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Latin America stories: weekly summary
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 27 January. NEWS Colombia accepts US terms for migrants’ deportations, fends off 25% tariff threat Colombia became over the weekend the first Latin American country to get a taste of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy mixed with unconventional diplomacy after the country refused landing to two flights with repatriated Colombian migrants. INSIGHT: Trump executive orders to revamp US energy and trade policyBuckle your seatbelts. US President Trump kicked off Day One with a slew of executive orders that will completely revamp energy and trade policy, with major implications for chemicals and plastics. INSIGHT: Argentina’s chemicals, manufacturing could be collateral victims of liberalization pushArgentina’s cabinet drive to shift the economy from staunch protectionism into liberal bastion is increasing fears among chemicals and wider manufacturing players that the country’s beleaguered industrial fabric is yet to suffer further losses in output in coming years. INSIGHT: Brazil’s GDP to be hit by potential US tariffs; COP30 loses significant emitter Brazil could be hit with US import tariffs of 5% by mid-2025, according to credit rating agency Moody’s, while the Brazilian leading role in climate negotiations in November will be diminished as one of the largest carbon emitters, the US, is absent from the talks. Argentina’s manufacturing output still falling but ‘expansionary phase’ starting overallArgentina’s petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing output continued falling in November, down 2.3% year on year, but overall economic output rose while consumer and business confidence is growing. Brazil’s grain harvest expected at record 322 million tonnes, up 8%Brazil’s fertilizers-intensive agricultural sector is expected to produce 322.3 million of grains, pulses, and oilseeds in the 2024-2025 harvest, up 8.2% year on year, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). Mexico’s cabinet wants Pemex to meet 80% of national fertilizers demandThe Mexican government continues putting high hopes on Pemex’s ability to sharply increase its fertilizers output and has suggested the state-owned energy major produce as much as 80% of the country’s demand. Brazil’s Petrobras to start up ANSA fertilizer plant in H2 2025Petrobras will start up its ANSA fertilizers plant in Araucaria, state of Parana, in the second half (H2) 2025, according to a spokesperson for the Brazilian state-owned energy major. German lubes maker Fuchs forms JV with distributor Remsac in PeruFuchs Group has established a joint venture in Peru with local distributor Remsac, the German lubricants producer said on Friday. Austria’s ALPLA to take majority stake in Brazilian recycler Clean BottleAustrian packaging firm ALPLA aims to enter Brazil’s recycling market by purchasing a majority stake acquisition in high density polyethylene (HDPE) recycler Clean Bottle, the company said on Wednesday. Brazil’s December lube demand risesBrazil’s lube demand rose in December for a ninth month on the back of a jump in consumption of everything from transformer oils to engine oils. PRICING Braskem-Idesa announces February price increase in MexicoBraskem Idesa is seeking a price increase of $110/tonne on high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) as of 1 February, according to a customer letter seen by ICIS. LatAm PP domestic, international prices increase in Mexico on higher spot propylene costsDomestic and international polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Mexico, tracking higher spot propylene costs. In other Latin American countries, domestic prices were unchanged. LatAm international LLDPE, HDPE prices steady to higher on back of expensive US export offersInternational linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) prices were assessed as steady to higher across Latin American countries. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) prices were assessed unchanged.
CN Railway, union are getting closer to a labor contract – IBEW
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian National Railway (CN) and a union representing signal and communication workers are still in talks, and they are getting closer to reaching a deal, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) said on Monday. The union members total 750. The union has issued a strike notice, allowing them to walk out as early as Tuesday. “The company and the union are getting closer to reaching a deal, and we are optimistic that a deal can be reached and strike action avoided,” according to a statement by Jason Sommer, senior general chair, IBEW System Council No 11. “We are currently still at the table with the company, and with the assistance of federal mediators, we are striving to reach a fair and equitable deal for our members.” Outstanding issues are wages, reimbursement for travel and striking a better work-life balance for union members, Sommer said. If the union does call a strike, CN expects no disruptions. “There will be no impact on our operations as a result of a work stoppage,” the railroad said in a statement. “CN’s contingency plans are in place, operations will continue, and our dedicated teams are prepared to ensure the seamless continuity of service.” The two sides have been negotiating a labor contract since September. That agreement ended on 31 December 2024. Canadian chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail.
