Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Colombia’s plastics industry is managing to navigate through a turbulent period for the country’s macroeconomics and growing at over 3%, but the cabinet’s fiscal issues and intensifying Chinese imports pose risks, according to the president of trade group Acoplasticos. Daniel Mitchell added plastics in Colombia can consider themselves lucky as growth over 3% exceeds that of the wider manufacturing sectors as well as the overall growth in the country. Mitchell said that, while imports into Colombia continue at pace, the country’s exports have showed particularly strong momentum in the plastic chain – according to Acoplasticos, plastic product exports rose 7% while plastic materials exports surged 15%, effectively compensating for weaker domestic market conditions. Acoplasticos represents the entire plastics value chain, though maintains primary focus on manufacturing rather than commercial distribution activities. FISCAL POLICY ADDS UNCERTAINTY Last week, the Colombian government activated an ‘escape clause’ to the so-called fiscal rule, a clause normally only used in emergencies or calamities, the last time being the pandemic. On this occasion, there is not an emergency per se, but the cabinet is decided to go through with its intention to increase spending ahead of the election. Left-leaning President Gustavo Petro’s electoral program was clear in its aim to expand the welfare state, but as Petro’s term nears its end, that higher spending has been financed with debt rather than regular, tax-led higher income. Activating the escape clause and practically dismantling the rules which had made Colombia a relatively stable economy in Latin America in the past few years will add pressure to investors who are wary of unstable macroeconomics. Chemicals sources said to ICIS last week the measure could increase borrowing costs, as both public and private borrowing became harder due to investors’ distrust of loose fiscal policies. Industry leaders are showing the same concerns. Last week, the main industrial trade group Andi – in which chemicals is represented as well – said nascent, growing investments in Colombia could now be put on hold due to the uncertainty, and Acoplasticos joins that. "We are quite concerned. There are three elements that have come together: the cabinet recently increased withholding tax rates, requiring companies to pay higher advance portions of next year's income tax during the current year. This provides the government with additional, immediate cash flow – but it reduces available resources for the following year: it’s short-termism in a fiscal maneuver which could have profound medium-term consequences,” said Mitchell. “Additionally, the government has indeed activated the ‘escape clause’ for the fiscal rule, effectively allowing breach of established fiscal discipline mechanisms. This decision permits higher government borrowing and increased fiscal deficits, enabling expanded current spending without regard for future fiscal sustainability. “Finally, the third concerning element involves publication of the medium-term fiscal framework, outlining public finance perspectives over the coming years. To add to the previous woes, most analysts think this framework reflects a concerning ‘spend today and don't think much about what will happen tomorrow or in future years’ approach, which greatly undermines confidence in fiscal responsibility,” said Mitchell. These fiscal policy decisions carry significant repercussions for Colombia's financial standing and broader economic stability, Mitchell went on to say, and the deteriorating fiscal outlook is almost certain to increase the country risk premiums, which in turn can lead to higher interest rates for public debt and reducing fiscal space for future policy responses. There are widespread concerns among Colombia economic heads that if the government insists on a looser fiscal policy, credit rating agencies could move to downgrade the sovereign rating, making it more expensive for Colombia to go out to global markets to issue debt. "There is a risk that credit rating agencies will review Colombia's rating and possibly remove our investment grade status and downgrade us in their categories. This scenario would further increase interest rates and limit government borrowing capacity while constraining private sector access to international financing,” said Mitchell. Fiscal discipline – or the appearance of it – is so important and is so absent in Colombia currently that there are concerns the deterioration in the public finances will almost inevitably and quickly depreciate the Colombian peso’s exchange rate, in turn making imports more expensive. This all will be an issue for Colombia’s central bank, who was meant to continue lowering interest rates as the peak of the inflation crisis has been left behind. But the new scenario of rising imports due to the lower peso, sooner or later filtering down to the consumer in the shops, could put a span in the works of monetary policy easing. "Obviously, by maintaining or not being able to reduce interest rates, this affects economic growth, affects investment prospects, buying machinery, buying appliances, buying automobiles, buying