SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Grupo Almatia continues seeking expansions outside its Colombian domestic market as the medium-term economic prospects and the government’s fiscal policy cast a shadow, according to the CFO at the chemicals distributor, formerly known as Quimico Plasticos. Jose Andres Toro added his voice to the many which, in the past week, have showed great concern about Colombia’s government decision to exercise an “escape” clause which allows for the so-called fiscal rule to be lifted in extraordinary circumstances. In a pre-election year and with the public finances offering little margin for the left-leaning government of Gustavo Petro to fulfill its promises to expand the welfare state, the cabinet has now decided to exercise a rule which is meant to be used in public emergencies or calamities. Chemicals sources and industrial groups have said companies’ borrowing costs could rise sharply if those costs for Colombia’s sovereign also rise, as expected, while the trade group representing plastics, Acoplastics, said in an interview with ICIS the fiscal issues were coming to add issues to an industry already under pressure due to China’s competition. But Almatia’s CFO described frustration with government spending increases because, in theory, they should have improved public services but, he said, that the spending programs have been unable to deliver tangible benefits to citizens. “It’s already proven it’s not making social investments. It’s not doing anything with that money; instead, what it’s doing is creating bureaucracy, creating jobs in the public sector,” said Toro. “In the province where we are based, Antioquia, the situation has become particularly acute. National projects with state funding have been abandoned by the government and we Antioquians reached into our pockets and are financing the projects ourselves, with our own resources, through the provincial government.” Beyond fiscal concerns, the company faces challenges from inflation and dramatically rising transportation costs affecting grassroots workers, said Toro, highlighting how gasoline subsidy removals have pushed fuel prices up by approximately 50%, far outpacing general inflation rates of 5-7%. “Transportation costs have risen much more than the average inflation rate because the government began to remove a subsidy that gasoline used to have. For someone who travels every day on the subway or the bus, those costs are multiplied,” he said. “With domestic growth stagnating at 2-3% annually, while inflation runs at around 5%, real economic performance is declining. In real terms, we’re not growing. We’re stagnant,” he said. Toro said a good example of Colombia’s issues would be the construction sector, where the downturn has proved especially acute, casting a shadow to the rest of the economy given that real estate is a sector of sectors, with many associated industries depending on it, not least the many plastics which Almatia sells to be used in multiple applications going into construction. Facing domestic market challenges, Grupo Almatia is slowly but decisively pursuing expansions across Latin American countries, said Toro. For now, the company has set up operations in markets close to Colombia because the majority of its facilities are there, and from them it delivers to other markets such as Ecuador, Peru, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic. CHINA COMPETITION: GOOD OR BAD?The executive detailed how Chinese suppliers have become increasingly competitive across chemical markets, though not to the exclusion of other international competitors, and conceded many of Almatia’s materials come from that country. China has been under fire for some time due to its “dumping” – selling industrial products at below production costs in overseas markets, just to dump excess products China does not need, which has hit producers hard in other, non-state-controlled economies which cannot compete with China’s heavily subsidized companies. “We’ve been working with several suppliers for several years, and they compete here like any other, like the Koreans, the Americans, the Arabs. For instance, in TiO2 [titanium dioxide], Chinese pricing remains competitive against Western suppliers without creating insurmountable advantages [for the Chinese],” said Toro. “Chinese prices are competitive compared to those coming from outside the West, but they’re not so markedly different that those from the West can’t compete. We import from 20 countries, and obviously prioritize the most competitive supply sources.” All in all, Toro conceded there are concerning price dynamics taking place currently in the petrochemicals industry, dynamics which could end up hitting all sides of the market if not corrected. “In PP [polypropylene] markets, for instance, monomer prices around $750-770/tonne should theoretically support resin prices near $980-990/tonne in regional markets,” said Toro. “However, freight and production costs don’t support these economics, suggesting either advantageous raw material sourcing or unsustainable pricing. And this pricing pressure affects non-integrated PP producers globally.” This interview took place on 16 June. Front page picture: A warehouse operated by Grupo Almatia in Antioquia, Colombia  Picture source: Grupo Almatia  Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

