Base oils

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business posted a 14.3% year-on-year drop in earnings in its fiscal first quarter ending June 2024 on poor chemicals margins, the Indian conglomerate said. O2C results in 10 million rupees (Rs) Apr-June 2024 Apr-June 2023 % Change Revenue 157,133 133,031 18.1 EBITDA 13,093 15,286 -14.3 Exports 71,463 69,006 3.6 – Revenue for the period rose primarily on the back of higher product prices in line with Brent crude price gains, and increased volumes due to strong domestic demand, the company said on 19 July. – Fiscal Q1 overall earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin dropped to 8.3% from 11.5% in the same period of last year. – On a year-on-year basis, April-June domestic polymer and polyester demand increased by 8% and 5%, respectively. – RIL's consolidated group profit after tax fell by 4% year on year to Rp175 billion ($2.09 billion) in April-June 2024. Polymers- Fiscal Q1 polymer margins were down by 0.5% to 16.9% year on year due to firm naphtha prices. Product margin over naphtha April-June 2024 ($/tonne) April-June 2023 ($/tonne) % Change Polyethylene (PE) 330 397 -16.9% Polypropylene (PP) 318 381 -16.5% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 371 373 -0.5% Polyester – Paraxylene (PX) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins over naphtha decreased year on year due to higher naphtha prices. – "PTA [purified terephthalic acid] margins were impacted adversely due to high inventory with Chinese producers and increased competition," the company said. – On a year-on-year basis, domestic polyester demand in fiscal Q1 increased by 5%, driven by strong growth in PET, which was up 27% due to "higher demand from the beverage segment on account of summer season and elections". ($1 = Rs83.7)

22-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–IT issues that impacted energy trading systems on Friday morning were gradually being resolved, with market participants regaining access to critical applications. A flawed update of cybersecurity software CrowdStrike hit Windows operating systems, with IT outages affecting companies across many sectors. This included energy trading platform Trayport and several brokers, with trading operations impacted. Trayport said shortly after midday London time it had made “significant progress in implementing workarounds for the ongoing CrowdStrike-related outage”. It said its services were being restored, including risk-based trading, and that the group was working to bring the remaining services back online as quickly as possible. A German power trader told ICIS shortly after midday London time that “all was back to normal” and was able to access broker screens. “It has been very bad this morning. Now everything is working smoothly, but all connections were down for a while,” a gas trader added. A broker had told ICIS earlier in the morning that "hardly anything is working here, we are just waiting for systems to come back." LIQUIDITY Most traders contacted by ICIS reported issues affecting their usual trading activities as well as data used for analyzing market fundamentals. Some European gas and power traders said broker screens were not available and the issue was likely to affect liquidity throughout Friday’s trading session. Another added that they expected the number of transactions to go through at the end of the day to be down by about half. “I can chat and agree on deals, but I cannot put it in my system, meaning the P&L is not updated,” said one EU gas trader in the morning. "There's a lot of counterparties offline, and those that are online are reluctant to show prices this morning," said an LNG trader. Others reported fewer issues and said they could operate as usual. Intraday price movements highlighted that the global IT disruptions impacting energy trading activities on Friday did not have any significant impact on European gas and power prices, as highlighted by regional market commentaries published by ICIS. ENERGY EXCHANGES Commenting on the status of ICE’s derivatives markets, an ICE spokesperson told ICIS: “We are aware of the issue and markets are fully operational. We are in close dialogue with our customers on whether and how they’re impacted”. Earlier in the session, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) reported in a message to trading participants that customers using Trayport services were potentially facing technical problems. “Customers may observe problems to login or to trade via Trayport due to infrastructure issues with a third-party service provider,” EEX said. EEX also offered its assistance to customers for removing orders or trading on behalf. European power exchange EPEX SPOT, which is part of EEX, told ICIS that issues with the Spanish OMIE short-term trading platform, which caused a partial decoupling of markets on Friday morning, were not related to the global IT issues. It confirmed that all other European day-ahead power auctions were running to plan and order book closures were happening on time. Trading across the Nord Pool exchange was not impacted, a spokesman confirmed, and added that it was monitoring the situation closely. Spanish gas exchange MIBGAS also told ICIS it has not been affected by the outage. The electronic capacity trading platform RBP, owned by the Hungarian gas transmission system operator FGSZ Natural Gas Transmission, said it had not been impacted. IMPACT ON ENERGY COMPANIES Several energy companies contacted by ICIS did not report issues related to the global IT incident and were monitoring the situation. Spanish gas system operator Enagas told ICIS it “is not vulnerable because it does not have the impacted software installed, but an analysis is being carried out to foresee any eventual impact”. "As far as we're aware, everything has been fine here relating to the outages and we are not aware of any issues in the LNG shipping market making an impact," a UK-based shipbroker told ICIS. Other LNG shipping sources have also so far said they have noted no impact on terminals or shipping operations. Belgian gas system operator and LNG terminals operator Fluxys told ICIS “there have been some very minor issues without any real effect on flows”. The issues related to the “impact on the systems of our [external] partners.”, Fluxys' subsidiaries include Dunkerque LNG and Zeebrugge LNG. ICIS contacted other major European LNG operators and global energy companies but received no replies by the time of publishing.

19-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–IT issues that impacted energy trading systems on Friday morning were gradually being resolved, with market participants regaining access to critical applications. A flawed update of cybersecurity software CrowdStrike hit Windows operating systems, with IT outages affecting companies across many sectors. This included energy trading platform Trayport and several brokers, with trading operations impacted. Trayport said shortly after midday London time it had made “significant progress in implementing workarounds for the ongoing CrowdStrike-related outage”. It said its services were being restored, including risk-based trading, and that the group was working to bring the remaining services back online as quickly as possible. A German power trader told ICIS shortly after midday London time that “all was back to normal” and was able to access broker screens. “It has been very bad this morning. Now everything is working smoothly, but all connections were down for a while,” a gas trader added. A broker had told ICIS earlier in the morning that "hardly anything is working here, we are just waiting for systems to come back." LIQUIDITY Most traders contacted by ICIS reported issues affecting their usual trading activities as well as data used for analyzing market fundamentals. Some European gas and power traders said broker screens were not available and the issue was likely to affect liquidity throughout Friday’s trading session. Another added that they expected the number of transactions to go through at the end of the day to be down by about half. “I can chat and agree on deals, but I cannot put it in my system, meaning the P&L is not updated,” said one EU gas trader in the morning. "There's a lot of counterparties offline, and those that are online are reluctant to show prices this morning," said an LNG trader. Others reported fewer issues and said they could operate as usual. ENERGY EXCHANGES Commenting on the status of ICE’s derivatives markets, an ICE spokesperson told ICIS: “We are aware of the issue and markets are fully operational. We are in close dialogue with our customers on whether and how they’re impacted”. Earlier in the session, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) reported in a message to trading participants that customers using Trayport services were potentially facing technical problems. “Customers may observe problems to login or to trade via Trayport due to infrastructure issues with a third-party service provider,” EEX said. EEX also offered its assistance to customers for removing orders or trading on behalf. European power exchange EPEX SPOT, which is part of EEX, told ICIS that issues with the Spanish OMIE short-term trading platform, which caused a partial decoupling of markets on Friday morning, were not related to the global IT issues. It confirmed that all other European day-ahead power auctions were running to plan and order book closures were happening on time. Trading across the Nord Pool exchange was not impacted, a spokesman confirmed, and added that it was monitoring the situation closely. Spanish gas exchange MIBGAS also told ICIS it has not been affected by the outage. The electronic capacity trading platform RBP, owned by the Hungarian gas transmission system operator FGSZ Natural Gas Transmission, said it had not been impacted. IMPACT ON ENERGY COMPANIES Several energy companies contacted by ICIS did not report issues related to the global IT incident and were monitoring the situation. Spanish gas system operator Enagas told ICIS it “is not vulnerable because it does not have the impacted software installed, but an analysis is being carried out to foresee any eventual impact”. "As far as we're aware, everything has been fine here relating to the outages and we are not aware of any issues in the LNG shipping market making an impact," a UK-based shipbroker told ICIS. Other LNG shipping sources have also so far said they have noted no impact on terminals or shipping operations. Belgian gas system operator and LNG terminals operator Fluxys told ICIS “there have been some very minor issues without any real effect on flows”. The issues related to the “impact on the systems of our [external] partners.”, Fluxys' subsidiaries include Dunkerque LNG and Zeebrugge LNG. ICIS contacted other major European LNG operators and global energy companies but received no replies by the time of publishing.