housing, which are sectors tied to the chemical sector, to the plastics sector,” said Mitchell. “Currency dynamics present mixed implications for plastics: a depreciated peso increases raw material costs for domestic producers reliant on imported inputs, though it benefits exporters by making their products more competitive in international markets. But, overall, I think currency weakness generally pressures the industrial sector downwards, while economic deceleration reduces domestic consumption." CHINA As well as domestic issues for companies, chemicals and plastics imports from Asia, the Middle East, or the US, continue to present Colombia and the wider Latin America with a near-existential crisis. With lower production costs – via actual lower costs or via heavy subsidies to keep its citizens employed – China is now dumping its excess product in practically all industrial sectors, and chemicals and polymers have been at the center of it. Far from easing, China seems to be sending product at yet more competitive prices, and the competitive pressure continues escalating, gradually but persistently, across most plastic product segments. Mitchell said that while some categories like packaging containers face limited import competition due to transportation economics, virtually all other tradeable plastic products encounter Chinese competition at prices significantly below domestic production costs. Colombia's approach to addressing unfair trade practices maintains a case-by-case methodology rather than implementing broad protective measures such as higher import tariffs. The Ministry of Commerce investigates specific complaints regarding antidumping violations and safeguard measures, with mixed results depending on individual case merits. Recent examples include a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) antidumping complaint filed two years ago that was rejected by the government, while a current antidumping case regarding plastic films remains under review. “These cases reflect ongoing industry efforts to address unfair competition, though without systematic government support for broad protective measures – it has ruled in favor in some cases, it has ruled against in others," said Mitchell. OPEN ELECTON ALSO ADDS TO UNCERTAINTY As Colombia approaches a critical electoral period with congressional elections scheduled for March 2026 and presidential elections in May, the political uncertainty seems to grow rather than narrowing the option as the election gets closer. President Petro's approval ratings hover around 30%, suggesting his party will face electoral vulnerability for the presidential election, as Colombia's second-round presidential system requires majority support exceeding 50% in the first round, or a final round between the two most voted candidates in the first round. However, political dynamics remain highly uncertain with numerous potential candidates and no clear front runner emerging. To add to the uncertainty, Colombians are still reeling from the terrorist attack a week ago witnessed on national television against one of the presidential candidates, right-leaning Miguel Uribe, who remains in hospital in critical condition. Opinion polls would suggest Petro’s time in politics may be approaching its end, but Mitchell reminded a few months in politics can feel much longer, and more so in a very fluid electoral landscape in which there is no clear favorite yet, with several candidates polling at the low double-digits. The second and final round seems more open than ever. "When you look at the government's popularity indices, the logic is that no [they will not revalidate their mandate]. Because his popularity is around 30%, which is not a majority. But obviously everything is very uncertain at this moment, and the truth is that there are many candidates," he concluded. This interview took place over the phone on 13 June. Front page picture source: Acoplasticos Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

16-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 13 June 2025. Asia-Europe VAM trade expansion driven by outages, US tariffs By Hwee Hwee Tan 13-Jun-25 15:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vinyl acetate monomer exports from Asia to Europe are on track for expansion during the second quarter, spurred by a push among traders to take positions before a regulatory quota waiving duties for imports into Europe is exhausted. Crude climbs more than 8% after Israeli strikes against targets in Iran By James Dennis 13-Jun-25 12:33 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Crude prices surged, with Brent peaking nearly $9/barrel higher early on Friday, after Israel attacked targets in Iran, raising fears of a major escalation in conflict in the Middle East and resultant disruptions to crude production and exports from that region. INSIGHT: India’s BIS deadline may reshape global PVC trade landscape By Aswin Kondapally 11-Jun-25 14:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is at a critical juncture in determining whether to implement or extend its Quality Control Orders (QCO) for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin sales under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, with the compliance deadline