Naphtha

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Prices for ethane, the predominant US feedstock used to make ethylene, have fallen this month to levels not seen since the pandemic, and they will likely remain depressed until colder weather arrives later in the year. Since falling below 12 cents/gal, ethane prices have risen by a few cents as some crackers have restarted. If another hurricane disrupts US exports of LNG, ethane prices could decline further with domestic natural gas prices. US ethane supplies should continue growing because of rising oil production. INEXPENSIVE ETHANE SUPPORTS ELEVATED PE MARGINSAt the least, low ethane costs will help US polyethylene (PE) producers maintain operating rates at profitable levels regardless of the strength of demand. US ethylene producers enjoy a cost advantage because they predominantly rely on ethane as a feedstock, and its price tends to rise and fall with that for natural gas. Much of the world relies on oil-based naphtha, which is usually more expensive. From a purely cost perspective, lower ethane costs allowed for integrated PE margins to increase in July, and margins may rise again in August on further reductions in integrated costs, said Harrison Jacoby, director of PE for ICIS. Because of the cost advantage of US producers, they have been able to maintain exports despite the global glut of PE. Recently, PE exports from the US need to make up 45% of total sales for domestic producers to maintain operating rates of 90%, as domestic demand has been essentially flat for many years,  Jacoby said. Inexpensive feedstock allows them to be competitive in virtually every market globally, supporting high operating rates. ANOTHER HURRICANE COULD LOWER ETHANE PRICESOne of the reasons why ethane prices fell so sharply is because Freeport LNG Development shut down its LNG operations in Freeport, Texas, because of Hurricane Beryl. The site is a key LNG export terminal in the US, and the shutdown of its operations back up natural gas supply, which depressed prices for domestic natural gas and ethane. The same scenario could repeat itself if another hurricane shuts down one of the LNG terminals on the coasts of Texas or Louisiana. Hurricane season does not peak until later in August and September, and meteorologists are expecting an active year. If a hurricane shuts down a cracker, that would reduce ethane demand, further depressing prices. WEST TEXAS GAS PRICES HOVER AROUND ZEROAnother factor depressing ethane prices is excess natural gas at the Waha hub in west Texas. The oil wells in west Texas also produce a lot of natural gas, and their output can overwhelm the pipeline capacity to ship it out of the region. Because of insufficient pipeline capacity, gas prices at the Waha hub have frequently fallen below zero. Ethane is extracted from raw natural gas. If any ethane remains in the gas stream, it is sold as fuel. If that happens at Waha, then producers would be paying a counterparty to market their supply. To avoid this, companies have been extracting as much ethane as possible. Ethane extraction also frees up space in the pipelines in west Texas, allowing them to take away more natural gas out of the region. ETHANE PRICES MAY RISE LATER IN THE YEARWaha prices will likely continue to hover around zero until the new Matterhorn Express pipeline starts up later this year. The Matterhorn pipeline will allow more natural gas to be shipped out of west Texas. This will allow gas prices at Waha to climb, which boosts ethane’s value to fuel in the region, a factor that could raise prices. As the year progresses, colder temperatures should increase demand for natural gas. That should raise gas prices, which would also push ethane prices higher. The ICIS forecast for ethane reflects this. It shows ethane prices rising as the year progresses. NEW PIPELINE TO TAKE AWAY MORE GAS FROM PERMIANThe midstream industry is already planning another pipeline to take away additional natural gas out of the west Texas. Targa, WhiteWater, MPLX and Enbridge have made a final investment decision (FID) to build the Blackcomb Pipeline, which will ship up to 2.5 billion cubic feet/day of natural gas from the Permian Basin in west Texas to the Agua Dulce area in south Texas. Operations should start in the second half of 2026. NEW MIDSTREAM PROJECTS TO RAISE ETHANE SUPPLIESThe new Blackcomb pipeline is the latest new project announced by midstream companies. They are continuing to build new natural gas processing plants. These plants remove impurities and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from raw natural gas. The processed gas is then ready to be burned as fuel or exported as LNG. The NGLs are sent to fractionators, which separate the individual components into purity products like ethane and propane. The following table shows fractionators that were started up or that are being developed. Company Project Type Capacity Units Location Startup Energy Transfer Frac IX Fractionator 165,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q4 26 Enterprise Fractionator 14 Fractionator 195,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu H2 2025 Gulf Coast Fractionators JV * GCF Fractionator Fractionator 135,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 24 ONEOK MB-6 Fractionator Fractionator 125,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu year end 24 Targa Train 9 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu in service Targa Train 10 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q1 25 Targa Train 11 Fractionator Fractionator 150,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 26 * GCF is restarting after being idled in January 2021. The JV is made up of Targa, Phillips 66 and Devon Energy Source: corporate announcements The following table shows natural gas processing plants that were started up or that are being development. Company Project Type Capacity Units Location Startup Delek not available Gas Plant 110 million cubic feet/day Delaware H1 2025 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM Q4 24 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM not available Energy Transfer Badger Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware mid 25 Energy Transfer Permian processing expansions* Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Permian Q4 24 to Q1 25 Enterprise Orion Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland H2 25 Enterprise Mentone West Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware H2 25 Enterprise Mentone West 2 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware H1 26 Enterprise Mentone 3 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service Enterprise Leonidas Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland In service MPLX Preakness II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service MPLX Secretariat Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware H2 25 MPLX Harmon Creek II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Marcellus in service Targa Greenwood Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 23 Targa Greenwood II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 24 Targa Wildcat II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 24 Targa Roadrunner II Gas Plant 230 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service Targa Bull Moose Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 25 Targa Pembrook II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 25 Targa Bull Moose II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q1 26 Targa East Pembrook Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q3 26 * GCF is restarting after being idled in January 2021. The JV is made up of Targa, Phillips 66 and Devon Energy Source: corporate announcements Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows PE pellets, which are made with ethylene. Image by ICIS

