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Methanol is primarily produced from surplus coal and natural gas and used to produce methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), acetic acid, and formaldehyde. It has many general solvent and antifreeze applications and can be used to fuel internal combustion engines, although it is usually blended with gasoline.
Formaldehyde is used in pressed wood products, disinfectants and adhesives. It is also used to make chemicals for construction, automotive, healthcare and consumer products and applications. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than 60% of global consumption of formaldehyde and the construction industry is the largest global consumer by sector.
Market growth is propelled by growing demand for alternative fuel applications and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technology, but hampered by fluctuating methanol prices.
ICIS provides actionable market news in real time including weekly price updates (daily for Asia). We cover pricing trends, market news, and market fundamentals in each region and our editors in China, Singapore, London, and Houston provide a comprehensive view of the global market.
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SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates fall as carriers seek to boost demand during LNY lull
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US edged lower this week as carriers have reduced short-term rates to both coasts to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year (LNY). Analysts at freight forwarder Flexport said that pre-LNY demand has slowed, resulting in low carrier vessel utilization rates and a softening market. Rates from Shanghai to New York fell by 4% from the previous week and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming weeks due to increased capacity. Global average rates fell by 3%, as shown in the following chart. Flexport analysts said that space remains constrained following the pre-LNY rush, especially on fixed allocations, but some strings still have open space, especially to the West Coast and, to a lesser extent, the East Coast. Carriers have planned 11% blank sailings during the LNY period, aligning with network adjustments. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. USG-ASIA CHEM TANKER RATES TICK LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady to lower for most trade lanes this week, with slight decreases on the US Gulf (USG) to Asia trade lane. There are bigger gaps of vessel space showing in January. Therefore, there are a backlog of outsiders looking for opportunities, which weighed on spot rates this week, pushing them lower. From the USG to Rotterdam, there has been a lull in activity on this route as contract space for January is soft, leaving players looking for additional cargoes to complete space for a few tanks. Styrene monomer, glycol and methanol has been said to be a popular commodity within this trade lane. As a result, smaller parcel freights have taken a steep drop from January loadings, while larger parcel sizes seem destined for the same and rates decreasing, according to a broker, various glycol and methanol cargos have keen interest along this route. From the USG to Brazil, there are a few outsiders open for the end of January to early February, along with some regulars with some small pocket space. This trade lane is expected to face some downward pressure as the list of fully open vessels presently continues to grow, according to a broker. Meanwhile from the USG to the Mediterranean, there is still a bit of open space, and the market quotes continue to come in for February. This route after a bit of uncertainty is seeing rates steadying for the balance of open space. On the other hand, bunker prices were higher this week following the rise in energy prices. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
17-Jan-2025
Summary of 2025 Americas Outlook Stories
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030 For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed. OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient. OUTLOOK '25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2. OUTLOOK '25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics. OUTLOOK '25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK '25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply. OUTLOOK '25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates. OUTLOOK '25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule. OUTLOOK '25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures. OUTLOOK '25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US soda ash facing subdued demand US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise. OUTLOOK '25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK '25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases. OUTLOOK '25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route. OUTLOOK '25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications. OUTLOOK '25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports. OUTLOOK '25: US MA facing muted demand expectations US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK '25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. OUTLOOK '25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace. OUTLOOK '25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market. OUTLOOK '25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies. OUTLOOK '25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand. OUTLOOK '25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth. OUTLOOK '25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market. OUTLOOK '25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2 North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.