set for 24 June 2025. Asia crude glycerine offers fall as downstream ECH weakens in China By Helen Yan 12-Jun-25 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Offers for crude glycerine in Asia declined, weighed down by weakness in downstream epichlorohydrin (ECH) market and bearish sentiment. ICIS China Petrochemical Price index May average falls on weak demand By Yvonne Shi 11-Jun-25 13:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's average petrochemical prices in May eased by 0.62% month on month as easing trade war concerns was offset by continued weakness in demand. Indian refineries plan green hydrogen projects worth Rs2 trillion By Priya Jestin 11-Jun-25 12:24 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is currently planning green hydrogen initiatives worth around Indian rupees (Rs) 2 trillion ($23 billion), which include tenders for 42,000 tonne/year green hydrogen production by domestic oil refineries. INSIGHT: India’s BIS deadline may reshape global PVC trade landscape By Aswin Kondapally 11-Jun-25 14:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is at a critical juncture in determining whether to implement or extend its Quality Control Orders (QCO) for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin sales under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) Act, with the compliance deadline set for 24 June 2025. China vessel age limit stalls prompt trades with India By Hwee Hwee Tan 11-Jun-25 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Prompt chemical tanker supply on China’s southbound trade lanes is expected to shrink following regulatory restrictions, constraining spot trades especially with India. INSIGHT: Hydrogen unlocking China's cement decarbonization potential By Patricia Tao 10-Jun-25 17:58 As China steps up efforts to meet its dual carbon targets, hydrogen is becoming a practical and strategic tool to cut emissions from the country’s highly carbon-intensive cement industry. INSIGHT: Countdown to China benzene futures debut: how will it affect the market? By Jenny Yi 10-Jun-25 17:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–On 14 May, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) issued a notice to solicit public opinions on proposed futures and options contracts for benzene along with the relevant rules. The deadline for feedback was 21 May 2025, marking the countdown to the launch of benzene futures and options in China. China's US exports to rebound on front-loading before Aug By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Jun-25 13:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's exports to the US are expected to rebound in June as exporters ramp up frontloading efforts before the 90-day trade truce between the two global economic superpowers expires in August. Asia, Mideast petrochemical markets brace for tough summer By Jonathan Yee 09-Jun-25 11:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tariff concerns and ample supply continue to exert pressure on petrochemical markets in both Asia and the Middle East, with regional demand staying weak, with consumption in India unlikely to pick up until September. INSIGHT: China polyester sector sees production cuts; tight supply boosts PTA/MEG By Cindy Qiu 09-Jun-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyester producers are facing mounting cost pressure, as domestic purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices reaped large gains after the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May 2025) on the back of tight supply.

16-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Tariff concerns and ample supply continue to exert pressure on petrochemical markets in both Asia and the Middle East, with regional demand staying weak, with consumption in India unlikely to pick up until September. Aromatics trade flows shift amid tariff uncertainty Monsoon season weighs on India demand GCC producers upbeat on Syria AROMATICS UNDER PRESSURE AMID TARIFFS In the aromatics market, supply is expected to be tight as increased tariff uncertainties continue `to disrupt traditional trade flows. Mixed xylene (MX) and downstream paraxylene (PX) were in steep backwardation, where in spot prices are higher than futures prices, amid freight constraints and high US demand. Benzene, which closely tracks falling crude prices, continued to underperform its aromatics peers. Benzene from South Korea has not been flowing into the US and were mostly going into China, market sources said. South Korea is a major exporter of aromatics products. Its overall petrochemical shipments in May declined by 20.8% year on year, weighed down by sharp falls in upstream crude prices. For solvent grade mixed xylenes, South Korea exported last month an estimated 50,696 tonnes, of which around 27% was destined for the US, according to ICIS data on 2 June. Strong exports to the US coincide with the start of the summer driving season in the northern hemisphere, when demand for octane boosters like MX and toluene, which goes into gasoline blending, picks up. This strong US gasoline demand expectation is supporting the supply tightness, despite weaker downstream activity in China. Asia’s aromatics tightness is likely to persist through June-August, as