SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean S-Oil’s thermal crude-to-chemical project in Ulsan is now 77.7% complete and is on track for mechanical completion in H1 2026, even as the company’s Q2 net loss widened. As of 16 July, major towers of the project called “Shaheen” – Arabic for “falcon” – had been installed, with installation of cracking heater in progress, the South Korean refiner said on 25 July. Installations of the thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) reactor and key units, as well as linear low density polyethylene and high-density polyethylene (LLDPE/HDPE) reactors & extruders were all completed, it added. S-Oil is 63%-owned by Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil. The company’s Q2 net loss widened to South Korean won (W) 66.8 billion ($48 million) as its petrochemical business swung into an operating loss of W34.6 billion from a profit of W109.9 billion in the same period last year. in billion won (W) Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Yr-on-Yr % change H1 2025 H1 2024  Yr-on-Yr % change Revenue 8,048.5 9,570.8 -15.9 17,039.0 18,879.3  -9.7 Operating income -344.0 160.6 – -365.5 614.8 – Net income -66.8 -21.3 – -111.3 144.9 – Refining operating profit -441.1 -95.0 – -497.9 155.4 – Petrochemical operating profit -34.6 109.9 – -109.2 157.9 – Lube operating profit 131.8 145.8 -9.6 241.5 301.4 -19.9 Compared with Q1, Q2 paraxylene (PX) market rebounded on fresh demand from a new purified terephthalic acid (PTA) facility in China and benzene  market weakened due to reduce US imports following the imposition of tariffs. Polypropylene (PP) and propylene oxide (PO) markets recovered amid tighter supply from regional maintenance and easing tension between the US and China. For Q3, the company expects PX to be firm due to plant turnarounds and start-ups of new downstream PTA facilities, with the benzene market likely to be resilient, as demand from new downstream facilities offsets decreased US imports. PP and PO markets may remain supported as tariff uncertainties fade, despite ongoing capacity additions in China, the company predicts. ($1 = W1,380)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 25 July. INSIGHT: Japan ruling coalition loss undermines PM Ishiba negotiating power with US By Jonathan Yee 21-Jul-25 14:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s ruling coalition failed to secure a majority in the upper house election on 20 July, with dwindling political support at home coming at a crucial time when Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is in the process of negotiating a trade deal with the US. Malaysia clamps down on plastic waste imports for recycling By Arianne Perez 21-Jul-25 15:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia has announced more stringent requirements in the import of plastic waste from some countries while fully banning imports from others. US sets lower 15% tariffs for Japan after trade deal By Jonathan Yee 23-Jul-25 10:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US President Donald Trump announced in a social media post on 22 July a “massive” deal with Japan, setting US tariffs at 15% on Japanese goods. India extends deadline for final findings in PVC anti-dumping probe to 25 September By Aswin Kondapally 23-Jul-25 15:48 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has been granted an extension until 25 September 2025 to issue the final findings in its ongoing anti-dumping investigation into imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) suspension resins from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. INSIGHT: China to retire old petrochemical units to reshape industry By Fanny Zhang 24-Jul-25 13:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is planning to carry out a comprehensive assessment of petrochemical plants that have been in operation for more than 20 years – a move that would ease overcapacity and accelerate industry consolidation. Asia SBR/PBR import offers lifted by buoyancy in domestic China By Ai Teng Lim 24-Jul-25 14:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Regional sellers of synthetic rubbers, from styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) to polybutadiene rubber (PBR), are seeking to leverage on a recent spike in domestic yuan-denominated prices for these two synthetic rubber grades and chase higher selling targets for their export cargoes. Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts demand to stay firm on restocking, PKO spike By Helen Yan 25-Jul-25 12:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols mid-cuts C12-14 demand is expected to stay firm in the near term due to restocking, with elevated feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) costs providing strong support. Thailand June exports rise 15.5%; US shipments surge ahead of tariff deadline By Jonathan Yee 25-Jul-25 15:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in June grew by 15.5% year on year to $28.6 billion on front-loading of shipments ahead of the US’ 36% tariffs, which will take effect on 1 August.

LONDON (ICIS)–On 24 July 2025, the European Commission sent letters of formal notice to 26 member states for failing to transpose key provisions of the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) by the 21 May 2025 deadline. Only Denmark is considered to have fully transposed these provisions so did not receive a letter. The formal notices cover all RED III measures that were due in May 2025, including the renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) targets for industry under Articles 22a and 22b, and for road and maritime transport under Article 25. They also address guarantees of origin, system integration requirements, and sustainability safeguards. Under EU infringement rules, the 26 EU countries will now have two months to submit full transposition measures. If the commission deems the replies unsatisfactory, reasoned opinions will be issued. Further non-compliance could lead to the cases being referred to the European Court of Justice, where financial penalties may be imposed. Article 22a requires member states to set binding national targets for RFNBOs in industry, specifying the share of renewable hydrogen, synthetic fuels and other carbon-neutral carriers each sector must achieve by 2030 Article 22b establishes common sustainability and greenhouse gas emission criteria, requiring certification schemes that enforce feedstock traceability, lifecycle emissions calculations and independent verification Article 25 obliges Member States to ensure a minimum share of renewable and low-carbon fuels in road transport and maritime shipping, with sub-quotas for advanced biofuels, renewable hydrogen and synthetic e-fuels This development follows the commission’s decision to issue reasoned opinions to Ireland, Latvia, and Portugal for failing to transpose Article 15a of RED III, one year after the 1 July 2024 deadline. Article 15a requires each member state to set clear time limits for processing renewable energy permits, to establish designated areas where permitting rules apply, and to create single points of contact for developers. It also calls for user-friendly digital tools and transparent online procedures to streamline permitting procedures.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eni’s chemical business reported a narrower proforma adjusted loss of €184 million in the second quarter of 2025, mainly attributed to reduced oil-based feedstock expenses, although the chemical sector remains weak, the Italy-headquartered producer said on Friday. This compared with a loss of €222 million during the same period last year. Chemicals € million Q2 2025 Q2 2024 H1 2025 H1 2024 Proforma adjusted EBIT – 184 – 222 -427 -390 Eni’s chemicals business is managed by Versalis. Sales of chemical products decreased 5% year on year in the second quarter amid lower demand and plant shutdown. In the first six months of the year, chemical product sales fell 6% year on year. Plant utilization rates averaged 47% in the second quarter, an increase of two percentage points from the same period last year. Margins remained weak across the board as commodity prices were unable to offset feedstock and energy input expenses amid “European headwinds, sluggish economic activity and competitive pressures from players with better cost structures”, the company said.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Trade tensions between China and major global economies are shaping the future of the world’s second-largest economy. What’s next for China’s GDP, unemployment, inflation, and of course petrochemicals? I’ve outlined three “back-of-the-envelope” scenarios to help kickstart your strategic planning, focusing on trends and magnitudes rather than specific numbers. Best Case: Comprehensive De-escalation & Broad Agreements Outlook: A diplomatic breakthrough leading to robust GDP growth, easing youth unemployment, and an inflationary recovery. Exports rebound strongly. Petrochemicals: Increased trade stability, potential for margin rebound, though China’s demand growth recalibrates to a lower, more sustainable pace post-property bubble. Medium Case: Protracted Stalemate & Selective De-escalation Outlook: A “muddle through” period with moderate GDP slowdown, persistently elevated youth unemployment, and ongoing deflationary pressures. Export growth remains sluggish. Petrochemicals: Continued trade route shifts, no major margin recovery from trade alone, and an accelerated push for China’s self-sufficiency. Worst Case: Full-Blown Trade War & Deep Decoupling Outlook: Sharp GDP contraction, a severe unemployment crisis (especially for youth), and entrenched deflation. Exports collapse, leading to aggressive state stimulus. Petrochemicals: Severe disruption, near-cessation of key trade flows (eg, US LPG/ethane), further margin deterioration, and an urgent drive for national security-prioritized self-sufficiency in China. Even in the best case, remember China faces structural headwinds from the property market and an ageing population, which will temper growth. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in June grew by 15.5% year on year to $28.6 billion on front-loading of shipments ahead of the US’ 36% tariffs, which will take effect on 1 August. June exports to US surge by 42% year on year Military conflict with Cambodia; domestic political instability dog government 2025 GDP growth projected to slow to 2.3% from 2.5% in 2024 Although June was the 12th straight month of export growth for the southeast Asian nation, the pace of expansion eased from 18.4% in May. Total shipments to the US – Thailand’s largest exports destination – surged in June by 41.9% year on year, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce on 24 July. Thailand’s overall imports rose by 13.1% year on year to $27.5 billion in May, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.06 billion. During the first six months of the year, exports rose by 15.0% to $66.8 billion, while imports increased at a slower pace of 11.6% to $66.9 billion. However, this run may not last as front-loading momentum may ease once the US tariffs come into force. Thailand has yet to reach a trade deal with the US on bringing down the tariffs from 36%. Exports are expected to remain positive, but the growth rate would ease from double-digit levels in the next five months to December, said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO). US TARIFF DEADLINE APPROACHES Thailand and the US have yet to come to a trade agreement, raising pressure on the government at a time when the country’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended due to a leaked call in which she criticised the Thai military. Phumtham Wechayachai is currently the Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, while Deputy Prime Minister and finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira is heading trade talks with the US. The southeast Asian country is experiencing further instability amid a border clash with Cambodia, during which armed clashes and rocket fire were reported on the morning of 24 July. Thai fighter jets were deployed in response to the rocket fire and at least 12 have been killed, according to media reports on 24 July. Both sides have accused each other of starting the 24 July conflict, centering around historically disputed border regions of Surin in Thailand and the Cambodian province of Oddar Meanchey. On Friday, the Thai army requested people to stay away from border areas as fighting intensifies. “Aside from uncertainty around US trade policies, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and domestic political instability could pose additional threats to the Thai economy,” the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report on 23 July. The Thai economy is projected to expand at a slower rate of 2.3% in 2025 and of 1.7% in 2026, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) said in its last monetary policy meeting on 25 June. In 2024, actual GDP growth was 2.5%. Meanwhile, the ADB projects a much slower growth of 1.8% for Thailand in 2025, which would further decelerate to 1.6% in 2026. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Timor-Leste is close to achieving full membership in ASEAN this November. The oil- and gas-rich country will see opportunities in its petro infrastructure within the broader market and cooperation mechanisms provided by ASEAN. Once a membership deal is sealed, Timor-Leste’s energy ministry will spend 2026 pushing for a revised Greater Sunrise development plan – either with original operator Australia’s Woodside Energy or a new Chinese EPC and financier, to secure an FID before the nation’s sovereign fund turns to net withdrawal in the early-2030s. Dili’s diplomats would also deepen talks on regional gas integration under ASCOPE-TAGP, positioning the proposed Timor Leste-based Beaçu facility as a future trans-shipment or bunkering hub for intra-ASEAN LNG. BAYU-UNDAN TO SUNRISE MOMENTUM Timor-Leste is one of the world’s youngest nations – having gained independence only in 2002. The country, approximately the size of the US state of Connecticut or South Korea’s Jeju Island, is rich in offshore oil and gas reserves. The nation’s $19 billion sovereign wealth Petroleum Fund has been largely based on oil revenues – with the legacy Bayu-Undan field funding more than 85% of the fund’s balance. Bayu-Undan’s gas sales ceased in late-2023 and will be fully decommissioned in 2026. Bayu-Undan carries high hope for Timor Leste and Australian producer Santos as a “CCS hub” that receives CO2 from Australia, and Japan and South Korea, whose companies hold a combined 38.3% share. Therefore, Timor-Leste is set to further tap into its petro-molecule reserves by granting generous incentives to oil and gas foreign direct investments once accession to ASEAN is completed. Timor GAP E.P., Timor-Leste’s national oil company, holds over half (56.56%) equity in the Woodside-operated (33.44%) Greater Sunrise LNG complex, Japan’s Osaka Gas has the remaining 10% stake. Dili insists Sunrise gas must land on its south coast at a planned Beaçu LNG complex, part of the $12 billion Tasi Mane corridor, while Woodside prefers piping it to the existing Darwin LNG plant or as a floating unit to cut capex. President