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Ammonia12-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting increased
corn and soybean production, according to the
August World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimate (WASDE) report.
Corn production is being calculated at 15.1
billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from the
July report, while soybeans are projected to be
4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million bushels.
Looking further at the domestic corn crop, the
USDA said the monthly outlook is for larger
supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports
and smaller ending stocks.
Projected beginning stocks are now 10 million
bushels lower based on a slightly higher use
forecast for 2023-2024, with higher exports
partly offset by reductions in corn used for
glucose, dextrose and starch.
Corn production is forecasted at 15.1 billion
bushels, up 47 million bushels from last month
with the agency saying a 700,000 acre decline
in harvested area is fully offset by an
increase in yield.
The season’s first survey-based corn yield
forecast is at a record 183.1 bushels per acre,
which is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s
projection.
Among the major producing states there are
indications that yields will rise year on year
in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska
and South Dakota, with yields in Ohio
forecasted to be below a year ago.
Total US corn use is forecast 60 million
bushels higher to now stand at 15.0 billion
bushels.
Exports for 2024-2025 are being lifted by 75
million bushels to a total of 2.3 billion
bushels, which the USDA said reflects US export
competitiveness and relatively low world market
prices.
With supply rising less than use, ending stocks
are now calculated to be lower by 24 million
bushels to 2.1 billion bushels.
The August WASDE said the season-average farm
price received by producers is lowered by 10
cents to stand at $4.20 per bushel.
For soybeans, the USDA said the outlook
includes higher production, exports and ending
stocks.
Currently production is being forecasted at 4.6
billion bushels, which is an increase of 154
million bushels and is based on higher area and
yield.
The harvested area is being calculated at 86.3
million acres, which is 1 million acres higher
from the July WASDE.
The first survey-based soybean yield forecast
is at 53.2 bushels per acre, which is up 1.2
bushels from last month’s projection.
Soybean supplies are being estimated at 4.9
billion bushels, which is 11% higher year on
year.
The USDA said exports are up 25 million bushels
on higher supplies and crush unchanged, with
ending stocks now expected to be 560 million
bushels, up 125 million bushels from last
month.
The season-average soybean price is forecast at
$10.80 per bushel, down 30 cents from July.
The next WASDE report will be released on 12
September.
Ethylene12-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 9 August.
Canada labor tribunal rules on rail strike,
orders 13-day cooling-off period
The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) on
Friday ruled that no rail activities need to be
maintained in case of a strike or lockout at
rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC).
Celanese lifts force majeure on acetic acid,
VAM in western Hemisphere
Celanese has lifted the force majeure it
declared on acetic acid and vinyl acetate
monomer (VAM) sold in the western Hemisphere,
the US-based acetyls producer said on Thursday.
INSIGHT: So far, recession is unlikely despite
market turmoil
Chemical companies are expecting a lacklustre
second half of the year, but, so far, they will
unlikely suffer through a recession, despite
the spate of pessimistic economic data and the
worst stock-market selloff in more than a year.
Avient hikes guidance after strong Q2, sees
restocking in packaging and consumer
Avient has raised its 2024 guidance for
adjusted earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)
following stronger-than-expected Q2 results.
US chem shares plunge for third day amid fears
of hard landing
Shares of US-listed chemical companies fell
sharply for the third consecutive trading day
on Monday amid growing concerns that the US
economy could head towards a hard landing and
enter a recession.
US recession fears fan slide in global
stocks
US stocks were trading down around 3%
mid-morning on Monday, with the major chemical
companies posting double-digit falls on growing
fears about a recession after the world’s
largest economy reported weak economic data.
Speciality Chemicals12-Aug-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories
from ICIS Europe for the week ended 9 August.
Europe propylene glycol
ethers market to focus on imports until year
end
A balanced propylene glycol ethers market in
Europe is widely expected to continue for the
remainder of the year with the focus to remain
heavily on changes in supply.
Supply changes to drive
European ethanolamines market into the
autumn
Supply changes are expected to remain the
driving force in the European ethanolamines
market for the remainder of the year.
Europe ACN market to see
seasonal demand shift in H2 2024
Evolving geopolitics-led supply chain
developments and the macroeconomic picture will
dominate changes to supply and demand in the
European acrylonitrile (ACN) market in H2 2024.
Europe methanol run rates
to remain low to counterbalance
demand
European methanol demand is likely to remain
stable in the second half of 2024, with limited
recovery in derivative markets expected.
Europe chems stocks
tumble amid global sell-off on US economic
fears
Chemical stocks in Europe slumped in early
trading on Monday after a market rout in Asia
following bearish US economic data at the end
of last week prompted fears of a slowdown.