Auction for Route 1 capacity from Greece to Ukraine held on 23 June Regulator RAE expected to approve Greek VTP entry to ensure fair access terms Vertical Corridor will be long-term diversification solution for SEE LONDON (ICIS)– Traders expecting to export gas from Greece to Ukraine as part of a superbundled capacity product may be able to secure volumes from the domestic virtual trading point (VTP) rather than restricted entry points, Maria Rita Galli, CEO of the Greek gas transmission system operator, DESFA told ICIS in an interview. She said the five TSOs offering the product were looking to offer maximum flexibility on Route 1, as the bundled discounted capacity product spanning five south-east European countries will be offered for monthly auctions on the Regional Booking Platform (RBP) on 23 June. The CEO said she anticipated high interest, as over 200 stakeholders took part in a call with the five operators from Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine on 19 June. The capacity will be offered at a discounted rate on a temporary basis and companies could secure up to 90 million cubic meters monthly from Greece for exports to Ukraine. ROUTE 1 INCENTIVES The product excludes entry or exit into networks along the route, which allows them to bypass issues related to misalignment of gas quality among the five countries, which had been blocking companies from exporting gas from the Romanian VTP to Ukraine, for example. A regional trader told ICIS that under the Route 1 product, companies will not be expected to request a licence to use the Romanian transmission system. “For the first time in the history of post-Russian gas flows via Romania, Transgaz [the Romanian gas grid operator] does not require shippers to get a licence for transit,” the trader said. Although the route from Greece to Ukraine has large bidirectional capacity, it has been largely unused because of limited capacity offered by some operators and high transmission tariffs. A study published by Austrian-based consultancy WECOM on 19 June shows that it currently costs on average €9.65/MWh to book capacity at individual borders points along the Greece-Ukraine route. However, market sources say the bundled discounted Route 1 could cost around €7.5 – €8.00/MWh. CONCERNS Despite the attraction of cheaper tariffs, some companies had concerns the product may not be compliant with the provisions of the EU’s network codes. However, Sotirios Bravos, Desfa’s Chief Commercial Officer, said the arrangement was not a derogation from the codes but came ‘on top’ of their provisions. He said the volumes that would be auctioned would be relatively small and would not impinge on regional competition. “Ukraine needs additional volumes to fill their underground storage estimated between four to five billion cubic meters by the start of the heating season,” Bravos said. “If we look at other borders [with Ukraine] we see the capacity is oversubscribed. The quarterly capacity for July, August, September on the Hungarian-Ukrainian border was 400% higher than its reserve price,” he added. FAIR PLAYING FIELD He echoed the CEO’s views that the product would not discriminate against companies, and added that access to the Greek VTP, subject to pending approval by the regulator RAE this week, would create a level playing field for all participants. In the initial proposal, Route 1 restricted access to only a number of entry points in the domestic Greek system, which would have ensured that the gas shipped to Ukraine was of non-Russian origin. The EU is now working to introduce a ban on the import of spot and long-term Russian gas between 2026 and 2028. Galli said: “We are not in 2026 yet. I think when the ban is operational there will be no Russian gas on the VTP. As of today, we cannot physically exclude it,” she added. She said Greece was expecting to boost its interconnection capacity from 5.3billion cubic meters annual to 8.5bcm/year at the end of 2026. Nevertheless, Greece is set to make a major contribution to regional supply diversification thanks to its LNG terminals at Revithousa and Alexandroupolis as well as access to Caspian gas reaching the country via the Southern Gas Corridor. Although Route 1 is initially expected to be offered on a temporary basis to help Ukraine meet its storage needs this summer, Galli expects the full Trans-Balkan route, also known as the Vertical Gas Corridor, to become the backbone of an integrated south-east European gas market in the longer-term.

LONDON (ICIS)–The European Parliament and Council have provisionally agreed changes to simplify the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The streamlined regulation adopts a new “de minimis” mass threshold of 50 tonnes, which will exempt most importers who import only small quantities of CBAM goods, such as SMEs and individuals. At the same time, environmental objectives would remain achievable because 99% of total CO2 emissions from imports of iron, steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizers would still be covered by the rules. MEPs voted in favour of the new CBAM regulation in May and it was provisionally agreed between the European Parliament and Council on Wednesday this week, 18 June. The European Parliament and Council must now formally adopt the package before it can enter into force, which would be 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU.

