HOUSTON (ICIS)–Researchers at Colorado State University’s Weather and Climate Research department maintained their prediction of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a probability that 33% of major storms could make landfall in the US Gulf. The CSU team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on 1 June and runs through 30 November. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher. Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/hour 2 96-110 miles/hour 3 111-129 miles/hour 4 130-156 miles/hour 5 157+ miles/hour While still very early in the season, researchers said it is showing characteristics as seen in 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021. In 1996, there were six major hurricanes, which was the most since 1950, but none entered the US Gulf. In 1999, five storms reached Category 4, with none threatening the US Gulf. Storms in both years made landfall on the US East Coast in North Carolina. Hurricane Ike, one of five major hurricanes in 2008, made landfall in Galveston near the entrance to the Houston Ship Channel, causing chemical plants and refineries in the region to struggle to restart. Hurricane Irene was the only hurricane to make landfall in 2011, striking near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. It was one of seven hurricanes that season, of which four became major hurricanes. In 2021, there were 21 named storms with seven becoming hurricanes, four of which were major storms and several entered the US Gulf. Hurricane Ida was the most destructive, making landfall in Louisiana and leading to many plant shutdowns. The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025: 51% for the entire US coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%) 26% for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%) 33% for the US Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%) 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47% Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida – a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics. Additional reporting by Al Greenwood

Egypt continues to ramp up LNG imports as it lines up long-term LNG import capacity Tenders could tighten the LNG balance, but Egypt has a pattern of overbuying Egypt is also in ongoing discussions to secure LNG supplies from 2025-2028 LONDON (ICIS)–Egypt is ramping up its demand for LNG imports, with a consequential impact on the global LNG market. Egypt has swung back to being an LNG importer over the last year. It is already seeking a high number of cargoes this year, as well as planning further imports between now and 2028. Following a deal with majors TotalEnergies and Shell earlier this year, its demand may be here to stay. “They initially [tendered for] over 100 cargoes, then it turned out to be 40-60 cargoes,” one source said, while two other sources said around 40 cargoes were awarded. Concerns about the potential market price impact prompted Egypt to lower the number of cargoes it sought in its most recent tender, the source added. With the previous 60 cargoes from TotalEnergies and Shell, total 2025 demand could be around 100-120 cargoes, or around 7.0-8.4 million tonnes of LNG – a significant increase in both volume and pace compared with 2024. This comes as Egypt is in ongoing discussions to buy LNG supplies from 2025 to 2028, sources said, with one saying that state-owned EGAS has received 14 offers for supply ranging from 18 months to three years. The cargoes in the latest 40-60 cargo tender were heard awarded to Vitol, Shell, Hartree, Aramco and “a few others” at a premium of around $0.70/MMBtu to the benchmark TTF. The premium reflects the country’s credit risk and a nine-month deferred payment profile, one trader said, which is longer than the six-month deferred payment scheme seen in previous Egyptian tenders. “For Egypt, buyers need FOB cargoes, so there is a natural premium to be paid in exchange for losing flexibility,” a second trader said. TIGHTER COMPETITION Egyptian demand is expected to peak in summer, when gas-for-power demand is higher due to higher cooling needs. “Total Egyptian demand this year is estimated to be 110 cargoes,” one trader said, which would equate to around 7.7 million tonnes of LNG. Another trader said that spot LNG discounts into northwest Europe could narrow further following the Egyptian tender. “I think the [Egyptian tender] will make the market tighter than expected. I expect the discounts in Europe to narrow,” the trader said. A third trader said European LNG spot discounts for July-August deliveries had already narrowed slightly off the back of the Egyptian and Argentinean buy tenders, although further feedback this week suggests discounts are so far stable. The global LNG market is expected to face a shortfall of 2.1 million tonnes over the summer, according to ICIS LNG Foresight, while 2025 as a whole is projected to be oversupplied by 3 million tonnes. However, according to traders, it is challenging to say if the Egyptian tenders have been fully priced into the market due to Egypt’s option to push back or divert cargoes, potentially easing the call on LNG. Some contracted cargoes for Q4 2024 were pushed back to Q1 2025 or diverted due to lower-than-anticipated demand. “I am thinking that maybe their pattern is always to overbuy. If no prompt demand, they will defer [the cargoes],” one source said. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi recently directed the government to “pre-emptively take whatever needs necessary to ensure stable electricity flow”. One report said that Egypt is negotiating to import 160 shipments through June 2026, which would represent another step up in imports from the current pace and increase. This comes as Egypt has also stepped up imports of cheaper energy, securing one million tonnes of fuel oil for delivery in May and June to restart its legacy power stations over the summer. Ultimately, spot LNG demand versus supply will be key in determining competitiveness between hubs in the short term. Asian demand has been low this year, especially Chinese demand, with sufficient pipeline gas in China denting downstream LNG demand. LONG-TERM LNG IMPORT CAPACITY Cairo’s latest moves to secure long-term import capacity provide further evidence that it sees domestic gas output remaining at low levels for the foreseeable future. ICIS senior LNG analyst Alex Froley said that Egypt’s flip from a mid-sized exporter to a significant importer has happened quickly. “Even those expecting an increase in imports would have been unlikely to factor in the country hiring as many as four FSRUs in a short space of time,” he said. The Energos Eskimo FSRU recently departed Jordan’s Aqaba terminal as it prepares to begin a new 10-year charter with Egypt’s EGAS, ICIS data shows. The unit is expected to undergo some modifications before starting operations later this summer, one broker said. Energos Eskimo will join the existing Hoegh Galleon FSRU off Egypt, while the Energos Power FSRU and a BOTAS-chartered FSRU are also expected to be deployed soon. FUNDING GAP NARROWS Traders have questioned how Egypt can afford the number of tendered LNG cargoes, given its reliance on Saudi Arabia and Libya to pay for previous cargoes. This financial challenge, compounded by years of sluggish growth, is reflected in the consistent premiums that Egypt has had to pay in its LNG buy tenders. However, local urea producers have ramped up output and exports again in early June, an important source of foreign exchange, following periods of gas shortages. Egypt has also taken further steps to cover part of its funding gap, securing a $1.2 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January. In May, the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement to provide €4 billion in macro-financial assistance to Egypt. Together with the IMF programme for the 2024-2027 period, the assistance would help Egypt cover “part of its external funding gap”, the Parliament said. Additional reporting by Clare Pennington

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADNOC L&S) on Wednesday said that it has entered into a $531-million strategic partnership with polyolefins major Borouge to boost UAE’s production and export of petrochemicals. As part of the partnership, Borouge has awarded ADNOC L&S a 15-year contract to manage logistics on up to 70% of its annual production, “which will increase significantly following the completion of the Borouge 4 plant expansion”, ADNOC L&S said in a filing on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). ADNOC L&S is a unit of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), which holds a 54% stake in Borouge. Borouge operates an integrated polyolefin complex at Al Ruwais Industrial City in Abu Dhabi. “As Borouge plans to ramp up production capacity by 1.4 million tonnes/year by the end of 2026 through its Borouge 4 mega project, Borouge will become the world’s largest single-site polyolefin complex,” it said. The agreement covers port management, container handling, and feeder container ship services for the Borouge container terminal in Al Ruwais Industrial City. ADNOC L&S will deploy a minimum of two dedicated container feeder ships to transport Borouge’s products from Al Ruwais to the deepwater ports of Jebel Ali in Dubai and Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi. “The mutually beneficial service agreement will deliver a minimum guaranteed value of $531m, supporting the next phase of Borouge’s accelerated growth plans, driving operational cost savings over the full contract term,” it said. The deal could lead to more than $50 million in cost savings and efficiencies for Borouge in the first five years alone enhancing the company’s supply chain network, the company added. ADNOC L&S’ integrated logistics capabilities include managing container terminal operations, feeder services, and logistics solutions to meet increasing global demand. Borouge is involved in an upcoming merger with Austria’s Borealis and Canadian producer Nova Chemicals which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is currently planning green hydrogen initiatives worth around Indian rupees (Rs) 2 trillion ($23 billion), which include tenders for 42,000 tonne/year green hydrogen production by domestic oil