market participants adapt to tariff policies and freight cost pressures from front-loading following a trade war truce between the US and China. The US’ 90-day suspension on “reciprocal” tariffs on most countries except China ends on 9 July. A potential escalation of the US-China trade war after the 90-day truce could intensify uncertainties, though a resolution might stabilize flows by late Q3. For shipping, market players are expecting freight rates to start to drop again in July-August. MONSOON ONSET DEPRESSES INDIA PLASTICS DEMAND Prices for plastics in India are under pressure from the monsoon season, as well as more supply coming from China, market sources said. This year’s monsoon season, which typically runs from June-September, arrived eight days early and is projected to bring above-average rainfall, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 24 May. During India’s monsoon period, manufacturing activity tends to moderate, especially the packaging sector as well as the food and beverage sector, weakening end-product demand. Concurrently, domestic supply is ample, pushing down prices for Indian polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE). But post-monsoon season from September, demand is likely to pick up as agriculture and construction sector activity rises and the harvesting season commences. The festive season, which includes the Diwali (Hindu Festival of Lights) running from 18-23 October, is likely to increase demand for end-products such as plastics, hence, boost production leading to the holiday. Demand for chemicals such as PE, PP and PVC and synthetic rubbers is expected to improve after September. India’s strong domestic consumption would shield it from the US-China tariff war, whose impact on the south Asian nation’s petrochemical trades is mostly on sentiment and not on actual demand. China, however, has tried to push more material to India with cut prices amid the US-China trade war, as domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy remained weak. The country is already redirecting PE and PP to Africa and India to offset reduced US access. But this offsetting has eased temporarily due to freight costs more than doubling in recent weeks. GCC SEES RENEWED OPPORTUNITY IN SYRIA In the Middle East, Syria is opening up following a regime change and the consequent lifting of sanctions by both the US and EU. A cargo of wheat arrived at the Syrian port of Tartous for the first time in around 11 years, according to news reports. The opening of Syria’s market – after years of civil war and international sanctions – bodes well for GCC petrochemical producers. The GCC bloc consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Suppliers are looking to increase their trades with Syria, as converters in the country begin running their plants at higher rates, with the possibility of new plants to be built. On 29 May, the Syrian government inked a $7 billion strategic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a consortium of companies led by Qatar’s UCC Holding to develop power generation projects. More such agreements, particularly as trade increases, could pave the way for increased demand in the country for chemicals and chemical products, after civil war disrupted life in Syria since 2011. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Aswin Kondapally, Nadim Salamoun, Jasmine Khoo, Samuel Wong, Melanie Wee, and Angeline Soh. Thumbnail image: At Qingdao Port in east China's Shandong Province, 4 June 2025. (Shutterstock)

09-Jun-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 30 May. NEWS Brazil’s Braskem denies linking PE price increases to antidumping expectationsBraskem has firmly denied it was preparing polyethylene (PE) price increases for June in anticipation of antidumping duties (ADDs) on US and Canadian imports, with a spokesperson at the Brazilian petrochemicals major calling such claims "absolutely unfounded". Brazil postpones decision on US-Canada PE antidumping dutiesBrazil's foreign trade committee Gecex has postponed a meeting where it was expected to decide on imposing antidumping duties (ADDs) polyethylene (PE) imports from the US and Canada Brazil’s PVC prices could pick up on higher ADDs; Argentina and Colombia to benefitSome sources in the Brazilian polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market expect prices to rise between 10% and 15% in coming weeks after the government sharply increased antidumping duties (ADDs) on US material. Mexico announces definitive ADDs on imports of Chinese PETMexico has announced it will impose definitive antidumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from 30 May 2025, according to official news from the China Trade Remedies Information website. Mexico protects domestic industry with revised $195/tonne duty on US caustic soda importsOn 29 May 2025, Mexico's Ministry of Economy published in the Official Gazette (DOF) the Final Resolution of its review of the countervailing duty on imports of liquid caustic soda from the US. Argentina’s manufacturing March output up 4.2%; Milei's party win in local election boosts cabinetArgentina’s manufacturing sectors output rose by 4.2% in March, year on year, below the overall increase in output in the economy at 5.6%, the country’s statistical agency Indec said this week. INSIGHT: Chile’s strong economic data yet to trickle down to chemicals and votersChile’s healthy growth in Q1 surprised on the upside this week, adding to earlier, better-than-expected indicators but all the positive news have yet failed to lift the chances of a governing party set to return to the opposition benches. LatAm’s chemicals faces severe truck driver shortage amid safety concernsLatin America's chemicals transportation sector is grappling with a severe driver shortage, an aging workforce, and mounting safety challenges that threaten regional supply chains, according to industry executives this week. Panama Canal faces capacity challenges as it explores new business modelsThe Panama Canal is working to develop new products and services for different client segments while managing capacity constraints that have affected operations, particularly following the severe drought impacts of 2024, an executive at the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said. Brazil’s Braskem stock shoots up on reports billionaire Nelson Tanure aims to acquire Novonor stakeBraskem’s stock rose sharply in Friday trading after reports citing unnamed sources said Brazilian entrepreneur Nelson Tanure would be seeking to acquire Novonor’s controlling stake at the petrochemicals major. Brazil prosecutors sue China’s EV major BYD for slave labor, human traffickingBrazil’s Public Ministry of Labor (MPT) this week filed a civil action against Chinese automaker BYD and two contractors for allegedly subjecting 220 Chinese workers to conditions analogous to slavery and human trafficking. PRICING LatAm PP international prices increase in Chile, Peru on higher offers from AsiaInternational polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed as higher in Chile and Peru on the back of higher offers from Asia. LatAm PE prices unchanged, discussions shift to JuneDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were unchanged across Latin American countries. Innova announces June PS price increase in BrazilInnova has announced a 10% price increase, excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil, effective 1 June 2025, according to a customer letter.

02-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 30 May. Thailand’s GC deepens focus on specialties amid overcapacity – CEO By Nurluqman Suratman 26-May-25 11:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand's PTT Global Chemical (GC) is deepening its commitments to feedstock flexibility, high-value specialty and bio-based & green chemicals, as CEO Narongsak Jivakanun urges regional coordination within ASEAN to tackle global supply chain disruptions and overcapacity. INSIGHT: Asia oxo-alcohols prices expected to face downward pressure in H2 2025 By Lina Xu 26-May-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s oxo-alcohols market is forecast to face significant downward pricing pressure in the second half of 2025, driven by rapid capacity expansion in China and an uncertain recovery in downstream demand. Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts demand to soften as feedstock PKO declines By Helen Yan 27-May-25 11:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia fatty alcohols market may see a further softening in demand as buyers hold back their purchases, given the decline in the feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) costs in the past month. INSIGHT: China's polyolefins demand shifts towards domestic consumption due to export uncertainty By Amy Yu 27-May-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyolefins demand for 2025 is expected to reach 85 million tonnes, up by 3% year on year, driven by the domestic market in the face of the uncertain outlook of China-US trade negotiations. UPDATE: Japan's Asahi Kasei to discontinue MMA, CHMA, PMMA, SB latex businesses By Nurluqman Suratman 27-May-25 15:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japanese chemicals major Asahi Kasei on Tuesday said that it will be discontinuing its businesses for methyl methacrylate (MMA) monomer, cyclohexyl methacrylate (CHMA), polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) resin and styrene-butadiene (SB) latex. Singapore April chemicals output down 3.2%; H2 2025 outlook firm By Jonathan Yee 27-May-25 15:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore's chemicals production declined 3.2% year on year in April amid tariff-led front-loading, official data showed on 26 May, while a pause in 'reciprocal' tariffs could support further growth in H2 2025. ASEAN leaders voice 'deep concerns' over US tariffs By Nurluqman Suratman 28-May-25 11:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asian leaders at the 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia have voiced "deep concern" over the US' recent move to impose unilateral sweeping tariffs. INSIGHT: India PVC imports brace for monsoon dip, but policy twists could stir the market By Aswin Kondapally 30-May-25 10:02 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) imports are expected to moderate in the coming months due to seasonal patterns, as monsoon conditions typically dampen demand from key sectors such as construction and agriculture.

