NEW YORK (ICIS)–The ISM US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 48.4 in November – up 1.9 points from 46.5 in October, but remains in contraction (below 50) for the eighth consecutive month, and 24 out of the last 25 months. The November reading “was above expectations and although still contractionary, welcome news”, said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. However, the “rolling recession” in manufacturing continues, he added. Only three sectors out of 18 expanded and the chemical industry again was not one of them. Overall manufacturing production rose 0.6 points to 46.8, a less contractionary reading. New orders moved up to a slightly expansionary 50.4 reading, but order backlogs contracted at a faster pace – a 41.8 reading, down 0.5 points from October. Both new orders and order backlogs, when combined with the reading on inventories, are good indicators of future activity, Swift pointed out. The inventories reading fell to 41.8 versus 42.6 in October. With still contracting inventories, an uptick in orders could translate into higher production, he noted. “Demand remains weak, as companies prepare plans for 2025 with the benefit of the election cycle ending. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving, but some product shortages are reappearing,” said Swift. “Customers’ inventories were deemed at the ‘too low’ level which could be positive for future new orders. Prices, however, eased back towards stable levels. Prices are sensitive to changes in supply and demand, and tend to provide a leading signal,” he added. High mortgage rates continue to hamper demand for new housing construction, which is a key market for adhesives and sealants, one respondent in Chemical Products noted. EUROPE WEAK, CHINA IMPROVESMeanwhile, in Europe the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI put together and released by S&P Global contracted further to 45.2 in November versus 46.0 in October, marking the 29th consecutive month of contraction. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI released by S&P Global saw an improvement to 51.5 in November from 50.3 in October – its second consecutive month of expansion.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average container rates ticked lower last week, along with rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast, but rates from Asia-New York held steady during what is typically the slow season for transpacific ocean freight. Shipping analysts said rates remain elevated for several reasons, most significantly the frontloading of imports ahead of possible renewed labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports. The possible implementation of new tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration is also keeping upward pressure on rates. Global average rates fell by 2% for the week ended 29 November, as shown in the following chart from supply chain advisors Drewry. The following chart from Drewry shows the rates from Asia to both US coasts. Drewry expects spot rates to be relatively stable this week. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said inland truck and rail rates could also face upward pressure as tariffs aimed specifically at Canada and Mexico could lead to increased cross-border volumes. Levine said congestion remains minimal at US ports, including the main West Coast port of Los Angeles/Long Beach. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said container ship traffic through the port continues to be steady with 67 container ships enroute and 12 scheduled to arrive in the next three days. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID RATES STEADY Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were largely stable this week for several trade lanes, with the exception being the USG-to-Brazil trade lane, as that market picked up this week following activity during the APLA conference in Colombia. Part space has limited availability as most owners are awaiting contract of affreightment (COA) nominations. The USG-Asia trade lane remains steady as spot tonnage remains readily available and multiple cargoes of glycol and styrene are interested in December and January loadings, supporting the market. Similarly, on the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was limited space available which readily absorbed the few fresh enquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. However, it is also clear that space is becoming very tight until the end of the year, keeping rates firm. The CPP market firmed, limiting the number of tankers offering into the chemical market, thus keeping rates stable. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 29 November 2024. ICIS Economic Summary: US election uncertainty over, policy impact to begin Much of the uncertainty surrounding the US election has been lifted, but there remain questions about the extent that stated policy goals will be achieved and their impact on the economy next year and beyond. INSIGHT: Deloitte expects more chem M&A as industry remains in flux The chemical industry is entering the new year amid an especially large amount of flux, with China receding as a demand driver, Europe contending with plant shutdowns and producers rearranging businesses through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Canadian manufacturers fear ‘devastating’ impact from Trump’s proposed 25% tariff New US tariffs on US-Canada trade would have a devastating impact on manufacturers, workers and consumers on both sides of the border, trade group Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME) said on Tuesday. INSIGHT: LatAm chemicals face threats of US tariffs, global oversupply Chatter on challenges permeated the Latin American Chemical and Petrochemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting as delegates faced down threats of global oversupply and the potential for new tariffs from the US. INSIGHT: US refiners to face higher oil, catalyst costs with Trump’s tariffs The tariffs proposed by President-Elect Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada and China would raise costs for the heavier grades of oil needed by US refineries as well as rare-earth elements used to make catalysts for downstream refining units. Argentina’s petchems prices to take time to fall despite import tax withdrawalArgentina’s decision to eliminate the so-called PAIS import tax earlier than planned is unlikely to have any impact on petrochemicals prices for now, sources said this week. LatAm PE domestic prices fall in Argentina, Brazil and MexicoDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as lower in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico on the back of competitive offers from abroad and weak demand. In other Latin American (LatAm) countries, prices were unchanged.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which focuses on the likely impact of Trump’s tariff wars. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 29 November. Europe methanol supply shortages worsen for December, prices at 2022 highs Europe’s methanol market is expected to tighten further as production outages in US and Europe apply pressure on supply. India’s Adani Group access to foreign capital at risk amid US bribery charges India’s Adani Group may run into difficulty accessing external funding and may see an increase in its capital costs as global rating agencies have downgraded the outlook for several of the group’s companies, citing escalating legal and governance risks. Soda ash annual contract talks progress as players prepare for another challenging year Soda ash demand in November is overall stable in Europe, but the lack of any pick-up has prompted some furnace closures at glass manufacturers, although some plants that were shut last year may restart next year. Deloitte expects more chem M&A as industry remains in flux The chemical industry is entering the new year amid an especially large amount of flux, with China receding as a demand driver, Europe contending with plant shutdowns and producers rearranging businesses through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Europe PE/PP spot prices stable to soft as year ends with a limp Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) spot prices were stable to lower in the week to 22 November, with limited business done.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: As delegates gather for this year’s Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) in Oman, front-of-mind will, of course, be the global trading environment. Is the world willing or able to continue to absorb China’s manufacturing surpluses, including in chemicals and polymers as today’s post discusses? The ICIS data suggest there is nothing new in China dominating global capacities in polymers such as polyester fibres and PVC (although as China moves up the chemicals value chains, its dominance of EVA  and polycarbonate is new). But historic context is everything. In 2001-2021, trade tensions between the rest of the world and China were not where they are today. The world felt more able to accommodate China’s dominance of chemicals and other manufacturing value chains. We, of course, need to consider the implications of Donald Trump’s election victory and the EU’s growing concern over what it sees as Chinese overcapacity. A 29 November South China Morning Post article wrote as follows: The EU’s civil service [last week] flew officials and experts in, at von der Leyen’s personal invitation, from around Europe and the United States for a full day devoted to Chinese overcapacity – an issue former trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis described as a “significant threat”. “From steel and solar panels to shipbuilding and the automotive industry – this is not an abstract challenge, it is reality. And for many businesses, both in Europe and within our partners, it is an existential challenge,” Dombrovskis said. You can talk as much as you like about cost-per-tonne economics and about feedstock advantage, but it won’t get you very far in this post-Chemicals Supercycle world. Today’s blog is another example of why we need to broaden our analysis out to include a wide range of big picture factors that will shape the global chemicals industry. In this case, you need to build a matrix of countries, companies and chemicals products and then determine scenarios for the effect on all three of a much more uncertain global trading environment. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to a seven-month high of 50.3, remaining in expansion territory for the second straight month, official data showed on Monday. A private manufacturing PMI survey by media group Caixin showed similar trend, with a much higher November reading of 51.5, up from 50.3 in the previous month. The Chinese government’s stimulus measures were cited as major expansion drivers. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), both supply and demand improved in November, with the sub-production index rising to 52.4 from October’s 52.0, while the sub-new order index rising to 50.8 in November from 50.0 in October. Meanwhile, Caixin’s November production index increased to the highest since July 2024, with the new order index hitting its highest since March 2023. Companies surveyed cited some recovery in external orders, with November exports of big-ticket and intermediate items rebounding, while those of consumer products declined.

MUSCAT (ICIS)–The 19th Annual Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) Forum will be held in Bahrain next year, according to GPCA secretary general Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun. The annual forum is the flagship chemical industry gathering in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which comprises of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The forum took place outside the UAE for the first time in 2022, when it was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It was then held in Doha, Qatar the following year; and in Muscat, Oman this year. This year, the 18th Annual GPCA Forum kicked off on Monday in Muscat, Oman and will run up to 5 December, with the theme “Industry’s Next Chapter: Driving Sustainable Advancement for Global Progress”. Last year’s GPCA Forum in Qatar attracted more than 5,000 delegates.

MUSCAT (ICIS)–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) petrochemical players must formulate strategic international partnerships and invest in optimization and innovation to remain competitive, according to the secretary general of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA). “In the short term, the [GCC petrochemicals] industry needs to urgently adapt to shifting market dynamics and explore new opportunities within products and markets,” Abdulwahab Al Sadoun told ICIS ahead of the 18th Annual GPCA Forum in Muscat, Oman on 2-5 December. “Formulating the right strategic partnerships, particularly with regards to the region’s top export market – China – will also be important in securing growth,” he said. The GCC comprises six Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The forum took place outside the UAE for the first time in 2022, when it was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; in Doha, Qatar the following year; and in Muscat, Oman this year. The GCC petrochemical industry’s performance is closely interlinked with the health of the global economy, including changes in consumer demand patterns, regulatory and policy updates and demand fluctuations in end markets, Al-Sadoun said. “Aligning itself with key global objectives and ensuring their products and services provide meaningful solutions to the challenges we face will be vital in securing the industry’s future.” Al-Sadoun said that the forum’s theme of “Industry’s Next Chapter: Driving Sustainable Advancement for Global Progress” was timely as the GCC petrochemicals industry now stands at a crossroads in the chemical industry’s evolution. The world today is faced with “insurmountable challenges”, Al-Sadoun said. Geopolitical turmoil, climate change, food insecurity, supply chain disruptions, and waste management are some of the megatrends impacting the chemical industry, society and planet, according to Al-Sadoun. “As the external environment around us continues to be in a state of change, so does the chemical industry need to evolve apace…The chemical and petrochemical sector plays an instrumental role as a solutions provider to some of these key challenges,” he said. “At the heart of our chemistry solutions lies the vision to contribute to global sustainable advancement – simultaneously enhancing our contributions to socio-economic prosperity, while at the same time preserving our planet and developing solutions that contribute to the energy transition and the circular economy.” DUAL CHALLENGE As the global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, the industry will be faced with the dual challenge of meeting growing chemicals demand driven by an expanding, urbanized population, while at the same time meeting its obligations to decarbonize and preserve the environment, Al-Sadoun said. “As global discussions intensify around renewable energy sources and low-carbon technologies, major GCC players have announced net-zero emissions goals and are investing in green technologies, such as hydrogen production and renewable energy integration.” Advancing the circular economy is also an important factor in driving the sustainable transition, he said. Notable innovations across the GCC industry include Kuwait producer EQUATE’s Viridis 25, the region’s first food-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET) incorporating 25% chemically recycled material, reducing reliance on virgin PET, Al-Sadoun noted. Similarly, UAE polymers major Borouge has advanced recyclability through mono-material laminates and flexible packaging solutions, while Saudi Arabia chemicals giant SABIC continues to lead with its certified circular polymers made from 100% recycled plastic. Government-driven initiatives, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategy, will also provide a supportive policy framework for industry-wide sustainability transitions, he noted. “However, industry players are under no illusion that the road to sustainability is long and ridden with challenges,” Al-Sadoun said. “It requires true collaboration, Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and the entire value chain to pull their weight to chart a viable pathway to sustainability,” he said. “The journey to achieving big goals is often a series of small, consistent steps…And this is what the industry needs to focus on – taking impactful, consistent actions every day.” Interview article and infographic by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: GPCA secretary-general Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun (Source: GPCA)