LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt Tudball discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Further narrowing of the colorless flake range in eastern Europe Latest Italian bale auctions see colorless and blue bales drop More bullish sentiment displayed by some sellers in September

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals production in the EU has continued to firm through 2024, but weak demand is keeping output growth below recovery levels, with energy prices still substantially above US levels in the region, trade body Cefic said. Sector output increased for the fourth consecutive quarter in the April-June period, increasing 1.2% compared to the first three months of the year and 4.3% from the same period in 2023. The second quarter last year may stand as the low point for chemicals production going back to before the pandemic, Cefic added, but the 4.3% annual improvement for the same period this year does not yet represent a pronounced recovery. Second-quarter 2023 productivity had plummeted over 12% compared to the same period in 2022. “Given the lack [of] demand growth, the European chemical industry production volumes are still far from the pre-COVID levels,” the group said. Despite gradually firming output, demand remains depressed, and capacity utilisation declined slightly during the quarter, to 75.2%, with that trend continuing into July. Despite capacity rates substantially below the long-term average of 81%, the longstanding destocking trend in the sector may have come to an end in March, with July standing as the fourth consecutive month of increasing stocks. The sector outperformed general industrial productivity in the first six months of 2024, Cefic said, which saw a 3.6% decline year on year. This is having a knock-on effect on chemical company order books, while energy prices continued to be 4.7 times higher than in the US in July. Gas prices in the first half of the year were 70% above the 2014-2019 average in Europe, Cefic added. Thumbnail photo: Part of BASF’s Ludwigshafen, Germany, site on the banks of the River Rhine (Source: Lilly/imageBROKER/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: If this wasn’t so critically important, I’d be getting bored by now in telling the same old story. As today’s blog confirms it is the same story in the engineering or higher-value polymer polycarbonate (PC), as it is many other in chemicals and polymers. In 1992, China, with a 22% share of the global population accounted for 3% of global demand. By the end of this year, we expect China to be responsible for 47% of global demand from an 18% share of the global population. Here we go again: Events in China (demographics, debts, its geopolitical relationship with the West and the rise in China’s chemicals and polymers capacity) mean that today’s chemicals world is very different from the past. Are you still not convinced? Then consider these ICIS PC data points: During the1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle, China’s demand growth averaged 17% per in year. In 2022-2030 we are forecasting this will drop to 3%. In 1992-2023, China accounted for 76% of global net imports of PC among the regions and countries that imported more than they exported. China’s percentage shares of global net imports have been falling since 2021, the year of the Evergrande Moment. The ICIS base case predicts China’s net PC imports will average just 460,000 tonnes a year in 2024-2030 compared with 1.1 million tonnes during the peak years of 2010-2023. But 460,000 tonnes assume an operating rate of just 47% compared with the long-term average of 68%. Raise operating rates closer to 68% and you end up with China as a net exporter. There is, however, a scenario where China struggles to directly export chemicals and polymers where it is not already an established player. This could apply to PC. In 2023, 83% of Taiwan’s PC production, 41% of Thailand’s production, 34% of South Korea’s production and 26% of Japan’s production was dependent on exports to China. A valid question therefore seems to be: What should these countries do next? What would it take to return to the very healthy average global PC operating rate of 83% in1992-2023? Assuming no change to our base case assumption on production (the same as demand), global capacity would have to fall by an average 138,000 tonnes per year versus our forecast that capacity will instead grow by 153,000 tonnes each year. What might be the answer for producers in countries such as South Korea? Becoming more differentiated than their Chinese competitors as they emerge as winners in the fourth industrial revolution: Sustainability. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Transportations of chemical cargoes in southern China’s Hainan province were halted since 5 September ahead of the landfall of Typhoon Yagi. Operations at ports, trains and highways were closed to brace for the typhoon, which is expected to make landfall at Wenchang in Hainan or in the adjacent Guangdong province on Friday afternoon or evening, according to China Meteorological Administration (CMA). It will then move west to Guangxi province and is expected to make another landfall in northern Vietnam before weakening, it said. The storm will bring in super strong winds with speed of 60-65 meters per second and heavy rainfalls, CMA said. In the island province of Hainan, Sinopec has mobilized all staff to stand by for any emergency caused by Yagi on Friday morning, a company source said. Hainan has evacuated more than 410,000 people as of 9:00 hours (01:00 GMT) on Friday and authorities targeted to compete evacuation of thousands more by 11:00am, according to the provincial government. In Guangdong, the direct hit is expected to be in Zhanjiang City, where schools, shopping malls, construction works and ports in the city were ordered shut since 10:00 hours on 5 September. Elsewhere in the province, only light rains are expected. A Foshan-based petrochemical trader, meanwhile, said that cargoes continued to be delivered on Friday.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The weakening of the US dollar against major currencies in Asia since August will continue to strain exports of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET), recycled polyethylene (R-PE), and recycled polypropylene (R-PP). Fewer September deals expected as buyers resist changes in currency conversion Importers of recycling feedstock benefit from weakening of US dollar Asian recyclers wary of interest cuts by the US Fed Asian recyclers were largely relieved to see downward correction on container freight costs in August, but the ease in transportation costs were countered by foreign exchange fluctuations. Exporters of recycled polymers from key markets such as Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have struggled to close deals for September loading. Buyers were resisting the strengthening of major Asian currencies against the US dollar, resulting in an impasse in spot negotiations. A strong currency makes exports less competitive as buyers continue to use the US dollar for transactions in both term and spot commitments. As of 02:05 GMT, the Thai baht and the Indonesian rupiah registered the biggest month-on-month gains against the US dollar among four currencies of major Asian exporters. Exchange rates versus $1 Currencies 6 Sept (As of 02:05 GMT) % appreciation (month on month) Japanese yen (Y) 143.29 2.5 Thai baht (Bt) 33.56 5.8 Indonesian rupiah (Rp) 15,389.10 4.6 Malaysian ringgit (M$) 4.34 3.4 Source: www.xe.com Recyclers, on the other hand, have been unwilling to lower their prices amid high production costs and eroded margins. Due to this, majority of recyclers in the region expect September spot negotiations to be lower than that of August. “Our buyers [of R-PET flakes] within Asia were strongly resisting higher prices and they prefer to halt negotiations than to shoulder the foreign exchange fluctuations,” a Thailand-based R-PET producer said. A few buyers hedging their exposure to foreign exchange volatility were still able to secure spot quantities, but majority of buyers are not hedged. On the other hand, Asian recyclers which purchase US dollar-denominated feedstock benefited from the exchange rate fluctuations. Asian recyclers expect export volumes to remain dampened and are concerned about interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. As regional recyclers continue to position themselves as net exporters of R-PET, R-PE and R-PP, currency fluctuations and decisions by the Federal Reserve retain great implications to overall trade from Asia. Focus article by Arianne Perez Thumbnail image: A 10,000-Japanese yen note and $1 US dollar notes, 3 July 2024. (Taidgh Barron/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada’s Liberal-led minority government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is paying a heavy price for its decision last month to end the labor dispute at freight railroads Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) through binding arbitration. The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) on Thursday confirmed that it cancelled a “supply and confidence agreement” from 2022 under which it supported the Liberals, which hold only a minority of parliamentary seats. The NDP is close to labor trade unions and had warned Trudeau repeatedly not to intervene in the dispute. In a televised press conference on Thursday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said the government’s intervention added to “mounting evidence” that the Liberals were “too beholden to corporate interests”, making it impossible for the NDP to continue supporting them. Singh alleged the railroads had “colluded” to set up a scenario in which both companies were in a labor dispute at the same time, and that they had negotiated in “bad faith”. Instead of allowing the dispute to be settled through the collective bargaining process, the government, by ordering binding arbitration, awarded the companies for their conduct, he said. After a four-day freight rail shutdown at both CN and CPKC last month, the government directed a labor tribunal to end the shutdown and settle the dispute through binding arbitration. Freight rail service resumed on 26 August. From now on, the NDP’s voting in parliament would be case-by-case, based on what the party deems best for workers and families, Singh said. Voting non-confidence would be “on the table” and an early election was now more likely, he said. If the NDP joins the Conservatives and other opposition parties in voting against the government on the next confidence measure, the government will fall and an election has to be held. Seats in parliament (total: 338): Liberals Conservatives Bloc Quebecois NDP Others 154 119 32 24 9 Political commentators said that the NDP cancelled the agreement as it needed to distance itself from the Liberals, who after nine years in government are unpopular and are far behind the Conservatives in opinion polls. Singh rejected suggestions that by ending the agreement with the Liberals he was opening the door to a Conservative government. The NDP would be running against both Liberals and Conservatives, he said. Trudeau would “always cave to corporate greed”, and the Conservatives, if elected, would be worse, he said. The Conservative Party, which is supportive of Canada’s oil and gas industry, has pledged that if elected it would immediately abolish the consumer carbon tax implemented by the Liberals. There is a possibility that the Liberals may now look to opposition party Bloc Quebecois (BQ) for support – the BQ is advocating for Quebec to secede from Canada and become an independent nation. Rail labor union Teamster Canada welcomed the NDP’s decision to stop supporting the Liberals. The union has filed court challenges against the government decision to end the labor dispute through binding arbitration. Meanwhile, total Canadian freight rail traffic – intermodal and railcars – fell 5.8% year on year for the week ended 31 August. Industry officials have said it may take weeks for supply chains to normalize after last month’s shutdown. The following table by the AAR shows total Canadian freight rail data for the week ended 31 August and for the first 35 weeks of 2024: In Canada’s chemical industry, producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Thumbnail photo of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meeting students at college in Ontario in May; photo source: Government of Canada

European traders asked to pay difference for capacity booked prior to a sharp tariff increase The increase could wipe out transit on Trans-Balkan route Ukrainian TSO GTSOU says the latest increase could lead to a revenue reduction for Moldova LONDON (ICIS)–Traders have lashed out at the Moldovan gas grid operator Vestmoldtransgaz (VMTG) for being asked to pay higher transmission tariffs for capacity booked prior to the price hike on 1 September. At least ten companies active regionally and local traders who booked monthly or quarterly capacity for gas sourced in southern Europe and transiting Moldova to Ukrainian storage have been asked to pay the difference between the old and the new tariffs. Traders say the increase is wiping out the competitiveness of one of the most attractive regional transit routes and will block Moldova and Ukraine’s access to non-Russian gas supplies in southern Europe. An international trader told ICIS that beyond hurting the economic viability of the route the decision would also put a major burden on Moldovan consumers, who will have to face ever soaring bills. Another trader said the increase would hit the entire region. He questioned why VMTG increased tariffs by 50% since it hadn’t made any recent investments and the transmission assets it now operates have long been amortised. MOLDOVAN LOSSES In a letter sent to the Moldovan regulator, the ministry of energy, VMTG and the Energy Community and seen by ICIS, the Ukrainian gas grid operator GTSOU said reverse flows along the Trans-Balkan route linking southern Europe to Ukraine had ‘significantly facilitated cross-border trading opportunities in the region.’ VMTG, a company majority-owned by the Romanian grid operator, Transgaz, took over Moldova’s transmission operations in September 2023 following a government and regulator push to divest transmission from incumbent Moldovagaz. The transfer of operations via the lease agreement was pushed through after Gazprom, Moldovagaz’ majority owner, repeatedly requested the delay of transmission unbundling. Immediately after the switchover, VMTG requested a tariff increase, which was approved by the Moldovan regulator. This year VMTG has requested a further rise, with entry tariffs increasing from Moldovan Lei 20.9/MWh/h (€1.08/MWh/h) to Moldovan Lei 30.7/MWh/h (€1.59/MWh/h) on 1 September. Exit tariffs have also risen from Moldovan Lei 22.3/MWh/h to Moldovan Lei 35.5/MWh/h (€1.85/MWh/h). GTSOU said in the letter that the sharp tariff increase requested by VMTG combined with an increase in transmission tariffs in neighbouring transit country Romania has led to utilisation rates for the route dropping from 83% in 2023, prior to VMTG’s takeover, to 10% in 2024. The Ukrainian operator calculated that prior to the first VMTG tariff transit costs to ship gas from Greece to the Grebenyky on the border with Ukraine were around €3.00/MWh. Following the first rise, the overall cost rose by 67% to €5.00/MWh, while now it has increased to €6.7/MWh, with Moldova being the most expensive transit country in the region and possibly across Europe, traders say. The Ukrainian grid operator said the latest increase would ‘worsen’ the situation and lead to a revenue reduction for Moldova. A source close to GTSOU said VMTG could alleviate the situation by introducing comparatively cheaper short-haul tariffs bridging cross-border points. ANRE, Transgaz and VMTG did not reply to questions by publication.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian petrochemical major Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has won in the bid to get government incentives to produce advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries, which can be used in electric vehicles (EVs). Government incentives worth $431 million RIL chosen out of seven in tender process Construction of RIL ACC battery project in Gujarat ongoing The company will get Indian rupees (Rs) 36.2 billion ($431 million) worth of incentives under the government’s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, India’s Ministry of Heavy Industries said on 4 September. RIL bested six other bidders in the global tender process for the incentives in building an ACC plant with a 10 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) capacity, it said. The other bidders were ACME Cleantech Solutions; Amara Raja Advanced Cell Technologies; Anvi Power Industries; JSW Neo Energy; Lucas TVS; and Waree Energies. RIL is currently constructing an ACC-based battery manufacturing plant in Jamnagar in the western Gujarat state. “We have already begun construction of an integrated advanced chemistry-based battery manufacturing facility with a 30 GWh annual capacity at Jamnagar,” RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani had said during the Indian conglomerate’s annual general meeting (AGM) on 29 August. “Production will commence by the second half of next year,” Ambani added. The plant will initially assemble battery systems and packs, later expanding to cell manufacturing and chemical production, he added. ACC batteries can store and convert electric energy and are used in a variety of applications, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage, consumer electronics, and as power backup. EVs and associated battery markets provide growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for the environment-friendly vehicles. In May 2021, the Indian government set aside Rs181 billion for a National Programme on ACC battery storage to encourage development of the battery storage ecosystem and electric mobility in India. In the first round of the ACC PLI bidding in March 2022, three beneficiary firms were allocated a total capacity of 30 GWh. Ola Cell Technologies, Rajesh Exports Ltd and RIL subsidiary Reliance New Energy Solar Ltd won the bid in the first round. The fourth company that was initially awarded incentives was eventually disqualified, paving the way for rebidding of the unawarded 20GWh capacity, according to local media reports. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs83.98)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The collectively bargained contract between US East Coast and US Gulf ports and dock workers expires at the end of the month and the parties are not currently negotiating, leading one of the nation’s largest retail trade groups to urge the government to get involved. Last week, both parties submitted documents with the US Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) informing the agency of a dispute between the parties, as required by law. About 14,500 dock workers are represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), while the 36 ports – including three of the busiest ports in the US in Houston, New York and New Jersey, and Savannah, Georgia – are represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The looming work stoppage would have major impacts on the US economy, and the National Retail Federation (NRF) has urged both sides to resume negotiations. “At a time when inflation is on the downward trend, a strike or other disruption would significantly impact retailers, consumers and the economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The administration needs to offer any and all support to get the parties back to the table to negotiate a new contract.” In June, NRF led a coalition of 158 state and federal trade associations in a letter to President Joe Biden urging the administration to work with the negotiating parties to reach a new agreement. The NRF said that the threat of a strike during the peak shipping season has many retailers already implementing costly mitigation strategies, such as shifting deliveries to West Coast ports. This adds additional costs because of the longer routes, which could be even more drastic as capacity for ocean carriers is already tight because of diversions away from the Suez Canal and Red Sea. USMX said in a statement on its website that it is seeking a return to the bargaining table. “USMX has still been unable to secure a meeting with the ILA to resume negotiations on a new master contract,” according to the statement. “USMX continues to meet with its members in preparation for the resumption of negotiations, and it remains committed to working with the ILA leadership on a new agreement.” The ILA is holding Wage Scale Committee meetings today and tomorrow in Teaneck, New Jersey, and union president Harold Daggett insists the union will strike at 00:01 Eastern Time on 1 October if a deal is not reached. “There is a real chance we will not have an agreement in place,” Harold Daggett said in a video shared on the ILA website. “The ILA will definitely hit the streets on 1 October if we do not get the kind of contract we deserve,” Daggett said. Dennis Daggett, ILA executive vice president, said in the video that the two sides are at an impasse and cannot even get past the economics of a new contract. Other issues that the ILA cites as deal-breakers are container royalty (special payments to compensate longshoremen for decreased employment opportunities resulting from the use of containerized shipping), better healthcare benefits, and a ban on all automated and semi-automated services at the ports. Dennis Daggett said the ILA has been working through local agreements between locals and individual ports before focusing on the overall agreement and still has some items to work out at the local level, including Mobile, Alabama, and Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida. Market participants have said a strike by dockworkers would not have much of an impact on liquid chemical tankers. One reason is that most terminals that handle liquid chemical tankers are privately owned and do not necessarily use union labor. Also, tankers do not require as much labor as container or dry cargo vessels, which must be loaded and unloaded with cranes and require labor for forklifts and trucks. But more liquid chemicals are being moved on container ships in isotanks. Focus story by Adam Yanelli Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page