LONDON (ICIS)–Renewable methyl 9-decenoate (9-DAME), to be produced at Verbio’s upcoming ethenolysis plant in Germany, could be an opportunity for the oleochemicals industry, a Verbio executive told ICIS. With 9-DAME, the industry could access palm-free C10 derivatives in consumer products that are typically derived from palm kernel oil (PKO), Marc Siegel, Verbio’s head of sales, Specialty Chemicals and Catalysts, said in an interview. “9-DAME chemicals could offer alternatives for an important fraction in the oleochem industry,” he added. Verbio’s plant at the Bitterfeld chemical site in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state is expected to start up in 2026, using rapeseed oil methyl ester as feedstock, It will have capacities for 32,000 tonnes/year of methyl 9-decenoate (9-DAME), and for 17,000 tonnes/year of 1-decene. 9-DAME is a valuable platform molecule enabling a multitude of products, Siegel said. It will enable customers to produce C10 fatty acids or alcohols, allowing them to make their own C10 derivatives with high purity, he said. As such, Verbio’s production capacity of 32,000 tonnes/year of 9-DAME could replace PKO and “represents significant potential in the oleochemicals industry for the C10 value chain”, he said. PKO, for its part, is controversial because of the environmental impacts of palm oil plantations, Siegel said. Furthermore, the availability of PKO is limited globally at about 6.2 million tonnes/year, and its C10 content is only about 3-3.5%, he said. By using 9-DAME to make C10 fatty acids or alcohols, customers would avoid the complex supply chains of PKO from Asia, with its price fluctuations. They would also reduce their carbon footprint, and they could put palm-free and GMO-free labels on their shampoos and other products, he said. Siegel added that coconut oil is another source of C10 derivatives. However, coconut oil is typically more expensive than PKO, and its global production volumes are lower, he said. Asked about 9-DAME pricing, Siegel said: “We feel to have a solid position in the market with attractive pricing” and “strong unique selling propositions”, including palm-free claims and regional European sourcing. As Verbio’s project is nearing completion, the environment for renewable chemicals and recycling has become challenging in North America whereas in Europe “there are many positive examples” of new projects for bio-based chemicals, supported by the European Green Deal and other regulations, Siegel said. “Verbio remains positive about increasing demand [for renewable chemicals] in Europe and other regions,” he said. “Many European projects continue to thrive”, he added. In North America, however, the situation is “less dynamic”, with some companies scaling back operations (Origin Materials in Canada) or facing funding losses (Eastman in Texas), Siegel noted. Verbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction at Bitterfeld, Germany; Source: Verbio

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained its key interest rate – the seven-day reverse repurchase rate – steady at 5.50% on 18 June, pausing its monetary easing stance as it prioritizes currency stability. The central bank also left overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 4.75% and 6.25%, respectively, citing global economic conditions and rupiah (Rp) safeguarding. Firm interest rates lend support to currencies. Nonetheless, Indonesia’s central bank hinted at rate cuts later this year to boost economic growth amid tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Indonesia is southeast Asia’s biggest economy and is a major importer of petrochemicals amid strong demand and limited local production. The country is expected to post a GDP growth of 4.6-5.4% this year, according to BI’s forecasts. “At home, economic growth in Indonesia must be strengthened constantly against a backdrop of global uncertainty caused by US tariff policy and geopolitical tensions,” the central bank stated. “Economic activity in the second quarter of 2025 indicated improvements in terms of non-oil and gas export performance due to the frontloading of exports bound for the US as an anticipatory response by exporters to US tariff policy,” it added. Household consumption and investment must be strengthened as sources of economic growth, the central bank said. “We believe the macro environment remains well-positioned for BI to cut rates later this year to support economic growth, following a slowdown in first quarter GDP to 4.9% year-on-year, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter,” Dutch banking and financial service firm ING said in a research note. “The deceleration was primarily driven by weaker investment activity, reflecting heightened uncertainty surrounding tariff policies,” it said. The government’s $1.5 billion worth stimulus may help stabilize consumption in the near term but is unlikely to spur a meaningful recovery in capital expenditure, ING noted. “Looking ahead, while the sustainability of large inflows into Indonesian bonds remains uncertain due to persistent fiscal risks, the broader USD ($) weakening trend should offer support,” it said. “In this context, BI