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Ethylene08-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia ethylene editor Josh
Quah and analyst Aliena Huang talk about the
Asia outlook for ethylene arbitrage cargoes for
2025 with markets editor Damini Dabholkar.
Ethylene loadings from US in December
continue to favor southeast Asia destinations
More intra-Asia tradeflows between
northeast and southeast Asia expected for H1
2025
Increasing ethane competitivity and demand
may curtail US ethylene exports to Asia
Polyethylene Terephthalate08-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia has imposed
provisional antidumping duties (ADDs) on
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from
China and Indonesia,
effective 7 January.
The duties range from 6.33% to 37.44% “to
prevent further injury to the domestic
industry”, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment,
Trade and Industry (MITI) said.
Chinese exporters affected include Jiangsu
Hailun Petrochemical, Far Eastern Industries
(Shanghai), and Jiangsu Xingye Plastic, with
duties set at between 6.33% to 11.74%.
All PET imports from Indonesia, meanwhile, will
be levied a higher ADD rate of 37.44%.
Country
Exporter
Rates
China
Far Eastern Industries (Shanghai)
6.33%
Jiangsu Hailun Petrochemical Co
11.74%
Jiangsu Xingye Plastic Co
11.74%
Jiangyin Xingtai New Material Co
11.74%
Others
11.74%
Indonesia
All producers or exporters
37.44%
The duties are not likely to drastically affect
China’s PET exports as Malaysia is not their
major market, an industry source said.
These duties will last “not more than 120 days”
or four months, and a final determination will
be made no later than 6 May, the MITI added.
Malaysia’s investigations into PET imports
from China and Indonesia were initiated on 9
August 2024.
Additional reporting by Judith Wang
Thumbnail image: PET goes into textitles.
At a textile enterprise in Binzhou, China, on
24 September 2024.
(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Polyethylene Terephthalate08-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia has imposed
provisional antidumping duties (ADDs) on
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from
China and Indonesia, effective 7 January 2025.
The duties range from 6.33% to 37.44% “to
prevent further injury to the domestic
industry”, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment,
Trade and Industry (MITI) said.
These duties will last “not more than 120 days”
or four months, and a final determination will
be made no later than 6 May, the MITI added.
Investigations into PET imports from China and
Indonesia were initiated on 9 August 2024.
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.
Speciality Chemicals07-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–RPM International warned on
Tuesday that the winter weather will drag down
its earnings during the current quarter, the
CEO of the US-based coatings, sealants and
adhesives producer said on Tuesday.
A lot of RPM’s products are used in
construction, so cold weather delays these
projects. Moreover, the company serves as a
bellwether for chemicals used to make coatings,
adhesives, sealants and other building
materials.
The recent cold spell marks the return to
normal winter weather after two previous
seasons of above normal temperatures, said
Frank Sullivan, CEO. He made his comments
during an earnings conference call.
“We are facing a real winter compared to mild
conditions in the prior year,” he said. “This
is putting pressure on some of our businesses,
particularly in the consumer segment.”
The return of winter interrupted the return to
volume growth for RPM’s segments, Sullivan
said. When temperatures rise in the spring, he
expects strong growth will return to those
segments.
RPM MAINTAINS SALES GUIDANCE FOR FISCAL
YEARDespite the delays caused by
colder temperatures, RPM maintained its sales
guidance for its fiscal year, which runs
through July.
Sales should rise by the low single digits.
Adjusted earnings before interest and tax
(EBIT) should rise 6-10%. That compares with an
earlier guidance of growth in the mid-single
digits to the low double digits.
RPM shares were up by more than 2% in midday
trading.
COLD WEATHER MAY DELAY OTHER BUILDING
MATERIALSCold weather could
delay purchases for other building materials
such as paints, coatings, adhesives and
sealants as well as pipes and siding made of
polyvinyl chloride (PVC).
Paints and coatings are important end markets
for many petrochemicals and resins.
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used as a white
pigment and to make paints opaque.
Solvents used in paints and coatings include
ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and
methyl ethyl ketone (MEK).
Polyurethane coatings are made with polyols and
isocyanates such as methyl diphenyl
diisocyanate (MDI). Acrylic based coatings are
made with methyl methacrylate (MMA), and epoxy
coatings are made with epoxy resins.
Other chemicals used in paints and coatings
include isopropanol (IPA) and vinyl acetate
monomer (VAM).
NO CHEM DISRUPTIONS ON US
GULFSo far, there have been no
reports of cold weather causing disruptions to
chemical plants.
Temperatures in Houston had briefly fell to
freezing during the night, but the region has
yet to suffer from prolonged low temperatures
that have typically led to plant shutdowns or
power outages.
