Caprolactam and nylon

LONDON (ICIS)–Europe adipic acid and downstream nylon 6,6 markets face bleak prospects for demand in December, followed by a broadly flat outlook in 2025, with overall weak consumption from key derivative markets. Over the past few months, very slow demand and ample supply have continued to dominate European markets alongside rising costs of production. In this latest podcast, ICIS editors Meeta Ramnani and Marta Fern share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Seasonal destocking to weaken buying interest further in December Demand could stay low in 2025; recovery depends on macroeconomic factors Q1 2025 could bring restocking; its magnitude unclear Asian adipic acid import volumes likely to increase in Q1

21-Nov-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil's central bank monetary policy committee (Copom) voted unanimously late on Wednesday to hike the main interest rate benchmark, the Selic, by 50 basis points to 11.25%, to fend off rising inflation and a depreciating Brazilian real. Central bank urges government to put fiscal house in order H1 October inflation data reveals that upward trend continues Despite high borrowing costs, car sales at decade-high in October The 50 basis point increase is a double-down on the first 25 basis point increase in September which put an end to the monetary policy easing which started in August 2023 after a post-inflation crisis. Copom did not mention the market fallout which followed US Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, as global investors are wary about radical changes in US trade policy via higher import tariffs, among others. Instead, Copom focused on the healthy domestic economy and strong labor market which has put upward pressure on prices. After a small fall in August, the annual rate of inflation ticked higher in September – an upward trend that started May – to stand at 4.4%. Indicators for H1 October showed inflation ticking up further to 4.5%. The Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) own inflation expectations reflect this trend, with inflation expected to end this year at 4.6% before falling to 4.0% in 2025. The BCB’s mandate is to keep inflation at around 3%. “The scenario remains marked by resilient economic activity, labor market pressures, positive output gap, an increase in the inflation projections, and deanchored expectations, which requires a more contractionary monetary policy,” said Copom. “[Copom] judges that this decision [increase in the Selic] is consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target throughout the relevant horizon for monetary policy. Without compromising its fundamental objective of ensuring price stability, this decision also implies smoothing economic fluctuations and fostering full employment.” Petrochemical-intensive industrial companies have repeatedly said high interest rates have harmed sales as consumers think twice before purchasing durable goods on credit due to high borrowing costs. One vocal opponent to high rates is automotive trade group Anfavea, although its own figures this week showed sales riding at a high not seen since 2014, regardless of high borrowing costs. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which make up more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle, driving demand for chemicals such polypropylene (PP), nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), among others. Meanwhile, Brazilian president Lula's cabinet is looking to strengthen the country's industrial sectors to fulfil his Workers Party (PT) electoral promise to create more and better paid industrial jobs. As a result, Lula and several of his  officials have repeatedly and publicly criticized the BCB for its interest rates policy. Meanwhile, central bank governor Roberto Campos Neto, appointed by the previous center-right Jair Bolsonaro administration, will end his term in December, when Lula appointed Gabriel Galipolo will succeed him. It is a move that has put some investors on alert due to his closeness to Lula, as he may prioritize the cabinet's demands instead of the bank's inflation target, its main mandate. But as global markets increasingly look at Brazil, Galipolo has fallen in line and also voted to increase rates in the last two Copom meetings. CABINET URGED TO END DEFICITThe Brazilian cabinet, presided over by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was expected to run a fiscal deficit this year in an attempt to expand public services without increasing taxes. Investors and analysts have been piling pressure on the government by punishing the Brazilian real (R), which has depreciated sharply in the past few months against the US dollar, making dollar-denominated imports into Brazil more expensive and ultimately filtering down in the form of higher inflation. At the start of 2024, the real was trading at $1:4.85. But the exchange rate stood at $1:5.69 on Wednesday, a depreciation of nearly 15%. On Wednesday, Copom joined the chorus of voices asking for stricter fiscal policy, arguing that to stop the real losing ground it is necessary a “credible fiscal policy committed to debt sustainability, with the presentation and execution of structural measures” in the public accounts. The Brazilian cabinet is reportedly working against the clock this week on those measures, and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad even cancelled an official trip to Europe this week to focus on this. “The perception of agents [in the market] about the fiscal scenario has significantly impacted asset prices and expectations, especially the risk premium and the exchange rate. [A credible fiscal policy] will contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations and to the reduction in the risk premia of financial assets, therefore impacting monetary policy.” Analysts at Capital Economics on Wednesday also highlighted the diplomatic but very clear request from the central bank to the government – without stricter fiscal policies aiming to reduce the deficit, investors will continue making the central bank’s work on inflation harder as they bet against Brazilian assets, including its currency. “[The hike] has more to do with the domestic macro backdrop and shoring up monetary policy credibility than a response to the market fallout following Trump’s victory … [Copom’s] Concerns will have only been amplified by recent data and developments, with the accompanying statement reiterating that ‘economic activity and labor market continues to exhibit strength’,” the analysts said. “Alongside all of this, Copom members are probably also feeling compelled to tighten policy in order to shore up their credibility amid investor concerns about politicization of monetary policy. This strikes at an important point – the central bank is responding to Brazil-specific factors rather than the financial market fallout from Trump’s victory, especially given that the real is up by around 1% against the dollar today [6 November].” Capital Economics said Copom’s intention to raise rates further if necessary is likely to become a reality in coming months, expecting the Selic to rise further by 75bps more to reach 12% in early 2025. “That said, the risks are skewed to the upside, particularly if the government fails to soothe investors’ concerns about the fiscal position.” they concluded. Focus article by Jonathan Lopez 