19-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. The slide in today’s post is an updated version of the slide I first published late last year. Note that there is a new scenario added to the original two, A Bi-polar World. I could be wrong, of course. I might have given the wrong weightings to each of the scenarios, or more simply have chosen the wrong scenarios entirely. But today’s events point to very different outcomes than we saw during the 1992-2021 Petrochemicals Supercycle. Supermajors – 25% probabilityA small number of oil-and-gas-to-petrochemicals players dominate the business as they have increasingly turned oil and natural-gas liquids into petrochemicals at competitive costs. This is in response to the decline in crude-oil demand into transportation fuels because of the electrification of vehicles. Non-integrated petrochemical producers in Europe, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Southeast Asia consolidate. Large swathes of capacity closes-down in these countries and regions to balance markets. A Bi-Polar World – 50% probabilityThe split between China and the US, and possibly the EU as well, widens. The rest of the developed world, including major petrochemical players in countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Japan, will need to decide where they stand: With the US and its partners or with China and its partners. They are at risk of losing access to the China market. Petrochemicals trade is largely confined to between China and its partners and between the US and its partners. No one scenario will be completely right. We could end up at any of many points between each of these three extreme outcomes. This is the case with Supermajors and A Bi-polar World. It could be that the closer relationship between Saudi Arabia and China allows Saudi Arabia to supply more of China’s petrochemicals deficits, allowing the Kingdom to perhaps realise some of its crude-oil-to-chemicals ambitions. A De-globalised World – 25% probabilityMarkets are in general much more regional. Instead of just a bi-polar world, we end up with beggar-thy-neighbour trade barriers similar in scale to the ones which led to the Great Depression. Petrochemical companies become much more “local for local”. Governments put up barriers to protect jobs and to ensure refineries don’t shut down along with uncompetitive petrochemical plants, thereby by protecting local supplies of transportation fuels. While extreme outcomes help push people out their comfort zones, supporting local petrochemical companies might instead fit at some mid-way point between all the scenarios. And “local for local” shouldn’t be viewed as automatically a bad thing. One can argue that because of today’s highly uncertain geopolitical world, local supplies of at least some petrochemicals are essential. Calling all senior management teams out there: You need to prepare your teams for the world after the Petrochemicals Supercycle. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

19-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–On 11 July the first auction results from the German H2Global programme were released, providing the European hydrogen market critical information on the green premium across the supply side as ammonia participants switch to lower-carbon, cleaner products. H2Global is a double auction system that procures international volumes of hydrogen and re-sells them domestically, providing a subsidy based on how low the sell price of the market is against how high the buy price is. ICIS has produced the following infographic to contextualise the update.

18-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday secured her re-election to a second five-year term as President of the European Commission, and identified competitiveness as the most pressing issue facing the EU. Following a June European parliamentary election season that saw liberal and centrist political blocs hold on to majority power but cede ground to right-wing and Eurosceptic parties, von der Leyen’s position as leader of the bloc was reaffirmed on 18 July. A total of 401 Ministers of European Parliament (MEPs) backed von der Leyen’s candidacy, equating to roughly the number of members linked to the centrist European People’s Party, left-wing Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, and  liberal group Renew Europe. A total of 360 votes in favour of von der Leyen were necessary to secure a majority. Of the 719 total MEPs, 284 voted against her, and 22 submitted blank or invalid votes, according to European Parliament. Chemicals sector representatives have expressed hopes that the next term of the European Parliament will feature a stronger focus on industrial competitiveness, in light of the impact of high energy prices on the long-term viability of some sectors. ““If you read the State of the Union, there are a number of statements which clearly indicate industry policy is back, that it will get, if not the deepest political priority, as there are issues like Ukraine, it will get political priority in the next commission,” Cefic director general Marco Mensink said, speaking in October 2023. The impact of higher energy prices on operating costs and the rollout of more cash-heavy subsidy frameworks elsewhere, such as the US Inflation Reduction Act, have intensified pressure on European industry. “Our competitiveness needs a major boost,” von der Leyen said, addressing MEPs earlier on Thursday. “The fundamentals of the global economy are changing. Those who stand still will fall behind. Those who are not competitive will be dependent. The race is on and I want Europe to switch gear,” she added. This push on competitiveness is likely to be focused on reducing the administrative burden on companies in the region and prioritising faster permitting, she added. Von der Leyen also intends to launch a Clean Industrial Deal within the first 100 days of her new term, she added, to channel investment in infrastructure and industry decarbonisation, particularly for energy-intensive sectors. Germany-based chemicals trade group VCI welcomed von der Leyen's re-election, but warned that Europe is at a crossroads in terms of its future trajectory. "We are at a turning point that will decide the future of Europe. Will we manoeuvre ourselves further into the side lines as a business location or back on the road to success? The new Commission must act decisively to balance sustainability and industrial competitiveness," said VCI CEO Wolfgang Grosse Entrup. No deviation is expected in the bloc’s 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation goals, despite growing murmurs that the EU is not on track to meet the 2030 targets with just over six years still remaining to build out infrastructure. “So I want to be clear. We will stay the course on our new growth strategy and the goals we set for 2030 and 2050. Our focus now will be on implementation and investment to make it happen on the ground,” von der Leyen added. Focus article by Tom Brown. Thumbnail photo: Ursula von der Leyen, speaking in Strasbourg, France, after winning re-election as European Commission President on 18 July 2024. (Source: Ronald Wittek/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

