Polyethylene (PE)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average container rates ticked lower last week, along with rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast, but rates from Asia-New York held steady during what is typically the slow season for transpacific ocean freight. Shipping analysts said rates remain elevated for several reasons, most significantly the frontloading of imports ahead of possible renewed labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports. The possible implementation of new tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration is also keeping upward pressure on rates. Global average rates fell by 2% for the week ended 29 November, as shown in the following chart from supply chain advisors Drewry. The following chart from Drewry shows the rates from Asia to both US coasts. Drewry expects spot rates to be relatively stable this week. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said inland truck and rail rates could also face upward pressure as tariffs aimed specifically at Canada and Mexico could lead to increased cross-border volumes. Levine said congestion remains minimal at US ports, including the main West Coast port of Los Angeles/Long Beach. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said container ship traffic through the port continues to be steady with 67 container ships enroute and 12 scheduled to arrive in the next three days. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID RATES STEADY Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane, as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Colombia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting contract of affreightment (COA) nominations. The USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh enquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

02-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 29 November 2024. ICIS Economic Summary: US election uncertainty over, policy impact to begin Much of the uncertainty surrounding the US election has been lifted, but there remain questions about the extent that stated policy goals will be achieved and their impact on the economy next year and beyond. INSIGHT: Deloitte expects more chem M&A as industry remains in flux The chemical industry is entering the new year amid an especially large amount of flux, with China receding as a demand driver, Europe contending with plant shutdowns and producers rearranging businesses through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Canadian manufacturers fear ‘devastating’ impact from Trump's proposed 25% tariff New US tariffs on US-Canada trade would have a devastating impact on manufacturers, workers and consumers on both sides of the border, trade group Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME) said on Tuesday. INSIGHT: LatAm chemicals face threats of US tariffs, global oversupply Chatter on challenges permeated the Latin American Chemical and Petrochemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting as delegates faced down threats of global oversupply and the potential for new tariffs from the US. INSIGHT: US refiners to face higher oil, catalyst costs with Trump's tariffs The tariffs proposed by President-Elect Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada and China would raise costs for the heavier grades of oil needed by US refineries as well as rare-earth elements used to make catalysts for downstream refining units. Argentina’s petchems prices to take time to fall despite import tax withdrawalArgentina’s decision to eliminate the so-called PAIS import tax earlier than planned is unlikely to have any impact on petrochemicals prices for now, sources said this week. LatAm PE domestic prices fall in Argentina, Brazil and MexicoDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as lower in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico on the back of competitive offers from abroad and weak demand. In other Latin American (LatAm) countries, prices were unchanged.

02-Dec-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 29 November. Europe methanol supply shortages worsen for December, prices at 2022 highs Europe's methanol market is expected to tighten further as production outages in US and Europe apply pressure on supply. India’s Adani Group access to foreign capital at risk amid US bribery charges India’s Adani Group may run into difficulty accessing external funding and may see an increase in its capital costs as global rating agencies have downgraded the outlook for several of the group’s companies, citing escalating legal and governance risks. Soda ash annual contract talks progress as players prepare for another challenging year Soda ash demand in November is overall stable in Europe, but the lack of any pick-up has prompted some furnace closures at glass manufacturers, although some plants that were shut last year may restart next year. Deloitte expects more chem M&A as industry remains in flux The chemical industry is entering the new year amid an especially large amount of flux, with China receding as a demand driver, Europe contending with plant shutdowns and producers rearranging businesses through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Europe PE/PP spot prices stable to soft as year ends with a limp Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) spot prices were stable to lower in the week to 22 November, with limited business done.

02-Dec-2024

MUSCAT (ICIS)–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) petrochemical players must formulate strategic international partnerships and invest in optimization and innovation to remain competitive, according to the secretary general of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA). “In the short term, the [GCC petrochemicals] industry needs to urgently adapt to shifting market dynamics and explore new opportunities within products and markets,” Abdulwahab Al Sadoun told ICIS ahead of the 18th Annual GPCA Forum in Muscat, Oman on 2-5 December. "Formulating the right strategic partnerships, particularly with regards to the region’s top export market – China – will also be important in securing growth," he said. The GCC comprises six Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The forum took place outside the UAE for the first time in 2022, when it was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; in Doha, Qatar the following year; and in Muscat, Oman this year. The GCC petrochemical industry’s performance is closely interlinked with the health of the global economy, including changes in consumer demand patterns, regulatory and policy updates and demand fluctuations in end markets, Al-Sadoun said. “Aligning itself with key global objectives and ensuring their products and services provide meaningful solutions to the challenges we face will be vital in securing the industry’s future.” Al-Sadoun said that the forum’s theme of “Industry’s Next Chapter: Driving Sustainable Advancement for Global Progress” was timely as the GCC petrochemicals industry now stands at a crossroads in the chemical industry’s evolution. The world today is faced with "insurmountable challenges", Al-Sadoun said. Geopolitical turmoil, climate change, food insecurity, supply chain disruptions, and waste management are some of the megatrends impacting the chemical industry, society and planet, according to Al-Sadoun. “As the external environment around us continues to be in a state of change, so does the chemical industry need to evolve apace…The chemical and petrochemical sector plays an instrumental role as a solutions provider to some of these key challenges,” he said. “At the heart of our chemistry solutions lies the vision to contribute to global sustainable advancement – simultaneously enhancing our contributions to socio-economic prosperity, while at the same time preserving our planet and developing solutions that contribute to the energy transition and the circular economy.” DUAL CHALLENGE As the global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, the industry will be faced with the dual challenge of meeting growing chemicals demand driven by an expanding, urbanized population, while at the same time meeting its obligations to decarbonize and preserve the environment, Al-Sadoun said. “As global discussions intensify around renewable energy sources and low-carbon technologies, major GCC players have announced net-zero emissions goals and are investing in green technologies, such as hydrogen production and renewable energy integration.” Advancing the circular economy is also an important factor in driving the sustainable transition, he said. Notable innovations across the GCC industry include Kuwait producer EQUATE’s Viridis 25, the region's first food-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET) incorporating 25% chemically recycled material, reducing reliance on virgin PET, Al-Sadoun noted. Similarly, UAE polymers major Borouge has advanced recyclability through mono-material laminates and flexible packaging solutions, while Saudi Arabia chemicals giant SABIC continues to lead with its certified circular polymers made from 100% recycled plastic. Government-driven initiatives, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategy, will also provide a supportive policy framework for industry-wide sustainability transitions, he noted. “However, industry players are under no illusion that the road to sustainability is long and ridden with challenges,” Al-Sadoun said. “It requires true collaboration, Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and the entire value chain to pull their weight to chart a viable pathway to sustainability,” he said. “The journey to achieving big goals is often a series of small, consistent steps…And this is what the industry needs to focus on – taking impactful, consistent actions every day." Interview article and infographic by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: GPCA secretary-general Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun (Source: GPCA)

