Consulting case study: Energy transition

Customer brief

A global chemical association engaged us to develop different pathways for the chemical industry to achieve climate neutrality, with an evaluation of key enablers, challenges and opportunities.

Challenge

How to help the global chemicals industry achieve climate neutrality given the uncertainty over both future availability of key resources and the potential roll-out of alternative technologies that will be crucial in helping to reduce emissions.

Outcome

We initially developed a global landscape of current emissions across the most relevant value chains, examining volume and expected future growth. In light of the rapidly changing global regulatory framework, we also analysed where each region currently stands regarding legally binding and voluntary commitments to achieve carbon neutrality.

We worked with several stakeholders to define different scenarios for our analysis. As well as addressing the uncertainty around future resource availability, these scenarios also reflected advancements in technology in order to provide a nuanced and informed perspective on potential ways forward.

We developed a bespoke long-term demand forecast model factoring in relevant industry drivers including macroeconomics and specific sector trends, as well as opportunities created by the shift towards greener fuels in maritime transportation such as low-carbon ammonia, methanol and hydrogen.

For each scenario, a cost-minimal pathway to climate neutrality was calculated leveraging a robust, scientifically based methodology. Our modelling approach used lifecycle assessments in combination with cost-minimisation analysis to develop different pathways while leveraging technical, environmental and economic parameters validated by industry experts.

Based on the results, we identified resources and investments, as well as key external aspects necessary to achieve the desired outcome, examining factors such as the role of recycling, access to alternative feedstocks, low-emission energy and carbon storage infrastructure.