Energy

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl continued to make its way west toward Mexico and the US Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, with landfall possible some time on Sunday. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl was about 125 miles (205 km) east southeast of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic, and moving west northwest at 22 miles/hour. Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) The storm is going back and forth between a Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane as maximum sustained winds are at 155 miles/hour but had been at 165 mile/hour earlier in the day. According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Winds Scale, a storm reaches Category 5 when maximum sustained winds reach 157 miles/hour. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/hour 2 96-110 miles/hour 3 111-129 miles/hour 4 130-156 miles/hour 5 157+ miles/hour The most recent forecast indicates Beryl could miss southern Veracruz state in Mexico, where Braskem Idesa has its integrated polyethylene (PE) Ethylene XXI complex and where a lot of Mexico’s petchem capacity is located. Altamira is still in the projected path. The regions have been experiencing a drought and rainfall from Beryl could provide the area with much-needed rain but could also impact operations at the multitude of chemical facilities in the area. Another scenario would be if the storm swings to the north, which could threaten oil and gas production in the US Gulf as well as Gulf Coast petchem operations. A producer with capacity in the Corpus Christi area said it was still too early to decide on operations. ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON The early activity in the Atlantic Ocean is in line with forecasts calling for a busier than usual hurricane season. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting the greatest number of hurricanes in the agency’s history. NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center said that the hurricane season – which started on 1 June and runs through 30 November – has an 85% chance to be above normal, a 10% chance of being near normal and only a 5% chance of being below normal. Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation's plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. Additional reporting by Mark Milam, Al Greenwood and Melissa Wheeler

02-Jul-2024

RIO DE JANEIRO (ICIS)–In just a few years, global automotive majors have switched their focus from a quick, all-electric production to a more hybrid model, an executive at US crude oil major Chevron said on Tuesday. Chris Castanien, global industry liaison at Chevron and lubricant additive expert, said that most automotive majors who had set up target to go all-electric or nearly all-electric by 2030 have dropped those plans as intake among consumers remains slow. This has happened even after authorities in North America or Europe have poured “tremendous amount of money in trying to force everyone” into the energy transition. Castanien was speaking to delegates at the 14th International Summit with the South American Market 2024 organized by specialized publication Lubes em Focus, which focuses on base oils. ICIS is a partner in the event. BILLIONS – BUT THE JUMP IS NOT HAPPENINGAnyone in the lubricants industry would be pleased to see the initially quick transition to electric mobility some authorities had planned is not happening – they are an interested party which would lose out much if ICE engines – combustion engines – ran on fuels would go out of the market. Therefore, Castanien was somehow pleased to list the many plans in the EU and the US which had planned for a quick electric vehicles (EVs) implementation, including the US’ $1 trillion New Green Deal in 2021 or the consequent $67 billion investments contemplated in the CHIPS Act or the $369 billion in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). “The US’ EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] had forced a ruling that by 2032 around two thirds of cars should be EVs; the EU issued a ban on ICE engines by 2035 – well, I think those targets will not happen,” said Catanien. “Moreover, now we are seeing a lot of protectionist tariffs against Chinese EVs: we want people to make and use EVs, but we don’t want the Chinese to make them.” The Chevron executive went on to say that the US is still a “long way” to meet its own targets on charging points, for instance, which added to the considerably higher cost of EVs is putting off consumers. And this consumers’ reluctance, he went on to say, is even happening when many jurisdictions are implementing fiscal incentives and rebates for EVs. “In the US, you even get the case of California, where HOVs [high occupancy vehicle lanes] are now allowing EVs even if it’s only the driver inside the car…” he said. Thus, the initial change planned by automotive majors – even with thousands of redundancies of ICE engines engineers – is giving way to a slower implementation of the EV push and mentioned the case of Germany’s major Mercedes. “Only a few years ago, Mercedes said they would be making all vehicles electric by 2030 – they don’t say that anymore. Their updated target is aiming to make 50% of its fleet electrical by that year,” said Castanien. “[US major] Ford has said it is losing $64,000 every time they sell an EV. Tesla was planning a gigafactory in Mexico: they have dropped those plans. The shift towards more hybrid vehicles and not purely EVs is happening – this is a big change.” The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which make up more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Base oils, also called lubricants, are used to produce finished lubes and greases for automobiles and other machinery. The 14th International Summit with the South American Market 2024 runs in Rio de Janeiro on 2-3 July.

02-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Inflation in the eurozone resumed its downward trend in June, falling to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, according to official data on Tuesday. The rate of inflation has been ticking down consistently over the past few months, with the exception of May which saw a 0.2 percentage point increase from April. June’s annual inflation was mainly driven by services, followed by food, alcohol & tobacco, non-energy industrial goods and energy, statistics agency Eurostat said in its flash estimate, which is subject to revision. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rates for the first time since 2019 on 6 June as inflationary pressures broadly eased.

02-Jul-2024

UPDATED: On 27 June 2024, ICIS updated this analysis to include a review of the impact that manifesto pledges could have on UK power prices On 24 June 2024, ICIS updated this analysis to include a review of the renewable capacity pledges from manifestos and their likelihood of being met On 21 June 2024, ICIS updated this analysis to include a breakdown of the impact of new gas licenses on British gas supply On 20 June 2024, ICIS updated this analysis to include the Scottish National Party's manifesto plans for energy. The manifesto table now includes these details Initial analysis published with detailed table reviewing energy policies from announced manifesto pledges, original analyses covering nuclear power and gas-fired power generation, a UK election special episode of the ICIS Hydrogen Insights podcast LONDON (ICIS) — On 4 July 2024 the UK public will elect a new government, but what do the different parties have in store for energy? The following analysis reflect core pledges from manifestos and reviews those pledges in detail using ICIS data and insights. This analysis of UK political pledges and announcements will be continuously updated by the ICIS energy editorial team. Lead authors include: UK power reporter Anna Coulson, British gas reporter Matthew Farmer. UK ELECTION PLEDGES UNLIKELY TO IMPACT POWER PRICES UK power prices out to 2030 could remain relatively unchanged regardless of which party wins the UK election ICIS analytics forecasts UK power prices to range between £46-85/MWh in 2030 LONDON (ICIS)–UK power prices could remain relatively unchanged to 2030 regardless of which political party wins in the UK’s general election on 4 July, ICIS analysis shows. The development of the power market and new capacity faces continued hurdles, despite numerous parties intending to rein in energy prices according to their manifestos. An analysis of the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green Party, Reform UK, Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru manifestos shows that all parties present different policies aimed at helping manage energy bills. Some policies presented by the main parties suggest direct consumer initiatives, such as Labour’s plan to issue grants and loans for insulation, or the Green Party policy pledge to develop an insulation scheme, or the SNP’s financial relief for consumers in the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. However, some policies seek to address the wholesale power market through measures such as new licenses for gas-fired power generation or the build-out of renewable capacity. Renewables, volatility and risk Broadly speaking, energy policies proposed by UK parties present three different paths. Firstly, there are policies focused primarily on expanding renewable capacity as ageing gas-fired and nuclear power plants are decommissioned. Such policies would lead to periods of lower power prices, but balancing this would drive more volatility across short-term power prices. This pathway is most closely resembled by the Green Party, which has ambitious targets for renewable deployment by 2035. As the party plans to phase out existing nuclear power and stop the development of new plants, this would increase price volatility as nuclear would no longer operate as a baseload source of generation. The Green Party’s manifesto did not specify a timeline for the nuclear plans; therefore, it is difficult to determine when this could affect UK power prices. However, the party states it would rapidly expand energy storage capacity, which would balance renewable energy intermittency, although more detailed plans are not specified in the party’s manifesto. The SNP also intends to develop renewable energy, outlining “significant growth” in renewables alongside expansion in storage for energy. The Liberal Democrats also lean towards renewable development but present a decentralized approach when considering solar. The party would seek to build solar panels on new homes, therefore reducing power demand for residential offtake. A more central approach can be seen from both the Conservative and Labour parties, which both present clear plans for renewable growth, but also consider building new nuclear capacity or, in the case of Labour, also extending the life of the existing nuclear fleet. Furthermore, the Labour party intends to maintain a strategic reserve of gas-fired power plant which could limit price volatility but would result in higher power prices linked to natural gas prices. The Conservatives plan to build new gas power stations which would also reduce price volatility but would create an even stronger link to gas prices. However, the party’s manifesto did not state how much capacity would be added and when, therefore it is hard to determine when this could impact prices. Finally, the third pathway is presented by Reform UK, which presents plans to fast-track small-modular reactor (SMR) build out for nuclear capacity while reviewing the potential for tidal power, both baseload generation-supporting activities. Further, with the party’s intention to explore new UK gas field licenses, gas-fired power supply could remain in the mix into the future. ICIS analyst view Despite multiple power market pledges, the potential for manifesto points to translate into price movements appears limited, according to ICIS analyst Robbie Jackson-Stroud. Jackson-Stroud notes that the development and construction of new capacity, such as gas-fired power plants, requires time to agree upon at a policy level, plan and then construction. Adding to this, “cost constraints in the current climate are the driver of investment in renewable capacity, and a change of party does not shift that,” he added. Regardless of the party to come out as winner of the 4 July elections, there may simply not be enough time to deploy new capacity for wholesale power prices to ease, be that renewables or fossil-fuel based generation. Considering the challenges facing parties in delivering power-market change ahead of 2030, it is unlikely that they would present notable shifts to forecasted power prices before the next decade. ICIS long-term power data indicates that in 2030, depending on the development of the carbon price, UK power prices are expected to range between £46-85/MWh. In comparison, ICIS price assessments show that the UK power front-month baseload price averaged £66.62/MWh between January to June this year, which is £49.34/MWh lower than the same period last year. The drop in price is due to more stable market conditions this year in the UK and on the continent. UK PARTIES COULD STRUGGLE TO MEET RENEWABLE CAPACITY ELECTION PLEDGES – Added to analysis 24 June 2024 UK parties unlikely to meet capacity targets Key to onshore wind would be change to regulation Offshore wind could struggle following recent CfD round LONDON (ICIS)–For the UK general election, Labour, the Conservatives and the Green Party are the only three of the main parties to present outright capacity targets for renewable energy deployment across their manifestos. However, ICIS data and analyst insight suggests that meeting such targets could face difficulties due to recent setbacks in the UK’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) bidding process and restrictive regulation for onshore wind. The Labour party manifesto states it will double onshore wind, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind by 2030. To present an idea of this, ICIS has multiplied its forecasted capacity for these technologies in the UK by the end of 2024 by their respective factors according to Labour’s pledges. Actual intended capacity may vary. ICIS had contacted the Labour party for comment but received no response by the time of publication. Onshore wind Labour plans to double onshore wind capacity by 2030, while the Green Party would deploy 53GW of capacity by 2035. The Liberal Democrats would ‘remove the Conservative’s unnecessary restrictions on new wind power’, likely referring to the requirements the current government introduced in 2015 and changes to the law in 2016. Planning policies were updated in September 2023 to allow locations suitable for new wind farms to be identified in several ways, rather than only in the area’s development plan. However, decisions continue to be made by local planning authorities which differs to the process for other infrastructure projects where decisions on major projects are made by the Secretary of State. The current government does not have an onshore wind capacity target and the Conservative’s manifesto has no mention of one however, it does state that the party will ensure democratic consent for onshore wind. ICIS analytics forecasts 25.85GW of onshore wind capacity in 2030 and in 2035, under a base case scenario, which is below Labour and the Green Party’s targets. ICIS analyst, Robbie Jackson-Stroud, stated that planning permission is one of the main challenges onshore wind projects face. “Costs for turbines have also risen and so they are then squeezed into a CfD funding pot where they have to compete with solar”, he added. Jackson-Stroud noted that onshore wind could be a key component to the development of renewable capacity in the UK, changes to regulation permitting. “One aspect that is likely to change is regulation and approval of onshore wind projects, which require less budget and time to build. However, it is difficult to envisage a new government being timely enough to sufficiently improve the approval process and have enough projects apply to shift onshore capacity before 2030. It should be noted, however, how much potential a change to regulation would have to long term capacities, and you can expect more capacity in the 2030s”, Jackson-Stroud said. Offshore wind The Conservatives, Labour and the Green party all position offshore wind as a key technology to support the decarbonization of the UK’s power system. However, achieving such targets appears difficult following an unsuccessful fifth auction of the CfD scheme in 2023, in which there were no bids for offshore wind amid a low strike price. The current government increased the strike price for the upcoming sixth auction round, raising the maximum strike price from £44/MWh to £73/MWh. Jackson-Stroud highlighted the difficulty facing the next wave of auctions when considering 2030 targets. “Both parties [Labour and the Conservatives] have pledged unachievable targets without a huge budget increase for the CfD. Taking into account the time it takes to build offshore wind sites (that are getting increasingly larger on average) there are only two CfD auctions at most that can fund capacity to come online by 2030. “There is roughly 27GW of offshore wind already under CfD, under construction or operational, suggesting the need for a further 23GW across two auctions, which would be a record at a time where costs are higher than they have ever been. While the budget for the latest round has been raised to an all-time high of £800m for offshore and £1.2bn total, this would still procure only 12GW of wind in even the most conservative estimates. "This means regardless of Labour increasing 2030 targets for offshore, even the 50GW already in place will not be met, and a change of party doesn’t change the blockers to this," Jackson-Stroud said. ICIS analytics forecasts that offshore wind capacity will be 39GW in 2030 under a base case scenario, therefore falling short of the Conservative and Labour party targets. Similarly, offshore wind capacity is forecast to be 48.04GW in 2035 under a base case scenario, well below the Green Party’s target. Solar Labour plan to triple solar capacity by 2030, while the Green Party and Conservatives have set targets for 2035, 100GW and 70GW respectively based on manifesto and recent policy announcements. However, reaching such targets may prove challenging based on recent CfD results. ICIS analyst Matthew Jones previously noted that for the UK to meet its 70GW by 2035 target, CfD capacity awards would need to average 4.5GW/year. However, over the last two CfD rounds, just 2.2GW was awarded in each. Further, ICIS analytics forecasts 42.97GW of solar capacity by 2030, and 48.54GW by 2035, under a base case scenario, therefore missing the Labour, Conservative and Green Party targets. Since the closure of the renewable obligation and feed-in tariff schemes, the CfD scheme is the only subsidized route to market for solar. The forecast models cited in this story are available as part of ICIS Power Foresight. If you would like to learn more about ICIS Power Foresight, please contact head of power analytics Matthew Jones at Matthew.Jones@icis.com UKCS LICENSING – Added to analysis 