02-Dec-2024

TORONTO (ICIS)–Shipments in Canada’s chemistry sector are expected to grow between 1-4% in 2025 and in the plastic sector they are expected to grow 2-3%, David Cherniak, policy manager, Business and Transportation, at the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC), said in a webinar. Trade disputes and tariffs Canadian elections bring political uncertainties Renewed labor disruptions CIAC’s projections assume a pick-up in the global economic growth in 2025, he said but also warned of downside risks, in particular from possible US tariffs and Canada’s elections next year. The Ottawa-based trade group speaks for both Canada’s chemical and plastic industries. In chemicals, the 2025 growth would come after projected growth of about 2% for 2024, which was weaker than CIAC initially expected as interest rates did not fall by as much as had been anticipated, Cherniak said. The higher rates affected demand for chemicals from interest-sensitive end markets, in particular housing and auto, “which take up a lot of chemicals”, he said. TAILWINDS IN 2025 For 2025, CIAC sees a number of tailwinds for the industry, Cherniak said: Interest rates coming down, driving up demand for chemicals and plastics from housing, autos and other interest-rate sensitive markets, probably more towards the second half of the year. Increased diversification as Canada ships chemicals from its West Coast ports to new markets. Shutdowns of older plants in the global chemical industry. Canada’s “structural advantage” in production costs, due to low natural gas and energy prices. A weak Canadian dollar, which is “definitely a tailwind” for Canada’s highly export-dependent chemicals sector. New investments, with CIAC tracking 26 projects that could move to final investment decisions. HEADWINDS However, the industry is also facing “high political uncertainties” as Canada is heading into an election year, Cherniak said. A change in government could affect programs and incentives for investments in low-emission chemical projects, he noted. Another major headwind for the chemical industry is trade tensions, Cherniak said and went on to note the threat earlier this week by US President-elect Donald Trump to put a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. The US is the largest market by far for Canada’s chemicals industry. CIAC, for its part, will be making the case that the US-Canada chemical industry is integrated and that both the Canadian and the US economies are relying on the industry to perform well, he said. If implemented, Trump’s tariffs would not just harm the chemical and plastics industries but would have broad impacts across the overall economy, he added. However, tariffs were not just a US issue, he said. Rather, trade tensions related to chemicals were increasing globally, he said. In the past year alone, countries such as China, India, South Korea or Brazil targeted chemical products in trade disputes, he said. Brazil plans an investigation into polyethylene (PE) arriving from Canada and the US. According to CIAC data, Canada exports about Canadian dollar (C$) 4 million/month (US$3 million/month) of PE resin products to Brazil. Domestically, labor disputes and disruptions at Canada’s freight railroads or ports could yet again pose challenges for chemical producers in 2025, following this year’s disruptions, he said. A labor union has already obtained a mandate for a strike at freight rail carrier Canadian National that could begin on 1 January, and it is planning a strike vote at Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), it said this week. Taken together, trade tension and transport disruptions have made it harder to move chemicals around the world. Combined with weakness in key end markets, the entire global market could become unstable, he said. “A lot of different clouds are circling on the horizon, a lot of different things" could slow down what CIAC otherwise expects to be "a decent year", he said. (source: CIAC) (US$1=C$1.40) Thumbnail image show logo of Ottawa-based Chemistry Industry Association of Canada/Association canadienne de l’industrie de la chimie

29-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The US has gained an estimated $2.2 billion in linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) sales turnover in China since the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle came to an end. It has gained $859 million in high density PE (HDPE). And its exports in tonnes have also surged. This has occurred as Saudi Arabia, Iran and South Korea, etc have lost a lot of ground. The US gains are the result of a big drop in import tariffs in February 2020, thanks to a trade deal, and of course the strong US ethane-based cost position. In a deflationary or disinflationary Chinese economy, cost is the king. But Donald Trump’s election victory has pushed us into a world of uncertainty. Almost anything might now happen. This brings to my mind the fabulous science fiction series of books and TV and radio shows, "The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy", and its Infinite Improbability Drive. This is defined as such: The infinite improbability drive is a wonderful new method of crossing interstellar distances in a mere second, without all that tedious mucking about in hyperspace. As soon as the ship's drive reaches infinite improbability, it passes through every conceivable point in every conceivable universe simultaneously. In one of any number of scenarios, let’s assume that China responds to increased US tariffs with increased tariffs on imports of US PE, as it did in 2017. Then the US loss could be to the gain of South Korea, Iran, etc. But, as we saw in 2017, the US might not lose out as whole. Its export flows to southeast Asia, Europe and Latin America might increase as other countries fill the gap created in China. Here’s some advice: Put the ICIS data into something akin to an Infinite Improbability Drive and you might get the answers you need. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

