This summary was created by ICIS hydrogen editor Jake Stones and ICIS policy and regulation analyst Aayesha Pathan UPDATED: This analysis was updated to provide greater clarity around the total emissions allowance for low-carbon hydrogen instead of the emissions reduction required. LONDON (ICIS)–On 8 July 2025, the European Commission published its much-awaited delegated act for low-carbon hydrogen, opening the door to regulated low-carbon hydrogen production via natural gas with carbon capture and storage technology. ICIS has produced the following summary of the delegated act and details provided in its annex as a means of supporting the market.

LONDON (ICIS)–The biodiesel market looks poised for lower supply if UK-based fuels supplier and distributor Greenergy finalizes new plans to shut its UK biodiesel site in Immingham announced on Thursday. Greenergy began consulting to cease operations at its biodiesel plant, according to a company statement.  This follows a strategic review to evaluate the plant’s commercial viability in May, when production was halted. “In light of continuing market pressures, we unfortunately do not have enough certainty on the outlook for UK biofuels policy to make the substantial investments required to create a competitive operation at Immingham,” Greenergy said in its statement. The drop in supply as a result of the plant’s potential closure may not necessarily ease market conditions though. This is mainly because of a steady flow of biodiesel from the US. UK biodiesel producers are facing sustained headwinds, as lackluster domestic demand collides with a surge in tariff-free imports from the US and heavily subsidized supplies from China, further undermining market competitiveness. European major Trafigura acquired Greenergy’s European operations in March 2024. Greenergy’s CEO, Adam Trager said he was looking to have “urgent talks” with the government on a higher quota of biofuels in UK petrol and diesel consumption. This would support demand in the biofuels sector, in particular biodiesel. Biodiesel, which can be derived from vegetable oils, animal fats, or other waste-based bio-feedstocks, is used as fuel in diesel engines.

LONDON (ICIS)–Petrochemicals will remain a key component of oil demand through to 2050, according to the latest forecast published by OPEC on Thursday. Petchem demand set to rise by 4.7m barrels/day by 2050 Increasing GDP and non-OECD populations drive increase Regulatory, environmental concerns pose challenges to growth The World Oil Outlook forecasts that demand from the petrochemicals sector will significantly increase, by 4.7 million barrels a day, from 15.5 million barrels/day in 2024 to 20.2 million barrels/day in 2050. The sector is set to account for 16% of total oil demand in 2050, from 14% in 2024, with 90% of that growth coming from the Middle East and China as new capacity comes on stream. Petrochemicals demand for oil will predominantly be as a feedstock, as more competitively priced fuels such as natural gas remain viable alternatives. While natural gas and biomass are expected to increase their shares as a source of feedstock, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will remain more suitable products for many downstream materials. Petrochemicals oil demand in the OECD will likely mirror tight oil production in the US, which produces LPG and ethane as feedstocks in that market. “Accordingly, demand in this sector is expected to grow until around 2035 and then start a slow decline for the rest of the forecast period,” the report said. This would see offtake from OECD countries reach 7.7 million barrels/day by 2050, close to its level in 2024. MACRO, DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERSOverall demand is driven by expected GDP growth, rising population and income levels, and expanding industries and technologies that these products use, including renewables, electric vehicles (EVs) and construction. “It is assumed, however, that this growth potential will be partly constrained by regulations and actions linked to environmental concerns,” the report advised. “These relate to commitments to reduce the sector’s carbon footprint, the push to increase recycling, restrictions on single-use plastics, implementing ‘Extended Producer Responsibility’ schemes, an increasing penetration of bioplastics and improved circularity of petrochemical products.” The outlook cautioned that uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs could also weigh on the chemicals market dynamics and downstream products. Naphtha demand is expected to grow from 2.8 million barrels/day in 2024 to 3.1 million barrels/day in 2030 in OECD countries, and remain around this level for the entire forecast. OECD ethane/LPG demand is expected to rise by more than 600,000 barrels/day in the medium term before softening, partly as a result of a decline in petrochemical demand but also on LPG substitution in other sectors. The outlook expects aviation to be the only segment that will show growth over the entire forecast period, with even this experiencing some limitations, adding around 1 million barrels/day between 2024 and 2050. China remains the dominant country for oil demand, peaking at 17.7 million boe (barrels of oil equivalent) a day in 2035, driven by petrochemical growth and heavy transportation, but subsiding to 17.1 million boe/day, in part due to increased EV use. Oil consumption growth in India is expected to rise from 400,000 barrels/day in 2024 to 1 million barrels/day in 2050, with naphtha used as the primary feedstock. Petrochemical demand from non-OECD countries will be particularly strong as a result of population growth and an increasing middle class. In response, oil consumption is expected to rise to 12.5 million barrels/day in 2050, from nearly 8 million barrels/day in 2024 – an incremental increase of 4.6 million barrels/day. Demand for ethane/LPG from non-OECD countries will increase by more than 4 million barrels/day between 2024 and 2050, while naphtha will add another 2.4 million barrels/day to incremental demand during the same period. The global population is predicted to rise by around 1.5 billion people, from 8.2 billion in 2024 to almost 9.7 billion by 2050, mainly in non-OECD countries. MOBILITY TO REMAIN PIVOTALTransport is set to remain “the backbone of oil demand” to 2050, accounting for 57% of global consumption in 2024, and is expected to largely retain this share over the entire forecast period. This accounts for both road travel and the aviation industry. Overall energy demand is predicted to grow by 23%, with demand for all fuels expected to rise apart from coal. Oil consumption is expected to reach 123 million barrels/day by 2050. Oil will retain the most significant share of the energy mix, just below 30%, with oil and gas accounting for over half of demand between 2024 and 2050. The share of renewables is set to increase by 10 percentage points from 2024, to 13.5% in 2050. Chemicals usage is in part attributed to growth in demand from both segments, as products will be used for renewables, for instance in manufacturing photovoltaic panels for solar energy. The percentage of oil, gas, and coal in the energy mix was around 80% in 2024, “only a little less than when OPEC was founded in 1960, despite energy consumption increasing more than five-fold over that time”, the report noted. Although the long-term forecast is for increased energy demand, the outlook cautioned that volatility around the global economy and energy markets could alter the landscape quickly. In 2024 petrochemicals production, along with growth in the aviation sector, were cited as the drivers of oil demand, which rose by 1.3 million boe/day compared with 2023, supported by sustained growth in transport and residential sectors in developing countries. This growth was primarily driven by the continued expansion of the petrochemicals and aviation sectors, as well as sustained growth in road transportation and residential sectors in developing countries. Focus article by Morgan Condon

Route 1 capacity should be offered on quarterly basis Capacity will be used only as last-resort if TSOs do not slash tariffs further Ukraine renewable sector needs support mechanism ROME (ICIS)–Traders looking to export gas from Greece to Ukraine using a new bundled capacity product would benefit from three key improvements by grid operators, the CEO of D.Trading, the company that is currently using this route, told ICIS. Dmytro Sakharuk said transmission system operators should consider increasing the capacity allocated for this route, which uses the Trans-Balkan corridor, extend the booking period and reduce tariffs. Speaking on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome on 9 July, the CEO said his company booked the largest capacity for gas exports from the Greek VTP to Ukrainian storage in July. He said gas transmission system operators (TSOs) need to allocate a minimum firm capacity to allow companies to predict their market position. Currently, Route 1 capacity is offered based on what is left over after firm capacity for standard products is booked during regular monthly auctions. However, Sakharuk said gas grid operators should guarantee at least a minimum capacity which traders can count on every month. He also noted that if the product, currently offered on a temporary basis, were to be extended beyond October, it should be marketed for a longer period. Sakharuk said traders would benefit if this capacity were offered on a quarterly basis as many companies may be looking to import LNG via Greece, which may require greater time flexibility in terms of imports, regasification and send-out. TARIFFS Most importantly, however, Sakharuk said transmission system operators need to reduce transmission costs even more than they currently do. Grid operators agreed to reduce by 25% aggregated transmission tariffs from Greece up to the Romania-Ukraine border, with a further reduction of 47% expected between the Ukrainian and Moldovan borders. Nevertheless, Sakharuk said, even when accounting for the discounts, the fixed capacity cost was €6.68/MWh which, he said, was excessively high. This cost does not include additional variables, which bring the total transmission cost up to €9.00/MWh. Sakharuk said gas grid operators should benchmark these costs against much cheaper routes from Hungary or Poland. The cost to ship gas along Route 1 is disproportionately higher because Romania’s Transgaz and its Moldovan subsidiary, VMTG, charge some of the heftiest transmission costs in the region despite having no compression costs along the route. Sakharuk said that, unless grid operators implemented these changes, the route will never be viable and traders will only use it as a last resort if all regional transmission capacity elsewhere is fully booked. RENEWABLES On a different note, speaking at one of the side events organised by the Florence School of Regulation and Ukraine-based think tank Dixi Group, Sakharuk also referred to the development of the renewable sector in Ukraine. He said the country needed to introduce a support scheme if it was serious about scaling up clean production. He said his company, a subsidiary of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power and gas producer, sees a lot of investor interest in developing the wind and solar sector despite war-related risks. However, he said many developers were put off by falling electricity prices which meant it was difficult to take a long-term investment decision if prices were forecast to fall. The price decline is largely the effect of a vicious cycle, also affecting EU producers, where rising renewable output was depressing margins. However, while EU countries benefit from generous funds in supporting scaled up projects, Ukraine does not have similar schemes, which means that investors are reluctant to commit to long-term projects.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) is currently assessing the impact of an 8 July fire incident at its Kochi refinery and petrochemical complex in the southern Kerala state, a company source said on Thursday. Twenty-three people were hospitalized – seven BPCL workers and 16 residents of the surrounding area – after inhaling smoke following an explosion and fire near BPCL’s central warehousing unit on 8 July, the source said. The fire was caused by a power fluctuation in a 200-kilovolt (kV) underground cable, which passes through a concealed trench on the BPCL Kochi Refinery campus, the company source said. This has affected some plant operations at the site, he said, but did not provide further information. Any impact on operations at any of the plants in the refinery is unclear, based on checks with other company sources. BPCL operates a 15.5 million tonne/year refinery at its Kochi complex and produces liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, benzene, toluene, hexane, propylene, sulphur, petcoke and hydrogen. The company also operates a specialty propylene derivatives petrochemical project at its Kochi refinery complex which has the capacity to produce 160,000 tonnes/year of acrylic acid; 212,000 tonnes/year oxo alcohols (n-butanol, iso butanol and 2-ethyl hexanol); and 190,000 tonnes/year of acrylates (butyl acrylate and 2-ethyl hexyl acrylate). The Kerala state government announced that a special committee was created to investigate the fire which will submit its report within three days. A separate committee has been formed to review BPCL’s disaster management action plan and to recommend any changes within a week. The committee that will review BPCL’s disaster management plan will include the deputy collector of the district, BPCL’s security officer, electrical inspector and officials from the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB). Additional reporting by Corey Chew and Aswin Kondapally

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Trade tensions have been in focus for the wider petrochemical markets since US Liberation Day tariffs were announced. In this podcast, propylene editor Julia Tan speaks with ethylene editor Josh Quah to examine how recent tariff developments have impacted the Asian olefins market. Ethylene support collapses with ethane resolution, new downstream demand to cushion drops US tariff impact to trickle up from end use sectors Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announces propylene futures, beginning 22 July