15-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS is introducing a new monthly domestic polypropylene (PP) block copolymer price index for South Korea starting from 16 August. This spot assessment on a delivered (DEL) basis is ICIS' first monthly index dedicated to the South Korean market. The new quote will track locally traded PP block copolymer resins with melt index (MI) between 30 to 60 that are mainly used for automotive applications. The launch of the quote is motivated by calls for more information and greater clarity on the domestic market conditions from South Korea's automotive industry as local prices deviate from export values. Previously, market participants have been using CFR (cost & freight) CMP (China Main Port) and prices of upstream chemicals like naphtha's, as reference points for domestic discussions. “ICIS has developed an index that is relevant for the South Korean domestic market,” ICIS Asia managing editor Peh Soo Hwee said. “This is in line with changing industry developments as taking direction from overseas markets such as China is no longer fit-for-purpose given the very different dynamics in Korea,” she said.

15-Aug-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. The ICIS data continue to tell us that we are facing the biggest shake-up in the modern history of the petrochemicals industry. Let’s today use high-density polyethylene (HDPE) China accounted for just 6% of global HDPE demand in 1992 although it had a 22% share of the global population. By the end of 2024, we expect China to generate 33% of global demand from an 18% share of the population. For far too long, our industry overlooked the warning signs: China’s rapidly ageing population, its real estate bubble and the geopolitical split with the West. It was only a question of when rather than whether the Chinese economy would enter a more challenging phase. We can see from the ICIS data on spreads and margins that the “when” arrived in late 2021 – the Evergrande Moment. CFR China HDPE injection grade price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs have averaged just $212/tonne since the end of Petrochemicals Supercycle – from January 2022 onwards. This compares with the $487/tonne average during the Supercycle – 1992 until 2021. So, spreads need to rebound by 130% to get back to where they were during the Supercycle. This year, as we can see from the chart in today’s post, they have fallen to a new record low. Global capacity was added largely on the assumption that China’s HDPE demand growth would be higher than is going to be the case. My highly unscientific “wisdom of crowds” approach, which involved talking to lots of people, suggests that the consensus view was that China’s petrochemicals demand growth in general would be at 6-8% over the long term. Low single digit growth now seems more likely. Global HDPE operating rates were very healthy during the Petrochemicals Supercycle. Including two years after the end of the Supercycle (the 1992-2023 period), we estimate they averaged 88%. We forecast a global operating rate of just 75% in 2024-2030. Global capacity would have to grow by just 173,000 tonnes a year versus our base case assumption of 2.6m tonnes a year if 2024-2030 were instead to reach 88%. Rationalisation of capacity in disadvantaged regions such as Europe and Asia ex-China seems likely as China, the Middle East and the US carry on building. So much for what we know. What about the “unknown unknowns”? Here are just two of them: What will be the size of China’s population by the end of the century and therefore its HDPE and other resins demand? Estimates range from 633m to 525m or even less. Can China fully maintain its role as the Workshop of the World? Or will reshoring and trade tensions eventually lead to a major decline in Chinese exports? Facts, or rather data, are sacred. So should be rigorous scenario planning as “one size fits all” views of the future won’t get us anywhere. Neither will a repeat of the conventional thinking that got us into this mess in the first place. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

14-Aug-2024

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to beef up its petrochemical production capacity to 14m tonnes/year by 2030 which will increase the state-owned company’s petrochemical intensity index (PII) to 15%, nearly triple its current level, company chair SM Vaidya said. Total petrochemical investments to reach Rs1.2 trillion Domestic industry projected to grow at 8-10% over the next few years Local demand estimated to hit $1 trillion by 2040 Petrochemical projects worth Indian rupees (Rs) 300 billion ($3.6 billion) are under various stages of implementation, while feasibility studies are ongoing on projects worth Rs900 billion, based on IOC’s annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. The company’s current petrochemical production capacity stands at 4.28 million tonnes/year, based on its annual report for the fiscal year ending March 2024. IOC’s PII refers to the percentage of crude oil that is directly converted into chemicals. “We are integrating petrochemicals into our refining operations," IOC chairman SM Vaidya said at the company’s annual general meeting on 9 August. "This oil-to-chemical approach will enrich our value chain, meet rising petrochemical demand, reduce import reliance, and insulate the bottom line from the impacts of oil price fluctuations," he said. By 2026, its refining capacity will have increased by more than 25% from the current 70.3 million tonnes/year to 87.9 million tonnes/year, Vaidya said at  IOC’s annual general meeting on 9 August. By the end of the decade, IOC expects its refining capacity to be 107.4 million tonnes/year, according to the annual report released on 18 July. “In 2023-24, we successfully commissioned the first phase of naphtha cracker expansion and paraxylene-purified terephthalic acid (PX-PTA) revamp project in Panipat and an ethylene glycol plant at Paradip. These have propelled our PII to 6.1%,” Vaidya said. In November 2023, IOC increased the capacity at the naphtha cracker at its Panipat refinery complex from 857,000 tonnes/year to 947,000 tonnes/year. Following the PX-PTA revamp at its Panipat refinery, IOC has increased its PX production to 460,000 tonnes/year and PTA output to 700,000 tonnes/year, as per the company website. In March 2024, the company inaugurated its 357,000 tonne/year monoethylene glycol (MEG) project at its Paradip refinery complex. PETROCHEMICAL PROJECT PIPELINE Indian Oil plans to commission a 150,000 tonne/year butyl acrylate plant at its Gujarat refinery in the current financial year 2024-25. One of the company’s ambitious petrochemical projects include the mega complex at Paradip in eastern Odisha state, Vaidya said, noting that the Rs610 billion project is IOC’s “largest ever investment at a single location”. The petrochemical complex will include a world-scale 1.5 milion tonne/year naphtha cracker unit along with downstream process units for producing polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE), linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The Paradip petrochemical project is currently in implementation stage and the company expects to commission it by August 2029, IOC said in its annual report released on 18 July. As part of its future expansions, IOC expects to begin operations at the 200,000 tonne/year PP plant at its Barauni refinery and 500,000 tonne/year PP line at its Gujarat refinery before end-March 2026, based on the company’s annual report. IOC has also enhanced its lube oil base stocks (LOBS) capacity at its Haldia complex and is setting up new plants at its Gujarat and Panipat refineries, Vaidya said, adding, “we aim to increase the capacity from 730,000 tonnes/year to 1.5 million tonnes/year”. The company expects to commission the 60,000 tonnes/year polybutadiene rubber (PBR) plant at its Panipat refinery by March 2025 as per the annual report. These planned expansions by IOC will help meet the rising petrochemical demand in the country, IOC stated in its latest annual report. The domestic petrochemical industry is "poised for substantial growth, driven by India’s sturdy macro fundamentals, population expansion and presently low per capita polymer consumption," it said. India's overall petrochemical demand is projected to nearly triple by 2040, with the industry's value expected to reach the $1 trillion mark, said Indian minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Pur in a presentation at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in May 2023. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.91) Thumbnail image: An Indian Oil petrol pump in Kolkata, 17 January 2022. (By Indranil Aditya/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

