US investors in talks to overturn sanctions related to Russian gas supply corridors Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 corridors would theoretically displace 110 billion cubic meters of alternative gas supplies Talks continue, but significant political, regulatory, technical hurdles remain LONDON (ICIS)–High-profile investors with links to US president Donald Trump’s family have been in talks to lift US sanctions against the Nord Stream corridor while snapping up stakes in other pipeline networks used to ship Russian gas to Europe, four sources familiar with discussions told ICIS. The talks follow reports last month that the owners of Nord Stream 2 AG, a Swiss-registered company overseeing the construction and operation of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, had reached a deal to restructure its debt and pay small-scale creditors. Bringing Nord Stream into operation would entail clearing significant political, regulatory and technical hurdles. Despite this, sources close to the EU and US Congress interviewed by ICIS say investors are positioning themselves for a post-war scenario where a settlement agreement is reached for Ukraine and Russian gas exports to return. Three of the four subsea Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany were damaged in 2022 and would need heavy repairs to be brought back into use. The fourth line, built as part of Nord Stream 2, is thought to be intact but would require maintenance before becoming operational. The resumption of full flows on the four Nord Stream pipelines would displace as much as 110 billion cubic meters of alternative gas supplies and eliminate the need for other Nordic, Baltic or southern European transport routes to emerge. US sanctions introduced five years ago ban individuals from selling, leasing or providing vessels engaging in pipe-laying or services to the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 pipelines. Yet sources say Stephen Lynch, a Republican donor and Miami-based investor with experience in acquiring distressed Russian assets, had paid off the Nord Stream debt and was actively lobbying European and US policymakers for the lifting of sanctions. INTERMEDIARIES One of the individuals Lynch has been in talks with is Texas businessman Gentry Beach, all sources confirmed. Beach has links to the US president’s son, Donald Trump Jr. Beach himself has been in touch with Romanian offshore logistics company GSP Offshore with a view to bringing Nord Stream back into use one, sources in the EU and US said. The company has provided drilling and support services to Gazprom in the past but is currently facing financial problems after racking up debt, according to company documents seen by ICIS. GSP Offshore did not respond to questions from ICIS. BULGARIAN LINK Gentry Beach’s name also recently surfaced in talks related to the acquisition of a stake in Bulgaria’s gas transmission infrastructure, which connects to TurkStream2 and is used for the transport of Russian gas to central Europe, according to two EU sources familiar with discussions. They explained Beach had been in contact with Bulgarian gas grid operator Bulgartransgaz after Elliott Investment Management, a US hedge fund managing over $70bn in assets, pulled out less than a month after signalling interest in acquiring a stake. Lynch and Beach did not reply to questions from ICIS. Bulgartransgaz did not reply to questions. A spokeswoman for Elliott Investment Management confirmed the company had had some preliminary discussions in Bulgaria but eventually decided to “pass on this”. LIFTING SANCTIONS The resumption of gas flows via Nord Stream 2 would hinge on the US Treasury lifting sanctions, persuading the EU that US ownership would guarantee compliance with a looming ban on Russian fossil fuel imports and lobbying German policymakers to unfreeze the certification of Nord Stream 2. Investors might find it challenging to meet these goals, the sources said. The two Nord Stream 2 pipelines, with a combined capacity of 55 billion cubic meters/year, were sanctioned in the US under the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA) and the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Clarification Act (PEESCA). Three of the four sources interviewed by ICIS confirmed Lynch had lobbied the Biden administration to remove the sanctions. Although these were not removed under the previous administration, they included a five-year sunset clause which meant they lapsed at the end of 2024. Even though Congress did not extend them under PEESA and PEESCA, they were renewed under a broader executive order authorising sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The sanctions are now in place as part of the catch-all executive order but they would be easier to overturn than if they had been extended under PEESA and PEESCA. All four sources interviewed by ICIS remain sceptical US president Donald Trump would be willing to scrap them, given his long-running opposition to the project. GERMANY All sources interviewed by ICIS said Lynch had been actively lobbying German policymakers to approve Nord Stream 2, certification of which was halted when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Even if a strong support base in Germany may exist among some policymakers, it would still be difficult to persuade the EU that imports via Nord Stream were fully compliant with the EU Russian gas import ban. The European Commission has introduced a set of proposals aimed at fully phasing out Russian fossil fuels by 2028 and has pitched a raft of tough transparency measures designed to enforce the ban.

