News library

Subscribe to our full range of breaking news and analysis

Viewing 1-10 results of 57820
BLOG: China’s C2 and C3 capacity in 2025 forecast to be 121% and 179% more than local demand
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. One of the arguments still doing the rounds out there is that this year will mark the turning point as global petrochemicals operating rates, margins and spreads recover. As they say, good luck with that idea. As today’s blog discusses in detail: In 2024 over 2023, China’s ethylene capacity exceeding local demand is estimated to have fallen by 1.6m tonnes. But in 2025 compared with 2024, it is forecast to increase by 6.3m tonnes to an all-time high of 11.5m tonnes. This would represent a year-on-year increase of 121%. Actual capacity is due to increase by 9m tonnes in 2025 over 2024, the biggest annual increase on record. Propylene oversupply is far worse reflecting the several routes to make propylene other than just the steam cracker – the only major route to produce ethylene. In 2024 over 2023, propylene capacity exceeding demand was at 2.7m tonnes. This year compared with 2024 oversupply is expected to reach 7.4m tonnes. Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to total 20.3m tonnes in 2025, 179% higher than in 2024. Annual capacity is due to increase by 9.6m tonnes in 2025 or 2024, which would again by the biggest annual increase on record. China’s global shares of capacity exceeding demand are also forecast to jump in 2025 as it overtakes all the other regions. One saving grace might be that increased trade protectionism prevents China from exporting its surplus ethylene and propylene molecules, either directly as derivatives or indirectly as packaging for or components of finished goods. This might create more regional markets and force China to delay start-ups. But it seems more likely to me that there will just be a shuffling of the pack as more Chinese manufacturing moves offshore to bypass tariffs. You might think that the other “get out of jail for free” card will be a rebound in Chinese domestic demand. Again, good luck with that idea because of the end of the real estate bubble and China’s demographics crisis. So, here is another prediction for 2025: Global petrochemicals operating rates, spreads and margins will decline versus last year because for the scale of China’s capacity additions and the country’s continued ability to export its excess molecules, either directly or indirectly. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
PODCAST: Moldova considers response to end of Russian transit
LONDON (ICIS)–On 1 January 2025, Russia stopped gas supplies to Transnistria after failing to make alternative arrangements to deliver gas to the province on the left bank of the river Nistru. Although Moldova, on the right bank, has diversified its gas portfolio away from Russian imports, it still depends on electricity produced in Transnistria using gas from Russia, resulting in a shift to the supply-demand balance of the area, while risking further power and gas shortages across the region. ICIS energy market expert Aura Sabadus speaks with Sergiu Lica and Eugeniu Bot, heads of natural gas and electricity departments respectively at the Moldovan state wholesaler Energocom, to discuss the options that are available to stave off tightness in supply over winter and beyond.
Americas top stories: weekly summary
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 3 January. OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. SHIPPING: Union dockworkers, ports to resume negotiations ahead of 15 Jan deadline Union dockworkers and representatives for US Gulf and East Coast ports are expected to resume negotiations on a new master contract on 7 January, just more than a week ahead of the 15 January deadline. OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market.

Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)

See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.

Latin America stories: weekly summary
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 3 January. NEWSBrazil’s manufacturing loses steam as new orders slow at home and abroadGrowth in Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors slowed down considerably in December on the back of lower new orders and households’ squeezed budgets on rising inflation and high borrowing costs, analysts at S&P Global said on Thursday. Brazil economists expect weaker real, higher interest rates in 2025Brazilian economists surveyed by the central bank do not expect the depreciation in the real in past weeks to stay for much of 2025, with interest rates consequently expected at nearly 15%. Mexico manufacturing sector ends 2024 in contraction on domestic, overseas woesMexico’s petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sector concluded 2024 in contraction on the back of lower new orders and acute woes in the export-intensive automotive sector, analysts at S&P Global said on Thursday. Colombia manufacturing falls into contraction on China competition, squeezed consumersColombia’s petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sector fell into contraction at the end of 2024 as consumers’ squeezed pockets put a dent in demand and competition from Chinese products increased, analysts at S&P Global said on Thursday. Chile’s manufacturing up 1.9% in November, industrial output 1.7% higherChile’s petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors posted output growth of 1.9% in November, year on year, the country’s statistical office INE said on Tuesday. Argentina’s YPF high crude production costs offset by stable operations, growing output – Fitch YPF remains one of the country’s economic hopes for coming years, with output and exports expected to grow, but Argentina’s state-owned energy major’s production costs remain higher than regional peers, US credit rating Fitch said on Friday. Argentina’s YPF divests lubricants subsidiary in Brazil to UsiquimicaArgentina’s state-owned oil and gas major YPF has signed an agreement to sell its Brazilian lubricants subsidiary to local chemicals producer Usiquimica. PRICINGLatAm PE prices unchanged on weak market activityDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as unchanged across Latin American countries. LatAm PP prices stable on muted market activityDomestic and international polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed unchanged across Latin American countries. Unigel seeks January PS price increase in BrazilUnigel has announced a 15% price increase, excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil, as of 2 January 2025, according to a customer letter. Innova announces January PS price increase in BrazilInnova has announced a 15% price increase, excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil, effective 1 January 2025, according to a customer letter.
Eurozone economy continues to stagnate, with PMI showing bullish services offset by soft manufacturing
BARCELONA (ICIS)–The Eurozone economy continues to be troubled, with new purchasing manager indices (PMIs) showing a slight overall deterioration as a strong services performance was offset by poor manufacturing at the end of the year. The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI for December 2024 indicated a marginal decline in the eurozone economy, with the Output Index at 49.6, up from November’s 48.3 but still below the 50 mark which separates expansion from contraction. ​ The Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 51.6 from 49.5, showing a modest recovery in the sector, while manufacturing continued to decline sharply. ​ The eurozone faced sustained declines in new business and employment, with inflationary pressures intensifying. ​ Despite this, business confidence improved to a three-month high. ​ Germany, France and Italy all saw reductions in business activity, with France performing the worst. ​ However, Spain and Ireland expanded, with Spain’s private sector output growing at the fastest pace since March 2023. ​ New orders in the eurozone fell for a seventh consecutive month, driven by a significant drop in factory sales, while services saw a slight increase in new business. ​ Export demand also decreased, continuing a near three-year decline. ​ Employment fell in December, with the manufacturing sector driving job losses, while services saw a fractional increase in headcount. ​ Despite lower staffing, companies reduced their work-in-hand volumes. ​Price pressures accelerated with input costs rising at the fastest pace since July, particularly in the services sector, leading to higher output charge inflation. ​ Business sentiment improved, with growth expectations for the coming year reaching a three-month high, although it is still below the historical average. ​ Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that services inflation remains high, likely due to rising wages, and suggested cautious monetary policy with small interest rate cuts in early 2025. ​ He highlighted that while the service sector showed resilience, the overall economic outlook remains fragile, with industrial weakness posing a risk. ​ The economist added, “Service providers have maintained their confidence, with future business prospects largely positive and even improving in December, despite the index measuring sentiment being below the long-term average.”
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 3 January. Europe PX demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid downstream rationalizations, imports Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is expected to continue in the first half of 2025 due to the rationalization of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in the region. Europe PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing for stagnant market The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing. Europe BDO demand pessimism to continue under the gloom of rising capacities in China There is a growing sense of apathy among players in the European butanediol (BDO) market when it comes to discussing demand hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations of an uptick and there is a prevalence of worry ahead of growing capacity in China in an already oversupplied market. Europe PP players eye pain points from old plants, tariff threats and limp manufacturing 2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different for Europe’s polypropylene (PP) market.
Asia top stories – weekly summary