02-Jun-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem has firmly denied it was preparing polyethylene (PE) price increases for June in anticipation of antidumping duties (ADDs) on US and Canadian imports, with a spokesperson at the Brazilian petrochemicals major calling such claims "absolutely unfounded". In a phone interview with ICIS, the spokesperson also rejected suggestions Braskem had already communicated potential price rises for June on expected ADDs. The spokesperson later confirmed on Friday that Braskem's PE prices would roll over in June from May. The proposal to implement ADDs on PE was brought forward in 2024 by Braskem, who is the sole PE producer in Brazil. The company has had to grapple with higher production costs than peers in North America, where natural gas-based ethane is widely available and has allowed a revival in polymers manufacturing. "The idea that we were putting up prices for May or for June based on a supposed decision regarding ADDs is absolutely unfounded. Braskem is not the one who sets the price: as the market knows, Braskem sets its prices accordingly to competitive market conditions rather than predetermined strategies," said the spokesperson. The company's representative also deemed necessary to distinguish between general import duties, which affect all countries importing into Brazil, and ADDs, which in this case would only target two countries, if Gecex finally deems PE from US and Canada contravened free trade rules. "For this particular case, it would not be the case that all imports would be affected – only the imports that are from the US," concluded the spokesperson. PE imports from the US and Canada represented in 2024 around 75% of all of Brazil's PE imports, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. BUSY WEEK ENDS WITH A ROLLOVERBrazil's policymakers and polymers players leave behind a busy week in which political decisions get mixed with business planning, irremediably affected by the low operating rates at most Brazilian and Latin American chemical plants. Hit by abundant and lower-priced imports, Brazil's chemicals plants operating rates stand at around 60-65%, according to trade group Abiquim, which represents producers. Braskem's statement on Friday sought to clarify several points of the many published this week about Brazil's trade policy, but mostly the claim by market players that Braskem had already decided to increase prices on expectations of ADDs being imposed on US material. It stressed that any future price adjustments would not be related to antidumping measures, "because they are not in place", and argued it was not aware yet of what way June pricing would go. It has been an intense week for trade policymakers, with the foreign trade committee Gecex sharply increasing ADDs on US PVC from 8.2% to 43.7%, despite the US being only the second largest supplier to Brazil, well behind Colombia. Meanwhile, Gecex postponed without explanation a meeting where it was expected to decide on imposing ADDs on PE imports from the US and Canada, planned for 29 May but rescheduled last minute, leaving Brazil's PE market in uncertainty. Latin America has been one of the most vulnerable regions hit by the global petrochemicals oversupply and low prices. As around half of Brazil and the wider region chemicals demand is covered by imports, it is global prices that dictate the domestic pricing policies – a quintessential 'price-taker' status. After a considerable list of protectionist measures have been implemented in Brazil, fears among importers about rising input costs and overall national inflation rates are increasing. Small and large manufacturers up and down the country, which depend on imports for their production, will now face higher bills due to higher import tariffs on several chemicals as well as several ADDs in place for petrochemicals. However, Abiquim has said the measures' influence on inflation would be minimal, adding they are sensible when taking into consideration that they would in part cushion the nation's beleaguered chemicals producers from even lower operating rates or, in the worst-case scenario, plant closures. Additional reporting by Bruno Menini

