TORONTO (ICIS)–US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to quickly move forward with his proposed 25% tariff on all imports, including oil and energy, from Canada and Mexico after taking office on Monday 20 January. Tariffs to hurt US industry and consumers US refiners rely on Canadian crude Canada oil embargo could jeopardize national unity So far, Trump has given no indication that he may exempt Canada’s oil from the tariffs. Canada supplies more than 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, accounting for the majority of US oil imports. The oil goes mainly to US Midwest refineries, such as BP’s Whiting plant in Indiana, that are configured to process heavy Canadian crude. The move could be felt in the US as well as Canada. IMPACTS ON US The US Midwest refiners buy the Canadian oil at a discount, a price advantage they would lose with the tariffs. The refiners will not be able to quickly secure alternative sources of heavy crude, and neither will they be able to quickly reconfigure their processing units to lighter oil. The tariffs will raise US domestic energy prices, in particular gasoline prices – running counter to Trump’s campaign promises to address inflation and reduce costs for consumers. US inflation expectations have already been rising, partly because of the planned tariffs. Higher inflation expectations could prompt the US Federal Reserve to delay further rate cuts and possibly even raise rates, slowing the economy. The imported cheap Canadian crude frees up higher-priced US oil for export to other nations, allowing the US to run a trade surplus in oil with those countries, an advantage that may be lost if tariffs are imposed. ICIS feedstocks and fuels analyst Barin Wise said that it was hard to believe that Trump would place tariffs on Canadian oil as this would cause a big problem for US refiners processing the oil, with very limited alternatives to run in their plants. “This would cause prices to rise, which is the last thing Trump would want to see,” Wise said. “I suppose we will know for sure shortly.” IMPACTS OF OIL EMBARGO ON CANADA There was much discussion this week in Canada about responding to the US tariffs by imposing an oil embargo or putting an export tax on oil. However, analysts noted that those counter-measures would have self-defeating impacts on Canada: Producers in oil-rich Alberta province ship oil to eastern Canada on a pipeline system that passes through Wisconsin and Michigan (Enbridge’s Line 5) before re-entering Canada near the Sarnia refining and petrochemicals production hub in Ontario. In case of a Canadian oil embargo, Trump would likely stop the flow of Canadian oil on Line 5 to destinations in eastern Canada. As a result, an embargo would not just hit the US but cause a supply squeeze and higher energy prices in Ontario and Quebec, which are home to much of Canada’s auto, aerospace and other manufacturing. An oil embargo could also give new life to the Michigan state government’s efforts to shut down Line 5, because of environmental concerns. Canada could use rail to ship oil from Alberta to eastern Canada, but this would be expensive and there is not enough railcar capacity to replace the lost pipeline volumes. Canada could import oil through Montreal and other Canadian East Coast ports to replace the Alberta oil, but that would also be expensive. Furthermore, the flow of a pipeline (Enbridge’s Line 9) supplying refineries in Ontario and Quebec goes from west to east, and not from east to west. A flow reversal would be a costly undertaking. Once the US Midwest refiners have reconfigured their refineries to lighter oil or found alternative sources of heavy crude, they may not want to go back to Canadian crude if the tariffs are lifted later. Alberta, as well as Saskatchewan, would lose substantial revenues from their oil exports to the US. Both provinces have said they oppose an embargo. CANADA MUST AVOID UNITY CRISIS However, there is much more at stake for Canada. The premier (governor) of Alberta, Danielle Smith, has warned that the country’s national unity would be jeopardized if the federal government imposes an embargo. She refused to endorse a joint statement by the federal government and 12 of Canadas 13 provincial premiers at a summit this week, on Canada’s position in facing the US tariff threat. The statement is broad and does not even mention oil, but Smith said she could not endorse it as it