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 3 January. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to balloon on capacity expansion By Hwee Hwee Tan 30-Dec-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip demand on the back of China’s significant capacity growth into 2025, prompting producers to review regional plant run rates and supply contracts. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on upbeat note By Angeline Soh 31-Dec-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia are expected to start the new year on an upbeat note after festivity-driven trades, amid caution about possible tariffs on exports to the US. OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts in Q1 By Helen Yan 02-Jan-25 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts in Asia are expected to tussle over the market’s trajectory in the first quarter of 2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) prices. Singapore Q4 economy grows 4.3%; whole-year GDP rises 4.0% By Jonathan Yee 02-Jan-25 11:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s GDP rose 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, supported by an increase in public sector construction output, official advance estimates showed on Thursday. S Korea GDP forecast cut amid political uncertainty, trade headwinds By Nurluqman Suratman 02-Jan-25 14:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s finance ministry on 2 January slashed the country’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from a previous projection of 2.6% amid growing domestic demand and trade uncertainties. OUTLOOK ’25: Asia methanol demand still uncertain amid new capacities By Damini Dabholkar 03-Jan-25 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to be uncertain, with factors such as additional capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming downstream demand expected to play a role in this.
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates surge as port strike deadline looms; tanker rates flat to softer
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US surged this week as the deadline to avoid a strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports nears, while rates for liquid chemical tankers were flat to softer as ship owners await contract nominations. CONTAINER RATES Global average rates for shipping container rose by 3% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry, with rates to both US coasts topping that. The following chart from Drewry shows rates from Shanghai to New York rose by 6% and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose by 7%. Drewry expects rates on the transpacific trade to rise in the coming week, driven by front-loading ahead of the looming International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port strike in January and the anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said rates could continue to be pressured higher by January general rate increases (GRIs) from ship owners and from increased volumes ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. “Pre-Lunar New Year demand will combine with higher-than-normal volumes for this time of year into the US,” Levine said. “And the post Lunar New Year dip in volumes will likely be less pronounced than usual too as many US shippers continue to frontload ahead of expected tariff increases.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. A strike could have a direct impact on US PE exports. Year-to-date through November, PE exports accounted for 46.6% of overall PE sales with an average of 2.4 billion lb/month. Through October, 73% of seaborne US PE exports utilized ports that are facing the work stoppage threat. LIQUID TANKER RATES US chemical tanker freight rates held steady for most trade lanes this week, with only a few exceptions. Commentary was quiet again this week amid the start of the new year as most players are still on extended holidays. However, the USG to Brazil and West Coast India is starting 2025 off slightly lower. From the USG to India, there has been a slow start to the new year with limited activity on the market. There is some prompt space available for few prospects to fill. A broker said that most contract of affreightment (COA) charterers are or have been nominating their cargoes to move in January, while the spot market is virtually nonexistent. However, this does not mean that putting a ship on berth would be cheap. Sentiment for this route is slightly down, as some owners with partial space available are not able to reach full cargo currently. From the USG to Rotterdam, rates are facing some downward pressure in the new year compared to where they were at the end of December. It is likely that the market will pick back up in the next couple of weeks. Freight rates remain steady and will likely stay unchanged for the beginning of the year. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Harrison Jacoby
SHIPPING: Union dockworkers, ports to resume negotiations ahead of 15 Jan deadline
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Union dockworkers and representatives for US Gulf and East Coast ports are expected to resume negotiations on a new master contract on 7 January, just more than a week ahead of the 15 January deadline. Meanwhile, global container shipping major Maersk is encouraging customers to pick up laden containers and return empty containers at US East and Gulf Coast ports before 15 January to help mitigate any potential disruptions at the terminals. Global container shipping major Hapag-Lloyd will implement US port strike surcharges on 20 January, the same day that President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated. All these factors are keeping upward price pressure on Asia-US container rates. ILA PORT STRIKE An October strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing dockworkers, was paused after three days when an agreement on wages was reached with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), representing the ports. The parties set a 15 January deadline to negotiate the remaining issues – the key one being the implementation of automation at the ports. The union has criticized semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs) for eliminating jobs and posing national security risks in a post on its website, while the USMX responded, defending automation as essential for port modernization and addressing land constraints. In a 12 December post on social media, President-elect Donald Trump expressed his support for dockworkers in the labor dispute. The Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), an industry trade group, is urging both sides to push back the deadline, pointing to economic impacts felt after the short work stoppage in October. INCREASED TARIFFS Adding to shipping issues at the start of 2025 are possible tariff increases on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, as proposed by Trump. Trump has announced his intent to levy increased tariffs, primarily on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, including a high tariff rate of up to 60% against Chinese goods. Analysts at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta said that US importers who have goods or materials that can be stored and have access to warehousing likely have been bolstering their inventories, which could then be followed by a pause. A surge of imports ahead of possible tariffs would put upward pressure on rates. For recyclers with outbound materials, that could affect how and whether they can find empty containers, Xeneta said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Focus article by Adam Yanelli Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock
  • 1 of 5782

Contact us

Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on independent and reliable data, insight and analytics.

Contact us to learn how we can support you as you transact today and plan for tomorrow.