refineries. Indian Oil eyes Dec ’27 start-up for 10,000 tonne/year Panipat hydrogen unit Two green ammonia projects start construction in Odisha Pilot projects initiated for hydrogen-powered heavy vehicles “Tenders for the production of 42,000 tonne/year have been floated by the refineries while 128 more will be issued by state-owned refineries based on the outcome of those tenders,” Indian petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri had said in a post on social media platform X on 6 June. As part of the initiative, nine research and development (R&D) or demo plants are under construction and four have been commissioned by state-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Gail India Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), he added. IOC, which is currently building India’s largest green hydrogen plant with a 10,000 tonne/year capacity at its Panipat Refinery Complex, expects to begin operations at the plant by December 2027, the company had said on 30 May. Once operational, the plant will “replace fossil-derived hydrogen in refinery operations, resulting in substantial reduction in carbon emissions”, IOC added. Separately, construction work has begun on two green hydrogen and green ammonia projects at the Gopalpur industrial park in the eastern Odisha state. Hygenco Green Energies Ltd plans to invest Rs40 billion to build a 1.1 million tonne/year green ammonia plant at Gopalpur in three phases. It expects to complete the first phase by 2027. UAE-based Ocior Energy, meanwhile, is building a 1 million tonne/year green hydrogen and green ammonia plant at the Gopalpur industrial park at a cost of Rs72 billion, Odisha’s state government announced. A 200,000 tonne/year plant will be built in the first phase of operations by 2028, and a much bigger 800,000 tonne/year unit will be completed by 2030 in the eastern Indian state, according to Ocior’s website. The Gopalpur Industrial Park will also house the ACME Green Hydrogen’s green ammonia project, as well as a 1,500 tonne/day green ammonia project being set up by the Avaada Group. Separately, in a bid to grow India’s green hydrogen infrastructure, the central government also aims to decarbonize its transport sector through the introduction of hydrogen-powered trucks and buses. The government expects to commission five pilot projects for running these hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2027, according to National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) director Abhay Bakre. In March 2025, the government initiated these pilot projects with participation from private firms such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) as well as state-owned IOC, HPCL and BPCL, among others. As part of the project, the pilot routes have been mapped out on 10 routes across the country with nine hydrogen refuelling stations. The government plans to deploy around 1,000 hydrogen-powered trucks and buses by 2030, NGHM’s Bakre said. The government expects to get “almost 50 trucks and buses running this year”, he said, adding that the numbers would increase further next year. While automakers such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hyundai have announced plans to develop hydrogen-powered vehicles, companies such as RIL, BPCL, IOC plan to create green hydrogen refuelling infrastructure. Launched in 2023, NGHM with an initial allocation of $2.4 billion, targets to have a minimum hydrogen production capacity of 5 million tonne/year by 2030. Since 2023, the government has allocated 862,000 tonne/year production capacity to 19 companies. ($1 = Rs85.60) Focus article by Priya Jestin

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is projected to slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 on escalating global trade tensions and related increases in policy uncertainty, the World Bank said on 10 June. Trade openness exposes EAP economies to policy shifts China’s growth outlook unchanged at 4.5%; projected to slow through 2027 Global 2025 growth cut to 2.3%; slowest since 2008 The global lender had earlier in January projected a 4.6% growth for the EAP region’s economy. “Due to their high trade openness, EAP economies are more exposed to trade policy shifts,” the World Bank said in its June Global Economic Prospects report. “The downgrade reflects the impact of higher tariffs on growth, which is expected to be partly offset by policy support measures in EAP economies, notably China.” CHINA’S GROWTH TO SLOWChina’s growth is expected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2025, unchanged with the prior forecast made in January, as “fiscal support [is] assumed to offset the impact of trade tensions with the US – China’s largest market for exports,” the World Bank said. China’s economy expanded by 5% in 2024. A soft labor market and subdued property sector in China are expected to weigh on consumption, though cushioned by fiscal stimulus. China’s growth is forecast at 4% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027, “in line with decelerating potential output growth, reflecting the effects of slowing productivity growth, an aging population, and high debt