José Ramos-Horta told local media in May he was courting Chinese partners “if the current operator cannot move forward,” signalling the government’s willingness to look beyond traditional Australian and Japanese partners. Source: La’o Hamutuk ASEAN MEMBERSHIP Full ASEAN status will grant Timor-Leste access to the ASEAN Council on Petroleum and the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) master plan, which stipulates technical standards and opens concessional funding from the ASEAN Infrastructure Fund. Meanwhile, pipe and heavy equipment sourced within ASEAN and LNG modules sold in the region could enjoy Most-Favoured-Nation duties once Timor-Leste signs the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement. ASEAN’s mature regional cooperation mechanisms, particularly within ASEAN+3 framework, can provide Timor-Leste with financing instruments from Japanese, Chinese and Korean banks. Dili hopes those levers will attract partners for Greater Sunrise, as well as for smaller prospects such as the Chuditch gas survey, where a 3D seismic study is scheduled this year. These projects are all still long way to materialising, but ASEAN membership would give the micro-state a bigger table to convert offshore molecules into on-shore assets before the Bayu-Undan money runs out. COMPETIVE LANDSCAPE SPLIT WITH PNG LNG Timor’s ambitions is naturally comparable with Papua New Guinea LNG, a 7.9 mtpa project that turned the resource-rich but infrastructure-poor neighbour into a top regional exporter in 2014. PNG’s experience shows that early identification of anchor buyers in Japan or China – and multilateral lending from ADB and Export-Import banks – can accelerate first gas. But it also highlights social-license challenges, something Timor-Leste is keen to avoid after decades of hard-won stability.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Dow cut its dividend by 50% on Thursday because the downturn in the chemical industry is entering its third year and it will last longer than expected. Shares of Dow fell by more than 16% in midday trading. Earlier on Thursday, Dow reported a Q2 net loss of $801 million. DOW Q3 SALES TO FALL YEAR ON YEARLooking ahead at Q3, Dow expects sales to rise slightly from Q2 levels, but they will remain below year-ago levels, as shown in the following table. Figures are in dollars. Q3 25 Q2 25 Q3 24 Net sales 10.2 billion 10.1 billion 10.9 billion Operating EBITDA 800 million 703 million 1,382 million Source: Dow Dow expects a quarter-on-quarter bump in sales in part because of proposed price increases for polyethylene (PE). Exports have started to resume, and Dow is confident that the proposed hikes will go through because it maintains that integrated margins are low and unsustainable. Dow should get another boost in Q3 earnings from the startup of its new Poly 7 PE line in Freeport, Texas. The train is fully sold out, and Dow is selling the output to higher-margin markets such as food and specialty packaging as well as health and hygiene, said Karen Carter, chief operating officer. The train should provide another boost to earnings by absorbing Dow’s last remnant of merchant ethylene in the Gulf Coast market. The new line and the possible price increase would follow what Dow described as the evaporation of PE exports in the wake of the 2 April tariff announcements. The disappearance of exports led to a 3 cents/lb drop in PE prices. The fallout from the tariff announcements showed up in Dow’s earnings for its Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, which reported a 90% year-on-year decline in operating earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Overall, Dow’s end markets are mixed at best, as shown in the following heat map from the company. Source: Dow Dow has maintained its forecast for mid-cycle earnings, but the company delayed when it would achieve those levels. That could take place near 2030, which was the latter part of an earlier forecast made by Dow. That said, the company warned that the timing of any recovery is difficult because of the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations and what CEO Jim Fitterling described as “a new world order” and trade rebalancing. Concluding trade negotiations would be a first step towards a recovery, and it appears the US is getting close to wrapping up talks, he said during the company’s earnings conference call. TRADE, OVERSUPPLY AND GEOPOLITICSOne of the reasons why earnings will remain depressed for longer is because tensions and tariffs are re-arranging trade routes. Derivatives, more so than chemicals, are being redirected from the US to other markets, Fitterling said. ICIS has reported on the effects of these redirected derivative shipments on chemical markets in southeast Asia, and they have depressed demand for upstream plastics and chemicals. Dow’s international trade operations are managing tariff negotiations through their connections with governments around the world, Fitterling said. Also, there is work going on through the World Trade Organization (WTO) involving how goods are moved around and how to defend fair