29-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–November’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices have eased in the face of dispiriting demand and as maintenance season comes to a close in Europe. ICIS senior editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake weigh up what's behind the November trends, how forex and logistics might be affecting the markets and what’s in store for December. They also discuss ICIS coverage of European PE, PP players adapting value propositions in the face of an evolving market, and Think Tank’s podcast episode: Trump trade war will drive end of globalization for chemicals. Editing by Will Beacham

25-Nov-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 22 November. NEWS APLA '24: LatAm chems should prepare for rebalancing to take place only from 2030 onwards – APLALatin American chemicals producers should be prepared to face a prolonged downturn which could extend to 2030 as newer capacities globally keep coming online, according to the director general at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA). APLA '24: Mexico's Cancun to host APLA 2025Next year's annual summit of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) will take place in Cancun, Mexico, the organizers confirmed on Thursday. APLA '24: Moeve to advance sustainable detergent materials – execMoeve Chemicals, previously known as Cepsa Chemicals, is pushing forward with sustainable innovations in the detergent industry, particularly through its linear alkyl benzene (LAB) business, according to an executive at the producer. APLA ’24: Anastacio sees Mexico as next major market to gain market share – CEOBrazil-based chemical distributor Quimica Anastacio is making a major push into Mexico, adding to its strong presence in Brazil and Argentina, its CEO said. APLA '24: Women face persistent workplace and travel safety challenges – chems execsA discussion among industry leaders has highlighted ongoing challenges women face in workplace equality and business travel safety, with experts warning that salary parity remains decades away. APLA '24: Latin America poised for strategic growth amid global shifts – economistLatin America stands at a crucial turning point as global economic and political dynamics shift, with significant opportunities in energy, food security and technological advancement, an economist said on Tuesday. APLA ’24: Vaca Muerta to double Argentina oil and gas production by 2030, allow for new chem projects – YPFGrowing production in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation should double oil and gas volumes in the country by 2030, enough for new petrochemicals projects, as rising production in Vaca Muerta more than offsets declines in conventional production, an executive at energy producer YPF said. APLA ’24: Brenntag aims to expand footprint in Brazil and Mexico via M&A, organic growth – execGermany-based chemical distributor Brenntag will focus on expanding its business in Brazil and Mexico in particular in Latin America through acquisitions and organic growth, said the head of its Latin American industrial chemicals business. APLA '24: Colombia’s plastics grapple with new regulations, Chinese competition – Grupo AlmatiaThe Colombian plastics industry faces significant challenges as it navigates new environmental regulations and increasing competition from Chinese imports, the CEO at plastics distributor Grupo Almatia said. APLA ’24: Logistics more challenging to plan with increasing external threats – panel Logistics are getting even more challenging, as climate change, armed conflicts and tariffs are making planning difficult, shipping experts said on a panel discussion at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. APLA '24: LatAm petchem woes remain, some help to come from nascent protectionist eraLatin American petrochemicals profitability, even the survival of some domestic producers, will hardly come from oversupplied markets facing poor demand but governments’ helping hand with protectionist measures. Unigel seeks US court recognition of Brazilian reorganization planUnigel filed a court proceeding that seeks US recognition of its reorganization plans, which had been approved in Brazil, the Brazilian styrenics and acrylics producer said on Friday. PRICINGAPLA '24: LatAm PP international prices fall in Chile, Peru on competitive Asian offersInternational polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Chile and Peru due to competitive Asian offers. Prices remained unchanged this week in other Latin American (LatAm) countries. APLA '24: Most LatAm PE domestic, international prices steady to lower on weak demand, cheaper importsMost domestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to lower across Latin American countries this week on the back of weak demand and competitive offers from abroad. APLA '24: Brazil’s caustic soda supply strains; PVC market sees increased competitionIn Brazil’s caustic soda market, a combination of planned and unplanned maintenance events in Q4 2024 has intensified supply constraints, exerting potential pressure on prices. APLA '24: Latin America’s PE, PP demand expected weak to year-end, 2025Persistent poor demand for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) across Latin American economies is expected to stay for the remaining of the year and into 2025, with no improvement signs on the horizon.

25-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 22 November. Bearish sentiment in Asian naphtha market likely short-lived By Li Peng Seng 18-Nov-24 11:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's naphtha market sentiment nosedived last week amid bearish pressures, but cracker expansion in South Korea and gasoline demand ahead of a festive season will likely buoy up demand. Thai PTTGC plans $840 million 5-year capex; focus on Allnex growth By Jonathan Yee 18-Nov-24 17:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai chemicals producer PTT Global Chemical plans capital expenditure (capex) of $840 million in the next five years, more than 78% of which will be invested to grow its Germany-based specialty chemicals subsidiary Allnex. INSIGHT: Most Asia petrochemical markets to post Nov losses By Lina Xu 18-Nov-24 15:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Most petrochemical markets in Asia are expected to register losses in November on slowing demand as the year draws to a close. China's PC market faces ongoing supply pressure By Li Peng Seng 19-Nov-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's polycarbonate (PC) import market is likely to remain under pressure due to persistent oversupply, trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties. Asia caustic soda unlikely to see immediate impact from China’s removal of aluminium export tax rebates By Jonathan Chou 20-Nov-24 12:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's announcement to end export tax rebates on aluminium effective on 1 December may have limited long-term changes in caustic soda’s demand and supply conditions in Asia. SE Asia bottlenecks disrupt regional chemical tanker operations By Hwee Hwee Tan 21-Nov-24 11:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Persistent delays in tanker operations in southeast Asia are snowballing into wider vessel schedule disruptions across intra-Asia trade lanes. More stringent regulations to hamper Asia’s rPET exports By Arianne Perez 22-Nov-24 14:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Major producers of high-value recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) flakes and pellets from Asia continue to aim for a growing market share in premium markets including the Americas and Europe.

25-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US East Coast were largely flat and rates to the West Coast fell by 5%, and the Panama Canal will begin allowing swapping of slots on 1 January, highlighting shipping news this week. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Global average rates ticked lower by 1% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Asia to New York were largely stable on the week while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to remain stable over the coming week. Drewry’s assessment has rates to the East Coast about $700/40-foot equivalent units (FEU) higher than to the West Coast. Online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos has rates to both coasts nearly at parity slightly higher than Drewry’s East Coast rate. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said transpacific ocean rates are about 35%-45% below peak levels seen in July now that the peak season has ended. He said upward pressure remains from stronger than normal demand as some shippers are frontloading volumes ahead of expected tariff increases from the new administration as well as the possibility of another work stoppage at US East Coast ports as the 15 January deadline to finalize a new collective bargaining agreement nears. Levine noted that Lunar New Year starts at the end of January this year, which is earlier than usual. The unusual parity of transpacific rates to both coasts may point to some shift of demand to the West Coast due to January strike concerns, Levine said. LIQUID TANKER RATES – USG-BRAZIL TICKS HIGHER Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates was largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Columbia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting COA nominations. USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Bunker prices rose, mainly due to the increase in energy prices following continued geopolitical concerns. PANAMA CANAL TO ALLOW SWAPPING OF SLOTS The Panama Canal will begin allowing swapping and substitutions of booking slots between container vessels with some conditions beginning 1 January, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said. The conditions are that both vessels must be the same type and must belong to the containership segment, both vessels must belong to the same vessel classification (Neopanamax, Super or Regular), and both vessels must be transiting in the same direction. Also, for swaps, vessels must have similar transit restrictions, and for substitutions, the new vessel must have similar or lesser transit restrictions, both vessel operators must belong to services under the same cooperative working agreement (Global Alliances or VSA), and the booking date of the vessels involved in the swap or substitution must be within the effective date of the services and of the Alliance or VSA. All other Long Term Slot Allocation method (LoTSA) and ordinary booking slots rules remain in effect. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

22-Nov-2024