CN Railway expects no disruptions from impending strike by signal workers
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian National Railway (CN) expects no disruptions from a strike by signal and communication workers that could start on Tuesday, the Canadian railroad company said. The union members total 750, and they belong to the International Brotherhood of Electric Workers (IBEW). The union has issued a strike notice, allowing them to walk out as early as Tuesday. “There will be no impact on our operations as a result of a work stoppage,” the railroad said in a statement. “CN’s contingency plans are in place, operations will continue, and our dedicated teams are prepared to ensure the seamless continuity of service.” The IBEW did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The two sides have been negotiating a labor contract since September. That agreement ended on 31 December 2024. Canadian chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Thumbnail shows a railroad. Image by Shutterstock.

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Colombia accepts US terms for migrants’ deportations, fends off 25% tariff threat
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Colombia became over the weekend the first Latin American country to get a taste of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy mixed with unconventional diplomacy after the country refused landing to two flights with repatriated Colombian migrants. After refusing the aircrafts entry, in a few frantic hours on Sunday (26 January), Colombian goods heading to the US were on the verge of facing a 25% tariff. The Latin American country, a traditional US ally in the region although with more strained relations as of late due to the policies of Colombian left-leaning President Gustavo Petro, backed down and said it would accept deportations to be carried out under US terms. The move by the US came as a surprise to most analysts in Latin America, who have spent weeks forecasting soon-to-be-implemented tariffs on Mexico and, outside Latin America, on Canada – the two countries form the free trade zone under the USMCA trade agreement. Colombia had been mostly absent from the equation as the first country potentially subject to tariffs, especially as the country’s exports to the US are a daily staple on many US tables – coffee, avocado – as well as in the country’s car tanks. Colombia’s state-owned energy major Ecopetrol exports to the US are a key part of its business, with daily shipments between 130,000-140,000 barrels/day (see bottom table). Ecopetrol and its subsidiary producing polypropylene (PP) Esenttia had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publishing. The chemicals section at Colombia’s industrial trade group Andi had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publishing either. BUSY SUNDAYOn Sunday afternoon, Trump posted on his own social media platform, called TruthSocial, a message explaining that “socialist” Petro had not allowed the flights to land on Colombian soil, “jeopardizing” the US’s national security. “I have directed my Administration to immediately take the following urgent and decisive retaliatory measures: Emergency 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the US,” said the US president. “In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%.” Trump added that the US would issue a travel ban and revoke visas for the Colombian government officials as well as “all allies and supporters”, including visa sanctions on all members of Petro’s political party, Colombia Humana. He added there would be enhanced customs and border protection inspections of all Colombian nationals and cargo on national security grounds, as well as the imposition of financial sanctions. By the end of the day, Colombia’s foreign minister, Luis Gilberto Murillo, spoke to reporters to explain the country’s new position, adding he would travel himself to Washington in coming days to hold “high-levels meetings” to follow up on the agreements reached on Sunday. “We have overcome the impasse with the US government… As a result of the joint work that led to the exchange of diplomatic notes between the two governments, we will continue to receive Colombians who return as deportees, guaranteeing them decent conditions as citizens with rights,” said Luis Gilberto Murillo. “The Colombian government, under the directive of President Gustavo Petro, has the presidential plane ready to facilitate the return of the compatriots who were to arrive in the country today in the morning on deportation flights. Colombia confirms that diplomatic channels of dialogue will be maintained to guarantee the rights, national interest and dignity of our citizens.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, “The government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens [migrants] from Colombia returning from the US, including on US military aircraft, without limitation or delay.” “Today’s [Sunday] events make clear to the world that America [the US] is respected again. President Trump will continue to fiercely protect our nation’s sovereignty, and he expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the US.” NEALRY $54 BILLION IN TRADEThe US and Colombia signed a free trade deal in 2006 which was fully implemented in 2012. In 2022, the US’s trade in goods and services with Colombia stood at $53.5 billion, with exports from the US at $28.7 billion and imports at $24.8 billion, according to figures by the US government. The US posted a trade surplus in its favor of $3.9 billion. The US economy is key to Colombia. According to figures from the US government, the country is Colombia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 34% percent of the Latin American country’s total trade. Meanwhile, Colombia is a top 10 supplier of crude oil to the US, a market which is dominated by the state-owned energy major Ecopetrol, which also produces petrochemicals directly and via subsidiaries such as Essentia, which produces PP. The two countries’ traditionally friendly relationship is reflected in these words from the US government about their bilateral trade deal: “The tariff reductions in the [free trade] agreement will expand exports of US goods alone by more than $1.1 billion, supporting thousands of additional US jobs. The agreement provides significant new access to Colombia’s $166 billion services market, supporting increased opportunities for US service providers,” said the US cabinet on the site dedicated to the free trade deal with the Latin American country. “Colombia is a fast-growing market of 45 million consumers, and the agreement will help strengthen the Colombian economy and promote its growing middle class, thereby bolstering a steadfast strategic partner in this Hemisphere. The agreement helps cement our broader relationship with a country that plays an increasingly important role in the region and around the world.” US crude imports by country of originIn barrels/day 1- Canada 4,339,000 2- Mexico 526,000 3- Saudi Arabia 810,000 4- Iraq 209,000 5- Colombia 136,000 6- Brazil 178,000 7- Nigeria 56,000 8- Venezuela 521,000 9- Ecuador 69,000 10-Libya 32,000 Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Front page picture: Ecopetrol’s refinery in Barrancabermeja, some 400 kilometers (250 miles) north of Bogota Picture source: Ecopetrol  Additional information by Ignacio Sotolongo
PODCAST: Europe oxo-alcohols, derivatives markets mostly sluggish into 2025
LONDON (ICIS)–European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets have been slow to start up in the new year as familiar factors suppress consumption. Players were hoping for reasonable restocking activity this month, following the destocking period that took place in late Q4 2024, but spot activity has been below expectations for many players down the value chain. Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye speaks to acrylate esters reporter Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers reporter Cameron Birch about conditions down the oxo-alcohols value chain.  
Americas top stories: weekly summary
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 24 January. Hard freeze to hit chem plants on US Gulf Coast, threatens operations Temperatures along the US Gulf Coast should fall well below freezing later in the week and remain there for a prolonged stretch, threatening operations at chemical plants and refineries. US President Trump proposes no tariffs on first day in office US President Donald Trump proposed no new tariffs on his first day of office, and instead instructed his administration to investigate the nation’s trade deficit and other areas of trade policy. INSIGHT: US tariffs slower to materialize as Trump assumes the US Presidency A US Presidential inauguration day packed with fresh legislation saw few of the expected moves on tariffs and trade policy. UPDATE: US Gulf Coast chemical plants reel from cold snap Cold weather in the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday is expected to disrupt petrochemicals operations in Texas and Louisiana as companies take preventive measures. INSIGHT: Trump’s first-day orders lay groundwork for future tariffs US President Donald Trump did not propose any new tariffs on his first day in office, but he did issue an executive order that calls for his administration to conduct the investigations needed to impose them under several sections of the law – in many cases, repeating the same playbook Trump used during his first term in office. UPDATE: US freeze shuts numerous chem plants, major ports Winter storm Enzo, which caused a hard freeze along the US Gulf Coast, led to widespread shutdowns among chemical plants and refineries. INSIGHT: Trump’s moratorium on federal wind projects may have little effect on epoxy The moratorium on federal permits for wind projects will likely have little effect on the US industry and on the epoxy resins it consumes because most turbines are built on private land. US ExxonMobil may build cracker, PE plant in Texas ExxonMobil may build an ethane cracker and polyethylene (PE) plant near Corpus Christi, Texas, the company said in an application for a tax break.
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 24 January. Eurozone private sector returns to growth in January as inflation heats up Private sector activity in the eurozone returned to a growth footing for the first time in nearly half a year in January, with an expanding service sector counterbalancing stronger but still contractionary manufacturing. Europe phenol market squeezed by low demand, high energy costs in Q1 The European phenol market has had a tough start to 2025, with the outlook for demand weak for the first half of the year and the specter of growing energy costs challenging margins. Eastern Europe colourless PET bottle bale prices rise as availability tightens Colder weather means less polyethylene terephthalate (PET) beverage bottle consumption, and as winter grips Europe, many PET recyclers expect feedstock bale availability to tighten during Q1. US tariffs slower to materialize as Trump assumes the US Presidency US Presidential inauguration day packed with fresh legislation saw few of the expected moves on tariffs and trade policy. Europe PE/PP 2025 contract talks see buyers and sellers practice caution Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) contracts talks for 2025 have seen players in Europe adopt a cautious outlook.
