HOUSTON (ICIS)–US July sales of new light vehicles rose year on year and month on month, beating industry expectations, but the chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) is maintaining its full-year forecast of 15.3 million units. Year to date, US sales of new light autos are up by 4.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis, as shown in the following chart from NADA. NADA said the year-on-year change could have been larger, but July 2024 sales data included sales that would have occurred in June 2024 were it not for the massive software outage that affected many dealerships across the country. Affordability continues to create headwinds for the industry. NADA cited data from JD Power & Associates estimating that tariffs are adding $4,275 in costs for vehicles, on average, keeping prices high and continuing to weigh on affordability. “Many OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] reported significant impacts to their bottom line due to tari­ffs,” Patrick Manzi, NADA chief economist, said. “It remains to be seen how long OEMs can absorb the price hikes before passing the costs along to consumers. We expect to have more clarity on changing OEM pricing strategies in the fall as 2025 models transition to 2026 models.” During a conference call to discuss Q2 earnings, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the company expects tariffs to be a $2 billion headwind in 2025. General Motors posted a 31.6% drop in Q2 adjusted earnings, citing $1.1 billion in tariff costs net impact. Industry analysts were anticipating increased activity in the electric vehicle (EV) market as just a few months remain before government tax incentives are set to expire, but while sales of battery EVs (BEVs) rose by 22.7% from the previous month, they were flat compared with the same month a year ago. The same is true for market share year-to-date for BEVs, which totaled 7.4% – also flat year on year, NADA said. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids – some of which are also eligible for the EV tax credit – saw sales and market share decline slightly year on year. The most popular alternative-fuel segment continues to be hybrids, according to NADA, which posted a 37.7% year-on-year sales gain in July 2025. Year-to-date, hybrids have also picked up 3 percentage points of market share, as shown in the following chart from NADA. DEMAND OUTLOOK Jincy Varghese, ICIS demand analyst, said the auto industry remains exposed to trade tensions and is currently navigating a turbulent transition. “EV sales are growing, but consumer interest remains mixed because of concerns over charging infrastructure, among others,” Varghese said. “The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) forecast EV sales will exceed 20 million vehicles worldwide, or in other words, one in every four vehicles sold will be EV. Meanwhile, traditional ICE vehicle production remained below pandemic levels in North America and Europe.” Oxford Economics said in its North American 2025 outlook that higher costs and slower economic growth from the reciprocal tariff policy are expected to contribute to a 4% decline in sales for 2025. “Optimal production schedules will vary by manufacturer, but tariffs will likely have a significant distortionary effect on North American production in 2025 and beyond,” Oxford said. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Meanwhile, EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Focus article by Adam Yanelli Please also visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco’s net income in the second quarter fell by 22% year on year to Saudi riyal (SR) 85 billion ($22.7 billion), weighed down by a combination of lower sales and higher operating costs. in SR billions Q2 2025 Q2 2024 % Change H1 2025 H1 2024 % Change Sales 407.14 470.61 -13.5 784.48 827.75 -5.23 Operating profit 167.09 206.45 -19.1 358.45 408.50 -12.3 Net Profit 85.02 109.01 -22.0 182.57 211.28 -13.6 Its total revenue in the first six months of 2025 fell by 5% year on year on lower crude oil and chemical prices, partially offset by higher volumes sold, the Saudi oil and refining major said in a filing on the Saudi bourse on Tuesday. Aramco’s adjusted net income for the first half of 2025 was SR190.8 billion, with total adjusting items of SR8.2 billion, primarily consisting of impairments and write-downs, losses on sales, retirements and disposals, and adjustments related to joint ventures and associates, the company said. Aramco’s average realized crude oil prices in Q2 2025 stood at $66.7/bbl, down from $85.7/bbl in the same period last year. “Despite geopolitical headwinds, we continued to supply energy with exceptional reliability to our customers, both domestically and around the world, said Aramco president & CEO Amin Nasser in a statement. “Market fundamentals remain strong, and we anticipate oil demand in the second half of 2025 to be more than two million barrels per day higher than the first half,” Nasser added. “Our long-term strategy is consistent with our belief that hydrocarbons will continue to play a vital role in global energy and chemicals markets, and we are ready to play our part in meeting customer demand over the short and the long term.” Saudi Aramco’s Q2 capital expenditures of $2.81 billion supported “the steady and on-track progress of capital projects” such as the construction of the Shaheen S-Oil refinery-integrated petrochemical steam cracker, and other projects. ($1 = SR3.75)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Let’s be honest: nobody knows the outcome of a potential “Trump 2.0” trade war. The impact could be anything from benign to a global economic crisis on par with the Great Depression. But what we do know—what falls into Donald Rumsfeld’s category of “known knowns”—is that the global petrochemicals industry is facing its deepest downturn on record. This is a prolonged collapse in margins caused by a massive oversupply of capacity, largely because the consensus got China’s demand growth wrong. So, what’s next? The easy conditions of the 1992-2021 Supercycle are over, and we are entering a new, volatile era. We’ve summarised what we believe are the five key trends shaping the future of global petrochemicals: Consolidation is Inevitable:A major wave of consolidation is coming. Smaller commodity players without state support or competitive feedstocks will struggle, forcing them to move downstream into specialty chemicals and composites. AI as a Critical Tool: The rise of AI is perfectly timed. It’s not just for efficiency; AI will be a vital tool for innovators to discover new composite materials and build more efficient, sustainable supply chains. End of the Supercycle: The old seasonal models no longer hold. Long-term demand is being driven by complex forces: geopolitical shifts, demographic divergence, and climate change. The “unknown unknowns” of a second trade war only add to this uncertainty. Climate Change Reshapes Demand: We must prepare for climate change to fundamentally alter consumption patterns. AI can help us model everything from mass migration and new housing needs to the demand for sustainable urban infrastructure. Policy Will Define AI’s Impact: The ultimate effect of AI on petrochemicals consumption will hinge on government policy. Will AI-driven abundance alleviate poverty, or will job losses cause new economic problems? The answers will shape future demand. This is a confusing and complex time, but by accepting these realities, we can work together towards solutions. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US crops continued to mature towards harvest with corn acreage having reached 88% silking and soybean blooming at 85%, according to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The rate of corn silking is ahead of the 86% achieved in 2024 but trails the five-year average of 89%. Corn at the dough stage is up to 42%, which is behind the 44% rate from the 2024 season but is above the five-year average of 40%. In the first update on corn dented, the USDA said there is 6% of the crop at this stage, which is equal to the level from 2024 and the five-year average of 6%. Corn conditions are unchanged with 2% very poor, 5% poor, 20% fair, 53% good and 20% excellent. Soybean blooming has climbed to 85%, which is on par with the 85% level from the 2024 season but is behind the five-year average of 86%. There is 58% of the soybean crop setting pods, which is ahead of the 2024 mark of 57% and matches the five-year average of 58%. For soybean conditions, the amount of very poor increased to 2%, with the crop listed as poor still at 5% and fair remaining at 24%. The level of good decreased to 54% with the crops deemed excellent unchanged at 15%. Winter wheat harvest has reached 86% completed.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US-based pigment producer Tronox became the latest company to lower its dividend, joining Dow. Tronox is lowering its dividend by 60%, reducing capital expenditures to less than $330 million and lowering its full year guidance. The following table compares the company’s current guidance to the previous one it announced in April. Figures are in millions of dollars. Current Previous Revenue 3,000-3,100 3,000-3,400 Adjusted EBITDA 410-460 525-625 Source: Tronox Tronox shares have fallen by more than 40% in the past five trading days. The company is assuming that sales volumes and prices of titanium dioxide (TiO2) and zircon will fall. Tronox expects to partially offset the declines by strategic sales of other products and better production costs during the second half of the year. For the second quarter, company sales fell year on year, and it swung to a net loss. Demand fell for most of the company’s end markets. Competition increased, and the coatings season was weaker than anticipated. Tronox said higher interest rates and uncertainties about tariffs are weighing on consumer spending. DOW ALSO CUT DIVIDENDEarlier in July, Dow announced plans to cut its dividend in half because the downturn in the chemical industry is entering its third year, and it will last longer than expected. In November 2024, Celanese announced plans to cut its dividend by 95% after reporting Q3 2024 earnings well below guidance.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Italy’s Enilive, a subsidiary of Eni, and South Korea’s LG Chem have started constructing a new hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Daesan, South Korea, the companies said on Monday in a joint statement. The 400,000 tonnes/year plant is scheduled for completion in 2027 and will be built by LG-Eni BioRefining, a joint venture (JV) between Enilive and LG Chem. The HVO and SAF are made from hydrogenating sustainable vegetable oils such as used cooking oil (UCO) and other waste and residues through Ecofining, a technology developed by Italian refiner Eni in collaboration with Honeywell UOP. Target applications will include acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) for electronics and automobiles, ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) for sporting goods, and super absorbent polymers (SAP) for hygiene products, the companies said. “LG Chem is transforming its portfolio to build a low-carbon foundation that ensures both a progressively more sustainable growth and profitability,” Shin Hak-cheol, CEO of LG Chem, said in a statement. “The upcoming biorefining plant in Daesan will contribute to reach our 2030 target to increase our biorefining capacity to over 5 million tonnes/year, with the potential to produce more than 2 million tonnes/year of SAF,” said Enilive’s CEO Stefano Ballista in a statement. Enilive has operational biorefining plants in Italy and the US, and is building new plants in both Italy and Malaysia.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 1 August. Europe BDO to remain in the grip of low demand, uncertain supply outlook Players in Europe’s butanediol (BDO) market have faced challenging conditions in nearly every month for the past three years or so, and the situation looks unlikely to change in the second half of 2025. Europe polymer sector welcomes trade clarity, but US exports likely to drop European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) players are content to finally have a deal agreed between the US and EU on trade, but there is concern over some key missing details. Changing petrochemicals landscape drives need for more consolidation – OMV CEO Pressure caused by global overcapacity plus the impact of the tariff war in shifting supply chains mean that more consolidation is required to create strong, global chemical industry leaders, according to the CEO of Austria’s OMV. Europe PP players face testing H2 with ballooning output and limited demand 2025 has seen polypropylene (PP) players in Europe face a double complication – stagnant-to-soft demand and rapidly expanding supply. 2025 will go down as the largest single-year increase in global production, in an already oversupplied market. Europe methanol faces supply overhang amid flat H2 demand Oversupply and flat demand are expected to dominate the European methanol market landscape for the second half (H2) of 2025. EU chems subdued on EU-US trade deal as tariffs concern continues Trading in European chemicals company shares was subdued on Monday in the wake of the EU agreeing a trade deal with the US, with trade group VCI claiming the proposed tariffs are too high for the sector. Europe’s Group I base oils face challenges in tight supply climate European Group I base oils supply is likely to remain limited for the rest of the year amid some structural issues with availability, though dampened demand could offset some of the impact.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s petrochemical shipments declined by 10.1% year on year in July while semiconductors and automotive exports surged, official data showed on 1 August. Overall exports up by 5.9% year on year amid semiconductor demand Exports to China down, up for US & other regions July manufacturing PMI falls to 48.0 – S&P Global Petrochemical exports in July fell largely due to declining international oil prices as well as a global supply glut, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) said in a statement. The country’s overall exports rose by 5.9% year on year to $60.8 billion in July – the largest June value on record – while imports rose by 0.7% year on year to $54.2 billion. The trade balance stood at a surplus of $6.6 billion. Semiconductors hit a historic high for July, up 31.6% year on year to $14.7 billion, driven by rising fixed prices and sustained global demand for high-value memory products. Meanwhile, July automobile exports grew 8.8% year on year to $5.8 billion for the second consecutive month, due to strong demand for hybrid electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. There was an increase in exports to six out of South Korea’s nine largest export markets, including the US and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the MOTIE said. Exports to China decreased 3.0% year on year in July amid declining petrochemical, general machinery and wireless communication devices shipments. While US exports in July grew 1.4% year on year, driven by semiconductor exports, exports of tariffed goods such as steel and auto parts continued to decline. Steel tariffs are currently set at 50%, while South Korea managed on 30 July to reduce auto tariffs to 15% from 25% previously. MANUFACTURING EXTENDS CONTRACTION South Korea’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped in July to 48.0 from 48.7 in June, according to data released by S&P Global on 1 August. A number below 50 signifies contraction. July marked the sixth consecutive month of declines in production volumes. “Production volumes decreased at a stronger rate than that in June, and at a solid pace overall,” said S&P Global. Firms often cited domestic economic weakness, particularly in the autos and construction sectors while foreign demand continued to decrease. “Price pressures also intensified at the start of the third quarter, with businesses recorded the fastest rise in input prices in four months,” said Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Firms often noted that higher raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations – both of which were linked to tariff increases – added to cost burdens during the month,” Bhatti added. US-KOREA TRADE DEAL AVOIDS WORST-CASE SCENARIO South Korea’s trade deal with the US managed to lower tariffs to 15% from 25% previously, although it failed to secure a decrease in steel, aluminum and copper tariffs. But the 15% rate will still impact on the market as it is higher than the 10% rate during the past few months. The tariffs on South Korea became lower than or equal to their major competitors, also eliminating uncertainty, said Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Kim Jung-kwan in a statement on 1 August. However, he warned that trade conditions facing South Korean firms will be “different and challenging” compared to the past. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 1 August. OUTLOOK: Asia naphtha hit by high supplies; China demand to stay firm By Li Peng Seng 28-Jul-25 09:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha market is expected to receive more cargoes arriving from the west and the Middle East in the next one to two months, at a time when alternative feedstock liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is displacing naphtha demand. OUTLOOK: Asia chemical freight hunkers down for US tariff disruption By Hwee Hwee Tan 28-Jul-25 12:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Cargo flows are increasing, lifting freight rates for some trade lanes albeit gains are still capped by macroeconomic uncertainty spilling over from recent US tariff moves. INSIGHT: China chemicals phase out plan aims to boost competitive edge By Jenny Yi, Amy Yu, Lina Xu and Jimmy Zhang 28-Jul-25 16:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The market was alerted by a notice on Conducting a Survey and Assessment of Old Facilities in the Petrochemical Industry which was officially released in China on July 16, 2025, with Shandong and Hunan provinces subsequently deploying similar measures. Malaysia economy to grow 4-4.8% in 2025 amid tariff uncertainty – central bank By Jonathan Yee 28-Jul-25 17:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s economy is projected to grow by 4-4.8% in 2025 amid US tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, down from a previous forecast of 4.5-5.5% made in March, said Malaysia’s central bank. OUTLOOK: Asia methanol supply ample but demand concerns remain By Damini Dabholkar 29-Jul-25 09:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Methanol supply in Asia normalized in early July, with the restart of plants in Iran post-conflict, as well as some from planned shutdowns in southeast Asia. OUTLOOK: SE Asia PE faces challenging times amid tariffs, increasing supply By Izham Ahmad 30-Jul-25 10:02 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face a challenging environment in the second half of 2025 as it grapples with likelihood of new import tariffs in the US and with additional capacity expected to enter an already oversupplied market. OUTLOOK: Geopolitical issues still weigh on Mideast PE, PP demand By Nadim Salamoun 30-Jul-25 14:30 DUBAI (ICIS)–Sentiment in both the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and East Mediterranean (East Med) polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) markets has yet to fully recover from the recent Iran-Israel war despite the ceasefire agreement in late June. OUTLOOK: SE Asia propylene market to see oversupply, weak PP demand in H2 By Julia Tan 31-Jul-25 10:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Propylene (C3) markets in southeast Asia are bracing for headwinds for the rest of 2025, as intense downstream competition is expected to weigh on affordability levels for C3 feedstock. Trump says 25% tariffs to apply to India as negotiations continue By Priya Jestin 31-Jul-25 13:07 MUMBAI (ICIS)–Trade negotiations are still ongoing between the US and India, but US President Donald Trump announced in a social media post that 25% tariffs would apply to the south Asian nation starting 1 August. OUTLOOK: Asia SM margins may hold; China eyes exports amid temporary oversupply By Luffy Wu 01-Aug-25 10:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s styrene monomer (SM) production margins improved in H1 2025 and could remain healthy throughout the year given weakness in upstream benzene market.