07-Nov-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive sector posted in October its best sales since 2014 at nearly 265,000 units, the country’s trade group Anfavea said on Wednesday. Healthy sales at home propped up output, which stood at nearly 250,000 units during October and was also propped by overseas sales, with exports rising during the month, compared with September. Year-to-date in October, however, exports still register a negative reading of more than 7%, when compared with the same 10-month period of 2023, as key trading partners such as Argentina remain in financial trouble, reducing consumers’ purchases of Brazilian-manufactured vehicles. “Although this was the second-best month of the year in terms of production, we are still below the registrations, due to the high volume of imports,” said Anfavea’s president, Marcio de Lima, focusing on an issue – imports from China, specifically – which the trade group have been raising alarms for much of this year. In July, Anfavea said several producers with facilities in Brazil – most of them the traditional, established players – are pointing to an “uncontrolled” influx of cars manufactured overseas which are hitting domestic producers’ market share. China-produced vehicles, most of them electric or hybrid, are quickly gaining market share in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America. Anfavea called on the government to establish tariffs as other jurisdictions – the US or the EU – have done on China-manufactured vehicles. “Another good news in October was the increase of 7,000 direct jobs in the last 12 months, with the potential to generate another 70,000 jobs in the automotive chain. This is the indicator that makes us happiest, as we have great responsibility for the approximately 1.2 million workers in the automotive sector,” said De Lima. Brazil automotive October September Change January-October 2024 January-October 2023 Change Production 249,200 230,000 8.3% 2,123,400 1,950,600 8.9% Sales 264,900 236,300 12.1% 2,124,000 1,847,500 15% Exports 43,500 41,600 4.6% 327,800 354,200 -7.4% The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which make up more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA).

06-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Celanese plans to cut its quarterly dividend by 95% in Q1 2025 and idle plants in every region after third-quarter adjusted earnings fell well below guidance, the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Monday. Q3 adjusted earnings/share were $2.44 versus an earlier guidance of $2.75-3.00. Celanese shares were down by more than 13% in afterhours trading. Celanese is taking the following steps to cut down debt: It will temporarily idle plants in every region to reduce manufacturing costs through the end of 2024 It expects to generate an expected $200 million inventory release in the fourth quarter. The idling includes 10 sites in the company's Engineered Materials segment. In the first half of the fourth quarter, Celanese has temporarily idled the company's Singapore production of acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), esters and vinyl acetate emulsions (VAE). In Frankfurt, Germany, the company is idling its VAM plant and plans to use it as swing capacity to meet demand. It will start a program to reduce costs by more than $75 million by the end of 2025. The cost cutting will target selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. It will target $400 million in 2025 capital expenditures, a figure below 2024 levels. It will close on a 364-day delayed draw prepayable term loan for up to $1 billion. It will draw on the term loan in Q1 2025 towards $1.3 billion in maturing debt. TOUGH THIRD QUARTERThe plant shutdowns, dividend reduction and cost cutting follow a third quarter that saw demand degrade rapidly and acutely in automobiles and industrial end markets. "Auto in Europe and North America experienced a shock to the demand patterns that had been relatively steady for the previous several quarters, with swift sales declines in both regions that led to a pullback in auto builds," said Scott Richardson, chief operating officer. Demand remained slow in Asia but did not show the same trajectory as the Americas. The company noted that prices in China for undifferentiated nylon polymer reflects supply that is growing faster than demand. Demand remained weak in paints, coatings and construction. New capacity for VAM came online and outpaced demand, amplifying the weakness in construction as well as in solar panels. Excess inventories in solar panels is weakening demand for ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The weakness more than offset the gains that Celanese made from its synergy projects in its Mobility and Materials (M&M) acquisition and from its acetic acid expansion project in Clear Lake, Texas. WORSE FOURTH QUARTERQ4 destocking in the automotive and industrial end markets should be heavier than normal, and Celanese expects demand to worsen in the fourth quarter. The destocking should be temporary and contained in the quarter. In Engineered Materials, Celanese expects a $40 million hit from the destocking. Another $15 million hit will come from seasonal declines associated with product mix. A further $15 million will come from temporarily idling capacity in the segment. For acetyls, Celanese is not seeing any indications of demand growth in anticipation of the first quarter or as a result of stimulus from China. For the company, Q4 adjusted earnings/share should be $1.25. Q3 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEThe following table shows the company's Q3 financial performance. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q3 24 Q3 23 % Change Sales 2,648 2,723 -2.8% Cost of sales 2,026 2,050 -1.2% Gross profit 622 673 -7.6% Net income 116 951 -87.8% Source: Celanese Earnings in Q3 2023 reflect a $503 million one-time gain from the sale of assets. Thumbnail shows adhesive, which is made with VAM. Image by Shutterstock.

