HOUSTON (ICIS)–Australian BCI Minerals announced it has commenced operations at its Mardie salt and potash project after receiving all necessary Western Australian and Commonwealth government environmental approvals. It has begun filling evaporation ponds 1, 2, and 3 with BCI Minerals set to update and resubmit its groundwater monitoring and management plan (GMMP) for further approval before filling evaporations ponds 4 through 9. Construction of the salt-first component of the project is over halfway completed with it expected the company will achieve first salt on ship in Q2 2027. Located 80km south of Karratha, in the Pilbara region, Mardie is anticipated to produce 5.35 million tonnes/year of high-quality industrial salt for export and 140,000 tonnes/year of sulphate of potash (SOP). It has an operating life expected to exceed 60 years. “Australia hasn’t developed a salt project of this significance in 25 years, and the Mardie Project will be Australia’s largest solar salt project and the third largest globally,” said David Boshoff, BCI Minerals managing director. “With the projected growth in demand for high grade industrial salt in our target Asian markets, BCI Minerals is strongly positioned to supply global markets with Mardie salt for generations.”

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A quarter of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut in as Helene becomes close to becoming a major hurricane. The following table shows the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Total % of US Gulf Oil, bbl/day 441,923 25.25% Gas, million cubic feet/day 363.39 19.81% Source: BSEE Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 27 7.28% Rigs evacuated 1 20% Source: BSEE Hurricane Helene has maximum sustained wind speeds of nearly 110 miles/hour (175 km/hour), which is 1 mile/hour below becoming a major hurricane. It is on track to make landfall in the Big Bend, a sparsely populated region of northwestern Florida. The following map shows the forecasted path of Helene. Source: National Hurricane Center FLORIDA CHEMS AT RISKHelene could threaten Panama City, Florida, where Kraton operates a crude sulphate turpentine refinery and a crude tall oil (CTO) refinery. Tall oil is a feedstock for the production of fatty acids, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Helene’s path is too far east to threaten Pensacola, which is home to some nylon and thermoset resin plants. Helene is moving on the opposite side of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Those two states are home to most of the refineries, petrochemical plants and LNG capacity of the US. Operations at those plants will not be threatened by Helene. Helene will not make landfall near Tampa Bay, an important hub for the US fertilizer industry. Tampa hosts corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Nonetheless, Helene will disrupt operations at the port of Tampa Bay. PORTS CLOSED TO TRAFFIC ALONG EASTERN GULF COASTInbound and outbound traffic has ceased among numerous ports along Florida’s Gulf Coast, including Port Tampa Bay, an important entrepot. Tampa is in the region that could see a peak storm surge of 5-8 feet (1.5-2.4 meters), as shown in the following map. Source: National Hurricane Center The following table shows some of the other ports in Florida that are closed. Panama City, Florida Port St Joe, Florida St Petersburg, Florida Manatee, Florida Source: US Coast Guard The following ports are open with restrictions. Pensacola, Florida Mobile, Alabama Source: US Coast Guard RAIL DISRUPTIONS Railroad company CSX plans to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday. Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays. RECONSTRUCTION AND CHEM DEMANDHurricane Helene’s current path could put $5.64 billion worth of housing at risk to storm surge flooding, an insurance data company said on Wednesday. Nearly 25,000 residential properties in the Tallahassee and Homosassa Springs metropolitan areas are at risk, said CoreLogic. “Helene has the potential to become a once-in-a-generation storm,” said Jon Porter, chief meteorologist for the meteorology firm AccuWeather. It estimates that most of Florida and much of the southeastern US will be exposed to winds reaching 40-60 miles/hour. AccuWeather expects that most of Florida and all of the states of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina are at risk for tornados. For hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives. Thumbnail photo: Helene. (By the National Hurricane Center) (adds missing world “Gulf” in headline)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian fertilizer developer Karnalyte Resources announced it will begin a review of its development strategy to evaluate the economic potential of increasing magnesium chloride production at their Wynyard project in Saskatchewan. This effort will be undertaken by developing the magnesium assets at the same time as the development of the potash project. The company said the carnallite, also known as hydrated potassium magnesium chloride, is abundant within their mineral deposit so they need to determine the economic balance of developing carnallite for the co-production of magnesium chloride and potassium chloride. The aim is to significantly increase magnesium chloride production through the application of advanced solution mining technologies. The Government of Canada lists magnesium as one of the nation’s 34 critical minerals and it also appears on the lists in other countries including the US, the EU and Australia. Magnesium is a key mineral in the clean technologies and advanced manufacturing value chain while magnesium chloride serves as a key raw material in the production of various chemicals used in high-tech applications such as semiconductor manufacturing and in industries including agriculture and pharmaceuticals. “In light of the increasing importance of magnesium as one of the building blocks for the green and digital economy, we are reevaluating our strategy and we believe we should review the inclusion of concurrent and optimized magnesium and potash deposit development in our plans for the benefit of all stakeholders,” said Danielle Favreau, Karnalyte Resources CEO. The company said it plans to make progress on its technical report through the remainder of the year, which is a key precursor to any mine construction. It expects to complete the study on the review of its development strategy by the first quarter of 2025. Wynyard is one of two projects Karnalyte Resources is advancing with planned phase 1 production calculated at 625,000 tonnes/year of high-grade granular potash with two subsequent phases of 750,000 tonnes/year from each phase. The company noted that all environmental permits remain valid with preliminary detailed engineering complete and that the existing offtake agreement with Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited remains in effect.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Companies have shut in nearly 30% of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricane Helene, which meteorologists expect will strengthen into a powerful Category 4 storm before making landfall in a sparsely populated region in northwestern Florida on Thursday. The following table summarizes the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Total % of US Gulf Oil, bbl/day 511,000 29.18% Gas, million cubic feet/day 313 16.85% Source: BSEE Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 17 4.58% Rigs evacuated 1 20% Source: BSEE Given Helene’s eastern path, Shell said it is ramping up production at Appomattox to normal levels. Shell has started restoring production at Stones. On Monday, bp said it had started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms. It is curtailing production its Argos and Atlantis platforms. The meteorological firm AccuWeather is warning that Helene could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in the Big Bend region in northwestern Florida. A Category 4 storm qualifies as a major hurricane and has maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 130 miles/hour (209 km/hour) under the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. “The impacts from Helene will be widespread – not just confined to locations near landfall in the Florida Panhandle,” said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. “The storm surge will be life-threatening across the Florida Panhandle and southward to near Tampa.” Based on the current forecast, Helene will not make landfall near Tampa Bay, an important hub for the US fertilizer industry. Tampa hosts corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Nonetheless, Helene will disrupt operations at the port of Tampa Bay. The US Coast Guard set port condition YANKEE, under which gale-force winds could disrupt maritime operations in the next 24 hours. Railroad company CSX plans to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday. Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays. Helene could threaten Panama City, Florida, where Kraton operates a crude sulphate turpentine refinery and a crude tall oil (CTO) refinery. Tall oil is a feedstock for the production of fatty acids, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Helene’s path is too far east to threaten Pensacola, which is home to some nylon and thermoset resin plants. Helene is moving on the opposite side of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Those two states are home to most of the refineries, petrochemical plants and LNG capacity of the US. Operations at those plants will not be threatened by Helene. The following map shows the forecasts path of Helene. Source: National Hurricane Center THREATS FROM THE STORMAccuWeather is warning of catastrophic inland flooding from northern Georgia to western North Carolina. Strong winds could knock down power lines and cause outages that could last for days or even weeks. The major city of Atlanta, Georgia, is at risk of significant power outages and flooding. Much of Florida, Georgia and eastern Alabama are at risk of tornados on Thursday. On Friday, the threat shifts to the Carolinas, southern Virginia, eastern Tennessee and southeastern Kentucky. Thumbnail shows Hurricane Helene. Image by the National Hurricane Center.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Helene strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday while maintaining its course to make landfall in a sparsely populated region of northwestern Florida later in the week, meteorologists said. By the time Helene makes landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, it should be a major hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. Based on the current forecast, Helene will not make landfall near Tampa Bay, an important hub for the US fertilizer industry. Tampa hosts corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Nonetheless, Helene will disrupt operations at the port of Tampa Bay. The US Coast Guard set port condition YANKEE, under which gale-force winds could disrupt maritime operations in the next 24 hours. Railroad company CSX plans to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday. Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays. If Helene veers farther west, it could threaten Panama City, Florida, where Kraton operates a crude sulphate turpentine refinery and a crude tall oil (CTO) refinery. Helene’s path is too far east to threaten Pensacola, which is home to some nylon and thermoset resin plants. Helene is moving on the opposite side of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Those two states are home to most of the refineries, petrochemical plants and LNG capacity of the US. Operations at those plants will not be threatened by Helene. FIRMS SHUT IN OIL OUTPUT IN GULFDespite Helene’s eastern path, oil companies have still shut in production in the Gulf of Mexico. The following table summarizes the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Total % of US Gulf Oil, bbl/day 284,000 16.21% Gas, million cubic feet/day 208 11.20% Source: BSEE Total % of US Gulf Platforms evacuated 4 1.08% Rigs evacuated 0 0 Source: BSEE Given Helene’s eastern path, Shell said it is ramping up production at Appomattox to normal levels. Shell has started restoring production at Stones. On Monday, bp said it had started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms. It is curtailing production its Argos and Atlantis platforms. THREATS OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS IN SOUTHEASTERN USHurricane force winds could extend up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of Helene, the National Hurricane Center said. Tropical storm force winds could extend up to 275 miles. The meteorological firm AccuWeather warned that a storm surge of 6-10 feet (1.8-3.0 meters) could threaten the Florida coast, beginning from the north of Tampa Bay to the east of Apalachicola. A storm surge of 10-15 feet is expected just east of the Big Bend region of Florida. AccuWeather warned that winds of 40-60 miles/hour could extend north across much of the southeastern US as Helene moves north on Friday. Flash floods could strike northeastern Georgia, western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia. Thumbnail shows forecasted path of Hurricane Helene. Image by the National Hurricane Center.

NEW YORK (ICIS)–The lack of a meaningful recovery in volumes amid a weak macroeconomic backdrop along with geopolitical uncertainty are key factors hindering mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, panelists said at a recent meeting of the Societe de Chimie Industrielle in New York. “Right now, it’s all about volume in our businesses. That’s the number one issue, because we have operating leverage in our businesses where small increases in volume will lead to meaningful increases in profitability,” said Scott Wolff, managing director at private equity firm American Securities. “Fortunately, our portfolio companies – mostly specialties businesses – have maintained real pricing power during this inflationary period. So, our margins across portfolio companies are really strong,” he added. Wolff is also chairman of US-based specialty chemical companies Hexion, Meridian Adhesives and Vibrantz (combination of former Ferro, Chromaflo and Prince businesses). On the macroeconomic front, “China is struggling and is not going to hit 5% growth while Europe is clearly struggling with Germany potentially in recession. The US has been remarkably resilient,” said Peter Young, CEO of investment bank Young & Partners. Panelists at the Societe de Chimie Industrielle meeting from American Securities, DC Advisory, Young & Partners and ICIS. COMMODITY VS SPECIALTY“Demand is soft but there’s a bit of a split personality. If you talk about specialty chemicals, weaker demand is not helping but at least they’re not facing overcapacity,” said Young. “Commodity chemicals is a very different story. There is a massive increase in capacity in China of commodity chemicals and plastics, coupled with the Middle East trying to add capacity because they want to diversify away from [fuel], he added, pointing out that an “irrational amount of capacity” is coming online. He doesn’t see global capacity utilization improving for commodity chemicals until 2028. “For specialty chemicals businesses, the lower cost in commodities works to our advantage because our companies are buying those raw materials at favorable prices,” said Wolff from American Securities. DEALS PUT ON HOLDThis widespread weakness in volumes has curbed M&A activity as many potential sale processes were delayed or put on hold. “Profits in 2023 dipped for a number of companies, so a number of processes that were started in 2023 got pushed back or put on hold because people were concerned about lower 2023 results and did not have enough visibility on 2024 numbers,” said Federico Mennella, managing director and US head of chemicals at investment bank DC Advisory, a unit of Japan’s Daiwa Securities. Today, in contrast, players are now focused on improved 2024 results and have more confidence in 2025 figures, he noted. “At the beginning of the year, we expected volumes in 2024 to be significantly higher than in 2023. In fact, the M&A market was weaker than expected in H1 2024, although we still expect an increase in transactions in the months ahead and in 2025,” said Mennella. The banker attributes the slowdown to difficult credit conditions, geopolitical factors – including elections in a number of countries, the war in Ukraine and Middle East uncertainty – high energy costs and logistics considerations. Data from Young & Partners show chemical M&A activity market is down significantly, with only 20 deals above $25 million in size closing in H1 2024 versus 75 for all of 2023 and 86 for all of 2022. And among the 20 deals closed in H1 2024, 55% were in Asia – mainly in China with Chinese buyers. “That makes the accessible market even smaller for Western players because private equity firms are not lining up to do LBOs (leveraged buyouts) in China,” said Young. “Chemical deal volume has gone down, mainly because of uncertainty. And Europe volume has just plunged because Europe is in trouble. Their energy sources have changed and are much higher cost, and in general it is a high-cost place to make chemicals,” he added. On a geographic basis, Europe is certainly being eyed more cautiously and critically in terms of investment by private equity firms, Mennella from DC Advisory pointed out. There are less cross-border deals coming from China while the US remains a key area of interest. M&A activity in the US could pick up with interest rates easing, he added. “We are also seeing increased M&A activity in and from Japan, as well as from Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern companies and entities,” said Mennella. Meanwhile, chemical companies themselves are more active in restructuring, repositioning and refocusing their businesses, which in turn drives M&A activity among strategic players as well as private equity groups, he added. PROCESSES TAKING LONGERPrivate equity firms bought “a lot of companies in the 2015-2019 period which they need to sell soon. Other private equity groups are raising funds and want to show good returns on prior investments,” said Mennella. “But processes often take longer because of gaps between sellers and buyers. We expect a catch-up once we have confidence in 2024 earnings and projections for 2025.” he added. “You see that every time we go through a peak and valuations start to come down – volumes start to drop because buyers and sellers can’t agree on price,” said Young from Young & Partners. In 2023, for American Securities, in approximately 75% of the deals evaluated by the investment team, there was no transaction. This compares to around 30% in a typical year, Wolff pointed out. “Broadly speaking, there has been a buyer-seller disconnect, and there are various factors [contributing to this] including interest rates and destocking in 2023. So while we were able to close a number of transactions, there is no question that the pace of dealmaking has been slower for us and the industry at large,” said Wolff. GOOD TIME FOR BOLT-ONSCertain private equity firms are continuing to make bolt-on acquisitions to existing platform companies rather than taking on major new deals on the buy side. “From an M&A perspective, the market is active right now. That’s not necessarily the case for platform investments. But for add-on deals, there continues to be an abundance of opportunities. We are really active on that front,” said Wolff. In August 2024, American Securities’ portfolio company Vibrantz acquired US-based Micro Abrasives, a producer of specialty alumina for automotive refinishing, optics polishing and industrial lapping markets. In June 2024, portfolio company Meridian Adhesives acquired specialty adhesives producer Bondloc UK, which makes anaerobic adhesives, cyanoacrylates, epoxies, UV cure adhesives, and structural acrylics. On the sell side for American Securities, Hexion in April 2024 announced the sale of its PVA and EPI Emulsions business to Franklin International, a US-based producers of adhesives, sealants and polymers that supplied that Hexion business for over 40 years. Also in April, Vibrantz sold its Onda, Spain ceramic floor and wall tile manufacturing operations to Xphere Global Specialities, an affiliate of Vidres India Ceramics. TARGETED PROCESSES AND FLEXIBLE DEAL STRUCTURESIn a challenging deal environment, players are engaging in more targeted buy or sell processes rather than putting an asset out for auction. Deal structures are also becoming more flexible to bridge any gaps. “A number of transactions include targeted processes that do not involve a broad auction. In other cases, a strategic or private equity group with sector knowledge targets a specific asset and approaches the owner directly,” said Mennella from DC Advisory. One case in point was Germany-based Henkel proactively approaching Arsenal Capital Partners for the acquisition of US-based protective coatings and sealants producer Seal For Life industries ($250 million in 2023 sales) and closing the deal in April 2024, he noted. “In another situation, instead of a broad auction, we targeted five logical buyers before going through any process. Two of the five submitted bids, and one was accepted. It never went to the broader market,” said Mennella. Earnings growth and macro assumptions are much fuzzier today, often requiring flexible or hybrid M&A models to get deals done. “A lot of the acquisitions made in the past were based on a variety of optimistic assumptions – the EBITDA was going to increase, the exit multiple was going to remain or even increase, interest rates would continue to stay low, and everything was going to be on a consistent and predictable trajectory,” said Mennella. “Given the recent post-pandemic market dynamics, many buyers are more flexible and innovative in structuring and executing their deals,” he added. In certain private equity sell-side deals, the seller is retaining a portion of its stake rather than exiting 100%. In August 2024, H.I.G. Capital announced a deal to sell water treatment solutions company USALCO to private equity firm TJC (formerly The Jordan Company) while retaining a minority stake. “The willingness of private equity and strategics to utilize flexibility and inventiveness helps bridge gaps and gets transactions done,” said Mennella. Or private equity firms could simply stand pat and hold onto their portfolio companies for longer, especially for those firms with longer fund lives. “We’re excited about the investment thesis of our companies and their long-term potential. Fortunately, we can be patient,” said Wolff from American Securities. “We’d rather realize the earnings growth we see in these companies before exit, and if that means holding for longer, that’s fine,” he added. CHALLENGE FOR MANAGEMENTSAmid all the uncertainty and weak demand backdrop, what should other chemical company managements do? “It really depends on who you are and where you are because the nature of the problem and the opportunity and the solution are going to be dramatically different,” said Young of Young & Partners. “First, take a real look at the asset and try to characterize it. And then the solution will be driven by the nature of that asset – in terms of its competitiveness, who and where its customers are, etc.,” he added. Obviously, a commodity chemical producer in the US will have very different options than those in Europe and Asia because of cost competitiveness. “Most CEOs are quite nervous these days because the landscape has changed dramatically and become much more uncertain. In the US presidential election, there is going to be a huge difference in policy depending on who becomes president – on tariffs and so forth,” said Young. “It used to be CEOs could do a base case, have two or three scenarios, and plan around them. Now they don’t know what their base case is, much less what the scenarios are to consider,” he added. The path to zero carbon emissions and greater circularity are additional challenges for managements, as technologies are all over the place and return on investment is far from certain, the banker pointed out. “Most of these CEOs are saying – I’ve got to do it. I may not get a return on capital, but I don’t really have much choice because if I don’t do anything, five years down the road… I’m going to be in trouble,” said Young. LYONDELLBASELL EXAMPLESome companies are taking decisive action. US-based LyondellBasell, for example, is using strong cash flows from its core cost-advantaged commodity businesses to invest in plastics recycling and bio-based chemicals – its Circular and Low Carbon Solutions business – both organically and through M&A. LyondellBasell in August 2024 agreed to acquire full ownership of Germany-based APK which uses solvent-based technology to recycle low density polyethylene (LDPE). Earlier in February, it bought US mechanical recycling operations from PreZero. The company has a goal of producing over 2m tonnes/year of recycled and renewable-based polymers by 2030 and taking 20%+ market share in North America and Europe for these plastics. In the meantime, LyondellBasell is also conducting strategic reviews of six European assets in its Olefins & Polyolefins (O&P) and Intermediates & Derivatives (I&D) segments for potential sale. By the end of the decade, if the company follows through on its strategy, it will look very different from where it is today. Insight article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail photo source: Photo source: Taidgh Barron/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Macroeconomic challenges in China have kept overall sentiment bearish in Asia’s petrochemical markets, but there was a late pick-up in demand for some products just days before a week-long holiday in the country in October. China fresh economic measures stimulate buying in glycerine market Pre-holiday restocking not as strong as expected Outlook bearish for aromatics Initial excitement over China’s new set of economic stimulus appears to be fizzling out based on crude price movement. At midday, Brent crude was down 21 cents at $74.96/bbl, while US crude was down 26 cents at $71.30/bbl, after gaining by more than $1/bbl overnight. China’s measures amid doubts about the world’s second-biggest economy’s ability to achieve its 5% GDP growth target followed the US Federal Reserve’s jumbo 50-basis point (bps) cut in interest rates on 18 September. People’s Bank of China (PBoC) measures announced on 24 September Source: Oxford Economics/China State Council “We believe the recent rapid development in both domestic and external conditions were the major driving forces behind the PBoC’s latest move,” Oxford Economics’ lead economist Betty Wang said in a research note. “Domestically, the weaker-than-expected August economic data suggest that the risk of missing this year’s growth target has grown,” she said. “Externally, the Fed’s outsized rate cuts last week, along with other major central banks’ entering easing mode, has eased the depreciation pressure on the Chinese Yuan and provided the PBoC more room to ease monetary policy,” Wang added. Concerns about the economic health of the world’s two biggest economies have been weighing down on sentiment across the equities and commodities markets. For petrochemicals, a slower-than-expected demand pick-up ahead of China’s October national holidays have further dimmed prospects of market recovery. Petrochemical demand is typically seasonally strong in September, but pre-holiday restocking in China failed to gain momentum during the month until the government announced on 24 September a basket of measures to boost economic activity. In Asia’s refined glycerine market, buyers in China were making enquiries for spot cargoes. Mid-Autumn holidays early last week in China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea had also caused temporary pause in market activities. China’s economy is sputtering amid a property downturn. The sector remained on a slump, with total investments in the industry registering a 10.2% year-on-year decline in January-August 2024, which also weighs down on the construction industry. Property and construction are main downstream industries for petrochemicals. Chinese factories were also in contraction mode for the fourth straight month in August, registering official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings of below the expansion treshold of 50. In the polyethylene (PE) pipe market, major suppliers have maintained firm offers to China on recent gains in upstream crude market, while most downstream converters have completed September procurement and were waiting for October offers. Poor demand had recently sent toluene prices in Asia tumbling to year-to-date lows, while prices of solvents such as ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate (butac) have slumped to multi-year lows. ICIS analyst Jimmy Zhang expects most petrochemical products to post price declines in September, extending the weakness in August, amid declines in upstream crude prices and the overall bearish sentiment. ICIS forecasts that 26 out of the 31 products it tracks to post lower average prices this month, led by paraxylene (PX) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA). Focus article by Jonathan Yee and Pearl Bantillo Additional reporting from Judith Wang, Melanie Wee and Helen Yan Thumbnail image: Lianyungang Port in east China’s Jiangsu Province on 18 September 2024 (Shuttertock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India is expected be a major driver of global long-term oil demand growth through to 2050, alongside the Middle East and Africa, OPEC said in a report. Global oil demand to reach 120.1 million barrels/day in 2050 Petrochemical, road transportation sectors to be key demand drivers Annual average world GDP growth of 2.9% projected for 2023-2050 These regions were identified as the “key sources of incremental [oil] demand in the coming years”, OPEC said in its 2024 World Oil Outlook report released on 24 September. “India alone will add 8 million barrels/day to its oil demand during the forecast period [2023-2050].” OPEC comprises 13 oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s biggest crude oil exporter. Global oil demand is expected to increase by almost 18 million barrels/day, or by 17.5%, from 102.2 million barrels/day in 2023 to 120.1 million barrels/day in 2050. While non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demand is projected to increase by 28 million barrels/day between 2023 and 2050, OECD demand is set to witness a decline. OECD refers to a group of 38 highly industrialized economies. The strong projected demand growth in the petrochemical sector, especially in Asia, will raise oil demand from naphtha production by 2.8 million barrels/day by 2050. The largest incremental demand during the forecast period is projected for the petrochemicals, road transportation and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors in the long term is set to increase by 4.9 million barrels/day; 4.6 million barrels/day; and 4.2 million barrels/day, respectively. “Demand projections in the road transportation sector indicate strong growth over the current decade before stabilizing at levels above 50 million barrels/day for the rest of the forecast period,” OPEC said. “By then, the penetration of EVs [electric vehicles] is set to increasingly play a role.” The global vehicle fleet is projected to surge by about 71% from 1.7 billion in 2023 to 2.9 billion in 2050 with the fastest growth expected in the EVs segment. As for refined products, strong long-term demand growth is expected for ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). “The larger part of this demand growth relates to the use of ethane as a petrochemical feedstock, mainly in OECD Americas and the Middle East,” OPEC added. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS ROBUST Global GDP is projected by OPEC to grow at an average rate of 2.9% per year between 2023 and 2050. Non-OECD countries are set to lead this growth, expanding at an annual rate of 3.7%, while OECD nations will experience more modest annual growth at 1.6%. As a result, in absolute terms the global economy is expected to more than double in size from $165 trillion in 2023 to $358 trillion in 2050. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Crude oil tanker Njord DF, 250m length, 44m height, flag Greece, Baltic Sea, 31 August 2024 (Olaf Krüger/imageBROKER/Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–As another tropical storm churns towards the US, the domestic fertilizer industry was watching cautiously, with those having assets in the potential path of landfall movement beginning to prepare for potential very heavy rains and intense winds upcoming. With its current projection taking it towards the southeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico and a landfall possibly around northern Florida, industry participants were expressing relief that tropical weather would avoid striking the vital New Orleans (Nola) area once again. Late on 24 September Tropical Storm Helene had winds measuring at 50 miles per hours (mph) and was moving west-northwest at 12mph, with forecasters saying it was looking more organized and likely to intensify rapidly. There is some thought this storm has enough forward momentum that it will not stall over land, thereby reduce the duration experienced as it passes. Even though it would begin to diminish once over land the system could still bring some sustained force into the surrounding states, which has agriculture and fertilizer interests within those in areas that include South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee feeling some concern. With operations and facilities in the region Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien said it was staying alert to the ongoing developments on Tropical Storm Helene. “We are actively monitoring the tropical storm system and have comprehensive emergency response plans in place to ensure the safety of our people and operational integrity of our facilities,” said a Nutrien spokesperson. While the storm may not directly strike Tampa, Florida, which is now under a hurricane watch and is a hub of the US fertilizer industry, there could be some major impacts felt, especially if it treks a little more southernly than initially expected. In addition to the port operations there is numerous production, logistics, storage and fertilizer management assets in the Tampa area which can be at risk of damage whenever there is nearby tropical activity. Major producer Mosaic, whose headquarters is in Tampa and has other surrounding operations, did not immediately comment on its storm preparation activities. With the storm likely to not hit until late on 26 September there was a good amount of uncertainty over how severe Helene might turn out to be, with a market participant summing up the overall outlook by saying “we’re cautiously optimistic in Tampa, looks like it’s going to be well east of Nola so no concerns there yet.” Beyond the fertilizer infrastructure and product threatened there is also the potential for even further weather damage to crops this season, with harvest underway on corn and soybeans but also for other crops like cotton and grain sorghum. Across several southeastern states there is acreage which is mature and could be greatly damaged, if not ruined, if the wind levels or rainfall amounts are excessive in the coming days. The wet conditions left afterwards will also limit post-harvest field activities like end of the year fertilizing and could see any fresh demand deferred, possibly even until next spring.