BLOG: US-to-China HDPE: The “known, unknowns” and the “known, knowns”
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Donald Rumsfeld’s famous comments about “known, unknowns” and “known, knowns” remains useful (let’s leave aside “unknown, unknowns” for the time being). Let’s apply his comments to high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as we try to answer the question of whether the US can retain the strong position it has enjoyed in China over the last three years. See today’s post in full here with the summary as follows: A “known, unknown” is that nobody has a clue about the outcome of US trade policies towards. So, prepare for anything from improved China/US trading relationships to a full-blown trade war and anything in between these two extremes. A “known, known” is that the US has over the last three years emerged as a winner in HDPE exports to China during what is at least a medium- term (this a second “known, known”, I believe) Chinese economic slowdown and the country’s rising HDPE self-sufficiency. This has been at the expense of Saudi Arabia, Iran and South Korea etc., as we can see from today’s main chart. Saudi Arabia’s sales turnover in China was down by an estimated $2.3bn in 2022-2024 versus 2019-2021. Iran was 1.8bn lower and South Korea 0.52bn lower. In contrast, the US was nearly a billion dollars in the black. We thus need a range of scenarios on our first “known, unknown” about how different US trade policy outcomes could reshape global HDPE trade flows and sales turnover in China, But another “known, unknown” is the extent to which lower Chinese import tariffs on US HDPE from February 2020 onwards has led to the US being a winner versus its feedstock advantages. Since the Evergrande Turning Point, its feedstock advantages over the Middle East as a whole have been slight (although Saudi ethane costs have gone up substantially in recent years and are reported to have gone up again this month), but huge over Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. Further, we don’t know the degree to which the mix of grades exported to China has also played a role. China is increasingly able to meet its commodity-grade needs but still requires substantial imports of higher-value grades as its economy matures. And what about production issues, i.e. outages and turnarounds? This leads us to our final “known, known”: That scenario modelling has become much more complex. Different assumptions on all the above variants – and probably more that I haven’t even thought of – need to be factored in as we assess future HDPE trade flows to China and earnings in China by the big exporters. This is where artificial intelligence can increasingly help us. Why make life hard for yourself by not making maximum use of AI? Don’t be a Luddite because the answers are not perfect now. AI will get better the more we work with it. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
China industries contract in January; official PMI falls to 49.1
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped back into contraction mode, with a January reading of 49.1, as factory activity wound down ahead of the eight-day Lunar New Year holiday, official data showed on Monday. Jan new export orders subindex falls to 46.4 from 48.3 in Dec Industrial profits fall for third straight year in 2024 Beijing likely to maintain “around 5%” growth target for 2025 The January PMI print ended a three-month expansion streak. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The eight-day Lunar New Year holiday which begins on 28 January, with its attendant mass migration of workers back to their hometowns weighed heavily on the country’s manufacturing sector in January, according to Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The new orders subindex stood at 49.2 in January, down from 51.0 in the December 2024; while the subindex for new export orders fell to 46.4, compared with 48.3 in the previous month, the data showed. China’s key exports sector remains under scrutiny, particularly after the country’s exports surged by 10.7% year on year in December, driven by concerns over potential tariffs by major trade partner – the US. Manufacturers had front-loaded orders in anticipation of these tariffs, leading to the significant increase in exports. Trump on 21 January said he is considering 10% tariffs on imports from China that would take effect as early as 1 February, citing the east Asian country’s purported role in the trade of addictive synthetic opioid fentanyl. Fentanyl is responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths annually in the US, according to the US Drug Enforcement Administration. Trump’s comments came a day after he ordered an investigation into Chinese trade practices but held off on announcing any new tariffs. “A lot of what Trump pledged to do was carried out on Day 1 with the absence of concrete tariff measures a significant relief, but a delay does not imply no tariffs. There is after all another 4 years of Trump to go,” Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said in a note. UOB expects a staggered implementation of the tariffs, starting as early as Q2 2025 and concluding by the first half of 2026. China’s economy posted a 5% growth last year, reaching the government’s target, following extensive government stimulus measures. The economy, however, continues to face challenges, including a sluggish property market, weakening domestic demand, and fragile business confidence. This imbalance is evident in December’s economic data, which showed industrial output outpacing retail sales, while the unemployment rate edged higher. Meanwhile, separate data from the NBS on Monday showed that profits at China’s industrial firms fell for a third straight year in 2024, contracting by 3.3% after the 2.3% decrease in 2023. The 2024 profits at state-owned companies fell by 4.6% year on year, while those of foreign firms fell by 1.7% and private-sector companies recorded a 0.5% rise in earnings, the data showed. In December alone, China’s industrial profits grew by 11% year on year, reversing the 7.3% decline in November. The industrial profit figures cover companies with annual revenues of yuan (CNY) 20 million or more from their core business operations. Beijing is likely to maintain its “around 5%” growth target for 2025, following a rebound in Q4 growth and achieving its 2024 target, Japan-based Nomura Global Markets Research said in a note. “However, we do not believe it is time for Beijing to be complacent… in addition to stepping up monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, Beijing needs to clear the property market, fix the fiscal system, reform the social welfare system, and alleviate geopolitical tensions to deliver a truly sustainable growth recovery.” ($1 = CNY7.26) Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman
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