MADRID (ICIS)–Petrobras has appealed to Brazil’s antitrust regulator CADE to secure its participation in Nelson Tanure’s bid to control petrochemicals major Braskem, according to the Brazilian state-owned energy major. Petrobras – which controls 36.1% of Braskem capital structure – claims it has been excluded from negotiations even though it is one of the company’s largest shareholders. In May, Brazilian entrepreneur Nelson Tanure’s investment fund Petroquimica Verde made an offer to acquire Novonor’s 38.3% stake in Braskem. The Novonor stake is a controlling one as it has 51.1% of the voting rights. Petrobras has 47% of the voting rights. However, according to a Braskem shareholder agreement between Petrobras and Novonor, the energy major has pre-emptive and tag-along rights in the event of a direct or indirect sale of the shares held by Novonor. “Petrobras has requested to join as a third party in the merger review proceedings evaluating the possible purchase of shares in NSP Inv, a subsidiary of Novonor, which controls Braskem, by Nelson Tanure,” said Petrobras. The Petrobras appeal to CADE comes less than a week after the antitrust regulator approved Tanure’s proposal without restrictions. However, CADE said the deal can only proceed if Tanure fulfills the Novonor shareholders’ agreement obligations with Petrobras and succeeds in talks with former Odebrecht’s creditor banks, which hold Braskem shares as collateral for debts of around Brazilian reais (R) 15 billion ($2.7 billion). “For this reason, the company requested that the competition agency allow it to join the proceedings as an interested third party,” added Petrobras. As in previous communications, Petrobras said no decision has been made about its stake in Braskem. Braskem, Novonor and Petroquimica Verde have yet to reply to a request for comment at the time of writing.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the collapse underway in the chloralkali/PVC sector, and Dow’s Q2 results. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: The US-EU trade deal, setting a 15% baseline tariff, is generating mixed reactions across Europe. Is this truly a “good” deal, or simply essential damage control? My latest blog post dives into the nuances, weighing the gains against the significant costs for the European economy. This, of course, comes at a time of major restructuring pressure on European petrochemicals. As the dust settles, further posts will assess what the deal could mean this particular European industry. Key Pros for Europe: Averted Trade War Catastrophe: Successfully avoided the threatened 30% US tariffs and massive EU retaliation, preventing severe economic turmoil and widespread supply chain disruption. Restored Stability & Predictability: The 15% baseline offers a clearer cost structure for businesses, aiding long-term planning amidst ongoing uncertainty. Maintained Crucial Market Access: Despite higher costs, European goods (like automobiles) retain access to the vital US market, averting potential exclusion. Strategic Sector Protection: “Zero-for-zero” tariffs secured for key high-value sectors like aircraft, certain chemicals, generic drugs, and semiconductor equipment. Preserved Transatlantic Ties: Maintained a crucial diplomatic relationship vital for broader global cooperation. Key Cons for Europe: Higher Overall Tariff Burden: 15% is significantly above historical averages, imposing a new, ongoing cost burden on European exporters. Increased Costs: US importers face higher costs, either leading to increased consumer prices or reduced European profit margins. Impact on Key Export Sectors: Automakers, for example, face reduced competitiveness and potential acceleration of costly reshoring efforts. Unresolved Tariffs & Concessions: 50% US tariffs on steel/aluminium remain, while Europe has pledged substantial US LNG & military equipment purchases, plus major investments. Fragmented Trade Landscape: The deal creates a patchwork of tariffs, not a return to free trade, and highlights Europe’s defensive, limited negotiating position. This agreement underscores the ongoing fragility of global trade relations. It’s a pragmatic retreat to safeguard the broader economic relationship. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean S-Oil’s thermal crude-to-chemical project in Ulsan is now 77.7% complete and is on track for mechanical completion in H1 2026, even as the company’s Q2 net loss widened. As of 16 July, major towers of the project called “Shaheen” – Arabic for “falcon” – had been installed, with installation of cracking heater in progress, the South Korean refiner said on 25 July. Installations of the thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) reactor and key units, as well as linear low density polyethylene and high-density polyethylene (LLDPE/HDPE) reactors & extruders were all completed, it added. S-Oil is 63%-owned by Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil. The company’s Q2 net loss widened to South Korean won (W) 66.8 billion ($48 million) as its petrochemical business swung into an operating loss of W34.6 billion from a profit of W109.9 billion in the same period last year. in billion won (W) Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Yr-on-Yr % change H1 2025 H1 2024  Yr-on-Yr % change Revenue 8,048.5 9,570.8 -15.9 17,039.0 18,879.3  -9.7 Operating income -344.0 160.6 – -365.5 614.8 – Net income -66.8 -21.3 – -111.3 144.9 – Refining operating profit -441.1 -95.0 – -497.9 155.4 – Petrochemical operating profit -34.6 109.9 – -109.2 157.9 – Lube operating profit 131.8 145.8 -9.6 241.5 301.4 -19.9 Compared with Q1, Q2 paraxylene (PX) market rebounded on fresh demand from a new purified terephthalic acid (PTA) facility in China and benzene  market weakened due to reduce US imports following the imposition of tariffs. Polypropylene (PP) and propylene oxide (PO) markets recovered amid tighter supply from regional maintenance and easing tension between the US and China. For Q3, the company expects PX to be firm due to plant turnarounds and start-ups of new downstream PTA facilities, with the benzene market likely to be resilient, as demand from new downstream facilities offsets decreased US imports. PP and PO markets may remain supported as tariff uncertainties fade, despite ongoing capacity additions in China, the company predicts. ($1 = W1,380)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 25 July. INSIGHT: Japan ruling coalition loss undermines PM Ishiba negotiating power with US By Jonathan Yee 21-Jul-25 14:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s ruling coalition failed to secure a majority in the upper house election on 20 July, with dwindling political support at home coming at a crucial time when Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is in the process of negotiating a trade deal with the US. Malaysia clamps down on plastic waste imports for recycling By Arianne Perez 21-Jul-25 15:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia has announced more stringent requirements in the import of plastic waste from some countries while fully banning imports from others. US sets lower 15% tariffs for Japan after trade deal By Jonathan Yee 23-Jul-25 10:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US President Donald Trump announced in a social media post on 22 July a “massive” deal with Japan, setting US tariffs at 15% on Japanese goods. India extends deadline for final findings in PVC anti-dumping probe to 25 September By Aswin Kondapally 23-Jul-25 15:48 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has been granted an extension until 25 September 2025 to issue the final findings in its ongoing anti-dumping investigation into imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) suspension resins from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. INSIGHT: China to retire old petrochemical units to reshape industry By Fanny Zhang 24-Jul-25 13:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is planning to carry out a comprehensive assessment of petrochemical plants that have been in operation for more than 20 years – a move that would ease overcapacity and accelerate industry consolidation. Asia SBR/PBR import offers lifted by buoyancy in domestic China By Ai Teng Lim 24-Jul-25 14:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Regional sellers of synthetic rubbers, from styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) to polybutadiene rubber (PBR), are seeking to leverage on a recent spike in domestic yuan-denominated prices for these two synthetic rubber grades and chase higher selling targets for their export cargoes. Asia fatty alcohol mid-cuts demand to stay firm on restocking, PKO spike By Helen Yan 25-Jul-25 12:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s fatty alcohols mid-cuts C12-14 demand is expected to stay firm in the near term due to restocking, with elevated feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) costs providing strong support. Thailand June exports rise 15.5%; US shipments surge ahead of tariff deadline By Jonathan Yee 25-Jul-25 15:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in June grew by 15.5% year on year to $28.6 billion on front-loading of shipments ahead of the US’ 36% tariffs, which will take effect on 1 August.

LONDON (ICIS)–On 24 July 2025, the European Commission sent letters of formal notice to 26 member states for failing to transpose key provisions of the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) by the 21 May 2025 deadline. Only Denmark is considered to have fully transposed these provisions so did not receive a letter. The formal notices cover all RED III measures that were due in May 2025, including the renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) targets for industry under Articles 22a and 22b, and for road and maritime transport under Article 25. They also address guarantees of origin, system integration requirements, and sustainability safeguards. Under EU infringement rules, the 26 EU countries will now have two months to submit full transposition measures. If the commission deems the replies unsatisfactory, reasoned opinions will be issued. Further non-compliance could lead to the cases being referred to the European Court of Justice, where financial penalties may be imposed. Article 22a requires member states to set binding national targets for RFNBOs in industry, specifying the share of renewable hydrogen, synthetic fuels and other carbon-neutral carriers each sector must achieve by 2030 Article 22b establishes common sustainability and greenhouse gas emission criteria, requiring certification schemes that enforce feedstock traceability, lifecycle emissions calculations and independent verification Article 25 obliges Member States to ensure a minimum share of renewable and low-carbon fuels in road transport and maritime shipping, with sub-quotas for advanced biofuels, renewable hydrogen and synthetic e-fuels This development follows the commission’s decision to issue reasoned opinions to Ireland, Latvia, and Portugal for failing to transpose Article 15a of RED III, one year after the 1 July 2024 deadline. Article 15a requires each member state to set clear time limits for processing renewable energy permits, to establish designated areas where permitting rules apply, and to create single points of contact for developers. It also calls for user-friendly digital tools and transparent online procedures to streamline permitting procedures.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eni’s chemical business reported a narrower proforma adjusted loss of €184 million in the second quarter of 2025, mainly attributed to reduced oil-based feedstock expenses, although the chemical sector remains weak, the Italy-headquartered producer said on Friday. This compared with a loss of €222 million during the same period last year. Chemicals € million Q2 2025 Q2 2024 H1 2025 H1 2024 Proforma adjusted EBIT – 184 – 222 -427 -390 Eni’s chemicals business is managed by Versalis. Sales of chemical products decreased 5% year on year in the second quarter amid lower demand and plant shutdown. In the first six months of the year, chemical product sales fell 6% year on year. Plant utilization rates averaged 47% in the second quarter, an increase of two percentage points from the same period last year. Margins remained weak across the board as commodity prices were unable to offset feedstock and energy input expenses amid “European headwinds, sluggish economic activity and competitive pressures from players with better cost structures”, the company said.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Trade tensions between China and major global economies are shaping the future of the world’s second-largest economy. What’s next for China’s GDP, unemployment, inflation, and of course petrochemicals? I’ve outlined three “back-of-the-envelope” scenarios to help kickstart your strategic planning, focusing on trends and magnitudes rather than specific numbers. Best Case: Comprehensive De-escalation & Broad Agreements Outlook: A diplomatic breakthrough leading to robust GDP growth, easing youth unemployment, and an inflationary recovery. Exports rebound strongly. Petrochemicals: Increased trade stability, potential for margin rebound, though China’s demand growth recalibrates to a lower, more sustainable pace post-property bubble. Medium Case: Protracted Stalemate & Selective De-escalation Outlook: A “muddle through” period with moderate GDP slowdown, persistently elevated youth unemployment, and ongoing deflationary pressures. Export growth remains sluggish. Petrochemicals: Continued trade route shifts, no major margin recovery from trade alone, and an accelerated push for China’s self-sufficiency. Worst Case: Full-Blown Trade War & Deep Decoupling Outlook: Sharp GDP contraction, a severe unemployment crisis (especially for youth), and entrenched deflation. Exports collapse, leading to aggressive state stimulus. Petrochemicals: Severe disruption, near-cessation of key trade flows (eg, US LPG/ethane), further margin deterioration, and an urgent drive for national security-prioritized self-sufficiency in China. Even in the best case, remember China faces structural headwinds from the property market and an ageing population, which will temper growth. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s overall exports in June grew by 15.5% year on year to $28.6 billion on front-loading of shipments ahead of the US’ 36% tariffs, which will take effect on 1 August. June exports to US surge by 42% year on year Military conflict with Cambodia; domestic political instability dog government 2025 GDP growth projected to slow to 2.3% from 2.5% in 2024 Although June was the 12th straight month of export growth for the southeast Asian nation, the pace of expansion eased from 18.4% in May. Total shipments to the US – Thailand’s largest exports destination – surged in June by 41.9% year on year, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce on 24 July. Thailand’s overall imports rose by 13.1% year on year to $27.5 billion in May, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.06 billion. During the first six months of the year, exports rose by 15.0% to $66.8 billion, while imports increased at a slower pace of 11.6% to $66.9 billion. However, this run may not last as front-loading momentum may ease once the US tariffs come into force. Thailand has yet to reach a trade deal with the US on bringing down the tariffs from 36%. Exports are expected to remain positive, but the growth rate would ease from double-digit levels in the next five months to December, said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO). US TARIFF DEADLINE APPROACHES Thailand and the US have yet to come to a trade agreement, raising pressure on the government at a time when the country’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended due to a leaked call in which she criticised the Thai military. Phumtham Wechayachai is currently the Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, while Deputy Prime Minister and finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira is heading trade talks with the US. The southeast Asian country is experiencing further instability amid a border clash with Cambodia, during which armed clashes and rocket fire were reported on the morning of 24 July. Thai fighter jets were deployed in response to the rocket fire and at least 12 have been killed, according to media reports on 24 July. Both sides have accused each other of starting the 24 July conflict, centering around historically disputed border regions of Surin in Thailand and the Cambodian province of Oddar Meanchey. On Friday, the Thai army requested people to stay away from border areas as fighting intensifies. “Aside from uncertainty around US trade policies, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and domestic political instability could pose additional threats to the Thai economy,” the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report on 23 July. The Thai economy is projected to expand at a slower rate of 2.3% in 2025 and of 1.7% in 2026, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) said in its last monetary policy meeting on 25 June. In 2024, actual GDP growth was 2.5%. Meanwhile, the ADB projects a much slower growth of 1.8% for Thailand in 2025, which would further decelerate to 1.6% in 2026. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.