04-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Higher interest rates and weaker demand have led to shutdowns, layoffs and a couple of distressed debt exchanges that were considered defaults by ratings agencies. Nylon producer Ascend Performance Materials is closing a plant and laying off workers at another site. Cornerstone and SI Group held distressed debt exchanges. Mid-2025 recovery could be delayed if US mortgage rates remain elevated due to growing government debt. ASCEND SUMS UP CHALLENGES FOR CHEMSAscend's nylon 6,6 business is contending with a troubling mix of rising supplies in polyamides and weak demand from its key end markets of consumer goods, automobiles and housing. ICIS keeps track of global capacity for nylon 6 and nylon 6,6. By 2027, capacity should be nearly 70% larger than levels in 2022. Nearly all of the new capacity is being built in northeast Asia, which includes China. Another company, US-based paints and coatings producer PPG, is planning possible shutdowns and layoffs, but these will be primarily in Europe and certain other global businesses. DISTRESSED DEBT EXCHANGES FROM SI GROUP, CORNERSTONESI Group is expected to complete what a ratings agency considers to be another distressed debt exchange, which would lead to the company's second restricted default this year. SI declined to comment when the ratings note was issued in September. SI Group is facing the same difficult business conditions as Ascend, according to Fitch Ratings. Sales fell amid new capacity in China. SI Group makes specialty chemicals used in coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers (CASE) as well as in lubricants, fuels, surfactants and polymers. Cornerstone, the sole melamine producer in the US, is trying to sell some of its assets to avoid a second default. The company also makes acrylonitrile (ACN). Demand fell for both products fell, leading to large operating losses in 2023. COMPANIES HOLD OUT FOR SECOND HALF RECOVERYThe chemical industry is hopeful that falling inflation and interest rates will lead to a recovery in demand in 2025. "It is only a question of when, not if," said Heidi Petz, CEO of Sherwin-Williams, a US-based paints and coatings producer. Polyurethane producers expect a recovery could start in mid-2025, coinciding with the start of the US construction season and the cumulative effects of what it expects to be subsequent declines in interest rates. Lower mortgage rates would make housing more affordable, which would increase sales of new and existing homes. That would increase demand for furniture and appliances as well as for chemicals used to make paints, coatings, sealants and insulation. Lower interest rates would also make automobiles more affordable. The industry is suffering from a temporary lull, with PPG noting that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) started taking unscheduled and prolonged downtime in Q3. The decline in interest rates will depend, in part, on US inflation remaining on track to reach the central bank's target of 2%. The danger is that inflation remains stubborn or, if it does fall, the lower benchmark interest rate does not fully translate into declines in longer term rates like US home loans. US home loans typically rise and fall with yields on 10-year Treasury notes, and an economist has warned that yields could remain elevated because of the growing US debt. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned about the consequences of growing government debt. If the link between longer term rates and government debt holds true, then that could limit or delay the recovery in demand expected by many chemical companies that sell materials used in durable goods. Insight by Al Greenwood

24-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 18 October. IPEX: Global spot index rises again on increases in NE Asia The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) rose for the second consecutive week in the week ended 11 October, by 0.3%, again due to price increases in northeast Asia. Argentina’s Rio Tercero shuts TDI plant on global oversupply Petroquimica Rio Tercero has shut its toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) plant in Cordoba on the back of global oversupply, a spokesperson for the Argentinian producer confirmed to ICIS on Tuesday. Brazil’s Senate approves EU Reach-like rules to increase chemicals control Brazil’s Senate approved on 15 October the creation of a National Inventory of Chemical Substances aiming at “reducing negative impacts” of toxic chemicals on human and environmental health. INSIGHT: Decarbonized chemicals, plastics gain momentum with multiple production pathways Momentum is building in the zero-to-low carbon chemicals and plastics space with many different pathways to production that will give customers more options to reduce their carbon footprint. US Ascend to close South Carolina plant, move polymer production to Florida Ascend Performance Materials plans to shut down its remaining operations Greenwood, South Carolina, and move the site's polymer production to its complex in Pensacola, Florida, US-based nylon producer said on Friday.