30-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Moody’s has cut its rating for Sasol from stable to negative on the back of “continued operating performance deterioration” in the face of weak chemicals and oil markets, the agency said on Thursday. The firm, which assesses the creditworthiness of company debt issuance, expects the South Africa-based major’s adjusted debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to grow from 2.2 times to 3.0. “The weak performance of Sasol's chemical business during the last 18 months has been characterized by falling prices, subdued demand, and continued capacity growth,” Moody’s said in a ratings note. “This has resulted in high levels of asset impairments as well as continued margin deterioration.” Sasol recently set out a performance programme to improve operational performance, with its chemicals business substantially underperforming peers over the last few years. “Performance over the last four years has not lived up to our own expectations,” said Sasol CEO Simon Baloyi, speaking earlier this month. Earlier this year, the company booked a South African Rand (R) 58.9 billion ($3.3 billion) impairment on its chemicals Americas ethane value chain as a result of softer market conditions, as well as R5.3 billion on its Africa polyethylene chlor-alkali and polyvinyl chain and R7.8 billion on its Secunda, South Africa, liquid fuels refinery. The company has also set out plans to mothball or close four units across its US and European operations by the end of the calendar year 2025, due in most cases to high costs and little expectation of a substantial market recovery. Moody’s projects that Sasol’s EBITDA margin will fall to 20% in 2025 and 2026, compared to 22.5% in 2024 and 25% in 2023. “Sustained low oil prices will result in challenges in Sasol's fuels business, however, the company's hedging program will partly mitigate the downside risk,” Moody’s said. Sasol had not responded to requests for comment at the time of publication. Thumbnai; photo: Sasol's headquarters in Sandton, South Africa (Source: Shutterstock)

29-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A US court ruled on Wednesday that the president cannot impose global tariffs under an emergency act, a judgment that would void many of the tariffs that the nation imposed in 2025 against nearly every country in the world. The administration of US President Donald Trump filed a notice that it was appealing the ruling. Under the judgment issued by the US Court of International Trade, the US has 10 calendar days to withdraw the following tariffs: – The 10% baseline tariffs against most of the world that the US issued during its so-called Liberation Day event on 2 April. These include the reciprocal tariffs that were later paused. The US issued the tariffs under Executive Order 14257, which intended to address the nation's trade deficit. – The tariffs that the US initially imposed on imports from Canada under Executive Order 14193. These were intended to address the flow of illicit drugs. The US later limited the scope of these tariffs to cover imported goods that do not comply with the nations' trade agreement, known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). – The tariffs that the US initially imposed on imports from Mexico under Executive Order 14194. These were intended to address the flow of immigrants and illicit drugs. Like the Canadian tariffs, these were later limited to cover imported goods that did not comply with the USMCA. – The 20% tariffs that the US imposed on imports from China under Executive Order 14195, which was intended to address the flow of illicit drugs. The US imposed these tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives the president authority to take actions to address a severe national security threat. To justify the use of the IEEPA, Trump declared that the trade deficit, drug smuggling and illegal immigration constituted national emergencies. If the ruling stands, it would remove the tariffs that the US has imposed on many imports of commodity plastics and chemicals. By extension, the ruling would remove the threat of retaliatory tariffs that other countries could impose on the nation's substantial exports of polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other ethylene derivatives. The court's order does not cover the sectoral tariffs that the US has imposed on specific products such as steel and aluminium. In addition, it does not cover the Section 301 tariffs that the US imposed against Chinese imports during Trump's first term. These tariffs were intended to address unfair trade practices. RATIONALE BEHIND THE COURT'S JUDGMENTThe US constitution delegates the power to impose tariffs to congress. Although congress has delegated trade authority to the president, it had set clear limitations that allowed the legislature to retain the power to impose tariffs. The IEEPA does not delegate unbounded tariff authority to the president, the court said. "Any interpretation of IEEPA that delegates unlimited tariff authority is unconstitutional." The authority that congress delegated to the president under IEEPA is limited and does not include the power to impose any tariffs, the court said. COURT FINDS NO EMERGENCYEven if the president could impose tariffs under IEEPA, the trade