Phenol and acetone

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030 For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed. OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient. OUTLOOK '25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2. OUTLOOK '25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics. OUTLOOK '25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK '25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply. OUTLOOK '25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns. OUTLOOK '25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates. OUTLOOK '25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule. OUTLOOK '25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures. OUTLOOK '25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges. OUTLOOK '25: US soda ash facing subdued demand US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up. OUTLOOK '25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise. OUTLOOK '25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK '25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases. OUTLOOK '25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route. OUTLOOK '25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications. OUTLOOK '25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports. OUTLOOK '25: US MA facing muted demand expectations US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK '25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. OUTLOOK '25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace. OUTLOOK '25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market. OUTLOOK '25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies. OUTLOOK '25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand. OUTLOOK '25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth. OUTLOOK '25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market. OUTLOOK '25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2 North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.

13-Jan-2025

LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. 2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY OUTLOOK ’25: Global fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start to 2025 The global fertilizer sector is bracing itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as it starts the year with high operating costs and struggling grain markets, making affordability for farmers and growers a key concern. OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected to drive the ammonia market in 2025 Ammonia players are expecting more supply to come onstream in 2025 which could support a subdued market. OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker closures to shake Europe naphtha market After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of supply dynamics, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical factors. OUTLOOK: 2025 will be critical to Europe pyrolysis oil scalability Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning times and macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively weigh on European pyrolysis oil market growth and investment decisions in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Jet fuel demand poised for take-off despite oversupply worries Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite a potential supply glut. However, much will depend on the airline industry's ability to navigate through economic and geopolitical turbulence and its commitment to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ethanol market could face supply challenges amid demand stability Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of several supply factors that is likely to shape the European ethanol market in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish blending rates Evolving supply factors are set to meet relatively stable-to-low demand in the European biodiesel market for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: More of the same for Europe ethylene, propylene The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024, European ethylene and propylene market players say, and there is very little expectation that Europe’s base case demand improves in any meaningful way in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ethanolamines market 2025 expectations subdued but braced for any supply shocks For 2025, similar underlying demand trends seen in the second half of 2024 are expected to carry across into the first half of 2025 with sentiment to remain broadly subdued. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PE faces triple threat of cost squeeze, overcapacity, longer supply chains European polyethylene (PE) markets face a triple whammy of high local costs, overcapacity globally and the risk of lengthening supply chains at a time when global trade flows are threatened by tariff wars in 2025 OUTLOOK ’25: Economic woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP demand Economic concerns continue to dampen demand expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Africa PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on oversupplied market Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) demand across Africa? OUTLOOK ’25: Positive view for European R-LDPE packaging grades, other sectors face tough start Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI) grades of recycled low density polyethylene (R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will continue to grow in 2025 but construction-related grades may suffer due to low end-use market demand. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide deepens The fragmentation between packaging and non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to continue in 2025, while consolidation risk across the market remains high – particularly for companies heavily exposed to the construction sector. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use demand Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use market across 2024, and this is expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PP players eye pain points from old plants, tariff threats and limp manufacturing 2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different for Europe's polypropylene (PP) market. OUTLOOK '25: Europe Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by mechanical recycling in 2025 Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain weak for as long as overall industrial production remains limited by macroeconomic headwinds. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN set for another year of confined demand Downstream demand constraints brought on by geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe's acrylonitrile (ACN) market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO demand pessimism to continue under the gloom of rising capacities in China There is a growing sense of apathy among players in the European butanediol (BDO) market when it comes to discussing demand hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations of an uptick and there is a prevalence of worry ahead of growing capacity in China in an already oversupplied market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR demand overshadowed by automotive challenges European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand could lift slightly in January on restocking activity, but there are still longer-term concerns over the timeline for recovery of the automotive industry. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ABS and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear as ABS ADD investigation begins Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024 in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) markets, as downstream sectors have continued to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and similar is expected to continue into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX market to see little demand recovery despite lower interest rates The European orthoxylene (OX) market is gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand, in particular from the second quarter onwards. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid downstream rationalizations, imports Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is expected to continue in the first half of 2025 due to the rationalization of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in the region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe CX, capro markets face stable, low demand in 2025 The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam (capro) markets face broadly stable but overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of optimism in key downstream sectors and ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions hit sentiment. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain subdued Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there are similar expectations for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe styrene market squeezed as imports climb, demand feeble The European styrene market is expected to face increased competition and complexity in 2025, requiring players to navigate fragile domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain demand outlook, and rising import volumes. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PS, EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS import competition Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS) market has faced stable demand at a low level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS) demand has been very weak, as ongoing pressures have continued to impact downstream activity in both markets, and 2025 could be similar. OUTLOOK '25: Europe benzene market limps into 2025 as supply surplus, demand uncertainty prevails The Europe benzene market is expected to see generally sufficient supply in the first half of 2025, with tightness likely only in the Mediterranean region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe toluene supply conditions to be in better shape than demand Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in good condition, with similar views for 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to survive The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain in Europe remains in survival mode as consumption is negatively affected by macroeconomics, while costs and logistics remain challenging. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-PET hopes for better year but challenges remain Participants across the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) comes into force in January, but cheap PET, imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and unpredictable consumer spending all pose potential problems. OUTLOOK ’25: European MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand expectations bearish European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply could be more balanced at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second on turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen expectations of a sustained market recovery. OUTLOOK '25: Low but steady demand expected in Europe nylon market Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face ongoing low but overall stable demand in 2025, as key downstream markets are in peril from persistently challenging macroeconomic conditions and low end-buyer demand. OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand may return to growth but unlikely to offset overcapacity The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025 after demand weakness in 2024, but this will be offset by excess global capacity and low utilization rates at existing plants. OUTLOOK 25’: Last caustic soda producer to sit down is out 2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali producers. OUTLOOK '25: Ample supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite import constraints, outages Weak demand was the most significant influence on European acetic acid and derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) conditions throughout 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe AA bracing for ‘more of the same’ for 2025 The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is bracing itself for “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe acrylate esters bracing for continued challenges in 2025 The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing for the challenges of 2024 to continue into 2025, with added geopolitical and economic volatility. OUTLOOK '25: Europe MMA set to see 2024 challenges continue into 2025 The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is bracing itself for the challenges seen in 2024 to continue into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing for stagnant market The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing. OUTLOOK '25: European phenol and acetone markets face demand stagnation and global capacity growth in 2025 Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand, logistics difficulties and volatile feedstocks will all challenge Europe's phenol and acetone markets in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: European refinery solvents to track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends unchanged In 2025, European refinery solvents markets will be pinned to the developments in upstream crude and energy sectors. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride consumption to remain stable in H1 Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe is projected to stay stable at a low level, as persistent challenges that plagued the market in 2024 are expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe EO demand expected to lift slightly in January European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions largely centred around stable-to-soft agreements, depending on starting point and account, at the end of 2024, even as demand is expected to increase in January. OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity expands in Europe MPG, PO markets Players in the European mono propylene glycol (MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO) markets expect familiar challenges, including oversupply and weak demand, will persist well into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe polyols and isocyanates demand recovery handicapped by sluggish downstream markets The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption, with 2025 being held back by slow momentum from major end user sectors. OUTLOOK '25: Slow start to 2025 expected in Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no significant supply concerns A subdued start is anticipated in the European market for propylene glycol ethers in 2025. Price changes are expected to continue to be led by availability fluctuations with few anticipating much demand recovery in the first half of the year and potentially beyond. OUTLOOK '25: Europe butyl glycol ethers market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus remains on availability The outlook for the European butyl glycol (BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a spate of planned maintenances scheduled for Q1, there is not significant supply concern in the main. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to navigate various challenges The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not likely to face an easy ride in terms of demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery in key end sectors, a few lost outlets structurally and with competition from Asia likely to remain strong. OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing, H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance growing European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to those in 2024, with a challenging macroeconomic environment expected to continue crippling demand for most of the year and complex supply scenarios with difficult logistics continuing. OUTLOOK '25: Europe melamine still in survival mode amid poor demand, high production costs European melamine suppliers remain pressured by high production costs and low margins heading into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe IPA and MEK supply to remain ample despite import constraints, capacity consolidation The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by muted consumption and ample availability for most of 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ECH supply rather than demand under the spotlight for 2025 Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather than demand is likely to be subject to more change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted trade flows in response to various trade defense cases and measures. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing high feedstock costs in H1 European oleochemicals face another challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty acids availability versus elevated feedstock costs. OUTLOOK '25: EU epoxy players on the cusp of a new normal, pending EU AD decision EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese and other Asian product, but the prospect of a recovery remains slim. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe paraffin wax market likely to see minimal demand recovery The forecast for European paraffin wax in 2025 is weak, particularly during the first half. The market is expected to face ongoing challenges like those experienced in 2024. OUTLOOK '25: EU ADD leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by weak demand The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any domestic support into 2025, despite profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry, as the underlying demand outlook remains bleak. OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back to health When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly leapt at the chance to move into the government-backed production of explosives, it served as a further confirmation of the deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer maker finds itself in.

