Polyethylene (PE)

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Discover the factors influencing polyethylene (PE) markets

From the packaging on our food to the paints in our homes, polyethylene (PE) surrounds us as by far the largest commodity plastic by overall volume. It is essential to our daily lives. With countless applications in everyday materials, it is crucial for anyone with an active interest in the market to understand what is driving PE markets. Adapting efficiently to the significant changes in how it is being produced and consumed around the world is key.

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Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 17 January. US steadies 2025 growth outlook as Europe struggles – IMF Global economic growth this year is expected to increase modestly compared to 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, as stronger expectations of US growth offset an increasing bearish outlook for Europe. Europe jet fuel prices lift off with Brent surge, but demand fails to take flight Jet fuel spot prices in Europe climbed in the week to 14 January, mirroring a rally in upstream Brent crude and gasoil values. However, activity in the physical market remained sluggish, weighed down by low buying interest and abundant supply. Latest US sanctions could hit Russia oil supply – IEA The latest tranche of US sanctions on Russia’s oil trade could affect flows from the country, while weather-related production shut-ins in North America could also impact global supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. Europe naphtha climbs on Brent gains amid sluggish buying, weaker margins Open-spec naphtha (OSN) spot quotations in Europe have been on an upward trajectory, rallying on the back of firming Brent crude values. This was despite subdued blending requirements and poor feedstock demand which kept market liquidity low. PP and PE Africa markets rebalance, some price rises emerge amid lacklustre demand Spot prices in the African polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) markets were mostly stable in the first full week of January, although upward momentum was felt in high density polyethylene (HDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) due to tightening supply.

20-Jan-2025

SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates fall as carriers seek to boost demand during LNY lull

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US edged lower this week as carriers have reduced short-term rates to both coasts to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year (LNY). Analysts at freight forwarder Flexport said that pre-LNY demand has slowed, resulting in low carrier vessel utilization rates and a softening market. Rates from Shanghai to New York fell by 4% from the previous week and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming weeks due to increased capacity. Global average rates fell by 3%, as shown in the following chart. Flexport analysts said that space remains constrained following the pre-LNY rush, especially on fixed allocations, but some strings still have open space, especially to the West Coast and, to a lesser extent, the East Coast. Carriers have planned 11% blank sailings during the LNY period, aligning with network adjustments. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. USG-ASIA CHEM TANKER RATES TICK LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady to lower for most trade lanes this week, with slight decreases on the US Gulf (USG) to Asia trade lane. There are bigger gaps of vessel space showing in January. Therefore, there are a backlog of outsiders looking for opportunities, which weighed on spot rates this week, pushing them lower. From the USG to Rotterdam, there has been a lull in activity on this route as contract space for January is soft, leaving players looking for additional cargoes to complete space for a few tanks. Styrene monomer, glycol and methanol has been said to be a popular commodity within this trade lane. As a result, smaller parcel freights have taken a steep drop from January loadings, while larger parcel sizes seem destined for the same and rates decreasing, according to a broker, various glycol and methanol cargos have keen interest along this route. From the USG to Brazil, there are a few outsiders open for the end of January to early February, along with some regulars with some small pocket space. This trade lane is expected to face some downward pressure as the list of fully open vessels presently continues to grow, according to a broker. Meanwhile from the USG to the Mediterranean, there is still a bit of open space, and the market quotes continue to come in for February. This route after a bit of uncertainty is seeing rates steadying for the balance of open space. On the other hand, bunker prices were higher this week following the rise in energy prices. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

17-Jan-2025

VIDEO: Europe R-PET flake sellers see positive start to 2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Flake sellers see more positive start to 2025 based on January volumes Feedstock bale prices still a key issue Buyers yet to accept higher prices for January February price talks not yet underway

17-Jan-2025

Indonesian rupiah tumbles to 6-month low after surprise key rate cut

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Indonesian rupiah fell to its weakest level in more than six months on Thursday following an unexpected loosening of monetary policy on 15 January to spur growth in southeast Asia's largest economy. Rupiah weakened due to US policy uncertainty under Trump 2025 GDP growth forecast trimmed to 4.7-5.5% Inflation to remain within 1.5-3.5% target in 2025 The rupiah (Rp) was extending losses on Thursday, falling to as low as Rp16,383 against the US dollar in early trade. At 07:41 GMT, the rupiah was trading at Rp16,376 to the US dollar. In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% on 15 January. BI also reduced its deposit facility rate by 25bps to 5.00% and lending facility rate to 6.50%. "The decision is consistent with low projected inflation in 2025 and 2026…maintaining the rupiah exchange rate in line with economic fundamentals to control inflation within the target range and the need to bolster economic growth," BI said in a statement. BI last slashed interest rates in September last year for the first time in over three years. However, it subsequently maintained a steady policy stance at later meetings to stabilize the rupiah, which had come under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US policy under Donald Trump. "The rate cut was unexpected as BI previously emphasized that its near-term policy stance is aimed at rupiah stability amid strong US Dollar," Malaysia-based equity research firm Kenanga said in a note on Thursday. "The shift reflects a focus on boosting growth amid slowing domestic expansion, low inflation, and rising global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, China's weak recovery, and policy changes in the US," it said. BI is expected to maintain an easing stance to bolster economic growth, Kenanga said, but concerns regarding rupiah stability may prompt a gradual and cautious approach, particularly as the US Federal Reserve may slow its rate cuts due to the resilience of the US economy. "We expect the rupiah to gradually strengthen by the end of 2025 on the expectations of lower US policy rate and an improving domestic economy, it said. "Nonetheless, we expect two more cuts, bringing BI’s policy rate to reach 5.25% in 2025." SLOWER GROWTH PROJECTED BI on 15 January revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.7-5.5%, slightly lower than its previous projection of 4.8-5.6%. This downward revision is attributed to weaker exports, subdued household demand, and lower private investment. Indonesia is a net importer of several petrochemicals, including polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), as well as the world's largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer – a key oleochemicals feedstock. Like most in Asia, Indonesia is export-oriented economy. Its full-year exports rose by 2.3% year on year to $264.7 billion, while imports increased by 5.3% to $233.66 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of around $31 billion, official data showed. For the month of December alone, the country’s trade surplus narrowed to $2.24 billion, marking the lowest surplus since July, as exports to key markets, including China, India, and Taiwan declined. Total exports for the month were up by 4.8% year on year at $23.46bn, while imports grew at a faster rate of 11.1% to $21.22 billion. For 2024, growth is expected to settle slightly below the midpoint of the 4.7-5.5% range, reflecting softer domestic demand. Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.05% in 2023, slowing from the 5.31% expansion the previous year due to sluggish exports. BI in its statement highlighted that the global economy is experiencing growth divergence, with the US exceeding projections due to fiscal stimuli and technological investments, while Europe, China, Japan, and India face sluggish growth. The global economic growth for 2025 is expected to reach 3.2%, driven by the strong US economy, it noted. However, US policy and inward-looking trade policies are prolonging disinflation and strengthening expectations of dovish monetary policy, leading to increased global financial market uncertainty, BI said. "Global economic developments require a strong policy response, therefore, to mitigate the adverse impacts of global spillovers, maintain stability and drive domestic economic growth," it added. In terms of inflation, CPI inflation averaged 2.3% in 2024, well within BI's target range of 1.5-3.5%. Inflation is expected to remain within this target in 2025, supported by ample domestic capacity to meet demand. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