14-Aug-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–European petrochemical leaders should take inspiration from Japan, which is further ahead in reducing base chemicals while expanding in specialties and low carbon technologies. Japan hit by with high naphtha feedstock costs, growing global overcapacity 70% of crackers are more than 50 years old More than 10% of Japan’s crackers could close Downstream production also closing such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and paraxylene (PX) Japan basic chemicals losing ground, new focus on specialties Pushing materials for semiconductors, electronics Also expanding into bio-naphtha and pyrolysis oil Japanese companies want to licence their chemicals technologies Using ammonia and hydrogen to reduce dependence on LNG South Korea chemicals face existential crisis In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior market development manager Itaru Kudose, ICIS senior consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

25-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business posted a 14.3% year-on-year drop in earnings in its fiscal first quarter ending June 2024 on poor chemicals margins, the Indian conglomerate said. O2C results in 10 million rupees (Rs) Apr-June 2024 Apr-June 2023 % Change Revenue 157,133 133,031 18.1 EBITDA 13,093 15,286 -14.3 Exports 71,463 69,006 3.6 – Revenue for the period rose primarily on the back of higher product prices in line with Brent crude price gains, and increased volumes due to strong domestic demand, the company said on 19 July. – Fiscal Q1 overall earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin dropped to 8.3% from 11.5% in the same period of last year. – On a year-on-year basis, April-June domestic polymer and polyester demand increased by 8% and 5%, respectively. – RIL's consolidated group profit after tax fell by 4% year on year to Rp175 billion ($2.09 billion) in April-June 2024. Polymers- Fiscal Q1 polymer margins were down by 0.5% to 16.9% year on year due to firm naphtha prices. Product margin over naphtha April-June 2024 ($/tonne) April-June 2023 ($/tonne) % Change Polyethylene (PE) 330 397 -16.9% Polypropylene (PP) 318 381 -16.5% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) 371 373 -0.5% Polyester – Paraxylene (PX) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins over naphtha decreased year on year due to higher naphtha prices. – "PTA [purified terephthalic acid] margins were impacted adversely due to high inventory with Chinese producers and increased competition," the company said. – On a year-on-year basis, domestic polyester demand in fiscal Q1 increased by 5%, driven by strong growth in PET, which was up 27% due to "higher demand from the beverage segment on account of summer season and elections". ($1 = Rs83.7)

22-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 12 July 2024. OUTLOOK: Asia naphtha market braces for supply uncertainties By Li Peng Seng 12-Jul-24 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha market sentiment is expected to be choppy in the short term due to a lack of clarity on arbitrage supplies against volatile demand. OUTLOOK: Asia EVA market loses shine as demand from PV sector lags By Helen Lee 11-Jul-24 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) from China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is likely to remain lackluster amid an oversupply in the entire industry chain. PODCAST: China to accelerate hydrogen development via energy law By Patricia Tao 10-Jul-24 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's recent decision to include hydrogen in its draft national energy law signals a transformative shift in the country's energy landscape. China EV giant BYD to invest $1 billion in Turkey production plant By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Jul-24 15:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD has agreed to invest $1 billion to set up a manufacturing plant in Turkey which will produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. PODCAST: Asia recycling market sees increased interest in pyrolysis By Damini Dabholkar 09-Jul-24 11:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market players in Asia are increasingly becoming more interested in the use of pyrolysis oil as fuel. OUTLOOK: SE Asia PE to see some demand recovery in H2, challenges persist By Izham Ahmad 09-Jul-24 15:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face modest demand recovery in the second half (H2) of the year, but this is likely to be negated by increased supply and the threat of high freight costs affecting import shipments.