18-Jul-2024

MADRID (ICIS)–Supply of ethane from Pemex to polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa is now more stable after a renegotiation of the contract – but the global PE market remains in the doldrums, according to an executive at the Mexican firm. Sergio Plata, head of institutional relations and communications at Braskem Idesa, said a recovery in global PE prices could start in the second half of 2025 as the market is expected to remain oversupplied in the coming quarters. Plata explained how Braskem Idesa had to renegotiate the terms of an agreement with Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned crude oil major, for the supply of natural gas-based ethane, one of the routes to produce PE, to its facilities in Coatzacoalcos. Supply is now more stable and in the quantities agreed, he said. Braskem Idesa operates the Ethylene XXI complex in Coatzacoalcos, south of the industrial state of Veracruz, which has capacity to produce 1.05 million tonnes/year of ethylene and downstream capacities of 750,000 tonnes/year for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 300,000 tonnes/year for low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Braskem Idesa is a joint venture made up of Brazil’s polymers major Braskem (75%) and Mexican chemical producer Grupo Idesa (25%). ETHANE FLOWING, TERMINAL IN Q1 2025 Pemex agreed with Braskem Idesa to supply the PE producer with a minimum volume of 30,000 barrels/day of ethane until the beginning of 2025, when Braskem Idesa plans to start up an import terminal in Coatzacoalcos to allow it to tap into exports out of the US Gulf Coast. However, both parties sat to renegotiate that agreement after Pemex’s supply proved to be unstable, with credit rating agencies such as Fitch warning in 2023 of the “operational risk” such a deal with the state-owned major represented for Braskem Idesa. The outcome of the renegotiation is starting to bear fruit, explained Plata diplomatically, without providing any details. He conceded, however, that to outsiders, Pemex’s businesses could look rather odd. “We understand the positions of a public entity such as Pemex, and we understand its methods could look questionable to eyes outside our relationship,” said Plata. “However, at Braskem Idesa we were confident that if we sat down with them to renegotiate, clearly stating what we require from each other, we could reach a point in the renegotiation which worked for us as a company and for the Mexican petrochemicals sector as a whole.” Together with more stable supply from Pemex, Braskem Idesa also adopted the so-called Fast Track to import ethane while its own import terminal starts up. The terminal, known as Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM), closed the last financing details at the end of 2023. Plata said the terminal would start up “without a doubt” by the beginning of 2025, adding that construction was 70% complete by the beginning of July. According to Plata, with Pemex’s more stable ethane supply and the Fast Track system, Braskem Idesa is operating at 70-75% capacity utilization. PE MARKET WOES As a PE producer, Braskem Idesa remains exposed to the global downturn in polymers prices due to oversupplies. Plata said the downturn has been a “very hard” period for polymers producers, who may still face 12 more months of downturn. In its latest financial statement for the first quarter, Braskem Idesa’s sales fell by 2%, year on year, and the company posted a net loss. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose. Braskem Idesa (in $ million) Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Change Q4 2023 Change Q1 2024 vs Q4 2024 Sales 229 234 -2% 199 15% Net profit/loss -85 1 N/A -101 -16% EBITDA 36 26 36% 26 39% PE sales volumes (in tonnes) 205,500 195,100 5.4% 174,500 17.8% “We have had a very complex environment, with increased capacities in the US or China and with the war in Ukraine raising our production costs. We are undoubtedly in a down cycle and as a company we have tried to take care of our margins by controlling our costs and look closely at our investments,” said Plata. He said he “would not have the answer” about what to do with China’s dumping of product around the world, a fact that in Brazil, the largest Latin American economy, has prompted chemicals trade group Abiquim to lobby hard for higher import tariffs in polymers, as well as dozens of other chemicals. “Market analysts predict the current cycle may come to an end in the second half of 2025. Let’s hope so… This has been such a long crisis, aggravated by external factors such as wars and global convulsions, which undoubtedly also affect the industry, and the environment remains very uncertain.” Front page picture: Braskem Idesa’s facilities in Coatzacoalcos Source: Braskem Idesa Interview article by Jonathan Lopez Next week, ICIS will publish the second part of the interview with Plata, with his views on the challenges and opportunities for the chemicals and manufacturing sectors under the upcoming Administration led by President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum amid the nearshoring trend