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Gas12-Aug-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week
ended 9 August 2024.
INSIGHT: The future of gasoline demand under
India’s new fuel efficiency norms
By Man Yiu Tse 08-Aug-24 12:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–India’s newly proposed Corporate
Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) norms for
passenger cars until 2037 will drive a
significant shift towards compressed natural
gas (CNG), hybrid, and electric passenger cars,
reducing the dominance of gasoline models and
influencing the long-term trajectory of
gasoline demand.
OUTLOOK: Asia Group I base oils supply
constraints to persist in H2 amid demand
uptick
By Michelle Liew 08-Aug-24 11:03 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s Group I base oils supply,
especially for heavy neutrals, is expected to
remain tight in H2 2024 despite subdued demand,
which may pick up towards September.
PODCAST: China’s Third Plenum signals optimism
for Asia’s propylene markets
By Damini Dabholkar 08-Aug-24 00:32 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The third plenary session of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee
recently concluded in July, with the CCP
underlining the country’s long-term economic
strategy. This session, a significant event in
China’s economic planning, serves as a guide
for both immediate and long-term policies.
OUTLOOK: Asia mixed xylenes market could
continue to face headwinds
By Jasmine Khoo 07-Aug-24 10:44 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Mixed xylenes (MX) in Asia for both the
isomer and solvent grades are expected to
continue facing headwinds from various market
factors.
Asia shares rebound after sharp losses, oil
prices rise more than $1/barrel
By Nurluqman Suratman 06-Aug-24 18:32 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asian shares rebounded on Tuesday,
staging a relief rally after historic losses
the previous day, as fresh US economic data for
July alleviated recession fears.
Ammonia09-Aug-2024
TORONTO (ICIS)–The Canada Industrial Relations
Board (CIRB) on Friday ruled that no rail
activities need to be maintained in case of a
strike or lockout at rail carriers Canadian
National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City
(CPKC).
However, the quasi-judicial tribunal ordered a
13-day cooling-off period before a legal rail
strike or lockout can begin.
The CIRB’s long-awaited ruling does not remove
the rail strike threat that has been looming
over Canada’s energy, chemicals and other
industries for months.
A strike by the more than 9,000 CN and CPKC
unionized conductors, train operators and
engineers could now start towards the end of
the month if collective bargaining fails.
The railroads and labor union Teamsters Canada
Rail Conference (TCRC) resumed negotiations on
Wednesday, 7 August.
Federal labor minister Steve MacKinnon on
Friday urged the parties to continue
negotiating. MacKinnon became labor minister
last month after his predecessor resigned
suddenly.
The former labor minister, Seamus O’Regan, in
May referred the industrial dispute to the CIRB
for a decision about a strike’s impacts on
public safety and health after the rail workers
voted for a strike as early as 22 May.
The referral suspended
the workers’ right to strike because under law
a legal strike or lockout could not occur until
the board made its decision.
The ongoing uncertainties around rail
disruptions have affected Canadian chemical,
fertilizer and other manufacturers, as they
need to make preparations.
In recent earnings calls, midstream energy
firms Pembina and Keyera, as well as
fertilizer major Nutrien and others
raised the looming rail strike as a concern,
and CN reduced its 2024 earnings guidance,
citing the impacts of the labor uncertainty.
Canadian chemical producers rely on rail to
ship more than 70% of their products, with some
exclusively using rail, while in the fertilizer
industry about 75% of all fertilizers produced
and used in Canada is moved by rail.
Thumbnail photo source: CN
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate09-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Recycled Plastics analyst
Corbin Olson and US Recycled Plastics senior
editor Emily Friedman discuss the main
takeaways from the latest round of corporate
quarterly earnings calls, as they relate to the
US recycled plastics industry.
Key takeaways included:
Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies
largely showed positive North American sales
volumes, though some continue to see negative
volumes due to the current inflationary
environment.
Durables markets, such as pipe and
composite decking which use recycled plastic
as a raw material, showed moderate progress,
with weakness in agricultural and residential
end markets. Broader economic softness in
construction, automotive and housing
continues to exert downwards pressure.
Waste management companies largely saw
strong earnings, with several investing in
recycling collection and sortation
infrastructure, but also in downstream in
plastics recycling capacity. Republic
Services notes progress on their Polymer
Centers.