15-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–European ethylene spot prices have firmed week on week on the back of better-than-expected demand amid higher feedstock values and an increasing focus on upcoming planned cracker maintenance outages. Spot deals this week have been reported at discounts of 32-35% on the pipeline, prior deals had been at discounts of around 38-39%. Producers say they have received several requests for additional volume offtakes in July. This is being attributed to a combination of factors: Improved sentiment from domestic PVC players following the imposition of tariffs on imports ex-Egypt and the US Continued high container freight rates which are restricting some derivative imports Recent hurricane-related production and logistics disruptions ex-US Firmer month-on-month naphtha values which is likely to drive discussions for the August contract reference price settlement Planned cracker maintenance due to get underway from September particularly that due in Germany with alternative supply flexibility likely to be limited at that time due to pressure issues on the ARG pipeline. With crackers having been run at rates closely aligned with contractual demand – still very much below normal albeit better than in 2023 – there is not too much flexibility for additional volumes at short notice. “Many will have assumed that ethylene supply would always be plentiful,” a source said, “and now they find that it is not the case.” Cracker operators have avoided as far as possible marginal tonne production as spot appetite has been extremely low unless at deep discounts to the prevailing contract price. Crackers are underutilised, so in theory, there is space to ramp up. But with August around the corner and few indications at this stage how long this better-than-expected demand will be sustained, sources assume producers will be reluctant to ramp up production in July. Thumbnail photo: Flooding in Houston, Texas, in the wake of Hurricane Beryl on 8 July 2024, one of the causes of firming ethylene prices. Source: Carlos Ramirez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

12-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Global crude oil demand slumped to 710,000 bbl/day in Q2 2024 as China’s post-pandemic economic rebound ran its course, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Representing the slowest quarterly increase since the closing months of 2022, the period saw Chinese demand decline in April and May, the agency said in its July monthly oil market report. Global oil demand gains are expected to hover below one million barrels/day in 2024 and 2025 as tepid consumption growth, vehicle electrification and energy efficiency measures weigh on purchasing. Total supply increased by 150,000 barrels/day to 102.9 million barrels in June as easing maintenance levels and increasing biofuels output offset a fall in Saudi production, the IEA added. Saudi Arabia output fell to 8.85 million barrels in June from 9.03 million barrels the previous month, according to IEA data, leaving the Kingdom’s total excess capacity at 3.26 million barrels/day. Despite weak demand growth, pricing firmed slightly in June, with Brent crude futures priced around $86/barrel at the end of the month, and remaining around the $85/barrel mark in trading this week. This increase was driven in part by OPEC+ coalition signals that the schedule for unwinding production cuts would depend on market conditions, easing fears of a sudden surge in supply. Petrochemical sector demand for oil was sluggish during the quarter, the IEA added, but other signs point to potential early improvements for manufacturing in Europe. “Demand for industrial fuels and petrochemical feedstocks was particularly weak. By contrast, Q2 delivery data of gasoil and naphtha for OECD economies came in higher than expected, potentially signalling a budding recovery in Europe’s ailing manufacturing sector,” the IEA said. Despite the industrial input uptick, overall demand continues to trend slower, the agency added. “For next year, the call on OPEC+ crude tumbles… as demand growth continues to slow and non-OPEC+ output continues to expand. After the hot summer, cooler trends are set to prevail.” Thumbnail photo: An oil rig off the coast of China's Hebei province. Source: Xinhua/Shutterstock

11-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 5 July. Shell to post up to $2 billion in impairments in Q2 results Energy major Shell on Friday said that it expects to book $2 billion in post-tax impairments following the sale of its Singapore assets and the suspension of construction at its biofuels plant in the Netherlands. European Commission imposes China EV tariffs citing ‘unfair’ subsidies The European Commission is to move forward with proposed plans to impose tariffs of nearly 40% in some cases to China-manufactured battery electric vehicles (BEVs), citing a level of state subsidy it terms as “unfair”. Global phenol demand expected to rise, driven by downstream growth Global phenol demand is expected to increase by about 1.9% in 2024 after a weak 2023, supported by growth in the key downstream bisphenol A (BPA) market. Europe cracker margins down on firmer naphtha, LPG costs Europe cracker margins went down week on week on the back of firmer feedstock costs, ICIS margin analysis showed on Tuesday. Eurozone manufacturing momentum ebbs in June as demand deteriorates Eurozone manufacturing sector activity slipped further into contraction in June as demand slowed in most of the bloc’s largest economies, while conditions improved in the UK.

08-Jul-2024