did not rule out an embargo or an oil export tax. “Alberta will simply not agree to export tariffs on our energy or other products, nor do we support a ban on exports of these same products,” she said on social media. Smith added that an oil embargo was also unacceptable as politicians in eastern Canada, she claimed, had blocked the Energy East oil pipeline project to ship oil from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec and to export markets. The cancellation of Energy East deprived Alberta of an important opportunity to reduce its dependence on the US market, she argued. She failed to mention, however, the Trans Mountain oil pipeline. The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau bought and expanded Tans Mountain by nearly 600,000 bbl/day, enabling oil shipments from Alberta to an export terminal near Vancouver. Trudeau noted this week that the government did this to the benefit of Alberta’s oil industry, with funding from all of Canada’s taxpayers. Smith has often disagreed with the federal government over oil and environmental issues. In 2022 she put in place an “Alberta Sovereignty Act” to challenge federal laws. The act has not yet been reviewed by Canada’s Supreme Court. Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper, siding with Smith, warned against imposing an oil embargo or other oil export restrictions. Such measures would incite renewed separatist sentiment in Alberta, the paper said in an editorial on Thursday and reminded readers of the alienation caused in Alberta by former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program (NEP) in the early 1980s. (Pierre was the father of Justin Trudeau). The NEP was seen by Alberta as an unfair attempt to redistribute its oil wealth to Ontario, Quebec and other eastern provinces. Instead of an embargo, Canada needed to use targeted tariffs that “inflict the greatest possible political damage on Mr Trump”, and it should particularly target exports from US swing states, the paper said. Longer-term, Canada needed to have a fresh look at projects such as Energy East to reduce its dependence on the US market, it added. However, Trudeau and Ontario premier Doug Ford insisted that Alberta put Canada first, ahead of its own needs. All options must be on the table, including an embargo, in case the trade conflict escalates, they said. Commentators said that even if Trump exempts Canadian oil, Canada should consider an oil export tax as it could not allow a large part of its economy being devastated by the US tariffs while Alberta does business as usual with the US. Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s opposition Conservatives, has yet to state whether he would use an oil embargo as a weapon in a trade dispute. The issue of Canada’s response to the US tariff challenge is expected to be at the center of the upcoming election campaign. Elections that must be held before October but will likely be called earlier. The Conservatives are far ahead of Trudeau’s Liberals in opinion polls on the elections. Furthermore, the Liberals are in disarray. Trudeau last week announced his resignation, and the Liberals have opened the process of selecting a new leader who will then also take over as the new prime minister until the elections. Meanwhile, the federal government has prepared a list of US products to be targeted with potential retaliatory tariffs. Details will be released only after Trump moves ahead with the tariffs, officials said. According to public broadcaster CBC the list includes certain US-made plastics products. In Canada’s chemical industry, trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) this week joined the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and others in forming a new group to jointly confront the imminent US tariff threat. Canada’s chemicals and plastics industry accounts for more than Canadian dollar (C$) $100 billion (US$69 billion) in annual shipments. Nearly two-thirds of those shipments are exported to the US, with a reciprocal value returning to Canada from the US, according to Ottawa-based CIAC, which speaks for Canada’s chemical and plastics industry (US$1=C$1.44) Insight by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail photo of Imperial Oil’s Cold Lake oil sands site in Alberta; the Toronto-listed ExxonMobil affiliate is one of Canada’s largest oil companies, and it also produces petrochemicals. Photo source: Imperial Oil.

