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Crude Oil21-Oct-2024
SIGNAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco chief Amin
Nasser on Monday called for a new energy
transition plan that considers the needs of all
countries, specifically those in Asia and the
broader Global South, amid growing oil demand.
Single one size fits all plan for every
country is unrealistic – Nasser
Transition will be a costly affair, with an
estimated $100-200 trillion required globally
by 2050
World not yet at peak oil demand
“This may be Asia’s century. But Asia’s voice
and priorities, like those of the broader
Global South, are hard to see in current
transition planning, and the whole world is
feeling the consequences,” Nasser, the
President and CEO of Aramco, told delegates at
the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW)
conference in Singapore.
“Transition progress is far slower, far less
equitable, and far more complicated than many
expected… Our main focus should be on the
levers available now.”
Each country needs to choose an energy mix that
helps them meet their climate emissions “at a
speed and a manner that is right for them”,
Nasser said.
Asia, accounting for over half of the world’s
energy supplies, still relies on oil and gas
for 84% of its energy needs. Alternatives are
mostly meeting consumption growth, not
displacing demand for oil and gas, he said.
Furthermore, large segments such as heavy
transportation and petrochemicals have few
economically viable alternatives to oil and
gas.
Instead of forgoing conventional energy, Nasser
encouraged countries to invest in these “proven
and reliable” energy sources that developing
nations need and can afford.
At the same time, the world needs to invest in
technologies that will reduce the cost of
renewables and that can compete in price and
performance.
“We need to provide… energy that is secure,
affordable, and sustainable. You cannot talk
about sustainability without making sure you
ensure security and affordability,” he said.
On energy transition costs, Nasser said:
“Transition will be expensive for everyone,
with estimates of between $100 and $200
trillion required globally by 2050.”
“For developing countries, almost $6 trillion
may be required each year. Moreover, in a
transition that requires staggering amounts of
front-end capital investment, the cost of
capital is more than twice as high in
developing countries where the need is
greater.”
GLOBAL SOUTH OIL DEMAND TO CONTINUE
GROWTH TRAJECTORYEven though oil
growth has plateaued in some mature economies,
such as the EU, the US, and Japan, they still
consume large amounts of oil, Nasser said.
“While US oil consumption is roughly 22 barrels
per person per year, and the EU is around 9
barrels, it is 2.4 barrels in Vietnam, 1.4
barrels in India, and only 1 barrel in Africa,”
Nasser said.
This means that oil demand will continue to
grow in the Global South, he said.
Currently, the world is consuming “record
amounts of oil”, at 100 million barrels, or 80%
of energy, compared to 84% thirty years ago.
More than 100 million barrels per day will
realistically still be required by 2050, a
stark contrast to some predictions that oil
will fall to 25 million barrels per day by
then, Nasser said.
“Being short 75 million barrels every day will
be devastating for energy security and
affordability,” Nasser added.
Focus article by Jonathan Yee
Gas21-Oct-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week
ended 18 October.
China
VAM exports may slow throughout
October
By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Oct-24 16:55 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Persistent increases in China’s vinyl
acetate monomer (VAM) domestic prices have
pushed up spot export offers, dampening buying
interest for Chinese cargoes in Asia this
month.
China
Sept crude imports dips 0.6 on year; down 7.4%
on month
By Fanny Zhang 14-Oct-24 17:51 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s crude oil imports in September
totaled 45.5 million tonnes, down by 0.6% year
on year and lower by 7.4% from the previous
month, official data showed on Monday.
India
Sept inflation at nine-month high; Aug
industrial output shrinks
By Priya Jestin 14-Oct-24 22:46 MUMBAI
(ICIS)–India’s retail inflation hit a
nine-month high of 5.49% in September, mainly
on firmer food prices, while the country’s
industrial output in August shrank for the
first time in 22 months.
Oil
prices fall by more than $3/barrel on abating
Mideast tensions
By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Oct-24 14:57 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Oil prices fell by over $3/barrel on 15
October on moderating concerns over potential
supply disruptions, following news that Israel
may refrain from targeting oil facilities in
Iran.
Asia
fatty alcohols demand to remain firm near term
despite proposed EUDR delay
By Helen Yan 15-Oct-24 16:41 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohol mid-cuts demand is
expected to remain firm in the near term
despite the proposed one-year delay in the
implementation of the EU Deforestation
Regulation (EUDR).
Asian
synthetic rubber discussions in limbo as
buy-sell differences deepen
By Ai Teng Lim 16-Oct-24 13:28 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Spot trade liquidity for Asian spot
imports of various synthetic rubbers, from
styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR), polybutadiene
rubber (PBR) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber
(NBR), are tapering amid widening differences
in near-term pricing outlook between buyers and
sellers.
Asia
BG demand expected to stay weak in Q4
By Joy Foo 17-Oct-24 13:22 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The gap between China and southeast
Asia butyl glycol (BG) import markets narrowed
in October as lackluster demand has weighed
down southeast Asia’s import discussions.
India
petrochemicals demand subdued pre-Diwali; weak
rupee effects unclear
By Jonathan Yee 18-Oct-24 13:00 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–India’s petrochemicals demand is losing
momentum, hindered by the prolonged monsoon
season, economic uncertainty, and volatile
crude prices.
Ammonia18-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Green hydrogen company Ohmium
International, a green hydrogen company
announced it has signed a term sheet with
renewable energy joint venture SwitcH2 BV to
develop electrolyzer solutions for an offshore
floating green hydrogen and ammonia synthesis
project.
Ohmium designs and manufactures scalable proton
exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, which it
touts as enabling cost-competitive green
hydrogen production, and under this agreement
they will develop PEM electrolyzer solutions
for the offshore project to be led by SwitcH2.
Ohmium’s PEM electrolyzers will utilise
nearshore solar and wind power, along with
treated seawater, to produce green hydrogen.
The hydrogen will be fed into an on-deck
ammonia synthesis unit, and the resulting
product will eventually be offloaded onto an
ammonia carrier for transport.
The project will be located off southern Europe
and create an industrial scale floating green
hydrogen and ammonia production facility with
an estimated an annual production capacity of
up to 55,000 tonnes of green hydrogen and
almost 300,000 short tons of green ammonia.
Officials said the project is anticipated to
have green ammonia production by 2029.
“We are pleased to have Ohmium join us in
making this pioneering project possible,” said
Bob Rietveldt, SwitcH2’s director and
co-founder.
“Their product delivers high efficiency, and
the comprehensive, standardized design enables
flexible and rapid installation, at scale.”
Ohmium CEO Arne Ballantine said the company was
thrilled to be part of what it called a
transformative project and that they appreciate
the expertise that SwitcH2 brings to offshore
floating production.
“The market for green ammonia is poised to grow
exponentially in the coming decades, especially
as a source of clean fuel for the global
shipping industry, and Ohmium is looking
forward to collaborating with SwitcH2 in
helping address that need,” said Ballantine.
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Nylon18-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ascend Performance Materials
plans to shut down its remaining operations
Greenwood, South Carolina, and move the site’s
polymer production to its complex in Pensacola,
Florida, US-based nylon producer said on
Friday.
The Greenwood site produces nylon 6,6 products
based on monomers made from its other
locations. The site makes nylon 6,6 polymer
chips for textiles, bulk continuous filament
(BCF) fiber for carpets, as well as industrial
fibres for high-tenacity and technical fiber
applications such as tire yarn and airbags.
In January 2024, Ascend said it would end
industrial fiber spinning operations in
Greenwood. By early 2025, it will end all other
operations in Greenwood.
Earlier on Friday, Ascend confirmed that
was laying off workers at its Pensacola complex
in the face of lower demand for automobiles,
housing and consumer goods, a global trend that
has persisted for the past two years. It did
not specify the number of people who were laid
off.
Thumbnail Photo: Nylon. (By
Shutterstock)
Isocyanates18-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Despite a housing crisis in many
of its cities, Germany’s new residential
housing continues to decline.
Permits fall
Building decline hurts economy
Benefits from interest rate cuts have not
yet kicked in
Residential construction permits continued to
fall in August, according to the latest data by
the country’s federal statistics agency on
Friday:
Permits fell 6.8% year on year to just
18,300 in August.
For the first eight months, permits were
141,900 – down 19.3% year on year from 175,800
in the year-earlier period.
Permits already fell sharply last year. Before
2023, they averaged 240,000/year, but even that
was low compared with a government target,
announced in 2022, of
400,000 new dwellings each year, construction
industry officials said.
TRADE GROUPS
Construction industry trade group BFW
Bundesverband Freier Immobilien- und
Wohnungsunternehmen said that the situation in
building and construction was “precarious”, not
only for builders but for the overall economy.
About 6.6 million jobs were linked to building
and construction, a sector that was as
important as the auto industry for the
country’s overall economy, the group said.
Residential construction “is the key to
economic growth in many other industries,” BFW
said, adding that the government needed to act
decisively to stop the sector’s “crash”.
Another group, Zentralverband Deutsches
Baugewerbe (ZDB), said that despite government
measures, residential housing was not improving
The construction industry hopes that the
government will take additional measures after
a “residential construction summit”
(Wohnungsgipfel) scheduled to be held in
Hamburg in December, ZDB added.
A third trade group, Hauptverband der Deutschen
Bauindustrie (HDB), was also pessimistic.
Permits have now been falling for 28 months and
pretty much everything that needed to be said
about the decline has been said, HDB noted.
The industry had made many suggestions to
government to turn things around, with no
effect, it added.
INTEREST RATES
Munich-based economic research group ifo said
that the interest rate cuts by
the European Central Bank (ECB) have not yet
had any impact on Germany’s residential
housing.
Instead, interest rates on loans for households
for residential construction remain high, the
group said.
In ifo’s September survey of residential
construction, 52.9% of building and
construction companies reported that order
shortages worsened, compared with August.
In a positive development, however, fewer
orders were canceled than in August.
The overall business climate in residential
construction ticked up month on month, but “it
would be going too far to speak of a glimmer of
hope,” ifo said, adding, “The situation in
residential construction remains serious.”
According to German chemical producers’ trade
group VCI, domestic chemical sales into the
construction sector fell 3.9% year on year in
the January-August period.
The housing market is a key consumer of
chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of
chemicals, resins and derivative products, such
as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and
coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among
many others.
Please also visit the ICIS
construction topic page and also
visit Macroeconomics: Impact on
Chemicals.
Thumbnail photo source: ZDB
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate18-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor for recycling,
Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments
in the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
No signs of single-use plastics
directive-related pick-up in demand
Prices stable across all markets
Lack of clarity on single-use plastics
directive measures and penalties a key issue
Ethylene18-Oct-2024
XIAMEN, China (ICIS)–With 2025 contract
discussions underway for Asia ethylene (C2),
ICIS markets editor Josh Quah outlines the top
concerns of industry players as they look ahead
to the coming year.
Players may take steps to hedge against
unpredictability of deep-sea cargoes
China’s long domestic supply may not yet
boost exports by much
Producers keen on ethane to be part of
cracker feedstock slate
Speciality Chemicals18-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Construction output in the
eurozone and EU marginally increased in August
from the previous month, according to official
data on Friday.
Seasonally adjusted production in construction
was up by 0.1% in the eurozone and by 0.4% in
the wider EU.
Building and specialized construction activity
were higher in both blocs, while civil
engineering output was lower, statistics agency
Eurostat said in a statement.
Construction activity for July was revised
down, with a monthly fall of 0.5% in the
eurozone and by 0.3% in the EU. Eurostat had
initially reported largely flat output
in both.
On a year-on-year basis, August construction
output fell by 2.5% the eurozone and by
2.4% in the EU.
Numerous petrochemicals and specialty chemicals
are key ingredients in products used
for modern
construction, including adhesives,
ad-mixtures, sealants, coatings, paints,
flooring, insulation and water proofing.
Crude Oil18-Oct-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic growth
continued to lose steam, slowing to 4.6%
year-on-year in the third quarter, down from
4.7% in the previous quarter, the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Friday.
For the first nine months, growth stood at
4.8%.
The slowdown was anticipated, driven by
persistent weakness in demand and the
struggling property sector.
In response, Beijing has ramped up stimulus
measures since late September, underscoring
concerns about the economy’s trajectory.
Achieving the targeted 5% GDP growth for 2024
remains a significant challenge for Beijing,
according to analysts.
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