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Crude Oil15-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The outlook for Germany’s
economy improved in October, think tank ZEW
said on Tuesday, as its economic sentiment
indicator ticked up following three months of
decline.
The research group’s October economic sentiment
indicator increased by 9.5 points from
September to reach 13.1 points.
However, its assessment of the current
situation in Germany continued to worsen as the
group’s index fell 2.4 points from September to
-86.9 points in October.
“Starting from a very poor assessment of the
current situation, the economic sentiment for
Germany has risen in the latest survey,” said
ZEW president Achim Wambach.
“Contributing factors include the expectation
of stable inflation rates and the associated
prospect of further interest rate cuts by the
ECB. Positive signals are also coming from
Germany’s export markets.”
For the eurozone, the group’s economic
sentiment indicator rose by 10.8 points to 20.1
points in October, while the current situation
index remained in negative territory at -40.8
points, down by 0.4 points from the previous
month.
Styrene15-Oct-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS analyst Aviva
Zhang discuss the implications of China’s
growing styrene monomer (SM) capacity, which is
poised to open up export opportunities for the
remainder of 2024.
Chinese SM capacity currently at over 20
million tonnes/year; market pressured by new
capacity
Downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene
(ABS) margins still negative while polystyrene
(PS) margins are constrained
Implementation of new macroeconomic
policies is expected to stimulate end-use
demand, which players are closely watching
ICN
Petrochemicals14-Oct-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s retail inflation hit a
nine-month high of 5.49% in September, mainly
on firmer food prices, while the country’s
industrial output in August shrank for the
first time in 22 months.
The year-on-year increase in the consumer price
index (CPI) in September was higher than the
3.65% rate seen in August, the Ministry of
Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
said on Monday.
“It is likely that the increase in inflation
rate for the month of September 2024 is due to
high-base effect and weather conditions,” the
MoSPI said.
The September inflation figure remains within
the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance
band of 2.00-6.00%.
Inflation had softened significantly in
July and August with both
months recording an inflation rate below the
central bank’s target of 4%.
Food inflation, which forms a significant
portion of the CPI, stood at 9.20% in
September, a sharp increase from 5.66% in
August.
On 9 October, the central bank kept its key
interest rate unchanged at 6.5% but changed its
monetary policy stance to
“neutral”, following a deceleration in GDP
growth below 7% in fiscal Q1.
RBI maintained its inflation forecast for the
fiscal year ending March 2025 at 4.5%, while
retaining its full-year GDP growth forecast at
7.2%.
India – a giant emerging market in Asia –
overperformed most economies last year, posting
a robust 8.2%
GDP growth in the year ending March 2024.
Meanwhile, India’s factory output in August, as
measured through the Index of Industrial
Production (IIP), declined for the first time
in 22 months – down by 0.1% year on year
compared with a 4.7% expansion in July.
The decline was caused by an unfavourable base
effect and excessive rainfall in several
regions across the country, data released on 11
October showed.
August manufacturing output grew 1% year on
year, while mining output contracted by
4.3% and power generation declined by 3.7%.
In the same period last year, manufacturing
posted a 10% growth, with mining and power
generation posted increases of 12.3% and 15.3%,
respectively.
For the first five months of the current fiscal
year (April-August 2024), India’s IIP grew by
an average of 4.2%, weaker than the 6.2%
expansion recorded in the previous
corresponding period.
Focus article Priya Jestin
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Speciality Chemicals14-Oct-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories
from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on
11 October.
NEWS
Dow
shuts Argentina polyols plant on global
oversupplyDow has decided to
stop producing polyether polyols at its site in
San Lorenzo, in Argentina’s province of Santa
Fe, on the back of poor economics, the US
chemicals major confirmed to ICIS on Wednesday.
Brazil growth story props
up chloralkali sector; Argentina still distant
from being out of woods –
CloroSurBrazil’s healthier
than expected growth in 2024 has greatly
propped up the chloralkali sectors, while
Argentina’s woes, although improving, will take
some time to be fixed, said the director
general at Brazil’s trade group Abiclor.
Brazil’s September
inflation ticks up to 4.4% on drought-induced
higher electricity, food
costsThe drought affecting
Brazil filtered through consumers prices with
higher energy bills and foods prices, pushing
the annual rate of inflation to 4.4%, up from
4.14% in August, the country’s statistics
office IBGE said on Wednesday.
Argentina’s chemicals
output down 3.5% in August, manufacturing down
6.9%Argentina’s chemicals
and some petrochemicals-intensive sectors such
as manufacturing and construction continue to
bear the brunt of the recession, with output
falling again in August, the country’s
statistics office Indec said on Tuesday.
Chile’s September
inflation down to 4.1%, central bank expected
to cut rates furtherChile’s
annual rate of inflation fell in September to
4.1%, down from July’s 4.7%, reinforcing
analysts’ expectation the central bank is to
cut interest rates further later this month.
Brazil’s Q3 automotive
output highest since
2019Brazil’s
petrochemicals-intensive automotive output
posted in Q3 its best quarter since 2019 and
fully recovered its pre-pandemic levels, trade
group Anfavea said.
Lula
signs law to promote cleaner energy in
BrazilOn Tuesday, President
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva officially signed
into law the Combustivel do Futuro (PL
528/2020), a significant legislative step aimed
at promoting cleaner energy in Brazil.
Mexico’s Alfa completes
key step towards Alpek
spinoffThe proposed spinoff
of Mexican polyester producer Alpek has reached
a key milestone, with corporate parent Alfa
saying on Tuesday that it has solicited
consents from more than 90% of the holders of a
batch of senior notes.
Argentina’s inflation
falls to 209%; monthly price rises finally
below 4% markArgentina’s
annual rate of inflation fell in September to
209%, down from 237% in August, the
country’s statistics office Indec said on
Thursday.
Brazil’s Grupo Potencial
to expand soybean oil-based biodiesel plant in
ParanaBiodiesel and
glycerine producer Grupo Potencial is to invest
Brazilian real (R) 600 million ($107 million)
to expand its facility in Lapa, in Parana
state’s region of Curitiba, to up its capacity
to 1.62 billion liters/year (1.42 million
tonnes/year) of biodiesel, the government of
Parana said this week.
PRICING
LatAm
PP international prices increase in Chile, Peru
on higher Chinese
offersInternational
polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Chile
and Peru on the back of higher offers from
China, while in Argentina and Brazil, prices
dropped tracking competitive offers from
abroad.
LatAm
PE international prices fall on competitive US
export offersInternational
polyethylene (PE) prices fell across Latin
American (LatAm) countries on competitive
offers from the US.
Brazil expanding sectors
drive PVC import
surgeBrazil’s polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) imports emerged in 2024, driven
by the improved demand from the construction
and automotive sectors.
Ethylene14-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 11 October.
Hurricane Milton
on track to hit US fertilizer hub in
Tampa
Milton strengthened on Monday into a powerful
Category 4 hurricane, and it is expected to
continue strengthening before making landfall
by midweek near Tampa, Florida, a major
fertilizer hub that was drenched by an earlier
major hurricane.
Florida ports
close as Hurricane Milton approaches Tampa
fertilizer hub
Ports along Florida’s Gulf Coast are closed to
vessel traffic as Milton approaches the state’s
fertilizer hub in Tampa as a Category 4
hurricane.
Railroad shuts
many Florida terminals ahead of Hurricane
Milton
Railroad company CSX is suspending operations
at several of its intermodal and TRANSFLO
terminals in Florida ahead of Milton, which has
shifted its path away from Tampa, a major
fertilizer hub.
Hurricane Milton
makes landfall in Florida as Category 3
storm
Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta
Key, along Florida’s Gulf Coast in the US as a
Category 3 storm, bringing strong winds and
heavy rains, with warnings of a storm surge in
effect at several locations.
UPDATE: Hurricane
Milton moves off Florida’s east coast with
damaging winds, heavy
rainfall
Hurricane Milton is moving away from Florida’s
east coast but is still producing damaging
winds and heavy rainfall in the state,
according to the latest update on Thursday.
INSIGHT: After
Milton, global chems face future of rapidly
intensifying hurricanes
Warmer waters in the Atlantic Basin could make
record-setting hurricanes like Milton and Beryl
more common, which strengthened rapidly to
become major storms that caused significant
damage.
Some Florida
ports reopen while millions lack power after
Milton
Some ports in Florida have resumed operations
while millions in the US state remain without
power after Hurricane Milton made landfall
earlier in the week, south of the fertilizer
hub of Tampa.
Petrochemicals14-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on
Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges,
which looks at ‘reinvention’ as a
critical issue for the industry.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
Ammonia14-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–In episode 18 of the ICIS
Hydrogen Insights podcast, ICIS global hydrogen
editor Jake Stones is joined by Matthieu
Boisson, managing director for CertifHy, a
voluntary hydrogen certification company.
Matthieu explains the impact of the European
Commission’s “positive technical assessment”
for RFNBO certifiers, as well as the commercial
value hydrogen certificates could hold.
Beyond this, Matthieu’s experience with
companies seeking pre-certification sheds light
on where Europe stands as a global market
leader.
Finally, the pair discuss whether there is
interest in low-carbon hydrogen certification.
Crude Oil14-Oct-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s crude oil imports in
September totaled 45.5 million tonnes, down by
0.6% year on year and lower by 7.4% from the
previous month, official data showed on Monday.
For the first nine months of 2024, its total
crude imports declined by 2.8% year on year to
412.4 million tonnes, according to China
Customs data.
The world’s second-largest economy is expected
to see a 2.9% decrease on crude imports this
year to 548 million tonnes as economic
headwinds and rising penetration of electric
and gas-powered vehicles drag fuel demand, ICIS
principal analyst Patricia Tao said.
Polyethylene Terephthalate14-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Ahead of the 3rd
ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference in
Berlin on 7 November, Senior Analyst for
Recycling Egor
Dementev discusses the challenges
and opportunities for both mechanical and
chemical recycling with Annick
Meerschman, Innovation Director
at CEFIC.
Topics covered include:
Innovations driving plastic recycling in
Europe
Chemical recycling technology evolution
Impact of legislation and regulation
Challenges facing the recycling industry
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