HOUSTON (ICIS)–As the remnants of what was Hurricane Francine continues to inundate and bring severe weather threats to parts of the southern US, the fertilizer industry in Louisiana was back in action on Friday having emerged mostly unscathed by the storm. Having escaped any confirmed property damage, with the largest obstacle the loss of power, plant facilities were said to be back online, with fertilizer producers including Nutrien having confirmed the lack of impact from Francine which made landfall on 11 September. Most of the problems faced in the last few days have been delayed and halted logistics given the fierce winds and heavy rains along with the brief stoppage of railroad and port operations. A common refrain was echoed by a producer source who said, “we had some logistical issues but no physical damage”. In Donaldsonville fertilizer producer CF Industries was heard to be back in production and loading supply as the storm brought some disruption to their transportation schedule. The company has not commented during this event but as a trader said, “CF now back running. Barges likely to get sorted over the weekend and river likely to be back open”. With the port in New Orleans (Nola) back in operation there was also further urea barges business done with expectations of a significant period of post-harvest application over the upcoming weeks not washed away by the recent weather. Harvesting campaigns have taken a hit and will be delayed for several days, possibly even longer depending on rainfall amounts. The concern is with a delay in these activities it creates an additional lag for starting post-harvest field activities like end of the year fertilizing. The real impact of this storm and its subsequent sway on domestic fertilizer direction likely comes once the extent of crop damage is understood, with the storm having arrived as there was considerable acreage nearing maturity or being harvested across several states. Lost of yields causing a reduction in income could mean a decrease in buying for immediate supply or reduced interest in pre-pay commitments.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lifted the expectations for corn production slightly while soybean production is being projected to be down marginally according to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For corn the monthly update is showing an outlook of increased production but for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Corn production is being forecasted at 15.2 billion bushels, which is an increase of 39 million bushels from last month and is based on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield, which is calculated at 183.6 bushels/acre. The September WASDE said the harvested area is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are reduced by 55 million bushels based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol during the period of 2023-2024. Total corn use is unchanged at 15 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, the USDA said ending stocks are reduced by 16 million bushels to stand at 2.1 billion bushels. The September WASDE said the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered by 10 cents to $4.10/bushel. For soybeans, the USDA said supply and use changes include lower production and beginning stocks as well as ending stocks. Without attributing a cause for the dip, the monthly update shows that soybean production is projected down by 3 million bushels for a total estimate of 4.6 billion bushels. The agency said lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023-2024. With the 2024-2025 soybean crush and exports unchanged, the September WASDE is projecting ending stocks at 550 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average soybean price is forecast as unchanged at $10.80/bushel. The next WASDE report will be released on 11 October.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Average global rates for shipping containers fell significantly this week, including a 21% decrease from Shanghai to New York, as shippers are shifting cargo deliveries to the US West Coast to avoid the planned strike on 1 October. A strike by union dock workers at East Coast and US Gulf ports seems more likely after International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) Wage Scale Delegates voted unanimously last week to support leadership’s intentions to walk off the job if a new labor deal is not agreed to when the contract expires on 30 September. Supply chain advisors Drewry said the shift has led to a decrease in demand that has pressured prices lower. Average global rates for 40-foot containers fell b y13% as shown in the following chart. As much of the peak-season demand has been pulled forward either to avoid tariffs or the labor issues, Drewry expects east-west rates to fall further in the upcoming weeks. The following chart from Drewry shows the decrease from Shanghai to both US coasts, as well as from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa which have also fallen significantly. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said rates from Asia to the US West could face upward pressure the deadline to make the decision to shift coasts has about passed. “Transatlantic shippers still have a little time left to move containers, and the approaching cutoff may be supporting the $300/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) increase in daily rates so far this week,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STEADY Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf were unchanged this week. On the transatlantic eastbound trade lane contract cargoes are keeping things steady with owners looking to fill holes of open space. October contract volumes on the transpacific route remain tentative but a shipping broker expects part cargo space to be available across the regular players. The USG-South America east coast trade lane was quiet this week, but the regular owners have space for prompt loading. Thumbnail photo: A container ship carrying cargo on its way to Antwerp Harbour. (By OLIVIER HOSLET/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Argentinian’s government attempt to turn the economy around has had certain successes in the fiscal front, but high inflation is still challenging the outlook as it continues to eat up on gains elsewhere, according to an economist at Buenos Aires-based Fundacion Capital. Carlos Perez, director at the consultancy, said metaphorically that the Argentinian economy has been released from the intensive care unit but only to be moved on to the general ward of an imaginary hospital, “The economy remains a patient.” Perez, who was an executive at Argentina’s central bank between 2004 and 2013, said he was impressed with the fiscal consolidation in President Javier Milei’s first nine months in office, but added the challenges ahead remain daunting and a change in society’s mindset – a “regime change”, he said – is needed to make the system functional. While at this stage most economists think Milei could go 50/50 to success or failure, Perez said his opinion now would be tilted towards a 60% chance of success, because of the quick progress done so far. ON THE TIGHTROPEHowever, a 40% chance of failure is still painfully high for a society which has been battered by half a century of economic up and downs – in the past two decades, more downs than ups. Many of Milei’s policies are inspired in center-right former President Mauricio Macri (2015-2019), who tried to liberalize one of the closest economies in the world; the experiment worked for a bit, but the return of the center-left Peronists changed course again. All in all, since former President Nestor Kirchner’s first term (2003-2007), who was then to be succeeded by his wife Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the economy in Argentina has lived on steroids, with widespread subsidies which Milei has started to withdraw. Printing money to fund that spending became the norm. The result is Argentina’s stratospherically high inflation, still running at annual rate of 237% and with monthly inflation still running at over 4% – bringing monthly price rises below that threshold was one of Milei’s key targets. “The economy has gone into intermediate care, but it is still early to see the light at the end of the tunnel. But considering the fiscal adjustment in these nine months, with respect to the fiscal results that Argentina had in the last 50 years, one has to say that in fiscal terms the government has done a very good job,” said Perez. “When I say very good, what I mean is that not only you have achieved to cover public spending, but also to cover the payment of the interest on the public debt that you were having because of the recurring fiscal deficits, ie they have achieved a primary surplus.” However, the cabinet has been able to achieve a primary surplus with drastic cuts to public spending – the start of subsidies’ withdrawal or putting on hold all public works, for instance – which are denting consumption at the same time. However, Perez says cutting public spending is in a way the healthiest option to achieve a surplus, the other two being by issuing debt or increasing spending, “Both are a little bit bread for today and hunger for tomorrow,” said Perez. “What happens is that you had hyperinflation on the horizon, and the fiscal imbalance was the implicating variable par excellence. The cabinet chose the healthiest way [to achieve a surplus].” While there have not been yet widespread redundancies among civil servants, Perez expects that process to happen gradually in the coming quarters, with public authorities setting up schemes for leavers in which, for example, they give them a period of 12 months to find another employment in the private sector. “The cabinet wants the private sector to be the motor of the economy. That will imply a change in society’s mindset, which has lived in a subsidized system for more than 20 years, accustomed to Nanny State, with a small break during Macri’s term which never amounted to a proper regime change,” said Perez. “Society is asking for radical change, and the certainty of regime change is not yet installed in the economic agents’ minds. It is very different for the business community to take decisions on investments with an installed, stable regime than to take those decisions under rules which may last as little as one cabinet’s term.” LIQUIDITY IMPROVEMENTS STALLArgentina’s fiscal deficits continuously knocked on the door of the non-independent central bank, who kept printing money and ran out of pretty much all its reserves. During Milei’s first five months in office, up to May, the central bank also overturned that situation and bought approximately $3 billion/month, accumulated reserves. “However, from June to now it bought less than $200 million in the past 100 days – practically nothing. What’s happening? The real exchange rate today is very similar to what it was before the devaluation of December 2023, ie what was devaluated has been eaten up by inflation,” said Perez. “The exchange rate between the peso and the dollar is devaluating at around 2% per month, but monthly inflation remains at 4% per month, approximately. And you keep accumulating distortion.” Many other distortions in Argentina’s economy remain, said Perez, such as currency controls which limit the buying or selling of foreign currency. The government wanted to withdraw those quickly, but it found the treasury’s coffers were very much intertwined with the economy system inherited. Another bailout agreement with the IMF may also be necessary, he added, to give breathing space to the administration to implement its plans, which the IMF has endorsed. Like most other bodies, including the IMF, Fundacion Capital is projecting a fall in Argentina’s GDP of 4-5% this year, with a strong rebound in 2025, which will be led by the commodities exports boom coming from both agro and oil and gas. Petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors, however, may still take a while to feel the recovery in earnest, according to sources, as consumers shy away from big-ticket purchases such durable goods – their pockets are expected to remain squeezed still for a few quarters. “If you had asked me in December about the chances of success, I would have also said 60% chance of failure, and 40% of success. As of now, I think those values have reversed and we are looking better. It’s still little optimism, but at least we can see an open ending,” said Perez. “It will depend on how the government succeeds in implementing the cultural change it wants, showing this is not just like the Macri parenthesis but an actual regime change. It has several weaknesses, not least its minority in both Congress and Senate,” said Perez. “The cultural change must be adopted by society as well, whom I believe this time can clearly see there is not money in the state coffers. Let’s see – but the truth is that society was fed up with the politics of the past years and where they led us.” Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

SITGES, Spain (ICIS)–Chemical companies will find it easier to charge a green premium as the cost of carbon increases, fossil feedstock availability declines and customers realize the true value of the products they are buying. The cost of living crisis and poor profitability down industrial value chains mean that companies are resistant to paying more for low carbon and more sustainable products. But that will change as regulators push up the cost of carbon content in materials while the switch away from fossil fuels will make green alternatives more attractive, according to panel speakers at  the Fecc (European Association of Chemical Distributors) annual congress in Sitges, Spain. They argue that people will be willing to pay a green premium once there is regulatory support for carbon pricing, which will incentivize customers to take account of the savings low carbon products offer. Richard Jenkins, senior vice president for coatings solutions at France’s Arkema said: “The number of carbon credits will reduce, the number of companies seeking them will increase, and this will drive up the value of CO2 avoidance. So when I’m sitting in front of customers, I’m telling them they have to consider the whole cost of carbon – it might cost more per unit but overall you are saving on the costs of CO2.” The EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) works under the principle of “cap and trade” where  companies are granted allowances for the maximum amount of CO2 they may emit from their facilities. They may buy and sell their allowances but the overall volume is steadily reduced each year in line with the EU’s climate targets. As they become more scarce, the price tends to increase. Georg Winkler, senior partner for consultants McKinsey & Company added: “If you decarbonize polyethylene (PE) packaging and then break down the actual costs, they are tiny – this should only change the price of the product by a cent or so. Also, if we have a single-use-plastics tax in Europe then we can point out the cost saving to our customers.” Ib Jensen, president and CEO of Swedish specialty chemicals group Perstorp said: “I don’t like the term green premium; I prefer the term fossil discount. Consumers are increasingly ready to pay a premium, especially in B2C (business-to-consumer), but also in B2B (business-to-business) they are appreciating [the need for a] green premium.” As the transition to low-carbon transportation accelerates, demand for diesel and petroleum will decrease, leading to the closure of more oil refineries. In turn this will reduce availability of petrochemical feedstocks for chemical production, potentially pushing up the cost of these materials. Arkema’s Jenkins said: “I don’t believe that today’s fossil-based chemistry will remain at the same scale and cost that it is today. We drive a lot less than we used to and some of my suppliers are telling me that some raw materials will be less available in the future. I think the old solutions may start to cost more, and as we get to scale the cost of new solutions will come down.” He added: “There is a lot of focus on energy efficiency so solutions which contribute to an overall cut in the cost of use are important. Now you’re talking about value rather than per unit cost – what it is doing and enabling and solving versus what it is, which is product push.” The Fecc annual congress takes place in Sitges, Spain from 11-13 September 2024. Focus article by Will Beacham Thumbnail photo source: Jeppe Gustafsson/Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The soundtrack of my youth was the Canadian rock band, Rush. In the fabulous Tom Sawyer, the lyrics include: “His mind is not for rent, always hopeful yet discontent, he knows changes aren’t permanent, but change is”. Don’t let your mind be rented by anybody who tells you that the global chemicals industry isn’t going through the most profound set of changes in its modern-day history. Nobody knows all the details of the changes that will be permanent. Anybody who claims they do know will lead you down a path away from essential scenario planning. We do know that in this world of flux and chaos at a micro level, the following macro trends are here to stay: Sustainability, ageing populations across most of the G20, much more volatile geopolitics, ever greater economic, social and political disruptions caused by climate change and the end of debt bubbles. How will, for example, geopolitics and rising trade tensions reshape global polycarbonate (PC) trade flows, demand and trade flows? In today’s post,  I look at scenarios for China’s net imports or net exports of polycarbonate in 2024-2030 based on levels of trade tensions and its ability to export to third-party countries such as Mexico. These countries have become a means by which China is getting around the trade tensions by relocating export-focused manufacturing plants. The ICIS base case forecasts that China’s PC demand growth will fall to an annual average of 3% in 2024-2030 from 17% in 1992-2023. Assuming this 3% demand growth, capacity growth at 4% and an operating rate of just 47% in 2024-2030 (the 1992-2023 operating rate averaged 68%), ICIS forecasts that China’s PC net imports will be around 460,000 tonnes a year. Let’s imagine in a world of increased trade tensions, China decides it cannot afford to rely on large volumes of imports. Because of the trade tensions, it also cannot export significant quantities of PC to countries such as Mexico to make autos, etc. Under this outcome, let’s keep demand and capacity growth the same in the base case but raise operating rates to 55%. Average annual net imports fall to just 80,000 tonnes. What if, though, trade tensions are not that bad? If we again keep demand and capacity growth the same as the base case but raise the operating rate to 63%, China becomes a net exporter at an annual average of 460,000 tonnes between 2024 and 2030. I plan to attempt to build new demand and supply models today’s demographic, geopolitical, debt, sustainability and climate change realities. This is going to be immensely difficult. Failure will be a big part of any success. But given today’s events, do we have any other choice? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Francine charged through southern Louisiana and although it gave plenty of soaking rains to the communities and businesses it passed through, most of the fertilizer industry within Louisiana appears to have weathered the storm fairly well. With 100 mile/h winds, Francine was a Category 2 storm at landfall but as of late Thursday, was categorized as a post-tropical storm and was located south of Memphis, Tennessee, with winds down to 25 miles/h and moving north at 9 miles/h. Having a short window as Francine quickly developed and advanced in strength and speed, the domestic fertilizer participants and companies rapidly put their response plans into action over the first part of the week and prepared for the storm. The industry in the Gulf Coast region does have the experience of having to face these threats often, so they are familiar with the challenges and dangers presented but also have constructed facilities and other assets to withstand a tropical storm or hurricane. In New Orleans, there were winds measured at a top speed of 70 miles/h and there was tremendous amount of rainfall with an estimated total from Francine placed at 8.43 inches, with parts of Mississippi having received over 6 inches. Still even with the gusty winds, the city and the fertilizer infrastructure were not significantly struck considering past events faced by this community, with a market source saying that barge operations are seeing all cargoes accounted for. Over in Geismar, despite some reports that there were issues, Canadian fertilizer major Nutrien said it did not have any complications. “Fortunately, we had no impact at the Geismar nitrogen site. Our people are safe and the plants remain operational,” said a Nutrien spokesperson. Yet not all apparently fared as well because there was talk that producer Mosaic is understood to have its Faustina operations offline, but it has not confirmed any plant status. While in Donaldsonville, the power supply is understood to have been restored leading to expectations that there will be a resumption of production occurring soon. Producer CF, who has a large nitrogen complex in this location, has not responded to requests for comment about its storm preparation and has previously stated it will not comment on plant operations. The next big concern will be over how extensive the crops were damaged, which could take some time to determine. Yet with the fierce winds and strong downpours already experienced it is likely that vulnerable crops like cotton and corn would have been impacted. Although with the lesser severity of the storm, it is possible the impacts on other vital acreage like sugarcane and rice have not been as affected. There have already been concerns over farmers facing reduced income levels this year which has been heightened by crop price pressures and has weighed on fertilizer commitments. Combined, these factors make any prospects of lost yields and washed-away profits a real concern for both growers and fertilizer participants.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Chemical companies continue to assess the impact from Hurricane Francine on Thursday after the storm made landfall on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane on the Louisiana coast. Ascension parish, home to Geismar and its many chemical plants, was among the regions hardest hit by Hurricane Francine, which has caused hundreds of thousands of power outages. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have downgraded Francine to a post-tropical cyclone that is continuing to produce heavy rainfall across parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle, as shown in the following image. Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) CHEMICAL OPERATIONS Several chemical companies shut down their plants ahead of Francine’s landfall on Wednesday evening and are assessing damage on Thursday, while some are in the process of restarting. Shell’s refinery and chemical sites in Louisiana do not appear to have serious damage from Hurricane Francine, the producer said “at this early stage” on Thursday. Shell is conducting a thorough post-hurricane damage assessment at Geismar and Norco to ensure the integrity of its equipment, systems and processes. Downstream issues have caused Shell to curtail oil and gas production at Appomattox, Mars, Vito, Ursa and Olympus following Hurricane Francine, it said Thursday morning. Shell did not specify the downstream issues. Dow said its sites in Louisiana are safely resuming normal operations. It is unclear what steps it took in preparation for the storm and whether those steps had any effect on operations or production. BASF is assessing the impacts from Hurricane Francine at facilities located in the path of the storm, the company told ICIS in an update on Thursday. Louisiana is home to just above 25% of the total ethylene capacity in the US, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. It also has close to 50% of the country’s vinyls chain capacity – for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), chlorine, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and caustic soda. Other significant exposures close to 50% of total US capacity include methanol, ethylbenzene (EB), styrene and low density polyethylene (LDPE). UTILITIES More than 262,000 customers in Louisiana were without power as of Thursday afternoon, according to the website poweroutage.us. The total was higher than 350,000 earlier in the day. There were more than 38,000 without power in Alabama, 13,000 in Mississippi and 11,000 in Tennessee. Ascension and Assumption parishes as well as the coastal parts of Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes appear to be among the hardest hit, said Entergy, a power company. OIL AND GAS The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended all marine operations on 11 September, according to its website. An estimated 41.74% of current US oil production and 53.32% of US natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in as of Thursday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). PORTS The US Coast Guard has not yet activated Port Condition Recovery at the Port of New Orleans, but pilots are understood to be ready and able to start moving traffic once cleared. Lake Charles is also currently closed awaiting the Coast Guard to survey the channel, which may happen early on Friday. Operations at Pascagoula, Florida, and Mobile, Alabama, have also been suspended due to adverse weather, according to GAC Hot Port News. RAILROADS Railroads are telling customers to expect delays as they assess damage from the storm. BNSF issued an embargo impacting traffic between Beaumont, Texas, and New Orleans, Louisiana, including Amelia, Texas. The embargo affects interchanges at Amelia, Beaumont and New Orleans. While the embargo is in effect, permits may not be issued until the storm’s impact has been assessed. CSX is closely monitoring the remnants of Hurricane Francine as it moves north-northwest, potentially affecting the CSX network. While no service areas are currently impacted, customers with shipments through the CSX Southeast and Southwest regions could experience potential delays. Leading up to the storm, CSX implemented measures to protect its employees, customers and communities. “Our team is working diligently to ensure minimal service disruptions while maintaining the highest safety standards,” CSX said. Norfolk Southern is operating as scheduled and a market participant told ICIS the railroad said it will work with connecting carriers to utilize alternative gateways where possible. The New Orleans Public Belt Railroad said on Thursday that it resumed operations at 14:00 local time (19:00 GMT) following damage assessments. With the Port of New Orleans shut down, railroad companies warned customers of delays as traffic will be diverted following the port’s flood-gate closure. Additional reporting by Tracy Dang, Al Greenwood, Stefan Baumgarten, Emily Burleson, Bryan Campbell and Melissa Wheeler Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Energy producers have shut in almost 42% of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricane Francine, a regulator said on Thursday. The following table summarizes the platforms and rigs that were evacuated, and oil and gas output shut in. Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 169 45.55 Rigs evacuated 3 60 Total Shut-in Percentage of GOM Production Oil, barrels/day 730,472 41.74 Gas, million cubic feet/day 991.68 53.32 Source: Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) The US Gulf accounts for 14% of US crude oil production and 5% of total dry gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended all marine operations on 11 September, according to its website. Francine made landfall on Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane on the US coast of Louisiana. Track the latest updates on Hurricane Francine and its impact on chemicals on the Topic Page: Storm Season 2024.