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Flake sellers see more positive start to 2025 based on January volumes Feedstock bale prices still a key issue Buyers yet to accept higher prices for January February price talks not yet underway

LONDON (ICIS)–Global economic growth this year is expected to increase modestly compared to 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, as stronger expectations of US growth offset an increasing bearish outlook for Europe. Global GDP is expected to increase 3.3% this year, according to IMF’s latest economic outlook. Representing a 0.1 percentage point increase from the fund’s October 2024 outlook, the uptick is driven by a more robust forecast for the US offsetting weaker expectations for the eurozone and the Middle East. The US economy is expected to expand 2.7% this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the IMF’s October forecast, driven by a strong wealth effect – where consumers spend more as the value of their assets rise –  and supportive financial conditions. Eurozone growth for the year is expected at 1%,  a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from the IMF’s previous estimate, as continued weakness for manufacturing and exports continued to weigh on the bloc. Industrial weakness, political volatility and policy uncertainty all weighed on eurozone growth expectations, with substantially weaker expectations for many core economies, particularly Germany and France. Germany’s 2025 GDP is expected to expand by 0.3%, a 0.5 percentage point downgrade compared to October, while projected French growth of 0.8%represents a 0.3 percentage point markdown. China’s economy is expected to grow 4.6% this year, a 0.1 percentage point increase on the IMF’s October projections but below official targets of 5% and a decline from 2024, with 2026 expected to be weaker still at 4.5%. A $1.4 trillion stimulus package intended to alleviate local government debt burdens drove the modest uptick in the IMF’s growth expectations for the country. China’s growth rate next year is expected to be supported by increases to the statutory retirement age, which is expected to slow the decline in labor supply, the fund added. Moves by the OPEC+ alliance of countries to extend production cuts has resulted in  1.3 percentage point downgrade for Saudi Arabia growth expectations, to 3.3%. This downgrade also drove down growth projections for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as a whole, with the IMF cutting 0.5 percentage points of 2025 regional growth expectations to 3.5% Strong non-OPEC crude supplies and weak China demand are likely to drive a 2.6% decline in energy commodity prices, substantially below previous estimates, according to the IMF, while commodity prices overall are likely increase. Latin American growth expectations were  unchanged from previous IMF estimates at 2.5%. Despite stronger than previously projected US growth expectations, fresh tariff measures introduced by incoming President Donald Trump could hit global growth expectations in the mid-term, the IMF said. Fresh tariff measures could place upward pressure on inflation, along with the cyclic market positions of many key economies are more conducive to higher inflation today than in 2016, the IMF added. Restrictions on difficult-to-substitute raw materials and intermediate goods as a result of US tariffs or retaliatory measures could also heat up markets. “The risk of renewed inflationary pressures could prompt central banks to raise policy rates and intensify monetary policy divergence. Higher-for-even-longer interest rates could worsen fiscal, financial, and external risks,” the IMF said in the January world economic outlook. “ A stronger US dollar…could alter capital flow patterns and global imbalances and complicate macroeconomic trade-offs.” Focus article by Tom Brown Thumbnail photo: The bull on Wall Street (Source: Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Mitsui Chemicals and Mitsubishi Chemical are studying a potential tie-up on supplying phenol-related products in response to poor domestic demand and oversupply conditions, the Japanese firms said on Friday. These products include phenol, acetone, α-methylstyrene, bisphenol A (BPA) and methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK), they said in a joint statement. The two companies “will jointly consider approaches for maintaining product supply during regular major maintenance or facility issues, as well as for the efficient operation of both companies’ tanks”. The launch of multiple new production facilities across Asia – particularly in China – since 2022 has resulted in a significant oversupply of these products. This oversupply, coupled with weak domestic demand, has caused a market slump. Mitsui Chemicals in April last year said that it will close its 190,000 tonnes/year phenol plant at the company’s production site in Ichihara by fiscal year 2026 (year to March 2027) due to declining profitability. Mitsui Chemicals currently produces phenol at three locations: Ichihara in Chiba, Takaishi in Osaka and Shanghai in China. “Going forward, the company [Mitsui Chemicals] intends to maintain stable product supply by creating a highly capital-efficient, reliably profitable phenol chain centered around the 200,000-ton capacity phenol plant at its Osaka Works,” the joint statement noted. Mitsubishi Chemical, which operates a 280,000 tonne/year phenol plant at its Ibaraki Plant and produces derivatives like BPA, is also taking steps to improve its competitiveness. These steps include the closure in March 2024 of its 120,000 tonne/year BPA plant in Kurosaki, Fukuoka. Mitsubishi Chemical has another 100,000 tonne/year BPA plant in Kashima that will continue operating.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian spot market for butadiene (BD) saw a bullish start to 2025, as prices in both Chinese yuan and US dollar terms surged dramatically. In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Ai Teng Lim and industry analyst Elaine Zhang come together to discuss the factors moving prices and to take a peek into what may lie ahead for downstream demand. Domestic China prices surge on supply factors, raising imports too Uncertainties prevalent on whether downstream demand will hold out Supply outlook uneven between China and wider Asia

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China posted a 5% full-year 2024 economic growth, in line with the government’s target, on the back of a strong Q4 performance, official data showed on Friday. The GDP growth last year, however, still represents a slowdown from the 5.2% expansion recorded in 2023. In October-December 2024, annualized GDP grew at a faster pace of 5.4%, compared with 4.6% in the previous quarter, spurred by stimulus measures, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday. Despite the strong Q4 growth, the world’s second-biggest economy still faces difficulties and challenges amid widening impacts from changing external environment and inadequate domestic demand, NBS said. It added that the country will employ more pro-active and effective macroeconomic policies to expand demand, promote innovation, stabilize expectations and drive growth. China is a major importer of petrochemicals but its self-sufficiency has grown significantly over the years. Heavy capacity additions have turned the country into a net exporter of selected petrochemicals, including purified terephthalic acid (PTA). (adds thumbnail image, paragraphs 6-7) Thumbnail image: Steel Chimney, Huai’an, China – 03 January 2025 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global commodities group Trafigura, in collaboration with US fertilizer producer CF Industries, announced the completion of the first co-loaded ammonia and propane shipment operation of its kind. In early January, the Green Power medium gas carrier completed a single voyage from the US to Europe loaded with ammonia from CF Industries and with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in separate tanks. The co-loaded vessel project was intended in part as a demonstration of capabilities needed for the efficient and economic transport of low-carbon ammonia to supply ports that may not require a full vessel of ammonia. The companies said the ability to co-load low-carbon ammonia with LPG is one pathway to supporting the scale up in availability of low emission fuels. It was noted that low-carbon ammonia continuing to be a leading alternative fuel candidate for applications such as coal co-firing as well as supporting the marine shipping industry transition from heavy fuel oil to alternatives with a lower-carbon intensity. “We transport LPG and ammonia from the US to Europe on similar ships on a regular basis,” said Patricio Norris, Trafigura global head of ammonia and LPG. “We can improve the economics for our customers and reduce emissions with fewer voyages by safely co-loading ammonia and LPG in the same vessel.” The ammonia was loaded onto the Green Power at CF Industries Donaldsonville, Louisiana, complex and LPG was loaded into separate tanks of the vessel in Corpus Christi, Texas. CF Industries said strict segregation requirements ensured that any crossover of liquid, condensate or vapor was prevented. After crossing the LPG was discharged via a ship-to-ship operation in the Mediterranean for use in domestic heating and the ammonia was discharged at Tees Port for CF Fertilisers UK. “We appreciate the partnership we have with Trafigura as we take steps together to help prepare for demand growth of low-carbon ammonia and the expected transition of the marine shipping industry to low-carbon ammonia as a fuel,” said Bert Frost, CF Industries executive vice president. “Ammonia is safely transported around the world by vessels daily, and this voyage reinforces the flexibility we have to serve emerging low-carbon ammonia demand as we innovate shipping methods with industry-leaders such as Trafigura.” This shipment follows Trafigura’s first ship-to-ship transfer of ammonia in July 2024 for CF Industries. The fertilizer producer is currently progressing a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project at Donaldsonville which will enable it to produce substantial volumes of low-carbon ammonia. The CCS project is expected to start-up during 2025.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Brazil Potash announced it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Potassio do Brasil, a subsidiary of the company, and fertilizer trading company Keytrade AG for potential offtake of up to 1 million short tons/year of potash from the Autazes Potash project. Located in the state of Amazonas with the proposed mine and processing facilities located 75 miles southeast of the state capital Manaus, the estimated $2.5 billion project would become Brazil’s largest potash project. The company said the initial annual production is projected be 2.4 million short tons yearly and believes it could potentially supply approximately 17% of the potash demand within the country with future plans to double output. Brazil Potash envisions not only reduce Brazil’s reliance on potash imports but also mitigating approximately 1.4 million short tons/year of emissions. “This MOU with Keytrade represents another