Spoof signals hits vessel tracking around Hormuz Implications for ship safety and market analysis Impacting vessel scheduling to Ras Laffan but not production LONDON (ICIS)—Much focus from energy companies tracking hostilities between Israel and Iran has been on higher oil, gas and LNG prices but compromises to critical regional shipping data pose risks both to safety and wider data analysis. The corruption of the automated ship signal (AIS) data that vessels broadcast to alert others of their whereabouts has emerged in recent days, especially in and around the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow channel between Iran and Oman. On Monday 16 June, after a weekend of rocket fire between Iran and Israel, AIS data gathered by ICIS LNG Edge showed significant disruptions coming from several ships close to Ras Laffan, Qatar, in the Persian Gulf. In the case of LNG tankers, this manifested itself in ‘spoofed’ signals erroneously indicating that several vessels were located on the Iranian mainland. This was corroborated by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a shipping organisation that runs a Voluntary Reporting Scheme for the sector for the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea. “The level of electronic interference … inside the Gulf [is] having a significant impact on vessels’ positional reporting through automated systems. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and continue to report incidents of electronic interference,” the UKMTO said on 16 June. It has been reporting about GPS interference in the region since early May. AIS INTERVENTIONS Faced with these issues, ICIS LNG analysts have been carefully unpicking the satellite trails produced by spoofed LNG shipping to try to work out where they actually are. At the same time as UKMTO was issuing its warning, around six LNG vessels were broadcasting erroneous locations inside the Iranian mainland, at Asaluyeh, more or less opposite Bahrain on the other side of the Persian Gulf. These included Aseem, chartered by India’s Petronet; Rasheeda, Al Jasra, Simaisma and Maran Gas Troy – all of which are under Qatari control – and Italian Eni’s Maran Gas Efessos. Once identified, it is possible to manually delete the erroneous waypoints and reposition the vessel back where it was last reliably seen. However, given that each time the vessel broadcasts a new point it can place it back in Iran, ICIS has been generally been carrying out removals only once a vessel is clearly back on the move, as in the case of Maran Gas Troy, a laden vessel which was clearly rounding Hormuz in the evening of 17 June. MAJOR SAFETY IMPLICATIONS Together with marine radar, the AIS signature that ships broadcast to satellites is a key tool in collision avoidance for water traffic. On 17 June, however, a collision was reported between two vessels 26 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah. Footage later showed one of the vessels, an oil tanker, having sustained severe damage and burning strongly. There was “no indication the incident was the result of hostile activity resulting from the ongoing regional conflict,” UKMTO added, but the fact that the collision was caused by vessels sailing blind, rather than being hit by a missile is unlikely to calm the market significantly. This was in evidence in the rollcall of around 12 ballast vessels outside Ras Laffan at the start of the week, apparently waiting to load and move off. It subsequently emerged that QatarEnergy had reportedly instructed its ships to only make transit into the Persian Gulf the day before loading and to wait outside, in the Arabian Sea, until they were ready to do so. As of 17 June, LNG loadings from Qatar’s Ras Laffan stood at 45 over the prior 15-day period, which is squarely in line with expectations. With indications that insurance requirements have been preventing some shippers from entering the area for the time being, there is scope for further disruption.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in May jumped by 18.4% year on year to $31 billion, due to front-loaded shipments before the US’ temporary of reciprocal tariffs expires in early July. The growth in May was the largest since March 2022 and marked the fifth straight month of double-digit gains, preliminary official data showed on Wednesday. Total shipments to the US – Thailand’s largest exports destination – surged in May by 35.1% year on year, resulting in a trade surplus of $4.6 billion with the world’s biggest economy, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce. Thailand’s overall imports rose by 18% year on year to $29.9 billion in May, resulting in a trade surplus of around $1.1 billion. For the first five months of 2025, total exports rose by 14.9% year on year to $138.2 billion, while imports were up by 11.3% at $139.3 billion. Without a trade deal, Thailand’s exports to the US will be subject to a much higher tariffs of 36% in early July. Currently, a temporary moratorium allows Thailand and other nations to benefit from a reduced US tariff rate of 10%. The looming tariff hike could significantly hit Thailand’s export-driven economy, which relies heavily on markets like the US for goods such as electronics, automotive parts, and agricultural products. Thai commerce minister Pichai Naripthaphan was quoted by various media as saying on 16 June said that both nations could reach an agreement on possibly setting the US reciprocal tariffs at as low as 10%. Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

LONDON (ICIS)–UK inflation fell slightly in May from the previous month, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to May, compared with 3.5% in the 12 months to April. The Bank of England (BoE) lowered interest rates in May in an attempt to abate lofty inflation above its target of close to 2%. Transport was the key driver of cooling inflation, in part because of a drop in air fares and the price of motor fuels. Air fares fell by 5% between April and May, compared to a 14.9% rise between the same months a year prior. Vehicle excise duty was overstated in April, and was corrected in May, which also contributed to the decline in transport inflation. This offset rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and costs of furniture and household goods, which was the highest level since December 2023 (but still below peaks of 2022). A UK-US trade deal was announced on 8 May, the first following US President Donald Trump’s mass tariff rollout, in which the UK agreed to the 10% baseline rate from the US but gained concessions for the automotive industry.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s chemical exports in May declined by 5.6% year on year to yen (Y) 928 billion ($6.4 billion), contributing to the first contraction in its overall shipments abroad in eight months which raises the risk of a technical recession in the world’s fourth-biggest economy.  Total May exports fall by 1.7% on year  May exports to US shrink by 11.1% on year  Negotiations on US tariff exemption ongoing Exports of organic chemicals fell by 16.8% year on year to Y148.7 billion in May, while shipments of plastic products slipped by 1.6% to Y266.7 billion, preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) showed. By volume, May exports of plastic materials fell by 5.7% year on year to 413,270 tonnes. Japan’s total exports for the month fell by 1.7% year on year to Y8.13 trillion, reversing the 2.0% expansion in April and marked the first contraction in eight months – highlighting the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. With imports falling by 7.7% year on year to Y8.77 trillion in May, Japan registered a trade deficit of Y637.6 billion, extending its run of negative trade balances to two months. Overall shipments to the US – its largest export destination – fell by 11.1% year on year to Y1.51 trillion in May. Japan’s trade surplus with the US shrank 4.7% year on year to Y451.7 billion in May, marking the first decline in five months. Exports of cars to the US slumped by 24.2% year on year to Y358 billion in May, while shipments of motor vehicle parts fell by 19% to Y78.5 billion. Overall chemicals shipments to the US fell by 13% year on year to Y124.7 billion in May. It remains uncertain whether Japan’s attempts to secure an exemption from higher US tariffs will succeed. The 90-day suspension on US reciprocal tariffs aimed at narrowing a persistent trade gap with major trade partners are due to expire in early July for most countries, except China. For Japan, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on imports of cars and auto parts, alongside a baseline tax of 10% on all other Japanese goods. In early June, the levy on steel and aluminum was doubled to 50%. These tariffs are set to remain in place for now, as Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a deal on the sidelines of the Group of Seven leaders’ summit, despite two months of bilateral negotiations. The US’ 10% tariff across the board is slated to revert to 24% on 9 July, in line with announcements made in April. During talks at the G7 summit in Canada on 15 June, Ishiba confirmed that while the two countries have yet to finalize a trade package, they have agreed to continue discussions at the ministerial level. WORRIES OVER RECESSION GROWS The decline in exports and the widening trade deficit are fueling concerns that Japan’s economy could contract again in the second quarter, potentially ushering in a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. Japan’s economy contracted by 0.2% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, while the country’s real GDP in price adjusted terms was flat from the previous quarter. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on 17 June kept its policy rate steady at 0.5% and has reduced Japanese government bond purchases from by half to Y200 billion starting in April next year. In its policy statement, the BoJ reiterated that “it is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve and how overseas economic activity and prices will react to them”. “The extreme level of uncertainty is holding back the BoJ from raising rates further in the near-term,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at Japan-based MUFG Research. “A trade deal between the US and Japan in the coming months could give the BoJ more confidence to hike rates further if global trade disruption eases as well.” The BOJ is expected to maintain a “wait-and-see stance for longer than expected”, with central bank governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks on 17 June suggesting a reinforcement of the dovish stance, Dutch banking and financial services firm ING said in a note. Ueda stated that inflation expectations have not yet anchored at 2% and expressed concerns about tariffs potentially affecting future wages. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) in April rose by 3.5% year on year. “Governor Ueda attributed the majority of downside risks to US trade policy. Therefore, we think that unless Japan and the US reach an agreement on tariffs, the BoJ is likely to maintain its current rate stance,” ING said. “Unlike early expectations that Japan might make a deal with the US, negotiations have dragged on longer than expected. Thus, the BoJ’s action may be delayed to early 2026.” ($1 = Y145.1) Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: At a port in Tokyo, Japan, 12 May 2025. (FRANCK ROBICHON/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–PureCycle plans to reach 1 billion lb/year (454,000 tonnes/year) of capacity in the US by 2030, Europe and Asia, the US-base recycler of polypropylene (PP) said on Tuesday. As part of that push, PureCycle has started a partnership with IRPC Public Co Limited, under which PureCycle will build a 130 million lb/year line at IRPC’s complex in Rayong, Thailand. IRPC is a subsidiary of PTT. Construction should start in the second half of 2025, PureCycle said. The line should become operational in mid-2027. PureCycle will hold a 100% equity position, and IRPC will retain rights for 10% of the plant’s production. PureCycle has plans to build another 130 million lb/year plant in Antwerp, Belgium. It expects to receive final permits in 2026. The plant in Antwerp should become operational in 2028. PureCycle expects to begin construction on a Gen 2 facility in Augusta, Georgia, US, in mid-2026. The facility’s pre-processing (PreP) unit should be operational in mid-2026. The first purification line should be operational in 2029. PureCycle also plans to add compounding capabilities at the site, but it did not disclose timelines. The final Gen 2 design should have a capacity of more than 300 million lb/year before compounding, PureCycle said. The company will disclose design capacity in early 2026 after it finishes engineering. PureCycle will build another Gen 2 line in Thailand or Augusta. The following table summarizes PureCycle’s expansion plans. Figures are in millions of pounds per year. Site Capacity Belgium 130 Thailand 130 Augusta 300+ Augusta or Thailand 300+ TOTAL 860+ Source: PureCycle PureCycle has one operating facility in Ironton, Ohio, US, that has a capacity of 107 million lb/year. The following chart illustrates the timeline for the projects. Source: PureCycle PureCycle revealed the expansion plans when it announced that it raised $300 million from new and existing investors. Those investors include Duquesne Family Office, Wasserstein Debt Opportunities, Samlyn Capital, Pleiad Investment Advisors and Sylebra Capital Management. PureCycle recycles waste PP through a dissolution process. Thumbnail shows PP. Image by Shutterstock.