HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shipping container rates from Asia to the US fell again this week on softer demand now that the rush to import goods before tariffs take effect is over, and liquid tanker rates were mostly stable. On 6 August, the US announced it would impose additional tariffs of 25% on shipments from India, in response to its imports of Russian oil and petroleum products. The tariffs will take effect on 27 August and bring total tariffs to 50%. On 7 August, the modified US tariff rates went into effect. The new tariffs range from a baseline rate of 10% to 41%. Countries not mentioned in the order will be subject to a baseline 10% tariff. Rates from supply chain advisors Drewry fell by 7% from Shanghai to New York and by 4% from Shanghai to Los Angeles, as shown in the following chart. Since the big rush is now over to ship cargo before the tariff increases, Drewry expects spot rates to remain less volatile in the coming week. Rates from ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta were down by 7% to the West Coast and by 12% to the East Coast. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said carriers have taken action to arrest the plummeting average spot rates on the Transpacific trade to the US West Coast through strong capacity management, with blanked sailings now almost double the level in mid-June. “The dramatic spot rate decline has slowed in August, so the stronger capacity management is having some success for carriers, but this is limited and not enough to stop the downward trajectory in coming months,” Sand said. “With significant overcapacity in the global container shipping fleet and a muted forecast for demand, keeping spot rates elevated will be like holding back the tide, no matter how hard carriers try.” Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos were largely flat to the West Coast and fell to the East Coast. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, agreed that the implementation of tariffs has not had much impact on rates since most goods have already been pulled forward. “Though a 90-day tariff extension for China could lead to some transpacific ocean demand rebound, here too frontloading to date likely means that the peak for the transpacific ocean peak season this year would still remain behind us,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES MOSTLY STEADY US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were mostly unchanged week on week. Trade routes from the USG remain slow as several trade lanes are discussed slightly lower and inquiries continue to be slow. Cargo moving into Asia remains muted following the US imposed tariff announcements along this route taking effect. As a result, rates are stable from the previous week, the usual cargoes of methanol and ethanol were seen quoted in the market for end-August to early-September lifting. Meanwhile, rates from the USG to Rotterdam are experiencing the same trend, as this market also remains stable. Most of the regular carriers have noted that there is little prompt space; however, they did comment that plenty of space remains for 2H August. Should this trend continue, rates could be pressured even lower.  Large parcels of vegetable oils and methanol were quoted in the market. From the USG to Brazil, this market has remained relatively unchanged and is experiencing some downward pressure. While the market continues to be inactive it is further influenced by freight availability and a swing in trade lane dynamics. Demand remains soft, particularly for larger parcels further pressuring some downward movement. For the USG to India trade lane, the market remains extremely soft with plenty of space available and as outsiders entered the market. As a result, this has placed downward pressure on rates, which fell this week, and could fall further on the route if this persists. Several inquiries were seen for monoethylene glycol (MEG), methanol, ethanol and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). ACCIDENT LEADS TO BRIEF CLOSURE OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER The Mississippi river just north of St Louis was closed to commercial traffic on Thursday after a helicopter crashed into a barge, killing two people. The barge was carrying ethylene glycol, but not a large enough quantity to impact supply/demand balances. The Mississippi river is a major shipping waterway for crops and other goods. It reopened on Thursday night near Alton, Illinois, except for in a safety zone that extends 450 feet from the shore between mile marker 199.5 and mile marker 200.5, according to the US Coast Guard. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Melissa Wheeler

HOUSTON (ICIS)–In this podcast, join the ICIS global base oils team as they discuss the key drivers impacting the market in H2. Weaker crude complex to weigh on costs Group II supply poised for length Demand weakness persists