21 June 2024 Several parties have committed to end the issuing of new licenses for extraction of oil and gas on the UK continental shelf (UKCS), however ICIS analysis shows the inclusion of new licenses may have a minimal impact in mitigating output decline. Gas production on the UKCS started declining in 2000, but held steady during the 2010s. It currently accounts for approximately 40% of Britain’s gas supply mix, with the bulk of remaining volumes coming through Norwegian imports and LNG. From the late 2020s, UKCS production is expected to decline by approximately 6% per year. Licenses on new discoveries would not reverse the decline in British production expected in coming years. However, they would have accounted for another 0.80 billion cubic meters (bcm) of British gas production in 2030, increasing to 1.5bcm in 2035. In contrast to the other parties, the Conservatives and Reform UK have committed to annual licensing rounds and “fast-track” licenses, respectively. Both have done so with a justification of maintaining British energy independence, citing the rising price of energy caused by the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. GAS-FIRED POWER DEMAND LIKELY UNMOVED Both the Conservatives and the Labour party show support for the continued use of gas for power generation, bolstering a key area of demand for British gas market participants. However, of the two parties, the Conservatives presented a more bullish mentality by noting intensions for new gas plants, aligning with previous announcements to support new capacity. Labour meanwhile take a muted approach, noting the need for a strategic reserve of gas for power generation. Both Labour and the Conservatives have therefore presented policy that could reduce power-market price volatility as renewable capacity grows, with gas offering baseload generation at periods of low renewable output. Gas demand for power to remain From a gas-market perspective, the use of gas for power amounts to a large share of overall demand. In 2023, gas offtake for power accounted for 26% of total gas demand. The UK is heavily reliant on gas-fired power generation, with it contributing 26% of the UK’s electricity mix in the period 1 January to 31 May 2024, according to data from National Grid. Similarly, gas-fired generation provided an average 36.3% of the mix over the 2019-23 period, therefore making a significant contribution to the UK’s electricity stack. While the capacity of new gas generation is not mentioned in the Conservative party’s manifesto, ICIS analytics forecast data indicates that gas capacity is set to increase through to 2026, under a base case scenario. This would suggest that offtake for power generation could well remain a key share of overall gas demand under either a Conversative or a Labour government. Further, ICIS data shows that there will be 7.92GW of gas capacity in 2050 under a base case scenario, which itself raises uncertainty around the prospect of pledges to decarbonize power grids by around the 2030s. NUCLEAR Nuclear power represented a large focus for the Labour, Conservative and Reform UK parties, which each announced plans to increase nuclear capacity through a mix of measures, such as plant life extensions, new large-scale projects, or Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Despite this, the overall pledges presented for the election suggests need for further capacity build-out in the run up to 2050 in order to meet the government's target. While the Conservative’s manifesto did not mention a specific nuclear capacity target, the current government has a target to reach 24GW of nuclear capacity by 2050. ICIS analytics forecasts that, under a base case scenario, nuclear capacity will be 12.76GW by 2050. Plant life extensions Although Labour’s manifesto did not provide details on which nuclear plants it intended to focus on for life extensions, or for how long, the intension is in line with former market announcements from EDF, which stated plans in January 2024 to extend the lives of five UK nuclear plants. EDF plans to invest an additional £1.3bn in these power stations over 2024-26, with the aim to maintain output from the four advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGR) for as long as possible, and for the Sizewell B plant to operate for an additional 20 years. The lifetimes of the four AGR stations would be reviewed by the end of 2024. New capacity From a new capacity perspective Labour pledged to get the 3.2GW Hinkley Point C project over the line and that new nuclear power stations, such as the 3.2GW Sizewell C project, will play a key role in helping the UK to achieve energy security and clean power. In January, the Conservatives announced plans for a new large-scale nuclear power plant, which would be as large as Hinkley Point C or Sizewell C, which are both 3.2GW in capacity. The current government announced in May that Wylfa would be the preferred site for this new plant however, a commissioning date is still to be confirmed. This aligns with the party’s manifesto pledge to deliver a new gigawatt power plant at the same location. The new plant in Wales could well boost UK nuclear capacity, but it would still present a capacity gap between the current ICIS forecast for 2050 and the government’s target of 24GW. Small modular reactors Labour, the Conservatives, and Reform UK all mention SMRs in their manifestos however, the Conservatives will approve two new fleets of SMRs within the first 100 days of the next parliament. This is likely through the competitive process that Great British Nuclear (GBN) launched in 2023 to select SMR technologies best placed to be operational by the mid-2030s. GBN plans to announce successful bidders for the competition by the end of 2024 and to take two SMR projects to a final investment decision by 2029. However, it must be noted that SMRs are a new technology, and none are commissioned yet in Europe.    HYDROGEN In this UK general election special, ICIS hydrogen editor speaks with Rob Dale, founder and director of UK consultancy Beyond2050, which aims at supporting market participants in achieving their energy and sustainability goals. Over the course of the episode, Jake and Rob review which parties have committed to hydrogen for the election and what makes this election the biggest for hydrogen so far.

02-Jul-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl, already a major Category 4 storm, is making its way toward Mexico, but it remains too early to tell where it will ultimately make landfall. Beryl is now the earliest Category 4 storm on record in the Atlantic. The previous earliest was Hurricane Dennis on 8 July 2005. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said as of 1900 GMT Beryl was about 60 miles (100km) west northwest of Carriacou Island with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles/h and moving west-northwest at 20 miles/h. Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) Late-cycle track guidance from the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP) shows the different tracks based on various models in the image below. Source: Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP) If the storm continues to move to the west, it could threaten Mexican facilities in Veracruz state, which is in the south of the Bay of Campeche. Also in the region are the major port city of Coatzacoalcos and Braskem Idesa’s integrated polyethylene (PE) Ethylene XXI complex. Beryl could also make landfall near Altamira, which has been experiencing a drought and could provide the area with much-needed rain but could also impact operations at the multitude of chemical facilities in the area. Another scenario would be if the storm swings to the north, which could threaten oil and gas production in the US Gulf as well as Gulf Coast petchem operations. Beryl is expected to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday but the storm is unlikely to affect the chlor-alkali chain. Jamaica is home to a number of large alumina refineries that consume significant volumes of US caustic soda, used to refine alumina from bauxite, or aluminium ore. ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON The early activity in the Atlantic Ocean is in line with forecasts calling for a busier-than-usual hurricane season. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting the greatest number of hurricanes in the agency’s history. NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center said that the hurricane season – which started on 1 June and runs through 30 November – has an 85% chance to be above normal, a 10% chance of being near normal and only a 5% chance of being below normal. The prediction of 17-25 named storms is the highest ever, topping the 14-23 predicted in 2010. A storm is named once it has sustained winds of 39 miles/h. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/h 2 96-110 miles/h 3 111-129 miles/h 4 130-156 miles/h 5 157+ miles/h Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation's plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana. In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution. Additional reporting by Al Greenwood, Kelly Coutu, Bill Bowen

01-Jul-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 28 June. NEWS Brazil Unigel falls short of tolling deal for ammonia plants – Petrobras Petrobras has alleged that Unigel has failed to meet the terms of their tolling agreement for the production of ammonia at two idled plants, the Brazilian state-controlled energy producer said on Friday. Brazil’s Cibra inaugurates new plant in Matopiba Cibrafertil Companhia Brasileira de Fertilizantes (Cibra) has inaugurated a greenfield plant in Sao Luís, Maranhao, the Brazilian fertilizer company has announced. Saudi Arabia, South America offer promising opportunities for base oils Markets such as Saudi Arabia and countries in South America hold potential for growth in the years ahead, industry sources said on Friday. Mexico’s central bank keeps rates unchanged at 11% as inflation ticks up The Banco de Mexico kept on Thursday the main interest rate benchmark unchanged at 11% after the annual rate of inflation has increased since February. Argentina GDP down 5.1% in Q1 but sentiment rises again in May Argentina’s recession may have bottomed out in the first quarter, with a GDP fall of 5.1% year on year, as a leading indicator for economic activity rose in May for the third month. Plant status: Chemours resumes TiO2 production at Mexico plant US producer Chemours has resumed operations at its Altamira, Mexico titanium dioxide (TiO2) facility after it was forced to reduce them due to water shortages in the area. PRICING LatAm PE domestic prices lower in Argentina on weak demand Domestic polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as lower in Argentina while being unchanged in other Latin American countries.

01-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Tell me what you think about Net Zero and I will tell you who you are – has become a zeitgeist of the energy sector and society at large in the past decade or so. After all, “science has settled” on man-made climate change, the media have certified this as “fact” and activists in their teens and eighties never let us forget about the dangers with actions that scream louder than words. Those who doubt the wisdom of the day have generally remained politically correct and silent. Under pressure from environmentalists and politicians, industry heavyweights have been changing their strategies, brand names and allocation of resources towards green projects, which – after all – come not only with moral high ground but also hefty subsidies. EIB’s REPowerEU+ initiative in July 2023 increased the bank’s original renewable energy financing targets by 50% to €45 billion until 2027 . “This additional financing is expected to mobilise over €150 billion in new green investments, helping Europe cut its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050,” the EIB statement said. Private banks have also been keen to distance themselves from the dirty business of fossil fuels that currently cover about 80% of global energy demand. However, several headlines in the past few days have signalled that companies and banks may be cautiously changing their tune in order to deliver on their shareholders’ expectations. In its Climate Change Statement in February Barclays’ bank pledged to “focus on clients actively engaged in the energy transition”. The bank had earmarked $1 trillion to Sustainable and Transition Finance by 2030. On 25 June, Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan told Bloomberg the global economy cannot go “cold Turkey on fossil fuels”.  According to the article, Barclays is moving away from coal and oil, but Venkatakrishnan pointed out that “the reality is that for quite some time, fossil fuels will be with us” as he singled out natural gas as the transition fuel on the long path to cleaner energy. Just two days later Reuters reported that investors are pushing BP to rethink its approach to offshore wind and oil and gas projects in order to improve the bottom line. BP told ICIS it may still consider bidding for offshore wind future opportunities but its ultimate focus is “on value, strict discipline, and meeting our investment criteria”. Environmentalists were quick to condemn BP for “choosing profits over people and planet” . But one could also argue that a job of a business is to make profit offering products that meet people’s needs. Those who speak in defense of fossil fuels do not deny concerns about the environment, they speak against catastrophizing those concerns to scare people into adopting green policies. Alex Epstein, founder at Center for Industrial Progress and the author of two books on energy argues that “speculated climate changes would be slow and thus affordable to adapt to — while rapidly eliminating fossil fuels would make billions far poorer, including more endangered by climate.” One of Epstein’s main arguments is “climate mastery”. “Huge benefit we get from fossil fuels is the ability to master climate danger … which can potentially neutralize fossil fuels’ negative climate impacts.” In his book “Is Reality Optional?” US economist Thomas Sowell said: “Much of the social history of the Western world over the past three decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good.” Human florishing is not possible without affordable and reliable energy. Let us chose what works.

28-Jun-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Most chemical prices have stabilized, and a few are posting small rises, a trend which should strengthen in coming quarters as global manufacturing picks up, executives at US-headquartered adhesives producer HB Fuller said on Thursday. Celeste Mastin, CEO at the company, said sales volumes in Q2 had posted a “strong performance” and came higher than initially expected, with regions such as Europe also improving and some sectors in China “growing like crazy”. The improvement in manufacturing prospects globally prompted HB Fuller to increase its 2024 financial guidance earlier this week after it published its Q2 financial results, which showed sales rose by 2%, year on year, and earnings by 10.1%. As an adhesives producer, HB Fuller's raw materials include tackifying resins, polymers, synthetic rubber, plasticizers and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). The company’s fiscal year starts on 1 December; its fiscal Q2 covers March-May. EARLIER THAN PLANNED RECOVERYAfter its longest downturn ever, chemicals may finally be savoring the green shoots of a recovery in earnest. HB Fuller, at least, is. According to Mastin, the notable improvement in Q2 foresees a healthier second half of the year, with the improvement across all the company’s divisions and regions it operates in. “We have had a strong volume performance and, actually, we were planning volume growth in the mid-single digits for the second half, but we are already seing that, which explains Q2 [performance],” she said, speaking to reporters and chemical equity analysts. “We track the prices of 4,000 raw materials – 80% they are flat or increasing slightly. We think from Q3 onward the trend will be for increases over time.” HB Fuller’s upbeat assessment contrasts with what the company issued after its fiscal Q1. At the time, Mastin said sales volumes were still weak and, if that situation persisted, prices of specialty chemicals, which had so far held up reasonably well, could also fall. The improvement as of late has prompted the company to also raise its selling prices forecast – from an initially expected negative pricing impact of 2-3%, the company now forecasts a negative impact of 1-2%. Those pricing negative effects, however, will be overcome by growth in sales volumes, the CEO said. Mastin went on to say the automotive sector is one where HB Fuller is “aggressively” trying to gain market share, adding the strategy is paying off with sales volumes up between 20% and 30% compared with last year. “In China, we have a very strong position in automotive. But we are seeing healthy performance in other sectors as well, such glass, aerospace, or electronics – the latter is growing like crazy there. Equally, we are also seeing strong growth in India,” said Mastin. HB Fuller’s CFO, John Corkrean, also present at the press conference, added that, after a poor Q1, even the beleaguered European economy – under pressure since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent energy prices shock – also showed some positive signs in Q2. “We have seen a return to volume growth in all market segments. Some spots such as hygiene remain a weak spot, but we have also seen there an improvement from Q1 and we expect to see further improvement in the next two quarters,” said Corkrean. “Europe was slow in Q1 but that improved in Q2 in , for example, the construction-related businesses. These are positive signs we expect will continue in coming quarters.” Front page picture shows glue being applied Source: Shutterstock

27-Jun-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Swiss fertilizer producer and trader Ameropa and India firm Hygenco Green Energies have announced they have signed a term sheet regarding the potential supply of green ammonia from Hygenco's forthcoming plant in India. The companies said one of the goals of this pact is to enhance green ammonia exports from India and to support the global transition to renewable energy and sustainable agricultural practices. Hygenco will produce green ammonia from a project to be located at the Gopalpur port in Odisha with the first phase anticipated to produce 600 short tons/day, which it plans to achieve by 2027. As designed phase two will double output to 1,200 tonnes/day by early 2028 with the project scheduled to reach full capacity of 1.1 million tons/year of green ammonia by 2030. Looking to capture a significant share of the growing global low-carbon ammonia markets, Hygenco and Ameropa said they are planning to start exporting green ammonia to Europe and Asia with a key focus on establishing a reliable supply chain. Currently Hygenco is the only Indian company with an operational commercial green hydrogen plant, and it plans to invest $2.5 billion in green hydrogen and green ammonia projects in the next three years. “Inspired by the age-old philosophy that the world is one family, we are proud to announce a visionary partnership with Ameropa to support their decarbonization goals,” said Amit Bansal, Hygenco Green Energies CEO. “This term sheet highlights India’s exceptional position to lead globally in this sector, by harnessing its abundant renewable energy resources and strong infrastructure.” India has a target of producing 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030 and if this is achieved the country is poised to then become a major exporter of green ammonia. For Ameropa, this opportunity is seen as being pivotal to help them make low-impact fertilizers and grow sustainable agricultural practices as well as significantly enhance the company's indirect emissions reduction. “The Swiss trader has decided to support Hygenco's well-advanced plans while nurturing the ambition of a global portfolio of low-carbon ammonia,” said Beat Ruprecht, Ameropa Head of Ammonia.

26-Jun-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s chemicals producers, represented by trade group Abiquim, have gotten on board with peer groups and trade unions in their lobbying for higher import tariffs for dozens of products as the government’s decision looms. Led by Abiquim, a total of 28 trade groups, trade unions, industrial development groups, one professional association and one company have signed a manifesto pleading for higher import tariffs to safeguard an industry which, in their view, is being threatened by lower priced imports which are produced with lower environmental standards. “The Brazilian chemicals input production chain, fundamental to the country's economic and technological development, faces unprecedented challenges that threaten its very existence and the future of sustainable solutions for Brazilian industry,” said the manifesto. “Ensuring measures to protect the trade balance is vital to maintain the operation of the chemical chain and attract new investments.” In May, chemicals producers – via Abiquim but also as individual companies – proposed increasing tariffs in more than 100 chemicals, most of them from 12.6% to 20%, in a public consultation held by the Brazil’s government body the Chamber of Foreign Commerce (Camex). A decision is expected in August as the latest. Other trade groups in the chemicals chain, such as Abiplast, representing plastics transformers, do not support higher tariffs as most of their members import product to meet their demand, and are doing their own lobbying not to increase tariffs. ABIQUIM LOBBYING GETS PARTNERSAs well as Abiquim, other trade groups within chemicals signed the document, such the Brazilian Association of Alkali, Chlorine, and Derivatives Industry (Abiclor); the Brazilian Association of Fine Chemical, Biotechnology and Specialty Industries (Abifina); and the Brazilian Association of Artificial and Synthetic Fiber Producers (Abrafas) also signed the document. In total, 11 trade groups and 12 trade unions signed the document, as well as industrial development groups and other players in the chemicals chain. See bottom for full list of signatories. The backing of the unions is important because it is likely to resonate in the corridors of power in Brasilia, where the left-leaning government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva got into office thanks in part to the votes of the industrial workers constituency who voted for Lula’s Workers Party (PT) in 2023 under the promise of more and better paid industrial jobs. “The Brazilian chemicals input production chain, fundamental to the country's economic and technological development, faces unprecedented challenges that threaten its very existence and the future of sustainable solutions for Brazilian industry. Ensuring measures to protect the trade balance is vital to maintain the operation of the chemical chain and attract new investments,” said the manifesto. “What we are witnessing by allowing a surge in imports of products without environmental commitments is the failure to comply with a global agenda, with negative contributions to the fight against climate change.” As the left-leaning Lula cabinet aims to increase public spending, the manifesto also touches on Abiquim’s calculations in the decrease in tax receipts by the Brazilian Treasury in 2023, as a consequence of lower imports – the trade group said the state’s receipts decreased during that year by Brazilian reais (R) 8.0 billion ($1.45 billion). “[The decrease in tax receipts] directly impacts investments in the production sector and in several other areas of public policy. Continuing to allow the unbridled entry of chemical products is a paradox for the policy that Brazil has planned in the context of neo-industrialization, while imports already account for 50% of demand in the chemicals industry,” said the manifesto. “Because of this, some plants are idle, with preventive maintenance anticipated, while others are hibernating plants. And this affects not only the production of chemical inputs, but an entire broad supply chain of raw materials, services, and energy supply related to the sector.” The Abiquim-led manifesto was also signed by several trade unions in some of Brazil’s key petrochemicals hubs, such the Chemists Union of Sao Paulo; the Union of Chemical Industries of Rio Grande do Sul (Sindiquim), and the Union of workers in the chemical, petrochemical, plastic and pharmaceutical industries of the State of Bahia (Sindiquímica Bahia). According to Abiquim’s figures, Brazil’s chemicals production and related chain employs around 2 million workers, representing 12% of the country’s industrial GDP. Earlier in June, the director general at Abiquim said in an interview with ICIS that the request for higher tariffs was only one of the proposals presented to the government to safeguard producers' global competitiveness. “What we have presented to the government is the need to undertake action on three main fronts: in the short term, import tariffs, but in the medium and long term we also need a structural plan to address natural gas prices, which are seven times higher in Brazil than in some other jurisdictions, as well as a stimulus plan covering the whole chemicals production chain,” said Andre Passos. The list of signatories to the manifesto also includes one company, one professional association, and two industrial development groups: TRADE GROUPS 1. Chemical Industry Association (Abiquim) 2. Association of Piped Gas Distribution Companies (Abegas) 3. Association of Alkali, Chlorine, and Derivatives Industry (Abiclor) 4. Association of Fine Chemical, Biotechnology and Specialty Industries (Abifina) 5. Association of Pharmaceutical Inputs Industry (Abiquifi) 6. Association of Glass Industries (Abividro) 7. Association of Independent Oil and Gas Producers (ABPIP) 8. Association of Artificial and Synthetic Fiber Producers (Abrafas) 9. Association of Campos Elíseos Companies (Assecampe) 10. Association of Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation Companies (Atgás) 11. Federation of Industries of the State of Alagoas (FIEA) TRADE UNIONS 12. Federation of Chemical Workers of the CUT of the State of Sao Paulo (Fetquim – CUT SP) 13. Single Federation of Oil Workers (FUP) 14. Unified Chemical Union 15. Chemists Union of Sao Paulo 16. Plastic and Paint Industries Union of the State of Alagoas (Sinplast-AL) 17. Industry Union of Chemical Products for Industrial Purposes of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Siquirj) 18. Industry Union of Chemical Products for Industrial Purposes, Petrochemicals and Synthetic Resins of Camaçari, Candeias and Dias D'Avila (Sinpeq) 19. Industry Union of Chemical Products Chemicals for Industrial and Petrochemical Purposes in the State of Sao Paulo (Sinproquim) 20. Union of Chemical Industries of Rio Grande do Sul (Sindiquim) 21. Union of Chemists of ABC (Sao Paulo state region) 22. Union of workers in the chemical, petrochemical, plastic and pharmaceutical industries of the State of Bahia (Sindiquímica Bahia) 23. Union of Workers in the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Fertilizer Industries of Baixada Santista (coastal Sao Paulo area) 24. National Confederation of the Chemical Branch of CUT (CNQ-CUT) INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT GROUPS 25. Camacari Industrial Development Committee (Cofic) 26. Industrial Development of the Rio Grande do Sul Pole (Cofip RS) PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS 27. Federal Council of Chemistry (CFQ) COMPANIES 28. Forca Quimica ($1 = R5.51)

26-Jun-2024