13-Jan-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Asia Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. 2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY OUTLOOK '25: Asia naphtha Q1 sentiment upbeat on better demand Asia's naphtha market has rebounded from oversupply and weak demand, with sentiment expected to be lifted higher by gasoline buying interest, refinery maintenance and new cracker startups. OUTLOOK ’25: New C2 capacity in SE Asia may transform landscape While southeast Asian ethylene markets will see – by far – a smaller capacity expansion in 2025 compared to northeast Asia, expansion in the former is already shaping up to be significantly more impactful. INSIGHT: NE Asia C2 oversupply makes for soft landing in 2025 Northeast Asia ethylene markets are facing a wave of new China-led capacities in 2025 that will tip the fundamental scales further into oversupply for the continent. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia, India brace for potentially more ethanolamines from China Participants in southeast Asia and India are bracing for a potential deluge of Chinese cargoes flowing into their markets in the first quarter of 2025. OUTLOOK ‘25: SE Asia PE to see sluggish start to 2025 as slow demand persists The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face a sluggish start to the new year, with strong pricing competition and slow demand likely to guide sentiment. OUTLOOK '25: China PE faces surge in domestic capacity, trade challenges Despite expectations for a mild recovery in China's polyethylene (PE) demand in 2025, supported by the country’s stimulus policies, a supply-demand imbalance is likely to exert pressure on both domestic and foreign PE markets. OUTLOOK ‘25: South Asia PE, PP face supply pressure India’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets are expected to face sustained pressure amid healthy domestic supply. However, strong domestic demand growth is likely to aid market rebalancing to some extent. OUTLOOK '25: Tourism, plant turnarounds, geopolitics to shape Mideast PP/PE markets Weak market demand and an overall bearish sentiment were prevalent in both the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and East Mediterranean (East Med) polymer markets in Q4 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: Demand for premium rPE, rPP cargoes from Asia to gain support from brands Sustainability targets of major brand owners will continue to lend support to the uptake of high-quality recycled polyolefins with certifications, in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Asia C3 poised for sustained capacity expansions, increased spot talks Oversupply has been a running theme for the Asian propylene (C3) market for the past few years, as many C3 plants started up in the post-pandemic period while consumer demand struggled to keep up as economic recovery slowed. OUTLOOK ’25: China propylene market may enter a new cycle on fewer new PDH units expected China’s propylene market will continue to see new units come onstream in 2025, and the market may enter a new phase of structural transformation with the new capacities mainly coming from steam crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply overhang maintains pressure on SE Asia PP market Southeast Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market will continue to see pressure from oversupply, which will lengthen further as new projects in China commence commercial operation. OUTLOOK ’25: China’s PP supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports to continue China's polypropylene (PP) market is expected to become increasingly imbalanced in 2025, driven by continued export growth and a decline in imports. OUTLOOK '25: China BD supply and demand to increase, exports to balance market In 2025, butadiene (BD) capacity in China will expand and supply tightness in the local market is expected to ease compared with 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ACN supply growth to outpace demand, margins under pressure The acrylonitrile (ACN) market is likely to face another challenging year for regional producers with oversupply and competition from China to keep the wider Asia market under pressure. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia BDO remains a buyer’s market amid oversupply The Asia 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market is expected to come under even more pressure, with capacities in China still increasing and demand not keeping up with the expansions. OUTLOOK ’25: China BDO to remain mired in supply glut China's supply surplus in 1,4-butanediol (BDO) is expected to extend into 2025 amid a heavy schedule of new capacities – a situation that is likely to see domestic suppliers press for new solutions. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PBT demand weakness continues, capacities stay idled In 2024, the Asian polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) market saw regional producers facing more competition from China-origin materials due to overcapacity there. OUTLOOK '25: Uneven automotive sector growth weighs on Asia synthetic rubber demand Import demand for various synthetic rubber grades in Asia – from styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR), polybutadiene rubber (PBR) to acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR) – will lean on how recovery and growth of major downstream industries behave. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PX looks to downstream demand growth, gasoline markets The paraxylene (PX) markets in Asia may fare better in 2025 than in 2024 due to capacity expansions in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) sector amid controlled run rates at PX facilities. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MX to face persistent headwinds from lackluster derivatives demand The Asia mixed xylenes (MX) market is likely to see an extension of its existing demand struggles and bearish market sentiment going into 2025, with limited significant fundamental upturn expected in the long run. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia SM market focuses on China exports, contract-spot trade-offs For Asia's styrene monomer (SM) market players, the year 2024 was marked by squeezed margins, slow consumption recovery and a gradually transforming trade landscape. OUTLOOK ’25: China styrene expansion slows, all eyes on trade flows The pace of styrene capacity expansion in China is expected to slow in 2025, with only four units being put into operation including Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals, Shandong Yulong PC, PetroChina Jilin and PetroChina Guangxi. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PS/EPS to see further competition and track SM changes Despite slow global end-consumption recovery for polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS), Asian suppliers’ margins remained at workable levels, with production adjustment and flexible inventory management in second-half 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Asia benzene to begin new year on upbeat note The benzene markets in Asia are expected to rebound in H1 2025 from the traditional slowdown seen in Q4 2024, on the back demand drivers from both the East and the West. OUTLOOK ’25: China benzene to remain tightly balanced, supply growth to lag demand China's benzene market is expected to remain tightly balanced into 2025 on expectations of a rise in both supply and demand, although supply tightness may ease next year compared with 2024. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia toluene market gears up for volatility, demand likely modest Asia toluene markets are bracing for a challenging trading environment, amid anticipated moderate demand in the first half of 2025 and increased supply. OUTLOOK ’25: China toluene seeks export opportunities amid subsiding gasoline demand The average price of China toluene during January-November 2024 fell by around 4% compared to the full-year average in 2023, according to ICIS data. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PET capacity additions to slow; trade flow shift continues Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) new capacity expansions are expected to slow down in 2025, while the global trade flow may shift further with more trade restrictions against Chinese exports. OUTLOOK '25: Asia PTA supply growth to outstrip demand, margins under pressure The purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market is expected to face a challenging year in 2025, with further expansion in supply, while demand is likely unable to catch up with the supply growth. OUTLOOK ’25: China PTA supply glut to increase despite slowing capacity expansion The capacity growth of China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to slow to about 8.3 million tonnes/year in 2025, down from 11.25 million tonnes/year in 2023. The 2024 capacity addition of 7.2 million tonnes/year was also lower than the 2023 level. OUTLOOK ‘25: China MEG market to see limited new capacities, slowing demand growth Planned new China monoethylene glycol (MEG) capacity for 2025 is still relatively limited, and fundamentals may not exert significant pressure, providing some support to the MEG market. OUTLOOK ’25: China DEG supply remains high, cautious outlook for demand Despite a lack of new capacity, domestic diethylene glycol (DEG) output still rose sharply in 2024 driven by improved co-product monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins. OUTLOOK '25: China’s capro self-sufficiency reshapes Asia trade The caprolactam (capro) market in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 saw China achieve self-sufficiency as it shifted its trade status from a net importer to a net exporter. China looks to solidify its position as a key exporter in the region with an additional 600,000 tonnes/year of capro capacity to come online in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: China strengthens position in Asia-Pacific nylon trade The Asia-Pacific nylon market in 2024 saw demand grow largely in the Chinese domestic market due to increased demand for industrial plastics. OUTLOOK ’25: China caps ACN run rates, looks to increase exports The supply of acrylonitrile (ACN) in China's domestic market is expected to increase significantly in 2025, especially because Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (ZRCC) and Sinochem Quanzhou are due to start up new units in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia EDC suppliers to focus on contractual commitments amid suppressed demand Asia's ethylene dichloride (EDC) spot market is expected to remain structurally thin into 2025 due to lackluster downstream performance. OUTLOOK ’25: Mideast PVC trade shifts expected amid India ADDs, China supply growth Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) supply is expected to improve in the coming year with new capacities to the tune of 2 million tonnes slated to come online in China. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia caustic soda demand growth likely to be uneven Asia’s caustic soda spot market holds an optimistic demand outlook for certain markets, but players acknowledge that difficulties remain as market players head into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Producers tweak Asia VAM plants as China supply-demand rebalances Tightening supply is expected to support vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) spot prices in Asia amid differing downstream demand outlooks for China and other major Asia markets. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MMA trade flows shift significantly The winds of change are blowing hard for the methyl methacrylate (MMA) industry in Asia, with market players having witnessed significant shifts in trade flows and price influences in 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: China MMA to face export opportunities amid capacity changes worldwide Global supply and demand growth for methyl methacrylate (MMA) is expected to be roughly balanced in 2025, with capacity growth mainly concentrated in China and the US. OUTLOOK '25: New capacity to weigh on Asia phenol/acetone market Asia’s phenol/acetone to feedstock spread may remain in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive year amid new capacities and a gloomy demand outlook even as the industry undergoes capacity consolidation. OUTLOOK ’25: China phenol to face persistent supply-demand challenges China’s phenol capacity will continue to expand in 2025, but this will meet limited demand increases due to downstream margin pressure. OUTLOOK '25: China's acetone market to see increases in both supply and demand In 2025, both supply and demand for acetone in China are expected to increase, but there are market concerns that issues in some downstream sectors may limit the actual demand growth. OUTLOOK '25: China to dominate growth of Asia EVA supply, demand 2024 marked the year that China shifted to lower imports of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), and 2025 is set to see capacity additions in China increasingly meet demand growth – mainly from the downstream photovoltaics (PV) sector. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PO imports demand likely to weaken further Asia’s propylene oxide (PO) import markets are likely to face further weakening in demand in 2025, with supply in China set to lengthen. OUTLOOK’25: China PO market faces challenge of oversupply China's propylene oxide (PO) capacity is expected to continue to grow in 2025 even as downstream capacity expands. Players largely hold the view oversupply will continue. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia polyols demand outlook mixed but pessimism dominant Demand in the Asian region for slabstock polyether polyols is expected to be flat for the first half of 2025, with the outlook for H2 hazy but largely pessimistic. OUTLOOK '25: Middle East polyols face supply pressures The Middle East polyols markets are expected to remain under pressure in 2025 due to persistent excess supply, relatively weak demand, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. These challenges are compounded by the addition of new polyols and propylene oxide (PO) capacities, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the volatility of upstream feedstock markets. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia isocyanates demand likely hampered, supply lengthy Asian import markets of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diioscyanate (TDI) are set to face lengthy supply in 2025, and the downstream sectors are likely to continue facing headwinds. OUTLOOK '25: Middle East isocyanates face demand, freight challenges In 2024, the isocyanates market in the Middle East experienced significant disruptions in shipping and supply chains due to a prolonged regional conflict. Despite these challenges, imports of polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) increased year on year, while export volumes remained steady. Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) trade volumes were largely stable across both imports and exports. OUTLOOK '25: Asian PC market downturn to persist Asia's polycarbonate (PC) market is expected to remain downbeat in the next quarter as import demand is anticipated to be subdued but supplies will stay persistently high. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia's bisphenol A market faces challenges in 2025 Asia’s bisphenol A (BPA) market will remain hampered by ample supplies and weak demand through the first quarter of 2025 as trade wars impact exports of countries involved in the conflict and further erode consumer confidence. OUTLOOK ’25: China BPA capacity to expand further, export outlets sought New Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) capacities are expected to come into operation in 2025, which may reduce the country’s reliance on imports and help China turn into a major exporter to broader Asia. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s MA demand anticipated to pick up in Q1 on stimulus measures Asia’s maleic anhydride (MA) demand is expected to strengthen in early 2025 on restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. China’s planned economic stimulus measures to boost its domestic economy is likely to lend positive support to MA demand. OUTLOOK ’25: SE Asia to drive phthalic anhydride demand in early 2025 Sellers of lower priced Chinese origin phthalic anhydride (PA) material are expected to focus on southeast Asia post Lunar New Year, where demand is expected to remain firm in the first quarter of 2025. OUTLOOK '25: China plasticizers demand to remain subdued amid ample domestic supplyChina's import market for plasticizers will likely continue to see thin trade in 2025, as demand for imports has steadily dwindled amid ample domestic supplies. OUTLOOK ’25: China 2-EH to face supply-demand headwinds in Q1 China's 2-ethyl hexanol (2-EH) market will face a challenging year in 2025, particularly in the first quarter, as a result of more ample supply and uncertainty in downstream demand. OUTLOOK '25: Asia to become net MIBK exporter in new year An excess methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) capacity emerging in Asia has dampened spot prices in the region and widened the arbitrage for trade across the Atlantic heading into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to balloon on capacity expansion Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip demand on the back of China’s significant capacity growth into 2025, prompting producers to review regional plant run rates and supply contracts. OUTLOOK ‘25: China acetic acid to rely on cost support amid supply growth While China’s acetic acid market experienced fluctuations in 2024 , the mismatch in the growth of upstream and downstream capacities allowed acetic acid suppliers to maintain relatively healthy margins for most of the time. OUTLOOK ’25: China acrylic acid supply to rise, exports and run rates monitored China’s acrylic acid market is expected to see increasing supply in 2025 due to start-ups of new plants, and participants may turn their attention to the export market in the face of weak growth potential in domestic demand. OUTLOOK '25: China NBA supply to remain limited, demand to pick up in Q1 China’s domestic n-butanol (NBA) supply may remain tight in the first quarter of 2025, due to no unit start-up plans, multiple scheduled maintenance outages and low import volumes, while the launch of new downstream capacities may boost demand. OUTLOOK ’25: Lack of demand outlets may limit growth for Asia adipic acid Asia’s adipic acid markets have been through a tough 2024 on both demand and supply fronts. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia LAB remains stagnant, continues to underperform mid-cut fatty alcohols The Asia linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market remained mostly flat in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the malaise in the market looks set to continue into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on upbeat note The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia are expected to start the new year on an upbeat note after festivity-driven trades, amid caution about possible tariffs on exports to the US. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia melamine demand could gain momentum, H2 '25 capacity additions monitored Asia’s melamine market could see some support in early 2025 from improving demand in China’s export market as buyers replenish inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year at end-January. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia IPA margin pressure to persist amid new capacity Isopropanol (IPA) makers in Asia are bracing for a challenging start to 2025 as production margins remain poor and upcoming new capacity in China could disrupt market balance. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia MEK tight supply may ease; cost pressure to persist Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets gleaned support from tightened China supply in H2 December. OUTLOOK '25: Asia glycol ethers face demand headwinds, BG may tighten in Q2 The butyl glycol (BG) markets in Asia could see ample supply against a backdrop of tepid demand in Q1 2025, but supply could tighten in Q2. OUTLOOK '25: Asia ECH, LER oversupply to endure, ADD investigations to shape trade flows Asia's epichlorohydrin (ECH) and liquid epoxy resins (LER) markets will continue to grapple with regional oversupply, while antidumping duty (ADD) investigations of Asian LER makers in the US and Europe will shape trade flows. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia fatty acids demand to remain tepid in Q1 on upstream oil palm volatility Asia’s fatty acids demand for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be tepid, due to volatility in the upstream oil palm complex and weak consumer confidence. OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts in Q1 Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts in Asia are expected to tussle over the market’s trajectory in the first quarter of 2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia glycerine Q1 supply may rise on Indonesia mandate Asia’s glycerine supply may increase in the first quarter of 2025 as Indonesia is poised to increase its biodiesel mandate to B40 in January 2025, up from B35 in 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Asia soap noodles demand tepid in Q1 on upstream volatility Asia’s soap noodles demand is likely to remain tepid in the first quarter of 2025 amid expected continued volatility in upstream crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO) markets. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia FAE demand to remain tepid in Q1 amid squeezed margins Asia’s demand for fatty alcohol ethoxylates (FAE) is likely to remain stable in the first quarter of 2025, but spot offers may be revised up due to squeezed margins. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia Group II/III base oils supply to rise, demand to improve from March An increase in the supply of Asia Group II base oils is expected to gain traction from around mid-2025, with supply of heavy grade 500/600N likely to remain relatively tighter than that of light grade 150N. OUTLOOK '25: Asia Group I base oils to navigate supply tightness Entering into 2025, structural supply tightness of Group I base oils will remain the key market driver.  