levels,” the World Bank said. For the EAP region excluding China, growth is expected to ease to 4.2% this year, mainly due to trade tensions. Increased trade policy uncertainty, reduced confidence, and spillovers from softer external demand in major advanced economies and China are likely to curtail exports and private investment in the region. East Asian economies are particularly vulnerable to heightened uncertainty “because of their relatively larger exposure to trade and, therefore, higher shares of investment in GDP,” the World Bank said. Economies with large export-oriented manufacturing sectors, including China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are particularly exposed. While some economies will benefit from fiscal policy support – like social spending and public investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam – “the full macroeconomic effects of higher trade barriers, which are hard to predict, could weigh on growth,” the World Bank cautioned. Looking ahead, EAP growth is forecast to remain subdued at 4% in both 2026 and 2027 as the outlook for the region faces primarily downside risks, with persistent policy uncertainty and potential escalation of trade tensions being key concerns. Other significant risks include tighter global financial conditions, spillovers from weaker growth in major economies, heightened geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters. On the upside, a partial resolution of trade tensions and reduced policy uncertainty would likely boost regional growth prospects above the baseline. More expansionary fiscal policy in China or major advanced economies could support faster-than-expected activity. Additionally, surging digital investment and technological adoption could boost productivity growth, as “major economies in the region rank high in terms of readiness for AI adoption, which could underpin stronger-than-expected regional growth,” the World Bank added. GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST SLASHEDThe global growth forecast for 2025 has been cut by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, marking the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions. By 2027, global GDP growth is expected to average just 2.5%, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s, the global lender warned. Global trade is projected to expand by 1.8% in 2025, a notable slowdown from 3.4% in 2024 and significantly below the 5.9% average seen in the 2000s. This forecast includes tariffs implemented through late May, such as the 10% US tariff on imports from most countries, but does not include tariff hikes announced by US President Donald Trump in April and later delayed until 9 July for negotiations. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Arrivals of container ships fell in May at the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) amid a trade war between the US and China but has shown a slight uptick in June while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade deal. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of LA/LB, said May container ship arrivals were at 5.0/day, slightly below the 5.7/day that was the average prior to the pandemic. Through the first five days of June, arrivals are at 5.6/day, which is still slightly below the pre-pandemic norm. Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to surge in the near term amid a pause in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates as shown in the following chart. NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said this is the busiest time of the year for US retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” Gold said. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.” Gold said many retailers suspended or canceled orders after US President Donald Trump announced a 145% tariff on China in April but have resumed imports after tariffs were reduced to 30% and a 90-day pause that will last until 12 August was announced. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until 9 July as the administration negotiates with those countries. ASIA-US RATES SURGE Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US have spiked over the past couple of weeks – and have almost doubled over the past four weeks – as demand has surged ahead of the possible reinstatement of tariffs while capacity remains tight. Rates from supply chain advisors showed drastic increases over the past two weeks, and weekly rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos came out today with Asia-USWC rates at $5,488/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) and at $6,410/FEU to the East Coast. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Offshore potash marketing group Canpotex announced it is fully committed on volumes for potash sales through 30 September. The group said this is due to continued strong demand for potash, underpinned by solid fundamentals for agricultural commodities and a sustained focus on food security in many of Canpotex’s key markets. Canpotex is the offshore marketing company for Saskatchewan potash producers Nutrien and Mosaic and has been operating since 1972.