18-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–SK Innovation, the parent company of battery maker SK On and petrochemicals producer SK Geo Centric, has agreed to merge with its energy affiliate SK E&S in an overhaul to improve its profitability. The two companies are merging in a proactive effort to navigate the challenging external business landscape, characterized by a prolonged global economic downturn, increased volatility in the energy and chemical industries, and a slowdown in the electric vehicle (EV) market, SK Innovation said in a statement on 17 July. "By integrating assets and capabilities across both energy and electrification sectors, the merged company will bolster its core competitiveness and profitability," it said. Additionally, the merger aims to secure competitiveness in future energy business areas. Upon merging, the combined entity will transform into an energy firm with assets totaling Korean won (W) 100 trillion ($72.4 billion) and revenues of W88 trillion, "positioning itself as the largest private energy company in the Asia-Pacific region", SK Innovation said. The merged firm will also increase earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to W5.8 trillion, up from pre-merger levels of W1.9 trillion, it said. The two companies expect that by 2030, the synergies from the integration alone will add over W2.1 trillion to EBITDA, which is targeted to hit W20 trillion by the end of the decade. "Notably, the merged company will be able to mitigate the high profit volatility of the petrochemical business, which has served as a reliable cash cow, with the stable profit generation capabilities of the LNG [liquefied natural gas], power, and city gas businesses," SK Innovation said. The management boards of both SK Innovation and SK E&S approved the proposed merger on 17 July, subject to shareholders’ approval on 27 August. The merged corporation is expected to be officially launched on 1 November. "The merged company will develop a comprehensive portfolio that spans all areas, including energy sources (such as oil, chemicals, LNG, city gas, power, renewable energy, batteries, ESS [energy storage system] hydrogen, SMR, ammonia, and immersion cooling), energy carriers, and energy solutions," SK Innovation said. "Currently, global oil majors are also currently pursuing balanced portfolios across the energy sector through various mergers and acquisitions." SK Innovations' business portfolio includes petrochemicals, lubricants, and oil exploration. It is now diversifying into future energy sectors such as electric vehicle batteries, small modular reactors (SMR), ammonia, and immersion cooling. SK E&S was spun off from SK Innovation in 1999 as a city gas holding company and is transitioning into a green portfolio that organically integrates its four core businesses – city gas, low-carbon LNG value chain, renewable energy, and hydrogen and energy solutions, to create synergies. Separately, SK On's board has approved a merger with sister companies – crude oil and petroleum products trading firm SK Trading International and energy logistics firm SK Enterm to improve raw material purchasing efficiency and expand trading, helping improve SK On's profit structure. "Through the merger of these three companies, SK On will be able to further strengthen its competitiveness in securing raw materials ($1 = W1,380)