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Aguia Resources has received an offer for bank financing from Brazil’s Southern Development Bank (BRDE) for the development of the Tres Estradas phosphate project and upgrading a processing facility in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The company said the approximately A$4 ($2.6) million loan will fund the capital expenditure required to start mining operations at Tres Estradas and to upgrade the processing facility which Aguia has leased from Dagoberto Barcellos (DB). The loan, which will be secured against the project surface rights held by Aguia, is for a period of 20 years. The DB plant currently has a processing capacity of approximately 100,000 tonnes/year but Aguia plans to increase that to a minimum of 300,000 tonnes/year by the end of 2026. Currently within the Rio Grande do Sul, which is one of the largest grain producing areas in Brazil, farmers rely completely on imported supply of phosphate. “The offer of finance from a government owned bank speaks volumes for the quality of the Tres Estradas project, confirming strong governmental and social support for the development,” said Warwick Grigor, Aguia Resources executive chairman. “Shareholders should be very pleased with this outcome as it is significantly better than spending A$30 million on a brand-new production facility, in both time and money, for the same production capacity.” A$1.00 = $0.68

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem is to divest its controlling stake at Upsyde, a recycling joint venture in the Netherlands, as the company aims to focus on its core chemicals and plastics production, the Brazilian polymers major said. The joint venture with Terra Circular was announced in 2022 and is still under construction. When operational, it will have production capacity of 23,000 tonnes/year of recycled materials from plastic waste. Braskem’s exit from Upsyde is likely related to the company’s pressing need to reduce debt and increase cash flow rather than a rethinking of its green targets, according to a chemicals equity analyst at one of Brazil’s major banks, who preferred to remain anonymous. Braskem’s spokespeople did not respond to ICIS requests for comment at the time of writing. The two companies never officially announced the plant’s start-up, and in its annual report for 2024 (published Q1 2025) Braskem still spoke about the project as being under construction. “Upsyde is focused on converting hard-to-recycle plastic waste through patented technology to make circular and resilient products 100% from highly recyclable plastic,” it said at the time. “Upsyde aims to enhance the circular economy and will have the capacity to recycle 23,000 tonnes/year of mixed plastic waste, putting into practice a creative and disruptive model of dealing with these types of waste.” BACK TO THE COREBraskem said it was divesting its stake at Upsyde to focus on production of chemicals and polymers – its portfolio’s bread and butter – and linked the decision to the years-long downturn in the petrochemicals sector, which hit the company hard. Financial details or timelines were not disclosed in the announcement, published on the site of its Mexican subsidiary, Braskem Idesa. “Considering a challenging environment for the petrochemical industry and a prolonged downcycle exacerbated by high energy costs and reduced economic activity in Europe, Braskem is redirecting all resources toward its core business: the production of chemicals and plastics,” Braskem said. “We remain committed to our sustainability agenda, as demonstrated by our recent investment in expanding biopolymer capacity in Brazil and the development of a new biopolymer plant project in Thailand.” The company went on to say it will also continue to maintain “several active partnerships” to advance research and potential upscaling capabilities for chemical recycling, projects for some of which Braskem has signed agreements to be off-takers for specialized companies. The European plastics trade group PlasticsEurope was until this week listing Upsyde as a project which would make a “tangible impact by upcycling mixed and hard-to-recycle” plastic waste in Europe. That entry, however, has now been taken down. Terra Circular and PlasticsEurope had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. Braskem’s management said earlier in 2025 the green agenda remains key for its portfolio, adding it would aim to leverage Brazil biofuels success story to increase production of green-based polymers, a sector the company has already had some success with production of an ethanol-based polyethylene (PE), commercialized under the branded name Green PE. The other leg to become greener, they added, was a long-term agreement with Brazil’s state-owned energy major for the supply of natural gas to its Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro, facilities to shift from naphtha to ethane. Last week, Braskem said that deal could unlock R4.3 billion ($785 million)  in investments at the site. GREEN STILL HAS WAY TO GOThe chemicals analyst who spoke to ICIS this week said for