HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 17 January. INSIGHT: Trump bump to boost US GDP growth I am reminded every four years when there is a new US administration of the 1966 Western action movie, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” starring Clint Eastwood, Eli Wallach and Lee Van Cleef as the good, the bad and the ugly. It is in this vein that we will review new policies from the incoming administration and their likely impact on the economy and the chemical industry. Crude buoyed by cold weather, sanctions, China recovery – oil CEO The rally in crude markets could get continued support from cold weather, sanctions and a recovery in demand from China, the CEO of US crude producer Hess said on Tuesday. Latest US sanctions could hit Russia oil supply – IEA The latest tranche of US sanctions on Russia’s oil trade could affect flows from the country, while weather-related production shut-ins in North America could also impact global supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. 2025 chemicals demand outlook highly uncertain on geopolitics – LANXESS CEO After two years of a severe downturn, the global demand outlook for chemicals in 2025 is extremely uncertain pending geopolitical and policy developments with a new US administration, upcoming elections in Germany and US-China relations, said the CEO of Germany-based specialty chemicals producer LANXESS. US steadies 2025 growth outlook as Europe struggles – IMF Global economic growth this year is expected to increase modestly compared to 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, as stronger expectations of US growth offset an increasing bearish outlook for Europe. INSIGHT: US is adding no new ethylene capacity for first time since 2010 The oversupply of chemicals has caught up with one of the world’s lowest cost producers. In 2025, the US will add no new ethylene capacity, the first time since 2010. INSIGHT: US tariffs on Canadian oil would harm the US and Canada US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to quickly move forward with his proposed 25% tariff on all imports, including oil and energy, from Canada and Mexico after taking office on Monday 20 January.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which highlights Cefic’s report on the existential crisis facing Europe’s chemical industry. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 17 January. US steadies 2025 growth outlook as Europe struggles – IMF Global economic growth this year is expected to increase modestly compared to 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, as stronger expectations of US growth offset an increasing bearish outlook for Europe. Europe jet fuel prices lift off with Brent surge, but demand fails to take flight Jet fuel spot prices in Europe climbed in the week to 14 January, mirroring a rally in upstream Brent crude and gasoil values. However, activity in the physical market remained sluggish, weighed down by low buying interest and abundant supply. Latest US sanctions could hit Russia oil supply – IEA The latest tranche of US sanctions on Russia’s oil trade could affect flows from the country, while weather-related production shut-ins in North America could also impact global supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. Europe naphtha climbs on Brent gains amid sluggish buying, weaker margins Open-spec naphtha (OSN) spot quotations in Europe have been on an upward trajectory, rallying on the back of firming Brent crude values. This was despite subdued blending requirements and poor feedstock demand which kept market liquidity low. PP and PE Africa markets rebalance, some price rises emerge amid lacklustre demand Spot prices in the African polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) markets were mostly stable in the first full week of January, although upward momentum was felt in high density polyethylene (HDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) due to tightening supply.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 17 January. UPDATE: Oil jumps by more than $1/bbl on fresh US sanctions on Russia By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Jan-25 11:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices surged by more than $1/barrel on Monday on supply disruption concerns following latest round of US sanctions against Russia’s energy sector. Strong upstream market, seasonal demand support Asia isomer MX By Jasmine Khoo 14-Jan-25 12:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Strong overall performance in crude oil futures is poised to lend support to Asia’s isomer grade mixed xylenes (MX) market in the near term, although uncertainty looms over the region ahead of the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US. China posts record trade surplus in 2024; trade tensions threaten exports By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Jan-25 17:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has been rushing to ship out goods ahead of new US tariffs under the Trump administration which should keep exports growth strong in the short term, but external demand is projected to slow in line with a weaker global economy in 2025. ICIS China Dec petrochemical index inches up; Jan demand hazy By Yvonne Shi 15-Jan-25 15:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index in December increased by an average of 1.2% from the previous month, largely on account of tight supply in some markets, with players not expecting a strong demand recovery in the near term. China PP cargoes pre-sold at lower prices may impact post-holiday demand By Lucy Shuai and Zhibo Xiao 15-Jan-25 12:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Downstream factory activity in China has been gradually winding down ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays from 28 January-4 February, resulting in weaker spot demand for polypropylene (PP). India petrochemical prices rise as rupee tumbles to all-time low By Jonathan Yee 16-Jan-25 15:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s currency – the rupee – slumped to a record low in the week, pushing up both domestic and import prices of some petrochemicals in the south Asian country amid stable demand. Indonesian rupiah tumbles to 6-month low after surprise key rate cut By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Jan-25 15:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Indonesian rupiah fell to its weakest level in more than six months on Thursday following an unexpected loosening of monetary policy on 15 January to spur growth in southeast Asia’s largest economy. PODCAST: Asia BD bullish on supply constraints, but demand outlook hazy By Damini Dabholkar 17-Jan-25 13:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian spot market for butadiene (BD) saw a bullish start to 2025, as prices in both Chinese yuan and US dollar terms surged dramatically. In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Ai Teng Lim and industry analyst Elaine Zhang come together to discuss the factors moving prices and to take a peek into what may lie ahead for downstream demand.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US edged lower this week as carriers have reduced short-term rates to both coasts to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year (LNY). Analysts at freight forwarder Flexport said that pre-LNY demand has slowed, resulting in low carrier vessel utilization rates and a softening market. Rates from Shanghai to New York fell by 4% from the previous week and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming weeks due to increased capacity. Global average rates fell by 3%, as shown in the following chart. Flexport analysts said that space remains constrained following the pre-LNY rush, especially on fixed allocations, but some strings still have open space, especially to the West Coast and, to a lesser extent, the East Coast. Carriers have planned 11% blank sailings during the LNY period, aligning with network adjustments. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. USG-ASIA CHEM TANKER RATES TICK LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady to lower for most trade lanes this week, with slight decreases on the US Gulf (USG) to Asia trade lane. There are bigger gaps of vessel space showing in January. Therefore, there are a backlog of outsiders looking for opportunities, which weighed on spot rates this week, pushing them lower. From the USG to Rotterdam, there has been a lull in activity on this route as contract space for January is soft, leaving players looking for additional cargoes to complete space for a few tanks. Styrene monomer, glycol and methanol has been said to be a popular commodity within this trade lane. As a result, smaller parcel freights have taken a steep drop from January loadings, while larger parcel sizes seem destined for the same and rates decreasing, according to a broker, various glycol and methanol cargos have keen interest along this route. From the USG to Brazil, there are a few outsiders open for the end of January to early February, along with some regulars with some small pocket space. This trade lane is expected to face some downward pressure as the list of fully open vessels presently continues to grow, according to a broker. Meanwhile from the USG to the Mediterranean, there is still a bit of open space, and the market quotes continue to come in for February. This route after a bit of uncertainty is seeing rates steadying for the balance of open space. On the other hand, bunker prices were higher this week following the rise in energy prices. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office has announced a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee of up to $1.26 billion to fertilizer producer Michigan Potash & Salt Company (MPSC) to help finance the construction of a potash solution mine and processing plant. The development in Osceola County, Michigan is anticipated to produce approximately 800,000 short tons/year of muriate of potash (MOP) and about 1 million short tons/year of salt. At its peak the company projects there will be 1,400 full-time equivalent union construction jobs and 200 ongoing operations jobs. The government agency noted that potash is one of the key natural fertilizers needed for agricultural production with US currently importing over 90% of its annual demand, with most of that supply coming from Canada. Further it said that given the project’s location it does provides advantageous proximity to the Corn Belt and is viewed as contributing to both food security and supply chain resilience. The project is being designed to electrify thermal processes and utilize emission-free sources for the majority of its electricity demand. If finalized the Michigan Potash plant would be one of the only new potash facilities built domestically within the last 60 years and be the most energy-efficient plant with limited surface disturbance. This would be due to its innovative pairing of intrinsic geothermal heat from solution mining and mechanical vapor recompression. The brine extracted from an underground deposit will be processed into high-grade MOP and multiple grades of salt via crystallization. The potash will be sold to US agribusiness Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) while salt will be sold to a range of markets including food-grade, bulk, water conditioning and road de-icing. The agency said Loan Programs Office borrowers are required to implement a comprehensive community benefits plan which ensure meaningfully engagement with community and labor stakeholders to create good-paying jobs and improve the well-being of the community. It said that Michigan Potash has committed to a project labor agreement with 11 trade unions and will have a majority union construction workforce. It has also opened a community center near the site for residents to voice concerns, ask questions, or hold meetings about the project. Further the company has partnered with educational institutions to better engage the community and foster a diverse and talented hiring pool. The agency and the company must satisfy certain technical, legal, environmental and financial conditions before the department enters definitive documents and funding the loan.

TORONTO (ICIS)–US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to quickly move forward with his proposed 25% tariff on all imports, including oil and energy, from Canada and Mexico after taking office on Monday 20 January. Tariffs to hurt US industry and consumers US refiners rely on Canadian crude Canada oil embargo could jeopardize national unity So far, Trump has given no indication that he may exempt Canada’s oil from the tariffs. Canada supplies more than 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, accounting for the majority of US oil imports. The oil goes mainly to US Midwest refineries, such as BP’s Whiting plant in Indiana, that are configured to process heavy Canadian crude. The move could be felt in the US as well as Canada. IMPACTS ON US The US Midwest refiners buy the Canadian oil at a discount, a price advantage they would lose with the tariffs. The refiners will not be able to quickly secure alternative sources of heavy crude, and neither will they be able to quickly reconfigure their processing units to lighter oil. The tariffs will raise US domestic energy prices, in particular gasoline prices – running counter to Trump’s campaign promises to address inflation and reduce costs for consumers. US inflation expectations have already been rising, partly because of the planned tariffs. Higher inflation expectations could prompt the US Federal Reserve to delay further rate cuts and possibly even raise rates, slowing the economy. The imported cheap Canadian crude frees up higher-priced US oil for export to other nations, allowing the US to run a trade surplus in oil with those countries, an advantage that may be lost if tariffs are imposed. ICIS feedstocks and fuels analyst Barin Wise said that it was hard to believe that Trump would place tariffs on Canadian oil as this would cause a big problem for US refiners processing the oil, with very limited alternatives to run in their plants. “This would cause prices to rise, which is the last thing Trump would want to see,” Wise said. “I suppose we will know for sure shortly.” IMPACTS OF OIL EMBARGO ON CANADA There was much discussion this week in Canada about responding to the US tariffs by imposing an oil embargo or putting an export tax on oil. However, analysts noted that those counter-measures would have self-defeating impacts on Canada: Producers in oil-rich Alberta province ship oil to eastern Canada on a pipeline system that passes through Wisconsin and Michigan (Enbridge’s Line 5) before re-entering Canada near the Sarnia refining and petrochemicals production hub in Ontario. In case of a Canadian oil embargo, Trump would likely stop the flow of Canadian oil on Line 5 to destinations in eastern Canada. As a result, an embargo would not just hit the US but cause a supply squeeze and higher energy prices in Ontario and Quebec, which are home to much of Canada’s auto, aerospace and other manufacturing. An oil embargo could also give new life to the Michigan state government’s efforts to shut down Line 5, because of environmental concerns. Canada could use rail to ship oil from Alberta to eastern Canada, but this would be expensive and there is not enough railcar capacity to replace the lost pipeline volumes. Canada could import oil through Montreal and other Canadian East Coast ports to replace the Alberta oil, but that would also be expensive. Furthermore, the flow of a pipeline (Enbridge’s Line 9) supplying refineries in Ontario and Quebec goes from west to east, and not from east to west. A flow reversal would be a costly undertaking. Once the US Midwest refiners have reconfigured their refineries to lighter oil or found alternative sources of heavy crude, they may not want to go back to Canadian crude if the tariffs are lifted later. Alberta, as well as Saskatchewan, would lose substantial revenues from their oil exports to the US. Both provinces have said they oppose an embargo. CANADA MUST AVOID UNITY CRISIS However, there is much more at stake for Canada. The premier (governor) of Alberta, Danielle Smith, has warned that the country’s national unity would be jeopardized if the federal government imposes an embargo. She refused to endorse a joint statement by the federal government and 12 of Canadas 13 provincial premiers at a summit this week, on Canada’s position in facing the US tariff threat. The statement is broad and does not even mention oil, but Smith said she could not endorse it as it did not rule out an embargo or an oil export tax. “Alberta will simply not agree to export tariffs on our energy or other products, nor do we support a ban on exports of these same products,” she said on social media. Smith added that an oil embargo was also unacceptable as politicians in eastern Canada, she claimed, had blocked the Energy East oil pipeline project to ship oil from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec and to export markets. The cancellation of Energy East deprived Alberta of an important opportunity to reduce its dependence on the US market, she argued. She failed to mention, however, the Trans Mountain oil pipeline. The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau bought and expanded Tans Mountain by nearly 600,000 bbl/day, enabling oil shipments from Alberta to an export terminal near Vancouver. Trudeau noted this week that the government did this to the benefit of Alberta’s oil industry, with funding from all of Canada’s taxpayers. Smith has often disagreed with the federal government over oil and environmental issues. In 2022 she put in place an “Alberta Sovereignty Act” to challenge federal laws. The act has not yet been reviewed by Canada’s Supreme Court. Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper, siding with Smith, warned against imposing an oil embargo or other oil export restrictions. Such measures would incite renewed separatist sentiment in Alberta, the paper said in an editorial on Thursday and reminded readers of the alienation caused in Alberta by former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program (NEP) in the early 1980s. (Pierre was the father of Justin Trudeau). The NEP was seen by Alberta as an unfair attempt to redistribute its oil wealth to Ontario, Quebec and other eastern provinces. Instead of an embargo, Canada needed to use targeted tariffs that “inflict the greatest possible political damage on Mr Trump”, and it should particularly target exports from US swing states, the paper said. Longer-term, Canada needed to have a fresh look at projects such as Energy East to reduce its dependence on the US market, it added. However, Trudeau and Ontario premier Doug Ford insisted that Alberta put Canada first, ahead of its own needs. All options must be on the table, including an embargo, in case the trade conflict escalates, they said. Commentators said that even if Trump exempts Canadian oil, Canada should consider an oil export tax as it could not allow a large part of its economy being devastated by the US tariffs while Alberta does business as usual with the US. Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s opposition Conservatives, has yet to state whether he would use an oil embargo as a weapon in a trade dispute. The issue of Canada’s response to the US tariff challenge is expected to be at the center of the upcoming election campaign. Elections that must be held before October but will likely be called earlier. The Conservatives are far ahead of Trudeau’s Liberals in opinion polls on the elections. Furthermore, the Liberals are in disarray. Trudeau last week announced his resignation, and the Liberals have opened the process of selecting a new leader who will then also take over as the new prime minister until the elections. Meanwhile, the federal government has prepared a list of US products to be targeted with potential retaliatory tariffs. Details will be released only after Trump moves ahead with the tariffs, officials said. According to public broadcaster CBC the list includes certain US-made plastics products. In Canada’s chemical industry, trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) this week joined the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and others in forming a new group to jointly confront the imminent US tariff threat. Canada’s chemicals and plastics industry accounts for more than Canadian dollar (C$) $100 billion (US$69 billion) in annual shipments. Nearly two-thirds of those shipments are exported to the US, with a reciprocal value returning to Canada from the US, according to Ottawa-based CIAC, which speaks for Canada’s chemical and plastics industry (US$1=C$1.44) Insight by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail photo of Imperial Oil’s Cold Lake oil sands site in Alberta; the Toronto-listed ExxonMobil affiliate is one of Canada’s largest oil companies, and it also produces petrochemicals. Photo source: Imperial Oil.

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Flake sellers see more positive start to 2025 based on January volumes Feedstock bale prices still a key issue Buyers yet to accept higher prices for January February price talks not yet underway

LONDON (ICIS)–Global economic growth this year is expected to increase modestly compared to 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday, as stronger expectations of US growth offset an increasing bearish outlook for Europe. Global GDP is expected to increase 3.3% this year, according to IMF’s latest economic outlook. Representing a 0.1 percentage point increase from the fund’s October 2024 outlook, the uptick is driven by a more robust forecast for the US offsetting weaker expectations for the eurozone and the Middle East. The US economy is expected to expand 2.7% this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the IMF’s October forecast, driven by a strong wealth effect – where consumers spend more as the value of their assets rise –  and supportive financial conditions. Eurozone growth for the year is expected at 1%,  a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from the IMF’s previous estimate, as continued weakness for manufacturing and exports continued to weigh on the bloc. Industrial weakness, political volatility and policy uncertainty all weighed on eurozone growth expectations, with substantially weaker expectations for many core economies, particularly Germany and France. Germany’s 2025 GDP is expected to expand by 0.3%, a 0.5 percentage point downgrade compared to October, while projected French growth of 0.8%represents a 0.3 percentage point markdown. China’s economy is expected to grow 4.6% this year, a 0.1 percentage point increase on the IMF’s October projections but below official targets of 5% and a decline from 2024, with 2026 expected to be weaker still at 4.5%. A $1.4 trillion stimulus package intended to alleviate local government debt burdens drove the modest uptick in the IMF’s growth expectations for the country. China’s growth rate next year is expected to be supported by increases to the statutory retirement age, which is expected to slow the decline in labor supply, the fund added. Moves by the OPEC+ alliance of countries to extend production cuts has resulted in  1.3 percentage point downgrade for Saudi Arabia growth expectations, to 3.3%. This downgrade also drove down growth projections for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as a whole, with the IMF cutting 0.5 percentage points of 2025 regional growth expectations to 3.5% Strong non-OPEC crude supplies and weak China demand are likely to drive a 2.6% decline in energy commodity prices, substantially below previous estimates, according to the IMF, while commodity prices overall are likely increase. Latin American growth expectations were  unchanged from previous IMF estimates at 2.5%. Despite stronger than previously projected US growth expectations, fresh tariff measures introduced by incoming President Donald Trump could hit global growth expectations in the mid-term, the IMF said. Fresh tariff measures could place upward pressure on inflation, along with the cyclic market positions of many key economies are more conducive to higher inflation today than in 2016, the IMF added. Restrictions on difficult-to-substitute raw materials and intermediate goods as a result of US tariffs or retaliatory measures could also heat up markets. “The risk of renewed inflationary pressures could prompt central banks to raise policy rates and intensify monetary policy divergence. Higher-for-even-longer interest rates could worsen fiscal, financial, and external risks,” the IMF said in the January world economic outlook. “ A stronger US dollar…could alter capital flow patterns and global imbalances and complicate macroeconomic trade-offs.” Focus article by Tom Brown Thumbnail photo: The bull on Wall Street (Source: Shutterstock)