16-Jan-2025

India petrochemical prices rise as rupee tumbles to all-time low

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s currency – the rupee – slumped to a record low in the week, pushing up both domestic and import prices of some petrochemicals in the south Asian country amid stable demand. Strong US dollar sends Indian rupee tumbling Acetone, EVA import prices jump India inflation within central bank target range The Indian rupee (Rs) is currently trading at above Rs86 against the US dollar, having shed more than 3% since the early November, when Donald Trump won the US election. At 07:10 GMT, the rupee was trading at Rs86.49. A strong US dollar and heavy outflows of short-term investments sent the currency tumbled to a record low of Rs86.9964 on 14 January, according to foreign exchange platform xe.com. India’s demand for overseas goods will likely be dented as a weaker currency makes imports more expensive. PETROCHEMICAL BUYERS TURN CAUTIOUS With import prices of several products on uptrend amid the rupee weakness, some buyers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude on markets. India is a major importer of petrochemicals including polymers. Rupee’s tumble has notably adversely affected PE Black 100 pipe import offers from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Asian sellers as buyers switch to domestic PE Natural. PE Black 100 and PE Natural are specific grades of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) used primarily for high pressure water pipes. In the recycled polyethylene (rPE) and recycled polypropylene (rPP) markets, downstream converters in India that import cargoes from northeast Asia are feeling the pinch. Fewer India-bound rPE and rPP cargoes are expected in the coming weeks, compounded by high intra-Asia freight rates. For exporters of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET), meanwhile, there was no upsurge in shipments despite the rupee’s weakness. India continues to position itself as net exporter of rPET cargoes,  mainly bound to long-haul buyers in the Americas and in Europe. India’s aggressive expansion of rPET materials have posed competition to other Asian producers, particularly those in southeast Asia. In the toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) and ethanolamines markets, market sentiment is mixed. “Import and domestic prices for India TDI are unchanged from last week, but sentiment is mixed due to positive demand versus the weak rupee/US dollar rate,” a market player said. TDI is primarily used in the production of flexible polyurethane foams, which are widely used in furniture, bedding, and automotive seating. Meanwhile, after several months of decline, ethanolamines’ domestic prices moved higher, with players attributing the sudden rebound on the steep devaluation of the rupee, while demand was stable. For ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and acetone, import and domestic prices have spiked while demand was stable. EVA restocking momentum and discussions have been weighed down by the falling rupee due to higher cost of imports, market players said. “I have not booked yet because of the currency depreciation; import costs have gone up so it has really impacted importers… we'll wait for negotiations with suppliers,” said a distributor. For acetone, fresh import demand is being hampered by the weak rupee amid a prevailing supply surplus in the Indian domestic market. US DOLLAR TO REMAIN STRONG The US dollar remains strong on better-than-expected job growth in the world’s largest economy, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, reducing the chances of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in February. A weaker currency fuels inflation as it raises the cost of imported goods. “The RBI intervened extensively in the FX market last year but the appointment of a new central bank governor last month has raised market expectations of a less active intervention approach to smooth the rupee’s volatility,” Netherlands-based banking and financial service firm ING said in a note on 13 January. “The recent equity market correction, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and overvaluation of the Indian rupee suggest that the rupee will continue to face downward pressure in the near term,” ING added. DEC INFLATION EASES; NOV INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UP 5% India’s inflation rate eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December from 5.48% in the previous month, continuing its decline from 6.21% recorded in October, official data showed. The December figure was within the 2.0% to 6.0% tolerance band set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Easing food prices had some analysts predicting a possible cut in RBI’s repurchase rate as early as February, but the weakness of the rupee could delay adoption of a looser monetary policy. “We maintain our base case for RBI to begin monetary policy easing via a 25 bps points reduction to the repo rate in the upcoming Feb 2025 … meeting,” Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research analysts said in a 14 January macro note. Meanwhile, India’s factory output in November, as measured through the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), rose 5.2% year on year driven by growth in manufacturing activity and power generation. Manufacturing output growth in November accelerated to 5.8% year on year from 1.3% in the same period last year. In April to November 2025, industrial output posted a slower year-on-year growth of 4.1% from 6.5% in the previous corresponding period. India, which is a giant emerging market in Asia, is expected to post a slower GDP growth of 6.6% in the fiscal year ending March 2024, down from 7.2% in the previous year, based on RBI’s projections. Nonetheless, India is still predicted to be the fastest-growing country in Asia, according to ING, which forecasts 6.8% growth for India for the current fiscal year. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Helen Lee, Clive Ong, Shannen Ng, Veena Pathare, Nadim Salamoun and Arianne Perez Thumbnail image: Indian rupee notes – 5 January 2025 (Firdous Nazir/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

