a senior Kyiv-based lawyer told ICIS.
Maksym Sysoiev, partner at global law firm
Dentons, said the reconstruction of the energy
sector is deemed a priority for Ukraine and
added that if all regulations that are now
under discussion are implemented, they would
trigger a “revolution” in the energy sector.
Russia to extend export restrictions on
fertilizers until November
By Deepika Thapliyal 27-Mar-23 22:39 LONDON
(ICIS)--Russia is planning to extend
restrictions on fertilizer exports until
November to guarantee availability in the
domestic market, according to the country’s
agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev. Current
restrictions on exports are valid until
end-May. To curb inflation and to ensure that
there was a reliable supply of fertilizers to
its farmers, the government imposed export
quotas in December 2021. The restrictions have
continued since the war with Ukraine broke out
in February 2022, although they have not had a
significant impact on the availability of
Russian fertilizer exports - apart from
nitrates.
Asia
petrochemicals demand tepid on macroeconomy,
oversupply concerns
By Nurluqman Suratman 24-Mar-23 14:16
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia's petrochemical markets
continue to face tepid demand as economic
recovery in regional bellwether China remains
slower than initially expected, with new
production capacities adding to oversupply
concerns.
European acrylates
subdued with underwhelming
demand
By Mathew Jolin-Beech 24-Mar-23 01:26
LONDON (ICIS)--The European acrylates markets
are all currently subdued with demand described
as “soft."
CDI
Economic Summary: US regional banking crisis
lowers odds of soft landing
By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 22:21 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--The failure of two sizeable banks
(Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank) in the
US and the crisis of confidence contagion
spreading to other regional banks and now
European financial institutions threatens to
significantly tighten lending conditions at the
very least, further slowing economic growth and
potentially tipping US and European economies
into recession.
Asia
PMDI import markets bearish on poor downstream
demand
By Shannen Ng 23-Mar-23 15:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asian import markets for polymeric
methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) were
dominated by largely bearish sentiment in the
week ended 22 March.
PODCAST: Asia, Mideast PS
demand tepid on competitive imports, feedstock
volatility
By Damini Dabholkar 23-Mar-23 11:14
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asian and Middle Eastern
polystyrene (PS) markets are seeing slow demand
with regional supply remaining relatively
unchanged.
INSIGHT: US Fed
undeterred from 2% inflation goal means more
tough times ahead for
chemicals
By Joseph Chang 23-Mar-23 05:34 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--Even amid a regional banking crisis,
the US Federal Reserve remains undeterred in
its goal of bringing inflation down to its 2%
target. This was evidenced by another 0.25
percentage point rate hike and will mean
weakening economic conditions, a lower chance
of a soft landing and a more challenging demand
environment for chemicals going forward.
Phenol energy surcharges
will start to disappear on lower TTF, but no
demand improvement seen
By Jane Gibson 23-Mar-23 00:57 LONDON
(ICIS)--Falling upstream gas prices may offer
chemical sellers and buyers some relief but the
impact on demand levels has yet to be
significant.
PODCAST: Plunging
shipping rates point to normalising global
logistics, Europe under
pressure
By Will Beacham 22-Mar-23 22:58 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Steep falls in container shipping rates
indicate that the pandemic-induced logistics
crisis may be drawing to a close, but this now
makes Europe more vulnerable to a flood of
cheap imports from Asia.
US
R-PET buying sentiment weakens in wake of
banking crisis
By Arianne Perez 22-Mar-23 20:11 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asian exporters of recycled
polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) cargoes are
expected to continue to see cautious buying
from converters in the US following the banking
crisis.
INSIGHT: New PE/PP
capacities risk derailing nascent Asia
polyolefin recovery
By Izham Ahmad 22-Mar-23 17:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--A wave of new polyethylene (PE) and
polypropylene (PP) supply in Asia is
threatening to upend the tentative demand
recovery the region has been experiencing since
the end of the Lunar New Year holidays as new
suppliers fight to establish market share in an
increasingly crowded market.
Asia
polyamide 6,6 Q2 mood darkened by fiscal year
closing, demand outlook
By Josh Quah 22-Mar-23 13:12 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia’s nylon polyamide 6,6 (PA66)
markets remain weak, ahead of turnarounds
coming up for some producers in northeast Asia.
China
PP prices fall to nearly three-year low amid
increasing supply, lower-than-expected
demand
By Lucy Shuai 22-Mar-23 12:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--China polypropylene (PP) prices fell to
a nearly three-year-low amid increasing supply
and lower-than-expected demand, and the market
may remain under pressure in Q2.
Asia
naphtha swings to multi-month lows on volatile
crude
By Melanie Wee 21-Mar-23 13:42 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia’s naphtha markets can expect
heightened volatility, largely tracking crude
oil futures movement, as demand prospects are
being weighed down by market jitters over the
health of the global banking system.
PODCAST: Subdued spot
trading activity in Europe's oxo-alcohols and
derivatives markets
By Marion Boakye 21-Mar-23 03:35 LONDON
(ICIS)--Throughout March - the oxo-alcohols and
derivative markets in Europe have experienced
weak spot demand, ample supply, and thin import
opportunities.
INSIGHT: Constrained
consumer budgets limit demand for major
chemicals consuming sectors
By Nigel Davis 21-Mar-23 00:49 LONDON
(ICIS)--This is by no means an easy time for
chemical producers as the industry’s major
downstream markets continue to be influenced by
the impact on demand of rising costs and higher
interest rates.
Europe's chemical sector
shrinks - battered by high costs, poor demand
and cheaper imports
By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 23:10 BARCELONA
(ICIS)--Collapsing Q4 profits and losses for
European chemical majors, together with low
expectations for 2023, show just how badly the
sector is still suffering.
Europe markets firm after
emergency UBS Credit Suisse
purchase
By Tom Brown 20-Mar-23 20:15 LONDON
(ICIS)--European markets firmed on Monday after
Switzerland-based banking group UBS announced
plans to acquire embattled rival Credit Suisse,
raising market hopes that banking sector
contagion may be limited.
Global weekly spot IPEX
down on price declines across
regions
By Will Beacham 20-Mar-23 19:11 LONDON
(ICIS)--The global weekly spot ICIS
Petrochemical Index (IPEX) fell by 2.0% week on
week on the back of lower index values across
regions.
PODCAST: Asian PP markets
grapple with increased supply,
lower-than-expected demand in
2023
By Damini Dabholkar 20-Mar-23 19:06
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asian polypropylene (PP)
markets are being challenged by increasing
capacity in 2023, especially in the China
market, while demand continues to recover more
slowly than expected.
Crude
dips to lowest since December 2021 on banking
sector turmoil
By James Dennis 20-Mar-23 17:52 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Crude prices declined on Monday to
their lowest levels since December 2021 before
recovering on growing financial concerns
following equity market losses and instability
in the banking sector in Asian trading.
Asia
petrochemical shares, oil prices weaken after
UBS rescue of Credit Suisse
By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Mar-23 12:43
SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Shares of petrochemical
companies in Asia were mostly weaker and crude
futures fell on Monday on fears of
a banking
crisis contagion, as troubled Credit
Suisse was rescued by its Swiss rival UBS in a
government-backed deal.
INSIGHT: European TiO2
operations at risk, but China may not be the
answer
By Heidi Finch 17-Mar-23 17:53 LONDON
(ICIS)--While energy costs in Europe are more
relaxed compared with 2022 peaks, the
TiO2 marketand the wider chemical industry in
Europe are still facing residual economic and
demand headwinds. European production is at
risk, while China/Asia capacity is increasing.
Asia
glycerine demand weighed down by caution after
US bank collapse and turmoil
By Helen Yan 17-Mar-23 11:48 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia’s glycerine spot demand has been
weighed down by prevailing caution following
the collapse of two mid-sized banks in the US
and plunging bank stocks in Europe.
INSIGHT: Banking
contagion threatens to spread, hit chemicals
demand hard
By Joseph Chang 17-Mar-23 05:47 NEW YORK
(ICIS)--The failure of two sizeable banks
(Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank) in the US
and the crisis of confidence contagion
spreading to other US regional banks and now
European financial institutions threatens to
significantly tighten lending conditions at the
very least, further slowing economic growth and
potentially tipping the US and European
economies into recession.
Asia
naphtha tumbles on tepid demand; crude oil
losses
By Melanie Wee 16-Mar-23 12:56 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)--Asia naphtha markets are under pressure
on the back of fragile demand, while taking
cues from global crude oil futures.
INSIGHT: Banking woes
rattle US chem shares
By Al Greenwood 16-Mar-23 05:03 HOUSTON
(ICIS)--Shares of US-listed chemical companies
fell on Wednesday amid concerns about the
implications of a string of bank failures.
Topic Page by Aura Sabadus and Will Beacham. Additional reporting by Richard Ewing and Sophie Udubasceanu. Maps and graphs by Yashas Mudumbai.