LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: FD NWE colourless flake under downward pressure for November Views divided, some see stability, others see softer prices PET tray demand suffering in Q4 Reductions ahead of SUPD paints negative picture for legislation

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s petrochemicals exports in October rose by 10.2% year on year to $4.0 billion, reversing a two-month decline, official data showed on Friday. The country’s overall exports for the month rose by 4.6% year on year to $57.5 billion, growing for the 13th month in a row, while imports were up by 1.7% at $54.4 billion, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) said in a statement. The trade balance stood at a surplus of $3.17 billion. South Korea’s energy imports decreased 6.7% year on year due to lower international crude prices. Ten out of 15 major export items posted growth in October. Semiconductor exports surged 40.3% year on year to a record high of $12.5 billion last month, while exports of petroleum products decreased 34.9% year on year to $3.4 billion on a decrease in unit price brought about by cooled oil prices. Meanwhile, automobile exports grew 5.5% year on year to $6.2 billion. By region, Korea’s exports to five of its nine major destinations increased in October. Exports to China grew 10.9% year on year to $12.2 billion, the highest in 25 months since September 2022, as demand for semiconductors and petrochemicals surged. US-bound exports hit $10.4 billion, up by 3.4% year on year, while exports to the EU rose by 5.7% to $5.3 billion.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asahi Kasei’s April-September 2024 net income increased nearly doubled, thanks to strong sales across business segments, the Japanese producer said on Friday. in billion yen (Y) Apr-Sept 2024 Apr-Sept 2023 % change Net sales               1,490.3               1,345.9 10.7 EBITDA                  197.5                  144.7 36.5 Operating income                    108.9                     55.9 94.9 Net income                     60.2                     30.8 95.3 Its material business reported strong earnings due to firm demand in the semiconductor and electronics markets. The segment’s fiscal H1 operating income surged to Japanese yen  (Y) 50.2 billion ($329 million) from Y17.7 billion in the previous corresponding period, with sales surging by 12.4% to Y685.7 billion. Asahi Kasei revised up its year-to-March 2025 net income forecast to Y110 billion, more than double the Y43.8 billion profit recorded in the previous fiscal year. It expects operating margin to improve on higher petrochemical market prices. ($1 = Y152.5) Thumbnail image: At a semiconductor device manufacturing enterprise in  Binzhou City in Shandong, China – 18 July 2023. (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Understanding chemicals and polymers demand during the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle was easy, firstly, because demand always boomed and secondly,  because these were the dominant factors shaping markets: Lots of young people moving to the cities in China to make goods for export followed by China’s enormous debt and speculation bubble from 2009 onwards, which was mainly centered on real estate. Now, as the future of demand growth is in the Developing World ex-China, we need to understand hundreds of different countries. Before you get carried away with excitement, ICIS analysis suggests this: Developing World ex-China demand cannot do anything over as long as perhaps the next seven years to substantially absorb all-time high levels of oversupply. Why the oversupply? Because too many people missed the build-up of demographic and debt challenges in China and didn’t react quickly enough when the 2021 Evergrande Moment arrived. This is a lesson for how we analyze the Developing World ex-China. Focusing on polypropylene (PP) as an example: Despite the Developing World ex-China’s much bigger population of around six billion versus China’s population of some 1.4 billion, ICIS still expects that by 2030, Developing World ex-China’s demand will be some 8 million tonnes lower than China’s. The ICIS base case assumes that global PP capacity exceeding demand will average 25 million tonnes a year in 2021-2024. This compares with just 5 million tonnes a year during the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle. Global operating rates averaged 87% in 1992-2023. But given this oversupply, our forecast for 2024-2030 is 77%. To achieve 87%, assuming our base case assumption for production is right (the same as demand), capacity would have to grow by an average 2.2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 4.8 million tonnes. As feedstock-advantaged producers such as those in the Middle East are likely to press ahead with projects, and as China may continue to add more capacity, capacity growth of 2.2 million tonnes a year implies closures of plants elsewhere. The ICIS base assumes 4% average annual PP demand growth in China in 2024-2030 when 2%, in my view, is more likely. If 2% growth were to happen, and demand growth in the other regions was the same as our base case, capacity growth would need to be just 1.4 million tonnes year to achieve an 87% operating rate in 2024-2030. Let’s next take 2% off Chinese growth and add this to our base case forecast for the Developing World ex-China. Capacity would still have to grow by just 1.9 million tonnes a year to achieve an 87% operating rate in 2024-2030 compared with, as mentioned earlier, our base case assumption of capacity growth of 4.8 million tonnes. While, as I said, the Developing World ex-China offers long-term big opportunities, we should keep in mind the words of Mark Twain: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer producer Atlas Agro announced it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with renewable energy company Casa dos Ventos with a goal of utilising wind and solar projects to supply renewable energy for green fertilizer produced using green hydrogen. The company said the partnership seeks to combine the competitiveness of Casa dos Ventos’ renewable portfolio and solutions to produce hydrogen at Atlas Agro’s Uberaba fertilizer plant, contributing to the expansion of the renewable energy matrix and the sustainability of Brazilian agriculture. The Atlas Agro project is expected to start commercial operations in 2028 with the capacity to produce approximately 530,000 short tons/year of green ammonium nitrate, considered essential for reducing carbon emissions in agricultural production. The plant will require an average of 300 megawatt of renewable energy, which will be supplied by Casa dos Ventos. The project aims not only to produce a more sustainable input, but also to reduce Brazil’s dependence on imports as the country is currently the largest global importer with an estimated 41 million short tons arriving in 2023. “Atlas Agro’s mission is to decarbonize global nitrogen production. Cost-competitive and reliable energy is the basis for producing sustainable nitrogen fertilizers at affordable prices for local farmers,” said Knut Karlsen, Atlas Agro Brazil president. “We are excited to partner with Casa dos Ventos to bring green and locally produced nitrogen fertilizers to Brazilian agriculture.”

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Australian Kore Potash announced it has finalised the agreement on the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Kola project with PowerChina International Group Limited (PowerChina) on 28 October. Kore Potash and PowerChina are now working towards convening a date which is currently set for 19 November for the signing ceremony with the Minister of Mines and other officials in the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville. In an update on financing, the company said it continues to work with the Summit Consortium to provide for the construction cost and is intended to be based on royalty and debt finance. Kore Potash added that the financing parties have confirmed their ongoing strong interest and has advised that the term sheet will be provided within three months of the execution of the EPC contract. The company does plan to conduct a small capital fund raise in November to finance working capital. Kola is expected to be designed with the capability to produce 2.2 million tonnes/year of granular muriate of potash (MOP) over an initial 31-year life.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–More chemical industry leaders are making bold strategic decisions to combat a multi-year downturn, driving their companies to focus on areas where they can seize a competitive advantage. China-driven overcapacity could imbalance global supply/demand until 2030 Need for large-scale capacity closures to balance market Industry has reached turning point Companies can choose to focus on commodities or become specialty/low carbon players CEOs waking up to the need for a radical examination of their assets and strategies A trickle of announcements about closures and restructurings turning into a flood leaders such as BASF, Dow, LyondellBasell, Versalis take bold steps to reduce their commodity footprint in Europe In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. This is the audio version of a special ICIS Think Tank Live webinar (see below) recorded on 30 October. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organizing regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here. Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s Siam Cement Group (SCG) will invest $700 million to pave the way for Vietnam’s first integrated petrochemical complex to use US ethane as feedstock for production. Project completion slated in end-2027 Ethane to account for as much as two-thirds of LSP cracker feedstock Bulk of investments go toward handling/storage of ethane The project, which will mean increased feedstock diversification for its wholly owned Vietnamese subsidiary Long Son Petrochemicals (LSP), is expected to be completed by the end of 2027, SCG said in a bourse filing on 30 October. LSP is currently working with Vietnamese authorities to acquire necessary certificates and permits to build storage and supporting facilities at the complex in Bah Ria-Vung Tao province in southeastern Vietnam. The cracker at the site can produce 950,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, 400,000 tonnes/year of propylene, and 100,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD). Once the ethane enhancement project is completed, LSP will be able to utilize ethane for as much as two thirds of its total feedstock, in addition to propane and naphtha. By utilizing imported ethane from the US as raw material, “LSP can significantly enhance its competitiveness through lower feedstock cost and flexibility, while also lowering carbon emissions”, SCG said. Majority of the investment will go toward handling and storage of the ethane feedstock, which requires temperature as low as minus 90-degree Celsius, it said. LSP was completed at a cost of $5.2 billion whose commercial operations began on 30 September 2024 “following a comprehensive test period”, SCG said. The Thai conglomerate first announced the plan to use US ethane as feedstock for LSP in September, noting that over the past three years, its average price has been lowered by around 40% compared with those of naphtha and propane. Most crackers in Asia use naphtha as feedstock whose prices track highly volatile upstream crude movement. “In light of the existing petrochemical trough with historical low margin, and current volatile global economic environment, LSP is closely monitoring the market situation and will adjust the run rate of its operation during this challenging period for petrochemical business,” SCG said. Focus article by Pearl Bantillo (adds details throughout) Initial reporting by Fanny Zhang Thumbnail image: Container cargo ships unload at a port in Hai Phong, Vietnam on 25 May 2015. (Minh Hoang/EPA/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–State-owned energy companies Saudi Aramco and Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (Petrovietnam) will explore opportunities in storage, supply and trading of energy and petrochemical products. The two companies signed a collaboration framework agreement during a state visit of Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to Saudi Arabia on 30 October, Aramco said in a statement. “This agreement lays the foundation for potential collaboration across the hydrocarbon value chain,” Aramco downstream president Mohammed Al Qahtani said. “We look forward to exploring multiple opportunities with Petrovietnam that complement Aramco’s global downstream ambitions, contribute to Petrovietnam’s own strategy, and reinforce Asia’s importance in global energy and petrochemicals markets,” he said. Saudi Aramco, which is the world’s biggest crude exporter, has been diversifying its business by heavily investing in petrochemicals. Vietnam is one of the fast-growing emerging economies in southeast Asia. It recently started up its first integrated petrochemical complex, which is operated by Long Son Petrochemical – a wholly owned subsidiary of SCG (Siam Cement Group) Chemicals.