16-Jan-2025

Israel-Hamas ceasefire has little impact on chem markets, could trim geopolitical premium

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas announced on Wednesday is unlikely to have much of an impact on crude oil and chemical markets, though it could lower the geopolitical premium. The agreement was reached through diplomacy by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, and will be implemented for the most part by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, US President Joe Biden said in remarks from the White House. ICIS feedstocks analyst Barin Wise said he does not expect that the deal will have a meaningful impact on crude oil markets because the affected region is not oil producing. “This may trim the geopolitical premium in crude since it eliminates a hot spot in the Middle East,” Wise said. “However, if we look at the market today, crude is up big on other factors, more than offsetting any effect the ceasefire may have.” Crude prices surged on Wednesday largely in response to fresh US sanctions on Russia, which the International Energy Agency said could crimp global supply. Futures prices for WTI settled on Tuesday at $77.50/bbl and rose to $79.51/bbl before midday. WTI settled at $80.04/bbl on Wednesday. IMPACT ON SUEZ CANAL TRAFFIC The agreement could help with capacity constraints in commercial shipping as container ships have been avoiding the Suez Canal for more than a year because of attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels. Ships have been forced to use the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which tightened shipping capacity and pushed costs for shipping containers higher. The reopening of the Suez Canal would have the greatest impact on normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route, but would also affect Asia-US rates, as shipping capacity would surge once carriers were able to access the shorter route. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers – such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) – are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Thumbnail image shows a crude oil tanker. Photo by Shutterstock

15-Jan-2025

SHIPPING: Carriers to increase blank sailings on Asia-USWC around Lunar New Year

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ocean carriers will increase blank sailings around the Lunar New Year holiday to support elevated container rates, but now that the labor issues at US Gulf and East Coast ports have been resolved, some analysts think rate growth will slow, or shippers could even see lower rates. Emily Stausbøll, senior shipping analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said spot rates may now begin to fall but warned that shippers still face other supply chain threats in 2025. “Looking ahead, it is likely spot rate growth will now soften on trades into the US from Asia, suggesting a brighter outlook for shippers negotiating new long-term contracts,” Stausbøll said. “Shippers must remain cautious, however, because it will not take much for freight rates to begin spiraling once again, particularly given the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the return of [President-elect Donald] Trump to the White House, which could escalate the US-China trade war,” Stausbøll said. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, defines the four-week Lunar New Year period as the week of the holiday plus the following three weeks. Murphy said carriers have so far scheduled blanked capacity of 9.0%, which is in sharp contrast with the 22.8% blanked in 2024, and the average reduction of 18.3% from 2016-2019. For context, the blanked percentage in 2021 (where pandemic demand was surging) was higher at 10.7%. “Under normal circumstances, this would mean significant blank sailings announcements in the upcoming weeks, since it is highly unlikely that carriers would be satisfied with this level of excess capacity,” Murphy said. “This would result in a situation reminiscent of 2023 and 2024, where significant capacity cuts were made very close to Lunar New Year.” CHANGING ALLIANCES Several major carriers are restructuring alliances in 2025, which is also adding some uncertainty to shipping. Shipping alliances are agreements between carriers to collaborate globally on specific trade routes. This will be the most significant shift in alliances since 2017, according to analysts at freight forwarder Flexport. The changes will see Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) breaking from the 2M alliance with Maersk and will service customers alone with its expanded fleet now the largest in the market. MSC said it will incorporate more direct call services. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will form the Gemini Alliance, with a reduced number of port calls that they say will improve reliability. The Ocean alliance consists of OOCL, Evergreen, COSCO, and CMA CGM. The Premier alliance will be made up of Ocean Network Express (ONE), South Korean shipping line HMM, and Taiwan’s Yang Ming. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said it remains to be seen if there will be any improved service metric from the shifts. “The rollout and adjustment period will probably stretch into March,” Levine said. “This is going to coincide with easing seasonal demand, so it could be a factor that pushes rates down if we do see some competitiveness between the new alliances that they compete for customers.” Levine also said the adjustment period could lead to increased schedule disruptions as vessels are being moved into place for these new services. CEASEFIRE, SUEZ CANAL On a side note, container ships have been avoiding the Suez Canal for more than a year because of attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels. A ceasefire in the Gaza conflict could potentially end attacks in the Red Sea, reopening the Suez Canal. This would have the greatest impact on normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route but would also affect Asia-US rates as shipping capacity would surge once carriers no longer must divert away from the Suez Canal. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Focus article by Adam Yanelli

14-Jan-2025

Seasonal demand lull for US PET expected to end in March

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Bottle-grade US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) demand is currently in a seasonal lull and is expected to continue that way through the end of January and into February. However, demand is expected to pick up in March with healthy orders already for the month, according to market participants. Typically, demand picks up ahead of peak season which runs from Memorial Day at the end of May to Labor Day at the beginning of September, but in recent years, demand has been slow to pick up before the beginning of peak season. Historically, an increase in temperatures pushes consumers to purchase more bottled beverages. PET resins can be broadly classified into bottle, fibre or film grade, named according to the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin is the most commonly traded form of PET resin and it is used in bottle and container packaging through blow molding and thermoforming. Fibre grade resin goes into making polyester fibre, while film grade resin is used in electrical and flexible packaging applications. PET can be compounded with glass fibre for the production of engineering plastics. DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC) are PET producers in the US.

13-Jan-2025

Summary of 2025 Americas Outlook Stories

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030 For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed. OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient. OUTLOOK '25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2. OUTLOOK '25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics. OUTLOOK '25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK '25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply. OUTLOOK '25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates. OUTLOOK '25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule. OUTLOOK '25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures. OUTLOOK '25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US soda ash facing subdued demand US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise. OUTLOOK '25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK '25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases. OUTLOOK '25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route. OUTLOOK '25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications. OUTLOOK '25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports. OUTLOOK '25: US MA facing muted demand expectations US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK '25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. OUTLOOK '25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace. OUTLOOK '25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market. OUTLOOK '25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies. OUTLOOK '25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand. OUTLOOK '25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth. OUTLOOK '25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market. OUTLOOK '25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2 North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.

13-Jan-2025

Latin America stories: weekly summary

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 10 January. NEWS Brazil’s Senator, manufacturers aiming to overturn higher chemicals tariffs, charge against BraskemBrazilian senator Sergio Moro this week rallied plastic manufacturers against the October increase in import tariffs arguing it primarily benefits petrochemicals major Braskem by protecting its sales in the domestic market. Argentina’s chemicals output down 2% in November, outpacing manufacturing fallArgentina’s chemicals output fell by 2.1% in November, year on year, as the sector and peers in manufacturing continue to be one hardest hit by the recession, according to the country’s statistical office Indec. Brazil’s chemicals producer prices up nearly 12% in NovemberBrazil’s chemicals producer prices rose by 11.6% in November, year on year, the country’s statistical office IBGE said on Tuesday. Brazil’s chemicals output falls in November but annual growth at 2.4%Brazil’s chemicals output fell in November by 2.1%, month on month, according to the country’s statistical office IBGE on Wednesday. Brazil’s inflation down slightly but central bank to remain firm on hiking interest ratesBrazil’s annual rate of inflation fell slightly in December to 4.83%, compared with November’s 4.87%, according to the country’s statistics office IBGE on Friday. Mexico’s inflation keeps falling but rate cuts could slow down on global uncertaintyMexico's annual rate of inflation fell more than expected to 4.2% in December, down from 4.5% in November, the country’s statistical office Inegi said on Thursday. Brazil’s November base oils supply exceeds demandBrazil’s base oils supply rose in November as a rebound in imports more than covered for a drop in domestic output. PRICING LatAm PP domestic prices up in Brazil on currency devaluation, higher import tariffDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Brazil on the back of currency devaluation and higher import tariff. This is the first price increase since August 2024. LatAm PE international prices increase on higher US export offersInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed higher due to more expensive offers from the US.

13-Jan-2025

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