13-Jan-2025
Summary of 2025 Asia Outlook Stories
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Asia Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. 2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY OUTLOOK '25: Asia naphtha Q1 sentiment upbeat on better demand Asia's naphtha market has rebounded from oversupply and weak demand, with sentiment expected to be lifted higher by gasoline buying interest, refinery maintenance and new cracker startups. OUTLOOK ’25: New C2 capacity in SE Asia may transform landscape While southeast Asian ethylene markets will see – by far – a smaller capacity expansion in 2025 compared to northeast Asia, expansion in the former is already shaping up to be significantly more impactful. INSIGHT: NE Asia C2 oversupply makes for soft landing in 2025 Northeast Asia ethylene markets are facing a wave of new China-led capacities in 2025 that will tip the fundamental scales further into oversupply for the continent. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia, India brace for potentially more ethanolamines from China Participants in southeast Asia and India are bracing for a potential deluge of Chinese cargoes flowing into their markets in the first quarter of 2025. OUTLOOK ‘25: SE Asia PE to see sluggish start to 2025 as slow demand persists The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face a sluggish start to the new year, with strong pricing competition and slow demand likely to guide sentiment. OUTLOOK '25: China PE faces surge in domestic capacity, trade challenges Despite expectations for a mild recovery in China's polyethylene (PE) demand in 2025, supported by the country’s stimulus policies, a supply-demand imbalance is likely to exert pressure on both domestic and foreign PE markets. OUTLOOK ‘25: South Asia PE, PP face supply pressure India’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets are expected to face sustained pressure amid healthy domestic supply. However, strong domestic demand growth is likely to aid market rebalancing to some extent. OUTLOOK '25: Tourism, plant turnarounds, geopolitics to shape Mideast PP/PE markets Weak market demand and an overall bearish sentiment were prevalent in both the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and East Mediterranean (East Med) polymer markets in Q4 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: Demand for premium rPE, rPP cargoes from Asia to gain support from brands Sustainability targets of major brand owners will continue to lend support to the uptake of high-quality recycled polyolefins with certifications, in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Asia C3 poised for sustained capacity expansions, increased spot talks Oversupply has been a running theme for the Asian propylene (C3) market for the past few years, as many C3 plants started up in the post-pandemic period while consumer demand struggled to keep up as economic recovery slowed. OUTLOOK ’25: China propylene market may enter a new cycle on fewer new PDH units expected China’s propylene market will continue to see new units come onstream in 2025, and the market may enter a new phase of structural transformation with the new capacities mainly coming from steam crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply overhang maintains pressure on SE Asia PP market Southeast Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market will continue to see pressure from oversupply, which will lengthen further as new projects in China commence commercial operation. OUTLOOK ’25: China’s PP supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports to continue China's polypropylene (PP) market is expected to become increasingly imbalanced in 2025, driven by continued export growth and a decline in imports. OUTLOOK '25: China BD supply and demand to increase, exports to balance market In 2025, butadiene (BD) capacity in China will expand and supply tightness in the local market is expected to ease compared with 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ACN supply growth to outpace demand, margins under pressure The acrylonitrile (ACN) market is likely to face another challenging year for regional producers with oversupply and competition from China to keep the wider Asia market under pressure. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia BDO remains a buyer’s market amid oversupply The Asia 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market is expected to come under even more pressure, with capacities in China still increasing and demand not keeping up with the expansions. OUTLOOK ’25: China BDO to remain mired in supply glut China's supply surplus in 1,4-butanediol (BDO) is expected to extend into 2025 amid a heavy schedule of new capacities – a situation that is likely to see domestic suppliers press for new solutions. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PBT demand weakness continues, capacities stay idled In 2024, the Asian polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) market saw regional producers facing more competition from China-origin materials due to overcapacity there. OUTLOOK '25: Uneven automotive sector growth weighs on Asia synthetic rubber demand Import demand for various synthetic rubber grades in Asia – from styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR), polybutadiene rubber (PBR) to acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR) – will lean on how recovery and growth of major downstream industries behave. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PX looks to downstream demand growth, gasoline markets The paraxylene (PX) markets in Asia may fare better in 2025 than in 2024 due to capacity expansions in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) sector amid controlled run rates at PX facilities. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MX to face persistent headwinds from lackluster derivatives demand The Asia mixed xylenes (MX) market is likely to see an extension of its existing demand struggles and bearish market sentiment going into 2025, with limited significant fundamental upturn expected in the long run. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia SM market focuses on China exports, contract-spot trade-offs For Asia's styrene monomer (SM) market players, the year 2024 was marked by squeezed margins, slow consumption recovery and a gradually transforming trade landscape. OUTLOOK ’25: China styrene expansion slows, all eyes on trade flows The pace of styrene capacity expansion in China is expected to slow in 2025, with only four units being put into operation including Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals, Shandong Yulong PC, PetroChina Jilin and PetroChina Guangxi. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PS/EPS to see further competition and track SM changes Despite slow global end-consumption recovery for polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS), Asian suppliers’ margins remained at workable levels, with production adjustment and flexible inventory management in second-half 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Asia benzene to begin new year on upbeat note The benzene markets in Asia are expected to rebound in H1 2025 from the traditional slowdown seen in Q4 2024, on the back demand drivers from both the East and the West. OUTLOOK ’25: China benzene to remain tightly balanced, supply growth to lag demand China's benzene market is expected to remain tightly balanced into 2025 on expectations of a rise in both supply and demand, although supply tightness may ease next year compared with 2024. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia toluene market gears up for volatility, demand likely modest Asia toluene markets are bracing for a challenging trading environment, amid anticipated moderate demand in the first half of 2025 and increased supply. OUTLOOK ’25: China toluene seeks export opportunities amid subsiding gasoline demand The average price of China toluene during January-November 2024 fell by around 4% compared to the full-year average in 2023, according to ICIS data. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PET capacity additions to slow; trade flow shift continues Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) new capacity expansions are expected to slow down in 2025, while the global trade flow may shift further with more trade restrictions against Chinese exports. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PTA supply growth to outstrip demand, margins under pressure The purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market is expected to face a challenging year in 2025, with further expansion in supply, while demand is likely unable to catch up with the supply growth. OUTLOOK ’25: China PTA supply glut to increase despite slowing capacity expansion The capacity growth of China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to slow to about 8.3 million tonnes/year in 2025, down from 11.25 million tonnes/year in 2023. The 2024 capacity addition of 7.2 million tonnes/year was also lower than the 2023 level. OUTLOOK ‘25: China MEG market to see limited new capacities, slowing demand growth Planned new China monoethylene glycol (MEG) capacity for 2025 is still relatively limited, and fundamentals may not exert significant pressure, providing some support to the MEG market. OUTLOOK ’25: China DEG supply remains high, cautious outlook for demand Despite a lack of new capacity, domestic diethylene glycol (DEG) output still rose sharply in 2024 driven by improved co-product monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins. OUTLOOK '25: China’s capro self-sufficiency reshapes Asia trade The caprolactam (capro) market in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 saw China achieve self-sufficiency as it shifted its trade status from a net importer to a net exporter. China looks to solidify its position as a key exporter in the region with an additional 600,000 tonnes/year of capro capacity to come online in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: China strengthens position in Asia-Pacific nylon trade The Asia-Pacific nylon market in 2024 saw demand grow largely in the Chinese domestic market due to increased demand for industrial plastics. OUTLOOK ’25: China caps ACN run rates, looks to increase exports The supply of acrylonitrile (ACN) in China's domestic market is expected to increase significantly in 2025, especially because Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (ZRCC) and Sinochem Quanzhou are due to start up new units in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia EDC suppliers to focus on contractual commitments amid suppressed demand Asia's ethylene dichloride (EDC) spot market is expected to remain structurally thin into 2025 due to lackluster downstream performance. OUTLOOK ’25: Mideast PVC trade shifts expected amid India ADDs, China supply growth Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) supply is expected to improve in the coming year with new capacities to the tune of 2 million tonnes slated to come online in China. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia caustic soda demand growth likely to be uneven Asia’s caustic soda spot market holds an optimistic demand outlook for certain markets, but players acknowledge that difficulties remain as market players head into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Producers tweak Asia VAM plants as China supply-demand rebalances Tightening supply is expected to support vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) spot prices in Asia amid differing downstream demand outlooks for China and other major Asia markets. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MMA trade flows shift significantly The winds of change are blowing hard for the methyl methacrylate (MMA) industry in Asia, with market players having witnessed significant shifts in trade flows and price influences in 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: China MMA to face export opportunities amid capacity changes worldwide Global supply and demand growth for methyl methacrylate (MMA) is expected to be roughly balanced in 2025, with capacity growth mainly concentrated in China and the US. OUTLOOK '25: New capacity to weigh on Asia phenol/acetone market Asia’s phenol/acetone to feedstock spread may remain in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive year amid new capacities and a gloomy demand outlook even as the industry undergoes capacity consolidation. OUTLOOK ’25: China phenol to face persistent supply-demand challenges China’s phenol capacity will continue to expand in 2025, but this will meet limited demand increases due to downstream margin pressure. OUTLOOK '25: China's acetone market to see increases in both supply and demand In 2025, both supply and demand for acetone in China are expected to increase, but there are market concerns that issues in some downstream sectors may limit the actual demand growth. OUTLOOK '25: China to dominate growth of Asia EVA supply, demand 2024 marked the year that China shifted to lower imports of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), and 2025 is set to see capacity additions in China increasingly meet demand growth – mainly from the downstream photovoltaics (PV) sector. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PO imports demand likely to weaken further Asia’s propylene oxide (PO) import markets are likely to face further weakening in demand in 2025, with supply in China set to lengthen. OUTLOOK’25: China PO market faces challenge of oversupply China's propylene oxide (PO) capacity is expected to continue to grow in 2025 even as downstream capacity expands. Players largely hold the view oversupply will continue. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia polyols demand outlook mixed but pessimism dominant Demand in the Asian region for slabstock polyether polyols is expected to be flat for the first half of 2025, with the outlook for H2 hazy but largely pessimistic. OUTLOOK '25: Middle East polyols face supply pressures The Middle East polyols markets are expected to remain under pressure in 2025 due to persistent excess supply, relatively weak demand, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. These challenges are compounded by the addition of new polyols and propylene oxide (PO) capacities, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the volatility of upstream feedstock markets. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia isocyanates demand likely hampered, supply lengthy Asian import markets of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diioscyanate (TDI) are set to face lengthy supply in 2025, and the downstream sectors are likely to continue facing headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: Middle East isocyanates face demand, freight challenges In 2024, the isocyanates market in the Middle East experienced significant disruptions in shipping and supply chains due to a prolonged regional conflict. Despite these challenges, imports of polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) increased year on year, while export volumes remained steady. Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) trade volumes were largely stable across both imports and exports. OUTLOOK '25: Asian PC market downturn to persist Asia's polycarbonate (PC) market is expected to remain downbeat in the next quarter as import demand is anticipated to be subdued but supplies will stay persistently high. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia's bisphenol A market faces challenges in 2025 Asia’s bisphenol A (BPA) market will remain hampered by ample supplies and weak demand through the first quarter of 2025 as trade wars impact exports of countries involved in the conflict and further erode consumer confidence. OUTLOOK ’25: China BPA capacity to expand further, export outlets sought New Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) capacities are expected to come into operation in 2025, which may reduce the country’s reliance on imports and help China turn into a major exporter to broader Asia. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s MA demand anticipated to pick up in Q1 on stimulus measures Asia’s maleic anhydride (MA) demand is expected to strengthen in early 2025 on restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. China’s planned economic stimulus measures to boost its domestic economy is likely to lend positive support to MA demand. OUTLOOK ’25: SE Asia to drive phthalic anhydride demand in early 2025 Sellers of lower priced Chinese origin phthalic anhydride (PA) material are expected to focus on southeast Asia post Lunar New Year, where demand is expected to remain firm in the first quarter of 2025. OUTLOOK '25: China plasticizers demand to remain subdued amid ample domestic supplyChina's import market for plasticizers will likely continue to see thin trade in 2025, as demand for imports has steadily dwindled amid ample domestic supplies. OUTLOOK ’25: China 2-EH to face supply-demand headwinds in Q1 China's 2-ethyl hexanol (2-EH) market will face a challenging year in 2025, particularly in the first quarter, as a result of more ample supply and uncertainty in downstream demand. OUTLOOK '25: Asia to become net MIBK exporter in new year An excess methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) capacity emerging in Asia has dampened spot prices in the region and widened the arbitrage for trade across the Atlantic heading into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to balloon on capacity expansion Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip demand on the back of China’s significant capacity growth into 2025, prompting producers to review regional plant run rates and supply contracts. OUTLOOK ‘25: China acetic acid to rely on cost support amid supply growth While China’s acetic acid market experienced fluctuations in 2024 , the mismatch in the growth of upstream and downstream capacities allowed acetic acid suppliers to maintain relatively healthy margins for most of the time. OUTLOOK ’25: China acrylic acid supply to rise, exports and run rates monitored China’s acrylic acid market is expected to see increasing supply in 2025 due to start-ups of new plants, and participants may turn their attention to the export market in the face of weak growth potential in domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: China NBA supply to remain limited, demand to pick up in Q1 China’s domestic n-butanol (NBA) supply may remain tight in the first quarter of 2025, due to no unit start-up plans, multiple scheduled maintenance outages and low import volumes, while the launch of new downstream capacities may boost demand. OUTLOOK ’25: Lack of demand outlets may limit growth for Asia adipic acid Asia’s adipic acid markets have been through a tough 2024 on both demand and supply fronts. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia LAB remains stagnant, continues to underperform mid-cut fatty alcohols The Asia linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market remained mostly flat in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the malaise in the market looks set to continue into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on upbeat note The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia are expected to start the new year on an upbeat note after festivity-driven trades, amid caution about possible tariffs on exports to the US. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia melamine demand could gain momentum, H2 '25 capacity additions monitored Asia’s melamine market could see some support in early 2025 from improving demand in China’s export market as buyers replenish inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year at end-January. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia IPA margin pressure to persist amid new capacity Isopropanol (IPA) makers in Asia are bracing for a challenging start to 2025 as production margins remain poor and upcoming new capacity in China could disrupt market balance. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia MEK tight supply may ease; cost pressure to persist Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets gleaned support from tightened China supply in H2 December. OUTLOOK '25: Asia glycol ethers face demand headwinds, BG may tighten in Q2 The butyl glycol (BG) markets in Asia could see ample supply against a backdrop of tepid demand in Q1 2025, but supply could tighten in Q2. OUTLOOK '25: Asia ECH, LER oversupply to endure, ADD investigations to shape trade flows Asia's epichlorohydrin (ECH) and liquid epoxy resins (LER) markets will continue to grapple with regional oversupply, while antidumping duty (ADD) investigations of Asian LER makers in the US and Europe will shape trade flows. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia fatty acids demand to remain tepid in Q1 on upstream oil palm volatility Asia’s fatty acids demand for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be tepid, due to volatility in the upstream oil palm complex and weak consumer confidence. OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts in Q1 Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts in Asia are expected to tussle over the market’s trajectory in the first quarter of 2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia glycerine Q1 supply may rise on Indonesia mandate Asia’s glycerine supply may increase in the first quarter of 2025 as Indonesia is poised to increase its biodiesel mandate to B40 in January 2025, up from B35 in 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Asia soap noodles demand tepid in Q1 on upstream volatility Asia’s soap noodles demand is likely to remain tepid in the first quarter of 2025 amid expected continued volatility in upstream crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO) markets. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia FAE demand to remain tepid in Q1 amid squeezed margins Asia’s demand for fatty alcohol ethoxylates (FAE) is likely to remain stable in the first quarter of 2025, but spot offers may be revised up due to squeezed margins. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia Group II/III base oils supply to rise, demand to improve from March An increase in the supply of Asia Group II base oils is expected to gain traction from around mid-2025, with supply of heavy grade 500/600N likely to remain relatively tighter than that of light grade 150N. OUTLOOK '25: Asia Group I base oils to navigate supply tightness Entering into 2025, structural supply tightness of Group I base oils will remain the key market driver. Where substitution is more likely, such as for SN150 and SN500, price dynamics will also depend on supply length for Group II 150N and 500N. On the other hand, brightstock availability will be a challenge amid supply disruptions in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: China base oils demand unlikely to rebound sharply; imports to fall further Overall demand for base oils in China is unlikely to improve significantly in 2025, because the domestic economy will still face challenges. Base oils imports have been in a downtrend since 2020, and the market share of domestically produced cargoes has been continuously rising, which will extend into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Asia's oxo-alcohols market braces for oversupply, squeezed margins Asia's oxo-alcohols spot markets are poised for a rocky year ahead due to oversupply and weak derivative margins, while a large buy-sell gap between Chinese buyers and Asian exporters will likely lead to more merchant volumes. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia AA, acrylates to see increased competition, slow demand growth The Asia glacial acrylic acid (AA) and acrylates market is going to see capacity expanding at a faster pace in 2025 than the expected demand growth in Asia. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia etac, butac demand skewed towards conservative in H1 2025 Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) markets are bracing for a challenging demand landscape over the first half of 2025, factoring in supply length and macroeconomic concerns. OUTLOOK '25: Asia chemical freight unlikely to stir in Q1 2025 The chemical tanker market in Asia is expected to soften into Q1 2025, with lackluster demand persisting amid a likely warmer winter in the northern hemisphere. OUTLOOK '25: Asia methanol demand still uncertain amid new capacities The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to be uncertain, with factors such as additional capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming downstream demand expected to play a role in this. OUTLOOK ’25: China’s methanol demand growth may outpace supply increase amid slowing expansion China’s methanol market may remain balanced to tight in the first half of 2025, as supply increase may fall behind demand growth, but domestic and overseas supply are expected to sustain modest growth. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MTBE demand to depend on gasoline, China’s oversupply remains The outlook for Asian methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) remains uncertain, with factors such as added supply in China, volatility in crude prices and demand for gasoline expected to impact market movements in the coming months. OUTLOOK ’25: China MTBE supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports remain key More capacity expansions and a lack of growth in gasoline blending amid sluggish domestic gasoline demand will keep methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) producers in China under heavy pressure to maintain domestic sales in 2025, with exports still their main area for growth momentum. OUTLOOK ‘25: China titanium dioxide makers poised for challenges ahead Players in Asia’s spot titanium dioxide (TiO2) market are set to start the new year with two big questions.
