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Ethylene28-Jul-2025
MADRID (ICIS)–Brazil’s petrochemicals sector
is set to suffer a prolonged slump that will
threaten profitability if government does not
intervene, according to an analyst at credit
ratings agency Moody’s.
Carolina Chimenti, analyst for Brazilian
chemicals at the agency, added that Braskem’s
future would be particularly troubled – as
Brazil and Latin America’s largest
petrochemicals producer faces margin
compression and limited free cash flow
generation amid the challenging environment,
she said.
“The problem is that we are in the middle of
a very stiff down cycle that we think is
going to last longer than other down cycles,”
said Chimenti.
“Without government support, without a new
REIQ [an expired tax break for chemicals
companies, for which Congress is debating a
replacement], the margins would be very
compressed and the company would not generate
positive free cash flow considering the
payments of Alagoas.”
Braskem’s Alagoas liabilities relate to
payments stemming from geological damage
caused by its salt mining operations in the
northern Brazilian state.
But even excluding these payments, the
analyst added, cash generation would remain
limited even with potential cost-cutting
measures.
“I think Braskem, which is a profitable
company, should be able to generate positive
free cash flow throughout the cycles. The
issue is that this is not a normal cycle,
it’s a very difficult condition and they have
specific issues related to Alagoas,” she
added.
Braskem had not responded to a request for
comment at the time of writing.
FEEDSTOCK
DISADVANTAGEChimenti said
Brazil’s petrochemicals industry suffers from
structural disadvantages compared with US
producers, particularly regarding feedstock
costs.
Brazilian chemicals producers rely primarily
on naphtha-based production, while US
competitors benefit from cheaper ethane
derived from shale gas.
“Brazil sits so close to the backyard of the
US. It’s one of the biggest export markets
and it’s also one of the closest. That’s the
other disadvantage you have – Brazil is so
close to a market that has much lower
feedstock costs. Converting to ethane-based
production would require substantial
investments – all this during the downturn,”
said Chimenti.
“They don’t have that money. They have some
projects, especially the gas project in Rio.
The main asset they have is Braskem-Idesa in
Mexico, which runs on ethane but has its own
challenges. They don’t have this internal
cash generation as of now and they would need
to secure funding at a moment when I’m not
sure the funding would be there for them, or
at least it wouldn’t be cheap for them.”
Braskem has been
negotiating with Brazil’s state-owned energy
major Petrobras a supply deal for natural
gas for months, but talks are still ongoing.
However, even if Petrobras provided gas
supplies, structural differences between
Brazilian and US extraction complicate the
situation, said the Moody’s analyst.
“Gas extraction in Brazil is not as
competitive as in the US. The US went through
a massive investment period after the shale
discoveries and they were able to create an
infrastructure in which you could supply the
petrochemicals industry with gas,” said
Chimenti.
“The oil extracted in the US is very light
oil and so it sucks up a lot of methane.
Whereas the oil that’s extracted in Brazil
doesn’t come with a lot of methane. That’s
fundamentally the Petrobras problem – they
don’t have that methane to, let’s say, lend
the gas ‘cheaply’.”
POLICY SUPPORT
POTENTIALTo replace REIQ, the
Brazilian parliament is debating the
so-called Presiq legislation, which also
contemplates tax breaks for chemicals
producers.
“This would have a material impact for
Braskem. The company is estimating it could
have a positive impact of around $400-500
million in additional EBITDA [earnings before
interest, taxes, depreciation, and
amortization]. But in the long term, Braskem
needs to make these investments [to switch to
ethane] to improve its competitiveness in the
current environment,” said the analyst.
“So, more gas-based production and ramping up
the operations in Mexico [at Braskem Idesa]:
these kind of things to try to diverge from
the need for government support to improve
profitability during down cycles.”
Front page picture: Braskem’s Duque de
Caxias site in Brazil’s state of Rio de
Janeiro
Source: Braskem
Interview article by Jonathan
Lopez
Ethylene28-Jul-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 25 July
INTERVIEW: US proposed 50% tariff on Brazil
and threat of retaliation a concern – ACC
official
The proposed US tariff of 50% on imports from
Brazil, and the potential for retaliation as
Brazil has suggested is a major concern for
the US chemical industry, said an American
Chemistry Council (ACC) official.
US Dow halves dividend as chem downturn to
last longer than expected
Dow cut its dividend by 50% on Thursday
because the downturn in the chemical industry
is entering its third year and it will last
longer than expected.
INTERVIEW: Europe chemicals hit bottom,
policy shift a long-term positive – Covestro
CEO
The European chemical industry has hit bottom
and there are positive developments for
structural reforms that could lead to a
brighter future, said the CEO of
Germany-based Covestro.