Where substitution is more likely, such as for SN150 and SN500, price dynamics will also depend on supply length for Group II 150N and 500N. On the other hand, brightstock availability will be a challenge amid supply disruptions in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: China base oils demand unlikely to rebound sharply; imports to fall further Overall demand for base oils in China is unlikely to improve significantly in 2025, because the domestic economy will still face challenges. Base oils imports have been in a downtrend since 2020, and the market share of domestically produced cargoes has been continuously rising, which will extend into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Asia's oxo-alcohols market braces for oversupply, squeezed margins Asia's oxo-alcohols spot markets are poised for a rocky year ahead due to oversupply and weak derivative margins, while a large buy-sell gap between Chinese buyers and Asian exporters will likely lead to more merchant volumes. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia AA, acrylates to see increased competition, slow demand growth The Asia glacial acrylic acid (AA) and acrylates market is going to see capacity expanding at a faster pace in 2025 than the expected demand growth in Asia. OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia etac, butac demand skewed towards conservative in H1 2025 Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) markets are bracing for a challenging demand landscape over the first half of 2025, factoring in supply length and macroeconomic concerns. OUTLOOK '25: Asia chemical freight unlikely to stir in Q1 2025 The chemical tanker market in Asia is expected to soften into Q1 2025, with lackluster demand persisting amid a likely warmer winter in the northern hemisphere. OUTLOOK '25: Asia methanol demand still uncertain amid new capacities The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to be uncertain, with factors such as additional capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming downstream demand expected to play a role in this. OUTLOOK ’25: China’s methanol demand growth may outpace supply increase amid slowing expansion China’s methanol market may remain balanced to tight in the first half of 2025, as supply increase may fall behind demand growth, but domestic and overseas supply are expected to sustain modest growth. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MTBE demand to depend on gasoline, China’s oversupply remains The outlook for Asian methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) remains uncertain, with factors such as added supply in China, volatility in crude prices and demand for gasoline expected to impact market movements in the coming months. OUTLOOK ’25: China MTBE supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports remain key More capacity expansions and a lack of growth in gasoline blending amid sluggish domestic gasoline demand will keep methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) producers in China under heavy pressure to maintain domestic sales in 2025, with exports still their main area for growth momentum. OUTLOOK ‘25: China titanium dioxide makers poised for challenges ahead Players in Asia’s spot titanium dioxide (TiO2) market are set to start the new year with two big questions.

13-Jan-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A surge in new methyl methacrylate (MMA) capacity in China will keep utilization rates depressed during the next few years, even with the recent decision by Mitsubishi Chemical to cancel its proposed project in the US. Mitsubishi said it cancelled its proposed MMA plant because it could not secure enough long-term commitments from customers. The US plant would have been the third featuring Mitsubishi's Alpha process technology, which uses ethylene, methanol and carbon monoxide (CO) as feedstock. Even after Roehm starts up its own ethylene-based MMA plant in the US, the country will have less MMA capacity than at the start of the decade. FLOOD OF MMA IN CHINASince 2020, Chinese MMA capacity has expanded rapidly. By 2028, ICIS expects it will grow by 67% from 2020, adding an extra 1.77 million tonnes/year of capacity. That added capacity exceeds that of North American and Europe combined. Most of the new capacity in China relies on the acetone cyanohydrin route, although some of the other new plants use the isobutylene path. There is even a sprinkling of ethylene-based plants. The following chart shows the growth of MMA capacity in China. Figures are in thousands of tonnes/year. Source: ICIS MMA capacity has grown faster than demand, and the excess is showing up in depressed operating rates. Global MMA utilization rates fell to 61% in 2023, and they will remain in the low 60s through 2028, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. From 2010-2019, global MMA utilization rates never fell below 75%. ROEHM GETS EARLY START ON US MMA PLANTRoehm is also developing a US MMA plant that will be based on its ethylene technology. The plans from Roehm and Mitsubishi were revealed by ICIS in 2019, and their new plants were intended to replace older ones that relied on acetone. The following table compares the capacities of the new plants with the ones that would be shut down. Figures are in tonnes/year. NEW PLANT OLD PLANT Roehm 250,000 160,000 Mitsubishi 350,000 155,000 Source: ICIS While Mitsubishi continued evaluating its project, Roehm proceeded with construction and broke ground in October 2022. Roehm should start up its new plant this quarter. Had Mitsubishi and Roehm both proceeded with their plants, the US would have a surplus of MMA, an unappealing prospect in a market with such a large glut of material. Mitsubishi has closed three plants globally since 2020, and all used the acetone cyanohydrin route. Their 155,000 tonne Beaumont, Texas plant shut in 2021, followed by the 200,000 tonne site in Billingham, UK at the end of 2022 and 110,000 tonnes of capacity in Otake, Japan in 2024. EXPORTING IN AN OVERSUPPLIED MARKETThe outlook for MMA demand will make it more difficult for the market to grow out of its glut. MMA is used in paints, coatings, adhesives and durable goods like displays and automobiles. These applications are sensitive to higher interest and mortgage rates. Consumers tend to buy new appliances when they move. Because mortgage rates are high, fewer people are buying homes and purchasing durable goods made of MMA. Until rates decline and US housing markets recover, many of the major end markets for MMA will remain depressed. Mitsubishi described future demand growth as stable, which is hardly justification for investing in a world-scale plant. Mitsubishi expects to meet immediate MMA demand with its existing plants. ELEVATED CONSTRUCTION COSTSThe Mitsubishi project did have one thing going for it. The plant would have relied on ethylene and methanol as feedstock, and the US holds cost advantages for both feedstocks. The plant's feedstock advantage could give it an edge in an oversupplied market that predominantly relies on acetone as a feedstock. The problem is that the US feedstock advantage is becoming offset by rising costs for material and labor. Chemical plants are competing for parts, labor and materials with a growing number of other industrial and infrastructure projects. In 2023, several US projects faced large cost overruns. Companies building a polyester plant and a sulfuric acid plant put their projects on hold. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows objects made out of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), which is made from MMA. Image by Shutterstock.

09-Jan-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 27 December. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demandUS phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK '25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challengesThe US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffsGrowth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade.

30-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Days before the shock declaration of martial law in South Korea by President Yoon Suk-yeol, political wranglings stalled the 2025 budget deliberations of Asia’s fourth-biggest economy. Opposition DPK wants heavy cut in 2025 national budget Impeachment looms for President Yoon No impact on petrochemical operations/trades “Tensions between the ruling PPP [People Power Party] and main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) have escalated as both sides have been unable to come to a consensus on the budget,” according to BMI Country Risk & Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group in a note on Wednesday. DPK has proposed heavy cuts – to the tune of won (W) 4.1 trillion ($2.9 billion) – to the Yoon administration’s proposed budget of W677.4 trillion for next year, which represents a 3.2% increase from 2023. “As things stand, Yoon’s proposed 2025 budget … faces the risk of being watered down to KRW673.3trn amid strong opposition from the DPK which holds a parliamentary majority,” BMI stated. QUITE AN UNEXPECTED MOVE Most South Koreans, including players in the petrochemical industry, like the rest of the world, were baffled at Yoon’s declaration of emergency martial law late on 3 December. The last time the highly industrialized country in Asia faced martial law was in 1979, and no recent developments in the geopolitical and financial sectors of the country indicated that such a drastic measure would be taken. At close to midnight, Yoon had declared martial law – which meant military rule and curbs on civil rights – on national television noting that it was meant to crack down on pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional order in the country. "Martial law was quite surprising for us to hear because it hasn't happened in the last 40 years," said a soda ash distributor. The declaration of martial law and its withdrawal hours later has thrown South Korea into political instability. It was highly disruptive for market sentiment that for a time, suspension of trading was mulled, but was eventually called off when the martial law was rescinded about six hours after it was declared. South Korea’s Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea assuaged market fears of disruption by offering “unlimited liquidity support” to ensure market stability, immediately after the martial law declaration. The won weakened near two-year lows against the US dollar on 3 December at around W1,440 but recovered to around W1,412 levels as of Wednesday afternoon. The benchmark KOSPI composite index closed off lows at 2,464.00, down 1.44% from the previous day, after falling nearly 2% in intraday trade. “For now, we expect limited implications for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded swiftly by reassuring investors,” BMI said. “Notably, the central bank committed to boosting short-term liquidity and enacting measures to stabilise the FX [foreign exchange] markets, which aligns with our view that risks around the South Korean won, should remain contained for now,” it added. The central bank held an emergency monetary policy meeting on Wednesday morning, with the Monetary Board deciding “to keep all options open and to actively take market stabilization measures until markets are fully stabilized”. In late November, the BoK issued its second interest rate cut in as many months to prop up the economy, while trimming its GDP growth forecasts for this year to 2.2%, and for 2025 to 1.9%. In Q3, the country's GDP growth decelerated to 1.5% from a 2.3% pace set in Q2. The South Korean economy is expected to face added pressure next year amid US threats to impose tariffs on all imported goods. Like most of Asia, the country is heavily reliant on exports, with China and the US as its biggest trade partners. South Korea's export growth in November weakened to 1.4% year-on-year to $56.4 billion, while imports shrank by 2.4% to $50.7 billion, indicating domestic weakness. YOON’S FUTURE UNCERTAIN Calls for Yoon’s resignation is mounting, with lawmakers from DPK saying that if he does not resign immediately, steps will be taken to have him impeached. “We anticipate heightened political uncertainty in the near term. Yoon is now under intense pressure to resign. If he does not, we expect that it is only a matter of time before he is impeached,” BMI said. “If so, we believe Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will step in as interim leader, paving the way for elections to be held within 60 days, in accordance with the constitution,” it added. According to Korean news agency Yonhap, opposition parties – DPK and five others, including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform Party, submitted on Wednesday afternoon a motion to impeach President Yoon to the National Assembly. The motion – which was signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no support from any ruling party lawmakers – will be reported to a parliamentary plenary session on 5 December and then put to a vote on either 6 December or 7 December. South Korea’s law requires that an impeachment motion be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to a plenary session, Yonhap said. Yoon, an inexperienced politician, became the 20th president of the country in May 2022 and is currently serving the third of his five years of office. Previously, he was South Korea's chief prosecutor. In its note, BMI noted that PPP leader Han Dong-hoon had urged Yoon to explain his decision and to dismiss defense minister Kim Yong-hyun, who advised the president to declare martial law “even as the finance and foreign ministers advised against it”. “The silver lining we think is that the swift reversal of the martial law underscores the resilience of South Korea’s institutions,” it said. NO IMPACT ON PETROCHEMICAL TRADESPlayers in the petrochemical industry are monitoring the political developments but noted no immediate impact on the commodities markets. "Politically, [it is] still unstable as the President is getting pressure to resign," a source at a phenol/acetone producer said. South Korea is a major exporter of ethylene, as well as aromatics such as benzene, toluene and styrene monomer (SM). "At this moment the situation has settled down, but we'll see how the government will respond to the issue,” the soda ash distributor said. “From the industrial side there is no huge impact because plants/factories are always running at full capacity so now we don't see any impact," he said. "But long-term impact, we'll need to see how other foreign companies and assets may move out of South Korea," the distributor added. For the time being, players are more pre-occupied with unsteady port operations in Daesan because of heavy winds which are affecting trades and cargo deliveries. Meanwhile, South Korea's petrochemical industry has its own troubles stemming from Asia's overcapacity. In the case of of major player Lotte Chemical, which swung into a net loss of W514 billion in Q3 2024, the company is making big changes to its  portfolio, selling or closing commodities businesses as it refocuses on higher margin specialties. South Korean industries, including chemicals, rely heavily on exports to China, whose self-sufficiency has grown over the years. Insight article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = W1,414) Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang, Jonathan Chou, Evangeline Cheung, Helen Lee, Shannen Ng, Josh Quah and Clive Ong

04-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–PTT Asahi Chemical will cease operations from 1 January 2025, according to the company's parent firms – Thailand's PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) and Japan’s Asahi Kasei on Friday. It operates a 200,000 tonne/year propane-based acrylonitrile (ACN) plant; a 70,000 tonne/year methyl methacrylate (MMA) plant; and a 60,000 tonne/year acetone cyanohydrin unit in Map Ta Phut, Thailand, according to ICIS data. A business withdrawal plan for the 50:50 joint venture company was approved by shareholders on Friday, PTTGC said in a bourse filing.