21-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascend Performance Materials plans to shut down its remaining operations Greenwood, South Carolina, and move the site's polymer production to its complex in Pensacola, Florida, US-based nylon producer said on Friday. The Greenwood site produces nylon 6,6 products based on monomers made from its other locations. The site makes nylon 6,6 polymer chips for textiles, bulk continuous filament (BCF) fiber for carpets, as well as industrial fibres for high-tenacity and technical fiber applications such as tire yarn and airbags. In January 2024, Ascend said it would end industrial fiber spinning operations in Greenwood. By early 2025, it will end all other operations in Greenwood. Earlier on Friday, Ascend confirmed that was laying off workers at its Pensacola complex in the face of lower demand for automobiles, housing and consumer goods, a global trend that has persisted for the past two years. It did not specify the number of people who were laid off. The layoffs were completed in late September, Ascend said. Thumbnail Photo: Nylon. (By Shutterstock) (adds paragraph 5)

18-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Some ports in Florida have resumed operations while millions in the US state remain without power after Hurricane Milton made landfall earlier in the week, south of the fertilizer hub of Tampa. A few ports in Florida have maintained Port Condition Zulu, under which they are closed to inbound and outbound vessels. Others have reopened and have set Port Condition IV, which is a hurricane seasonal alert to which ports return after a storm. The following table summarizes the port conditions in Florida. Port Status Condition Port of Pensacola Open Normal Port Panama City Open Draft restrictions Port St Joe Open Normal Port Tampa Bay Closed Zulu SeaPort Manatee Closed Zulu PortMiami Open IV Port Everglades Open IV Port of Palm Beach Open IV Fort Pierce Open with Restrictions IV with restrictions Port Canaveral Open IV Jaxport Open IV Port of Fernandina Closed Zulu Source: US Coast Guard OUTAGESFlorida has more than 2.2 million reported outages, according to the website poweroutage.us. That is down by more than 1 million versus the immediate aftermath of the hurricane. Prolonged outages can disrupt economic activity and slow down demand for plastics and chemicals. CSX WARNS OF RAIL DELAYSThe railroad company CSX warned of delays while it works to clear tracks, install generators and conduct repairs. All routes north of Jacksonville, Florida are open with no anticipated issues, it said. The area south, from Callahan to the north end of Anthony, is also clear. Work continues in central Florida, and CSX is addressing washouts on the Carter and Vitis subdivisions. The CFR line should be open later Friday night, providing a potential route into Winter Haven. CSX is making contingency plans for possible issues with a gas pipe washout near the Miami area. IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES, CHEMSFor chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins. Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters in Tampa. The company has not issued any statements regarding its corporate operations. A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply with the evacuation orders. Near Tampa is Florida's phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties. In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to restart its White Springs phosphate operations following Helene, an earlier hurricane that made landfall farther north in Florida’s Big Bend region. On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview operations were off line following water intrusion from a storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene. Thumbnail Photo: Hurricane Milton. (By Cira/Noaa/Planet Pix via ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)

11-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nearly 3.4 million outages have been reported in Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, which made landfall as a powerful Category 3 hurricane near Sarasota, Florida, south of the important fertilizer hub of Tampa. Milton may have caused more damage had it passed over Tampa, according to CoreLogic, an insurance data company. RAIL UPDATERailroad company CSX said it has relocated all of its locomotives and cars from low-lying areas in Tampa and rerouted them. CSX operations will continue in and out of Waycross from the north, east and west directions. It will continue operating into and out of the intermodal ramps at Jacksonville, Florida. On 8 October, CSX said it had taken the following steps. Closed the Central Florida ILC intermodal gate. Closed the Tampa, FL intermodal gate. Closed the TRANSFLO terminals at Tampa, Tampa Port and Sanford. Another railroad company, Norfolk Southern, has not updated its notice from 7 October, when it said it was monitoring and preparing for Hurricane Milton. FLORIDA PORTS REMAIN CLOSEDMany ports in Florida have maintained their Zulu port conditions, which means they are closed to inbound and outbound vessels. The following table summarizes the conditions among the major ports in Florida. Port Status Condition Port of Pensacola Open Normal Port Panama City Open Draft restrictions Port St Joe Open Normal Port Tampa Bay Closed Zulu SeaPort Manatee Closed Zulu PortMiami Open Yankee Port Everglades Open Yankee Port of Palm Beach Closed Zulu Fort Pierce Closed Zulu Port Canaveral Closed Zulu Jaxport Closed Zulu Port of Fernandina Closed Zulu Source: US Coast Guard. IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES, CHEMSFor chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins. Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters in Tampa. The company has not issued any statements regarding its corporate operations. A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply with the evacuation orders. Near Tampa is Florida's phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties. In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to restart its White Springs phosphate operations following Helene, an earlier hurricane that made landfall farther north in Florida’s Big Bend region. On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview operations were off line following water intrusion from a storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene. POSSIBLE DAMAGEHurricane Milton could be extremely destructive because of its winds, rainfall and storm surge. It will pass over the following metropolitan statistical areas. Region Population Tampa 3,342,963 Orlando 2,817,933 Jacksonville 1,713,240 Sarasota 910,108 Source: US Census Bureau CoreLogic, the insurance data company, said Milton’s shift to the south of Tampa could limit the magnitude of insured losses. CHEMS AND RECONSTRUCTIONFor hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate into increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. PUs are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High-density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipes. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPRs) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives.

10-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Railroad company CSX is suspending operations at several of its intermodal and TRANSFLO terminals in Florida ahead of Milton, which has shifted its path away from Tampa, a major fertilizer hub. If Milton maintains its latest forecasted path, it could spare Tampa of the worst damage, according to CoreLogic, an insurance data company. Milton's maximum sustained winds are nearly 145 miles/h (230 km/h), making it a Category 4 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Milton is expected to weaken to a Category 3 hurricane and make landfall later on Wednesday south of Tampa near Sarasota, Florida, CoreLogic said. Milton will then pass over central Florida. RAIL DISRUPTIONSRail shipments through the Tampa area will likely face delays until Milton passes, CSX said. It expects multiple downed trees and power outages in the Wildwood, Lakeland and surrounding Tampa subdivisions. Lakeland and nearby Kathleen are near Tampa and are home to some thermoset resin plants. CSX has taken the following actions: Closed the Central Florida ILC intermodal gate. Closed the Tampa, FL intermodal gate. Closed the TRANSFLO terminals at Tampa and Tampa Port. Will close the Sanford TRANSFLO terminal midday on Wednesday. Another railroad company, Norfolk Southern, has not updated its notice from 7 October, when it said that it is monitoring and preparing for Hurricane Milton. MORE PORTS CLOSESome of Florida's ports on the Atlantic coast have set conditions to Zulu, meaning that they are closed to inbound and outbound vessels. The following table summarizes the port conditions along the eastern and western coasts of Florida. Port Status Condition Port of Pensacola Open Port Panama City Open X-Ray Port St Joe Open X-Ray Port Tampa Bay Closed Zulu SeaPort Manatee Closed Zulu PortMiami Open Yankee Port Everglades Open Yankee Port of Palm Beach Closed Zulu Fort Pierce Closed Zulu Port Canaveral Closed Zulu Jaxport Closed Zulu Port of Fernandina Closed Zulu Source: ports, US Coast Guard IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES, CHEMSFor chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins. Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters in Tampa. The company has not issued any statements regarding its corporate operations. A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply with the evacuation orders. Near Tampa is Florida's phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties. In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to restart its White Springs phosphate operations following Helene, an earlier hurricane that made landfall farther north in Florida's Big Bend region. On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview operations were offline following water intrusion from a storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene. POSSIBLE DAMAGEHurricane Milton could be extremely destructive because of its winds, rainfall and storm surge. It will pass over the following metropolitan statistical areas. Region Population Tampa 3,342,963 Orlando 2,817,933 Jacksonville 1,713,240 Sarasota 910,108 Source: US Census Bureau The following map shows the expected path of Milton. Source: National Hurricane Center CoreLogic, the insurance data company, said Milton's shift to the south of Tampa could limit the magnitude of insured losses. The following map compares three insured loss scenarios based on Milton's path. Source: CoreLogic The following map shows Milton's expected storm surges. Source: National Hurricane Center. The following map shows three-day rain totals. Source: CoreLogic CHEMS AND RECONSTRUCTIONFor hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives. Thumbnail shows an image of Hurricane Milton. Image by the National Hurricane Center. 

09-Oct-2024