important step towards Brazil Potash’s development and validates our strategic position in Brazil as a potential premier domestic potash supplier,” said Adriano Espeschit, Potassio do Brasil president. “Combined with our existing offtake agreement with AMAGGI, we have now secured potential commitments for approximately 1.5 million short tons of our planned 2.4 million short tons of annual potash production, providing strong foundational support for project financing.” The company noted that Brazil is critical for global food security as the country has among the highest amounts of fresh water, arable land and an ideal climate for year-round crop growth. Yet it is viewed as being vulnerable as it imports over 95% of its potash despite having what is anticipated to be one of the world’s largest undeveloped potash basins. Currently it is planned that the potash produced will be transported primarily using low-cost river barges through an inland system in partnership with logistical operators Amaggi.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Indonesian rupiah fell to its weakest level in more than six months on Thursday following an unexpected loosening of monetary policy on 15 January to spur growth in southeast Asia’s largest economy. Rupiah weakened due to US policy uncertainty under Trump 2025 GDP growth forecast trimmed to 4.7-5.5% Inflation to remain within 1.5-3.5% target in 2025 The rupiah (Rp) was extending losses on Thursday, falling to as low as Rp16,383 against the US dollar in early trade. At 07:41 GMT, the rupiah was trading at Rp16,376 to the US dollar. In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% on 15 January. BI also reduced its deposit facility rate by 25bps to 5.00% and lending facility rate to 6.50%. “The decision is consistent with low projected inflation in 2025 and 2026…maintaining the rupiah exchange rate in line with economic fundamentals to control inflation within the target range and the need to bolster economic growth,” BI said in a statement. BI last slashed interest rates in September last year for the first time in over three years. However, it subsequently maintained a steady policy stance at later meetings to stabilize the rupiah, which had come under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US policy under Donald Trump. “The rate cut was unexpected as BI previously emphasized that its near-term policy stance is aimed at rupiah stability amid strong US Dollar,” Malaysia-based equity research firm Kenanga said in a note on Thursday. “The shift reflects a focus on boosting growth amid slowing domestic expansion, low inflation, and rising global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, China’s weak recovery, and policy changes in the US,” it said. BI is expected to maintain an easing stance to bolster economic growth, Kenanga said, but concerns regarding rupiah stability may prompt a gradual and cautious approach, particularly as the US Federal Reserve may slow its rate cuts due to the resilience of the US economy. “We expect the rupiah to gradually strengthen by the end of 2025 on the expectations of lower US policy rate and an improving domestic economy, it said. “Nonetheless, we expect two more cuts, bringing BI’s policy rate to reach 5.25% in 2025.” SLOWER GROWTH PROJECTED BI on 15 January revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.7-5.5%, slightly lower than its previous projection of 4.8-5.6%. This downward revision is attributed to weaker exports, subdued household demand, and lower private investment. Indonesia is a net importer of several petrochemicals, including polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), as well as the world’s largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer – a key oleochemicals feedstock. Like most in Asia, Indonesia is export-oriented economy. Its full-year exports rose by 2.3% year on year to $264.7 billion, while imports increased by 5.3% to $233.66 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of around $31 billion, official data showed. For the month of December alone, the country’s trade surplus narrowed to $2.24 billion, marking the lowest surplus since July, as exports to key markets, including China, India, and Taiwan declined. Total exports for the month were up by 4.8% year on year at $23.46bn, while imports grew at a faster rate of 11.1% to $21.22 billion. For 2024, growth is expected to settle slightly below the midpoint of the 4.7-5.5% range, reflecting softer domestic demand. Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.05% in 2023, slowing from the 5.31% expansion the previous year due to sluggish exports. BI in its statement highlighted that the global economy is experiencing growth divergence, with the US exceeding projections due to fiscal stimuli and technological investments, while Europe, China, Japan, and India face sluggish growth. The global economic growth for 2025 is expected to reach 3.2%, driven by the strong US economy, it noted. However, US policy and inward-looking trade policies are prolonging disinflation and strengthening expectations of dovish monetary policy, leading to increased global financial market uncertainty, BI said. “Global economic developments require a strong policy response, therefore, to mitigate the adverse impacts of global spillovers, maintain stability and drive domestic economic growth,” it added. In terms of inflation, CPI inflation averaged 2.3% in 2024, well within BI’s target range of 1.5-3.5%. Inflation is expected to remain within this target in 2025, supported by ample domestic capacity to meet demand. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman