Base oils

LONDON (ICIS)– European imports of Russian gas hinge on US or Russian decisions whether to allow payments for deliveries, a sanctions specialist told ICIS. Alexander Kolyandr, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and former strategist at Credit Suisse London, said there are two options for European buyers such as Hungary and Slovakia to pay for  gas after Russian state-owned Gazprombank was sanctioned by the US Treasury on November 21. One option would be for the US to include Gazprombank on a general license on energy transactions,  which is regularly updated by the US Treasury and currently includes 12 entities allowed to handle energy-related transactions. Gazprombank, which was sanctioned by the Treasury on November 21, is not on the list but could be included if the US is persuaded of the need to do so. The other option would be for European buyers who continue to offtake Russian gas such as Slovakia’s SPP or Hungary’s MVM CEEnergy Zrt. to pay for the gas to any of the other state banks included on the licence. Nevertheless, he said, Russian officials may refuse to accept this because under a scheme introduced by the Kremlin in 2022, European buyers can only pay for their Russian imports via Gazprombank Luxembourg. Under the arrangement, buyers of Russian gas are required to open accounts in foreign currency and in rubles with Gazprombank. Importers would pay in a foreign currency and Gazprombank would sell it on the Moscow Exchange and credit the buyers’ accounts with rubles. If the US fail to include Gazprombank on the general licence, Russian authorities would be forced to allow European buyers to pay via other banks, which would be "humiliating" for the Russian president Vladimir Putin, Kolyandr said. “Nevertheless, the remaining buyers are all Russian allies, which means Russia could grant some flexibility,” he said. The sanctions include a wind-down period for transactions involving Gazprombank until 20 December 2024 and for those related to the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project in Russia's Far East until 28 June 2025. Nevertheless, if Gazprombank is included on the general licence on energy transactions, transactions – including payments to or from Gazprombank – could continue as usual but only in relation to energy deals, Kolyandr said. A source close to Slovakia’s SPP said the company was monitoring the situation and confirmed that much will depend on "how Gazprom handles the situation." Traders told ICIS on Friday that the news about US treasury sanctions on Gazprombank kept prices volatile on the final session of the week. One trader said, “it should be possible to pay Gazprom via other banks than Gazprombank” but that “the impact is not really clear yet”. Another trader said, “it is making people nervous.” TTF front-month prices tested €49.5/MWh in the early morning but retreated later in the afternoon, dropping below €47.5/MWh. Additional reporting by Amun Lie

22-Nov-2024

TORONTO (ICIS)–Fallout from the policies and tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump will inevitably affect Canada’s economy, in particular the manufacturing sector, according to Oxford Economics. US tariffs and Canada's retaliation Shrinking population Relaxation of mortgage lending rules TRUMP PRESIDENCY The President-elect has proposed increased fiscal stimulus, higher tariffs and curbs on immigration – all impacting Canada. The stimulus, including tax cuts and increased defense spending, will provide the US economy with an initial boost, Tony Stillo, Oxford Economics’ director for Canada, and economist Michael Davenport said in a webinar. Over the first half of Trump’s four-year term, the US stimulus could provide upside to the Canadian economy, “but not a whole lot”, Davenport said. As Trump’s presidency then progresses into its second half, the boost from the stimulus would fade and a drag from his tariffs would set in, slowing down GDP growth, he said. Trump has proposed to raise tariffs by 10-20% on all imports, and by 60% on imports from China. In the case of Canada, Oxford Economics assumes that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on about 10% of US imports from Canada, starting in 2026/2027, targeted at steel, aluminum and other base metals, and that Canada will respond with counter tariffs. US-Canada energy trade is not likely to be subjected to tariffs, they said. The impacts on Canada will be higher inflation. Canada’s central bank will recognize the higher inflation outlook and react by hiking rates in 2026, Davenport said. The Oxford experts think that Trump will likely use the tariff threat as a bargaining chip in the upcoming renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact. However, they would not rule out a more severe “full-blown” Trump presidency, with a 10% import tariff on all Canadian imports, leading to much more significant impacts – in terms of inflation and monetary policies – in Canada. “A full-blown Trump scenario”, and Canada’s retaliation, would be a negative for trade in heavy manufacturing sectors such as autos, base metals, chemicals and chemical products, rubber and plastics products, and autos, among others, Davenport said. While Canada’s manufacturing sector would be most directly exposed to rising import costs from the retaliatory tariffs, the much larger impact on Canada’s economy would come from weaker aggregate demand due to higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, elevated uncertainties and lower consumer confidence, Davenport said. As higher inflation and interest rates squeeze Canadian household budgets there would be big impacts on sectors such as construction and services, he said. Should Trump – contrary to Oxford’s expectations – decide not to go through with his tariffs, then his stimulus measures should be a positive for Canada’s economy, in line with the often-used phrase “What’s good for the US economy is good for Canada’s economy”, he said. However, “we think it’s most likely that Trump does impose substantial tariffs on countries, including Canada, and there is a risk there that tariffs could be more widespread”, he said. In addition to the Trump tariffs and policies, the course of Canada’s economy will also be influenced by a decline in the country’s population and by a recently announced relaxation in mortgage lending rules, the Oxford experts said. POPULATION Following years of soaring population growth, with nearly one million people per year added over the past two years alone, the Canadian government announced it would restrict immigration. Here is a link to a recent video in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau explains the measures. The restrictions will lead to a decline in the country’s population, marking the first decline since the country was founded in its current form in 1867, Stillo said. The contraction in the population will reduce both supply and demand in the economy, meaning that the economy will shrink, he said. Over the mid-term, it will reduce the unemployment rate, lead to wage growth and to moderately higher inflation, he said. As the tighter jobs market and the Trump tariffs raise inflation, Canada’s central bank will react towards the end of 2026 by raising rates, he said. On the positive side, a tighter jobs market and a higher cost of labor should incentivize capital spending, he said. Also, lower population growth would ease Canada’s housing squeeze, he said. Oxford estimates that with a smaller population, Canada will need 3.7 million new homes to restore housing affordability by 2035, down from its previous estimate of 4.2 million homes. Stillo added that a likely change in government in Canada – with the opposition Conservatives ousting Trudeau’s Liberals – could lead to even tougher curbs on immigration. The Conservatives are well ahead of the Liberals in opinion polls on the elections, which will need to be held before November 2025. Contrary to the government’s plans, however, Canada could soon face an unwanted surge in its population due to a wave of undocumented immigrants from the US, where the President-elect has committed to mass deportations, he noted. MORTGAGE RULES Recently announced relaxations to Canadian mortgage rules will affect not only housing but also the broader economy. Effective 15 December, the government will allow 30-year fixed-rate mortgages for first-time home buyers and widen the eligibility for mortgage insurance. The government also removed a “stress test” for existing mortgage borrowers who switch lenders. Combined, the relaxations will boost household cashflows and “unlock” a new pool of home buyers, Davenport said. They will improve housing affordability, driving up housing sales but also raising prices, he said. Overall, Oxford Economics expects the mortgage measures to improve household finances “in a sustained way”, starting as soon as early 2025, and it expects them to "be key in underpinning a pickup in consumer spending and a pickup in housing”, he said. However, while the measures will support economic growth, they will “exacerbate Canada’s long-standing household debt issues” – meaning that households will remain vulnerable to interest rate shocks and losses of jobs or income, he said. Canada’s household debt is currently much higher than the US debt was just before the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the Oxford experts noted. Shortly after the Oxford webinar ended on Thursday, the federal government announced new debt-financed short-term stimulus measures, valued at more than Canadian dollar (C$) 6 billion (US$4.3 billion), which, according to economists, could push up inflation. The stimulus includes a removal of the sales tax from a number of goods (including wine, beer and ciders) for two months, from mid-December to mid-February, and a C$250 tax rebate for 18.7 million “working Canadians”. (US$1=C$1.4) Thumbnail of photo Trudeau (left) meeting Trump in Washington in 2019 during Trump’s first presidency; photo source: Government of Canada

22-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1-3% in 2025, as overall economic growth in its key trading partners is anticipated to ease slightly from 2024 levels, official estimates showed on Friday. 2024 GDP growth forecast raised to "around 3.5%" Global economic uncertainties have increased Singapore's Q3 petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year In particular, the US economy is expected to slow due to easing labor market conditions, although investment growth will provide some support, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement. In contrast, the eurozone will likely see a pickup in growth, driven by stronger consumption and investment recovery amid accommodative monetary policy. In Asia, China's GDP growth will moderate due to weaker exports from announced tariff hikes, but domestic consumption will cushion the slowdown as consumer sentiment improves and the property market stabilizes. Meanwhile, key Southeast Asian economies will experience steady growth, fueled by the upswing in global electronics demand. GLOBAL GROWTH RISKS WIDEN "Global economic uncertainties have increased, including uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside," the MTI said. Intensifying geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions could increase oil prices, production costs, and policy uncertainty, ultimately weakening global investment, trade, and growth, the ministry warned. Moreover, disruptions to the global disinflation process may lead to tighter financial conditions, desynchronized monetary policies, and exposed financial vulnerabilities, it added. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are projected to grow 1.0-3.0% in 2025, following a modest expansion of around 1.0% in 2024, a separate statement by trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore said on Friday. "While the external environment is generally supportive of growth, uncertainties in the global economy such as a more challenging and competitive trade environment could weigh on global trade and growth," it said. 2024 GROWTH UPGRADEDFor 2024, the country's economic growth forecast for 2024 was raised to around 3.5%, above the range of its previous prediction of 2-3%, the MTI said. Singapore's stronger-than-expected economic showing in the first nine months and updated assessments of global and domestic economic conditions drove the upward revision in the GDP forecast. For the first three quarters of the year, GDP growth averaged 3.8% year on year. Singapore's economy grew 5.4% year on year in the third quarter of this year, up from the advanced estimates of 4.1%. In terms of trade, Singapore's petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year in the third quarter, slowing from the 14.9% expansion in the preceding three months. Singapore's NODX grew by 9.2% year on year on year in the third quarter, swinging from the 6.5% contraction in the preceding three months. Singapore serves as a major petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with its Jurong Island hub hosting over 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

22-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could make a decision any day that would allow California to adopt an aggressive electric vehicle program, triggering similar programs in 12 other states and territories that will likely become the target for repeal under President-Elect Donald Trump. During his campaign, Trump has expressed opposition to policies that favor one drive-train technology over another, saying that he would  "cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations". California's EV program is called Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), and it works by requiring EVs, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids to make up an ever-increasing share of the state's auto sales. Other programs that encourage the adoption of EVs could be more vulnerable to repeal and rollbacks under Trump ACC II COULD BOOST EV DEMAND IN 13 STATESBefore California can adopt its ACC II program for EVs, it needs the EPA to grant it a waiver from the US Clean Air Act.  The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said it is expecting a decision from the EPA at any time. If the EPA receives the waiver, then it will trigger the adoption of similar ACC II programs the following states and territories. The figures in parentheses represent each state's share of light-vehicle registrations. California (11.6%) New York (5.6%) Colorado (1.8%) Oregon (1.0%) Delaware (0.3%) Rhode Island (0.3%) Maryland (1.8%) Vermont (0.3%) Massachusetts (2.1%) Washington (1.9%) New Jersey (3.4%) Washington DC (not available) New Mexico (0.5) Source: CARB In total, the 13 states and territories represent at least 30.6% of US light-vehicle registrations, according to CARB. HOW THE ACCII SUPPORTS EV DEMANDThe following chart shows the share of electric-based vehicles that would need to be sold in California by model year under the state's ACC II regulations. Programs in other states and territories have similar targets. ZEV stands for zero-emission vehicle and includes EVs and vehicles with fuel cells Source: California Air Resources Board REPEALING THE ACC IIThe key to California's ACC II programs is the EPA's decision to grant it a waiver to the Clean Air Act. Trump will likely revoke that waiver if it is granted before he takes office, according to the law firm Gibson Dunn. It expects that California will respond by threatening to retroactively enforce the ACC II program once a friendlier president takes office after Trump's term ends in four years. Auto makers could choose to take California's threat seriously and reach an agreement with the state. A similar scenario unfolded during Trump's first term of office in 2016-2020 that involved California's earlier Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) program, according to Gibson Dunn. That program also required a waiver from the EPA, and the dispute was resolved only after Joe Biden restored the waiver after becoming president in 2021. For the possible dispute over the ACC II program, it could take the courts determine whether California can retroactively enforce the program. FEDERAL PROGRAMS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO REPEALThe following federal programs could be more vulnerable to roll backs under Trump. The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation's (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These standards became stricter in 2024. A tax credit worth up to $7,500 for buyers of EVs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trade groups have argued that the CAFE standards and the tailpipe rules are so strict, they function as effective EV programs. They allege that automobile producers can only meet them by making more EVs. The following table shows the current tailpipe rule. Figures are listed in grams of CO2 emitted per mile driven. 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Cars 131 139 125 112 99 86 73 Trucks 184 184 165 146 128 109 90 Total Fleet 168 170 153 136 119 102 85 Source: EPA The following table shows the fuel efficiency standards under the current CAFE program. Figures are in miles/gallon. 2022 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Passenger cars 44.1 60.0 61.2 62.5 63.7 65.1 Light trucks 32.1 42.6 42.6 43.5 44.3 45.2 Light vehicles 35.8 47.3 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.4 Source: DOT Gibson Dunn expect Trump's administration will rescind the tailpipe rule and roll back the CAFE standards to levels for model year 2020 vehicles. That would lower the CAFE standards for light vehicles to 35 miles/gal. EVS AND CHEMICALSEVs represent a small but growing market for the chemical industry, because they consume a lot more plastics and chemicals than automobiles powered by ICEs. A mid-size EV contains 45% more plastics and polymer composites and 52% more synthetic rubber and elastomers, according to a May 2024 report by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). EVs also contain higher value materials such as carbon fiber composites and semiconductors, making the total value of chemistry in the automobiles up to 85% higher than in a comparable ICE, according to the ACC. The following chart compares material consumptions in EVs and ICEs. Source: ACC EVs have material challenges that go beyond making them lighter and more energy efficient, such as managing heat from their batteries and tolerating high voltages. Major chemical and material producer are eager to develop materials that can meet these challenges and command the price premiums offered by EVs. Most have EV portfolios and prominently feature them at trade shows A rollback of US incentives for EVs could slow their adoption and weaken demand for these materials. Materials most vulnerable to these rollbacks would include heat management fluids and chemicals used to make electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, such as dimethyl carbonate (DMC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC). Other materials used in batteries include polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) and ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMW-PE). Insight by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows an EV. Image by Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/Shutterstock

21-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Mexico’s nearshoring trend will continue, even with the prospect of changes with the incoming US Trump administration as the US and Mexico economies are growing more and more interconnected, said the head of Evonik’s Mexico business. “Mexico is the 14th largest global economy, and an economy geared for exports – not only to North America but other regions,” said Martin Toscano, president of Evonik Mexico, at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. Mexico is the 9th largest exporter globally and becoming one step closer to the 3rd largest auto parts manufacturer. It is also the leading business partner to the US, he pointed out. Currently over 80% of Mexico’s exports are to the US, totaling $455 billion in 2023. The US now imports more from Mexico than from China. The US in turn exported $324 billion of goods to Mexico, he noted. Key Mexico exports to the US include transport equipment (including autos and parts), medical and scientific instruments, electronics, machinery, and rubber and plastic. TRUMP IMPACT ON NEARSHORING “Trump 47 (referring to the upcoming 47th US President) is not going to be that different from 45 (last Trump administration). US and Mexico interests go beyond rhetoric,” said Toscano. “No region is an island – they rely on net inflows. The world is too interconnected to just switch off. Economies depend on exports but also imports,” he added, pointing out that the US is unlikely to reshore everything. Nearshoring is natural for Mexico because of its proximity to the US and the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) free trade agreement (FTA). But nearshoring is also distributed across Latin America, with other countries such as Brazil and Argentina ready to play greater roles, he pointed out. US President-Elect Trump has threatened companies – both in the US and abroad – that move production to Mexico to export to the US, with tariffs. However, the US holds over 40% of total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico, making it a major stakeholder in Mexico exports, he noted. “The US has a very important role… but there is also a significant European presence. There is a continuing diversification of the investment base,” said Toscano. Mexico also has FTAs with 23 countries – the 7th most of any country in the world – with access to over 60% of global GDP. This as well as increasing government investment in infrastructure and a growing middle class make it an attractive market for investment, he pointed out. “All this investment in Mexico has generated greater well-being – better jobs and income. This means people start consuming more for basic needs – food, protein, personal care products, cleaning products and household items,” said Toscano. The executive also sees a boost for US economy with the incoming Trump administration. “Simplifying regulations can be good. It can turn to a negotiation point when USMCA sunsets [in 2026]. This can make Mexico adopt certain [simplified] regulatory elements,” said Toscano. “With the Trump administration, Mexico has to take some topics seriously. Nearshoring is a window of opportunity, and if we don’t know how to do it, we will lose,” he added. RULES OF ORIGIN, DEAL-BASED WORLD At the APLA Annua Meeting, former head of Argentina’s central bank and current director of the Asia School of Business, Martin Redrado, said Mexico should be prepared for the US being much stricter on its “rules of origin”. Under the USMCA rules of origin, exporters must show that a product has a certain minimum percentage of components from the region (US, Mexico, Canada) to avoid import duties. Redrado said Latin American countries should now follow a transactional policy as we move from a “rule-based world to deal-based world”. This requires a transactional approach to negotiations. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Focus article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows the flag of Mexico. Image by Shutterstock.

20-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Avantium has signed a multi-year collaboration agreement to pilot the production of polylactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) from carbon dioxide (CO2), with Thai producer SCG Chemicals (SCGC), the Netherlands-based circular polymer materials firm said on Wednesday. PLGA is a biodegradable, recyclable polyester which is an alternative for conventional fossil-based polyesters. "Under this agreement, SCGC will provide support for all stages of technology development," Avantium said in a statement. Financial details of the deal were not disclosed. "Additionally, SCGC will work with Avantium on developing various PLGA applications, aiming to bring these sustainable solutions to market." Avantium and SCGC have spent the past year exploring the properties of PLGA to perfect its formulation for large-scale polymer applications, with a focus on barrier properties, recyclability, and environmental impact. As part of the collaboration, Avantium grants SCGC an option to negotiate license deal to utilize its Volta technology, including PLGA production, within southeast Asia. Avantium’s Volta technology uses electrochemistry to convert CO2 to high-value products and chemical building blocks including glycolic acid. Glycolic acid, combined with lactic acid, can be used to produce PLGA polyester in existing manufacturing assets.

20-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Recently released data from the 2024 Ellen MacArthur Foundation (EMF) Global Commitment report shows brands continue to make progress against their sustainability goals, albeit at a much slower pace than required. The Global Commitment was initiated in 2018, where both private and public entities joined as signatories, agreeing to work towards several packaging sustainability goals including virgin plastic reduction, increased use of post-consumer recycled (PCR) content, elimination of problematic packaging, increased design for circularity among packaging portfolios and increased application of reuse models across packaging and products. Of the 140 signatories who contributed to the most recent report, 91 are packaged goods companies, packaging producers, or retailers, who account for roughly 20% of the world's plastic packaging. While these unified goals have demonstrated a positive model for collaboration and voluntary action, this latest report underscores the necessity of additional global policy to unify all packaging players towards a circular economy. At present, signatories are largely outperforming the remaining 80% of the market when it comes to positive sustainable actions. As with all complex problems, it requires multiple solutions. As stated in the report, "Regulation will not solve everything, given the highly complex nature of plastic and packaging waste. Voluntary business action will continue to play a crucial role in innovating, showing what’s possible, and creating demand for solutions". According to the 2023 packaging volume data, the weighted average of PCR content has increased to 14% from 12% in 2022. This is still far from the weighted average goal of 26% across the signatories by 2025. In total, these efforts amount to over 2.5 million metric tons of PCR having been produced and used in packaging in 2023, up from roughly 2.3 million metric tons in 2023. This is in comparison to the potential demand for over 4 million metric tons of PCR if signatories were to reach their goals based on 2023 total plastic volumes. Looking at the past several years of progress, PCR growth has seen steady 2% increases year on year, though unfortunately this pace is far behind what is needed to reach the ambitious 2025 deadline. At this pace, signatories would collectively reach their goals in 2029, which feels particularly poignant as many individual companies have shifted their timelines from 2025 to 2030 amid growing bottom line pressure and lack of progress. The report confirms as much, transparently stating that many signatories are likely to miss key 2025 targets. That being said, progress is varied among players, with some much closer or already having surpassed initial PCR goals. Per the report, cosmetic sector signatories lead with 31% PCR use on average in 2023, while food sector signatories are only at 10% on average. This could be due to the mixed regulation across the globe regarding food contact approval, as well as the different margin implications between food packaging and other consumer goods items. Even if companies do miss their goals, EMF notes that the Global Commitment has fundamentally transformed data reporting and industry definition practices, a success in itself. According to the report, 45% of signatories now utilize third-party data verification measures which further support data transparency and accountability. When looking at the progress across the other main goals of the Global Commitment, virgin plastic volumes have decreased as companies make targeted efforts to reduce their footprint, though this can also be attributed lower product volumes being produced and sold in the midst of a weak macroeconomic environment as well as carry over destocking from 2023. Unfortunately, only 32% of signatories with a virgin plastic reduction target have either achieved or are on track to meet their target. Bear in mind, these reports publish at a delay and thus actions towards progress in 2024 have largely already taken place, or in some unfortunate cases, have not. This comes as the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) wraps up the fifth and last Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee (INC-5) at the end of the month, with the hopes of having a global treaty on plastic pollution by the end of the year. It remains to be seen how signatories will pursue a final push towards these goals in 2025, amid an uncertain regulatory and economic global environment. Additional reporting by Corbin Olson

19-Nov-2024

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Latin America stands at a crucial turning point as global economic and political dynamics shift, with significant opportunities in energy, food security and technological advancement, an economist said on Tuesday. Martin Redrado, director at the Buenos Aires-based Fundacion Capital, said Latin America is uniquely positioned to benefit from changing global trade patterns, particularly as the world moves from a rules-based system to a more transactional approach. The economist was speaking to delegates at the annual meeting of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). Mexico has emerged as a primary beneficiary of nearshoring initiatives, while South American nations including Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and Chile are increasingly attracting international attention. The region's energy sector is projected to play a vital role in global security, with forecasts indicating Latin America will produce 11 million barrels of oil daily by 2030, representing 25% of global production, said Redrado. Brazil is expected to double its offshore pre-salt oil production, while Argentina's Vaca Muerta development promises significant gas production potential. The economist said regarding food security, Latin America's position appeared equally strong, with the region already controlling half of global corn exports and 60% of soybean exports, with Brazil leading as a major meat exporter. “Latin American will have a central role to play in food security. Today the world has 8 billion inhabitants, and it is estimated that by 2030 around 2.3 billion of those 8 billion will become middle class,” said Redrado. “The middle class consumes more protein, and clearly Latin American, with half of the total corn exports in the world and 60% of soybean exports, is well placed to cater for that demand.” Technological integration, particularly artificial intelligence, is reshaping traditional industries, said Redrado, noting AI applications in agricultural soil analysis, weather forecasting, and pest control are enhancing productivity. Similar advances, he concluded are being made in energy sector efficiency and construction monitoring. INFRASTRUCTURE STILL BEHINDHowever, infrastructure remains a significant challenge, and Redrado said Latin America must improve both physical and digital connectivity, including enhanced petrochemical infrastructure and better regional integration. The push for private sector participation in infrastructure development is growing, with negotiations ongoing for increased US involvement under the Trump administration. Summing up, Redrado said that as global tensions persist in Europe and the Middle East, Latin America's relative stability and strategic distance from these conflicts, combined with existing free trade agreements with the US, position the region favorably for sustainable economic growth and development. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Front page picture source: Shutterstock

19-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–On November 15, OMV Gas Marketing and Trading said Russia's Gazprom Export would cut supplies following a decision by the Austrian company to stop payments.  Despite the announcement, gas continues to flow, sparking questions over what lies behind the supply cut announcement and new arrangement.  In this brief Q&A, ICIS responds to questions based on information cross-checked with multiple sources in Ukraine, Slovakia and Austria. 1. Why did Gazprom Export cut contractual gas supplies to Austria’s OMV? Under Russian legislation, exports of natural gas are subject to a 30% duty, in fact shouldered by European off-takers. Sources familiar with Gazprom’s long-term EU contracts say the producer is prohibited from paying the levy itself. This means that if an importer halts payments, Gazprom Export is obliged to stop supplies. OMV Gas Marketing and Trading announced on 13 November that it would stop payments for Russian gas exports to recover €230m in compensation awarded by an arbitral tribunal. The award is to cover non-delivered gas in 2022. That resulted in Russia stopping delivering gas under the long-term contract with OMV. 2. Russian gas is still flowing to Austria. How come? Although OMV said on November 15 that Gazprom Export would reduce gas deliveries to zero from the following day, flows transiting Ukraine and Slovakia and delivered into Austria have continued as normal. Data published by regional grid operators indicate that gas is also exported on to neighboring Italy and the Czech Republic, although it is unclear whether the volumes are of Russian origin. Data verified by ICIS with multiple Ukrainian, Slovak and Austrian sources show that Gazprom Export continues to transit the gas via Slovakia up to the Austrian border. From there it is reportedly transferred to a western European counterparty which has a transport contract with transmission operator Gas Connect Austria. This explains why there have only been minor changes in nominations on the Ukrainian-Slovak and Slovak-Austrian borders. Considering the minor impact on flows and even price spreads, many market sources interviewed by ICIS have raised questions over whether this transfer had been pre-arranged. Neither OMV nor Gazprom responded to questions from ICIS. 3. How long is this arrangement going to last? Possibly until January 1, 2025 when Ukraine’s current transit agreement with Russia expires. 4. Are there other companies involved in this arrangement? This is unlikely. Slovak-importer SPP also has an import contract for Russian gas. Sources in the country say most of the volumes are transited by Gazprom and offtaken by the buyer on the local virtual trading point, however. 5. Has anything changed in relation to the transit agreement in Ukraine and Slovakia? No. Ukrainian sources confirm there were no changes in the transit and transfer arrangement. Slovak sources close to grid-operator Eustream say Gazprom continues to hold long-term transmission capacity at the Velke Kapusany border point with Ukraine. Gazprom’s booked entry capacity at Velke Kapusany amounts to 141,500,000 cubic meters (at 20°C). Exit capacity at Baumgarten on the Slovak-Austrian border stands at 138,500,000. Gazprom has booked transit capacity via Slovakia until 2028. 6. Following this latest transfer, has anything changed in OMV’s long-term import agreement with Gazprom? Based on public statements, all we know for now is that OMV is no longer off-taking gas under its long-term agreement with Russia. It is possible that following the arbitration award and OMV’s subsequent refusal to pay for supplies, Gazprom would not resume contractual deliveries under the terms of the agreement. This is due to expire in 2040. Events could also lead to the renegotiation of the contract, with OMV likely looking to shorten the duration of the deal and reduce imports. OMV is under pressure by the Austrian government as well as the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and has taken steps to secure Norwegian pipeline gas and LNG.

19-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 November. Europe PET hit by multiple factors pulling market in different directions Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) sources in Europe are faced with a plethora of circumstances trying to shape the market, which in the end may result in a degree of stability. Crude markets face substantial 2025 surplus as China demand falters – IEA Global crude supply growth is likely to outstrip demand by over a million barrels/day in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, with the “marked” slowdown in China consumption the main drag on consumption this year. INSIGHT: European cracker shutdowns could open market to US ethylene exports European ethylene producers could be planning more cracker shutdowns, with the lost capacity being replaced by imports from the US. Shell wins appeal in Dutch emissions caseThe Netherlands court ruling mandating that Shell cut its total carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 has been thrown out, the oil and gas major said on Tuesday. Europe PE, PP adapt value proposition in face of evolving market European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are evolving as the world they occupy steadily changes.

18-Nov-2024