Also, many producers made their plants more
resilient to cold weather following winter
storm Uri in 2021.
EARLIER FORECASTS CALLED FOR WARM
WINTER PUNCTUATED WITH COLD
SPELLSMeteorologists
had forecast that the upcoming winter
season will be warmer than normal, with spells
of especially frigid weather.
Such forecasts held true in the US Gulf Coast
during the past two winter seasons. Each winter
had a brief spell of freezing temperatures that
caused some chemical plants to shut down.
Focus article by Al Greenwood
Thumbnail shows construction. Image by
Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Gas07-Jan-2025
Additional reporting by Aura Sabadus
LONDON (ICIS) — On 1 January 2025, Russian gas
transit flows via Ukraine stopped amid the
expiry of a five-year agreement between the two
countries which have been in conflict since
February 2022.
The transit stop has been the base case view of
the majority of market participants and it was
priced in well before 1 January 2025.
Therefore it had little impact on European gas
and
power prices in recent sessions.
Despite the expectation that flows would cease
to transit Ukraine, the end of the agreement
resulted in an immediate supply drop to the
Czech Republic and Austria.
However, the scrapping of the German storage
levy from 1 January 2025 incentivized flows
from Germany to the region, partly offsetting
the supply drop via Ukraine.
The below infographic shows the shift in flows
to the region after the transit halt on 1
January, drawing a comparison between flows on
31 December 2024 and on 3 January 2025 across
the key interconnection points.
In particular, the halt to the Russian gas
transit through Ukraine halted flows to
Slovakia and Moldova, and therefore from
Slovakia to the rest of the region.
Conversely, German gas exports to Czech
Republic and to Austria increased to offset the
drop in Russian gas flows reaching the region
via Ukraine.
Romanian exports also increased to support
Moldova’s gas supply, as flows from Ukraine
ceased.
Nevertheless, ICIS data also indicates that
since 2022 a strong LNG supply intake has
rapidly replaced the drop in Russian gas flows
to Europe, with flows via Sudzha remaining
among the latest available Russian volumes via
pipeline reaching Europe until 31 December
2024.
Currently the only remaining source of Russian
gas supply via pipeline is the TurkStream2 gas
corridor, transiting via Turkey and delivering
gas to Europe through the Bulgarian and Serbian
infrastructure up to Hungary.
Europe still receives Russian gas in the form
of LNG supplies.
ICIS ANALYSTS VIEWS
“We expect gas storage withdrawals to be strong
in the first quarter of 2025 and we will have a
close look at them. ICIS Gas Foresight expects
Austrian storage to deplete from current 80%
levels towards 63% in April 2025 in the new
base case absent Ukrainian gas transit” ICIS
gas analyst Andreas Schroeder said.
ICIS data showed that EU gas storages were 66%
full as of 6 January.
“LNG imports to Europe should increase again
after a relatively weak 2024. Austrian OMV has
secured capacity at LNG terminals to provide
Austria with gas via Germany” Schroeder added.
Security of supply in Europe is guaranteed and
ICIS Gas Foresight estimates that LNG imports
into the eleven EU countries considered in the
model (Austria, Belgium, Czechia, France,
Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland,
Slovakia and Spain) plus Great Britain will
increase year on year by 232TWh (15 million
tonnes of LNG or 21bcm) in 2025. In January,
LNG imports are set to increase 7% year on
year.
ICIS Gas Foresight forecasts the fullness level
for the EU11+GB region to fall by 12 percentage
points month-on-month by the end of January.
On European power markets, increases in the gas
price will likely be reflected in increased
power prices, particularly in those countries
where gas-fired generation is still a large
component of the power supply mix.
“For the February ‘25 contract across pretty
much all European power markets we saw prices
higher on 21 November 2024 than they were on 2
January 2025. The primary reason for this is
that coal prices have fallen since that point”
ICIS power analyst Matthew Jones said.
“Electricity flows from Slovakia to Ukraine
continued on 2 January, which is relevant as
Slovakia’s PM Fico had threated to stop flowing
power to Ukraine in the event of no new gas
deal. Slovakia tends to export to Ukraine, so
stopping those flows would have been bearish
for Slovakian power prices” Jones added.
Acrylic acid07-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Mitsubishi Chemical Corp (MCC)
said on Tuesday it has decided not to proceed
with its planned 350,000 tonne/year methyl
methacrylate (MMA) project at Geismar,
Louisiana.
The company failed in negotiations with
customers “to obtain long-term commitments on
transactions,” it said.
MCC expects to be able to meet immediate demand
with existing MMA monomer manufacturing
facilities in Tennessee and elsewhere, it said.
“Global demand for MMA monomer exceeds three
million tonnes annually, and stable market
growth is expected to continue,” it added.
The Geismar project, announced in December
2020, would have used ethylene derived from US
shale gas.
MCC had acquired a construction site at Geismar
and was working on the project’s engineering
design and on obtaining permits and approvals.
The company expects to record a loss of about
Japanese yen (Y) 20 billion (US$127 million) in
connection with the decision not to proceed
with the project, it said.
Meanwhile, MCC would continue to optimize its
global production system by establishing new
business locations and consolidating existing
ones to boost the competitiveness of its MMA
business, it said.
(US$1=Y158)
MMA is used in the manufacture of
polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), acrylic sheets,
surface coatings, emulsion polymers and
adhesives. Photo by Rudi
Sebastian/imageBROKER/REX/Shutterstock
Ethylene07-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on Asian
Chemical Connections by John Richardson.
One of the arguments still doing the rounds out
there is that this year will mark the turning
point as global petrochemicals operating rates,
margins and spreads recover.
As they say, good luck with that idea. As
today’s blog discusses in detail:
In 2024 over 2023, China’s ethylene
capacity exceeding local demand is estimated to
have fallen by 1.6m tonnes. But in 2025
compared with 2024, it is forecast to increase
by 6.3m tonnes to an all-time high of 11.5m
tonnes. This would represent a year-on-year
increase of 121%. Actual capacity is due to
increase by 9m tonnes in 2025 over 2024, the
biggest annual increase on record.
Propylene oversupply is far worse
reflecting the several routes to make propylene
other than just the steam cracker – the only
major route to produce ethylene. In 2024 over
2023, propylene capacity exceeding demand was
at 2.7m tonnes. This year compared with 2024
oversupply is expected to reach 7.4m tonnes.
Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to total
20.3m tonnes in 2025, 179% higher than in 2024.
Annual capacity is due to increase by 9.6m
tonnes in 2025 or 2024, which would again by
the biggest annual increase on record.
China’s global shares of capacity exceeding
demand are also forecast to jump in 2025 as it
overtakes all the other regions.
One saving grace might be that increased trade
protectionism prevents China from exporting its
surplus ethylene and propylene molecules,
either directly as derivatives or indirectly as
packaging for or components of finished goods.
This might create more regional markets and
force China to delay start-ups.
But it seems more likely to me that there will
just be a shuffling of the pack as more Chinese
manufacturing moves offshore to bypass tariffs.
You might think that the other “get out of jail
for free” card will be a rebound in Chinese
domestic demand.
Again, good luck with that idea because of the
end of the real estate bubble and China’s
demographics crisis.
So, here is another prediction for 2025: Global
petrochemicals operating rates, spreads and
margins will decline versus last year because
for the scale of China’s capacity additions and
the country’s continued ability to export its
excess molecules, either directly or
indirectly.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Gas06-Jan-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–On 1 January 2025, Russia
stopped gas supplies to Transnistria after
failing to make alternative arrangements to
deliver gas to the province on the left bank of
the river Nistru.
Although Moldova, on the right bank, has
diversified its gas portfolio away from Russian
imports, it still depends on electricity
produced in Transnistria using gas from Russia,
resulting in a shift to the supply-demand
balance of the area, while risking further
power and gas shortages across the region.
ICIS energy market expert Aura Sabadus speaks
with Sergiu Lica and Eugeniu Bot, heads of
natural gas and electricity departments
respectively at the Moldovan state wholesaler
Energocom, to discuss the options that are
available to stave off tightness in supply over
winter and beyond.
Ethylene06-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 3 January.
OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM
exports expected stronger, domestic demand
could rise
US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer
(VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving
after production outages resolved, while
tight global supply is expected to boost
export demand and lower inflation may lead to
stronger domestic demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected
higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1
supply
Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and
ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025
on restocking and if lower inflation drives
consumption, but this may be met with tight
supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance.
OUTLOOK ’25: US President Trump could
move quickly on tariffs,
deregulation
As US president, Donald Trump could quickly
proceed on campaign promises to impose
tariffs and cut regulations after taking
office on 20 January.
SHIPPING: Union dockworkers, ports to
resume negotiations ahead of 15 Jan
deadline
Union dockworkers and representatives for US
Gulf and East Coast ports are expected to
resume negotiations on a new master contract
on 7 January, just more than a week ahead of
the 15 January deadline.
OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply
expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up
mid-year
US methanol supply is tight heading into the
new year, a situation that has been offset by
lackluster demand, but demand is expected to
pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates fuel
consumer spending and the housing market.
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