Methanol

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US were largely stable this week but exporters are being urged to book outgoing shipments 4-6 weeks in advance as labor issues between union dock workers and US Gulf and East Coast ports stalled. For US companies working to export excess volumes to balance year-end inventories, those shipments need to be going out this week. For importers, rates from Asia to the US West Coast fell by 2% and are down by almost 3% over the past two weeks, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. The chart also shows rates from Asia to New York were largely stable, down by 0.20% and by 0.36% over the past two weeks. Global average rates held steady at around $3,440/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), as shown in the following chart. With the breakdown in negotiations between the US Maritime Alliance (USMX), representing the ports, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and with the expectation of significant tariff increases under the administration of President-elect Donald Trump, analysts expect a surge of imports over the last few weeks of the year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has revised its forecast for the rest of the year on the developments. Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but the NRF/Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units), up 3.7% year on year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year on year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. CANADA PORT LABOR ISSUES The Port of Montreal will resume operations on Saturday, 16 November, at 07:00 local time, following labor disruptions that started on 31 October and a subsequent lockout of about 1,200 dock workers. The Port of Vancouver and other Canadian west coast ports resumed operations on Thursday after a strike and lockout of about 730 foremen who supervise more than 7,000 dock workers that began on 4 November. The Port of Vancouver is Canada’s largest port by far. More than Canadian dollar (C$) 22 million ($15.7 million) of chemistry and plastic products was traded through Vancouver and other west coast ports each day in 2023, for a total of C$8 billion for the year, according to the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC). LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES STABLE US chemical tanker spot rates were overall steady this week for most trade lanes, while vessel demand continues to remain soft for various routes. One exception is rates from the USG to the Mediterranean, which surged as interest to this region remains steady. There was an uptick on cargoes from various regions to Montreal as shippers work to deliver and pick up material before the ice season closes for winter transit and soon will require ice class vessels. The US Gulf to ARA remains soft and solid for contractual cargoes and as CPP tonnage continues to participate in the chemical sector. If it persists it could continue to pressure to the market even further. Similarly, that situation exists for volumes on the USG to the Caribbean and South America trade lanes. From the USG to these regions, space among regular carriers remains available, due to a lack of interest. However, for the USG to Asia spot volumes continue to be weak as there seems to be plenty of prompt space available. Mainly parcels of monoethylene glycols (MEG), ethanol and methanol to this region seems to have provided any support to the weak market. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market in various directions. Bunker prices remain stable mainly due to the continued the volatility in energy prices week on week. PANAMA CANAL MAINTENANCE The West Lane of Miraflores Locks will be out of service due to concrete maintenance on the West Southend approach wall for about 48 hours from early on 23 November until late on 24 November, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). The number of slots available to super and regular vessels will be reduced because of the maintenance. Once the maintenance is complete, the 20 slots for supers and the six slots for regular vessels will be reinstated for booking dates beginning 25 November, the PCA said. As of September, the PCA has 36 slots per day after limiting transits late in 2023 because of a severe drought in the region. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Stefan Baumgarten

15-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shipping container rates from east Asia and China to the US West Coast rose this week, reversing a trend that saw rates fall by almost 36% from July, as late-season holiday demand emerged. Many importers had pulled holiday volumes early to avoid any problems related to a US East Coast dock workers strike that was set to begin on 1 October. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said front-loading of volumes to the East Coast in September may have been stronger than to the West Coast due to the rush to beat the 1 October strike deadline. Supply chain advisors Drewry has Shanghai-USWC rates edging higher by less than 1% and said of the increase in spot rates ex-China that it expects this trend to continue as the Christmas rush intensifies. Drewry’s World Container Index showed average global rates rising, as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to Europe rose more dramatically than those from Shanghai to the US, as shown in the following chart from Drewry. Levine said the stronger front loading of volumes to the East Coast could explain the sharper drop of East Coast rates over the last few weeks, as well as the anomaly that saw East Coast rates fall below West Coast rates. Rates to the East Coast are typically about $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) higher than to the West Coast. Drewry still has East Coast rates about $400/FEU higher than West Coast rates. Levine noted that rates to both coasts are still $1,000-1,500/FEU above their April lows. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. EAST COAST LABOR UPDATE Union dock workers and US East Coast port operators will resume negotiations on a new master agreement in November, according to a joint statement from both parties. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents the ports, reached a tentative agreement on 3 October that ended a three-day strike. The strike was paused until 15 January after parties agreed on the salary portion of the agreement, essentially meeting in the middle. Levine said port automation remains the major sticking point, and if there is no progress in the coming weeks anxious shippers may start increasing orders again ahead of another possible strike. CANADA WEST COAST PORT LABOR UNREST The British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA), which represents ports on Canada’s west coast, has issued formal notice of its intention to lock out port workers coastwide, starting Monday, 4 November at 8:00 local time, it said on Friday. On Canada’s east coast, dock workers at the Port of Montreal on Thursday, 31 October, went on an indefinite strike at two of the port’s four container terminals. The labor dispute is about automation at Dubai Ports World (Canada), as well as retirement benefits. The parties have been negotiating a new collective labor deal since the last one expired in March 2023. LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES STABLE US chemical tanker freight rates were largely unchanged this week for most trade lanes, while vessel demand continues to be soft for various routes. The USG to ARA remains soft and solid for contractual cargoes and any additional available CPP tonnage could continue to pressure the market even further. Similarly, that situation exists for volumes on the USG to the Caribbean and South America trade lanes. From the USG to these regions, space among regular carriers remains available, due to a lack of interest. However, for the USG to Asia spot volumes continues to be weak as there seems to be plenty of prompt space available.  Mainly parcels of methanol to China seems to have provided any support to the weak market. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market in various directions. With additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten and Kevin Callahan Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

01-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 25 October. Asia's naphtha market eyes demand uptick By Li Peng Seng 21-Oct-24 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's naphtha intermonth spread was near a two-month high recently and it may be able to hold firm in the near term on reduced arbitrage volumes in November and anticipated demand growth ahead. Energy transition plan reset needed with renewed focus on Asia – Aramco President By Jonathan Yee 21-Oct-24 14:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser on Monday called for a new energy transition plan that considers the needs of all countries, specifically those in Asia and the broader Global South, amid growing oil demand. Asia ACN regional producers bullish on tighter supply; India’s BIS deadline nears By Corey Chew 22-Oct-24 11:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia acrylonitrile (ACN) prices saw a recent uptrend the past two weeks, with plants of key regional producers in Taiwan and South Korea under planned maintenance. PODCAST: Macroeconomic pressure continues to weigh on Asia recycling sentiment By Damini Dabholkar 22-Oct-24 17:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The short-term demand outlook for recycled polymers from Asia remains sluggish especially for low-value grades, mainly due to poor economics and brand users’ preference of cheaper virgin plastics. Emerging Asian economies’ strong growth to subside amid China slowdown – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Oct-24 12:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Emerging Asian economies are expected to see strong economic growth subside, partly due to a sustained slowdown in China, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. PODCAST: Asia methanol impacted by geopolitical uncertainty, supply cuts expected in Q4 By Damini Dabholkar 24-Oct-24 23:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian methanol markets in recent weeks were driven more by sentiment than changes in fundamentals as participants respond to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, some supply changes in coming months are expected to alter the landscape in Q1 2025. Supply glut casts shadow over Asia PC market recovery By Li Peng Seng 25-Oct-24 13:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's polycarbonates (PC) spot demand has remained sluggish as ample supplies have kept purchases on a need-to basis, and this trend will persist through yearend.

28-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US fell this week, but carriers have announced an increase in blank sailings so they can tighten capacity and maintain a floor on prices. Rates have been falling steadily since July as importers pulled forward peak season volumes to get ahead of the dock workers strike at East Coast and US Gulf ports. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said some carriers added blank sailings on Asia-to-US routes. Last week, Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) announced four blank sailings on its Asia-USEC 2M service, citing ongoing congestion at some ports related to the brief work stoppage. Levine said the action could also be to maintain a floor on rates. Global average rates fell by 4% and are just above $3,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates to the East Coast fell by 6.1% to around $5,200/FEU, with rates to the West Coast falling by 2.6% to around $4,800/FEU, as shown in the following chart. Transpacific rates are now about 30% below the July peak, and Levine expects them to continue to soften as the market is in a slow period between the end of the Christmas holiday peak season and the Lunar New Year. “As long as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity on an industry level, prices may not fall much further than seen back in April,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES FLAT TO LOWER Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were softer this week for several trade lanes, in particular the USG-to-Brazil and USG-Asia trade lanes as spot tonnage remains readily available. There has been limited spot activity to both regions and COA nominations are taking longer than usual. The vessel owners have tried to delay the sailings but there has been very little spot interest in the market leaving no other options for full cargoes and in turn impacting spot rates. On the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was ample space available, which readily absorbed the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Med as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

25-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian methanol markets in recent weeks were driven more by sentiment than changes in fundamentals as participants respond to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, some supply changes in coming months are expected to alter the landscape in Q1 2025. Gas shortages in Q4 lead to expectations of lower supply China market sees correction after post-holiday exuberance Downstream demand tepid, expected to see slight recovery in Q4 In this chemical podcast, ICIS markets editor Damini Dabholkar and senior analyst Ann Sun discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

24-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Denmark's AP Moller Holding, the parent company of shipping company Maersk, plans to invest €1.5 billion to build a “fossil-free” plastics production plant in Antwerp, Belgium, via a new venture called Vioneo. “The Antwerp plant will benefit from the region’s expertise in the chemicals industry, strong export facilities and access to renewable energy,” AP Moller said in a statement on 30 September. The Vioneo plant is expected to use green methanol as feedstock to produce polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), with commercial operations slated to begin in 2028, the investment company said. “Fully operational, the plant will be able to produce … 300,000 tonnes of fossil-free plastics annually, corresponding to a reduction of 1.5 million tons of CO2 [carbon dioxide] emissions,” it said. The plant will be located within the Antwerp energy park of Dutch logistics firm Vopak, with support from Vopak Belgium and the Port of Antwerp-Bruges. Project plans will take place in phases, with front-end engineering design (FEED) to begin in Q4 2024, and with the final investment decision (FID) expected in 2025. In a separate statement, the Port of Antwerp-Bruges said that the project is expected to generate "significant job opportunities” during the construction phase and around 250 permanent positions when the plant is fully operational. ($1 = €0.90)

01-Oct-2024

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Celanese sees a major growth opportunity in low carbon, recycled and bio-based materials, its CEO said. In January 2024, the company announced it started running a carbon capture and utilization (CCU) project at its Clear Lake, Texas, site as part of its Fairway Methanol joint venture with Mitsui & Co. The project is expected to capture 180,000 tonnes/year of CO2 industrial emissions and produce 130,000 tonnes/year of low-carbon methanol. “We actively capture carbon off some of the major producers in Clear Lake, Texas, at our site and we take those CO2 emissions… and we recycle it back into the ATR (autothermal reformer),” said Lori Ryerkerk, CEO of Celanese, on a webinar hosted by Chemical Marketing & Economics (CME-STEM). This low-carbon methanol can then be used to produce vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), vinyl acetate ethylene (VAE) emulsions and other downstream products, she added. “We have customers like Amazon that want a lower carbon footprint product, and we are able to meet that customer need,” said Ryerkerk. The CCU unit takes CO2 emissions that were otherwise being vented into the atmosphere from both Celanese and from third parties to use as a feedstock. “The exciting thing about this project is that we started it as a way to make more methanol and have found the value is also there for being able to produce through mass balance tracking, a green product that can be certified under the ISCC carbon footprint certification system,” said Ryerkerk. In March 2024, Celanese announced that the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) group certified its Low Carbon CCU Methanol under the ISCC Carbon Footprint Certification (CFC) system. Low Carbon CCU Methanol demonstrated a greater than 70% reduction in carbon footprint relative to a global average benchmark for fossil-based methanol production, as included in EU legislation, according to Celanese. “This is an area of growth for us – to be able to expand our green product offering,” said Ryerkerk. In Celanese’s Sustainable Solutions portfolio, those using carbon capture fall under the ECO-C label, with recycled content under ECO-R and bio-based content under ECO-B. RECYCLED AND RECYCLABLE CONTENTOn the recycled content side, Celanese in Europe recycles nylon airbags into high quality nylon which can be used by customers such as furniture giant IKEA, said Ryerkerk. IKEA has a goal of using only recycled or renewable-based plastic in all its products by 2030. “In India, we take fishing nets that are recovered from the sea, clean them, sort them and recycle them into a nylon grade which is used for furniture,” said Ryerkerk. “We have the ability to make recycled [products] across much of our portfolio now,” she added. Celanese also works with customers to develop products that are recyclable. An example is its NEOLAST fiber made from thermoplastic copolyester elastomer which can be blended with other fibers at a level anywhere from 2-40% of total fiber content. “We developed this fiber together with Under Armour to solve a problem they had with elastane (Spandex) because Spandex is energy intensive, uses solvents that aren’t very environmentally friendly, and tends to shed a lot of plastic fibers,” said Ryerkerk. “The great news is that this is recyclable. Elastanes are not. It’s solvent-free so more environmentally friendly from a production standpoint and it has better characteristics of wear – it’s more colorfast, better wicking, all these things,” she added. NEOLAST is in the very early stages of sales with Under Armour producing some products with the fiber and Celanese talking to a number of other companies interested in using it, the CEO said. “This is a long-term commitment. This has been in development for many, many years. We’ve just introduced it, and it will probably be several years yet before we really see widespread use of it,” said Ryerkerk, who noted that most of these types of new products take three to five years to develop. BIO-BASED CONTENTOther customers such as toy producer LEGO aim to use more renewable-based content. “We are able, since we start with bio-methanol and bio-ethylene – these building block chemicals – to make a bio-content material which we call ECO-B for those customers [that want to use] a non-fossil fuel feedstock,” said Ryerkerk. In H1 2024, 30% of the resin LEGO purchased was certified according to mass balance principles, which translated into an estimated average of 22% renewable sources. The company plans to “significantly increase this percentage” through the rest of 2024 and beyond. Celanese considers its ability to offer low carbon, recycled and bio-based products a unique competitive advantage. “Many of our competitors may offer one of these, but we’re probably one of the few that have the ability right now to offer all of them – and offer them in a way that is certified,” said Ryerkerk. GROWTH PROSPECTSCelanese’s Sustainable Solutions portfolio represents just around 5% of sales today but is growing double digits on a percentage basis every year, said the CEO. A stronger economic recovery would be a tailwind as these products are typically more expensive. “We’ll see what happens with the economy. Let’s be honest – most people are more interested in these things when the economy is better than when the economy is tough like it is right now,” said Ryerkerk. “But there are a lot of companies that have made commitments to go to more sustainable solutions. As our volumes grow, we’re able to make sustainable solutions more affordable for them… I think it is going to be quite some time before it is the majority of our portfolio, but that’s OK because we need time to build our capabilities as well,” she added. Focus article by Joseph Chang

27-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets surged on Tuesday following announcement of fresh measures to rev up activity in the world’s second-biggest economy. As the close of trade on Tuesday, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) was leading the charge in China’s domestic futures market, with a 3.3% increase, with seven others also posting strong gains. Product Prices at close of trade (CNY/tonne) % change from 23 Sept Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)                                   7,969 1.2% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)                                   5,388 3.3% Ethylene glycol (EG)                                   4,459 1.9% Polypropylene (PP)                                   7,360 1.4% Styrene monomer (SM)                                   8,559 0.7% Paraxylene *                                   7,012 2.4% Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)*                                   4,930 2.2% Methanol*                                   2,396 1.6% Sources: Dalian Commodity Exchange, *Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Shares of major Chinese chemical producers traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses also increased, welcoming the central bank’s economic measures. Company  Closing prices on 24 September (CNY/share) % change from 23 Sept Hengli Petrochemical 13.12 5.4% PetroChina 8.36 4.4% Rongsheng* Petrochemical 8.84 4.1% Satellite Chemical* 16.08 7.7% Sinopec 6.76 4.3% Wanhua Chemical 78.96 4.4% Sources: Shanghai and *Shenzhen bourses The Shanghai composite index surged by 4.15% to close at 2,863 on Tuesday. It was the index’s biggest single-day rally since 6 July 2020. People’s Bank of China (PBoC) governor Pan Gongsheng announced in a press conference the new economic measures, which include cuts on banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), key policy rate and mortgage rates to revive the economy. China's economic weakness has been a major drag on overall sentiment across the equities and commodities markets this year. “The move [basket of stimulus by China’s central bank] is bold by historical standards and came earlier than we had expected,” said Betty Wang, lead economist at UK-based Oxford Economics, in a research note on Tuesday. “The policy measures include cuts to the policy rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR), adjustment to mortgage lending and policy support to stock market,” Wang said. “The continuous weakness in domestic economy and the outsized rate cut from the [US] Federal Reserve were the likely catalysts behind the PBoC's latest move,” the economist said. This is the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic that the central bank offered a combination of rate cuts, RRR cuts, and structural monetary policies as stimulus measures. A 20-basis point (bps) interest rate cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase (repo) rate and a broad-based 50bps RRR cut are also rare, Oxford Economics noted. Focus article by Fanny Zhang ($1 = CNY7.04) Thumbnail image: At a container terminal at Lianyungang Port in east China's Jiangsu Province, 18 September 2024. (Shutterstock)

24-Sep-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Brazilian government’s committee on foreign trade Gecex-Camex approved late on Wednesday an increase in import taxes on more than 80 chemical and fertilizers products, with the new rate up to 20% for most materials. Among some of the products affected are widely used chemicals such polypropylene (PP), polyethylene, (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). See bottom list for details. Previous rates stood between 7.6% and 12.6%. The new rates will apply from October and are valid for one year. The decision is yet to be approved by Mercosur, the trading common area formed by Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, as well as Brazil, which is the dominant economy in Mercosur. The cabinet, thus, gave in partly to the pressure by chemical producers in Brazil. Earlier this year, individual companies as well as the trade group representing producers, Abiquim, had proposed to increase tariffs in more than 100 chemicals. The decision was widely anticipated by analysts, and it is expected to immediately prop up earnings for some of Brazil’s largest producers such polymers major Braskem or chlor-alkali major Unipar. Brazil has been the recipient of large amounts of imports from Asia and, to a lesser extent, the US which have greatly dented domestic producers’ market share. Sectors that opposed increasing tariffs, including plastic transformers represented by Abiplast, expressed their disappointment after Wednesday’s measure by Gecex-Camex. “[The decision was taken even though] Abiplast and other trade groups have exhaustively demonstrated to the government the harmful impacts of increases in import tariffs on raw materials,” said Jose Ricardo Roriz Coelho, president of Abiplast, in a letter to the trade group’s members seen by ICIS. “We will continue to fight to ensure that these unreasonable measures are reversed.” Product Current Tax Rate Proposed Tax Rate Plaintiff Phosphoric acid with iron content less than 750 ppm 9% 17.5% Abiquim Sodium hydrogen carbonate (bicarbonate) 9% 20%* Abiquim Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7.20% 12.6%* Abiquim Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7.20% 12.6%* Rhodia Brasil SA Butanone (methyl ethyl ketone) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Ethyl acetate 10.80% 20% Abiquim n-butyl acetate 10.80% 20% Abiquim n-butyl acetate 10.80% 20% Rhodia Brasil SA Other saturated acyclic monoalcohol acetates, c atom <= 8 10.80% 20% Abiquim Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10.80% 20% Abiquim Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10.80% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Adipic acid 9% 20% Abiquim Adipic acid 9% 20% Rhodia Brasil SA Maleic anhydride 10.80% 20% Abiquim Maleic anhydride 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Fumaric acid, its salts and esters 10.80% 20% Abiquim Dioctyl orthophthalates 10.80% 20% Abiquim Dioctyl orthophthalates 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Dinonyl or didecyl orthophthalates 10.80% 20% Abiquim Hexamethylenediamine and its salts 10.80% 20% Abiquim Monoethanolamine and its salts 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other anionic organic surface-active agents, whether or not put up for retail sale, not classified under previous codes 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, with filler 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, without filler 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other unfilled polyethylenes, density >= 0.94, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other copolymers of ethylene and vinyl acetate, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Copolymers of ethylene and alpha-olefin, with a specific gravity of less than 0.94 12.60% 20% Abiquim Unfilled polypropylene in primary form 12.60% 20% Abiquim Propylene copolymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Expandable polystyrene, unfilled, in primary form 12.60% 18% Abiquim Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Polyvinyl chloride, unmixed with other substances, obtained by suspension process 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene terephthalate of a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene terephthalate of a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.60% 20% Alpek Polyester Pernambuco SA Other unsaturated polyethers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Ex – Surfactant polymer class preparation, silicone free 12.60% 12.60% Abiquim Ex – Solvent-free modified polyester class preparation 12.60% 12.60% Abiquim White mineral oils (vaseline or paraffin oils) 3.60% 35% Abiquim Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 18% Abiquim Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 17% Rhodia Brasil SA Other silicon dioxides 0% 18% Abiquim Commercial ammonium carbonates and other ammonium carbonates 9% 18% Abiquim Styrene 9% 18% Abiquim Styrene 9% 18% Unigel Holdings Inc. Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Propylene glycol (propane-1, 2-diol) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Dipropylene glycol 12.60% 20% Abiquim Triacetin 10.80% 20% Abiquim Triacetin 10.80% 20% Denver Specialty Chemicals 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10.80% 20% Abiquim 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Salts and esters of adipic acid 10.80% 20% Abiquim Other esters of orthophthalic acid 10.80% 20% Abiquim Other esters of orthophthalic acid 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Phthalic anhydride 10.80% 20% Abiquim Phthalic anhydride 10.80% 20% Petrom Petrochemicals Mogi das Cruzes S/A Ammonium nitrate, even in aqueous solution 0% 15% Abiquim Pigments and preparations based on these pigments 12.60% 20% Abiquim Linear alkylbenzene sulfonic acids and their salts 12.60% 23% Abiquim Organic surface-active agents, non-ionic 12.60% 23% Abiquim Alkylbenzene mixtures 10.80% 20% Abiquim Stearic acid (industrial monocarboxylic fatty acid) 5.40% 35% Abiquim Stearic alcohol (industrial fatty alcohol) 12.60% 20% Abiquim Sodium methylate in methanol 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other ethylene polymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Filled polypropylene, in primary form 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.60% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Polyvinyl chloride, unmixed with other substances, obtained by emulsion process 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polymethyl methacrylate, in primary form 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polymethyl methacrylate, in primary form 12.60% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Other polyether polyols, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polyesters in liquids and pastes 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polyurethanes in liquids and pastes 12.60% 20% Abiquim Carboxymethyl cellulose with content >=75%, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Carboxymethyl cellulose with content >=75%, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Denver Specialty Chemicals Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), food grade according to the Food Chemical Codex, in primary forms 10.80% 22% Abiquim Acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in sheets, plates, etc. 10.80% 35% Abiquim Latex of other synthetic or artificial rubbers 10.80% 35% Abiquim  

19-Sep-2024

NEW YORK (ICIS)–It has been a long time coming and there is plenty more time before the chemical industry finally sees a meaningful upturn in the durable goods cycle, in turn giving a much-needed boost to commodity chemicals, according to Jefferies. “We expect demand stabilization in 2025, with a restock cycle and a rate-driven durables goods cycle in 2026-2027 to set the stage for the next period of tight commodity chemical supply/demand balances – MDI (methylene diphenyl diisocyanate) and methanol first, in our view, then acetyls, then olefins,” said Laurence Alexander, analyst at Jefferies, in a research note. In his base case scenario, the analyst sees US durable goods demand flat to down 3% in 2025 and up around 10% in 2026. The anticipated turn in the cycle for housing and durable goods would be a strong catalyst for shares of Eastman, Huntsman, Avient and DuPont, he pointed out. For chemicals in the near term, Alexander expects Q3 2024 to show a return to “normal seasonality” and Q4 volume outlooks to be trimmed 1-2% on more caution on the Christmas spending season – especially in Europe – as well as automotive production this winter. TRIMMING OUTLOOK FOR CELANESEGiven the softer near-term outlook, the Jefferies analyst also trimmed his earnings per share (EPS) estimates on Celanese for Q3 (by $0.06 to $2.84), Q4 (by $0.05 to $3.09) and for 2025 (by $0.10 to $10.40). “Credit easing is likely needed to trigger a demand rebound, and any tailwind from an improved credit environment will likely not be evident until mid-2025 at the earliest,” said Alexander. “Although destocking has faded, demand trends remain broadly sluggish with few signs of a recovery. European demand has yet to trough, North America is flattish and the recovery in Asia has been muted,” he added. By end-market, he sees electronics likely rebounding but at a slower pace until consumer confidence improves and automotive production accelerates. Consumer durables and construction demand is likely to remain soft into next summer. And automotive demand is muted overall, with headwinds to production schedules likely in the near term. Longer term, he expects better momentum in electric vehicle (EV) sales in China. Focus article by Joseph Chang

16-Sep-2024