INTERVIEW: US offers strategic advantages for
investment but tariff certainty needed –
Covestro CEO
The US has a strategic competitive advantage
when it comes to investment in chemicals, but
tariff and trade certainty is needed, said
the CEO of Germany-based Covestro.
INSIGHT: Japan chems, markets, breathe sigh
of relief after US deal
Japanese markets breathed easier on Wednesday
after news of a reduction in tariff rates
from the US, but the deal also underlines the
US’ willingness to maintain rates above the
10% baseline set out in April on key trading
partners.
INTERVIEW: US chemical distributors clamor
for tariff clarity – ACD CEO
US chemical distributors are calling for
trade agreements with key trading partners
that would bring some level of certainty to
tariff levels, said the head of the Alliance
for Chemical Distribution (ACD).
Economic bear indicators continue to
proliferate ahead of August tariff
day
Global macroeconomic trends are pointing
further down into the second half of the year
ahead of the 1 August US tariffs date, with
2025 set to be one of the weakest years for
oil demand growth in 16 years and downside
risks prevailing.
Ethylene28-Jul-2025
MADRID (ICIS)–Venezuelan authorities have
reportedly withdrawn tax benefits for Brazilian
products under a 2012 bilateral agreement,
causing difficulties for exporters and
potentially breaching zero-tariff arrangements
between the neighboring countries.
The Federation of Industries of the State of
Roraima (Fier) has reported receiving
complaints from businesspeople since 18 July
about unexpected tariff charges on previously
exempt Brazilian imports.
“We receive information directly from business
owners because we are responsible for issuing
certificates of origin, which guarantee
Brazilian products enter Venezuela with zero
tariffs. But even with the certificate, the
products are being subject to tariffs,” said
Ivan Gonzalo, foreign trade analyst at Fier,
quoted by Brazilian media outlet
Globo.
According to the same media outlet, Brazil’s
foreign ministry – also called Itamaraty – said
it has been monitoring reports in coordination
with the Ministry of Development, Industry,
Commerce and Services (MDIC).
Fier, Itamaraty, the MDIC, the Venezuelan
embassy in Brasilia, and the Venezuelan
ministry of foreign relations had not responded
to a request for comment at the time of
writing.
The Brazilian Embassy in Caracas is
investigating with Venezuelan authorities to
clarify the situation under Economic
Complementarity Agreement No. 69 (ACE 69),
which prohibits import taxes between the
countries.
Local media reported rates ranging from 15% to
77% on previously exempt products, though Fier
could not confirm specific amounts.
The uncertainty has prompted Brazilian
companies to temporarily suspend shipments.
Bilateral trade between Brazil and Venezuela
has suffered ups and downs after the Venezuelan
dictatorship plunged the country into crisis in
the 2010s through mismanagement and widespread
corruption.
According to Itamaraty, trade rose in the 2000s
and the early 2010s, reaching $6 billion in
2013, before Venezuela’s crisis hit hardest.
“Between 2013 and 2019, it [trade] fell by
almost 92%, dropping to $501 million. More
recently, it has grown again, reaching $1.6
billion in 2024, and has become a major export
destination for Brazil’s northern states,
especially Roraima and Amazonas,” said the
ministry.
“In 2024, Brazil exported $1.2 billion to
Venezuela and imported $422 million from the
country. Sugars and molasses, vegetable fats
and oils, and chemical fertilizers are the main
products on the trade agenda.”
However, local reports in Roraima said trade
with Venezuela represents 46.1% of the state’s
exports.

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Polyethylene28-Jul-2025
MADRID (ICIS)–Petrobras has appealed to
Brazil’s antitrust regulator CADE to secure
its participation in Nelson Tanure’s bid to
control petrochemicals major Braskem,
according to the Brazilian state-owned energy
major.
Petrobras – which controls 36.1% of Braskem
capital structure – claims it has been
excluded from negotiations even though it is
one of the company’s largest shareholders.
In May, Brazilian entrepreneur Nelson
Tanure’s investment fund Petroquimica Verde
made an offer to
acquire Novonor’s 38.3% stake in Braskem.
The Novonor stake is a controlling one as it
has 51.1% of the voting rights. Petrobras has
47% of the voting rights.
However, according to a Braskem shareholder
agreement between Petrobras and Novonor, the
energy major has pre-emptive and tag-along
rights in the event of a direct or indirect
sale of the shares held by Novonor.
“Petrobras has requested to join as a third
party in the merger review proceedings
evaluating the possible purchase of shares in
NSP Inv, a subsidiary of Novonor, which
controls Braskem, by Nelson Tanure,” said
Petrobras.
The Petrobras appeal to CADE comes less than
a week after the antitrust regulator approved Tanure’s
proposal without restrictions.
However, CADE said the deal can only proceed
if Tanure fulfills the Novonor shareholders’
agreement obligations with Petrobras and
succeeds in talks with former Odebrecht’s
creditor banks, which hold Braskem shares as
collateral for debts of around Brazilian
reais (R) 15 billion ($2.7 billion).
“For this reason, the company requested that
the competition agency allow it to join the
proceedings as an interested third party,”
added Petrobras.
As in previous communications, Petrobras said
no decision has been made about its stake in
Braskem.
Braskem, Novonor and Petroquimica Verde have
yet to reply to a request for comment at the
time of writing.
Petrochemicals28-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on
Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges,
which looks at the collapse underway in the
chloralkali/PVC sector, and Dow’s Q2 results.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
Polyethylene28-Jul-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: The US-EU trade deal,
setting a 15% baseline tariff, is generating
mixed reactions across Europe. Is this truly a
“good” deal, or simply essential damage
control?
My latest blog post dives into the nuances,
weighing the gains against the significant
costs for the European economy. This, of
course, comes at a time of major restructuring
pressure on European petrochemicals. As the
dust settles, further posts will assess what
the deal could mean this particular European
industry.
Key Pros for Europe:
Averted Trade War Catastrophe: Successfully
avoided the threatened 30% US tariffs and
massive EU retaliation, preventing severe
economic turmoil and widespread supply chain
disruption.
Restored Stability & Predictability:
The 15% baseline offers a clearer cost
structure for businesses, aiding long-term
planning amidst ongoing uncertainty.
Maintained Crucial Market Access: Despite
higher costs, European goods (like automobiles)
retain access to the vital US market, averting
potential exclusion.
Strategic Sector Protection:
“Zero-for-zero” tariffs secured for key
high-value sectors like aircraft, certain
chemicals, generic drugs, and semiconductor
equipment.
Preserved Transatlantic Ties: Maintained a
crucial diplomatic relationship vital for
broader global cooperation.
Key Cons for Europe:
Higher Overall Tariff Burden: 15% is
significantly above historical averages,
imposing a new, ongoing cost burden on European
exporters.
Increased Costs: US importers face higher
costs, either leading to increased consumer
prices or reduced European profit margins.
Impact on Key Export Sectors: Automakers,
for example, face reduced competitiveness and
potential acceleration of costly reshoring
efforts.
Unresolved Tariffs & Concessions: 50%
US tariffs on steel/aluminium remain, while
Europe has pledged substantial US LNG &
military equipment purchases, plus major
investments.
Fragmented Trade Landscape: The deal
creates a patchwork of tariffs, not a return to
free trade, and highlights Europe’s defensive,
limited negotiating position.
This agreement underscores the ongoing
fragility of global trade relations. It’s a
pragmatic retreat to safeguard the broader
economic relationship.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Ethylene28-Jul-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean S-Oil’s thermal
crude-to-chemical project in Ulsan is now 77.7%
complete and is on track for mechanical
completion in H1 2026, even as the company’s Q2
net loss widened.
As of 16 July, major towers of the project
called “Shaheen” – Arabic for “falcon” – had
been installed, with installation of cracking
heater in progress, the South Korean refiner
said on 25 July.
Installations of the thermal crude-to-chemical
(TC2C) reactor and key units, as well as linear
low density polyethylene and high-density
polyethylene (LLDPE/HDPE) reactors &
extruders were all completed, it added.
S-Oil is 63%-owned by Saudi Aramco, the world’s
biggest exporter of crude oil.
The company’s Q2 net loss widened to South
Korean won (W) 66.8 billion ($48 million) as
its petrochemical business swung into an
operating loss of W34.6 billion from a profit
of W109.9 billion in the same period last year.
in billion won (W)
Q2 2025
Q2 2024
Yr-on-Yr % change
H1 2025
H1 2024
Yr-on-Yr % change
Revenue
8,048.5
9,570.8
-15.9
17,039.0
18,879.3
-9.7
Operating income
-344.0
160.6
–
-365.5
614.8
–
Net income
-66.8
-21.3
–
-111.3
144.9
–
Refining operating profit
-441.1
-95.0
–
-497.9
155.4
–
Petrochemical operating profit
-34.6
109.9
–
-109.2
157.9
–
Lube operating profit
131.8
145.8
-9.6
241.5
301.4
-19.9
Compared with Q1, Q2 paraxylene (PX) market
rebounded on fresh demand from a new purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) facility in China and
benzene market weakened due to reduce US
imports following the imposition of tariffs.
Polypropylene (PP) and propylene oxide (PO)
markets recovered amid tighter supply from
regional maintenance and easing tension between
the US and China.
For Q3, the company expects PX to be firm due
to plant turnarounds and start-ups of new
downstream PTA facilities, with the benzene
market likely to be resilient, as demand from
new downstream facilities offsets decreased US
imports.
PP and PO markets may remain supported as
tariff uncertainties fade, despite ongoing
capacity additions in China, the company
predicts.
($1 = W1,380)
Gas28-Jul-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories
from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for
the week ended 25 July.
INSIGHT: Japan ruling
coalition loss undermines PM Ishiba
negotiating power with US
By Jonathan Yee 21-Jul-25 14:30 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Japan’s ruling coalition failed to
secure a majority in the upper house election
on 20 July, with dwindling political support
at home coming at a crucial time when Prime
Minister Shigeru Ishiba is in the process of
negotiating a trade deal with the US.
Malaysia clamps down on
plastic waste imports for recycling
By Arianne Perez 21-Jul-25 15:39 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Malaysia has announced more stringent
requirements in the import of plastic waste
from some countries while fully banning
imports from others.
US
sets lower 15% tariffs for Japan after trade
deal
By Jonathan Yee 23-Jul-25 10:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–US President Donald Trump announced
in a social media post on 22 July a “massive”
deal with Japan, setting US tariffs at 15% on
Japanese goods.
India extends deadline
for final findings in PVC anti-dumping probe
to 25 September
By Aswin Kondapally 23-Jul-25 15:48 MUMBAI
(ICIS)–India’s Directorate General of Trade
Remedies (DGTR) has been granted an extension
until 25 September 2025 to issue the final
findings in its ongoing anti-dumping
investigation into imports of polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) suspension resins from China,
Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan,
Thailand, and the United States.
INSIGHT: China to
retire old petrochemical units to reshape
industry
By Fanny Zhang 24-Jul-25 13:14 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China is planning to carry out a
comprehensive assessment of petrochemical
plants that have been in operation for more
than 20 years – a move that would ease
overcapacity and accelerate industry
consolidation.
Asia SBR/PBR import
offers lifted by buoyancy in domestic
China
By Ai Teng Lim 24-Jul-25 14:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Regional sellers of synthetic
rubbers, from styrene butadiene rubber (SBR)
to polybutadiene rubber (PBR), are seeking to
leverage on a recent spike in domestic
yuan-denominated prices for these two
synthetic rubber grades and chase higher
selling targets for their export cargoes.
Asia fatty alcohol
mid-cuts demand to stay firm on restocking,
PKO spike
By Helen Yan 25-Jul-25 12:24 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols mid-cuts C12-14
demand is expected to stay firm in the near
term due to restocking, with elevated
feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) costs
providing strong support.
Thailand June exports
rise 15.5%; US shipments surge ahead of
tariff deadline
By Jonathan Yee 25-Jul-25 15:14 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in June
grew by 15.5% year on year to $28.6 billion
on front-loading of shipments ahead of the
US’ 36% tariffs, which will take effect on 1
August.
Hydrogen25-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–On 24 July 2025, the European
Commission sent letters of formal notice to 26
member states for failing to transpose key
provisions of the revised Renewable Energy
Directive (RED III) by the 21 May 2025
deadline. Only Denmark is considered to have
fully transposed these provisions so did not
receive a letter.
The formal notices cover all RED III measures
that were due in May 2025, including the
renewable fuels of non-biological origin
(RFNBO) targets for industry under Articles 22a
and 22b, and for road and maritime transport
under Article 25. They also address guarantees
of origin, system integration requirements, and
sustainability safeguards.
Under EU infringement rules, the 26 EU
countries will now have two months to submit
full transposition measures. If the commission
deems the replies unsatisfactory, reasoned
opinions will be issued. Further non-compliance
could lead to the cases being referred to the
European Court of Justice, where financial
penalties may be imposed.
Article 22a requires member states to set
binding national targets for RFNBOs in
industry, specifying the share of renewable
hydrogen, synthetic fuels and other
carbon-neutral carriers each sector must
achieve by 2030
Article 22b establishes common
sustainability and greenhouse gas emission
criteria, requiring certification schemes that
enforce feedstock traceability, lifecycle
emissions calculations and independent
verification
Article 25 obliges Member States to ensure
a minimum share of renewable and low-carbon
fuels in road transport and maritime shipping,
with sub-quotas for advanced biofuels,
renewable hydrogen and synthetic e-fuels
This development follows the commission’s
decision to issue reasoned opinions to Ireland,
Latvia, and Portugal for failing to transpose
Article 15a of RED III, one year after the 1
July 2024 deadline.
Article 15a requires each member state to set
clear time limits for processing renewable
energy permits, to establish designated areas
where permitting rules apply, and to create
single points of contact for developers. It
also calls for user-friendly digital tools and
transparent online procedures to streamline
permitting procedures.
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