Energy

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysian state energy giant PETRONAS is shedding 10% of its workforce by the end of the year to navigate challenging operating conditions, primarily driven by falling crude prices. Some 5,000 staff to be affected by the ongoing "right-sizing" process will be notified by the end of this year, PETRONAS president and CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik Tengku Aziz was quoted as saying by state media Bernama. The company chief held a press briefing in Kuala Lumpur on 5 June to make the announcement. "PETRONAS 2.0 will be run differently, organized differently, will have different work processes, and to move towards that, we will have to correct the work process," he said. The company did not immediately respond to ICIS’ queries on the job cuts. PETRONAS aims for a lean and nimble operation, even if oil prices were to reach $100 per barrel, Muhammad Taufik said. "There is a logic, an assumption set, and a projection that backs it up. Over time, we have seen this—those who have tracked our history will know that when the fields were easier, our profit before tax margin was around 35 to 40 per cent," he said. "Today, it is [between] 25% and 38%. These margins are going to shrink further … So the value-added (PETRONAS) 2.0 has to transform into an organization that monetizes molecules commercially and competitively, not just at home, but also abroad," he said. In 2024, PETRONAS reported a 32% year-on-year decline in its after-tax profit to Malaysian ringgit (M$) 55.1 billion ($13 billion), as revenue fell by 7% due to lower average realized prices. Its petrochemicals arm – PETRONAS Chemicals Group – had a 30.7% slump in net profit over the same period to M$1.18 billion, despite a 7% increase in sales to M$30.7 billion. PETRONAS' budget is predicated on Brent crude trading between $75/barrel and $80/barrel. Currently, the crude benchmark is hovering near $65/barrel, marking a roughly 13% decrease year on year, influenced by global trade tensions and increased output by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+). ($1 = M$4.23) Thumbnail image: PETRONAS Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – 15 March 2025 (Md Rafayat Haque Khan/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)

06-Jun-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US spiked again this week – and have almost doubled over the past four weeks – as demand has surged ahead of the possible reinstatement of tariffs while capacity remains tight. Supply chain advisors Drewry said the latest sudden, short-term strengthening in supply-demand balance in global container shipping has reversed the trend of declining rates which had started in January. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles spiked by 57% this week while rates from Shanghai to New York jumped by 39%, according to Drewry and as shown in the following chart. The drastic increases are seen from other shipping analysts as well. On the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), the Shanghai-USWC rate rose by 58% to $5,172/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), the largest week-on-week percentage gain since 2016 as strong demand has coincided with tight supply, though capacity is increasing as carriers resume previously suspended services and reinstate blank sailings. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy said almost 400,000 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) are coming back online in the near term. “If we aggregate it across June/July for Asia-USWC, then in June, the lines are increasing capacity 12.8% compared to before the tariff pause, and in July, the capacity injection is increasing to 16.5% compared to the pre-pause situation,” Murphy said. “Capacity has also ramped up sharply compared to just a week ago, with this injection of capacity equaling 397,000 TEU across the two months.” The growth in capacity is shown in the following chart from Sea-Intelligence. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said the spike is likely because shippers are so concerned about getting goods moving during the 90-day window that they are willing to pay more. “Right now, it seems carriers are telling shippers to jump, and some are replying ‘how high?’,” Sand said. “This will not last because capacity is heading back to the transpacific and the desperation of shippers to get supply chains moving again will ease once boxes are on the water and inventories begin to build up,” Sand said. “Spot rates are expected to peak in June before downward pressure returns.” Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos have yet to capture the dramatic increase, but Judah Levine, head of research at the company, said 1 June general rate increases (GRIs) are starting to push daily prices up sharply. “Rates have spiked 72% to the West Coast since last week to $4,765/FEU and 44% to the East Coast to $5,721/FEU, with more increases likely and additional hikes announced for mid-month,” Levine said. Analysts at US logistics platform provider Flexport said they expect a further rush of cargo from southeast Asia to the US West Coast toward the end of June. Flexport analysts expect carriers to be back to full capacity on the transpacific eastbound trade lane by the end of June, noting that week 23 capacity is 11% below standard levels but is expected to exceed standard levels by 3% by week 25. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were mostly unchanged. However, rates decreased from the US Gulf to Europe. The USG to Rotterdam route is overall steady as weaker demand is being offset by limited availability, particularly for larger parcels. Larger requirements are well represented, with several larger lots of methanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and caustic soda fixed or indicated to the ARA. There was also some interest in sending some smaller lots of glycols and styrene. From the USG to Asia, the uptick in interest to rush glycols to beat the deadline to China seems to have all but ended as the market saw only a few new inquiries. On the other hand, several larger parcels of methanol were either fixed or quoted to the region. As contract of affreightment (COA) volumes are being firmed, and due to the absence of market participants, freight rates have eased some, with more downward pressure on smaller parcels. On the USG to Brazil trade lane, the market has been steady, leading rates to remain unchanged week on week. There was a stable level of spot activity with only a handful of new requirements. Overall, the market remains slow despite several cargoes being quoted and fixed. Despite the uptick in inquiries there is not enough significant activity that would suggest any increase in demand, with caustic soda, glycols and styrene the most active. The regular owners have space remaining and are trying to fill space while supporting current freight levels. Activity typically picks up during summer months, but this is not currently being seen. As a result, freight rates are now expected to remain steady for the time being. Focus story by Adam Yanelli Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

05-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s revised real GDP shrank by 0.2% on-quarter, unchanged from advanced estimates in April, the first on-quarter contraction in nine months, central bank data showed on Thursday. Exports fall 0.6% on drop in chemical products GDP growth forecasted at 1.0% – OECD US trade negotiations, economic policy on new president Lee’s agenda Real GDP growth shrank 0.1% year-on-year in January-March 2025 amid political turmoil from a martial law declaration as well as US tariffs, the Bank of Korea (BoK) said in a statement. Both manufacturing and exports decreased by 0.6% quarter on quarter, mainly on drops in production and export of chemical products as well as machinery and equipment. Private consumption decreased by 0.1% as consumers spent less on services such as recreation, sport, and culture, while government consumption remained at the same level as the previous quarter. South Korea elected its new president Lee Jae-myung on 4 June, ending six months of chaos wrought by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law, Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Market Research said in a note on 4 June. His immediate goals will be to boost the economy and “restore livelihoods” while balancing US trade negotiations with China relations, as the two world’s largest economies continue talks towards ending a trade war. Lee has until 8 July, when a 90-day suspension on 25% “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will be lifted, to negotiate a US trade deal. A supplementary spending package worth 0.1% of GDP, or won (W) 13.8 trillion ($10 billion), was approved by the government in May, while Lee has announced an economic task force to boost growth. Talks have been ongoing since April but with no definitive result due to South Korea’s presidential void. The country announced a snap election on 8 April after Yoon was impeached and removed from office. “Despite external uncertainties, the domestic outlook may start to pick up after the presidential election,” UOB said, forecasting a 1.0% GDP growth for 2025. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects the South Korean economy to recover in 2026, projecting growth by 2.2% in 2026, it said in a report on 3 June. However, the BoK sharply lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 0.8% from 1.5% previously, warning that tariffs and economic uncertainty would lead to weaker exports. “Going forward, domestic demand is expected to recover modestly but at a slower pace, while exports are expected to slow further due to the impact of US tariffs,” the BoK said on 29 May. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Thumbnail image: Mandatory Credit: Aerial view of a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan (Source: YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

05-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)– South Korea has elected Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) as the country's new president, six months since ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol imposed an hours’ long martial law on 3 December 2024. Lee secured 49.4% of the votes cast on 3 June, beating the 41.2% garnered by his rival Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (PPP). Lee was proclaimed winner by the National Election Commission on Wednesday and will take office immediately, with no transition period. The snap election was called after Yoon's impeachment. During a speech after his win, Lee pledged to revive the economy and recover people's livelihoods. Other policy focuses of the new administration include a more balanced foreign policy relationship between China and the US, investments in AI and technology, and a focus on renewable energy, said Michael Wan, analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research, in a note on Wednesday. Also high on the new administration’s agenda will be trade negotiations with the US, a deadline for which has been set for 8 July, right before ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on South Korean goods take effect.

04-Jun-2025

BARCELONA (ICIS)–As chemical producers gain access to more renewable energy and portfolios evolve, distributors and downstream customers can look forward to a growing amount of low carbon, low fossil-content products. Distributors can help communicate sustainability data up and down industrial value chains Full life-cycle analysis required to truly measure a product’s environmental footprint Vital to have standard measurements for carbon footprint Chemical industry has a 25-year innovation cycle, more investment needed to accelerate this Wave of low carbon products expected in next 2-3 years Azelis is sticking to its environmental targets Customers drive demand for more low carbon products Renewable energy will cut fossil content of distributor product portfolios Smaller chemical companies drive low carbon innovation in Asia Reshoring will drive national or regional chemical value chains In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Michael Heite, group sustainability director for Azelis, John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Click here to enter the ICIS Innovation Awards. Closing date 12 June.  Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

03-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–European energy prices have been on a pretty wild ride in first five months of the year, with gas prices initially spiking in early February, before a subsequent dramatic slide and partial recovery. So, what does the second half of the year have in store? In this Q&A analysis, ICIS experts lay out their expectations for European gas, power and carbon markets, shedding a light on: -Gas and power demand -The potential impact of Trump tariffs -EU gas storage targets and replenish challenges -The global LNG situation and the impact on European prices -The impact on Europe of Asian gas demand -Expectations for EUA and UKA developments -Whether power emissions will increase in 2025 -Geopolitical threats from Russia and the Middle East -The role of speculators in carbon and gas markets -Whether we are bullish or bearish for European gas, power and carbon prices -The threats that we are most concerned about

02-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–InterContinental Energy (ICE), developer of the world’s largest planned hydrogen project, could cut the premium of renewable ammonia over carbon-price-adjusted grey ammonia by more than 50%, ICIS data shows. Speaking to ICIS at the World Hydrogen Summit 2025 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, ICE co-founder and chief executive officer Alexander Tancock explained to ICIS that the company’s large-scale hydrogen projects could produce hydrogen at $3/kg or ammonia at $650/ton. ICE projects are some of the largest renewable energy and hydrogen projects on earth. The company is developing three projects, two in Australia – Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) and Western Green Energy Hub (WGEH) – and one in Oman called Green Energy Oman (GEO). The combined potential hydrogen output from all three projects, once built, would be 8.4 million tons of hydrogen per annum (MTPA), 0.5MTPA more than total hydrogen consumption combined across the EU 27, the UK, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland in 2023, according to the Clean Hydrogen Observatory. CUTTING THE GREEN PREMIUM WITH LOW-COST AMMONIA Taking into account freight costs for Australia to Germany of $155/ton, sourced by ICIS on 28 May, ICE $650/ton renewable ammonia could theoretically land in Europe with a delivered cost of $805/ton. Comparatively, ICIS assessed its carbon-adjusted ammonia (the emissions from grey ammonia are covered by the carbon price) into north-west Europe price at $524/ton on 22 May. The resultant premium of the renewable ammonia production from ICE’s future projects over carbon-adjusted ammonia based on today’s spot market would be $281/ton. Tancock told ICIS that the company intends to produce first molecules by 2032, meaning the premium is likely to change over the next seven years as the ammonia sector adapts to the energy transition – and the EU carbon price potentially rises. However, considering ICE’s renewable ammonia against alternative sources already discussed in the market, the company’s projections offer market participants a new look at the premium sustainable projects could hold as the market develops. Comparatively, in July 2024 H2Global announced the winner of its pilot auction, where Fertiglobe bid a delivered price of renewable ammonia of €1000/ton ($1130/ton). The German H2Global program procures international volumes of hydrogen or hydrogen derivatives with the ambition of re-selling them on the European market. Hintco, the coordinator of H2Global, noted at the time that it anticipates prices to be lower in the future due to supply-chain efficiencies and scaling of the hydrogen market. Fertiglobe deliveries are guaranteed from 2028, around four years ahead of when ICE could produce its first molecules. ACHIEVING LOW COSTS Although Tancock explained that the ammonia production would likely serve the Asian market, the market information is nonetheless a sign of potential cost reductions. Tancock explained several key components behind the projects that ICE is developing which supports lower-cost hydrogen and ammonia. When selecting a location, Tancock said that it would ideally have “lots of wind, lots of sun…ideally wind at night, sunny during the day, because that would then give you a much higher capacity factor… We looked for political stability, a track record of delivering huge infrastructure projects, finance, proximity to markets…the Middle East and Australia [are] markets where all of that comes together”. He said that there are other locations where these things come together, but ICE chose to focus on Australia and the Middle East. “If you look [at] how long it takes to permit a project in Australia, it’s five-to-seven years…Europe, it can be even longer, US as well.” Timing is another key element to reducing costs. “Any large project takes a really long time because of permitting process, design process. The other thing is, there’s a real decline in the cost curve right now of equipment, whether it’s wind, solar or electrolysers.” Tancock believes that the cost curve is slowing for wind and in solar, but that “it’s still quite steep in electrolysers”. Therefore “the ideal time to start bringing on really large projects will be the 2030s, because if you bring them on too early, you’re sort of locked in quite a high cost base”. ICE aims to bring its electricity-generating capacity online ahead of its electrolysers. Tancock explained that ICE will try to sell electricity to local offtakers and that “there should be some announcements later this year about [selling the projects’ power supply]” as two of them are located near to industry, providing energy-intensive offtakers. Another key component of lower-cost hydrogen and ammonia supply is the ICE patented P2(H2)Node system. The ICE nodes operate on the basis of co-locating electrolysis plants with wind and solar, removing the need to either connect to or build electricity transmission lines, and also through removing any losses that come as a result of using high-voltage lines. Reduced infrastructure due to co-location and reduced need for electricity transmission systems account for a 10% reduction in capital expenditure and a 10% increase in efficiency. READY DEMAND AND OFFTAKE STRUCTURES ICE intends to deliver its first electrons before the end of the decade and first molecules potentially in 2032, Tancock said. Supporting such timelines is the clear identification of demand and offtakers. For its ammonia, ICE is considering selling from its WGEH project into markets such as Korea, Japan, Singapore and China, where Tancock noted shipping as a potential offtake sector. However, some of the primary offtake will be local to the projects themselves. “If you look at our two projects in Australia, the northern project is sitting in the Pilbara, which is the world’s biggest iron ore producer. And just to put statistics on that, 800 million tons a year come out of the Pilbara. If we turned all 26GW [of our project’s capacity] into green iron, we would [cover] 4-5% of that…You would need about 600GW to decarbonize the Pilbara.” Similarly, for ICE’s project in Oman, Tancock explained the proximity to Europe as a benefit, but expanded to say that “Oman is currently…a trans-shipment location for iron ore. So, they import iron ore and turn [it] into pellets, which then get exported,” he said. Oman is currently seeking to decarbonize its export iron pellets, which the ICE GEO project could support and sell into. Nonetheless, Tancock noted that offtake is still the key issue for the development of projects. “The technical aspects all bring challenges, but they’re solvable. In that sense, it’s really questions about offtake,” he said. “So it’s about bringing the costs of our energy down, and then discussing with strategic offtakers who are looking to offtake in the 2030s and beyond.” ICE is currently in discussion with potential offtakers, Tancock explained, stating that on the molecule side “we’ll be signing those in 2027, 2028, so we’re working towards those offtakes at the moment”. Project developers speaking to ICIS regularly consider both the duration of offtake agreements and the total percentage of the project’s output that they would sign under a long-term deal. For ICE, Tancock stated that its projects’ output would need to be entirely contracted. “In the moment, I can’t see us doing much merchant. Now, you know, some people will say ‘oh we could do 80% contracted, 20% merchant,’ [but] all [of] that [is] to be seen…But I would anticipate it’ll be 100% allocated.” When discussing duration, Tancock said that the ideal would be “very long term” but that it’s unlikely to be achievable at the moment, although “those are conversations that are ongoing”. Reflecting on contracting, Tancock explained that he believed there is a role for governments to support. “You will see governments come in a little bit to help facilitate some of these earlier offtakers.” “They did it for LNG, they did it for [nuclear power]. They’ve done it for renewables. They’ve done it for oil and gas. So I think you will see that,” he said. “The first LNG shipments were all backed by very long-term offtakes…20-year offtakes.” GOVERNMENT MANDATES Expanding on the role of governments, Tancock highlighted that obligations for renewable or sustainable products were the right direction for the market to go. Discussing renewable energy, Tancock said that this was driven by government demand, penalties etc. However, Tancock noted that “the harder part we have with molecules is molecules tend to be traded a lot…The molecules come from here and they’re there. So that’s the trickier part we’re facing now when we’re trying to introduce green molecules…how do you, on an intra-regional and intercontinental level, manage that flow? Because if the benefits are flowing through to Oman, why would the German taxpayer keep paying?” As a solution, Tancock drew from recent successes with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), stating “this [the IMO] is a global regulator who’s now put a global tax [on its stakeholders]”, meaning “no country pays, and no country suffers more than anyone else”. For hydrogen and ammonia, “things are happening,” Tancock said, such as the development of green corridors between different countries. “Until we get that, it’s very difficult to see sustained demand in some sectors…IMO is game changing. I think the IMO will show, is showing, that it can be done, but it will take now coordination,” Tancock said.

02-Jun-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 30 May. Brazil’s PE market assumes ADDs on US, Canada material to be imposed from June Brazil’s polyethylene (PE) sellers this week are encouraging customers to bring forward purchases on the assumption that the government is to impose antidumping duties (ADDs) on US and Canadian material from June. US ethylene market braces for supply ramp-up as demand stays unsettled After a heavy turnaround season that began in January, the US ethylene market is preparing for a wave of fresh output that threatens to tip the sector back into oversupply as demand continues to face economic and trade policy headwinds. Brazil postpones decision on US-Canada PE antidumping duties Brazil's foreign trade committee Gecex has postponed a meeting where it was expected to decide on imposing antidumping duties (ADDs) polyethylene (PE) imports from the US and Canada. UPDATE: US trade court rules against Trump's emergency tariffs on global goods A US court ruled on Wednesday that the president cannot impose global tariffs under an emergency act, voiding all but the sectoral ones that the nation imposed against nearly every country in the world. INSIGHT: Court ruling to remove nearly all US chem tariffs imposed in 2025 A court ruling will leave the US some room to impose tariffs on imports of plastics and chemicals, but if it remains in place, it will eliminate virtually all the duties that the country imposed on those materials – opening the way for other countries to lift their retaliatory tariffs imposed on the nation's substantial exports of petrochemicals. Appeals court allows US to maintain chem tariffs The US can maintain nearly all the plastic and chemical tariffs it imposed this year after an appeals court granted on Thursday the government's request to stay the judgment of a lower court. Tricon Energy emphasizes ability to pivot quickly in face of tariff volatility – CEO In an increasingly volatile and uncertain world with a constantly changing US tariff regime throwing fuel on the fire, agility to adjust and pivot is more important than ever for a global chemical distributor, said the CEO of US-based Tricon Energy.

02-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's petrochemical shipments declined by 20.8% in May while its semiconductor exports surged, official data showed on 1 June. Petrochemical exports in May fell largely due to international oil prices falling below $65/barrel, which caused a fall in petrochemical unit prices by 13.8% from 1-25 May, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) said in a statement. The country's overall exports fell by 1.3% year on year to $57.2 billion in May – the first year-on-year decline since January – while imports fell by 5.3% year on year to $50.3 billion. “Exports to both of our key markets – the US and China – declined, and it appears that US tariff measures are affecting the global economy as well as South Korea’s exports,” said Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Duk-geun. Semiconductor exports recorded their second-highest performance of all time as demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products increased, rising by 21.2% year on year to $13.8 billion in the month, while automobile exports fell by 4.4% year on year. By region, exports to the US, the world’s largest economy, fell by 8.1% year on year amid tariffs imposed on the country. Exports to China, the second largest economy in the world, fell by 8.4% on drops in petrochemical and semiconductor shipments. A broad 10% US tariff has been in effect since early April, while higher tariffs, including a 25% duty on South Korea, are currently suspended for 90 days. However, the US on 31 May threatened to double steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% from 25% currently. In response to the US tariffs, Ahn said South Korea’s government would work with their US counterparts on a “mutually beneficial solution”, while also implementing tariff response vouchers worth won (W) 84.7 billion ($61.7 billion) ($1 = W1,373.70) (recasts lead and paragraph 8 for clarity) Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

02-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in May remained below the expansion threshold of 50.0 but was up from the previous month amid a pause in the US-China tariff war. Official PMI contracts for second straight month Trade-war pause lifts demand China Q2 GDP to post 4.9% annualized growth – UOB The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the world’s second-biggest economy inched up to 49.5 in May from April’s reading of 49.0, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. Trade tensions between with the US eased in May following an agreement between the world’s two biggest economies to suspend tariffs on each other until August. China is a major importer of petrochemicals whose self-sufficiency has been growing over the years due to strong capacity expansion. “Some US-related companies reported that foreign trade orders were restarted at an accelerated pace, and import and export conditions improved,” NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said. The official manufacturing PMI surveys large state-owned enterprises. Both production and demand in May improved compared with the previous month’s, indicating an acceleration in both manufacturing and new orders, according to the NBS. Production index rose to 50.7 in May from 49.8 in the previous month, while new orders index inched up to 49.8 from 49.2 over the same period. Production of equipment, high-tech and consumer goods improved, registering readings above 50. China’s non-manufacturing PMI, comprising services and construction, eased to 50.3 in May from 50.4 in April, nudging up the composite PMI (which includes the improved reading for manufacturing) to 50.4 compared with the previous month’s 50.2. OUTLOOK In a research note on Monday, economists at Singapore-based UOB Global Markets & Research said the trade truce would provide “some near-term support for [GDP] growth”, which is projected at 4.9% for Q2. However, UOB added that the growth pace would slow to 4.2% year on year in the second half of the year amid continued uncertainty over ongoing trade discussions between the US and China, as well as where the tariff rates will land eventually. “China’s stimulus will lend further support to stabilize its outlook,” said UOB. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a port in Qingdao City in Shandong, east China on 27 May 2025. (Shutterstock)

02-Jun-2025