15-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 1 November. Oil slumps as Mideast supply disruption concerns ease; China data weighs By Jonathan Yee 28-Oct-24 13:05 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices tumbled by more than $4/barrel on Monday morning as fears over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East eased, with sentiment weighed down by a sharp contraction in China’s September industrial profits. Rising China phenol supply to continue to dampen market By Yoyo Liu 29-Oct-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–After hitting a year-to-date high on 10 September, China’s domestic phenol prices fell significantly, especially after the National Day holiday (1-7 October), due to expectations of increasing supply. Long supply, weak demand hound China benzene market By Yoyo Liu 29-Oct-24 15:15 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic benzene prices fell by 15% over a two-month period due to increased supply and a weaker-than-expected demand – market conditions that are likely to persist in November. Asia BDO sees some support from China; long-term outlook uncertain By Corey Chew 30-Oct-24 16:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asia 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market recently saw an uptrend in the local China market due to strict production cuts. UPDATE: Japan's Sumitomo Chemical trims fiscal H1 net loss; eyes LDPE output cut By Pearl Bantillo 30-Oct-24 19:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sumitomo Chemical trimmed its fiscal H1 to September 2024 net loss to Japanese yen (Y) 6.5 billion ($42 million), aided by sales growth of about 5%, while it seeks to rationalize operations to boost profitability. UPDATE: SCG invests $700 million in Vietnam’s LSP ethane enhancement project By Fanny Zhang 31-Oct-24 15:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s Siam Cement Group (SCG) will invest $700 million to pave the way for Vietnam’s first integrated petrochemical complex to use US ethane as feedstock for production. China SM producers regain margins, draw downstream support By Aviva Zhang 01-Nov-24 16:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s non-integrated styrene monomer (SM) plants’ margins hit year-to-date highs on 30 October given widened product price spread over feedstock benzene, with expectations that end-user demand will pick up in November.

04-Nov-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Weak demand continues to be a concern in the European acetone and phenol chain and in the wider chemicals industry and Q4 will remain tough, in view of year-end considerations, but when will demand turn a corner? Europe ICIS editors Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins), Meeta Ramnani (polycarbonate), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate) and ICIS senior analyst Michele Bossi (aromatics and derivatives) discuss current market conditions, in particular demand challenges, in view of residual macro and geopolitical headwinds, although easing interest rates and the trade defense investigation for epoxy bring some hopes and opportunities in Europe. However, global oversupply driven by growing capacity in China, falling deep sea freight rates making imports more interesting again and the need for restructuring actions in PC and regulatory changes are just some of the challenges that the chain is facing. Demand fundamentally weak across markets; Q4 destocking on top Acetone/ phenol length to increase when turnarounds end, on poor demand Some hopes, but no big expectations of recovery for 2025 EU epoxy AD case could support more domestic sourcing in 2025 Global oversupply, Asian exports likely to continue to weigh on the chain Restructuring in Europe PC production BPA ban in food contact materials a blow, but widely expected/prepared for Podcast editing by Meeta Ramnani Podomatic Player Podomatic Player

25-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures tumbled on Wednesday morning as a lack of further economic stimulus measures from the government left investors worrying about demand. At the end of the morning session, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and paraxylene (PX) futures led the slump, with losses ranging from 2.4-3.5%. Market sentiment was also weighed down by crude oil’s plunge overnight, in which both Brent and WTI benchmarks shed more than $3/bbl. In physical markets, spot transactions were sluggish at most petrochemicals, including acetone, butadiene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, upon resumption of trade due to weak demand. China had a week-long National Day holiday on 1-7 October. Futures market gains in the previous session lost steam as market hopes for additional economic measures did not materialize. In a briefing on 8 October, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) – China’s top economic planner – provided no details on how to execute the aggressive measures announced in late September. Market players were initially expecting the government to adopt further fiscal measures to arrest the slowdown of the world’s second-biggest economy. ($1 = CNY7.07)

09-Oct-2024