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Crude Oil15-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s industrial output
growth in July slowed to a four-month low of
5.1%, aggravating concerns about continued
manufacturing slowdown, with a growing set of
data suggesting the world’s second-largest
economy is struggling to gain momentum.
H2 industrial production momentum to soften
further
July retail sales grow 2.7% year on year
Property prices extend decline despite
government measures
Official manufacturing purchasing managers’
index (PMI) remained in contraction mode for the
third month in July, while exports
weakened.
“This slowdown was foreseeable given the last
few months of weak PMI data,” said Lynn Song,
chief economist for Greater China at Dutch
banking and financial information services
provider ING.
“As export demand starts to slow and tariffs
come into effect, the momentum may moderate
further,” Song said.
In July, China’s exports rose by 7.2% year on
year, a slowdown from June’s 8.6% growth due in
part to the EU’s imposition of higher import
tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The new
duty ranges from 17.4% to 37.6% and took effect
on 5 July.
The July official manufacturing PMI was 49.4,
below the 50 threshold for expansion.
Industrial production has been one of the key
drivers for growth in the first half of 2024,
but momentum looks to be softening in the
second half of the year, Song said.
In July, China’s auto manufacturing expansion
slowed to 4.4% year on year, a marked decline
from the 9.0% year-to-date growth and a far cry
from the double-digit gains of previous years,
he noted.
Auto manufacturing growth has now fallen below
the overall industry growth rate for the first
time since May 2022, signaling a potential
turning point for the sector, according to
Song.
“Combined with a more challenging base effect,
we expect that policies to boost other areas of
the economy will be needed if China is to
achieve the 5% growth target for the year,” he
added.
In contrast, China’s retail sales – a gauge for
consumption – showed signs of revival last
month, growing by 2.7% year on year,
accelerating from the 2% growth in the previous
month, official data showed.
This uptick followed a series of interest rate
cuts implemented by the People’s Bank of China
(PBoC) throughout July.
The cut in central bank’s short-term seven-day
reverse repo interest rate to 1.70% was
the first rate cut since August 2023 and came
on the heels of a closed-door meeting of the
Communist Party’s Central Committee, hinting at
a coordinated effort to stimulate economic
growth.
China’s Q2 annualized GDP growth came in at
4.7%, falling short of expectations,
re-igniting concerns that the government’s
full-year growth target of around 5% may not be
met.
This has prompted renewed calls for
policymakers to implement additional stimulus
measures to boost the economy.
“The economy is on the course for a weak start
to H2,” Japan’s Nomura Global Markets Research
said in a note.
“Both the Caixin and
official manufacturing PMIs indicate a broad
slowdown in manufacturing activity, weighed on
by sluggish domestic demand, as the property
correction persists,” it said.
“We expect more meaningful policy measures
after September, when concerns over the growth
slowdown may become more elevated.”
The Chinese government has taken gradual steps
to stabilize the housing market and revitalize
consumer demand but has refrained from
launching large-scale stimulus packages.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has shifted
shifted focus towards high value-added
industrial growth to bolster China’s economy
amid a three-year property slump that has
negatively impacted household consumption and
investor confidence.
However, China’s property prices continued to
decline in July.
New home prices last month dipped 0.65% month
on month, largely unchanged from June’s 0.67%
drop, data from the NBS showed.
Secondary market prices in July also fell,
slipping by 0.80% over the same period.
“It is increasingly looking like the property
market will continue to need more policy
support to establish a bottom,” ING’s Song
noted.
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Polypropylene15-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS is introducing a new
monthly domestic polypropylene (PP) block
copolymer price index for South Korea starting
from 16 August.
This spot assessment on a delivered (DEL) basis
is ICIS’ first monthly index dedicated to the
South Korean market.
The new quote will track locally traded PP
block copolymer resins with melt index (MI)
between 30 to 60 that are mainly used for
automotive applications.
The launch of the quote is motivated by calls
for more information and greater clarity on the
domestic market conditions from South Korea’s
automotive industry as local prices deviate
from export values.
