Ethyl acetate (ETAC) & butyl acetate (BUTAC)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average container rates ticked lower last week, along with rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast, but rates from Asia-New York held steady during what is typically the slow season for transpacific ocean freight. Shipping analysts said rates remain elevated for several reasons, most significantly the frontloading of imports ahead of possible renewed labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports. The possible implementation of new tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration is also keeping upward pressure on rates. Global average rates fell by 2% for the week ended 29 November, as shown in the following chart from supply chain advisors Drewry. The following chart from Drewry shows the rates from Asia to both US coasts. Drewry expects spot rates to be relatively stable this week. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said inland truck and rail rates could also face upward pressure as tariffs aimed specifically at Canada and Mexico could lead to increased cross-border volumes. Levine said congestion remains minimal at US ports, including the main West Coast port of Los Angeles/Long Beach. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said container ship traffic through the port continues to be steady with 67 container ships enroute and 12 scheduled to arrive in the next three days. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID RATES STEADY Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane, as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Colombia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting contract of affreightment (COA) nominations. The USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh enquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

02-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 29 November. Final round of UN plastics treaty talks begin in South Korea By Nurluqman Suratman 25-Nov-24 12:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The fifth and final round of United Nations (UN)-led negotiations for a global plastics treaty to combat plastic pollution kicked off in Busan, South Korea, on Monday. INSIGHT: China cuts PV export tax rebate; EVA sector faces margin squeeze By Joanne Wang 25-Nov-24 18:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced on 15 November a reduction in export tax rebate rate for solar products, including photovoltaic (PV), batteries and other certain products, from 13% to 9%. Asia petrochemical shares slip; Trump eyes 10% new tariffs for China By Nurluqman Suratman 26-Nov-24 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian petrochemical shares were mostly lower on Tuesday after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts demand weighed down by feedstock PKO volatility By Helen Yan 27-Nov-24 10:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohol mid-cuts market is likely to see a lull in spot activities in the near term as a widening buy-sell price gap has hampered trades. World Plastics Council, Global Plastics Alliance urge governments to secure UN plastics treaty By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Nov-24 12:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The World Plastics Council (WPC) and Global Plastics Alliance (GPA) members are urging governments to finalize a landmark treaty to end plastic pollution through scaled-up waste management and recycling, while respecting countries’ differing needs. Thailand to compete for spot Asia ACN, MMA as PTTAC plants close By Jonathan Yee 27-Nov-24 15:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand will have to tap the spot Asian markets for acrylonitrile (ACN) and methyl methacrylate (MMA) for its domestic requirements starting 2025 following closures of PTT Asahi Chemical (PTTAC)’s plants in Map Ta Phut. S Korea central bank cuts key interest rate anew; trims GDP forecasts By Jonathan Yee 28-Nov-24 11:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s central bank on Thursday made a surprise cut to its key interest rate, following a similar move in the previous month, amid concerns over economic implications of the US’ impending tariffs on all foreign goods. Asia butac, etac markets languish in slow demand By Melanie Wee 29-Nov-24 13:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Pacific butyl acetate (butac) markets were undermined by slowing demand entering the year-end lull against a backdrop of ample regional supply.

02-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US East Coast were largely flat and rates to the West Coast fell by 5%, and the Panama Canal will begin allowing swapping of slots on 1 January, highlighting shipping news this week. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Global average rates ticked lower by 1% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Asia to New York were largely stable on the week while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to remain stable over the coming week. Drewry’s assessment has rates to the East Coast about $700/40-foot equivalent units (FEU) higher than to the West Coast. Online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos has rates to both coasts nearly at parity slightly higher than Drewry’s East Coast rate. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said transpacific ocean rates are about 35%-45% below peak levels seen in July now that the peak season has ended. He said upward pressure remains from stronger than normal demand as some shippers are frontloading volumes ahead of expected tariff increases from the new administration as well as the possibility of another work stoppage at US East Coast ports as the 15 January deadline to finalize a new collective bargaining agreement nears. Levine noted that Lunar New Year starts at the end of January this year, which is earlier than usual. The unusual parity of transpacific rates to both coasts may point to some shift of demand to the West Coast due to January strike concerns, Levine said. LIQUID TANKER RATES – USG-BRAZIL TICKS HIGHER Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates was largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Columbia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting COA nominations. USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Bunker prices rose, mainly due to the increase in energy prices following continued geopolitical concerns. PANAMA CANAL TO ALLOW SWAPPING OF SLOTS The Panama Canal will begin allowing swapping and substitutions of booking slots between container vessels with some conditions beginning 1 January, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said. The conditions are that both vessels must be the same type and must belong to the containership segment, both vessels must belong to the same vessel classification (Neopanamax, Super or Regular), and both vessels must be transiting in the same direction. Also, for swaps, vessels must have similar transit restrictions, and for substitutions, the new vessel must have similar or lesser transit restrictions, both vessel operators must belong to services under the same cooperative working agreement (Global Alliances or VSA), and the booking date of the vessels involved in the swap or substitution must be within the effective date of the services and of the Alliance or VSA. All other Long Term Slot Allocation method (LoTSA) and ordinary booking slots rules remain in effect. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

22-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could make a decision any day that would allow California to adopt an aggressive electric vehicle program, triggering similar programs in 12 other states and territories that will likely become the target for repeal under President-Elect Donald Trump. During his campaign, Trump has expressed opposition to policies that favor one drive-train technology over another, saying that he would  "cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations". California's EV program is called Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), and it works by requiring EVs, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids to make up an ever-increasing share of the state's auto sales. Other programs that encourage the adoption of EVs could be more vulnerable to repeal and rollbacks under Trump ACC II COULD BOOST EV DEMAND IN 13 STATESBefore California can adopt its ACC II program for EVs, it needs the EPA to grant it a waiver from the US Clean Air Act.  The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said it is expecting a decision from the EPA at any time. If the EPA receives the waiver, then it will trigger the adoption of similar ACC II programs the following states and territories. The figures in parentheses represent each state's share of light-vehicle registrations. California (11.6%) New York (5.6%) Colorado (1.8%) Oregon (1.0%) Delaware (0.3%) Rhode Island (0.3%) Maryland (1.8%) Vermont (0.3%) Massachusetts (2.1%) Washington (1.9%) New Jersey (3.4%) Washington DC (not available) New Mexico (0.5) Source: CARB In total, the 13 states and territories represent at least 30.6% of US light-vehicle registrations, according to CARB. HOW THE ACCII SUPPORTS EV DEMANDThe following chart shows the share of electric-based vehicles that would need to be sold in California by model year under the state's ACC II regulations. Programs in other states and territories have similar targets. ZEV stands for zero-emission vehicle and includes EVs and vehicles with fuel cells Source: California Air Resources Board REPEALING THE ACC IIThe key to California's ACC II programs is the EPA's decision to grant it a waiver to the Clean Air Act. Trump will likely revoke that waiver if it is granted before he takes office, according to the law firm Gibson Dunn. It expects that California will respond by threatening to retroactively enforce the ACC II program once a friendlier president takes office after Trump's term ends in four years. Auto makers could choose to take California's threat seriously and reach an agreement with the state. A similar scenario unfolded during Trump's first term of office in 2016-2020 that involved California's earlier Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) program, according to Gibson Dunn. That program also required a waiver from the EPA, and the dispute was resolved only after Joe Biden restored the waiver after becoming president in 2021. For the possible dispute over the ACC II program, it could take the courts determine whether California can retroactively enforce the program. FEDERAL PROGRAMS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO REPEALThe following federal programs could be more vulnerable to roll backs under Trump. The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation's (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These standards became stricter in 2024. A tax credit worth up to $7,500 for buyers of EVs under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trade groups have argued that the CAFE standards and the tailpipe rules are so strict, they function as effective EV programs. They allege that automobile producers can only meet them by making more EVs. The following table shows the current tailpipe rule. Figures are listed in grams of CO2 emitted per mile driven. 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Cars 131 139 125 112 99 86 73 Trucks 184 184 165 146 128 109 90 Total Fleet 168 170 153 136 119 102 85 Source: EPA The following table shows the fuel efficiency standards under the current CAFE program. Figures are in miles/gallon. 2022 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Passenger cars 44.1 60.0 61.2 62.5 63.7 65.1 Light trucks 32.1 42.6 42.6 43.5 44.3 45.2 Light vehicles 35.8 47.3 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.4 Source: DOT Gibson Dunn expect Trump's administration will rescind the tailpipe rule and roll back the CAFE standards to levels for model year 2020 vehicles. That would lower the CAFE standards for light vehicles to 35 miles/gal. EVS AND CHEMICALSEVs represent a small but growing market for the chemical industry, because they consume a lot more plastics and chemicals than automobiles powered by ICEs. A mid-size EV contains 45% more plastics and polymer composites and 52% more synthetic rubber and elastomers, according to a May 2024 report by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). EVs also contain higher value materials such as carbon fiber composites and semiconductors, making the total value of chemistry in the automobiles up to 85% higher than in a comparable ICE, according to the ACC. The following chart compares material consumptions in EVs and ICEs. Source: ACC EVs have material challenges that go beyond making them lighter and more energy efficient, such as managing heat from their batteries and tolerating high voltages. Major chemical and material producer are eager to develop materials that can meet these challenges and command the price premiums offered by EVs. Most have EV portfolios and prominently feature them at trade shows A rollback of US incentives for EVs could slow their adoption and weaken demand for these materials. Materials most vulnerable to these rollbacks would include heat management fluids and chemicals used to make electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, such as dimethyl carbonate (DMC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC). Other materials used in batteries include polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) and ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMW-PE). Insight by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows an EV. Image by Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/Shutterstock

21-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 November. INSIGHT: India’s ADD findings on PVC have potential to reshape regional flows in wider Asia By Jonathan Chou 11-Nov-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market players are assessing the potential ramifications following preliminary findings on India's PVC imports released by the country's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). Asia petrochemical shares tumble as China stimulus disappoints By Jonathan Yee 11-Nov-24 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia tumbled on Monday as China’s much-awaited stimulus measures failed to impress markets, while the US is likely to put up more trade barriers against the Asian giant following the re-election of Donald Trump as president. Asia toluene markets slump on waning regional demand By Melanie Wee 12-Nov-24 11:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s toluene spot markets are being weighed down by a combination of burgeoning supply and lacklustre demand, at a time when arbitrage economics to divert material to the US were unviable. Asia petrochemical shares fall on strong US dollar, uncertain trade policies By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Nov-24 14:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. Shell Singapore site divestment deal to be completed in Q1 2025 By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Nov-24 11:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. INSIGHT: China may accelerate PP exports amid intensified supply and demand imbalance By Lucy Shuai 14-Nov-24 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China may accelerate PP exports in 2025 amid an intensified imbalance between supply and demand as a large number of new plants are expected to start up. PODCAST: SE Asia propylene to face additional supply, freight challenges in 2025 By Damini Dabholkar 15-Nov-24 11:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia's propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand. Crimped supplies ease pressure on Asia VAM prices By Hwee Hwee Tan 15-Nov-24 14:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sporadic plant disruptions and crimped supplies in China are fuelling expectations of price competition easing across vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import markets in Asia.

18-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Under US President Donald Trump, US chemical companies will unlikely see the full-blown tariffs that he has proposed during his campaign, but they will operate under a faster growing economy with higher inflation and interest rates that will settle at an elevated rate, economists at Oxford Economics said on Monday. Oxford is forecasting what it calls a limited Trump scenario, under which his administration will not fully adopt the policies he proposed during his campaign. Tariffs will be limited, targeted and phased in, while Congress will limit growth in the government deficit by restraining some of his tax cuts and spending measures. Oxford's baseline scenario for 2025 does not change much because it is assuming that Trump will focus most of his first year in office on extending the tax cuts of his earlier administration, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist for Oxford Economics. He made his comments during a presentation. The consultancy's forecast for 2025 GDP is a tenth of a point higher versus its estimate in October, he said. Inflation will rise by a tenth of a point in 2025. Trump is inheriting a strong economy, so there is little risk of recession. In these initial years, the biggest effect on the US economy will be tax cuts, and these should increase growth in GDP, said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist for Oxford. After 2026, Oxford assumes Trump will adopt some of his immigration restrictions, and it is expecting GDP growth to fall below its earlier forecast. Stricter immigration policies will reduce the supply of labor and slow down the consumption of goods and services. LIMITED TARIFFSOxford expects the Trump administration will not impose the widespread tariffs it proposed during its campaign, which included 60% duties on Chinese imports and baseline tariffs of 10-20% on all imports. Yaros said these campaign proposals were likely negotiating tactics. Sweet expects that Trump will require Congress to pass some of his tariffs, and legislators will not pass such high rates, Sweet said. In other cases, advisors and trade representatives will restrain Trump. For China, Trump will likely impose tariffs of 25% on major categories, such as machinery, electronics and chemicals, Yaros said. For the EU, Canada and Mexico, Trump will likely impose very targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, base metals and motor vehicles, Yaros said. For Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump will unlikely adopt measures that will threaten the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade agreement that his administration signed during his first term. That trade deal was one of the signature achievements of Trump's administration, so he will not want to pursue policies that will threaten the upcoming renewal of that agreement, Yaros said. While the tariffs will be limited, they will still be a drag on the economy by nudging inflation higher, reducing real consumer income, tempering consumer spending and encouraging the misallocation of resources, Yaros said. LIMITED TARIFFS REDUCE RETALIATION RISK FOR CHEMSOxford's scenario will limit the risk of countries imposing retaliatory tariffs on US exports. US chemical producers were vulnerable to such tariffs because they purposely added capacity for export over the years, particularly for polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The magnitude of these exports and the existence of a global glut in plastics and chemicals would make US chemical exports a likely target for retaliatory tariffs. On the import side, the US does have deficits in key commodity chemicals, such as benzene. Targeted tariffs could carve out exceptions for benzene was well as other chemicals in which the US has a trade deficit, such as methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and melamine. Targeted tariffs will likely rule out duties on imports of oil. US refineries rely on imports of heavier grades of oil to optimize the operations of some of their units. US shale oil makes up nearly all of the growth in the nation's crude production, and that oil is made up of light grades. Meanwhile, tariffs could shield some chemicals from competition, such as epoxy resins. CONGRESS MAY LIMIT GROWTH IN DEFICITOxford pointed out that some moderate Republicans could restrain some of Trump's tax and spending proposals to limit growth in the government deficit, Yaros said. Other economists have expressed concerns that the US will issue larger amounts of government debt to fund the growing deficit. That would lead to a cascade effect that could ultimately increase rates for US mortgages, which would slow down the housing market and the plastics and chemicals connected to that market. Still, all of Oxford's scenarios forecast a rise in the government deficit. SLOWER RATE CUTS BY FEDOxford expects Trump's policies will be inflationary, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of cuts on their benchmark federal funds rate. It expects the federal funds rate will settle at 3.125%, versus its forecast of 2.75% that was made in October. TRUMP WILL PRESERVE MOST RENEWABLE TAX CREDITSTrump will likely preserve most of the tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) because most of them benefitted states controlled by his party, the Republicans, Yaros said. These include tax credits on renewable fuels, renewable power, hydrogen and carbon capture. The exception will include incentives for electric vehicles (EV), which Trump had singled out during his campaign, Yaros said. OXFORD'S FORECASTThe following chart shows Oxford's new baseline forecast and compares it with a scenario under which the policies of the previous administration are maintained. The following chart shows Oxford's forecast that assumes Trump will fully adopt all of his campaign proposals. This is not the consultancy's baseline forecast because it does not expect such a full-blown Trump scenario will happen. Thumbnail shows the US Capitol. Image by  photo by Lucky-photographer.