trade, Fitterling said. Trade organizations and individual companies are pursuing this option. Countries are starting to take action as well. Brazil is considering anti-dumping duties on PE imports from the US and Canada. The EU has started investigations on imports of butanediol (BDO), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and adipic acid (ADA). Downstream, countries have imposed duties on electric vehicles (EVs). WORLD WORKS THROUGH EXCESS CAPACITYDow expects the world will work through excess PE capacity because demand should continue growing faster than GDP, Fitterling said. “I don’t think you are looking at an environment where it’s the end of investing in plastics.” The polyurethanes chain has a lot of overcapacity, and demand is low for several of its key markets, such as construction and durable goods. Isocyanates are in relatively decent shape, Fitterling said. Propylene oxide (PO) will take longer to rebalance. Silicones continue to grow well, but siloxanes will take longer. OTHER CHEM FIRMS SEE NO HELP FROM ECONOMYEarlier in the week, paints and coatings producer Sherwin-Williams lowered its guidance and warned that any growth would come from taking market share away from its competitors. The company expected no help from the economy. Adhesives producer HB Fuller raised its guidance, but its rationale confirmed the pessimistic outlook of Sherwin-Williams and Dow. HB Fuller raised its guidance because of the success of its self-help measures and not because of a stronger economy. Focus article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail image: PE, a product made by Dow (Image source: ICIS)

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada is heading into a “trade war-induced recession” – unless it can reach a quick deal with the US, with low tariffs and a “significant de-escalation”, economists at Oxford Economics said in a webinar. 1 August deal could avoid recession US tariffs hit Canadian exports, investments, housing, jobs USMCA compliance to provide relief Increased defense spending offers limited domestic stimulus Canada’s government is targeting a deal by 1 August but does not provide updates on the trade talks and does not disclose what concessions it may make, insisting it will not negotiate in public. If there is a quick deal, it would result in improved prospects for Canadian GDP growth, said Tony Stillo, director for Canada, and economist Michael Davenport. However, if a deal is not reached by 1 August, Canada could face the 35% tariffs US President Trump threatened for all Canadian exports that are not compliant with the rules of origin and other conditions of the existing US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, the economists said. The 35% tariffs, coming on top of the US sectoral tariffs on autos, aluminum, steel, pharmaceuticals and potentially also copper, would imply a deeper and longer downturn of Canada’s economy, they said. As it stands, the global forecasting firm believes that Canada likely already slipped into a recession that could last through the end of 2025. It is currently forecasting a 0.8% peak-to-trough decline in GDP from Q2 to Q4 2025. Oxford’s baseline forecast for Canada’s GDP is for 0.9% growth in 2025, slowing to 0.4% in 2026 but rebounding 3.0% in 2027. Industrial production, widely seen as a proxy for chemical and plastics demand, is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 before rising by 3.3% in 2027, according to its estimates. EXPORTS DROP Lower exports are the primary negative factor hitting Canadian GDP, but the tariff uncertainties also affect investment plans, households, housing and employment, the Oxford economists said. The US is by far the most important market for Canadian exports, including chemicals and plastics. In chemicals, 77% of Canada’s exports of industrial chemicals headed to the US last year, according to trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC). While Canadian exports to the US rose early this year during a period of “front-loading” when companies tried to get ahead of the tariffs, they have started to decline noticeably more recently. In May, Canadian goods exports to the US were off 27% from a peak in January, and down 16% year on year, the Oxford economists said. The US share of total Canadian goods exports has fallen to about 68%, from a 75% average in 2024, they said. In addition to the direct impact of declining exports, the tariff uncertainties have also affected firms and households. Companies’ investment plans, in particular for machinery and equipment, have largely stalled and expectations for future employment have declined, the economists said. “Persistent under-investment has been a challenge for the Canadian economy for the last decade or so, and that will be exacerbated by the trade war,” noted Davenport. Oxford expects the US tariffs to lead to about 140,000 job losses in Canada by the end of this year, especially in manufacturing, which is mostly concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.6%, Davenport said. The rate was at 6.9% in June. In housing, which is an important end market for chemicals and plastics, re-sales have slumped, and unless there is an immediate trade deal with the US, the slump will accelerate in the second half of this year and extend into 2026, Davenport pointed out. While housing starts have been holding up so far, they are expected to slow in the second half of the year, partly due to rising building costs on the back of tariffs, as well as high interest rates, he said. INTEREST RATES With the “stagflationary tariff shock” Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada (BoC), would need to balance concerns over higher prices with a downturn in the economy, the Oxford economists said. Oxford expects Canada’s consumer price inflation to rise to 3.0% by the middle of 2026, from 1.9% in June. Inflation has been relatively mild in recent months, but this was largely due to the removal of the federal consumer carbon tax in April, the economists noted. Uncertainty about tariffs and their impact led the BoC to keep the policy rate at 2.75% in June and Oxford expects it will stay there. The BoC’s next rate decision is expected to be announced on 30 July. DEFENSE SPENDING Canada’s commitment to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP this fiscal year will not prevent a recession, the economists said. The defense spending hike would go largely on salaries, with “a little bit” going to equipment, Stillo said. Longer-term, Canada has committed to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. However, much of the defense equipment would likely continue to be imported from the US, Stillo noted. Imports are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. Also, the higher defense spending will likely be debt-financed, thus raising the government debt-to-GDP ratio and leading to higher long-term bond yields, which flow through to mortgage rates, thus squeezing housing affordability, he said. Prime Minister Mark Carney said he is aiming for a comprehensive trade and security deal with the US, but did not say if he will use Canadian spending on US military equipment as a bargaining chip in the trade talks. TARIFF RATES, USMCA COMPLIANCE, RETALIATION Oxford currently estimates that the effective average tariff rate Canada faces on all goods exported to the US is 14.1%. However, with a 35% tariff on non-USMCA-compliant goods, the effective rate would rise to an estimated 18.3% on 1 August, if no deal is reached by then, according to Oxford. The following chart shows Oxford Economics’ estimates since March for effective rates of US and Canadian tariffs. It remains unclear what retaliatory measures Canada will take if no deal is reached by 1 August and the US 35% tariff on non-USMCA-compliant goods comes into effect. The economists said Canada, along with Mexico, are highly reliant on trade with the US, but both are less affected than other countries by the trade tensions because of the exemption for USMCA-compliant imports. USMCA compliance of Canadian goods exports has increased in recent months and was at 56% as of May, up from 38% in 2024, according to Oxford’s estimates. For plastics products and autos and parts the compliance rates are especially high, as the following chart by Oxford Economics shows: Most of the increase in compliance was in Canadian fuels exports, which are subject to a lower tariff of 10%. Meanwhile, temporary government relief from Canada’s retaliatory tariffs should help Canadian companies. About C$96 billion (US$71 billion) of goods imported from the US face Canadian retaliatory tariffs, but the government has granted tariff relief (remissions) for goods imports worth between C$56-64 billion, the economists said. The tariff relief is for a wide range of imported products in manufacturing, processing, food and beverage packaging, healthcare, public health and safety, national security, and cases “with severe adverse impacts” and a lack of non-US suppliers, Stillo said. Which products qualify for relief “is still subject to interpretation”, Stillo pointed out before adding, “There is a lot there that firms could use to get tariff relief.” Stillo said although the retaliatory tariffs were a tax on Canadians, the government had to act against the US tariffs, saying, “You can’t just cave in to President Trump.” Canada’s retaliatory tariffs try to target US goods that can be substituted and where the counter-tariffs affect the US economy more than the Canadian economy, he said. On the other hand, the government is providing tariff relief for imported intermediate goods that are deeply integrated into the North American manufacturing process, he said. “So, they are trying to give companies an opportunity to find alternative suppliers, suppliers that are not US-based, not an easy thing to do,” he added. Oxford Economics assumes that most US tariffs will be removed by Q3 2026 as the USMCA is renegotiated. However, targeted tariffs of 10% will remain in place for metal and select agricultural products. Likewise, Oxford expects Canada to remove most of its retaliatory measures by Q3 2026. (US$1=C$1.36) Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo source: Government of Canada