Previously, market participants have been using
CFR (cost & freight) CMP (China Main Port)
and prices of upstream chemicals like
naphtha’s, as reference points for domestic
discussions.
“ICIS has developed an index that is relevant
for the South Korean domestic market,” ICIS
Asia managing editor Peh Soo Hwee said.
“This is in line with changing industry
developments as taking direction from overseas
markets such as China is no longer
fit-for-purpose given the very different
dynamics in Korea,” she said.
Polypropylene14-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Weak growth in the world’s
population will slow economic growth, tighten
labor markets and likely prolong the global
glut in polyolefins, according to ICIS
analysts.
For polyethylene (PE), around 135 billion lb
(61 million tonnes) of additional PE capacity
should start up from 2019-2028, versus demand
growth of 87 billion lb during the same period,
said Harrison Jacoby, ICIS director of PE. He
made his comments at ICIS networking briefings
in Houston and New York.
The typical world-class PE plant produces 1
billion lb/year, Jacoby said. That represents
an excess of 48 PE plants.
The demand gap is similarly stark for
polypropylene (PP).
About 50 million tonnes of additional PP
capacity should start up from 2019-2028, versus
demand growth of 30 million tonnes, said Ramesh
Iyer, director of polymers Americas at ICIS.
The typical global scale plant produces 1
billion lb/year, he said. That represents an
excess of about 45 global plants.
IT COULD TAKE YEARS TO GROW OUT OF THE
GLUTWithout plant shutdowns, it
could take several years for the world to grow
out of its current supply glut.
Demographers expect the world’s population will
peak sooner and at a lower level than estimates
from five to 10 years ago, said Kevin Swift,
ICIS senior economist for global chemicals.
In about 20 countries, populations are
declining, he said. Some countries in Latin
America are tracking the demographic trends of
Europe at a lag.
In China, the biggest market for PE and PP,
weak demographics are compounding the effects
of youth unemployment, low consumer confidence
and the bust in the property market, Swift
said.
He expects actual economic growth in China to
be stagnant. Other economists typically
subtract three to five points from official
Chinese GDP statistics
“The economy is growing slowly, if it all,” he
said.
In the US, Swift warned that labor markets will
likely remain tight because of slower
population growth. He noted that for every two
Baby Boomer workers who are retiring, one
member of the Generation Z cohort will join the
labor market.
Population growth will be concentrated in
countries in the Africa, the Middle East and
southeast Asia regions, Swift said.
LOWER INFLATION RAISES PROSPECTS OF
RATE CUTSIn the US, Swift noted
some signs of improvement. One measure of
inflation,
the producer price index (PPI), came in
below expectations. Another measure,
the consumer price index (CPI) came in at
expectations.
Both readings greatly increase the likelihood
that the Federal Reserve will start lowering
its benchmark interest rate at its next meeting
in mid-September.
The expectations of a rate cut have already
started to lower mortgage rates on home loans,
which should boost sales by making housing more
affordable.
Ultimately, that will trickle down to demand
for plastics and chemicals used in house
construction and in home furniture and
appliances.
Longer term, members of the millennial
demographic cohort are reaching their prime age
to buy homes, Swift said. That, combined with
lower rates, should provide a tremendous
tailwind for the housing market for the rest of
the decade before reversing itself.
LIKELY PLANT
SHUTDOWNSAny growth in the US
will not alleviate what will likely be the need
to rationalize polyolefin capacity. The
magnitude of the global supply glut is too
large.
Some producers have already started to
rationalize higher cost PE and PP capacity, and
Jacoby and Iyer expect the trend to continue.
In the US, PE plants will remain competitive
because of their feedstock advantage, Jacoby
said.
Focus article by Al Greenwood
Thumbnail shows the construction of a
chemical plant.
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Ammonia14-Aug-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture
(USDA) has published its World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report for
August.
The August report forecasts an increase in corn
and soybean production with corn at 15.1
billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from the
July report, and soybeans projected at 4.6
billion bushels, up by 154 million bushels.
Senior editors Mark Milam and Sylvia Traganida
discuss the latest estimates, and take an
in-depth look at current trends in the US
market.
Styrene14-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producers Hanwha
Total Energies and Yeochon NCC are withdrawing their
request for an antidumping probe on styrene
monomer (SM) imports from China, based on a
petition they filed with the Korea Trade
Commission on 12 August.
The probe, which was initiated upon requests
from Korean producers, has been ongoing since 9
April and was supposed to end on 8 September.
This petition withdrawal by the two companies
is likely to conclude the four-month ADD
investigation which have triggered significant
concerns of Asian market players on a potential
change in intra-Asia SM trade landscape since
South Korea is China’s biggest export market
for SM.
Expectations heightened in June that Korea will
launch antidumping duties (ADDs) on
China-origin SM after China extended
its five-year ADDs on SM imports from
three origins, including Korea.
KTC had held
discussions and hearings in June to
determine whether Chinese SM imports are
causing material damage to Korea’s domestic
market.
China is no longer a regular importer of Korean
SM, but some market players were expecting
China’s ADD extension could trigger
retaliations by Korea as a political
countermeasure.
Korea’s probe on SM imports from China has
faced strong opposition from local end-users in
downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene
(ABS) industry which rely on feedstock from
China to run their plants.
During the period of June 2023 to June 2024,
South Korea accounted for around 74% of China’s
total SM exports, according to ICIS Supply and
Demand Database.
Although Chinese cargoes are no longer expected
to be subject to Korean ADDs in near term, high
logistics costs and elevated domestic spot
prices in China could continue to hamper
China-Korea SM talks.
Some Chinese suppliers may also continue
searching for alternative markets to diversify
their sales portfolio.
Focus article by Luffy Wu
Thumbnail image: At Taicang Port in China
on 12 January
2024.(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Styrene14-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producers Hanwha
Total Energies and Yeochon NCC are withdrawing
their request for an antidumping probe on
styrene monomer (SM) imports from China, based
on a petition they filed with the Korea Trade
Commission on 12 August.
The probe, which was initiated upon requests
from Korean producers, has been ongoing since 9
April and was supposed to end on 8 September.
Expectations heightened in June that Korea will
launch antidumping duties (ADDs) on
China-origin SM after China extended its five-year
ADDs on SM imports from three origins,
including Korea.
Polyethylene14-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on Asian
Chemical Connections by John Richardson.
The ICIS data continue to tell us that we are
facing the biggest shake-up in the modern
history of the petrochemicals industry.
Let’s today use high-density polyethylene
(HDPE)
China accounted for just 6% of global HDPE
demand in 1992 although it had a 22% share of
the global population. By the end of 2024, we
expect China to generate 33% of global demand
from an 18% share of the population.
For far too long, our industry overlooked the
warning signs: China’s rapidly ageing
population, its real estate bubble and the
geopolitical split with the West.
It was only a question of when rather than
whether the Chinese economy would enter a more
challenging phase. We can see from the ICIS
data on spreads and margins that the “when”
arrived in late 2021 – the Evergrande Moment.
CFR China HDPE injection grade price spreads
over CFR Japan naphtha costs have averaged just
$212/tonne since the end of Petrochemicals
Supercycle – from January 2022 onwards. This
compares with the $487/tonne average during the
Supercycle – 1992 until 2021.
So, spreads need to rebound by 130% to get back
to where they were during the Supercycle.
This year, as we can see from the chart in
today’s post, they have fallen to a new record
low.
Global capacity was added largely on the
assumption that China’s HDPE demand growth
would be higher than is going to be the case.
My highly unscientific “wisdom of crowds”
approach, which involved talking to lots of
people, suggests that the consensus view was
that China’s petrochemicals demand growth in
general would be at 6-8% over the long term.
Low single digit growth now seems more likely.
Global HDPE operating rates were very healthy
during the Petrochemicals Supercycle. Including
two years after the end of the Supercycle (the
1992-2023 period), we estimate they averaged
88%.
We forecast a global operating rate of just 75%
in 2024-2030.
Global capacity would have to grow by just
173,000 tonnes a year versus our base case
assumption of 2.6m tonnes a year if 2024-2030
were instead to reach 88%.
Rationalisation of capacity in disadvantaged
regions such as Europe and Asia ex-China seems
likely as China, the Middle East and the US
carry on building.
So much for what we know. What about the
“unknown unknowns”? Here are just two of them:
What will be the size of China’s population
by the end of the century and therefore its
HDPE and other resins demand? Estimates range
from 633m to 525m or even less.
Can China fully maintain its role as the
Workshop of the World? Or will reshoring and
trade tensions eventually lead to a major
decline in Chinese exports?
Facts, or rather data, are sacred. So should be
rigorous scenario planning as “one size fits
all” views of the future won’t get us anywhere.
Neither will a repeat of the conventional
thinking that got us into this mess in the
first place.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Petrochemicals14-Aug-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to
beef up its petrochemical production capacity
to 14m tonnes/year by 2030 which will increase
the state-owned company’s petrochemical
intensity index (PII) to 15%, nearly triple its
current level, company chair SM Vaidya said.
Total petrochemical investments to reach
Rs1.2 trillion
Domestic industry projected to grow at
8-10% over the next few years
Local demand estimated to hit $1 trillion
by 2040
Petrochemical projects worth Indian rupees (Rs)
300 billion ($3.6 billion) are under various
stages of implementation, while feasibility
studies are ongoing on projects worth Rs900
billion, based on IOC’s annual report for the
fiscal year ending March 2024.
The company’s current petrochemical production
capacity stands at 4.28 million tonnes/year,
based on its annual report for the fiscal year
ending March 2024.
IOC’s PII refers to the percentage of crude oil
that is directly converted into chemicals.
“We are integrating petrochemicals into our
refining operations,” IOC chairman SM Vaidya
said at the company’s annual general meeting on
9 August.
“This oil-to-chemical approach will enrich our
value chain, meet rising petrochemical demand,
reduce import reliance, and insulate the bottom
line from the impacts of oil price
fluctuations,” he said.
By 2026, its refining capacity will have
increased by more than 25% from the current
70.3 million tonnes/year to 87.9 million
tonnes/year, Vaidya said at IOC’s annual
general meeting on 9 August.
By the end of the decade, IOC expects its
refining capacity to be 107.4 million
tonnes/year, according to the annual report
released on 18 July.
“In 2023-24, we successfully commissioned the
first phase of naphtha cracker expansion and
paraxylene-purified terephthalic acid (PX-PTA)
revamp project in Panipat and an ethylene
glycol plant at Paradip. These have propelled
our PII to 6.1%,” Vaidya said.
In November 2023, IOC increased the capacity at
the naphtha cracker at its Panipat refinery
complex from 857,000 tonnes/year to 947,000
tonnes/year.
Following the PX-PTA revamp at its Panipat
refinery, IOC has increased its PX production
to 460,000 tonnes/year and PTA output to
700,000 tonnes/year, as per the company
website.
In March 2024, the company inaugurated its
357,000 tonne/year monoethylene glycol (MEG)
project at its Paradip refinery complex.
PETROCHEMICAL PROJECT
PIPELINE
Indian Oil plans to commission a 150,000 tonne/year butyl
acrylate plant at its Gujarat refinery in
the current financial year 2024-25.
One of the company’s ambitious petrochemical
projects include the mega complex at Paradip in
eastern Odisha state, Vaidya said, noting that
the Rs610
billion project is IOC’s “largest ever
investment at a single location”.
The petrochemical complex will include a
world-scale 1.5 milion tonne/year naphtha
cracker unit along with downstream process
units for producing polypropylene (PP), high
density polyethylene (HDPE), linear low-density
polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride
(PVC).
The Paradip petrochemical project is currently
in implementation stage and the company expects
to commission it by August 2029, IOC said in
its annual report released on 18 July.
As part of its future expansions, IOC expects
to begin operations at the 200,000 tonne/year PP
plant at its Barauni refinery and 500,000 tonne/year PP
line at its Gujarat refinery before
end-March 2026, based on the company’s annual
report.
IOC has also enhanced its lube oil base stocks
(LOBS) capacity at its Haldia complex and is
setting up new plants at its Gujarat and
Panipat refineries, Vaidya said, adding, “we
aim to increase the capacity from 730,000
tonnes/year to 1.5 million tonnes/year”.
The company expects to commission the 60,000 tonnes/year
polybutadiene rubber (PBR) plant at its
Panipat refinery by March 2025 as per the
annual report.
These planned expansions by IOC will help meet
the rising petrochemical demand in the country,
IOC stated in its latest annual report.
The domestic petrochemical industry is “poised
for substantial growth, driven by India’s
sturdy macro fundamentals, population expansion
and presently low per capita polymer
consumption,” it said.
India’s overall petrochemical demand is
projected to nearly triple by 2040, with the
industry’s value expected to reach the $1
trillion mark, said Indian minister for
petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Pur in
a presentation at the Asia Petrochemical
Industry Conference (APIC) in May 2023.
Focus article by Priya Jestin
($1 = Rs83.91)
Thumbnail image: An Indian Oil petrol pump
in Kolkata, 17 January 2022. (By Indranil
Aditya/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Ammonia13-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Industry group Fertilizer
Canada has requested federal authorities take
action as CN Railway and Canadian Pacific
Kansas City have issued embargoes immediately
halting certain fertilizer shipments ahead of
an anticipated labor strike.
Fertilizer Canada is calling on the federal
government and Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon
to assist all parties and the Teamsters Canada
Rail Conference (TCRC), in reaching agreements.
Further, it is asking that there be a directive
for binding arbitration that prohibits TCRC
from undertaking strike action and the
railroads from lockout action.
The railroads have said they could lock out
workers on 22 August if union leadership and
the companies are unable to achieve immediate
progress or reach a negotiated settlement or
agree upon binding arbitration.
Fertilizer Canada said that embargoes issued 12
August impact essential ammonia fertilizer
products.
In addition, service for all products will also
begin to slow three to five days ahead of a
work stoppage and take between three to five
days to reach regular service upon conclusion.
The group said the threat has already begun to
impact fertilizer movement and the industry
anticipates further slowdowns.
It noted that a work stoppage which halts
nutrient transportation will potentially have
disastrous effects on crop yields and food
security.
It further stated that according to recent
polling that 55% of Canadians believe the
government has a role to play in the collective
bargaining process and should step in to
prevent impacts.
“The long-lasting and cascading impacts of
labor disruptions are felt before and after the
stoppage even takes place,” says Karen Proud,
Fertilizer Canada president and CEO.
“We have had the threat of a work stoppage
hanging over our heads since the beginning of
the year. Farmers around the world rely on
Canada’s fertilizer industry to maximize crop
yields, and the fertilizer industry relies on
rail to get our products to market.”
The group is urging the federal government to
amend the labor code to strengthen the
bargaining process and also recognize
fertilizer as an essential good critical to
food security that should continue to move
during work stoppages.
“Canada’s reputation has been damaged by the
numerous supply chain disruptions in recent
history,” Proud said.
“This uncertainty gives our international
competitors like Russia and China an advantage.
We need swift action to protect Canada’s
reputation as a reliable trading partner.”
75% of all fertilizer produced and used in
Canada are moved by rail with limited
alternatives to rail. Not only does this supply
support to Canadian farmers, but US and
international growers also rely on this flow of
fertilizer.
Fertilizer Canada represents producers,
manufacturers, wholesale and retail
distributors of nitrogen, phosphate, potash and
sulphur fertilizers.
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