13-Jan-2025
INSIGHT: Mitsubishi cancels ethylene-based US MMA project amid global glut
HOUSTON (ICIS)–A surge in new methyl methacrylate (MMA) capacity in China will keep utilization rates depressed during the next few years, even with the recent decision by Mitsubishi Chemical to cancel its proposed project in the US. Mitsubishi said it cancelled its proposed MMA plant because it could not secure enough long-term commitments from customers. The US plant would have been the third featuring Mitsubishi's Alpha process technology, which uses ethylene, methanol and carbon monoxide (CO) as feedstock. Even after Roehm starts up its own ethylene-based MMA plant in the US, the country will have less MMA capacity than at the start of the decade. FLOOD OF MMA IN CHINASince 2020, Chinese MMA capacity has expanded rapidly. By 2028, ICIS expects it will grow by 67% from 2020, adding an extra 1.77 million tonnes/year of capacity. That added capacity exceeds that of North American and Europe combined. Most of the new capacity in China relies on the acetone cyanohydrin route, although some of the other new plants use the isobutylene path. There is even a sprinkling of ethylene-based plants. The following chart shows the growth of MMA capacity in China. Figures are in thousands of tonnes/year. Source: ICIS MMA capacity has grown faster than demand, and the excess is showing up in depressed operating rates. Global MMA utilization rates fell to 61% in 2023, and they will remain in the low 60s through 2028, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. From 2010-2019, global MMA utilization rates never fell below 75%. ROEHM GETS EARLY START ON US MMA PLANTRoehm is also developing a US MMA plant that will be based on its ethylene technology. The plans from Roehm and Mitsubishi were revealed by ICIS in 2019, and their new plants were intended to replace older ones that relied on acetone. The following table compares the capacities of the new plants with the ones that would be shut down. Figures are in tonnes/year. NEW PLANT OLD PLANT Roehm 250,000 160,000 Mitsubishi 350,000 155,000 Source: ICIS While Mitsubishi continued evaluating its project, Roehm proceeded with construction and broke ground in October 2022. Roehm should start up its new plant this quarter. Had Mitsubishi and Roehm both proceeded with their plants, the US would have a surplus of MMA, an unappealing prospect in a market with such a large glut of material. Mitsubishi has closed three plants globally since 2020, and all used the acetone cyanohydrin route. Their 155,000 tonne Beaumont, Texas plant shut in 2021, followed by the 200,000 tonne site in Billingham, UK at the end of 2022 and 110,000 tonnes of capacity in Otake, Japan in 2024. EXPORTING IN AN OVERSUPPLIED MARKETThe outlook for MMA demand will make it more difficult for the market to grow out of its glut. MMA is used in paints, coatings, adhesives and durable goods like displays and automobiles. These applications are sensitive to higher interest and mortgage rates. Consumers tend to buy new appliances when they move. Because mortgage rates are high, fewer people are buying homes and purchasing durable goods made of MMA. Until rates decline and US housing markets recover, many of the major end markets for MMA will remain depressed. Mitsubishi described future demand growth as stable, which is hardly justification for investing in a world-scale plant. Mitsubishi expects to meet immediate MMA demand with its existing plants. ELEVATED CONSTRUCTION COSTSThe Mitsubishi project did have one thing going for it. The plant would have relied on ethylene and methanol as feedstock, and the US holds cost advantages for both feedstocks. The plant's feedstock advantage could give it an edge in an oversupplied market that predominantly relies on acetone as a feedstock. The problem is that the US feedstock advantage is becoming offset by rising costs for material and labor. Chemical plants are competing for parts, labor and materials with a growing number of other industrial and infrastructure projects. In 2023, several US projects faced large cost overruns. Companies building a polyester plant and a sulfuric acid plant put their projects on hold. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows objects made out of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), which is made from MMA. Image by Shutterstock.
