HOUSTON (ICIS)–US crops are moving closer to full maturity with corn acreage now at 94% silking while soybeans have reached 91% blooming, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report. For corn, the pace of acreage reaching the silking phase is just behind the 95% rate from 2023 but is equal to the five-year average of 94%. The amount of crop now at the dough stage is 60%, which matches the 60% level from last year and is above the five-year average of 56%. Corn which has reached the dented phase is at 18%, which is ahead of both the 15% achieved in 2023 and the five-year average of 12%. Corn conditions remain unchanged with there being 3% rated very poor, 7% poor, 23% fair, 51% good and 16% as excellent. For soybeans, there is now 91% of the crop blooming. This does trail the 2023 level of 93% but is slightly ahead of the five-year average of 90%. The amount of acreage setting pods is at 72%, which is behind the 75% from last year, but is above the five-year average of 70%. For soybean conditions, there continues to be 2% listed as very poor, 6% as poor and 24% rated as fair. There is now 55% seen as good with 13% as excellent. In harvesting updates, winter wheat is now at 93% completed with this current pace ahead of the 91% rate from 2023 as well as the five-year average of 91%. Spring wheat harvest has reached 18% completed, which does trail both the 20% level from last year and the five-year average of 21%.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting increased corn and soybean production, according to the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. Corn production is being calculated at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from the July report, while soybeans are projected to be 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million bushels. Looking further at the domestic corn crop, the USDA said the monthly outlook is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports and smaller ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks are now 10 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2023-2024, with higher exports partly offset by reductions in corn used for glucose, dextrose and starch. Corn production is forecasted at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from last month with the agency saying a 700,000 acre decline in harvested area is fully offset by an increase in yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is at a record 183.1 bushels per acre, which is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Among the major producing states there are indications that yields will rise year on year in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota, with yields in Ohio forecasted to be below a year ago. Total US corn use is forecast 60 million bushels higher to now stand at 15.0 billion bushels. Exports for 2024-2025 are being lifted by 75 million bushels to a total of 2.3 billion bushels, which the USDA said reflects US export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising less than use, ending stocks are now calculated to be lower by 24 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The August WASDE said the season-average farm price received by producers is lowered by 10 cents to stand at $4.20 per bushel. For soybeans, the USDA said the outlook includes higher production, exports and ending stocks. Currently production is being forecasted at 4.6 billion bushels, which is an increase of 154 million bushels and is based on higher area and yield. The harvested area is being calculated at 86.3 million acres, which is 1 million acres higher from the July WASDE. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is at 53.2 bushels per acre, which is up 1.2 bushels from last month’s projection. Soybean supplies are being estimated at 4.9 billion bushels, which is 11% higher year on year. The USDA said exports are up 25 million bushels on higher supplies and crush unchanged, with ending stocks now expected to be 560 million bushels, up 125 million bushels from last month. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, down 30 cents from July. The next WASDE report will be released on 12 September.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 9 August. Canada labor tribunal rules on rail strike, orders 13-day cooling-off period The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) on Friday ruled that no rail activities need to be maintained in case of a strike or lockout at rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC). Celanese lifts force majeure on acetic acid, VAM in western Hemisphere Celanese has lifted the force majeure it declared on acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) sold in the western Hemisphere, the US-based acetyls producer said on Thursday. INSIGHT: So far, recession is unlikely despite market turmoil Chemical companies are expecting a lacklustre second half of the year, but, so far, they will unlikely suffer through a recession, despite the spate of pessimistic economic data and the worst stock-market selloff in more than a year. Avient hikes guidance after strong Q2, sees restocking in packaging and consumer Avient has raised its 2024 guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) following stronger-than-expected Q2 results. US chem shares plunge for third day amid fears of hard landing Shares of US-listed chemical companies fell sharply for the third consecutive trading day on Monday amid growing concerns that the US economy could head towards a hard landing and enter a recession. US recession fears fan slide in global stocks US stocks were trading down around 3% mid-morning on Monday, with the major chemical companies posting double-digit falls on growing fears about a recession after the world’s largest economy reported weak economic data.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 9 August. Europe propylene glycol ethers market to focus on imports until year end A balanced propylene glycol ethers market in Europe is widely expected to continue for the remainder of the year with the focus to remain heavily on changes in supply. Supply changes to drive European ethanolamines market into the autumn Supply changes are expected to remain the driving force in the European ethanolamines market for the remainder of the year. Europe ACN market to see seasonal demand shift in H2 2024 Evolving geopolitics-led supply chain developments and the macroeconomic picture will dominate changes to supply and demand in the European acrylonitrile (ACN) market in H2 2024. Europe methanol run rates to remain low to counterbalance demand European methanol demand is likely to remain stable in the second half of 2024, with limited recovery in derivative markets expected. Europe chems stocks tumble amid global sell-off on US economic fears Chemical stocks in Europe slumped in early trading on Monday after a market rout in Asia following bearish US economic data at the end of last week prompted fears of a slowdown.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 9 August 2024. INSIGHT: The future of gasoline demand under India’s new fuel efficiency norms By Man Yiu Tse 08-Aug-24 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s newly proposed Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) norms for passenger cars until 2037 will drive a significant shift towards compressed natural gas (CNG), hybrid, and electric passenger cars, reducing the dominance of gasoline models and influencing the long-term trajectory of gasoline demand. OUTLOOK: Asia Group I base oils supply constraints to persist in H2 amid demand uptick By Michelle Liew 08-Aug-24 11:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s Group I base oils supply, especially for heavy neutrals, is expected to remain tight in H2 2024 despite subdued demand, which may pick up towards September. PODCAST: China’s Third Plenum signals optimism for Asia’s propylene markets By Damini Dabholkar 08-Aug-24 00:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee recently concluded in July, with the CCP underlining the country’s long-term economic strategy. This session, a significant event in China’s economic planning, serves as a guide for both immediate and long-term policies. OUTLOOK: Asia mixed xylenes market could continue to face headwinds By Jasmine Khoo 07-Aug-24 10:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Mixed xylenes (MX) in Asia for both the isomer and solvent grades are expected to continue facing headwinds from various market factors. Asia shares rebound after sharp losses, oil prices rise more than $1/barrel By Nurluqman Suratman 06-Aug-24 18:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian shares rebounded on Tuesday, staging a relief rally after historic losses the previous day, as fresh US economic data for July alleviated recession fears.

TORONTO (ICIS)–The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) on Friday ruled that no rail activities need to be maintained in case of a strike or lockout at rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC). However, the quasi-judicial tribunal ordered a 13-day cooling-off period before a legal rail strike or lockout can begin. The CIRB’s long-awaited ruling does not remove the rail strike threat that has been looming over Canada’s energy, chemicals and other industries for months. A strike by the more than 9,000 CN and CPKC unionized conductors, train operators and engineers could now start towards the end of the month if collective bargaining fails. The railroads and labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) resumed negotiations on Wednesday, 7 August. Federal labor minister Steve MacKinnon on Friday urged the parties to continue negotiating. MacKinnon became labor minister last month after his predecessor resigned suddenly. The former labor minister, Seamus O’Regan, in May referred the industrial dispute to the CIRB for a decision about a strike’s impacts on public safety and health after the rail workers voted for a strike as early as 22 May. The referral suspended the workers’ right to strike because under law a legal strike or lockout could not occur until the board made its decision. The ongoing uncertainties around rail disruptions have affected Canadian chemical, fertilizer and other manufacturers, as they need to make preparations. In recent earnings calls, midstream energy firms Pembina and Keyera, as well as fertilizer major Nutrien and others raised the looming rail strike as a concern, and CN reduced its 2024 earnings guidance, citing the impacts of the labor uncertainty. Canadian chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail, while in the fertilizer industry about 75% of all fertilizers produced and used in Canada is moved by rail. Thumbnail photo source: CN

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Recycled Plastics analyst Corbin Olson and US Recycled Plastics senior editor Emily Friedman discuss the main takeaways from the latest round of corporate quarterly earnings calls, as they relate to the US recycled plastics industry. Key takeaways included: Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies largely showed positive North American sales volumes, though some continue to see negative volumes due to the current inflationary environment. Durables markets, such as pipe and composite decking which use recycled plastic as a raw material, showed moderate progress, with weakness in agricultural and residential end markets. Broader economic softness in construction, automotive and housing continues to exert downwards pressure. Waste management companies largely saw strong earnings, with several investing in recycling collection and sortation infrastructure, but also in downstream in plastics recycling capacity. Republic Services notes progress on their Polymer Centers. Virgin petrochemical players continue to integrate with recycling operations Dow acquires Circulus LyondellBasell pending FID on Houston chemical recycling unit ExxonMobil pledges increased chemical recycling capacity in 2025 Eastman shows progress on operation of Kingsport methanolysis facility, lowers earnings guidance PET sales volumes increase, amid weaker market pricing; R-PET forecasts remain strong for future demand Additional questions or concerns? Please contact us.

Baltic countries notify Russia and Belarus of intention to unplug from BRELL area ENTSO-E synchronization scheduled for early 2025 to link Baltic countries to continental Europe Poland, Baltic countries working on backup line BUCHAREST (ICIS)–The three Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are preparing to synchronize with the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) system early next year as they are taking the final steps to decouple from the Russian and Belarusian grids. Their electricity transmission system operators Elering, AST and Litgrid, have already notified Moscow and Minsk of their intention to unplug from the BRELL area (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). The deadline to send the notification was August 7. The BRELL agreement under which they had been connected with Belarus, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Russia itself since Soviet days is due to expire on February 7 2025 and the three Baltic operators are planning to disconnect from it altogether the following day. The interconnection with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area has been scheduled for February 9. The interconnection with the continental grid operating under the umbrella of the ENTSO-E is considered of strategic importance for the three countries and will be carried out through the 400kV LitPol link, connecting Lithuania and Poland. The line is currently operational and has a bidirectional transfer capacity of 500MW. However, once the synchronization is completed, fully aligning the three Baltic countries with the European grid, the capacity is expected to increase. The capacity that could be made available for commercial exchanges is yet to be decided. SYNCHRONIZATION TESTS Lithuania is connected with Latvia, which is in turn connected with Estonia. The three Baltic countries are expected to carry out preliminary tests before completing the synchronization. Lithuania and Estonia are connected via back-to-back lines with Sweden and Finland respectively. The aggregated capacity of the two lines to Finland and one line to Sweden is 1.7GW. Synchronization is to take place via the LitPol line, with other countries synchronizing through the Lithuanian system to which they are connected. Susanne Nies, energy expert at Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin, a Germany-based think tank, told ICIS that the test would involve decoupling from the grids of Belarus, Kaliningrad and Russia itself and operating in full isolation for a period of time. The island mode test is required to ensure the countries can operate at a stable frequency of 50Hz in conditions of peak winter demand. The three Baltic countries’ aggregated peakload capacity is around 4.5GW and their baseload capacity is around 1.68GW. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were fully prepared for the island mode test, according to Nies, having deployed all the necessary infrastructure and IT systems needed to strengthen and stabilize the grids ahead of the synchronization. She added that Kaliningrad, which becomes an island after synchronization, has passed two tests successfully and can be fully self-sufficient, providing electricity supplies to its one million people from two combined cycle gas turbine power plants. Nies, who has been following the Baltic project since it was launched in 2015, said the purpose of the synchronization with ENTSO-E was primarily to guarantee security of supply rather than commercial exchanges. For now, the existing line will be exempt from the EU’s 70% rule, she added, which enters in force in 2025 and requires electricity grid operators to make available 70% of the transmission capacity for cross-border trading. BACKUP There is also a need to build an additional line to ensure that in case of risks to the existing connecting infrastructure or generating capacity in the Baltic area, the additional line would provide backup, Nies added. The Baltic operators and their Polish counterpart, PSE, are now considering whether the backup line should be built along railroad or motorway connections, both of which are being developed between Poland and Lithuania. Nies said plans to build the Harmony Link, a subsea cable connecting Lithuania to Poland, were no longer being considered amid security fears following suspected attacks on subsea energy infrastructure in the Baltic Sea in recent years. High-voltage line solutions have also become more expensive. Baltic synchronization has been supported by the EU, with funding from the Connecting Europe Facility amounting to €1.2 billion and covering around 75% of the project’s eligible costs.

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt Tudball discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: 3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference 7 November in Berlin, Germany Colourless (C) R-PET UK flake price range narrows Turkish bales, flake prices rising in August Market participants looking ahead to September and end of holiday period