the moment there would be no sign of Braskem aiming to trim its green agenda, which has ambitious targets for 2030 in terms of production of recycled materials. He added Braskem’s shift from naphtha-based production to a more competitive ethane-based production will require large investments in coming years, so a strategy to increase cash flow as well as reduce high levels of debt would be divesting non-core assets and the divestment in the Dutch joint venture would be part of that plan. “Braskem has high debt levels, and they are looking for ways to reduce leverage. What they may be thinking is that, despite this divestment in a purely green project, they can still give a green spin to their operations if we consider the green PE, for which they have been expanding production,” said the analyst. “I don’t think they would be relinquishing or giving up any of their initiatives to go green, but I think it’s probably part of some initiatives they must increase efficiency and reduce costs and capital needs. So, they probably just saw this business as a main candidate to be divested.” ($1 = R5.50) Front page picture: Braskem’s plant in Triunfo, Brazil producting green PE Source: Braskem Focus article by Jonathan Lopez 

Ukraine’s high import needs spurs flurry of CEE gas-trading activity as more transmission corridors emerge Grid operators vie to offer attractive solutions, slashing tariffs or increasing capacity Increased CEE hub liquidity would breed further interest LONDON (ICIS)–Ukrainian gas incumbent Naftogaz has become the first company in central and eastern Europe (CEE) to use the Danish-Polish transit corridor for spot bookings to Ukraine, several traders active in the region told ICIS. Sources say there is a flurry of activity across theCEE gas market, driven primarily by high importing interest and soaring prices in Ukraine. Gas in Ukraine is trading at an estimated €9.30/MWh premium over the equivalent front-month TTF contract. A CEE trader said Naftogaz had made reservations on the Danish-Polish Baltic Pipe for a total of 1848MWh over three days to test the route, importing gas sourced on the local exchange. The Polish state incumbent Orlen holds a long-term booking for 8 billion cubic meters annually on the Baltic Pipe to Denmark. But the Danish grid operator Energinet is keen to market the remaining 2bcm/year capacity for North Sea gas or Danish VTP imports to other regional companies. A trader said the route was increasingly considered by companies due to the ease of doing business in Denmark. Anticipated lower short-term transmission tariffs in Poland and the doubling of firm export capacity from Poland to Ukraine were also cited as reasons. Last week Polish gas grid-operator Gaz-System and its Ukrainian counterpart, GTSOU announced the doubling of firm export capacity to Ukraine from six million cubic meters (mcm) daily to 11.5mcm/day from 1 July. LNG IMPORTS VIA POLAND, LITHUANIA Traders say they are also considering imports from Poland’s Swinoujscie  offshore terminal or Lithuania’s Klaipeda floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU). However, several noted that regional countries have limited market liquidity as the bulk of volumes is traded on the spot market. A source at the Klaipeda terminal told ICIS on 17 June that the company was planning to offer more regasification slots on a spot basis in upcoming months. He said that there are around 33 long-term contract unloadings each year, but operator KN Energies is planning to offer another four to five spot slots. He added  the terminal has a 30-day regasification capacity window which would fit the profile of standard monthly transmission-capacity bookings. RAPID CHANGES The CEE trader said the region was changing at a very rapid pace with grid operators vying to offer attractive solutions. Last month, transmission-system operators in south-east Europe said they would offer bundled firm export capacity from Greece to Ukraine at a discounted tariff. The first auction for Route 1 monthly bundled capacity will be held on 23 June and the five operators along the Trans-Balkan corridor will be holding a call with regional companies on 19 June to explain the new product. The CEE trader said: “We’ve seen a massive increase in firm export capacity from Poland to Ukraine. Moldova is reportedly planning to offer tariff discounts. “The Greek regulator is considering offering capacity for the superbundled capacity not only from LNG terminals but also from the VTP. Gaz-System said if Route 1 offers discounted tariffs they also may consider discounting tariffs. The southern route is more difficult from an operational point of view but it looks interesting,” the trader added.