deficit does not constitute an emergency, the court ruled. The US already has a statute to address trade deficits under Section 122. "Section 122 removes the president’s power to impose remedies in response to balance-of-payments deficits, and specifically trade deficits, from the broader powers granted to a president during a national emergency under IEEPA by establishing an explicit non-emergency statute with greater limitations," it said. In addition, the court found that drug trafficking and illegal immigration fail to meet the emergency threshold established under IEEPA. To meet that threshold, the emergency must have a substantial part of its source outside of the US and it must pose a threat to the nation's national security, foreign policy or economy. Also, the emergency must be unusual and extraordinary. The action that the president takes must deal directly with the threat. The court found that the tariffs fail to directly deal with drug trafficking and illegal immigration. While they may provide the US with leverage to negotiate agreements, such leverage does not meet the threshold of addressing the emergency at hand. The lawsuit was filed in the US Court of International Trade by the plaintiffs VOS Selections, Genova Pipe, Microkits, Fishusa and Terry Precision Cycling. The case number is 25-cv-00066. Thumbnail shows containers, which are used in international trade. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

29-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil's foreign trade committee Gecex has postponed a meeting where it was expected to decide on imposing antidumping duties (ADDs) polyethylene (PE) imports from the US and Canada. The decision has created uncertainty in the country's PE market, which widely expected the ADDs to be implemented from June. In a note on its website, Gecex stated the “meeting will be rescheduled” but offered no further details. A spokesperson for Gecex said to ICIS it did not have any further information to offer. Gecex's meeting this week planned to discuss its investigation into allegations by Braskem, Brazil's sole PE producer, that US and Canadian producers are exporting PE to Brazil below fair market value. According to market sources, Braskem had already been communicating to customers price increases on the back of the expected ADDs. A Braskem spokesperson later confirmed on Friday that Braskem's PE prices would roll over in June from May. Earlier this week, Gecex increased ADDs on US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) from from 8.2% to 43.7%. Gecex is also investigating potential polyethylene terephthalate (PET) dumping from Malaysia and Vietnam, following ADDs proposals by Indorama and Alpek. The plastics transformation sector in Brazil said ADDs in place and those potentially implemented in the near future increase costs for all major thermoplastic resins, raising input costs for manufacturers. Meanwhile, the trade group representing producers Abiquim said the low operating rates across the country’s chemical plants were partly a result of unfair global competition, and fully supported ADDs being imposed on US and Canadian PE. Front page picture: Port of Santos in Sao Paulo, Latin America’s largest Source: Port of Santos Authority (recasts, adds paragraph 7 with comment from Braskem; clarifies last paragraph)

28-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil has approved plans to raise antidumping duties (ADDs) on polyvinyl chloride (PVC) imports from the US from 8.2% to 43.7%. The decision, taken late Tuesday, implements one of Brazil’s highest ADDs rates. The sharp hike in duties was taken after a proposal filed in 2024 by local polymers major Braskem and caustic soda and chlorine derivatives producer Unipar, Brazil’s main PVC producers. “The proposal to increase in ADDs applied to imports of suspension polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin originating in the US was granted, due to a change in circumstances, from 8.2% to 43.7%,” said Gecex, Brazil's body in charge of foreign trade. Gecex is also investigating potential polyethylene (PE) dumping from the US, a proposal brought forward by Braskem, as well as potential polyethylene terephthalate (PET) dumping from Malaysia and Vietnam, following proposals by Indorama and Alpek. The plastics transformation sector in Brazil has said ADDs in place and those potentially implemented in the near future are increasing costs for all major thermoplastic resins, raising input costs for manufacturers. Unsurprisingly, the trade group representing producers Abiquim has said the fears about higher costs due to ADDs “do not hold up” when taking into account a beleaguered chemicals production sector with historic low operating rates.

28-May-2025