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Butadiene11-Oct-2024
BARCELONA (ICIS)–German specialty group Evonik
plans to restructure two of its business units,
putting non-core assets up for sale, closure or
partnerships.
The Coating & Adhesive Resins and Health
Care businesses will be extensively
reorganized, with operations generating sales
of €350 million slated for strategic changes,
the company said on Friday.
In Health Care, production of keto acids for
pharmaceutical applications in Hanau, Germany,
is to be discontinued at the end of 2025, with
the loss of around 260 jobs. For the sites in
Ham (France) and Wuming (China) active in the
same business, partnerships or divestments are
being evaluated. The amino and keto acids
business generates sales of around €100
million.
In future, the Health Care business line will
focus on what Evonik considers to be its growth
areas: lipids for mRNA and gene therapies, drug
delivery systems, and cell culture ingredients.
Caspar Gammelin, head of the Nutrition &
Care division, said: “Our amino and keto acids
businesses in Ham and Wuming are strong and
offer great potential. With investments in
these sites, these businesses could reach their
full potential and flourish. We are therefore
examining options such as partnerships or
divestments that would allow the businesses to
prosper.”
COATINGS RESTRUCTURE
Evonik’s Coating & Adhesive Resins business
line will focus on two core areas for growth:
liquid polybutadienes as additives for
adhesives and sealants or tires, and specialty
acrylics for medical technology and the
packaging industry.
The business line’s existing polyolefins
business, with sales of around €100 million,
will be transferred to the C4 chain business at
Evonik. In the future, the business will be
sold as part of the C4 chain business.
The €150 million turnover polyester business
for coating and adhesive applications is to be
sold. It has around 330 employees in Germany
and China. The largest site, with around 250
employees, is in Witten (Germany). A smaller
plant in Shanghai has around 30 employees.
Lauren Kjeldsen, head of the responsible
division Smart Materials, said: “To be
successfully competing in the long term
globally and to generate the necessary margins,
investments are needed – and other companies
for which polyester is a core business can
realize these better than we can.”
Evonik, like many of its peers in the European
chemical sector, is under intense pressure from
mainly China-driven global overcapacity, with
companies under pressure to take radical action
to focus on core assets and close or sell other
operations.
As well as the ramp-up in global production
capacity, the region is being battered by a
global slump in demand and a high cost base,
which has led to collapsing margins and a wave
of capacity closures across Europe.
Thumbnail photo: Evonik’s Essen, Germany,
campus. Source: Evonik
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
UK colourless flake range widens in October
Eastern Europe bale, flake price views
divided
Frustration around single-use plastics
directive (SUPD) uncertainty
Food-grade pellet demand weak ahead of
January SUPD target
Polyester11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Imagine you sold a product with
no control over how much of it was produced at
any one time; that you had to sell it within
weeks of it being produced regardless of what
the demand for it was like; and that the demand
was constantly changing.
For most waste managers, no imagination is
required, this is their daily reality. And it’s
one of the biggest drivers of volatility
throughout the recycling chain globally.
Waste originates from both the general public
and industry, and as a result, the composition
and quantity of waste generated at any one time
varies continuously depending on consumer
behaviour and industrial production trends.
Waste managers typically hold contracts for
waste collection with municipalities. They
cannot turn material away. Because of
variations in consumer and industrial
production trends, different countries can have
vastly different supply at any one time.
The quality of that input waste (how
contaminated it is, the tensile strength etc.)
depends on a variety of factors including how
it’s been treated and stored before its entered
the chain, the type of additives it contains,
what other materials it has come into contact
with (because contact with substances such as
polyvinyl chloride (PVC) causes contamination),
level of discolouration, gel content, and
odour.
Coupled with this, the more times a polymer has
been recycled, the lower its tensile strength,
and typically end-use suitability becomes
increasingly limited. How many cycles it takes
before the waste material becomes unusable
varies from polymer-to-polymer, process to
process, and level of other degradation.
The longer you store waste (this is typically,
but not exclusively, in the form of bales)
without reprocessing it – or selling it on for
reprocessing – the more it degrades.
This can be due to a number of things,
including the contaminants it contains,
thermolytic degradation (from heat – typically
the sun), and hydrolytic degradation (from
water – common in the case of polyethylene
terephthalate (PET).
Meanwhile, new (and perhaps more valuable)
strains of waste are constantly entering the
chain, and warehouse space is limited.
If the waste quality is too low, then waste
managers either need to dispose of the
material, sell it to the burn-for-energy
sector, or use it captively for energy
creation. Burn-for-energy bales typically sell
at negative values, whereby sellers pay for the
removal of waste based on cost saving against
alternative disposal methods.
As a result, most waste managers look to
offload bales within a timeframe of around 4-6
weeks (although this varies from market to
market).
Reprocessed recycled material, meanwhile,
serves a huge variety of end-use markets. Major
offtake markets include, but aren’t limited to,
packaging, construction, automotive, outdoor
furniture, refuse bags, strapping, and
horticulture.
Demand between the end-uses also varies
dramatically, and players in each market
purchase for differing reasons.
Some markets, such as packaging, are heavily
driven by brand sustainability targets and
regulation, other markets, such as
construction, mostly purchase on cost saving
against virgin.
This has huge impacts on willingness to pay,
Intensifying legislative and consumer pressure
on sustainability in packaging over the past
few years has seen a significant pricing gap
develop between display packaging suitable, and
non-display packaging suitable grades across
most global recycled polymer markets.
There is currently, for example, a spread of up
to €1,500/tonne between the highest priced
grade of Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP)
pellet (which is a post-consumer natural grade
predominantly used in domestic goods and
cosmetic applications), and the lowest priced
grade (which is black injection-moulded
pellets, which typically serves non-packaging
applications).
Ideally (from their point of view) waste
managers and recyclers would primarily serve
applications driven by sustainability targets
where premiums are typically highest.
Nevertheless, each downstream market has
differing technical requirements – with
display packaging and automotive typically
having the strictest technical requirements and
construction, bin bags and outdoor furniture
the lowest. This means that there is typically
a higher volume of material sold into
non-packaging applications.
While sorting allows waste managers to extract
the valuable fractions and, to an extent,
control contaminants etc. it doesn’t control
the input waste mix. So the type of material
suitable to serve each application is changing
constantly. There is also a direct correlation
between feedstock waste quality and reprocessed
output quality for both mechanical and chemical
recycling.
This creates a continuous supply/demand
mismatch that is often underappreciated by
players newly entering the market.
This mismatch coupled with the need to offload
material relatively quickly is the reason, for
example, 90% mixed polyolefin bale prices have
traded as high as €600/tonne ex-works NWE
(northwest Europe) and as low as €0/tonne
ex-works NWE since July 2022.
Because waste
fractions typically produce a variety of
different flake and pellet grades depending on
what is extractable from individual bales –
especially for recycled polyolefins – they
typically react to system wide demand in each
locality.
Individual flake and pellet prices, though,
often react to demand from specific end-use
markets. This can result in periods where waste
bale prices are high but prices for some flake
and pellet grades those bales serve are low,
resulting in squeezed margins.
This is especially true for grades that are
purchased for cost-saving reasons, meaning that
they need to aggressively compete with virgin
and off-spec material.
The reverse also regularly occurs, whereby bale
prices can be low because demand in key
end-uses such as construction is weak and
general availability of waste is high, but
volumes extracted for packaging suitable grades
are limited and demand from that particular
sector is firm.
It is also increasingly common for material
with broadly identical specifications to trade
at different price levels depending on which
sector it is being sold into.
Further distortions in the chain are created
because reprocessed material such as flakes and
pellets can be stored for long-periods of time,
and flake and pellet producers are not forced
to offload material as quickly as waste
managers.
This leads to fragmented and localised
downstream markets where spreads against
feedstock costs and profitability are
constantly shifting.
Volatile feedstock costs also results in
challenges for investment. This is particularly
true for emerging technologies such as chemical
recycling and bio-based plastics.
Thatis because new producers seeking private
investment are often required to project future
costs (typically for a period of at least 5
years), with waste feedstock typically their
largest variable cost. The unpredictability of
waste values make this a herculean task.
When players first explore circular plastic
markets, they are often surprised by the
variability and fragmentation of prices through
the chain. In the majority of cases the direct
cause can be traced back to the feedstock waste
markets.
ICIS assesses more than 100 grades
throughout the recycled plastic value chain
globally – from waste bales through to pellets.
This includes recycled polyethylene (R-PE),
recycled PET (R-PET), R-PP, mixed plastic waste
and pyrolysis oil. On 1 October ICIS launched a
recycled polyolefins agglomerate price range as
part of the Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis
Oil (Europe) pricing service. For more
information on ICIS’ recycled plastic products,
please contact the ICIS recycling team at
recycling@icis.com
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Crude Oil11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The UK’s economy picked up
slightly in August following two months of zero
growth in June and July, official data showed
on Friday.
August GDP grew by 0.2%, driven by higher
output in services (0.1%), production (0.5%)
and construction (0.4%).
Real GDP also grew by 0.2% in the three months
to August compared with the three months to
May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
said.
Second-quarter GDP grew
by 0.5% in the UK, while growth in Q1 was
0.7%.
Ammonia10-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Roaring ashore as a Category 3
hurricane late 9 October and bringing fierce
winds, heavy rainfall and significant inland
storm surge Hurricane Milton inundated the
Tamp, Florida area, which is a key hub of the
US fertilizer industry.
In the aftermath of the storm there were market
sources, based in this region, who were
reporting being unharmed but that they were now
facing considerable flooding, which was causing
property damage in places and overall
restricting public movement.
The section of Florida pounded by Milton is the
location of not only production sites but also
storage and logistic operations as well as
corporate office facilities and the home to the
numerous employees of the local fertilizer
industry.
The Port of Tampa, which handles about 25% of
domestic fertilizer exports, said on their
website that recovery efforts have begun, and
that staff is working with the US Army Corps of
Engineers, US Coast Guard and other maritime
partners to assess landside and seaside
operations.
“Our port is currently without power. Some
damage was observed to buildings but there has
been no significant damage to docks, so far.
The port is accessible through main gates, but
please be advised there are road closures and
flooding concerns in the surrounding roadways
to our port,” the Port of Tampa announced.
“We are working with our fuel terminal
operators to assess their facilities and learn
when they will be able to return to service.
Individual port tenants will make independent
decisions on when to resume their operations.”
The extent of impacts to the fertilizer
industry were not yet clear but Canadia
fertilizer producer Nutrien, who only has the
White Springs phosphate facility within
Florida, said the company is still dealing with
the impacts of the last storm but was able to
avoid further issues from this hurricane.
“While Nutrien’s White Springs phosphate
facility was not impacted by Hurricane Milton,
we are continuing to assess the timeline for
White Springs’ restart following Hurricane
Helene. Nutrien’s nitrogen facilities
were not impacted by Hurricane Milton,” said a
Nutrien spokesperson.
Fertilizer titan Mosaic, who not only has their
headquarters within Tampa but also has numerous
assets for production and logistics, said their
immediate focus is on their workforce.
“As Hurricane Milton has now passed through
central Florida, we are working to contact our
employees and confirm their safety. When
conditions allow, we’ll begin assessing the
impacts on our operations,” said Mosaic.
There were concerns ahead of the storm over the
potential environmental consequences of Milton
as Florida has 25 stacks of slightly
radioactive phosphogypsum waste that are a
by-product of phosphate fertilizer production.
The fear that the winds and rains could release
the material across the land and water
resources that are nearby as has occurred in
past hurricane events.
There was no immediate report of the conditions
of the stacks as of late 10 October but ahead
of the storm Florida environmental officials
had said they were preparing and would have all
resources available to oversee the regulated
facilities and operations.
Sources said the areas that were more south of
Tampa were apparently struck harder but there
has not been full confirmation of the damages
inflicted with a source saying it is a
“different story down there”.
There were weather reports of over 18 inches of
rain having been received in nearby St
Petersburg, Florida.
The hurricane also generated several strong
tornadoes as it approached which are being
blamed for some of the physical damage to
structures.
A market participants said that with it being
less than 24 hours since landfall it was going
to take some time for the fertilizer industry
to assess the scale of the impacts from Milton,
saying it is “too soon for that”.
Federal and state officials have not yet
projected an estimated amount of damages as
assessments were just barely getting underway.
It likely did great harm to the Florida citrus
industry with orange groves bearing fruit and
drawing close to their harvest period.
It is feared that it will be determined in the
coming days that the storm’s intensity will
result in a substantial decline in production
this season, with others crops having also been
exposed to harm like sugarcane and
strawberries.
Speciality Chemicals10-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Backlogs created by the
three-day strike at US Gulf and East Coast
ports could last for two to three weeks,
although there are indications that operations
could return to normal sooner rather than later
at the Port of New York/New Jersey.
Judah Levine, head of research at online
freight shipping marketplace and platform
provider Freightos, said many industry analysts
were predicting two to three weeks to clear the
backlog of container ships created when the
International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)
went on strike.
Levine estimated there were 45-60 vessels at
anchor off US Gulf and East Coast ports from
the strike.
But he said officials at the Port of New
York/New Jersey, the largest on the East Coast,
said the work stoppage was more akin to short
weather-related closures they see with winter
storms and expect operations could return to
normal in a matter of days, and maybe even by
the end of the week.
Levine said the larger impact could be from a
build in containers at the ports.
Some ports extended gate times to allow
customers extra time to collect or deliver
containers.
“In the meantime, shippers with containers at
the ports or on vessels at anchor or vessels
arriving quite soon will probably continue to
experience some delays, and for some that could
impact inventory availability in the next
couple weeks,” Levine said.
The strike did not impact the movement of
liquid chemical tankers as most terminals that
handle those vessels are privately owned and do
not necessarily use union labor.
Also, tankers do not require as much labor as
container or dry cargo vessels, which must be
loaded and unloaded with cranes and require
labor for forklifts and trucks.
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
IMPACT OF STRIKE, HURRICANES ON
TRUCKING
Market participants are also watching for tight
supply or shortages of inland trucking services
because of the work stoppage and because of two
hurricanes in succession that hit Florida and
other southeastern states.
Downstream chemical buyers and compounders
could begin to see issues with road freight in
terms of higher costs and lower availability.
Rates could see upward pressure given the
severity of the damage to roads and highways in
the East Tennessee and North Carolina regions
as the US Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA) works to assist in the recovery.
FEMA also gets precedence on trucking to be
able to move goods or equipment needed for the
recovery efforts.
UPDATE ON ILA/USMX
NEGOTIATIONS
While the work stoppage ended after three days,
the terminology was that it was suspended until
15 January, with only the salary part of a
future deal agreed to by both parties.
Levine said the union remains steadfast in its
opposition to any kind of automation at the
ports – full or semi – that would replace jobs
or historical work functions.
Levine said the union has continued to state
its case against automation even as they
returned to work.
Levine said shippers will keep 15 January in
mind as there is a chance another work stoppage
could occur if no definitive agreement is
reached by then.
Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on
chemicals and energy topic
page
Speciality Chemicals10-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nearly 3.4 million outages have
been reported in Florida in the aftermath of
Hurricane Milton, which made landfall as a
powerful Category 3 hurricane near Sarasota,
Florida, south of the important fertilizer hub
of Tampa.
Milton may have caused more damage had it
passed over Tampa, according to CoreLogic, an
insurance data company.
RAIL UPDATERailroad
company CSX said it has relocated all of its
locomotives and cars from low-lying areas in
Tampa and rerouted them.
CSX operations will continue in and out of
Waycross from the north, east and west
directions. It will continue operating into and
out of the intermodal ramps at Jacksonville,
Florida.
On 8 October, CSX said it had taken the
following steps.
Closed the Central Florida ILC intermodal
gate.
Closed the Tampa, FL intermodal gate.
Closed the TRANSFLO terminals at Tampa,
Tampa Port and Sanford.
Another railroad company, Norfolk Southern, has
not updated its notice from 7 October, when it
said it was monitoring and preparing for
Hurricane Milton.
FLORIDA PORTS REMAIN
CLOSEDMany ports in Florida have
maintained their Zulu port conditions, which
means they are closed to inbound and outbound
vessels.
The following table summarizes the conditions
among the major ports in Florida.
Port
Status
Condition
Port of Pensacola
Open
Normal
Port Panama City
Open
Draft restrictions
Port St Joe
Open
Normal
Port Tampa Bay
Closed
Zulu
SeaPort Manatee
Closed
Zulu
PortMiami
Open
Yankee
Port Everglades
Open
Yankee
Port of Palm Beach
Closed
Zulu
Fort Pierce
Closed
Zulu
Port Canaveral
Closed
Zulu
Jaxport
Closed
Zulu
Port of Fernandina
Closed
Zulu
Source: US Coast Guard.
IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES,
CHEMSFor chemicals, there is
some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and
unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) production in
Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida.
Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola,
Florida, which has plants that make nylon and
thermoset resins.
Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer
industry, hosting corporate offices, trading,
product storage, shipping and other logistical
operations.
Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters
in Tampa. The company has not issued any
statements regarding its corporate operations.
A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it
was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply
with the evacuation orders.
Near Tampa is Florida’s
phosphate mining operations in Bone
Valley, which covers parts of Hardee,
Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties.
In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of
which nine are active, according
to the
Florida Department of Environmental
Protection.
Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to
restart its White Springs phosphate operations
following Helene, an earlier hurricane that
made landfall farther north in Florida’s Big
Bend region.
On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview
operations were off line following water
intrusion from a storm surge caused by
Hurricane Helene.
POSSIBLE DAMAGEHurricane
Milton could be extremely destructive because
of its winds, rainfall and storm surge.
It will pass over the following metropolitan
statistical areas.
Region
Population
Tampa
3,342,963
Orlando
2,817,933
Jacksonville
1,713,240
Sarasota
910,108
Source: US Census Bureau
CoreLogic, the insurance data company, said
Milton’s shift to the south of Tampa could
limit the magnitude of insured losses.
CHEMS AND
RECONSTRUCTIONFor hurricanes in
general, reconstruction can translate into
increased demand for many chemicals and
polymers.
The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is
used in paints.
Solvents used in paints and coatings include
butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate
(butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers,
methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol
(IPA).
Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are
also used to make paints and coatings.
For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and
polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation.
PUs are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate
(MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols.
High-density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in
pipes. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make
cladding, window frames, wires and cables,
flooring and roofing membranes.
Unsaturated polyester resins (UPRs) are used to
make coatings and composites.
Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make
paints and adhesives.
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate10-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Glycolysis-based chemical
recycling technology company Ioniqa has
filed
for bankruptcy protection, the company
announced in press release on Thursday.
The company is headquartered in the
Netherlands. It is concentrated on chemically
recycling polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET).
In the press release, the company stated that
it has determined that “achieving a positive
cash flow from its advanced polyester recycling
technology will take too long.” Advanced
recycling is a term that is often used as an
alternative description for chemical recycling
(although mechanical recyclers also use the
term advanced recycling to refer to some
mechanical recycling processes).
It attributed this to the comparatively low
price of traditional virgin PET and the supply
chain for chemically recycled PET still being
in development. It also attributed some of the
blame to “the implementation of regulated
mandatory standards for meaningful recycling
levels… [being] too far out into the future.”
It stated that this meant that
large-scale deployment of its technology was
not economically feasible at this time.
Ioniqa has a glycolysis-based chemical
recycling demonstration plant in Geleen, The
Netherlands, which has been operational since
2019 and has an estimated output of 8,000
tonnes/year according the ICIS Recycling Supply
Tracker – Chemical. Investors in the site
include The Coca Cola Company, Unilever,
Indorama Ventures, Koch Technology Solutions,
and Infinity Recycling’s Circular Plastics
Fund.
Chemical recycling is an umbrella term for a
variety of methods that use different
production routes and feedstocks to create new
material from waste. This means that each
process (and each technology and individual
player) has vastly different cost-structures
and the economics of each chemical recycling
method vary substantially. Coupled with
this, achievable prices for chemically recycled
products vary significantly between grade and
polymer type.
Common chemical recycling methods include
pyrolysis, gasification, glycolysis,
hydrolysis, methanolysis, and enzymatic
hydrolysis.
In chemical recycling, chemical processes are
used to revert waste back to an earlier
molecular state. Waste can be reverted back to
monomer, building block chemicals, or all the
way back to crude oil/energy. Chemical
recycling alters the fundamental chemical
properties of the material.
In glycolysis, a transesterification catalyst
is used to break the ester linkages, which are
replaced by hydroxyl terminals. This produces
bisterephthalate (BHET) and PET glycozates.
These can be reacted with aliphatic diacids to
make: polyester polyols, which are in turn used
in polyurethane (PU) foams; co-polyesters;
unsaturated resins; and hydrophobic dyes. If
combined with virgin BHET, the process produces
chemically recycled PET via dimethyl
terephthalate (DMT) or purified terephthalic
acid (PTA) glycolysis. Typical catalysts
include monoethylene glycol (MEG), diethylene
glycol (DEG), propylene glycol (PG) or
dipropylene glycol (DPG).
Transesterification does not work on polymers
such as polyolefins due to a lack of cutting
points. As a result, glycolysis is
predominantly focussed on PET, and this means
that it typically uses sorted and separated
monomaterial as a feedstock, which can add
additional cost.
The most common form of chemical recycling in
Europe is pyrolysis-based. This is in large
part being driven by demand from ambitious
brand sustainability targets in the packaging
sector. Many fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG)
brands see chemical recycling as the only
viable way to reach large scale food-grade
packaging suitable recycled polyolefins given
current EFSA requirements that 95% of input
waste must be former food-contact to gain
food-contact approval. Most PET input waste is
sourced from used plastic drinks bottles,
making it easier for R-PET producers to meet
this 95% requirement than other polymers, and
there is a well established R-PET food-grade
pellet sector – using traditional recycling
methods – across Europe. R-PET is also the only
mechanical recycling technology recognised as
suitable for producing food-contact material
under European Commission regulation (EU)
2022/1616 on ‘recycled plastic materials and
articles intended to come into contact with
foods’.
Pyrolysis-based chemical recycling uses heat
and pressure – typically in the absence of
oxygen, although it is sometimes present in
controlled volumes – to transform waste
feedstocks (most commonly plastic waste or
end-of-life tyres) into an earlier molecular
state.
Pyrolysis-based plants targeting mixed plastic
waste as feedstock – with a focus on
polyolefins – currently account for more than
60% of all operating chemical recycling
capacity in Europe according to ICIS Recycling
Supply Tracker – Chemical. PET, however, does
not pyrolyse.
Highlighting just how variable achievable
prices for chemically recycled materials can
be, pyrolysis oil prices in Europe are
currently regularly trading on the spot market
anywhere from €800-2,200/tonne ex-works Europe
depending on grade.
ICIS assesses more than 100 grades
throughout the recycled plastic value chain
globally – from waste bales through to pellets.
This includes recycled polyethylene (R-PE),
recycled PET (R-PET), R-PP, mixed plastic waste
and pyrolysis oil. On 1 October ICIS launched a
recycled polyolefins agglomerate price range as
part of the Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis
Oil (Europe) pricing service. For more
information on ICIS’ recycled plastic products,
please contact the ICIS recycling team at
recycling@icis.com
Speciality Chemicals10-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warmer waters in the Atlantic
Basin could make record-setting hurricanes like
Milton and Beryl more common, which
strengthened rapidly to become major storms
that caused significant damage.
Most of the petrochemical and refining
capacity of the US is along the Gulf of Mexico,
making the plants vulnerable to the disruptions
caused by more powerful hurricanes that could
become more common in the future.
Rising exports of energy, chemical
feedstock and plastics from the US Gulf Coast
have caused local hurricanes to have global
consequences.
If wind shear becomes more common, then it
could offset some of the strengthening effects
that warmer water will have on hurricane
development.
RECORD-SETTING HURRICANE
SEASONWarm water is like rocket
fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, and
that led to the rapid intensification of
Milton, which strengthened from a tropical
storm into a Category 5 hurricane in less than
two days.
By midday on Monday, the rapid strengthening of
Milton placed it among the top three Atlantic
hurricanes, behind only 2005’s Hurricane Wilma
and 2007’s Hurricane Felix, said Alex DaSilva,
lead hurricane expert at the meteorology
company AccuWeather.
Milton had set another record as the strongest
hurricane to occur in the Gulf of Mexico,
according to Levi Silvers, research scientist
at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at
Colorado State University, which publishes
regular hurricane forecasts.
Milton was also the Gulf’s strongest hurricane
since Rita in 2005, Silvers said.
Milton would weaken to a Category 3 hurricane
before making landfall on Wednesday night.
AccuWeather estimates that Milton could cause
more than $200 billion in damage and economic
loss.
Earlier on July 2, Beryl set its own record
by becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane
to form in the Atlantic basin, beating the
previous record holder by an astounding two
weeks, DaSilva said.
According to Silvers, Beryl also accumulated
more cyclone energy than any other storm
occurring before August. “Basically, it was the
strongest early storm we have had by several
measures.”
After forming in the Atlantic Beryl weakened
after passing over Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula
before making landfall in Texas and disrupting
operations at several petrochemical plants.
AccuWeather estimated that
total damage and economic loss caused
by Beryl was $28 billion to $32 billion.
Hurricane Helene set a record for the amount of
available atmospheric moisture, also known as
precipitable rain, according to AccuWeather.
Such extreme amounts of moisture allowed Helene
to carry it far inland, leading to rapidly
rising river levels and flash flooding.
AccuWeather estimates that Helene caused $225
billion to $250 billion in damage and
economic loss in Florida, Georgia and the
Carolinas.
WARM WATER THREATSIf the
planet continues to warm, one of the
consequences would be elevated water
temperatures.
Warmer waters contributed to the strength and
rapid intensification of these three
hurricanes, DaSilva said.
The danger is not just the surface temperature
of the Atlantic but also something that
meteorologists call ocean heat content, DaSilva
said. Ocean heat content reflects water
temperatures below the surface.
A warmer planet will also heat up the
atmosphere, allowing the air to hold more
moisture. That would lead to more rainfall and
greater risks of floods.
“I am concerned that we are going to be seeing
more episodes of rapid intensification,”
DaSilva said. “The tie between sea surface
temperatures and rapid intensification – we are
pretty confident about that.”
Silvers also expressed concern about the threat
posed by elevated water temperatures.
WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNKNOWN
VARIABLEMeteorologists are less
sure if wind shear could become more common in
a warmer planet, DaSilva said. Wind shear
usually discourages the formation of tropical
weather.
If wind shear does become more common, it could
partially offset the effects of warmer water.
In a world with more wind shear, it might not
generate more hurricanes, but those that do
form will strengthen rapidly into more powerful
storms, DaSilva said.
The length of the Atlantic hurricane season
could also expand by starting sooner than the
current June 1 date, DaSilva said.
DaSilva doubts that the Atlantic season would
last beyond its November 30 end date, because
wind shear becomes more common during the final
months of the year.
Silvers, though, said it is difficult to
determine if the timing of Atlantic storms will
change in the future.
“This season is a perfect example, with record
breaking storms before and after the peak of
the season, but almost nothing during the
historical peak,” Silvers said.
MORE DISRUPTIONS FOR US, GLOBAL
CHEMICALSMost of the
petrochemical plants and refineries in the US
are on the Gulf Coast, so more powerful
hurricanes would leave them more vulnerable to
damage and shutdowns.
The US now exports significant amounts of
polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC),
vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and other
chemicals.
Hurricanes disrupt port operations, so those
exports could be delayed, increasing the risk
of global shortages.
DISRUPTIONS TO WORLD’S CHEMICAL
FEEDSTOCKSIn addition, the US is
increasingly relying on exports to take away
excess ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
produced from its oil fields.
These petrochemical feedstocks are being
imported by an increasing number of crackers
and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, with
GAIL (India) became the latest to announce
plans to build an ethane cracker.
Nearly all of the terminals that handle these
exports of ethane and LPG are on the Gulf
Coast, and all of the expansion projects are in
the region.
Hurricanes could disrupt operations at these
terminals and interrupt the supply of these
feedstocks to crackers and PDH units throughout
the world.
HURRICANES DISRUPT US LNG
TERMINALSThe majority of US LNG
capacity is on the Gulf Coast and its
preponderance will only increase as the country
starts up more terminals.
This will have effects on US and global energy
prices.
Disruptions in global shipments could raise LNG
costs.
In the US, extended shutdowns of LNG terminals
would increase supplies of natural gas, pushing
prices lower for it and ethane.
Lower ethane prices in the US could increase
margins for ethylene derivatives.
DISRUPTIONS TO US OIL
EXPORTSThe Gulf Coast is a large
exporter of oil, with major terminals in Corpus
Christi, Houston and Nederland in Texas.
In addition, the Gulf Coast is home to the
Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the only
deepwater crude port in the US.
Companies are planning more offshore ports.
Enterprise Products received a deepwater
port license for its Sea Port Oil Terminal
(SPOT), which could load 2 million bbl/day of
crude oil. If built, it would be built 30
nautical miles off the Texas coast.
In 2020, Phillips 66 and Trafigura Group
announced that
they created a 50/50 joint venture called
Bluewater Texas Terminal to develop an offshore
deepwater oil port 21 nautical miles east of
the port of Corpus Christi.
Energy Transfer is proposing its Blue
Marlin Offshore Port, which could load up to
one very large crude carrier (VLCC) per day.
Texas GulfLink, a subsidiary of Sentinal
Midstream,
is developing a deepwater oil terminal off
the Gulf Coast.
If built, these offshore oil ports would be
vulnerable to hurricanes, along with the
onshore terminals on the Gulf Coast.
That could restrict global oil supplies and
push prices higher. Higher prices would
increase costs for crackers that use naphtha as
a feedstock.
Insight article by Al
Greenwood
Thumbnail shows damage caused by Hurricane
Milton. Image by Chris Urso/Tampa Bay
Times/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
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