Acetic acid

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe adipic acid and downstream nylon 6,6 markets face bleak prospects for demand in December, followed by a broadly flat outlook in 2025, with overall weak consumption from key derivative markets. Over the past few months, very slow demand and ample supply have continued to dominate European markets alongside rising costs of production. In this latest podcast, ICIS editors Meeta Ramnani and Marta Fern share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Seasonal destocking to weaken buying interest further in December Demand could stay low in 2025; recovery depends on macroeconomic factors Q1 2025 could bring restocking; its magnitude unclear Asian adipic acid import volumes likely to increase in Q1

21-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Avantium has signed a multi-year collaboration agreement to pilot the production of polylactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) from carbon dioxide (CO2), with Thai producer SCG Chemicals (SCGC), the Netherlands-based circular polymer materials firm said on Wednesday. PLGA is a biodegradable, recyclable polyester which is an alternative for conventional fossil-based polyesters. "Under this agreement, SCGC will provide support for all stages of technology development," Avantium said in a statement. Financial details of the deal were not disclosed. "Additionally, SCGC will work with Avantium on developing various PLGA applications, aiming to bring these sustainable solutions to market." Avantium and SCGC have spent the past year exploring the properties of PLGA to perfect its formulation for large-scale polymer applications, with a focus on barrier properties, recyclability, and environmental impact. As part of the collaboration, Avantium grants SCGC an option to negotiate license deal to utilize its Volta technology, including PLGA production, within southeast Asia. Avantium’s Volta technology uses electrochemistry to convert CO2 to high-value products and chemical building blocks including glycolic acid. Glycolic acid, combined with lactic acid, can be used to produce PLGA polyester in existing manufacturing assets.

20-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Celanese plans to cut its quarterly dividend by 95% in Q1 2025 and idle plants in every region after third-quarter adjusted earnings fell well below guidance, the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Monday. Q3 adjusted earnings/share were $2.44 versus an earlier guidance of $2.75-3.00. Celanese shares were down by more than 13% in afterhours trading. Celanese is taking the following steps to cut down debt: It will temporarily idle plants in every region to reduce manufacturing costs through the end of 2024 It expects to generate an expected $200 million inventory release in the fourth quarter. The idling includes 10 sites in the company's Engineered Materials segment. In the first half of the fourth quarter, Celanese has temporarily idled the company's Singapore production of acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), esters and vinyl acetate emulsions (VAE). In Frankfurt, Germany, the company is idling its VAM plant and plans to use it as swing capacity to meet demand. It will start a program to reduce costs by more than $75 million by the end of 2025. The cost cutting will target selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. It will target $400 million in 2025 capital expenditures, a figure below 2024 levels. It will close on a 364-day delayed draw prepayable term loan for up to $1 billion. It will draw on the term loan in Q1 2025 towards $1.3 billion in maturing debt. TOUGH THIRD QUARTERThe plant shutdowns, dividend reduction and cost cutting follow a third quarter that saw demand degrade rapidly and acutely in automobiles and industrial end markets. "Auto in Europe and North America experienced a shock to the demand patterns that had been relatively steady for the previous several quarters, with swift sales declines in both regions that led to a pullback in auto builds," said Scott Richardson, chief operating officer. Demand remained slow in Asia but did not show the same trajectory as the Americas. The company noted that prices in China for undifferentiated nylon polymer reflects supply that is growing faster than demand. Demand remained weak in paints, coatings and construction. New capacity for VAM came online and outpaced demand, amplifying the weakness in construction as well as in solar panels. Excess inventories in solar panels is weakening demand for ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The weakness more than offset the gains that Celanese made from its synergy projects in its Mobility and Materials (M&M) acquisition and from its acetic acid expansion project in Clear Lake, Texas. WORSE FOURTH QUARTERQ4 destocking in the automotive and industrial end markets should be heavier than normal, and Celanese expects demand to worsen in the fourth quarter. The destocking should be temporary and contained in the quarter. In Engineered Materials, Celanese expects a $40 million hit from the destocking. Another $15 million hit will come from seasonal declines associated with product mix. A further $15 million will come from temporarily idling capacity in the segment. For acetyls, Celanese is not seeing any indications of demand growth in anticipation of the first quarter or as a result of stimulus from China. For the company, Q4 adjusted earnings/share should be $1.25. Q3 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEThe following table shows the company's Q3 financial performance. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q3 24 Q3 23 % Change Sales 2,648 2,723 -2.8% Cost of sales 2,026 2,050 -1.2% Gross profit 622 673 -7.6% Net income 116 951 -87.8% Source: Celanese Earnings in Q3 2023 reflect a $503 million one-time gain from the sale of assets. Thumbnail shows adhesive, which is made with VAM. Image by Shutterstock.

04-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US LSB Industries said it was able to complete a successful turnaround of their Pryor, Oklahoma, fertilizer facility. The company said in a third quarter update that the investments at Pryor were focused not only on improving its reliability and daily ammonia production volume, but also included the debottlenecking of the facility's urea plant. LSB expects this effort will result in an incremental of 75,000 short tons annually of UAN output. At the El Dorado, Arkansas, facility the producer said it completed the construction of an additional 5,000 short tons of nitric acid storage which is providing the ability to capitalize on incremental sales opportunities not previously available. A turnaround at the Cherokee, Alabama, facility will take place this November and a turnaround at El Dorado is scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, with the primary goal being increased volumes. LSB said it continues to make progress on its two energy transition projects and is expecting to start producing low carbon products at El Dorado beginning in 2026 pending regulatory approval. Regarding the Houston Ship Channel project, the company said it has completed the pre-front end engineering design and is working through the results as well as engaging with potential customers and preparing to select an engineering contractor for the final study. It expects to start that effort during the first half of 2025 with completion by mid-2026. Looking at fertilizer market conditions the producer said the ammonia market is healthy, and pricing has been strong driven by many factors including tight US supply dynamics along with geopolitical concerns and extended turnarounds and outages reducing global inventories LSB also cited the delayed start-up of new production capacity in the US Gulf and an export terminal in Russia For UAN the producer said pricing remains solid due to low inventories in the distribution channel following both spring applications and summer fill program with there being historically low imports and strong exports As it looks ahead it feels there is potential pent-up demand at the retailer and producer level which could lead to favorable order volumes and pricing in the first half of 2025.

30-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Australian Fertoz Limited said demand for direct application of rock phosphate and their fertilizer pellet product Fertify remained positive in Q3, with significant orders for Fertify starting in September. The company expects this uptick to continue through late 2024 with the phosphate producer saying this positive direction has come forth despite significant losses for farmers in the Alberta region of Canada due to pre-harvest hailstorms. In its quarterly activities report, Fertoz said there were delays in upgrades to granulation processing equipment by key customers, which slowed sales, but the expectations are for completion of these upgrades by year’s end. Fertoz managing director and CEO Daniel Gleeson said the bulk sample permit for 10,000 tonnes in Barnes is in the final stages with submission of a technical assessment review to the Ministry of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation. This permit is expected to be ready for the start of the 2025 mining season, with the next bulk sample permit at Pump Station, also for 10,000 tonnes, part of their overall advancement towards receiving an industrial minerals permit for up to 250,000 tonnes. The industrial permit is also expected to be completed early next year with Gleeson saying Fertoz continues to assess their Wapiti project for suitability of making phosphoric acid for the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery and liquid phosphate fertilizer markets. “Wapiti samples have been received by the testing party, with positive desktop results achieved, and will now process them in the laboratory for final reportable and definitive results. These final testing results are expected in December,” said Gleeson. “Concurrently we continue to engage with relevant parties of the LFP supply chain industry in North America who have expressed interest in our resources.” He said because of the significant direct government investments across North America and substantial future tax credits that overall interest remains elevated in their high quality, low impurity sedimentary rock phosphate deposits.

28-Oct-2024

Correction: In the ICIS news story headlined "Chlor-alkali demand benefited from hurricanes, new pulp plants – Olin" dated 25 October 2024, please read in paragraph 13 …  $135 million … instead of … billion. A corrected story follows. HOUSTON (ICIS)–Demand for chlorine derivatives and caustic soda benefited from US hurricanes and two new pulp and paper plants that opened in South America, which provided some bright spots in what has otherwise been a challenging market due to the slowdown in home building and durable goods, US-based Olin said on Friday. Bleach and hydrochloric acid are used in water treatment and cleaning. For caustic soda, demand continued to be strong because of demand from alumina and from the pulp and paper industry, said Ken Lane, CEO. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. Demand from South America has been the most robust, with two recent pulp and paper plant startups, he said. Lane did not specify the plants. However, Brazilian producer Suzano started up the largest single pulp production line in the world in Ribas do Rio Pardo, Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil. CHLORINE REMAINS IN TROUGHDespite the temporary boost from hurricanes, demand for chlorine remains in a trough, with demand below pre-COVID levels, according to Olin. Looking ahead, the uncertainty that the chemical industry experienced in the second half of 2024 should continue into 2025, Lane said. Such uncertainty will persist until interest rates fall further. Higher interest rates have weakened demand for PVC in several key end markets such as housing, automobiles and durables. In addition, chlorine is used to make titanium dioxide (TiO2), a white pigment that is used to make paints opaque. Demand will not spring back until lower interest rates lead to a recovery in activity in housing and other markets that are sensitive to rates, Lane said. BLOW FROM HURRICANE BERYLOlin expects to take a $135 million hit from damage that Hurricane Beryl caused to its operations in Freeport, Texas. During the third quarter, $77 million was connected to chlor-alkalis and $33 million was related to epoxy resins, the company said. During the fourth quarter, $25 million was related to chlor-alkalis. Olin had conducted an emergency shutdown, the company said. The shutdown caused problems that were not apparent until the company began to restart its operations. Olin completed those repairs about a week ago, it said. The company also built some temporary infrastructure, which it will continue to operate until the middle of next year. Thumbnail shows wood, which is used with caustic soda to make pulp. Photo by Global Warming 

25-Oct-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–German specialty group Evonik plans to restructure two of its business units, putting non-core assets up for sale, closure or partnerships. The Coating & Adhesive Resins and Health Care businesses will be extensively reorganized, with operations generating sales of €350 million slated for strategic changes, the company said on Friday. In Health Care, production of keto acids for pharmaceutical applications in Hanau, Germany, is to be discontinued at the end of 2025, with the loss of around 260 jobs. For the sites in Ham (France) and Wuming (China) active in the same business, partnerships or divestments are being evaluated. The amino and keto acids business generates sales of around €100 million. In future, the Health Care business line will focus on what Evonik considers to be its growth areas: lipids for mRNA and gene therapies, drug delivery systems, and cell culture ingredients. Caspar Gammelin, head of the Nutrition & Care division, said: “Our amino and keto acids businesses in Ham and Wuming are strong and offer great potential. With investments in these sites, these businesses could reach their full potential and flourish. We are therefore examining options such as partnerships or divestments that would allow the businesses to prosper.” COATINGS RESTRUCTURE Evonik’s Coating & Adhesive Resins business line will focus on two core areas for growth: liquid polybutadienes as additives for adhesives and sealants or tires, and specialty acrylics for medical technology and the packaging industry. The business line’s existing polyolefins business, with sales of around €100 million, will be transferred to the C4 chain business at Evonik. In the future, the business will be sold as part of the C4 chain business. The €150 million turnover polyester business for coating and adhesive applications is to be sold. It has around 330 employees in Germany and China. The largest site, with around 250 employees, is in Witten (Germany). A smaller plant in Shanghai has around 30 employees. Lauren Kjeldsen, head of the responsible division Smart Materials, said: “To be successfully competing in the long term globally and to generate the necessary margins, investments are needed – and other companies for which polyester is a core business can realize these better than we can.” Evonik, like many of its peers in the European chemical sector, is under intense pressure from mainly China-driven global overcapacity, with companies under pressure to take radical action to focus on core assets and close or sell other operations. As well as the ramp-up in global production capacity, the region is being battered by a global slump in demand and a high cost base, which has led to collapsing margins and a wave of capacity closures across Europe. Thumbnail photo: Evonik's Essen, Germany, campus. Source: Evonik

11-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Glycolysis-based chemical recycling technology company Ioniqa has filed for bankruptcy protection, the company announced in press release on Thursday. The company is headquartered in the Netherlands. It is concentrated on chemically recycling polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET). In the press release, the company stated that it has determined that “achieving a positive cash flow from its advanced polyester recycling technology will take too long.” Advanced recycling is a term that is often used as an alternative description for chemical recycling (although mechanical recyclers also use the term advanced recycling to refer to some mechanical recycling processes). It attributed this to the comparatively low price of traditional virgin PET and the supply chain for chemically recycled PET still being in development. It also attributed some of the blame to “the implementation of regulated mandatory standards for meaningful recycling levels… [being] too far out into the future.”  It stated that this meant that large-scale deployment of its technology was not economically feasible at this time. Ioniqa has a glycolysis-based chemical recycling demonstration plant in Geleen, The Netherlands, which has been operational since 2019 and has an estimated output of 8,000 tonnes/year according the ICIS Recycling Supply Tracker – Chemical. Investors in the site include The Coca Cola Company, Unilever, Indorama Ventures, Koch Technology Solutions, and Infinity Recycling’s Circular Plastics Fund. Chemical recycling is an umbrella term for a variety of methods that use different production routes and feedstocks to create new material from waste. This means that each process (and each technology and individual player) has vastly different cost-structures and the economics of each chemical recycling method vary substantially.  Coupled with this, achievable prices for chemically recycled products vary significantly between grade and polymer type. Common chemical recycling methods include pyrolysis, gasification, glycolysis, hydrolysis, methanolysis, and enzymatic hydrolysis. In chemical recycling, chemical processes are used to revert waste back to an earlier molecular state. Waste can be reverted back to monomer, building block chemicals, or all the way back to crude oil/energy. Chemical recycling alters the fundamental chemical properties of the material. In glycolysis, a transesterification catalyst is used to break the ester linkages. Typical catalysts include monoethylene glycol (MEG), diethylene glycol (DEG), propylene glycol (PG) or dipropylene glycol (DPG)..In glycolysis, a transesterification catalyst is used to break the ester linkages, which are replaced by hydroxyl terminals. This produces bisterephthalate (BHET) and PET glycozates. These can be reacted with aliphatic diacids to make: polyester polyols, which are in turn used in polyurethane (PU) foams; co-polyesters; unsaturated resins; and hydrophobic dyes. If combined with virgin BHET, the process produces chemically recycled PET via dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) or purified terephthalic acid (PTA) glycolysis. Typical catalysts include monoethylene glycol (MEG), diethylene glycol (DEG), propylene glycol (PG) or dipropylene glycol (DPG). Transesterification does not work on polymers such as polyolefins due to a lack of cutting points. As a result, glycolysis is predominantly focussed on PET, and this means that it typically uses sorted and separated monomaterial as a feedstock, which can add additional cost. The most common form of chemical recycling in Europe is pyrolysis-based. This is in large part being driven by demand from ambitious brand sustainability targets in the packaging sector. Many fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands see chemical recycling as the only viable way to reach large scale food-grade packaging suitable recycled polyolefins given current EFSA requirements that 95% of input waste must be former food-contact to gain food-contact approval. Most PET input waste is sourced from used plastic drinks bottles, making it easier for R-PET producers to meet this 95% requirement than other polymers, and there is a well established R-PET food-grade pellet sector – using traditional recycling methods – across Europe. R-PET is also the only mechanical recycling technology recognised as suitable for producing food-contact material under European Commission regulation (EU) 2022/1616 on ‘recycled plastic materials and articles intended to come into contact with foods’. Pyrolysis-based chemical recycling uses heat and pressure – typically in the absence of oxygen, although it is sometimes present in controlled volumes – to transform waste feedstocks (most commonly plastic waste or end-of-life tyres) into an earlier molecular state. Pyrolysis-based plants targeting mixed plastic waste as feedstock – with a focus on polyolefins – currently account for more than 60% of all operating chemical recycling capacity in Europe according to ICIS Recycling Supply Tracker – Chemical. PET, however, does not pyrolyse. Highlighting just how variable achievable prices for chemically recycled materials can be, pyrolysis oil prices in Europe are currently regularly trading on the spot market anywhere from €800-2,200/tonne ex-works Europe depending on grade. ICIS assesses more than 100 grades throughout the recycled plastic value chain globally – from waste bales through to pellets. This includes recycled polyethylene (R-PE), recycled PET (R-PET), R-PP, mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil. On 1 October ICIS launched a recycled polyolefins agglomerate price range as part of the Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis Oil (Europe) pricing service. For more information on ICIS’ recycled plastic products, please contact the ICIS recycling team at recycling@icis.com Clarification: recasts glycolysis process technology paragraph

10-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Volatility marked the first few days of re-opening of China’s financial and commodities markets as investors’ initial hopes of more economic measures were crushed. Implementation plans for pre-holiday measures unclear Infrastructure-focused sovereign bonds to drive growth further China GDP growth to slow to 4.3% in 2025 – World Bank The highly anticipated return of Chinese market players after a week-long absence sparked a surge in the equities markets, with the closely watched CSI 300 – which tracks shares of the top 300 companies trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen, had surged by 11% on 8 October. “Expectations were high after the monetary announcements made [in] the week of 24 September and there were even news reports of up to a [yuan] CNY10 trillion ($1.4 trillion) stimulus,” hedge fund portfolio manager Rikki Malik said in a note issued on Wednesday for investment research and analysis firm Smartkarma. On Wednesday, the CSI300 index fell by 7%, reflecting concerns over the lack of concrete new stimulus measures from Beijing to sustain the rally. Other Asian equity indices tracked the weakness in Chinese bourses amid risk aversion also stoked by geopolitical jitters in the Middle East At 08:53 GMT, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down by around 1.4% at 20,637.24, continuing from its sharpest single-day decline in 16 years in the previous session. Chemicals giant Sinopec was down by 3.61% and state energy firm PetroChina fell by 3.14% in Hong Kong. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's KOSPI Composite ended 0.61% lower to 2,594.36 while Japan's key Nikkei 225 closed up by 0.87% at 39,277.96 China’s petrochemical futures tumbled, with polyvinyl chloride (PVC), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and paraxylene (PX) futures leading the slump. Market sentiment was also weighed down by crude oil’s plunge overnight, in which both Brent and WTI benchmarks shed more than 4%. POST-HOLIDAY POLICY BRIEFING UNDERWHELMS The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) – China’s top economic planner – held a briefing on 8 October in which chairman Zheng Shanjie said that China was "fully confident" of achieving economic targets for 2024. But his failure to detail sufficiently big or new measures rekindled market doubts about Beijing's commitment to ensuring the economy can climb out of its most serious slump since the global pandemic and achieve a 5% growth. Market players were initially expecting the government to adopt further fiscal measures to arrest the slowdown of the world’s second-biggest economy. Instead, the NDRC emphasized confidence in achieving the "around 5%" growth target for this year based on policy measures announced in late September. Toward this end, issuance of long-term sovereign and local government bonds will be accelerated to fund infrastructure projects well into next year. Additionally, the NDRC announced upcoming investments in key strategic areas totaling yuan (CNY) 100 billion, on top of plans to expedite CNY100 billion in central government investment originally planned for 2025. NO MAJOR NEAR-TERM IMPACT FROM STIMULUS MEASURES During the seven-day China holiday in the first week of October, domestic tourist trips grew 5.9% year on year, with revenues up by 6.3% over the same period. But the per trip spend was near flat at 0.4%, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Week-long holidays in the country, including the Spring Festival/Lunar New Year and Labor Day celebrations in February and May, respectively, typically result in spikes in domestic tourism spending. In October, domestic tourism activities remained positive this year while there were also reports of stronger outbound and inbound travel during the period. The two earlier major holidays in China – the Spring Festival and Labour Day holidays – had recorded stronger improvements across number of trips, total spend and spend per trip, according to Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research in a note on Wednesday. "Although the recovery in outbound travel may dilute the demand for domestic tourism, the moderation in spend per trip continue to indicate more cautious spending amongst consumers," it said. "The initial spillover from recent PBOC [People's Bank of China]-led stimulus to consumer spending including the rollout of local government vouchers and promotions to boost consumption had been lacking in the National Day holiday statistics," UOB said. "This further affirms the need for stronger fiscal measures that target consumption and support to the labor market particularly with youth unemployment rate rising to 18.8% in Aug which continues to hamper the recovery in consumer confidence." Ahead of the National Day holidays, China’s central bank had announced stimulus measures estimated to be worth at least CNY3 trillion, which is equivalent to 2.3% of its GDP. These measures include a 50-basis point cut to banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting CNY1 trillion into the financial system. Further measures include a CNY1 trillion capital injection to state-owned banks, a reduction in interest rates on existing mortgages to release CNY150 billion in funds, and CNY800 billion allocated to swap and re-lending facilities for stock purchases. “Investors were also disappointed that some of the 2025 budget would be pulled forward to this year, implying no new money, but… it is easier to issue special bonds which are off budget, rather than going through the rigmarole of increasing this year’s budget deficit,” said SmartKarma’s Malik. Markets will now be closely watching for further fiscal stimulus to support consumption and investment. “In addition, given the onset of winter, construction projects need to be started quickly. We fully expect there to be further issuance of ultra-long special bonds,” Malik added. Investors watching for signs of China's next policy moves now have three key dates circled on their calendars. In late October, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) is scheduled to meet in late October. Meanwhile, China’s Q3 GDP is slated for release on 18 October; while country’s Politburo is due to meet early December, leading to the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). The CEWC is a pivotal annual meeting in China during which country's economic agenda is set for the upcoming year. The conference typically takes place over two to three days in December. CHINA 2025 GROWTH TO SLOW DESPITE STIMULUS – WB Economic growth in China is projected to slow to 4.3% next year from 4.8% in 2024 despite economic stimulus measures that China introduced in September, the World Bank warned in a report on 7 October. This is due in part to low consumer and investor confidence, property market weakness, an ageing population and global tensions, the multilateral institution said. “Recently signalled fiscal support may lift short-term growth but longer-term growth will depend on deeper structural reforms,” the World Bank said. “China has led growth in the region for more than three decades, but its relative growth is likely to slow down in future,” it added. Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman With contributions from Jonathan Yee ($1 = CNY7.07)

09-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Massive overcapacity along some value chains is likely to drive further fundamental shifts in the global chemicals landscape, with differentiation and innovation key to remaining competitive. Slow demand in lengthy trough cycle conditions and the massive ramp-ups in production capacity seen in China since the start of the 2020s have left economics ”almost unsustainable” in some cases, according to Ketan Joshi, president for intermediates at BASF and member of the European Petrochemicals Association (EPCA)’s board of directors. “In several value chains, the overcapacities built up in China make the situation in China almost unsustainable when it comes to economics, which I assume will trigger some fundamental changes in the markets globally,” he said. “Differentiation and competitive offerings will be imperative for survival.” The radically changed competitive conditions for heavy industry in Europe relative to elsewhere in the world has highlighted the sluggishness of some industrial players to adapt to the new conditions. “I do believe that manufacturing industry in Europe became complacent to a certain extent in the past decade, so it is now really about trying to get back that innovation spirit,” he said. “If you talk about what the industry can do, then this is what the industry has in its own hand to drive, to differentiate and create a compelling value proposition for customers,” he added. BASF has taken a detailed look at its operations, particularly those in its Verbund site in Ludwigshafen, over the course of this year. Following the announcement in August of the closure of its Ludwigshafen adipic acid plant and several units, in the wake of a complete evaluation of the prospects for all units at the complex, further measures could yet be taken. The results of that deep dive were fairly promising, with 78% of Ludwigshafen production plants deemed competitive, while 16% were evaluated as facing short- to mid-term competitive risks and 6% seen as less competitive in the future, according to site director Katja Scharpwinkel. While the bulk of the company’s assets at its home based have been judged to be competitive, the current global market remains a challenging one, with manufacturing productivity continuing bearish and demand upticks still fairly minor. The most recent purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for the eurozone shows manufacturing hitting a seven-month low in September, with conditions in Germany especially challenging, and the service sector also showing more marked signs of a slowdown. Chemicals demand slightly outpaced the general industrial market in the first half of the year, according to data from industry body Cefic, but remains substantially below recovery levels. BASF itself has guided for a slow recovery, with no big step changes in the subdued upward demand curve, and conditions remain challenging for intermediates. “From an intermediates perspective, it's been a challenging year, with demand developments remaining uncertain until the end of 2024, and no clear sign of any broad recovery. Customers continue to buy very cautiously, mainly keeping inventories very low, and competitive pressure stays high,” Joshi said. “Geopolitical uncertainties are driving large fluctuations in basic commodities, which I think is a major driver in markets at present, and that poses a major challenge for capex-heavy industries to really make decisions,” he added. While the macroeconomic picture is crucial to allow for a stronger rebound, companies need to adapt and innovate to meet the current challenges, he added. “To galvanize a broad recovery, several factors are necessary:  stable economic conditions play a crucial role in boosting investment, and increasing consumer confidence is necessary to drive consumption and spending,” he said. “But also continued innovation is vital to meet the evolving customer needs, and that is really what is required to stay competitive in the market.” “Traditionally, Europe led the industry in innovation, so it is important to get back the focus,” he added. Decarbonising production and offering a wider range of sustainable solutions will be core differentiators for the manufacturing sector, particularly as consumer tastes continue to evolve, according to Joshi. Strong pushes on research and scaling up production capacities for new markets and new products are difficult when producers are moving to aggressively cut costs and financing costs remain high. Many European countries, including Germany, have slipped down the international rankings of research and development spending and innovation, and the prospect of making big financial bets when markets are still forming remains a daunting prospect. “Without a doubt, moving towards more sustainability requires additional effort across the board. As I said, it cannot be an individual thing,” Joshi said. The European Parliament seems at present to be attempting to adapt to that challenge, without committing to the kinds of green subsidy frameworks seen in the US. Re-elected president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has promised a clean industrial deal, and to cut red tape around permitting, although the pushback faced by BASF for its proposed cathode active materials plant in Finland and INEOS’ new cracker in Antwerp shows the continuing difficulty of building new production in the EU. While the policy specifics are still to be unveiled, the pronouncements by the new parliament are promising, according to Joshi, but permitting remains a real issue in Europe. “Right now, over 80 gigawatt of forthcoming wind capacity is stuck in lengthy permitting process in Europe, and eight times more that of solar energy capacity is in the permitting process compared to what is under construction,” he said. The ambition of the Commission’s targets, both for carbon reduction and for the use of non-fossil fuels and feedstocks, has been stymied to an extent by the continual revision of those goals, making it difficult for companies to commit to specific plans. The chemicals sector has one investment cycle left before the 2030 decarbonisation targets of a 55% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 1990 come into effect. The fact that new large-scale revisions to green industrial policy are still being drafted makes deploying that capital a challenge. “When ambitious targets regarding plastic recycling and accepted recycling technologies are reviewed again and again by governments, parliaments and regulatory authorities, it creates huge uncertainty in the chemical industry and delays investments,” he said. “We need a consistent policy, and we need those policies to stick to what the industry has already embarked into, so that the investments can happen,” he added. The roadmap for the evolution of the circular economy is also yet to be written for the chemicals sector. Companies looking at new markets often use acquisitions as a way in, but owning waste recycling infrastructure does not necessarily make sense for a chemical producer. Greater collaboration along these new value chains is necessary, and not all early steps may prove in hindsight to have been the best-optimised choices. The important thing is to start to make those steps, according to Joshi. “We cannot just aim for perfect solutions from the outset. We need to start implementing things and then improve as we go forward,” he said. “Partnership with waste suppliers, brand owners, technology leaders, will be required, because not everything can be done by a single player in the industry,” he added. The EPCA assembly runs until 10 October. Interview article by Tom Brown Thumbnail image source: Shutterstock

09-Oct-2024