Virgin petrochemical players continue to
integrate with recycling operations
Dow acquires Circulus
LyondellBasell pending FID on Houston
chemical recycling unit
ExxonMobil pledges increased chemical
recycling capacity in 2025
Eastman shows progress on operation
of Kingsport methanolysis facility,
lowers earnings guidance
PET sales volumes increase, amid weaker
market pricing; R-PET forecasts remain strong
for future demand
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Power09-Aug-2024
Baltic countries notify Russia and Belarus
of intention to unplug from BRELL area
ENTSO-E synchronization scheduled for early
2025 to link Baltic countries to continental
Europe
Poland, Baltic countries working on backup
line
BUCHAREST (ICIS)–The three Baltic countries
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, are preparing to
synchronize with the European Network of
Transmission System Operators for Electricity
(ENTSO-E) system early next year as they are
taking the final steps to decouple from the
Russian and Belarusian grids.
Their electricity transmission system operators
Elering, AST and Litgrid, have already notified
Moscow and Minsk of their intention to unplug
from the BRELL area (Belarus, Russia, Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania). The deadline to send the
notification was August 7.
The BRELL agreement under which they had been
connected with Belarus, the Russian exclave of
Kaliningrad and Russia itself since Soviet days
is due to expire on February 7 2025 and the
three Baltic operators are planning to
disconnect from it altogether the following
day.
The interconnection with the Continental Europe
Synchronous Area has been scheduled for
February 9.
The interconnection with the continental grid
operating under the umbrella of the ENTSO-E is
considered of strategic importance for the
three countries and will be carried out through
the 400kV LitPol link, connecting Lithuania and
Poland.
The line is currently operational and has a
bidirectional transfer capacity of 500MW.
However, once the synchronization is completed,
fully aligning the three Baltic countries with
the European grid, the capacity is expected to
increase.
The capacity that could be made available for
commercial exchanges is yet to be decided.
SYNCHRONIZATION TESTS
Lithuania is connected with Latvia, which is in
turn connected with Estonia. The three Baltic
countries are expected to carry out preliminary
tests before completing the synchronization.
Lithuania and Estonia are connected via
back-to-back lines with Sweden and Finland
respectively. The aggregated capacity of the
two lines to Finland and one line to Sweden is
1.7GW. Synchronization is to take place via the
LitPol line, with other countries synchronizing
through the Lithuanian system to which they are
connected.
Susanne Nies, energy expert at Helmholtz
Zentrum Berlin, a Germany-based think tank,
told ICIS that the test would involve
decoupling from the grids of Belarus,
Kaliningrad and Russia itself and operating in
full isolation for a period of time.
The island mode test is required to ensure the
countries can operate at a stable frequency of
50Hz in conditions of peak winter demand. The
three Baltic countries’ aggregated peakload
capacity is around 4.5GW and their baseload
capacity is around 1.68GW.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were fully
prepared for the island mode test, according to
Nies, having deployed all the necessary
infrastructure and IT systems needed to
strengthen and stabilize the grids ahead of the
synchronization.
She added that Kaliningrad, which becomes an
island after synchronization, has passed two
tests successfully and can be fully
self-sufficient, providing electricity supplies
to its one million people from two combined
cycle gas turbine power plants.
Nies, who has been following the Baltic project
since it was launched in 2015, said the purpose
of the synchronization with ENTSO-E was
primarily to guarantee security of supply
rather than commercial exchanges.
For now, the existing line will be exempt from
the EU’s 70% rule, she added, which enters in
force in 2025 and requires electricity grid
operators to make available 70% of the
transmission capacity for cross-border trading.
BACKUP
There is also a need to build an additional
line to ensure that in case of risks to the
existing connecting infrastructure or
generating capacity in the Baltic area, the
additional line would provide backup, Nies
added.
The Baltic operators and their Polish
counterpart, PSE, are now considering whether
the backup line should be built along railroad
or motorway connections, both of which are
being developed between Poland and Lithuania.
Nies said plans to build the Harmony Link, a
subsea cable connecting Lithuania to Poland,
were no longer being considered amid security
fears following suspected attacks on subsea
energy infrastructure in the Baltic Sea in
recent years. High-voltage line solutions have
also become more expensive.
Baltic synchronization has been supported by
the EU, with funding from the Connecting Europe
Facility amounting to €1.2 billion and covering
around 75% of the project’s eligible costs.
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate09-Aug-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers
Conference 7 November in Berlin, Germany
Colourless (C) R-PET UK flake price range
narrows
Turkish bales, flake prices rising in
August
Market participants looking ahead to
September and end of holiday period
Acetic Acid08-Aug-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Celanese has lifted the force
majeure it declared on acetic acid and vinyl
acetate monomer (VAM) sold in the western
Hemisphere, the US-based acetyls producer said
on Thursday.
Celanese had declared force majeure
earlier in the year after two feedstock
suppliers suffered from disruptions.
During an earnings call, Celanese said the
effect of the force majeure was limited because
of soft overall demand amid a difficult
macro-economic environment.
Thumbnail shows adhesive, which is
typically made with VAM. (Image by
Shutterstock)
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