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Polypropylene28-May-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s foreign trade
committee Gecex has postponed a meeting where
it was expected to decide on imposing
antidumping duties (ADDs) polyethylene (PE)
imports from the US and Canada.
The decision has created uncertainty in the
country’s PE market, which widely expected the ADDs to be
implemented from June.
In a note on its website, Gecex stated the
“meeting will be rescheduled” but offered no
further details.
A spokesperson for Gecex said to ICIS it did
not have any further information to offer.
Gecex’s meeting this week planned to discuss
its investigation into allegations by Braskem,
Brazil’s sole PE producer, that US and Canadian
producers are exporting PE to Brazil below fair
market value.
According to market sources, Braskem had
already been communicating to customers price
increases on the back of the expected ADDs.
Earlier this week, Gecex increased ADDs
on US
polyvinyl chloride (PVC) from from 8.2% to
43.7%.
Gecex is also investigating potential
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) dumping from
Malaysia and Vietnam, following ADDs proposals
by Indorama and Alpek.
The plastics transformation sector in Brazil
said ADDs in place and those potentially
implemented in the near future increase
costs for all major thermoplastic
resins, raising input costs for manufacturers.
Unsurprisingly, the trade group representing
producers Abiquim said the
fears about higher costs due to ADDs “do not
hold up” when taking into account a beleaguered
chemicals production sector with historically
low operating rates.
Front page picture: Port of Santos in Sao
Paulo, Latin America’s largest
Source: Port of Santos Authority
Nylon28-May-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–BASF will become the sole owner
of Alsachimie, taking over the shares of former
joint venture partner DOMO Chemicals, the
German major announced on Wednesday.
Currently, BASF holds 51% of the shares and is
set to buy DOMO’s 49% stake in the company
which, subject to consultations with relevant
social bodies of Alsachimie, will close by
mid-2025.
Alsachimie was founded by the two companies in
February 2020 and situated on the French-German
border, producing key materials for polyamides,
including KA-oil, adipic acid and
hexamethylenediamine adipate (AH salt).
The purchase would complement BASF’s nylon 6,6
precursor production at its site in Chalampe,
France, and enable further backward integration
into key raw materials for the value chain in
Europe.
“By taking over the shares of our partner DOMO
Chemicals, we are further strengthening our
leading position and long-term commitment to
the nylon 6,6 value chain and paving the way
for future growth with our customers in
industries such as automotive and textiles,”
said BASF board member Stephan Kothrade.
“The intended transaction aligns with our
strategy to continue to focus on delivering
tailored polyamide solutions in the core
segments automotive, consumer goods, industrial
and electrical & electronics industries,”
said DOMO Chemicals CEO Yves Bonte.
Propylene28-May-2025
BARCELONA (ICIS)–ExxonMobil is selling its
refinery at Gravenchon, France, to Canadian
refining group North Atlantic.
The two companies have entered exclusive
negotiations for North Atlantic to acquire an
82.89% controlling interest in Esso Société
Anonyme Française SA and 100% of
ExxonMobil Chemical France.
Filing of a tender offer is expected in the
first quarter of 2026 for the deal which
includes Exxon’s refinery at the Gravenchon
site, the second largest refinery in France.
The transaction will be submitted to
local trade unions in accordance with French
law.
In 2024, ExxonMobil
sold its Fos-Sur-Mer refinery near
Marseille, France, along with fuel terminals in
Toulouse and Villette.
The company also
closed its cracker and downstream
production at Gravenchon in 2024. At the
time, the company said the site had lost more
than €500 million since 2018 and despite
efforts to improve the site’s economics, it
remained uncompetitive.
According to the ICIS Supply & Demand
Database ExxonMobil still has some small
chemicals capacities at Gravenchon and nearby
Port Gerome including propylene,
polyalphaolefins and oligomers.
Local trades union, CSEC, said in a press
release that ExxonMobil would market chemicals
and specialty products on behalf of the new
owners. ExxonMobil did not reply to a request
for confirmation of this.
It also has large base oils capacities in
France including 12,000 barrels/day at Port
Jerome and 3,200 barrels/day at Gravenchon.
In a statement released on 28 May, North
Atlantic said it has the ambition to
consolidate Gravenchon as a center of French
energy and industry for decades and to grow
North Atlantic into a transatlantic energy
champion.
Located on a 1,500-acre site in the Normandy
region of France, the combined facility is one
of the largest integrated chemical complexes in
western Europe. The refinery includes two
distillation trains, several conversion units
and associated logistics facilities. The site
has the capacity to process 230,000 barrels/day
of crude oil and other feedstocks, according to
North Atlantic.
North Atlantic said it aims to develop
Gravenchon into a green energy hub to
accelerate the deployment of low-carbon fuels
and renewable power. The company said it is
committed to maintain employment and existing
compensation and benefits.
Ted Lomond, president and CEO of North Atlantic
and president of North Atlantic France said:
“This is a pivotal moment for North Atlantic as
we enhance our transatlantic presence and
commitment to energy security through
innovative energy solutions aligned with global
energy needs”.
Ajay Parmar, ICIS director of energy and
refining said: “My view is that Exxon is
choosing to sell assets where profitability has
been and likely will continue to be dented
going forward. Refinery margins in Europe have
returned back to around their pre-COVID levels
this year, after a few years of bumper profits
post-pandemic.”
He added: “These refinery assets are less
profitable and so the company is probably
looking to divest for this reason. Exxon/Esso
also sold off the Fos-Sur-Mer refinery last
year – I think the strategy is to steadily exit
these lower margin businesses.”
Photo: Part of an oil refinery complex
(Shutterstock)
Focus article by Will
Beacham

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Polyvinyl Chloride28-May-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil has approved plans to
raise antidumping duties (ADDs) on polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) imports from the US from 8.2% to
43.7%.
The decision, taken late Tuesday, implements
one of Brazil’s highest ADDs rates. The sharp
hike in duties was taken after a proposal filed
in 2024 by local polymers major Braskem and
caustic soda and chlorine derivatives producer
Unipar, Brazil’s main PVC producers.
“The proposal to increase in ADDs applied to
imports of suspension polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
resin originating in the US was granted, due to
a change in circumstances, from 8.2% to 43.7%,”
said Gecex, Brazil’s body in charge of foreign
trade.
Gecex is also investigating potential
polyethylene (PE) dumping from the US, a
proposal brought forward by Braskem, as well as
potential polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
dumping from Malaysia and Vietnam, following
proposals by Indorama and Alpek.
The plastics transformation sector in Brazil
has said ADDs in place and those potentially
implemented in the near future are
increasing costs for all major
thermoplastic resins, raising input costs for
manufacturers.
Unsurprisingly, the trade group representing
producers
Abiquim has said the fears about higher
costs due to ADDs “do not hold up” when taking
into account a beleaguered chemicals production
sector with historic low operating rates.
Polyethylene28-May-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Fears within the Brazilian
manufacturing sector about rising input costs
and higher inflation if antidumping duties
(ADDs) are imposed on US and Canadian
polyethylene (PE) “do not hold up” when taking
into account a beleaguered chemicals production
sector, according to trade group Abiquim.
A spokesperson for the trade group, which
largely represents the chemicals producing
side, said the low operating rates across the
country’s chemical plants were partly a result
of unfair global competition, and fully
supported ADDs being imposed on US and Canadian
PE.
Brazil’s government body for foreign trade, the
Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex), is to meet on 29
May to take a decision on the matter. The
investigation into possible PE dumping by the
US and Canada
started in November after a proposal
by local polymers major Braskem, which has a
commanding voice in Abiquim.
“The narrative that specific anti-dumping
duties, applied to correct unfair trade
operations, could pose inflationary risks in
the plastics processing production chain and
affect production levels in the economy as a
whole, simply does not hold up, given that
Brazil is a price taker in thermoplastic resins
(i.e. it follows variations in the
international market),” said Abiquim.
“[Moreover] There is an average idle capacity
of 36% in the Brazilian chemicals sector (data
from 2024) that can be reversed with the
implementation of ADDs. Trade defence
investigations in Brazil follow a rigorous and
technical procedure, focusing on determining
dumping margins, damage to the domestic
industry and the causal link between the two.”
If those technical parameters are met, Gecex
will implement the ADDs “in the interest” of
the country, adding that the ADDs would
strictly follow World Trade Organization (WTO)
rules regarding unfair trade.
“Allowing dumping is not justified by any
reason, since it allows the distortion of
international trade rules, allowing the sale of
products often below production cost only to
aggressively capture the market,” added
Abiquim.
GROWING
PROTECTIONISMHowever, trade
groups representing import-heavy manufacturing
companies, in a country where half of chemicals
demand is covered by imports, have warned that
those ADDs and other protectionist measures
implemented by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s
administration increase input costs and,
ultimately, inflation.
The truth is that Lula’s cabinet does listen to
industrial producers. The main constituency of
the president’s Workers’ Party (PT) is
industrial workers, and the health of
manufacturing employment is key for its
electoral prospects.
As the 2026 general election looms, those
voters may consider their support for the PT if
manufacturing, which already came late to the
post-pandemic recovery compared with other
sectors, starts faltering again in 2025.
This is precisely the argument from the other
side. Increasing costs manufacturers could
their hit their activity and ultimately
employment in manufacturing as a whole could be
negatively affected.
In a written statement to ICIS this week, Jose
Ricardo Roriz, president of the trade group
representing plastic transformers Abiplast,
reaffirmed his opposition to protectionist
measures which increase costs for importers.
But that side of the argument has so far failed
to turn its lobbying into concrete actions.
Since he took office in January 2023, Lula’s
cabinet has approved most of the protectionist
measures chemical producers demanded.
In 2023, it reintroduced
a tax break for the purchase of inputs
by chemical companies, called REIQ, which was
withdrawn by the previous center-right
administration.
In 2024, the administration
re-imposed ADDs on US-origin PP and
approved higher
import tariffs on dozens of chemicals.
Meanwhile, Gecex is investigating another
proposal to implement ADDs on polyvinyl
chloride (PVC), a proposal by Braskem and
caustic soda and chlorine derivatives producer
Unipar.
In April, Gecex also began a probe into
potential polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
dumping from Malaysia and Vietnam, a proposal
brought forward by Indorama and Alpek.
Brazil’s Congress also approved a bill in April
contemplating state subsidies or credit lines
at a favorable rate for chemicals companies,
called Presiq, a program that could be the
“savior” of struggling chemicals producers,
according to Abiquim’s director general Andre
Passos in an
interview with ICIS.
Ethylene27-May-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US delay of its proposed
50% tariffs on EU imports will still leave its
polymers vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.
The new deadline is 9 July.
For US exports, the EU has already drafted a
list of targets for retaliatory tariffs, part
of its second round of €95 billion in tariffs
on US imports. A full list of all the proposed
imports can be found
here.
This is on top of the first round of €21
billion in tariffs on US imports. A full list
of all the proposed imports can be found
here.
In all, the EU could impose tariffs on nearly
every major polymer from the US, including
polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP),
polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and
polyethylene terephthalate (PET).
The EU is also considering tariffs on US
imports of surfactants, fatty acids, fatty
alcohols, and tall oil, a feedstock used to
make renewable diesel, sustainable aviation
fuel (SAF) and renewable naphtha.
The following table lists some of the many
plastics and chemicals proposed on the EU’s
second round of tariffs.
CN CODE
DESCRIPTION
28151200
sodium hydroxide “caustic soda” in
aqueous solution “soda lye or liquid
soda”
29053926
butane-1,4-diol or tetramethylene glycol
[1,4-butanediol] having a bio-based
carbon content of 100% by mass
29091910
tert-butyl ethyl ether
(ethyl-tertio-butyl-ether, etbe)
29152100
acetic acid
29153200
vinyl acetate
29291000
isocyanates
32061100
pigments and preparations based on
titanium dioxide of a kind used for
colouring any material or produce
colorant preparations, containing >=
80% by weight of titanium dioxide
calculated on the dry matter (excl.
preparations of heading 3207, 3208, 3209,
3210, 3212, 3213 and 3215)
32061900
pigments and preparations based on
titanium dioxide of a kind used for
colouring any material or produce
colorant preparations, containing <
80% by weight of titanium dioxide
calculated on the dry matter (excl.
preparations of heading 3207, 3208, 3209,
3210, 3212, 3213 and 3215)
34023100
linear alkylbenzene sulphonic acids and
their salts
34023990
anionic organic surface-active agents,
whether or not put up for retail sale
(excl. linear alkylbenzene sulphonic
acids and their salts, and aqueous
solution containing by weight 30-50% of
disodium alkyl
[oxydi(benzenesulphonate)])
34024100
cationic organic surface-active agents,
whether or not put up for retail sale
34024200
non-ionic organic surface-active agents,
whether or not put up for retail sale
(excl. soap)
34024900
organic surface-active agents, whether or
not put up for retail sale (excl. soap,
anionic, cationic and non-ionic)
34025010
surface-active preparations put up for
retail sale (excl. organic surface-active
preparations in the form of bars, cakes,
moulded pieces or shapes, and organic
surface-active products and preparations
for washing the skin in the form of
liquid or cream)
38030010
crude tall oil
38030090
tall oil, whether or not refined (excl.
crude tall oil)
38170050
linear alkylbenzene
38170080
mixed alkylbenzenes and mixed
alkylnaphthalenes, produced by the
alkylation of benzene and naphthalene
(excl. linear alkylbenzene and mixed
isomers of cyclic hydrocarbons)
38231100
stearic acid, industrial
38231200
oleic acid, industrial
38231300
tall oil fatty acids, industrial
38231910
fatty acids, distilled
38231930
fatty acid distillate
38231990
fatty acids, industrial, monocarboxylic;
acid oils from refining (excl. stearic
acid, oleic acid and tall oil fatty
acids, distilled fatty acids and fatty
acid distillate)
38237000
fatty alcohols, industrial
38260010
fatty-acid mono-alkyl esters, containing
by weight => 96,5 % of esters “famae”
38260090
biodiesel and mixtures thereof, not
containing or containing < 70 % by
weight of petroleum oils or oils obtained
from bituminous minerals (excl.
fatty-acid mono-alkyl esters containing
by weight >= 96,5 % of esters “famae”)
39013000
ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymers, in
primary forms
39019080
polymers of ethylene, in primary forms
(excl. polyethylene, ethylene-vinyl
acetate copolymers,
ethylene-alpha-olefins copolymers having
a specific gravity of < 0,94, ionomer
resin consisting of a salt of a
terpolymer of ethylene with isobutyl
acrylate and methacrylic acid and a-b-a
block copolymer of ethylene of
polystyrene, ethylene-butylene copolymer
and polystyrene, containing by weight
<= 35% of styrene, in blocks of
irregular shape, lumps, powders,
granules, flakes and similar bulk forms)
39021000
polypropylene, in primary forms
39023000
propylene copolymers, in primary forms
39029010
a-b-a block copolymer of propylene or of
other olefins, of polystyrene,
ethylene-butylene copolymer and
polystyrene, containing by weight <=
35% of styrene, in blocks of irregular
shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes
and similar bulk forms
39029020
polybut-1-ene, a copolymer of but-1-ene
with ethylene containing by weight <=
10% of ethylene, or a blend of
polybut-1-ene with polyethylene and/or
polypropylene containing by weight <=
10% of polyethylene and/or <= 25% of
polypropylene, in blocks of irregular
shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes
and similar bulk forms
39031100
expansible polystyrene, in primary forms
39031900
polystyrene, in primary forms (excl.
expansible)
39032000
styrene-acrylonitrile copolymers “san”,
in primary forms
39033000
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene
copolymers “abs”, in primary forms
39039090
polymers of styrene, in primary forms
(excl. polystyrene, styrene-acrylonitrile
copolymers “san”,
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene “abs”,
copolymer solely of styrene with allyl
alcohol, of an acetyl value of >= 175
and brominated polystyrene, containing by
weight >= 58% but <= 71% of
bromine, in blocks of irregular shape,
lumps, powders, granules, flakes and
similar bulk forms)
39041000
poly”vinyl chloride”, in primary forms,
not mixed with any other substances
39042100
non-plasticised poly”vinyl chloride”, in
primary forms, mixed with other
substances
39042200
plasticised poly”vinyl chloride”, in
primary forms, mixed with other
substances
39051200
poly”vinyl acetate”, in aqueous
dispersion
39051900
poly”vinyl acetate”, in primary forms
(excl. in aqueous dispersion)
39052100
vinyl acetate copolymers, in aqueous
dispersion
39052900
vinyl acetate copolymers, in primary
forms (excl. in aqueous dispersion)
39053000
poly”vinyl alcohol”, in primary forms,
whether or not containing unhydrolyzed
acetate groups
39061000
poly”methyl methacrylate”, in primary
forms
39071000
polyacetals, in primary forms
39072911
polyethylene glycols, in primary forms
39072920
polyether alcohols, in primary forms
(excl. bis(polyoxyethylene)
methylphosphonate and polyethylene
glycols)
39072999
polyethers in primary forms (excl.
polyether alcohols, polyacetals and
copolymer of 1- chloro-2,3-epoxypropane
with ethylene oxide)
39073000
epoxide resins, in primary forms
39074000
polycarbonates, in primary forms
39075000
alkyd resins, in primary forms
39076100
poly”ethylene terephthalate”, in primary
forms, having a viscosity number of >=
78 ml/g
39076900
poly”ethylene terephthalate”, in primary
forms, having a viscosity number of <
78 ml/g
39079110
unsaturated liquid polyesters, in primary
forms (excl. polycarbonates, alkyd
resins, poly”ethylene terephthalate” and
poly”lactic acid”)
39079190
unsaturated polyesters, in primary forms
(excl. liquid, and polycarbonates, alkyd
resins, poly”ethylene terephthalate” and
poly”lactic acid”)
39079980
polyesters, saturated, in primary forms
(excl. polycarbonates, alkyd resins,
poly”ethylene terephthalate”, poly”lactic
acid”, poly”ethylene
naphthalene-2,6-dicarboxylate” and
thermoplastic liquid crystal aromatic
polyester copolymers)
39089000
polyamides, in primary forms (excl.
polyamides-6, -11, -12, -6,6, -6,9, -6,10
and -6,12)
39091000
urea resins and thiourea resins, in
primary forms
39092000
melamine resins, in primary forms
39093100
poly”methylene phenyl isocyanate” “crude
mdi, polymeric mdi”, in primary forms
39094000
phenolic resins, in primary forms
39095010
polyurethane of
2,2′-“tert-butylimino”diethanol and
4,4′-methylenedicyclohexyl diisocyanate,
in the form of a solution in
n,n-dimethylacetamide, containing by
weight >= 50% of polymer
39095090
polyurethanes in primary forms (excl.
polyurethane of
2,2′-“tert-butylimino”diethanol and
4,4′-methylenedicyclohexyl diisocyanate,
in the form of a solution in
n,ndimethylacetamide)
Source: EU
CN CODE
DESCRIPTION
39011010
linear polyethylene with a specific
gravity of < 0,94, in primary forms
39011090
polyethylene with a specific gravity of
< 0,94, in primary forms (excl. linear
polyethylene)
39012010
polyethylene in blocks of irregular
shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes
and similar bulk forms, of a specific
gravity of >= 0,958 at 23°c,
containing <= 50 mg/kg of aluminium,
<= 2 mg/kg of calcium, of chromium, of
iron, of nickel and of titanium each and
<= 8 mg/kg of vanadium, for the
manufacture of chlorosulphonated
polyethylene
39012090
polyethylene with a specific gravity of
>= 0,94, in primary forms (excl.
polyethylene in blocks of irregular
shape, lumps, powders, granules, flakes
and similar bulk forms, of a specific
gravity of >= 0,958 at 23°c,
containing <= 50 mg/kg of aluminium,
<= 2 mg/kg of calcium, of chromium, of
iron, of nickel and of titanium each and
<= 8 mg/kg of vanadium, for the
manufacture of chlorosulphonated
polyethylene)
39014000
ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers, having
a specific gravity of < 0,94 , in
primary forms
39081000
polyamides-6, -11, -12, -6,6, -6,9, -6,10
or -6,12, in primary forms
Source: EU
Polybutylene Terephthalate27-May-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The plastics transformation
sector in Brazil is facing increased costs for
all major thermoplastic resins as antidumping
investigations target imports from key supplier
countries, the president of trade group
Abiplast told ICIS.
Jose Ricardo Roriz said potential antidumping
duties (ADDs) against polyethylene (PE) imports
from the US and Canada, for which a final
decision could be made as soon as this
week, will raise cost pressures in the
manufacturing sector.
The government body that focuses on overseas
trade, the Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex), will
meet on 29 May and several sources expect it to
make a decision on ADDs during the meeting.
The proposal for ADDs on US and Canadian PE was
brought forward by polymers major Braskem in
July 2024, prompting Gecex to open its probe in
November 2024.
If approved, the ADDs will complete antidumping
coverage on all principal thermoplastic resins
used in manufacturing, including PE,
polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
and polyethylene terephthalate (PET).
“The impact [of the ADDs on PE] will create
pressure on costs, which ultimately affects not
only the plastic transformation sector, but all
industrial chains that use these products as
inputs,” said Roriz.
If enforced, the duties will pose a significant
challenge for the manufacturing sector which
relies heavily on imported resins to produce a
wide range of products including construction,
automotives, packaging and consumer goods.
Roriz said the ADDs or other trade defense
mechanisms are being misused and reiterated
Abiplast’s staunch opposition to them.
“We are against these movements that turn trade
defense instruments into simple tools for
closing and reserving markets,” he said.
GROWING
PROTECTIONISMGecex is
investigating another proposal for PVC ADDs
brought about by Braskem and caustic soda and
chlorine derivatives producer Unipar, who claim
they are subject to unfair competition.
In April, Gecex also began a probe into
potential PET dumping from Malaysia and
Vietnam, a proposal brought forward by Indorama
and Alpek.
In the meantime, the Brazilian government
re-imposed ADDs on
US-origin PP last year.
In 2023, it reintroduced a tax
break for the purchase of inputs by
chemical companies, called REIQ, which was
withdrawn by the previous centre-right
administration.
In October 2024, the government approved
higher import tariffs
on dozens of chemicals.
Earlier this year, it also approved programs
contemplating state subsidies or credit lines
at a favorable rate for chemicals companies
such
as Presiq.
Petrochemicals27-May-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on
Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges,
which looks at the impact of rising interest
rates on key chemicals markets – housing and
autos.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
Crude Oil27-May-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s chemicals
production declined 3.2% year on year in April
amid tariff-led front-loading, official data
showed on 26 May, while a pause in ‘reciprocal’
tariffs could support further growth in H2
2025.
Petrochemicals production falls 3.4% in
April year on year
Overall chemicals cluster output down 3.1%
in Jan-Apr
2025 GDP forecast of 2.0% in anticipation
of fiscal measures – Nomura
The “other chemicals” segment grew 4.1%, driven
by increased fragrance output for consumer
products, while petrochemicals, petroleum and
specialties segments declined by 3.4%, 4.6% and
5.7% respectively last month, the Economic
Development Board (EDB) said.
High inventory drove declines in petrochemicals
and petroleum refined products output, and
maintenance shutdowns affected the production
of mineral oil additives in the specialties
sector.
Overall, the chemicals cluster’s output
declined by 3.1% in the first four months of
2025 compared to the same period last year.
Singapore is a leading petrochemical
manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia,
with more than 100 international chemical
companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell,
based at its Jurong Island hub.
Overall, general manufacturing output grew 5.9%
year on year in April, declining from the 6.8%
growth figure recorded in March.
Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output rose
by 8.1%.
On a three-month moving average basis, overall
output rose by 4.6% compared to the same period
last year.
Seasonally adjusted month-on-month figures
showed a 5.3% increase in April, and excluding
biomedical manufacturing, a 4.7% increase.
“Growth momentum in the second half of 2025
could continue to experience some bouts of
resilience given the current pause on
reciprocal tariffs and … truce on US-China
trade tensions opens a window for continued
front-loading by exporters,” said Jester Koh,
Associate Economist at Singapore-based UOB
Global Economics & Markets Research.
However, Koh warned of “payback effects” from
front-loading that could result in an even more
protracted decline in trade and manufacturing
activity in the later half of the year, and
into the first half of 2026.
UOB raised Singapore’s 2025 growth forecast to
1.7% from 1.5% previously, but lowered its 2026
growth projection to 1.4%, from 1.6%.
Concurring with Singapore’s own GDP growth
forecast of 0-2% for 2025, Nomura maintained
their forecast of 2.0%, in anticipation of
large fiscal support measures, which would be
worth around 1.0% of GDP.
Focus article by Jonathan
Yee
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