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. The global polypropylene (PP) market is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by remarkable changes in China’s trade flows. The data tells a compelling story of a country rapidly transitioning from a net importer to a potential net exporter of PP by year-end 2025. Consider these incredible shifts: PP Exports Soaring: As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports were a mere 0.4m tonnes. If current trends continue, 2025 could see that figure hit 5.7m tonnes – a staggering 3.3m tonnes higher than 2024! Net Imports Plummeting: China’s PP net imports, which hit an all-time high of 6.1m tonnes in 2020, are projected to fall to just 0.2m tonnes in 2025. A Historic Turn: My ICIS colleague Lucy Shuai highlighted that China was actually a net exporter of PP between March and May 2025. This turnaround has profound implications for overseas producers. I’ve estimated the impact on sales turnover in China among China’s top PP import partners. Comparing the 41 months before the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle ended with the 41 months since (up to May 2025), the losses are stark. South Korea leads with a $1.6bn loss in sales turnover. Taiwan follows with $1.1bn in losses. Saudi Arabia saw losses of $1.0bn. Only the Russian Federation gained, up by $178m. These figures reflect a significant drop in total PP imports into China (from 18.7m tonnes to 13.7m tonnes across the compared periods), coupled with a decline in average PP prices. What’s driving this? China’s petrochemicals self-sufficiency is rapidly increasing. ICIS forecasts China’s PP capacity as a percentage of demand will surge from 94% in 2019 to 123% in 2025, and 127% by 2030. This, combined with weaker domestic demand growth and the second Trump trade war, is pushing China to spread its export net ever wider, beyond traditional markets to destinations like Brazil, India, Turkey, and Africa. What does this mean for the global PP industry? Defensive measures like anti-dumping actions are likely. But more critically, producers outside China must go on the offensive. This demands: Dynamic Sales Tactics: Maximising returns from every tonne by constantly re-evaluating sales efforts in diverse global markets. Data-driven decisions on where and when to sell are paramount. Strategic Innovation: The old approach of passively riding out downturns is no longer viable. Innovation, particularly in developing new end-use applications (making your own demand), is key to addressing challenges like climate change. Events in China, combined with climate change, the plastic-waste crisis, demographics and deglobalisation mean the Supercycle’s dynamics no longer apply. A proactive, strategic, and innovative approach is essential for survival and growth. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Average spot rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US East Coast are likely to fall faster than rates to the West Coast, and could be within $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) by the end of July. According to Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, ocean carriers will work to slow the rapid decline in Asia-USWC rates by removing – or at least stop adding – capacity to the transpacific trade lane. “That means average spot rates into the US East Coast will decline at a faster rate and likely fall to within $1,000/FEU of rates into the US West Coast by the end of July – a much more familiar scenario for shippers,” Sand said. Average spot rates from Asia to the West Coast have fallen by more than 50% over the past month, peaking at almost $6,000/FEU during the week ended 20 June. Rates from Asia to the East Coast peaked at around $7,200/FEU in the first half of June. “Geopolitics has upset the natural order of ocean container shipping on transpacific trades in Q2, and shippers are still struggling to make sense of the situation,” Sand said. “Shippers need to act decisively to protect supply chains, but this becomes more difficult when they see abnormal trends such as Asia fronthaul freight rates collapsing into the US West Coast while holding stronger into the US East Coast.” Capacity volatility on the Asia-USWC trade lane has surged amid blank sailings, vessels sailing off schedule, and vessels of varying sizes along the same routes, according to Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence. The following chart shows weekly capacity on the transpacific trade lane dating back to 2013. Source: Sea-Intelligence “For the past three years, capacity volatility has been ranging around 250% higher than in 2012 – with variability often reaching up to 300% higher,” Murphy said. “Compared to 2012, capacity volatility on Asia-USWC has almost quadrupled.” Murphy added that volatility is increasing not only in the weeks with high changes, but also in the more stable and calm weeks. “This shows an increased volatility in the overall supply/demand balance on Asia-USWC trade lane,” Murphy said. “To the degree that spot rates are driven by the actual weekly supply/demand balance, this capacity volatility means that the underlying driver for spot rate formation on Asia-USWC has become progressively more unstable over the past 13 years – creating a much more volatile and unpredictable spot rate in itself.” Market intelligence group Linerlytica said US consumer demand is holding steady, with preliminary import volume data for May and June showing imports from Asia declining by only 5.6% in the last two months despite the severe disruption from the Trump tariffs. Although imports from China dropped by 24% year on year, volumes from all other Asian origins recorded positive gains, led by Vietnam and Indonesia which grew by 34% and 33% respectively, Linerlytica said. Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to rebound in July after a double-digit drop in late spring but is forecast to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. “The tariff situation remains highly fluid, and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to 1 August is greatly appreciated.” The following chart from NRF/Hackett Associates shows the forecast for import volumes by month. “Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs,” Gold said. “Tariffs are paid by US companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive-up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. RED SEA UPDATE Yemen-backed Houthi rebels attacked two commercial vessels in the Red Sea over the past few days, leading Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, to suggest there is not much chance of a reversal back to a Suez routing for the major container lines in the short to medium term. The Houthis began attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea in November 2023, which led shippers to divert away from the region and stop using the Suez Canal, the shortest route between Asia and Europe. While 30% of all global container trade passes through the Suez, only 12% of US-bound cargo used that route. Focus article by Adam Yanelli Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US has proposed tariffs on seven more countries on Wednesday, which will take effect on 1 August. The following table summarizes the seven latest tariffs and shows US imports from each country, exports to each country and the US trade deficit. Figures are in US dollars. Country Rate General Imports ($) Domestic Exports ($) US Deficit ($) Algeria 30% 2,461,611,826 949,221,120 1,512,390,706 Brunei 25% 238,619,776 114,316,225 124,303,551 Iraq 30% 7,540,759,781 1,429,523,113 6,111,236,668 Libya 30% 1,465,240,472 535,932,429 929,308,043 Moldova 25% 136,234,076 48,154,040 88,080,036 Philippines 20% 14,161,845,726 8,293,021,350 5,868,824,376 Sri Lanka 30% 3,013,844,753 345,062,214 2,668,782,539 Source: US International Trade Commission (USITC) The US began proposing tariffs on Monday by sending form letters to countries. The letters say that the US trade deficits are engendered by each country’s “tariff and nontariff policies and trade barriers”. The letters do not specify any such policies and trade barriers. Transshipments would be subject to higher rates that are not specified by the letters. The tariffs proposed in the letters are apparently in lieu of the reciprocal tariffs that were supposed to take effect on 9 July. It is unclear what will happen to the US tariffs on countries that did not receive letters. They could rise to the reciprocal tariff rates proposed on 2 April, or they could remain at the baseline 10% rate. Regardless, US President Donald Trump said the country will not delay the tariffs past the 1 August deadline. The following table shows the countries that have received tariff letters since Monday, 7 July. Figures are in US dollars. Country Rate General Imports ($) Domestic Exports ($) US Deficit ($) Algeria 30% 2,461,611,826 949,221,120 1,512,390,706 Bangladesh 35% 8,358,699,586 2,274,193,133 6,084,506,453 Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% 178,941,279 49,038,963 129,902,316 Brunei 25% 238,619,776 114,316,225 124,303,551 Cambodia 36% 12,645,678,620 295,723,291 12,349,955,329 Indonesia 32% 28,052,104,638 9,719,977,045 18,332,127,593 Iraq 30% 7,540,759,781 1,429,523,113 6,111,236,668 Japan 25% 148,370,517,793 70,317,270,600 78,053,247,193 Kazakhstan 25% 2,348,972,335 942,870,411 1,406,101,924 Laos 40% 802,837,802 35,894,658 766,943,144 Libya 30% 1,465,240,472 535,932,429 929,308,043 Malaysia 25% 52,488,424,825 21,757,221,476 30,731,203,349 Moldova 25% 136,234,076 48,154,040 88,080,036 Myanmar (Burma) 40% 652,374,896 73,078,845 579,296,051 Philippines 20% 14,161,845,726 8,293,021,350 5,868,824,376 Serbia 35% 814,215,370 185,021,881 629,193,489 South Africa 30% 14,688,463,366 5,037,077,824 9,651,385,542 South Korea 25% 131,553,159,443 61,571,006,156 69,982,153,287 Sri Lanka 30% 3,013,844,753 345,062,214 2,668,782,539 Thailand 36% 63,349,646,604 15,143,710,276 48,205,936,328 Tunisia 25% 1,122,719,556 469,035,549 653,684,007 Source: USITC Thumbnail shows a container ship, which is commonly used in international trade Image by Shutterstock.