18-Jul-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Liquid chemical tanker rates from the US Gulf to Asia are plunging this week as plant shutdowns and delays in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl have led to “gaping large holes of space”, shipping brokers said on Wednesday. Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas on 8 July between Corpus Christi and Houston, which is a key region for US petrochemical production. Some plants took precautionary measures and shut down ahead of the storm, while others sustained damage or lost power or other utilities to their sites, leading to shutdowns and force majeures. A shipping broker said the outages and delays left shipowners without contract cargoes that are typically the base volumes for vessels. “As a result, there are gaping large holes of space available for prompt loading,” a broker said. The broker expects the trend to continue for the next week or two. A different broker said it is seeing part cargo space for the rest of this month and into August across MOL and Odfjell vessels. Rates have also softened this week along the USG-Brazil trade lane as some partial space has opened. Beryl has led to a “wait and see” sentiment for players on this trade lane, a broker said. PANAMA CANAL A broker said that Stolt has joined MOL and Odfjell in resuming transits through the Panama Canal. Restrictions have gradually eased at the canal after the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) began limiting transits in July of last year because of low water levels at the freshwater lake that feeds the locks because of an ongoing drought. Water levels have improved because of the onset of the rainy season and conservation efforts enacted by the PCA to better use the freshwater available to them. The PCA will limit transits on 3-4 August for planned maintenance at the Miraflores locks. Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page. Visit the ICIS Hurricane Beryl topic page. Thumbnail image shows a container ship moving through the Panama Canal. Photo courtesy of the PCA.

17-Jul-2024

UK government does not rule out increasing budget for offshore wind in next auction Capacity would need to average 16.60GW in the next two auctions to procure the capacity needed to reach revised 2030 target But only 10.6GW of offshore projects have the required development consent to enter the auction LONDON (ICIS)–The UK government has left the door open to a possible budget increase for offshore wind at an upcoming renewable capacity auction under the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme, after it said it intends to quadruple installed capacity for the technology by 2030. But ICIS calculations show that, depending on the strike price, the budget would have to increase between 2.3-5.4 times in order to allow for a capacity award consistent with meeting the revised target. And even if it did, planning hurdles are set to prevent this, with the pressure shifting on subsequent auction rounds. The budget for offshore wind in the upcoming round is currently £800m and the maximum strike price has been set at £73/MWh. A spokesperson for the department for energy security and net zero told ICIS that applications for the sixth allocation round are currently being assessed. “The Secretary of State will then carefully consider whether to increase the budget,” they said. The government did not confirm an exact figure for the revised offshore wind target. To present an idea of how much quadrupling offshore wind capacity by 2030 would translate into, ICIS quadrupled its forecast for installed capacity by the end of 2024, resulting in 61.08GW by 2030. Actual intended capacity may vary. A trader said: “I suspect they will increase the budget; we have had people backing out of projects and these will be the people saying they need better returns so the budget will need to be higher for the amount of capacity the government wants.” CFD BUDGET ICIS Analytics calculated that, in the next two CfD rounds, capacity will need to average 16.60GW per auction to obtain the amount needed to reach the 2030 target. This is to allow construction time which is usually between six to eight years. ICIS calculated that, if the auction cleared at a strike price of £60/MWh, a budget of £800m will be able to finance 4.2GW of capacity. If the auction cleared at the maximum strike price of £73/MWh, the budget would only be able to fund 3GW. If the budget was increased to £1bn, 5.3GW of capacity could be obtained with a clearing price of £60/MWh. Similarly, if the auction cleared at the maximum strike price of £73/MWh, 3.9GW could be obtained. SHORTFALL While an increase in budget to £1bn would procure more offshore wind capacity, a larger budget is required to obtain the capacity needed to meet the 2030 target. ICIS Analytics calculated a budget of nearly £1.8bn is needed to obtain 16.60GW of capacity in the sixth auction if it cleared at the lowest price of £44.1/MWh. This was modelled as the lowest figure as it is just above the maximum clearing price of the fifth auction round, which was £44/MWh and was too low to attract bids , If the auction cleared at £60/MWh, which is a base case scenario, the budget would need to be nearly £3.2bn. Furthermore, if the auction cleared at the maximum strike price, a £4.3bn budget is required. However, according to ICIS analyst Robbie Jackson-Stroud, there are too few entrants to obtain 16.60GW for the auction, as only 10.6GW of offshore projects have the required development consent to proceed to auction. This therefore puts increasing pressure on the seventh auction round, due to be held in 2025, to obtain offshore wind capacity needed to meet the 2030 target. As things currently stand, ICIS analytics forecasts only 39GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 under a base case scenario, therefore falling short of the ambitious target. .

17-Jul-2024