may use windows of currency strength to cut rates more opportunistically,” ING said. ($1 = Rs16,382) Additional reporting by Pearl Bantillo Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The global petrochemicals downturn could potentially stretch to 2028, but the years-long crisis due to overcapacities may leave a lasting mark – lower for longer margins, according to a chemicals analyst at credit rating agency Fitch. Marcelo Pappiani, Fitch’s main analyst for Brazil’s petrochemicals, said that potentially lower spreads post-crisis, compared to the averages prior to the current downturn, could have deep financial implications for petrochemicals companies and their ability to borrow and/or invest. The analyst reminded how he started covering Brazil’s chemicals for Fitch in 2022 – at the time, the nascent downturn was expected to be a traditional downcycle lasting around two years, three at most. In an interview with ICIS in 2023, the analyst said the downturn could last to 2025. In another interview in 2024, he did not want to put an end date to what was already looking like a half-decade-long crisis, and warned that despite protectionist measures in Brazil, chemicals producers were far from being out of the woods. MARGINS LONG TERMFast forwarding to current times, Fitch is forecasting the downturn to last until 2028 as China’s relentless start-up of new capacities, while not having the domestic demand for them, will continue putting Chinese products in all corners of the world at very competitive prices. “We now expect the downcycle to last a bit longer, probably until 2028, because we are still seeing and probably will continue to see for a while some prices at the bottom. I have heard some industry players put the end to the downturn in 2030 – we will need to see, but indeed the end date for it has had to be pushed back several times already,” said Pappiani. “This is the most prolonged downcycle most companies have been through. And what we are trying to figure out here is, upon recovery, when spreads return to mid-cycle, are they going to be at the same level they were before?” The analyst went on to explain his theory by looking at a key financial metric in a company’s performance: the ratio earnings/debt. The higher the ratio, the more effort a company needs to focus on deleveraging; therefore, capital expenditure (capex) and other long-term productivity measures can suffer. “Post-crisis, are companies expecting to have the same levels of earnings and leverage than they were running before this turmoil? This is the million-dollar question. Those metrics will eventually recover from the current crisis-hit numbers, but I doubt it will be at the same levels as before. Some companies still think the market will recover to where it was: I don’t seem to agree much, but let’s see.” HOW TO DEAL WITH CHINAThe current downturn, closely linked to China’s state-driven economic policies, presents companies from market economies with many challenges they have not been able to overcome yet. The situation which has brought the petrochemicals industry to its knees is clear. China’s state-supported companies are just producing for the sake of employment and social stability – so the system does not feel threatened – over profitability, which is what drives competitors in most other countries.  “The market is always saying about how companies need to rationalize – shut down plants that are not profitable and the likes. But what’s rational for us here in the West might not be rational for people in China, where they are more concerned about employment, for instance,” said Pappiani. “But the point is that the amount of rationalization we have already seen hasn’t been enough to compensate for this oversupply. Meanwhile, domestically, the Chinese government doesn’t seem to be concerned too concerned today about that [high levels of indebtedness and the burden that will put on future generations of Chinese citizens].” Pappiani went on to say that long term, the petrochemicals sector will eventually balance out simply because the world’s growing population will continue devouring plastics and petrochemicals-derived materials. “Despite the current overcapacity challenges, plastics and chemical products will remain fundamental to the global economy. Together with ammonia for agriculture, cement for construction, and crude oil, plastic resins rank among the world’s most critical materials,” said the Fitch analyst. “This structural dependency on plastic materials continues growing and seems set to continue doing so, despite sustainability concerns and as environmental considerations gain prominence.” Front page picture source: Fitch Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

US investors in talks to overturn sanctions related to Russian gas supply corridors Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 corridors would theoretically displace 110 billion cubic meters of alternative gas supplies Talks continue, but significant political, regulatory, technical hurdles remain LONDON (ICIS)–High-profile investors with links to US president Donald Trump’s family have been in talks to lift US sanctions against the Nord Stream corridor while snapping up stakes in other pipeline networks used to ship Russian gas to Europe, four sources familiar with discussions told ICIS. The talks follow reports last month that the owners of Nord Stream 2 AG, a Swiss-registered company overseeing the construction and operation of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, had reached a deal to restructure its debt and pay small-scale creditors. Bringing Nord Stream into operation would entail clearing significant political, regulatory and technical hurdles. Despite this, sources close to the EU and US Congress interviewed by ICIS say investors are positioning themselves for a post-war scenario where a settlement agreement is reached for Ukraine and Russian gas exports to return. Three of the four subsea Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany were damaged in 2022 and would need heavy repairs to be brought back into use. The fourth line, built as part of Nord Stream 2, is thought to be intact but would require maintenance before becoming operational. The resumption of full flows on the four Nord Stream pipelines would displace as much as 110 billion cubic meters of alternative gas supplies and eliminate the need for other Nordic, Baltic or southern European transport routes to emerge. US sanctions introduced five years ago ban individuals from selling, leasing or providing vessels engaging in pipe-laying or services to the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 pipelines. Yet sources say Stephen Lynch, a Republican donor and Miami-based investor with experience in acquiring distressed Russian assets, had paid off the Nord Stream debt and was actively lobbying European and US policymakers for the lifting of sanctions. INTERMEDIARIES One of the individuals Lynch has been in talks with is Texas businessman Gentry Beach, all sources confirmed. Beach has links to the US president’s son, Donald Trump Jr. Beach himself has been in touch with Romanian offshore logistics company GSP Offshore with a view to bringing Nord Stream back into use one, sources in the EU and US said. The company has provided drilling and support services to Gazprom in the past but is currently facing financial problems after racking up debt, according to company documents seen by ICIS. GSP Offshore did not respond to questions from ICIS. BULGARIAN LINK Gentry Beach’s name also recently surfaced in talks related to the acquisition of a stake in Bulgaria’s gas transmission infrastructure, which connects to TurkStream2 and is used for the transport of Russian gas to central Europe, according to two EU sources familiar with discussions. They explained Beach had been in contact with Bulgarian gas grid operator Bulgartransgaz after Elliott Investment Management, a US hedge fund managing over $70bn in assets, pulled out less than a month after signalling interest in acquiring a stake. Lynch and Beach did not reply to questions from ICIS. Bulgartransgaz did not reply to questions. A spokeswoman for Elliott Investment Management confirmed the company had had some preliminary discussions in Bulgaria but eventually decided to “pass on this”. LIFTING SANCTIONS The resumption of gas flows via Nord Stream 2 would hinge on the US Treasury lifting sanctions, persuading the EU that US ownership would guarantee compliance with a looming ban on Russian fossil fuel imports and lobbying German policymakers to unfreeze the certification of Nord Stream 2. Investors might find it challenging to meet these goals, the sources said. The two Nord Stream 2 pipelines, with a combined capacity of 55 billion cubic meters/year, were sanctioned in the US under the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA) and the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Clarification Act (PEESCA). Three of the four sources interviewed by ICIS confirmed Lynch had lobbied the Biden administration to remove the sanctions. Although these were not removed under the previous administration, they included a five-year sunset clause which meant they lapsed at the end of 2024. Even though Congress did not extend them under PEESA and PEESCA, they were renewed under a broader executive order authorising sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The sanctions are now in place as part of the catch-all executive order but they would be easier to overturn than if they had been extended under PEESA and PEESCA. All four sources interviewed by ICIS remain sceptical US president Donald Trump would be willing to scrap them, given his long-running opposition to the project. GERMANY All sources interviewed by ICIS said Lynch had been actively lobbying German policymakers to approve Nord Stream 2, certification of which was halted when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Even if a strong support base in Germany may exist among some policymakers, it would still be difficult to persuade the EU that imports via Nord Stream were fully compliant with the EU Russian gas import ban. The European Commission has introduced a set of proposals aimed at fully phasing out Russian fossil fuels by 2028 and has pitched a raft of tough transparency measures designed to enforce the ban.

Spoof signals hits vessel tracking around Hormuz Implications for ship safety and market analysis Impacting vessel scheduling to Ras Laffan but not production LONDON (ICIS)—Much focus from energy companies tracking hostilities between Israel and Iran has been on higher oil, gas and LNG prices but compromises to critical regional shipping data pose risks both to safety and wider data analysis. The corruption of the automated ship signal (AIS) data that vessels broadcast to alert others of their whereabouts has emerged in recent days, especially in and around the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow channel between Iran and Oman. On Monday 16 June, after a weekend of rocket fire between Iran and Israel, AIS data gathered by ICIS LNG Edge showed significant disruptions coming from several ships close to Ras Laffan, Qatar, in the Persian Gulf. In the case of LNG tankers, this manifested itself in ‘spoofed’ signals erroneously indicating that several vessels were located on the Iranian mainland. This was corroborated by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a shipping organisation that runs a Voluntary Reporting Scheme for the sector for the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea. “The level of electronic interference … inside the Gulf [is] having a significant impact on vessels’ positional reporting through automated systems. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and continue to report incidents of electronic interference,” the UKMTO said on 16 June. It has been reporting about GPS interference in the region since early May. AIS INTERVENTIONS Faced with these issues, ICIS LNG analysts have been carefully unpicking the satellite trails produced by spoofed LNG shipping to try to work out where they actually are. At the same time as UKMTO was issuing its warning, around six LNG vessels were broadcasting erroneous locations inside the Iranian mainland, at Asaluyeh, more or less opposite Bahrain on the other side of the Persian Gulf. These included Aseem, chartered by India’s Petronet; Rasheeda, Al Jasra, Simaisma and Maran Gas Troy – all of which are under Qatari control – and Italian Eni’s Maran Gas Efessos. Once identified, it is possible to manually delete the erroneous waypoints and reposition the vessel back where it was last reliably seen. However, given that each time the vessel broadcasts a new point it can place it back in Iran, ICIS has been generally been carrying out removals only once a vessel is clearly back on the move, as in the case of Maran Gas Troy, a laden vessel which was clearly rounding Hormuz in the evening of 17 June. MAJOR SAFETY IMPLICATIONS Together with marine radar, the AIS signature that ships broadcast to satellites is a key tool in collision avoidance for water traffic. On 17 June, however, a collision was reported between two vessels 26 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah. Footage later showed one of the vessels, an oil tanker, having sustained severe damage and burning strongly. There was “no indication the incident was the result of hostile activity resulting from the ongoing regional conflict,” UKMTO added, but the fact that the collision was caused by vessels sailing blind, rather than being hit by a missile is unlikely to calm the market significantly. This was in evidence in the rollcall of around 12 ballast vessels outside Ras Laffan at the start of the week, apparently waiting to load and move off. It subsequently emerged that QatarEnergy had reportedly instructed its ships to only make transit into the Persian Gulf the day before loading and to wait outside, in the Arabian Sea, until they were ready to do so. As of 17 June, LNG loadings from Qatar’s Ras Laffan stood at 45 over the prior 15-day period, which is squarely in line with expectations. With indications that insurance requirements have been preventing some shippers from entering the area for the time being, there is scope for further disruption.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in May jumped by 18.4% year on year to $31 billion, due to front-loaded shipments before the US’ temporary of reciprocal tariffs expires in early July. The growth in May was the largest since March 2022 and marked the fifth straight month of double-digit gains, preliminary official data showed on Wednesday. Total shipments to the US – Thailand’s largest exports destination – surged in May by 35.1% year on year, resulting in a trade surplus of $4.6 billion with the world’s biggest economy, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce. Thailand’s overall imports rose by 18% year on year to $29.9 billion in May, resulting in a trade surplus of around $1.1 billion. For the first five months of 2025, total exports rose by 14.9% year on year to $138.2 billion, while imports were up by 11.3% at $139.3 billion. Without a trade deal, Thailand’s exports to the US will be subject to a much higher tariffs of 36% in early July. Currently, a temporary moratorium allows Thailand and other nations to benefit from a reduced US tariff rate of 10%. The looming tariff hike could significantly hit Thailand’s export-driven economy, which relies heavily on markets like the US for goods such as electronics, automotive parts, and agricultural products. Thai commerce minister Pichai Naripthaphan was quoted by various media as saying on 16 June said that both nations could reach an agreement on possibly setting the US reciprocal tariffs at as low as 10%. Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy