LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the likely impact of Trump’s tariffs on the smartphone market. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 November. Europe PET hit by multiple factors pulling market in different directions Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) sources in Europe are faced with a plethora of circumstances trying to shape the market, which in the end may result in a degree of stability. Crude markets face substantial 2025 surplus as China demand falters – IEA Global crude supply growth is likely to outstrip demand by over a million barrels/day in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, with the “marked” slowdown in China consumption the main drag on consumption this year. INSIGHT: European cracker shutdowns could open market to US ethylene exports European ethylene producers could be planning more cracker shutdowns, with the lost capacity being replaced by imports from the US. Shell wins appeal in Dutch emissions caseThe Netherlands court ruling mandating that Shell cut its total carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 has been thrown out, the oil and gas major said on Tuesday. Europe PE, PP adapt value proposition in face of evolving market European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are evolving as the world they occupy steadily changes.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean refiner S-Oil’s new petrochemical complex in Ulsan is now 42% complete as of end-October and is on track for completion in 2026. Shaheen accounts for about 87% of full-year 2024 capex Project progress slightly ahead of schedule S-Oil swung to Q3 net loss on poor refining, petrochemical margins Construction of the $7bn project called Shaheen – Arabic word for falcon – at the Onsan Industrial Complex of Ulsan City started in March 2023. Its mechanical completion is targeted by the first half of 2026. Total capital expenditure (capex) for the Shaheen project is projected at W2,716 billion ($1.95 billion) in 2024, up 85% year on year, and accounts for about 87% of S-Oil’s overall capex this year. The company’s full-year capex at W3,136 billion, which includes costs of upgrade and maintenance works as well as marketing-related expenses, represents a 54% increase from 2023 levels. The Shaheen project will have a 1.8m tonne/year mixed-feed cracking facility; an 880,000 tonne/year linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) unit; and a 440,000 tonne/year high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant. The site will have a thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) facility, which will convert crude directly into petrochemical feedstocks such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha, and the cracker is expected to recycle waste heat for power generation in the refinery. Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest crude exporter, owns more than 63% of S-Oil. The project update was included in S-Oil’s presentation slides on its Q3 financial results released on 4 November. The company swung to a Q3 net loss of W206 billion amid a sharp decline in refining and petrochemical earnings. in South Korean won (W) billion Q3 2024 Q3 2023 % Change Jan-Sept 2024 Jan-Sept 2023 % Change Revenue 8,841 9,000 -1.8 27,720 25,897 7.0 Operating income -415 859 200 1,411 -85.8 Net income -206 545 -61 788 The petrochemicals unit of S-OIL posted an operating income of W5.0 billion in the third quarter, an 89% year-on-year drop. Paraxylene (PX) and benzene markets weakened in Q3 due to increased supply amid reduced gasoline blending demand and restarts of production facilities after turnarounds. The company’s PX spread to naphtha weakened to $271/tonne in Q3 from $425/tonne in the same period last year, while the benzene-naphtha spread rose to $315/tonne from $251/tonne in the same period a year earlier. In the downstream olefin market, polypropylene (PP) was bearish in the third quarter due to “abundant regional supply amid weak downstream demand”. The refining unit posted an operating loss of W573.7 billion in the third quarter, swinging from the W666.2 billion profit in the same period a year earlier. The loss in the refining segment was mostly due to the one-off impact from the decline in oil prices and foreign exchange rates. On market conditions, the company said that the supply-demand environment and margins for refiners in Asia is expected to “gradually improve due to reduced operating rate from low margin condition and heavier maintenances year over year, amid continued stockpiling if winter heating oil”. For Q4, the company expected the PX and benzene markets to be supported by fresh demand from new downstream capacities while gasoline demand stays slow. For downstream olefin markets, S-Oil said that PP and propylene oxide (PO) markets may show modest recovery “depending on the impact of China’s economic stimulus measures amid ongoing capacity additions”. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = W1,395)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 November. INSIGHT: India’s ADD findings on PVC have potential to reshape regional flows in wider Asia By Jonathan Chou 11-Nov-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market players are assessing the potential ramifications following preliminary findings on India’s PVC imports released by the country’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). Asia petrochemical shares tumble as China stimulus disappoints By Jonathan Yee 11-Nov-24 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia tumbled on Monday as China’s much-awaited stimulus measures failed to impress markets, while the US is likely to put up more trade barriers against the Asian giant following the re-election of Donald Trump as president. Asia toluene markets slump on waning regional demand By Melanie Wee 12-Nov-24 11:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s toluene spot markets are being weighed down by a combination of burgeoning supply and lacklustre demand, at a time when arbitrage economics to divert material to the US were unviable. Asia petrochemical shares fall on strong US dollar, uncertain trade policies By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Nov-24 14:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. Shell Singapore site divestment deal to be completed in Q1 2025 By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Nov-24 11:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. INSIGHT: China may accelerate PP exports amid intensified supply and demand imbalance By Lucy Shuai 14-Nov-24 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China may accelerate PP exports in 2025 amid an intensified imbalance between supply and demand as a large number of new plants are expected to start up. PODCAST: SE Asia propylene to face additional supply, freight challenges in 2025 By Damini Dabholkar 15-Nov-24 11:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia’s propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand. Crimped supplies ease pressure on Asia VAM prices By Hwee Hwee Tan 15-Nov-24 14:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sporadic plant disruptions and crimped supplies in China are fuelling expectations of price competition easing across vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import markets in Asia.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US were largely stable this week but exporters are being urged to book outgoing shipments 4-6 weeks in advance as labor issues between union dock workers and US Gulf and East Coast ports stalled. For US companies working to export excess volumes to balance year-end inventories, those shipments need to be going out this week. For importers, rates from Asia to the US West Coast fell by 2% and are down by almost 3% over the past two weeks, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. The chart also shows rates from Asia to New York were largely stable, down by 0.20% and by 0.36% over the past two weeks. Global average rates held steady at around $3,440/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), as shown in the following chart. With the breakdown in negotiations between the US Maritime Alliance (USMX), representing the ports, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and with the expectation of significant tariff increases under the administration of President-elect Donald Trump, analysts expect a surge of imports over the last few weeks of the year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has revised its forecast for the rest of the year on the developments. Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but the NRF/Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units), up 3.7% year on year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year on year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. CANADA PORT LABOR ISSUES The Port of Montreal will resume operations on Saturday, 16 November, at 07:00 local time, following labor disruptions that started on 31 October and a subsequent lockout of about 1,200 dock workers. The Port of Vancouver and other Canadian west coast ports resumed operations on Thursday after a strike and lockout of about 730 foremen who supervise more than 7,000 dock workers that began on 4 November. The Port of Vancouver is Canada’s largest port by far. More than Canadian dollar (C$) 22 million ($15.7 million) of chemistry and plastic products was traded through Vancouver and other west coast ports each day in 2023, for a total of C$8 billion for the year, according to the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC). LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES STABLE US chemical tanker spot rates were overall steady this week for most trade lanes, while vessel demand continues to remain soft for various routes. One exception is rates from the USG to the Mediterranean, which surged as interest to this region remains steady. There was an uptick on cargoes from various regions to Montreal as shippers work to deliver and pick up material before the ice season closes for winter transit and soon will require ice class vessels. The US Gulf to ARA remains soft and solid for contractual cargoes and as CPP tonnage continues to participate in the chemical sector. If it persists it could continue to pressure to the market even further. Similarly, that situation exists for volumes on the USG to the Caribbean and South America trade lanes. From the USG to these regions, space among regular carriers remains available, due to a lack of interest. However, for the USG to Asia spot volumes continue to be weak as there seems to be plenty of prompt space available. Mainly parcels of monoethylene glycols (MEG), ethanol and methanol to this region seems to have provided any support to the weak market. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market in various directions. Bunker prices remain stable mainly due to the continued the volatility in energy prices week on week. PANAMA CANAL MAINTENANCE The West Lane of Miraflores Locks will be out of service due to concrete maintenance on the West Southend approach wall for about 48 hours from early on 23 November until late on 24 November, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). The number of slots available to super and regular vessels will be reduced because of the maintenance. Once the maintenance is complete, the 20 slots for supers and the six slots for regular vessels will be reinstated for booking dates beginning 25 November, the PCA said. As of September, the PCA has 36 slots per day after limiting transits late in 2023 because of a severe drought in the region. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Stefan Baumgarten

TORONTO (ICIS)–The Port of Montreal will resume operations on Saturday, 16 November, at 07:00 local time, following labor disruptions that started on 31 October and a subsequent lockout of about 1,200 dock workers. The Maritime Employers Association (MEA) said it received an order from the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to resume operations. The federal government earlier this week directed the CIRB to order the resumption of all operations at Montreal, as well as Canada’s West Coast ports, where operations resumed on Thursday. The MEA said it would work closely with the longshoremen’s labor union Syndicat des debardeurs and the Montreal Port Authority to ensure operations resume safely and efficiently. Montreal is Canada’s second-largest port after Vancouver. Last year, the Port of Montreal handled a total volume of 35.3 million tonnes of goods, according to its website. Meanwhile, at US East Coast ports, a labor dispute remains paused but there are concerns about whether employers and unions will reach an agreement by the 15 January deadline. LEGAL CHALLENGES The labor unions representing the port workers in Montreal and the Canadian West Coast ports said they would challenge the government intervention in court as it violated workers’ constitutionally protected rights to strike and to negotiate better wages and terms. Political commentators said that by intervening in labor disputes and settling them through binding arbitration, the government was siding with employers. The very expectation of a government intervention encouraged employers to lock out workers and then use the resulting economic damage to put pressure on government to intervene, they said. Earlier this year, another labor union, Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC), filed a court challenge against the government’s move in August to intervene and end a freight rail labor dispute. That case has not yet been decided. Additional reporting by Adam Yanelli Thumbnail photo source: Port of Montreal

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on major trading partners could spark a trade war which will drive the end of a globalized economy plus more local and circular chemical supply chains. US-China trade war would drag on economic growth World may return to more national and intra-regional trade in chemicals Trump could help drive the end of deglobalization Development of more local, circular supply chains Chemicals Q3 financial results show some volume growth But industry still at the bottom of a trough Lack of growth from automotive, construction In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS market development executive Nigel Davis and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–PTT Asahi Chemical will cease operations from 1 January 2025, according to the company’s parent firms – Thailand’s PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) and Japan’s Asahi Kasei on Friday. It operates a 200,000 tonne/year propane-based acrylonitrile (ACN) plant; a 70,000 tonne/year methyl methacrylate (MMA) plant; and a 60,000 tonne/year acetone cyanohydrin unit in Map Ta Phut, Thailand, according to ICIS data. A business withdrawal plan for the 50:50 joint venture company was approved by shareholders on Friday, PTTGC said in a bourse filing.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia’s propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand. In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Julia Tan speaks with senior analyst Shariene Goh to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead next year. High freight rates likely to remain key challenge to PP exports, which could weigh on propylene demand Southeast Asia to take price direction from northeast Asia Net deficit for Indonesia despite Indonesia’s LINE project