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Braskem is in talks with Unipar Carbocloro about a possible deal involving assets, equity interests or both, the Brazilian polyolefins producer said on Friday. Braskem said there are no details about the assets or equity interests involved. It acknowledged a media report that said the possible transaction could involve assets in the US, where Braskem owns plants that make polypropylene (PP) and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMW-PE). Unipar Carbocloro, a vinyls producer, had earlier made a non-binding offer for a majority stake in Braskem in 2023. BRASKEM ALSO HOLDING TALKS WITH TANUREBraskem is also holding talks with Nelson Tanure’s investment fund Petroquimica Verde, which has made an offer to acquire Novonor’s stake in the company. Novonor holds a 38.3% stake in Braskem and owns 51.1% of its voting rights. Novonor has been trying to sell its shares in Braskem for years. It needs to make some kind of deal to fulfil the commitments it made to creditors before and during its bankruptcy, which occurred in the wake of the Lava Jato corruption scandal. Tanure has businesses involved in power companies; civil construction through its firm Gafisa; oil and gas through PetroRio and investments in the exploration of natural resources; telecommunications, with participations in operators Oi and TIM Brasil; and healthcare, with Alliance Health and diagnostic laboratories, among others. The negotiations with Tanure had become entangled with Petrobras, the state-controlled energy producer that holds a 36.1% stake in Braskem and owns 47% of the company’s voting rights. Additional reporting by Jonathan Lopez Thumbnail shows a Braskem booth. Image by ICIS

Germany’s 2.5GW offshore wind auction failed to attract any bids Market participants believe this failure could jeopardise Germany’s target of 30GW offshore wind by 2030 Industry urges government to reform auction design with support of two-way CFDs LONDON (ICIS)– For the first time, a German offshore wind tender failed to attract any bids. Now market participants are warning this could lead to reduced volumes in future offshore wind tenders, potentially impacting capacity targets for 2030. On 6 August, the German Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) announced no bids were received for two of its offshore wind sites in the North Sea, totalling 2.5GW of capacity. The tender was for the investigated areas of N-10.1 and N-10.2, with volumes of 2,000MW and 500MW and planned commissioning dates of 2031 and 2030, respectively. THREAT FOR FUTURE OFFSHORE WIND CAPACITY One German power trader told ICIS that as a result of the failed auction, volumes for future offshore wind tenders could possibly be reduced. A German power analyst shared a similar view, noting that the outcome could help prompt a revision of Germany’s 2030 offshore targets to be lowered in this year’s energy monitoring report, expected at the end of August 2025. “I assume there will be a reduction in capacity. Nevertheless, a timely revision is needed in order to achieve even lower targets,” the analyst said. ICIS long-term power analytics currently projects installed German offshore wind capacity to reach 25GW by 2030, 5GW short of the 2030 national target. The same analyst explained that lower offshore wind targets would generally have a pronounced bullish impact on the far end of the curve, but added that a downward correction of projected electricity demand for 2030 would almost neutralise the effect. A weak industrial demand and slow growth in e-mobility and heat pumps could potentially deteriorate demand forecasts for the coming years. On 7 August, ICIS assessed the German Baseload Cal ’27, Cal ’28 and Cal ’29 power contracts at €80.975/MWh, €73.100/MWh and €71.275/MWh, respectively. CALLS FOR AUCTION DESIGN REFORM In a response to request for information, BNetzA told ICIS it had “no information on motivations that caused potential bidders to refrain from submitting bids,” while the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) stated it was reviewing the outcome and would engage with stakeholders. Although no official reasons have been given, a spokesperson from the German Federal Association for Offshore Wind Energy (BWO) told ICIS that key factors included: excessive risk exposure from permitting uncertainty, rising costs and grid delays, the absence of a revenue stabilization mechanism like Contracts for Difference (CFDs), and misalignment between tender schedule and long lead times of offshore projects. “The postponed auction is, of course, a disaster for offshore wind power, but it can still be seen as a predictable failure,” said the German power analyst. The same analyst acknowledged that economic factors and technical issues in the tender areas likely contributed to the auction results, but highlighted that the auction design might have played a more significant part, noting “the UK has shown that potential investors are ready to step in if the auction system is right.” Nonetheless, the same source noted CFDs also have problems and should not be viewed as a sole solution. Germany’s offshore wind tenders currently use a negative bidding model, while the UK uses two-way CFDs – a model which offshore industry experts have previously said would help de-risk projects and provide a reliable revenue stream for offshore wind in Germany. Although the UK has seen some success for offshore wind in CFD auctions, with 3.4GW awarded to new offshore wind projects in the most recent auction held in 2024, the UK has introduced reforms to the scheme ahead of the seventh auction round. On the same day of the announcement, lobby groups such as Wind Europe and the BWO urged the German government to reform its auction design, stressing the need for a reliable CFD system. Denmark, which similarly failed to attract bids for its 3GW offshore wind tender in December 2024 and also used negative bidding model, recently announced it would re-tender the capacity using two-way CFDs.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Rising overcapacity, AI and protectionism may drive a swift transition in chemical production and markets over the next 5-10 years. Commodity chemicals may be produced mainly by large state-owned enterprises Smaller, privately-owned companies may switch to high value composites, specialties, low-carbon chemicals High-cost regions such as Europe could protect their essential commodity chemicals production Protective measures need to be taken in next 3-6 months to rescue EU commodity chemicals A lot more commodity capacity closures required to keep operating rates healthy AI will have a massive impact on chemical companies and markets AI will enable us to navigate and analyze increasingly chaotic markets AI could drive job losses, disrupt economies Climate change will alter seasonal and geographic demand patterns Electronics, property, auto markets are depressed Q2 chemicals results are very poor in all regions In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling Matt Tudball discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Drops in FD NWE bale, flake and food-grade pellet prices Eastern Europe colourless, blue flake down UK flake rolls over while southern Europe discussions delayed due to holidays

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–LG Chem swung to a second-quarter net loss year on year to won (W) 112 billion ($80.8 million), amid soft demand caused by US tariffs and Middle East instability, the South Korean producer said on 7 August. in Korean won (W) billion Q2 2025 Q2 2024 % Change Sales 11,418 12,242 -6.7 Operating profit 477 392 21.5 EBITDA 1,715 1,549 10.7 Net income -112 60 – Sales in LG Chem’s petrochemicals division fell 5.7% year on year to W4.7 trillion in the second quarter, while recording an operating loss of W90.4 billion amid buying hesitation and “unfavorable foreign-exchange effects”, the company said. “In the third quarter, the company aims to improve profitability through the normalization of new capacity additions for key products in North America and Asia and ongoing cost‑reduction initiatives,” said LG Chem in a statement. Overall demand is expected to remain “subdued” in the third quarter despite US tariff uncertainties having been resolved, as a 15% tariff on South Korean exports takes effect. LG Energy Solution’s Q2 operating profit turned positive to W492 billion, driven by an improved product mix from increased North American production and cost reduction efforts. LG Chem holds a controlling 81.8% stake in LG Energy Solution, the leading car battery maker in the country that supplies to electric vehicle majors such as Tesla. ($1= W1,387)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be above normal, but slightly less so than its initial prediction, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday in an update to its previous forecast. NOAA still anticipates 13-18 named storms, of which 5-9 will become hurricanes, and 2-5 of those will be major storms, as shown in the following graphic. Source: NOAA NOAA’s forecast in May was for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. “As the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season enters its historical peak, atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor an above-normal season as NOAA first predicted in May,” NOAA said. The adjustments are for the entire season, which runs through 30 November, and include the four named storms that have already formed. Yesterday, researchers at Colorado State University’s (CSU) Weather and Climate Research department also maintained their prediction, with slight adjustments to the downside. Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida – a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics. There is currently one named storm in the north Atlantic, Dexter, and two low pressure areas, none of which are expected to make landfall.

LONDON (ICIS)–Business sentiment in Germany’s chemical industry “significantly deteriorated” in July, from June, according to the latest survey by Munich-based research group ifo on Thursday. The weak industrial economy was weighing on demand for chemical products, both in Germany and abroad, ifo said. At the same time, the US tariffs on chemicals and pharmaceuticals were “significantly damaging” German companies’ US business, ifo said. The backlog of orders in the chemical industry is now at its lowest level since the financial crisis in 2009, ifo said. Meanwhile, companies were planning further job cuts, the group said. The ifo Business Climate Index for the chemical industry dropped to -19.2 points in July, from -9.5 in June. COMPANIES LOWER SALES OUTLOOKS Also on Thursday, Henkel and SGL Carbon announced that they lowered the outlooks for 2025 sales. Henkel now expects organic sales growth of 1.0-2.0%, down from its previous outlook of 1.5-3.5% growth. The updated outlook took into account, “the currently foreseeable effects of the global tariff agreements at this point in time and broadly correlates with current market expectations for Henkel’s business development over the course of the year”, said CEO Carsten Knobel. Henkel’s 2024 sales were €21.6 billion. SGL Carbon said that it expects full-year 2025 sales to decline by 10-15%, from 2024 sales of €1.026 billion. SGL’s previous outlook was for a 10% decline. “Increasing trade barriers, especially due to US tariff policy, are having a negative impact on the business development of our customers and sales markets,” SGL said. German chemical producers’ trade group VCI expects a 2.0% decline in the country’s chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) in 2025. Please also visit: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy