Acrylonitrile

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US delay of its proposed 50% tariffs on EU imports will still leave its polymers vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. The new deadline is 9 July. For US exports, the EU has already drafted a list of targets for retaliatory tariffs, part of its second round of €95 billion in tariffs on US imports. A full list of all the proposed imports can be found here. This is on top of the first round of €21 billion in tariffs on US imports. A full list of all the proposed imports can be found here. In all, the EU could impose tariffs on nearly every major polymer from the US, including polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The EU is also considering tariffs on US imports of surfactants, fatty acids, fatty alcohols, and tall oil, a feedstock used to make renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable naphtha. The following table lists some of the many plastics and chemicals proposed on the EU's second round of tariffs. CN CODE DESCRIPTION 28151200 sodium hydroxide "caustic soda" in aqueous solution "soda lye or liquid soda" 29053926 butane-1,4-diol or tetramethylene glycol [1,4-butanediol] having a bio-based carbon content of 100% by mass 29091910 tert-butyl ethyl ether (ethyl-tertio-butyl-ether, etbe) 29152100 acetic acid 29153200 vinyl acetate 29291000 isocyanates 32061100 pigments and preparations based on titanium dioxide of a kind used for colouring any material or produce colorant preparations, containing >= 80% by weight of titanium dioxide calculated on the dry matter (excl. preparations of heading 3207, 3208, 3209, 3210, 3212, 3213 and 3215) 32061900 pigments and preparations based on titanium dioxide of a kind used for colouring any material or produce colorant preparations, containing < 80% by weight of titanium dioxide calculated on the dry matter (excl. preparations of heading 3207, 3208, 3209, 3210, 3212, 3213 and 3215) 34023100 linear alkylbenzene sulphonic acids and their salts 34023990 anionic organic surface-active agents, whether or not put up for retail sale (excl. linear alkylbenzene sulphonic acids and their salts, and aqueous solution containing by weight 30-50% of disodium alkyl [oxydi(benzenesulphonate)]) 34024100 cationic organic surface-active agents, whether or not put up for retail sale 34024200 non-ionic organic surface-active agents, whether or not put up for retail sale (excl. soap) 34024900 organic surface-active agents, whether or not put up for retail sale (excl. soap, anionic, cationic and non-ionic) 34025010 surface-active preparations put up for retail sale (excl. organic surface-active preparations in the form of bars, cakes, moulded pieces or shapes, and organic surface-active products and preparations for washing the skin in the form of liquid or cream) 38030010 crude tall oil 38030090 tall oil, whether or not refined (excl. crude tall oil) 38170050 linear alkylbenzene 38170080 mixed alkylbenzenes and mixed alkylnaphthalenes, produced by the alkylation of benzene and naphthalene (excl. linear alkylbenzene and mixed isomers of cyclic hydrocarbons) 38231100 stearic acid, industrial 38231200 oleic acid, industrial 38231300 tall oil fatty acids, industrial 38231910 fatty acids, distilled 38231930 fatty acid distillate 38231990 fatty acids, industrial, monocarboxylic; acid oils from refining (excl. stearic acid, oleic acid and tall oil fatty acids, distilled fatty acids and fatty acid distillate) 38237000 fatty alcohols, industrial 38260010 fatty-acid mono-alkyl esters, containing by weight => 96,5 % of esters "famae" 38260090 biodiesel and mixtures thereof, not containing or containing < 70 % by weight of petroleum oils or oils obtained from bituminous minerals (excl. fatty-acid mono-alkyl esters containing by weight >= 96,5 % of esters "famae") 39013000 ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymers, in primary forms 39019080 polymers of ethylene, in primary forms (excl. polyethylene, ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymers, ethylene-alpha-olefins copolymers having a specific gravity of < 0,94, ionomer resin consisting of a salt of a terpolymer of ethylene with isobutyl acrylate and methacrylic acid and a-b-a block copolymer of ethylene of polystyrene, ethylene-butylene copolymer and polystyrene, containing by weight <= 35% of styrene, in blocks of irregular shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes and similar bulk forms) 39021000 polypropylene, in primary forms 39023000 propylene copolymers, in primary forms 39029010 a-b-a block copolymer of propylene or of other olefins, of polystyrene, ethylene-butylene copolymer and polystyrene, containing by weight <= 35% of styrene, in blocks of irregular shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes and similar bulk forms 39029020 polybut-1-ene, a copolymer of but-1-ene with ethylene containing by weight <= 10% of ethylene, or a blend of polybut-1-ene with polyethylene and/or polypropylene containing by weight <= 10% of polyethylene and/or <= 25% of polypropylene, in blocks of irregular shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes and similar bulk forms 39031100 expansible polystyrene, in primary forms 39031900 polystyrene, in primary forms (excl. expansible) 39032000 styrene-acrylonitrile copolymers "san", in primary forms 39033000 acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymers "abs", in primary forms 39039090 polymers of styrene, in primary forms (excl. polystyrene, styrene-acrylonitrile copolymers "san", acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene "abs", copolymer solely of styrene with allyl alcohol, of an acetyl value of >= 175 and brominated polystyrene, containing by weight >= 58% but <= 71% of bromine, in blocks of irregular shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes and similar bulk forms) 39041000 poly"vinyl chloride", in primary forms, not mixed with any other substances 39042100 non-plasticised poly"vinyl chloride", in primary forms, mixed with other substances 39042200 plasticised poly"vinyl chloride", in primary forms, mixed with other substances 39051200 poly"vinyl acetate", in aqueous dispersion 39051900 poly"vinyl acetate", in primary forms (excl. in aqueous dispersion) 39052100 vinyl acetate copolymers, in aqueous dispersion 39052900 vinyl acetate copolymers, in primary forms (excl. in aqueous dispersion) 39053000 poly"vinyl alcohol", in primary forms, whether or not containing unhydrolyzed acetate groups 39061000 poly"methyl methacrylate", in primary forms 39071000 polyacetals, in primary forms 39072911 polyethylene glycols, in primary forms 39072920 polyether alcohols, in primary forms (excl. bis(polyoxyethylene) methylphosphonate and polyethylene glycols) 39072999 polyethers in primary forms (excl. polyether alcohols, polyacetals and copolymer of 1- chloro-2,3-epoxypropane with ethylene oxide) 39073000 epoxide resins, in primary forms 39074000 polycarbonates, in primary forms 39075000 alkyd resins, in primary forms 39076100 poly"ethylene terephthalate", in primary forms, having a viscosity number of >= 78 ml/g 39076900 poly"ethylene terephthalate", in primary forms, having a viscosity number of < 78 ml/g 39079110 unsaturated liquid polyesters, in primary forms (excl. polycarbonates, alkyd resins, poly"ethylene terephthalate" and poly"lactic acid") 39079190 unsaturated polyesters, in primary forms (excl. liquid, and polycarbonates, alkyd resins, poly"ethylene terephthalate" and poly"lactic acid") 39079980 polyesters, saturated, in primary forms (excl. polycarbonates, alkyd resins, poly"ethylene terephthalate", poly"lactic acid", poly"ethylene naphthalene-2,6-dicarboxylate" and thermoplastic liquid crystal aromatic polyester copolymers) 39089000 polyamides, in primary forms (excl. polyamides-6, -11, -12, -6,6, -6,9, -6,10 and -6,12) 39091000 urea resins and thiourea resins, in primary forms 39092000 melamine resins, in primary forms 39093100 poly"methylene phenyl isocyanate" "crude mdi, polymeric mdi", in primary forms 39094000 phenolic resins, in primary forms 39095010 polyurethane of 2,2'-"tert-butylimino"diethanol and 4,4'-methylenedicyclohexyl diisocyanate, in the form of a solution in n,n-dimethylacetamide, containing by weight >= 50% of polymer 39095090 polyurethanes in primary forms (excl. polyurethane of 2,2'-"tert-butylimino"diethanol and 4,4'-methylenedicyclohexyl diisocyanate, in the form of a solution in n,ndimethylacetamide) Source: EU CN CODE DESCRIPTION 39011010 linear polyethylene with a specific gravity of < 0,94, in primary forms 39011090 polyethylene with a specific gravity of < 0,94, in primary forms (excl. linear polyethylene) 39012010 polyethylene in blocks of irregular shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes and similar bulk forms, of a specific gravity of >= 0,958 at 23°c, containing <= 50 mg/kg of aluminium, <= 2 mg/kg of calcium, of chromium, of iron, of nickel and of titanium each and <= 8 mg/kg of vanadium, for the manufacture of chlorosulphonated polyethylene 39012090 polyethylene with a specific gravity of >= 0,94, in primary forms (excl. polyethylene in blocks of irregular shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes and similar bulk forms, of a specific gravity of >= 0,958 at 23°c, containing <= 50 mg/kg of aluminium, <= 2 mg/kg of calcium, of chromium, of iron, of nickel and of titanium each and <= 8 mg/kg of vanadium, for the manufacture of chlorosulphonated polyethylene) 39014000 ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers, having a specific gravity of < 0,94 , in primary forms 39081000 polyamides-6, -11, -12, -6,6, -6,9, -6,10 or -6,12, in primary forms Source: EU

27-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical plants along the US Gulf Coast will face another active hurricane season, but any potential disruptions will be partially if not entirely offset by excess global capacity and weaker demand growth. Meteorologists expect up to 10 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during this year's hurricane season, which starts in June and lasts through November The global supply glut of plastics and chemicals will continue in 2025 and beyond Global plastic and chemical demand will weaken because of tariffs and a prolonged manufacturing downturn BUSY HURRICANE SEASONMeteorologists expect a busy hurricane season as shown in the following table: AccuWeather CSU NOAA 30-Year Average Hurricanes 7-10 9 6-10 7 Major hurricanes 3-5 4 3-5 3 Total named storms 13-18 17 13-19 14 *Major hurricanes have wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour (178 km/hour) Sources: AccuWeather, Colorado State University (CSU), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics. Hurricanes can shut down LNG terminals, most of which are concentrated along the Gulf Coast. If the outages last long enough, it can cause a local glut of natural gas and a decline in prices. US prices for ethane tend to rise and fall with those of natural gas, so a prolonged shutdown of LNG terminals would lower feedstock costs – especially if the hurricane also shuts down ethane crackers. Petrochemical plants outside of the US are becoming increasingly reliant on that country's exports of ethane, ethylene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a feedstock for crackers and for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units. Most of these terminals are on the Gulf Coast, leaving them vulnerable to disruptions caused by hurricanes. HOTTER SUMMER COULD REDUCE THROUGHPUT AT GAS PLANTSExtremely high temperatures can reduce the throughput of Texan natural gas processing plants, which extract ethane and other natural gas liquids (NGLs) from raw natural gas. Such reductions took place in 2024 during the peak summer months of August and September, when temperatures are typically at their highest in many parts of Texas. Texas has natural gas processing plants in the western and fractionation hubs in the eastern parts of the state. For both regions, summer temperatures should be 1-2°F higher than normal, according to AccuWeather, a meteorology firm. That amounts to 0.6-1.0°C higher. CHEM OVERCAPACITY GROWS BIGGERThe effect of any shutdowns of chemical plants will be blunted by excess global capacity. Companies have continued to start up new plants, despite the oversupply of plastics and chemicals. ICIS FORECASTS WEAKER 2025 DEMAND GROWTHAny disruptions to chemical production would take place amid weaker demand growth. ICIS forecasts that 2025 demand growth for most commodity plastics will slow from 2024 and remain well below levels in 2018 and earlier. The following chart ICIS past demand growth rates and forecasts for 2025. Source: ICIS Growth rates are slower in part due to uncertainty caused by US trade policy. ICIS expects global GDP to expand by 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024. Global manufacturing is expected to contract globally. The following breaks down forecasts for national purchasing managers' indices (PMI). Anything below 50 indicates contraction. Sources: Institute for Supply Management, S&P Global and JP Morgan RESUMPTION OF TARIFFS WOULD FURTHER WEAKEN DEMANDIn July, the US could resume imposing its higher reciprocal tariffs against much of the world, including the EU, following a 90-day pause announced in April. The EU is preparing a list of retaliatory tariffs that covers many US imports of commodity chemicals and plastics, including the following: Caustic soda Acetic Acid Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) Polyethylene (PE) Polypropylene (PP) Polystyrene (PS) Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) The US and EU may extend the pause or reach a trade agreement that would do away with the need for retaliatory tariffs. But if the two sides fail to reach an agreement, then the EU's retaliatory would likely reduce demand for US plastics and chemicals. Demand for US plastics and chemicals could take another hit in mid-August if the US and China resume triple-digit tariffs following their 90-day pause. The pause would expire right before hurricane season reaches its peak in the US. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a hurricane. Image by NOAA.

22-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Relatively stable demand and evolving global supply dynamics are expected in European ammonia and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets in 2025. In this latest podcast, global ammonia editor Sylvia Traganida and Europe ACN editor Nazif Nazmul share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Ammonia players are expecting European demand from the nitrates market to pick up soon Availability is due to tighten with scheduled turnarounds in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia Ammonia prices globally are softening due to a lack of major demand Geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges dampen prospects of ACN derivatives demand resurgence Balanced-to-long ACN supply dynamics anticipated to endure

20-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–European acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets are facing ongoing demand weakness in 2025, as well as uncertainty in global supply and the potential impact expected from US tariffs. In this latest podcast, Europe ABS market editor Stephanie Wix and markets editor for the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations ahead. Demand expected to remain stable at a weak level through 2025 Macroeconomic challenges persist, players monitor US tariff situation Impact of ongoing antidumping investigation on ABS imports from South Korea, Taiwan ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products. ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibers for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

16-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tariff deal that the US has reached with China did not eliminate the duties on steel, aluminium and auto parts, all of which could lower automobile production and reduce demand for the plastics and chemicals used to make the vehicles. The US maintained its 25% sectoral tariffs on Chinese imports of steel, aluminium and auto parts. It levies the same tariffs on imports from much of the world. Imports from Canada and Mexico can avoid the tariffs if they comply with the nations' trade agreement, known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Oxford Economics expects US auto production will fall by -2.0% to -0.9% year on year in 2025. Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, lowered its US auto sales forecast by 6.7% and warned of production cuts. WHY ARE AUTOS IMPORTANT TO CHEMSAutomobiles made in North American contain an average of 198 kg of plastic, according to ICIS, making them an important end market for producers. Polypropylene (PP) is the most commonly used resin in North American automobiles followed by polyurethanes and nylon, as shown in the following charts. In addition, automobiles are large end markets for paints and coatings. In all, the typical automobile has nearly $4,000 worth of chemistry WHAT CHEMS SAY ABOUT AUTOSCelanese, whose Engineered Materials segment is heavily dependent on autos, stressed the uncertainty about the effects that tariffs will have on this key end market during the second half of the year. It will prepare by reducing inventory, controlling costs and lowering operating rates if warranted by demand weakness. Polyurethanes producer Huntsman is seeing automobile build rates drop low-single digit percentages. By the time order patterns trickle through original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and down to chemical companies, Huntsman is seeing double-digit drops in some order patterns. AdvanSix warned that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting the market for nylon and other engineering plastics. Axalta Coating Systems, which makes auto paint, warned of a $50 million gross annualized charge from tariffs. Axalta lowered its 2025 sales guidance to $5,300-5,375 million from $5,350-5,400 million. Earnings guidance remained unchanged. Steps that Axalta could take to offset a portion of that hit include insourcing production capacity to domestic plants; sourcing raw materials locally; reformulating products; managing strategic inventory; and executing pricing actions. TARIFFS RAISE AUTO COSTS, THREATEN OUTPUTTariffs on auto inputs will increase costs for vehicles, and producers will likely pass through a portion of those higher costs to customers. The size of those cost pass throughs will play a large role in the tariffs' effects on chemical demand. Higher prices for automobiles will discourage sales. Lower sales will reduce auto production and cut demand for plastics and chemicals used to make those vehicles. THE EFFECT SO FAR ON AUTO BUILDSPrior to the announcement of the US and China trade deal, Ford estimated that the gross cost impact from the tariffs is $2.5 billion. Among that, half will come from imported and exported parts as well as the effect that steel and aluminium tariffs will have on domestic prices. The rest is from imported vehicles. Already, Stellantis halted production for two weeks at a plant in Windsor, Ontario Province, Canada, because of tariffs. AUTO'S EXPOSURE TO TARIFFSThe US auto industry's exposure to tariffs is not trivial because the country imports enormous amounts of auto parts, steel and aluminium. Many of these products are subject to 25% sectoral tariffs or 10% baseline tariffs. More than 50% of the content of cars assembled in the US is imported, according to a 3 May CNN article, citing US government statistics. AUTO PART TARIFFSThe following chart breaks down 2024 general imports by country for auto parts under the 8708 code of the harmonized tariff schedule (HTS). Figures are in billions of dollars. Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) Not all auto parts will be hit by the 25% tariffs. Some parts are excluded. Those from Mexico and Canada will escape the levy if they comply with the USMCA. STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFSThe following chart shows 2024 general imports of iron and steel under the HTS codes 7206-7224. These codes cover iron and nonalloy steel; stainless steel; and other alloy steel. The chart breaks down the imports by country and lists the value in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC Metal imports from the UK will be exempt under a recent trade deal, as indicated by a press conference in that country. Imports from Canada and Mexico would be exempt from these tariffs if they comply with the USMCA. Not all of these steel imports would be used in automobiles But the chart does illustrate that the US imports iron and steel from many countries that will be covered by the 25% tariffs. The following chart provides a similar breakdown for 2024 general imports of articles of iron and steel under Chapter 72. Figures are in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC The following chart provides the country breakdown for 2024 general imports of aluminium and articles thereof under Chapter 76. Figures are in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC OTHER THREATS TO DOMESTIC AUTO PRODUCTIONTariffs are taxes, and taxes reduce economic growth. Slower GDP growth translates to lower sales and production. ICIS expects that US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024. Growth in 2026 could be 1.7%. The country has a 34% chance of slipping into a recession in the next 12 months. Many US consumers bought automobiles to avoid paying tariffs. Those purchases made ahead of the tariffs will come at the expense of future sales. US SELF-SUFFICIENT FOR MANY PLASTICS, CHEMS USED IN AUTOSMany of the plastics and chemicals used by the US auto industry are produced in abundance in the country, and that will limit customers' exposure to the nation's tariffs for those products used in automobiles. The US is self-sufficient in polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polyethylene (PE), a plastic used in packaging and fuel tanks. Nylon is excluded from the tariffs. Polyurethanes, the second most common polymer used in automobiles, are made with methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), and a substantial amount of US MDI imports comes from China. The US also relies on imports of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), much of which comes from Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan. Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten, Joseph Chang and Jonathan Lopez Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows automobile. Image by Shutterstock)

15-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Sluggish domestic demand weighed on Japan’s petrochemical industry, resulting in reduced production volumes in 2024 compared with previous years, according to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association (JPCA). 2024 ethylene output falls 6.3% Production of five major plastics shrink by 5% Japan economy forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2025 “Although some crackers in Southeast Asia and East Asia are reducing production, there are plans for capacity increases in crackers that significantly exceed demand in China,” JPCA said in a report prepared for the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025. The conference is being held in Bangkok, Thailand from 15-16 May. Operating rates of crackers in Japan are expected to remain lowered, as with previous years, JPCA said. Japan's ethylene production in 2024 fell 6.3% year on year to 4.99 million tonnes, as domestic crackers have operated at below 90% of capacity since August 2022, with the monthly average run rate falling below 80% five times in 2024. Japan’s real GDP growth rate in 2024 was 0.1% amid weak exports, neutral growth in private consumption, and a slight increase in government consumption. For the whole of 2024, the country’s total production of five major plastics – namely, linear density polyethylene (PE), high density PE (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – declined to 5.7 million tonnes, lower by 5.2% from 2023. Production (in thousand tonnes) Product 2024 2023 % change Ethylene 4,989 5,324 -6.3 LDPE 1,160 1,219 -4.8 HDPE 656 665 -1.4 PP 1,935 2,075 -6.8 PS 549 564 -2.7 PVC 1,406 1,496 -6.0 Styrene monomer (SM) 1,297 1,428 -9.2 Ethylene glycol (EG) 276 264 4.6 Acrylonitrile (ACN) 303 341 -11.2 Sources: METI, Japan Styrene Industry Association (PS, SM) and Vinyl Environmental Council (PVC) Domestic demand as ethylene equivalent in 2024  inched up by 1.4% to 3.92 million tonnes, according to JPCA data. While the global economy is expected to grow steadily in 2025, there is a risk of deterioration in the global economy and a corresponding decline in demand due to geopolitical issues, JPCA said, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the tariff policy of the US Trump administration. The latter has caused costs of raw material prices to soar, JPCA said. Meanwhile, Japan's real GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to accelerate to 1.2%, supported by increased exports, sustained growth in personal consumption, and increases in capital investment, said JPCA. Higher wage hikes in 2025 should help boost domestic consumption, it said. In the report, JPCA called on the petrochemical industry to adopt new roles and responsibilities in achieving carbon neutrality and advancing a recycling-oriented society. The report outlined a two-stage timeline: first, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from existing facilities by immediately deploying currently available technologies; and second, to establish sustainable development goals by gradually introducing new technologies into society. “Not only corporate efforts but … collaboration and system design throughout the supply chain are required,” JPCA said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

15-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 25 April. China PC import prices near five-year low on poor demand By Li Peng Seng 21-Apr-25 12:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Import prices of polycarbonates (PC) in China sank to their lowest in nearly five years recently and the bleakness will linger as demand will stay slow due to trade wars and ample supplies. US LPG supply diverted from China triggers sharp propane price fall in Japan, South Korea By Jiayi Chang 21-Apr-25 19:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US-China tariff dispute has severely disrupted established global energy trade flows. The abrupt suspension of US liquid petroleum gas (LPG) exports to China, a key trade route, has led to a sharp collapse in propane prices across Japan and South Korea. INSIGHT: China PP capacity expansion to peak in 2025; trade war to hit supply By Lucy Shuai 22-Apr-25 11:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global and Chinese polypropylene (PP) capacity additions will peak in 2025 and then slow down, with the US-China trade war expected to affect overall supply. S Korea's Apr export decline point to rising challenges from US tariffs By Nurluqman Suratman 22-Apr-25 12:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's exports fell by 5.2% year on year in the first 20 days of April, an indication of the significant impact of US tariffs on Asia's fourth-largest economy. US tariffs enlarge woes in Asia chemical freight market By Hwee Hwee Tan 23-Apr-25 15:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vast uncertainty stemming from the US’ tariff moves has squashed hopes of any near-term recovery for Asia chemical tanker market. Cost push, tight supply buoy up few Asia petrochemicals amid general slump By Jonathan Yee 23-Apr-25 16:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–While the US-led trade war has roiled Asia’s petrochemicals market, sending prices of some on free fall, a selected few products have bucked the trend due to rising feedstock cost and tightening supply, but the support may be temporary amid global economic headwinds. PODCAST: Asia propylene market seeks balance in tariff chaos By Seymour Chenxia 23-Apr-25 16:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's propylene (C3) market is likely to see tighter short-term supply as China's propane dehydrogenation (PDH) producers now face surging propane import costs because of US-China tariff hikes. Downstream demand and end-user consumption could be negatively impacted by tariff barriers. INSIGHT: Sluggish demand weighs on Asia C3 despite propane hikes By Julia Tan 23-Apr-25 22:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tighter supply from end-May onwards is likely to support near-term Asia propylene (C3) pricing on expectations that tariffs levied on US-origin propane will make it untenable for Chinese PDH units to sustain existing operating rates. Saudi Arabia, India plan to jointly build two oil refineries By Priya Jestin 24-Apr-25 17:05 MUMBAI (ICIS)–Two oil refineries will be built in India as part of Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investment pledged to the south Asian nation which would cover cooperation in multiple areas, including energy and petrochemicals. Asia ACN sentiment turns bearish on weak China market By Corey Chew 25-Apr-25 12:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic acrylonitrile (ACN) market has weakened as Shandong Yulong’s new capacity resulted in an oversupply amid weak demand. INSIGHT: Trade tensions to hasten Canadian low carbon ammonia exports to Asia, hitting prospects of US projects By Bee Lin Chow 25-Apr-25 15:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Canadian ammonia exports are exempted from the prohibitively high levy imposed on Canadian exports to the US, thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

28-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascend Performance Materials was already reeling from overcapacity in China and an industrial recession when its main complex caught on fire and a freeze shut down its operations in Texas – events that contributed to the bankruptcy of the nylon 6,6 producer. Ascend Performance Materials filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 on Monday. The filing will allow Ascend to continue operations and protect it from creditor lawsuits while it reorganizes its finances. Ascend already has support from its lenders, and it expects to emerge from bankruptcy protection in six months. NYLON MARKET ALREADY STRUGGLING WITH OVERCAPACITYJohn Rogers, an analyst at Moody’s Ratings, noted how the entrance of China caused fundamental changes to the nylon market. “The issue for Ascend was the increased capacity in China by established western producers and domestic companies along with the ability of Chinese producers to now produce [adiponitrile] and [hexamethylene diamine], two key intermediates that have sustained Ascend’s margins during prior downturns.” Over the past six years, Chinese production capacity for chemical intermediates has grown by 93%, and downstream production by 64%, said Robert Del Genio, Ascend's chief restructuring officer. He made his comments in court documents. Many of these new market entrants from China sought to gain market share by selling at a cash loss or pursuant to subsidies from the Chinese government, Del Genio said. Ascend was faced with grim choices. It could cut prices or lose customers to these new entrants. Meanwhile, a prolonged recession has struck manufacturing, a key end market for the nylon produced by Ascend. Many of the company's key end markets have been slow to recover to pre-pandemic levels of production because of destocking, inflation, labor shortages and supply-chain issues, Del Genio said. Weak demand has caused prices for nylon 6,6 to fall and Ascend's EBITDA margin to approach its lowest level in almost a decade, Del Genio said. For chemical intermediates, long-term take-or-pay contracts signed when times were good have turned into money losers under these tougher economic conditions. Ascend was forced to sell at a loss under these contracts. CLOSURE OF BARGE CHAMBER ADDS MORE EXPENSESAscend's main inland barge chamber at Wilson Lock had been closed after cracks were discovered in the lock gates in September 2024, Del Genio said. Wilson Lock is the only way that barge shipments can enter and leave the company's operations in Decatur, Alabama, Del Genio said. With Wilson Lock shut down, the Decatur site has had to rely on trucks to ship acrylonitrile (ACN) from Texas and to move adiponitrile (ADN) to Pensacola. "The use of a trucking alternative has had a $4 million impact on the company’s first two quarters of financials in 2025 in addition to significantly increasing transit times," Del Genio said. Trucking also added delays, which left Ascend's Decatur and Pensacola operations vulnerable to disruptions, Del Genio said. To prevent this, Ascend bought ACN and ADN from third parties at a premium, adding an additional $4 million in expenses. FIRE, FREEZE PROVE TOO MUCHIn December 2024, a fire started at Ascend's main nylon complex in Pensacola, Florida, which disrupted operations until the middle of February 2025, Del Genio said. The fire cost Ascend $6 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). About a month after the fire, sub-freezing temperatures hit Texas, where Ascend makes hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and ACN at its complex in Chocolate Bayou, Del Genio said. As a proactive step, Ascend shut down its operations at Chocolate Bayou to prevent mechanical failure and threats to the environment. The shutdown of Chocolate Bayou led to a cascade of side effects. Ascend's operations in Decatur, Alabama, needed the ACN from Chocolate Bayou to continue running, Del Genio said. The shutdown of Chocolate Bayou forced Ascend to buy ACN on the open market so it could keep Decatur running. Those purchases further depleted the company's cash reserves. Overall, the closures of Chocolate Bayou, Pensacola and Wilson Lock lowered Ascends Q1 EBITDA by $21 million, Del Genio said. HEADING TOWARDS BANKRUPTCYIn response to a worsening liquidity crisis, Ascend increased its vendor payment deferrals. By late February, the company's past-due accounts-payable wall exceeded $110 million. Vendors responded by demanding cash in advance, tightening payment terms, threatening to remove rental equipment and freezing supplies of goods and services. The company was approaching a breaking point. Ascend owed money to companies that provided critical goods and services. If these companies cut off Ascend, it could bring the company's plants to a halt. Ascend arranged bridge loan financing that gave the company enough time to file for bankruptcy protection in US District Court, Texas Southern District. The case number is 25-90127. (Thumbnail shows nylon. Image by Shutterstock)

22-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Arab Gulf (AG) ammonia annual average export price is forecast to ease further this year (see Chart 1) as producers are expected to keep prices competitive to maintain market shares in Asia, particularly as weak Asian demand for industrial applications including acrylonitrile (ACN) and caprolactam (capro) have capped ammonia prices. AG ammonia producers are expected to maintain its export prices in 2025 at just below parity with southeast Asian producer with FOB AG at around 97% of FOB SE Asia prices (see Chart 2) to optimize returns while keeping market shares in their key India and Taiwan markets. AG ammonia producers’ netbacks in Taiwan and India in 2025 are projected to return to levels similar to 2020 before the Russian-Ukraine war with AG FOB at around 89% and 84% of CFR Taiwan and CFR India prices, respectively (see Chart 3) Asia remains an important market for AG producers particularly when their returns from Europe have been shrinking. AG ammonia producers’ FOB netbacks from Europe is expected to remain constrained in 2025 with the FOB AG annual price hovering at around 63% of the CFR NWE annual price, following two years of higher returns in 2022 and 2023. (see Chart 4) AG ammonia producers have not been exporting much to Europe except for 2022 and 2023 when outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russian exports created a window of opportunity for AG producers. (See Chart 5) Europe ammonia import prices are expected to remain elevated as high natural gas prices had led several ammonia plants in the region to be permanently shut in 2022, with the ammonia prices remaining tied to the prices of key exporters Trinidad and Algeria. Egypt also exports ammonia to Europe, but its production has been susceptible to disruptions caused by natural gas shortages as seen in Q3 last year and February this year. Europe import prices are expected to ease if Russia resumes exports to Europe hence a burning question for importers is when Togliattiazot’s (TOAZ's) export terminal at Russia’s Taman Port would start loading ammonia. TOAZ is part of the Uralchem Group, and the terminal was expected to start loading ammonia in Q1 this year. Ammonia is a feedstock for inorganic fertilizers such as urea and ammonium sulphates and chemicals such as acrylonitrile (ACN). With contributions from Song Hea Beom, Sylvia Traganida

28-Mar-2025

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–Here is a summary of chemical market stories, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. AFPM ‘25: US tariffs, retaliation risk heightens uncertainty for chemicals, economies The threat of additional US tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and their potential impact is fostering a heightened level of uncertainty, dampening consumer, business and investor sentiment, along with clouding the 2025 outlook for chemicals and economies. AFPM '25: New US president brings chems regulatory relief, tariffs The new administration of US President Donald Trump is giving chemical companies a break on regulations and proposing tariffs on the nation's biggest trade partners and on the world. AFPM ’25: Shippers weigh tariffs, port charges on global supply chains Whether it is dealing with on-again, off-again tariffs, new charges at US ports for carriers with China-flagged vessels in their fleets, or booking passage through the Panama Canal, participants at this year's IPC have plenty to talk about. AFPM ’25: LatAm chemicals face uncertain outlook amid oversupply, trade policy woes Latin American petrochemicals face ongoing challenges from oversupplied markets and poor demand, with survival increasingly dependent on government protectionist measures. AFPM ’25: US propane supply long; ethane prices rising The US petrochemical industry is seeing a glut of upstream propane supply and rising prices for key feedstock ethane. AFPM ’25: Weak demand takes toll on US ethylene as supply concerns ease Persistently poor demand, underpinned by worries over global tariff policies and a sluggish US economy are putting downward pressure on US ethylene prices. AFPM ’25: US propylene demand weak despite recent supply disruptions Weak demand in the US propylene market has counterbalanced recent supply disruptions, pushing spot prices and sentiment lower. AFPM ’25: US BD supply lengthening; rubber demand optimistic US butadiene (BD) has been rather balanced in Q1 despite a couple of planned turnarounds and cracker outages limiting crude C4 deliveries, but supply is expected to lengthen, and demand is cautiously optimistic. AFPM ’25: US aromatics supply ample amid low demand Domestic supply of aromatics is ample and demand is relatively poor. AFPM ’25: US methanol exports, bunker fuel demand to grow, but domestic demand sentiment low US methanol participants’ outlook on the key downstream construction and automotive sectors has dimmed, but optimism continues for export growth and bunker fuel demand. AFPM ’25: Tariffs, weak demand weigh on US base oils Uncertain US trade policy paired with already weak finished lubricant demand weighs on base oil market sentiment. AFPM ’25: Trade policies dampening outlook for Americas PE The US polyethylene (PE) industry started 2025 with some early successes amid the backdrop of lower year-on-year GDP growth. Now, with the impact of volatile tariff policy on top of the aforementioned lower GDP forecast, the outlook for PE has fallen. AFPM '25: Tariffs to shape the trajectory of caustic soda in US and beyond The North American caustic soda market is facing continued headwinds coming via potential tariffs, a challenged PVC market and planned and unplanned outages. US President Donald Trump has threatened to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada and the EU as well as on products that are directly tied to caustic soda but has delayed enactment on multiple occasions. These delays have bred uncertainty in the near-term outlook, impacting markets in the US and beyond. AFPM '25: US PVC to face headwinds from tariffs, economy The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is facing continued headwinds as tariff-related uncertainties persist. The domestic PVC market is expected to grow between 1-3% in 2025 but continues to face challenges in housing and construction. Meanwhile, export markets continue to wrestle with the threat of protectionist policies and tariffs at home and abroad. AFPM ’25: US spot EG supply balanced-to-tight on heavy turnaround season; EO balanced Supply in the US ethylene glycols (EG) market is balanced-to-tight as the market is undergoing a heavy turnaround season. The US ethylene oxide (EO) market is balanced as demand from derivatives including surfactants is flat. AFPM ’25: US PET prices facing upward price pressure on tariffs, China’s antimony exports ban, peak seasonUS polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices continue to face volatility as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US PP volatility persists amid weak demand The US polypropylene (PP) market is facing weak demand, raw material volatility and tariff uncertainty. AFPM ’25: US ACN rationalization inevitable amid declining demand Production of acrylonitrile (ACN) in the US is being reduced or shuttered as already weak demand continues to fall and as downstream plants are shutting down. Changes to the supply/demand balance, trade flows and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US nylon trade flows shifting amid global capacity changes, tariff uncertainties US nylon imports and exports are changing as capacity becomes regionalized and geographically realigned. The subsequent changes to trade flows, price increase initiatives and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US ABS, PC face headwinds from closure and oversupply The US acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) markets are lackluster and oversupplied. Demand remains soft kicking off the year, and the closure of INEOS’s Addyston, Ohio, ABS facility and tariff uncertainties continue to pressure ABS and PC markets. AFPM ’25: US styrene market facing oversupply amid weak demand, trade uncertainty The US styrene market is transitioning from a period of supply tightness to one of potential oversupply, driven by weak derivative demand and the recent restart of Styrolution’s Bayport, Texas, unit. This return to full operation, coupled with subdued demand, suggests ample supply in the short term. AFPM ’25: US PS faces slow start to 2025 amid weak demand Domestic polystyrene (PS) demand started the year off weaker than expected, with limited restocking and slower markets. AFPM ’25: US phenol/acetone face challenging outlook heading into Q2 US phenol and acetone are grappling with a lot of moving pieces. AFPM ’25: US MMA facing new supply amid volatile demand heading into Q2 US methyl methacrylate (MMA) is facing evolving supply-and-demand dynamics. Roehm's new plant in Bay City, Texas, is in the final stage of start-up, but is not in operation yet. There is anticipation of sample product being available in Q2 for qualification purposes. AFPM ’25: US epoxy resins in flux amid duties, tariffs heading into Q2 US epoxy resins is grappling with changes in duties and trade policies. AFPM ’25: Acetic acid, VAM eyes impact of tariffs on demand, outages on supply The US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) markets are waiting to see what impact shifting trade and tariff policy will have on domestic and export demand, while disruptions are beginning to tighten VAM supply. AFPM '25: US etac, butac, glycol ethers markets focus on upcoming paints, coatings demand US ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and glycol ethers market participants are waiting to see if the upcoming paints and coatings season will reinvigorate demand that has been in a long-term slump. AFPM ’25: Low demand for US oxos, acrylates, plasticizers countering feedstock cost spikes US propylene derivatives oxo alcohols, acrylic acid, acrylate esters and plasticizers have been partly insulated from upstream costs spikes by low demand, focusing outlooks on volatile supply and uncertain demand. AFPM ’25: N Am expectations for H2 TiO2 demand rebound paused amid tariff implementations After initial expectations of stronger demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) in the latter half of 2025, the North American market is now in flux following escalating tariff talks. AFPM ’25: US IPA, MEK markets look to supplies, upstream costs US isopropanol (IPA) market has an eye on costs as upstream propylene supplies are volatile, while the US methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is evaluating the impact of global capacity reductions. AFPM ’25: US melamine prices continue to face upward pressure on duties, tight supply US melamine is experiencing upward pricing pressure, thanks in large part to antidumping and countervailing duty sanctions and tight domestic supply. AFPM '25: US polyurethane industry braces for cascade effect of tariffs US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US BDO market eyes costs, demand outlook uncertain US 1,4 butanediol (BDO) production costs have been mounting, and margins have been crunched. Supply is ample and demand has been lackluster. AFPM ’25: US propylene glycol demand begins softening after prior feedstock-driven uptick After a cold winter with strong demand for seasonal propylene glycol (PG) end-uses in antifreeze and de-icers in many parts of the US, demand is starting to cool. AFPM ’25: US MA sentiment cautious ahead of potentially volatile Q2 US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing a volatile economic backdrop. Spot feedstock normal butane has fallen below $1/gal in March due to the end of peak blending season and strong production. AFPM ’25: US PA, OX face trade uncertainty, production constraints US phthalic anhydride (PA) and orthoxylene (OX) demand remains relatively weak. Prices have been remaining flat and are expected to settle lower this month after losing mixed xylene (MX) price support and underlying crude oil price declines. AFPM '25: Tight feedstock availability to keep US fatty acids, alcohols firm despite demand woes Tight supplies and high prices for oleochemical feedstocks are expected to keep US oleochemicals prices relatively firm, as continued macroeconomic headwinds, including escalating trade tensions between the US and other countries, only further weigh on consumer sentiment and discourage players from taking long-term positions. AFPM '25: Historic drop in biodiesel production to keep US glycerine relatively firm A drop in US biodiesel production to levels not seen since Q1 2017 is likely to keep the floor on US glycerine prices relatively firm through at least H1 as imports of both crude and refined material fail to fully offset the short-term shortfalls in domestic supply. PRC ’25: US R-PET demand to fall short of 2025 expectations, but still see slow growth As the landmark year, 2025, swiftly passes, many within the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) industry doubt the demand and market growth promised by voluntary brand goals and regulatory post-consumer recycled (PCR) content minimums will come to fruition. PRC ’25: US pyrolysis recycling players churning through regulatory, economic uncertainty As both regulatory and economic landscapes continue to change, production and commercialization progress among pyrolysis based plastic recyclers continues to be mixed. Pyrolysis, a thermal depolymerization/conversion technology which targets polyolefin-heavy mixed plastic waste, or tires, is expected to become the dominant form of chemical recycling over the next decade. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Recycled Plastics topic page

22-Mar-2025