09-Jan-2025
Americas top stories: weekly summary
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 3 January. OUTLOOK '25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK '25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. SHIPPING: Union dockworkers, ports to resume negotiations ahead of 15 Jan deadline Union dockworkers and representatives for US Gulf and East Coast ports are expected to resume negotiations on a new master contract on 7 January, just more than a week ahead of the 15 January deadline. OUTLOOK '25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market.
06-Jan-2025
Asia top stories – weekly summary
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 3 January. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to balloon on capacity expansion By Hwee Hwee Tan 30-Dec-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip demand on the back of China’s significant capacity growth into 2025, prompting producers to review regional plant run rates and supply contracts. OUTLOOK '25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on upbeat note By Angeline Soh 31-Dec-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia are expected to start the new year on an upbeat note after festivity-driven trades, amid caution about possible tariffs on exports to the US. OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts in Q1 By Helen Yan 02-Jan-25 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts in Asia are expected to tussle over the market’s trajectory in the first quarter of 2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices. Singapore Q4 economy grows 4.3%; whole-year GDP rises 4.0% By Jonathan Yee 02-Jan-25 11:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s GDP rose 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, supported by an increase in public sector construction output, official advance estimates showed on Thursday. S Korea GDP forecast cut amid political uncertainty, trade headwinds By Nurluqman Suratman 02-Jan-25 14:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s finance ministry on 2 January slashed the country’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from a previous projection of 2.6% amid growing domestic demand and trade uncertainties. OUTLOOK '25: Asia methanol demand still uncertain amid new capacities By Damini Dabholkar 03-Jan-25 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to be uncertain, with factors such as additional capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming downstream demand expected to play a role in this.
06-Jan-2025
Study on Oman’s Duqm petrochemical complex to be completed in 2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A feasibility study for a joint venture petrochemical complex in the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Oman will be completed in 2025, an official from Oman’s national oil and gas company OQ told ICIS. The proposed project is a joint venture between OQ, Saudi Arabia’s SABIC and Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI). “We are trying to maximize the value of hydrocarbons in Oman,” OQ’s vice president for business development Sultan Al Burtamani said in an interview with ICIS. “We are studying this project together with our other partners, and hopefully in the coming months we'll get clarity on how we will be moving the project to the next stage,” Al Burtamani said. The OQ8 Duqm refinery, which became operational in 2024 and cost $9 billion to build, has a capacity of 230,000 barrels per day. The Duqm Petrochemical Complex, when built, will be located close to the Duqm Refinery, which is operated by OQ8, which is an existing joint venture between OQ and KPI. The project will draw feedstock primarily from the refinery. Oman, as with other Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is looking to diversify away from oil and gas production, which accounts for over half of the nation’s GDP. "We are studying what could make a commercial competitiveness for us in the petrochemical space, [perhaps] related to the cracker business, that we are thinking of expanding,” Al Burtamani said. “We are trying to develop Duqm as another industrial hub, which is what we did in (the port cities of) Sohar, Sur, and Salalah (in Dhofar).” Al Burtamani added that Duqm is an attractive location as it has direct access to the Indian Ocean. Duqm is in the southeast Al Wusta Governorate of Oman and is in the path of international shipping lines in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. At the recently concluded Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) Forum in Muscat, Oman, OQ chairman Mulham Basheer Al Jarf said that a privatization program for the state-run company, which includes the listing of its chemicals arm OQ Base Industries (OQBI), forms part of Oman’s 2040 Vision plan to diversify its economy. OQBI launched an initial public offering (IPO) on 24 November, with 49% of the total shared capital of the company offered at 111 baizas per share or a total of Omani rial (OR) 384 million ($1 billion). The company started trading on the Muscat Stock Exchange on 15 December. OQBI produces methanol, ammonia, propane, butane, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in a facility in Salalah. Interview article by Jonathan Yee ($1 = OR0.384829)
16-Dec-2024
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates fall, but average global rates rise as possible port strike nears
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US were flat to softer this week while global average rates rose by 6%, but the looming strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports could put upward pressure on rates in the coming week. Rates from supply chain advisors Drewry showed Shanghai-New York rates fell slightly to $5,160 from $5,182, while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles plunged by more than 12%, as shown in the following chart. The previous chart also shows the sharp increases in rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa, which contributed to the global average increase as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects an increase in rates on the Transpacific trade in the coming week due to the looming ILA (International Longshoremen’s Association) port strike in January 2025 and the anticipated rush to ship goods before the strike begins. The 15 January deadline for finalizing a new labor agreement between unionized dock workers at US Gulf and East Coast ports and the negotiating entity for the ports is nearing with no clear progress on a key remaining issue – automation. Rates at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed a sharp increase on the Asia-NY trade lane and a 4% decrease from Asia-LA. Rates at Freightos are higher than rates at Drewry. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said the increases on Asia-NY are because of importers again frontloading shipments ahead of a possible strike and to beat tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration. Some carriers have already begun introducing general rate increases (GRIs) to try and push rates higher. Levine said the window to move shipments from the East Coast to the West Coast ahead of a possible strike is closing, but many retailers are sitting on significant inventories from pulling forward shipments ahead of the original 1 October strike deadline. “These factors may make early December rate increases difficult to sustain, though prices could increase later in the month or early in January ahead of Lunar New Year,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES Overall, the US chemical tanker freight rates were unchanged this week for several trade lanes, except for the USG-Asia trade lane as spot tonnage remains tight. This all-basis limited spot activity to most regions and as COA nominations are taking longer than usual for the regular vessel owners. They have tried to delay the sailings but there has been very little spot space in the market leaving no other options for full cargoes and in turn impacting spot rates. MEG, ethanol and styrene still are being seen quoted in the market from various traders, for early January loadings to Asia. Eastbound space had not yet been fully absorbed despite the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from USG bound for Antwerp, most owners waiting for full contract nominations. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. PANAMA CANAL Fiscal Year 2024 revenue rose from 2023, the Panama Canal Authority said this week even after having to reduce crossings for part of the year because of a severe drought. The Authority said a noticeable impact from the drought was a decrease in deep draft transits, which fell by 21%. Despite the arrival of the rainy season, the challenge of water for Panama and the Panama Canal remains and serves as a reminder that climate change and its effects are a reality requiring immediate attention and concrete action. Potential solutions include the identification of alternative sources of water from the 51 watersheds and lakes in Panama, along with projects that can increase storage capacity to ensure water availability for the entire Panamanian population and the Canal’s operation, thereby ensuring its long-term sustainability. At the same time, the Panama Canal is exploring additional short- and long-term solutions that can optimize the use and storage of water at the Canal for the benefit of both the local population and its operations. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock
06-Dec-2024
SHIPPING: Asia-USWC container rates fall; Asia-USEC rates hold steady
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average container rates ticked lower last week, along with rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast, but rates from Asia-New York held steady during what is typically the slow season for transpacific ocean freight. Shipping analysts said rates remain elevated for several reasons, most significantly the frontloading of imports ahead of possible renewed labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports. The possible implementation of new tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration is also keeping upward pressure on rates. Global average rates fell by 2% for the week ended 29 November, as shown in the following chart from supply chain advisors Drewry. The following chart from Drewry shows the rates from Asia to both US coasts. Drewry expects spot rates to be relatively stable this week. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said inland truck and rail rates could also face upward pressure as tariffs aimed specifically at Canada and Mexico could lead to increased cross-border volumes. Levine said congestion remains minimal at US ports, including the main West Coast port of Los Angeles/Long Beach. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said container ship traffic through the port continues to be steady with 67 container ships enroute and 12 scheduled to arrive in the next three days. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID RATES STEADY Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane, as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Colombia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting contract of affreightment (COA) nominations. The USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh enquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
02-Dec-2024
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 29 November. Europe methanol supply shortages worsen for December, prices at 2022 highs Europe's methanol market is expected to tighten further as production outages in US and Europe apply pressure on supply. India’s Adani Group access to foreign capital at risk amid US bribery charges India’s Adani Group may run into difficulty accessing external funding and may see an increase in its capital costs as global rating agencies have downgraded the outlook for several of the group’s companies, citing escalating legal and governance risks. Soda ash annual contract talks progress as players prepare for another challenging year Soda ash demand in November is overall stable in Europe, but the lack of any pick-up has prompted some furnace closures at glass manufacturers, although some plants that were shut last year may restart next year. Deloitte expects more chem M&A as industry remains in flux The chemical industry is entering the new year amid an especially large amount of flux, with China receding as a demand driver, Europe contending with plant shutdowns and producers rearranging businesses through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Europe PE/PP spot prices stable to soft as year ends with a limp Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) spot prices were stable to lower in the week to 22 November, with limited business done.
02-Dec-2024
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