11-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Oil and gas production, the main source of the feedstock and energy used by the petrochemical industry, should benefit from policies proposed by President-Elect Donald Trump, while hydrogen and renewable fuels could lose some of the support they receive from the federal government. Trump expressed enthusiastic and consistent support for oil and gas production during his campaign. He pledged to remove what he called the electric vehicle (EV) mandate of his predecessor, President Joe Biden. Trump may attempt to eliminate green energy subsidies in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) BRIGHTER SENTIMENT ON ENERGYRegardless of who holds the presidency, US oil and gas production has grown because much of it has taken place on the private lands of the Permian basin. Private land is free from federal restrictions and moratoria on leases. That said, the federal government could indirectly restrict energy production, and statements from the president could sour the sentiment in the industry. During his term, US President Joe Biden antagonized the industry by accusing it of price gouging, halting new permits for LNG permits and revoking the permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day in office. By contrast, Trump has pledged to remove federal impediments to the industry, such as permits, taxes, leases and restrictions on drilling. WHY ENERGY POLICY MATTERSPrices for plastics and chemicals tend to rise and fall with those for oil. For US producers, feedstock costs for ethylene tend to rise and fall with those for natural gas. Also, most of the feedstock used by chemical producers comes from oil and gas production. Policies that encourage energy production should lower costs for chemical plants. RETREAT FROM RENEWABLES, EVsTrump has pledged to reverse many of the sustainability policies made by Biden. Just as Trump did in his first term, he would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. For electric vehicles (EVs), Trump said he would "cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations". He said he would end the following policies: The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation's (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These became stricter in 2024. The EPA was expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II) program, which would phase out the sale of combustion-based vehicles by 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. Given Trump's opposition to government restrictions on combustion-based automobiles, the EPA would likely reject California's proposal under his presidency or attempt to reverse it if approved before Biden leaves office. According to the Tax Foundation, Trump would try to eliminate the green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These included tax credits for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), blue hydrogen, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. In regards to the UN plastic treaty, it is unclear if the US would ratify it, regardless of Trump's position. The treaty could include a cap on plastic production, and such a provision would sink the treaty's chances of passing the US Senate. For renewable plastics, much of the support from the government involves research and development (R&D), so it did little to foster industrial scale production. WHY EVs AND RENEWABLES MATTERPolicies that promote the adoption of EVs would increase demand for materials used to build the vehicles and their batteries. Companies are developing polymers that can meet the heat and electrical challenges of EVs while reducing their weight. Heat management fluids made from base oils could help control the temperature of EV batteries and other components. If such EV policies reduce demand for combustion-based vehicles, then that could threaten margins for refineries. These produce benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) in catalytic reformers and propylene in fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). Lower demand for combustion-based vehicles would also reduce the need for lubricating oil for engines, which would decrease demand for some groups of base oils. Polices that promote renewable power could help companies meet internal sustainability goals and increase demand for epoxy resins used in wind turbines and materials used in solar panels, such as ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyvinyl butyral (PVB). Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows the White House. Image by Lucky-photographer.

07-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US President-Elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose more tariffs, lower corporate taxes and lighten companies' regulatory burden, a continuation of what US chemical producers saw during his first term of office in 2016-2020. More tariffs could leave chemical exports vulnerable to retaliation because of their magnitude and the size of the global supply glut. Trump pledged to reverse the surge in regulations that characterized term of President Joe Biden. Lower corporate taxes could benefit US chems, but longer term, rising government debt could keep interest rates elevated and prolong the slump in housing and durable goods. MORE TARIFFSTrump pledged to add more tariffs to the ones he introduced during his first term as president, as show below. Baseline tariffs of 10-20%, mentioned during an August 14 rally in Asheville, North Carolina. Tariffs of 60% on imports from China. A reciprocal trade act, under which the US would match tariffs imposed on its exports. WHY TRADE POLICY MATTERS FOR CHEMICALSTrade policy is important to the US chemical industry because producers purposely built excess capacity to take advantage of cheap feedstock and profitably export material abroad. Such large surpluses leave US chemical producers vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. The danger is heightened because the world has excess capacity of several plastics and chemicals, and plants are running well below nameplate capacity. At the least, retaliatory tariffs would re-arrange supply chains, adding costs and reducing margins. At the worst, the retaliatory tariffs would reach levels that would make US exports uncompetitive in some markets. Countries with plants running below nameplate capacity could offset the decline in US exports by raising utilization rates. Baseline tariffs would hurt US chemical producers on the import side. The US has deficits in some key commodity chemicals, principally benzene, melamine and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). In the case of benzene, companies will not build new refineries or naphtha crackers to produce more benzene. Buyers will face higher benzene costs, and those costs will trickle down to chemicals made from benzene. Tariffs on imports of oil would raise costs for US refiners because they rely on foreign shipments of heavier grades to optimize downstream units. The growth in US oil production is in lighter grades from its shale fields, and these lighter grades are inappropriate for some refining units. REGULATORY RELIEFUnder Trump, the US chemical industry should get a break from the surge in regulations that characterized the Biden administration. The flood led the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) to call the first half of 2024 the worst regulatory climate ever for the chemical industry. The American Chemistry Council (ACC) has warned about the dangers of excessive regulations and urged the Biden administration to create a committee to review the effects new proposals could have on existing policies. Trump said he would re-introduce his policy of removing two regulations for every new one created. Trump has a whole section of his website dedicated to what he called the "wasteful and job-killing regulatory onslaught". One plank of the platform of the Republican Party is to "cut costly and burdensome regulations". LOWER TAXES AT EXPENSE OF DEFICITTrump pledged to make nearly all of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent and add the following new tax cuts, according to the Tax Foundation, a policy think tank. Lower the corporate tax rate for domestic production to 15%. Eliminate green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Exempt tips, Social Security benefits and overtime pay from income taxes. At best, the resulting economic growth, the contributions from tariffs and cuts in government spending would offset the effects of the tax cuts. The danger is that the tariffs, the cuts and the growth growth are insufficient to offset the decline in revenue that results from the tax cuts. The Tax Foundation is forecasting the latter and expects that that the 10-year budget deficit will increase by $3 trillion. To fund the growing deficit, the US government will issue more debt, which will increase the supply of Treasury notes and cause their price to drop. Yields on debt are inversely related to prices, so rates will increase as prices drop. Economists have warned that a growing government deficit will maintain elevated rates for 10-year Treasury notes, US mortgages and other types of longer term debt. Higher rates have caused some selective defaults among chemical companies and led to a downturn in housing and durable goods, two key chemical end markets. If the US deficit continues to grow and if interest rates remain elevated, then more US chemical companies could default and producers could contend with a longer downturn in housing and durable goods. A second post-election insight piece, covering the future landscape for energy policy, will run on Thursday at 08:00 CST. Front page picture: The US Capitol in Washington  Source: Lucky-photographer Insight article by Al Greenwood

06-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi petrochemical giant SABIC has lowered its capital expenditure (capex) guidance for 2024 as it prioritizes investments in higher-margin opportunities to mitigate overcapacity in the face of poor global demand. Full-year capex cut to $3.3 billion to $3.9 billion Future capex to focus on China, low-carbon projects Margins to remain under pressure for rest of 2024 SABIC reduced its full-year capex by about 25% to between $3.3 billion and $3.9 billion, from $4 billion and $5 billion previously, it said in its third-quarter earnings report released on 4 November. The new capex projection comes after SABIC swung to net profit of Saudi riyal (SR) 1 billion ($267 million) in Q3, from a loss of SR2.88 billion in the same period of last year. This turnaround is primarily due to higher operating income, driven by improved gross profit margins and a divestment gain from the firm's functional forms business. Q3 losses from discontinued operations, mainly related to the Saudi Iron and Steel Co (Hadeed), decreased significantly from the same period last year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, SABIC net profit fell by 54% mostly due to previous Q2 non-cash gains partly resulting from new regulations on Islamic tax. The reversal of zakat provision, which is a mandatory Islamic tax on wealth, resulted in a non-cash benefit of SR545 million in Q2 2024. SABIC registered a Q3 zakat expense of SR397 million. FOCUS ON CHINA Ratings firm Fitch in a note said that it expects SABIC's capex to grow to an average of SR17 billion ($4.5 billion) in 2024-2025 and around SR14 billion in 2026-2027. "In our view, investments will be driven by expansion of its low carbon product portfolio and a pipeline of opportunities in China and the Middle East," it said. This includes the recently sanctioned $6.4 billion joint venture petrochemical complex in Fujian, China, as well as the construction of the largest on-purpose single train methyl tertiary butyl ethe (MTBE) plant in the world in Saudi Arabia," Fitch said. SABIC is exploring options for a petrochemical complex in Oman and an oil-to-chemicals project in Ras Al-Khair in its home country, according to the ratings firm. Fitch also expects acceleration of "green capex" after 2025 as SABIC plans to earmark 10% of its annual expenditures on carbon-neutrality initiatives by 2030. "The key projects will be focused on improved energy efficiencies, increased use of renewable energy in operations, and carbon capture of up to a potential 2 million tonnes, leveraging Saudi Aramco's carbon capture and storage (CCS) hub in Jubail," Fitch said. SABIC, which is 70% owned by oil giant Aramco, had stated in August that its long-term focus would remain on optimizing its portfolio and restructuring underperforming assets. PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION AMID MARKET CHALLENGES SABIC CEO Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh said on 4 November that overcapacity continues to weigh on the petrochemicals market, with current utilization rates remaining below long-term averages. "Furthermore, PMI [manufacturing purchasing managers’ index] data indicated a decline in global economic conditions," he added. The company has initiated several portfolio-optimization measures, including discontinuing its naphtha cracker in the Netherlands and disposals of non-core assets such as its steel unit Hadeed in 2023 and a recently announced divestments of 20% shareholding in Aluminium Bahrain (Alba). SABIC's margins are expected to remain under pressure this year before they gradually recover to mid-cycle levels of around 20% by 2026 on market improvement and portfolio-optimization measures, according to Fitch. ($1 = SR3.75) Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

05-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Celanese plans to cut its quarterly dividend by 95% in Q1 2025 and idle plants in every region after third-quarter adjusted earnings fell well below guidance, the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Monday. Q3 adjusted earnings/share were $2.44 versus an earlier guidance of $2.75-3.00. Celanese shares were down by more than 13% in afterhours trading. Celanese is taking the following steps to cut down debt: It will temporarily idle plants in every region to reduce manufacturing costs through the end of 2024 It expects to generate an expected $200 million inventory release in the fourth quarter. The idling includes 10 sites in the company's Engineered Materials segment. In the first half of the fourth quarter, Celanese has temporarily idled the company's Singapore production of acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), esters and vinyl acetate emulsions (VAE). In Frankfurt, Germany, the company is idling its VAM plant and plans to use it as swing capacity to meet demand. It will start a program to reduce costs by more than $75 million by the end of 2025. The cost cutting will target selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. It will target $400 million in 2025 capital expenditures, a figure below 2024 levels. It will close on a 364-day delayed draw prepayable term loan for up to $1 billion. It will draw on the term loan in Q1 2025 towards $1.3 billion in maturing debt. TOUGH THIRD QUARTERThe plant shutdowns, dividend reduction and cost cutting follow a third quarter that saw demand degrade rapidly and acutely in automobiles and industrial end markets. "Auto in Europe and North America experienced a shock to the demand patterns that had been relatively steady for the previous several quarters, with swift sales declines in both regions that led to a pullback in auto builds," said Scott Richardson, chief operating officer. Demand remained slow in Asia but did not show the same trajectory as the Americas. The company noted that prices in China for undifferentiated nylon polymer reflects supply that is growing faster than demand. Demand remained weak in paints, coatings and construction. New capacity for VAM came online and outpaced demand, amplifying the weakness in construction as well as in solar panels. Excess inventories in solar panels is weakening demand for ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The weakness more than offset the gains that Celanese made from its synergy projects in its Mobility and Materials (M&M) acquisition and from its acetic acid expansion project in Clear Lake, Texas. WORSE FOURTH QUARTERQ4 destocking in the automotive and industrial end markets should be heavier than normal, and Celanese expects demand to worsen in the fourth quarter. The destocking should be temporary and contained in the quarter. In Engineered Materials, Celanese expects a $40 million hit from the destocking. Another $15 million hit will come from seasonal declines associated with product mix. A further $15 million will come from temporarily idling capacity in the segment. For acetyls, Celanese is not seeing any indications of demand growth in anticipation of the first quarter or as a result of stimulus from China. For the company, Q4 adjusted earnings/share should be $1.25. Q3 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEThe following table shows the company's Q3 financial performance. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q3 24 Q3 23 % Change Sales 2,648 2,723 -2.8% Cost of sales 2,026 2,050 -1.2% Gross profit 622 673 -7.6% Net income 116 951 -87.8% Source: Celanese Earnings in Q3 2023 reflect a $503 million one-time gain from the sale of assets. Thumbnail shows adhesive, which is made with VAM. Image by Shutterstock.

04-Nov-2024