LONDON (ICIS)–Verbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction in Germany is expected to start up in 2026, a company official told ICIS. The plant will produce renewable chemicals based on rapeseed oil methyl ester. “The distillation columns are in, all the big-ticket items have been installed,” Marc Siegel, Verbio’s head of sales, Specialty Chemicals and Catalysts, said in an interview. While there were some delays, the project at the Bitterfeld chemicals park in Saxony-Anhalt state remains on budget, he said. Capacities: – 32,000 tonnes/year of methyl 9-decenoate (9-DAME) – 17,000 tonnes/year of 1-decene. Project cost: €80-100 million. Startup: early 2026 “We are seeing a lot of interest in the materials,” Siegel said. 9-DAME has applications in surfactants, lubricants, solvents, polymers and others while 1-decene is a precursor for lubricants, coating agents, surfactants, polymers and others. Siegel also noted an opportunity to convert 9-DAME, which is similar to C10 fatty acid methyl ester, into a C10 fatty acid or alcohol, replacing palm kernel oil (PKO). Customers would thus avoid the complex supply chains of PKO, and its price fluctuations. More important, however, they would reduce their carbon footprint, and they could put palm-free and GMO-free labels on their shampoos and other products, he said. Nongovernment organizations have created a lot of pressure against palm oil because of the environmental impacts of palm oil plantations, he noted. A NEW CHEMICAL INDUSTRY “Customers see the value of these renewable chemicals”, he said, adding that many companies have strong decarbonization targets. While Germany’s chemical industry was currently in crisis, renewable chemicals was its opportunity, he said. “All the companies are hurting now, but once we rebound, there will be a new chemical industry, otherwise we will end up as an industrial museum,” he said. “Sustainability is the way to go, chemical companies need to reinvent themselves in the things they do,” he said. For Verbio, the ethenolysis project is part of its strategy to reduce its reliance on biofuels, Siegel said. Biofuels is a heavily regulated market that leaves producers exposed to political decisions, he said and noted the changes in policies under the current US administration. The diversification into renewable chemicals will give Verbio additional mainstays outside the transport sector, he said. While Verbio plans to focus on producing and supplying the two renewable chemicals – 9-DAME and 1-decene – it does not intend to get involved in making downstream products, he added. Interview article by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail photo of Verbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction at Bitterfeld, Germany. Source: Verbio

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s trade union representing auditors at the Federal Revenue service, which are some of the best-paid civil servants in the country, accepted late on Monday the court’s ruling ordering the end of their nearly seven-month strike, said Sindifisco. Ruling ends what most Brazilians just saw as state-fueled privilege Striking workers average salary: $5,000/month; Brazil’s median: $400-500/month The strike had started affecting the state’s tax collection While the judge’s ruling ordering the end of the strike was published over the weekend, as of Monday morning Sindifisco maintained it had not been officially notified yet. In a written response to ICIS late on Monday, the union said it had been notified and in compliance with the “democratic state of law” it would accept the ruling, but did not disclose any details about more industrial action for coming weeks. The ruling put an end to one of the longest strikes by civil servants in Brazil, started in November, and a case which has showed some of Brazil’s wrongs – civil servants paid multiple times more than the average Brazilian, complaining about the lack of salary increases. The Federal Revenue auditors have mostly fought this battle alone, and along the way they did not gain any new friends. For the government, the ruling puts an end to a dispute which was becoming increasingly negative for the economy – goods piling up in customs points across Brazil’s vast geography – as well as the state’s ability to collect the taxes due on imports and exports. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said in parliament in May that the strike was partly to blame for the lower-than-expected tax proceeds for 2025. The pressure was building up while Sindifisco was becoming increasingly isolated in its battle. Chemicals and fertilizers players, as well as most industrial companies, will have breathed a sigh of relief over the weekend as their concerns about trade flows had for months been increasing. The hangover from such an extended period of industrial action is expected to be tedious and things will take months, rather than weeks, to normalize, most analysts think. TIPPING POINTAs their demands kept falling in deaf ears with the government, Sindifisco stepped up the pressure in early June, calling for an even stricter industrial action. It proved lethal for its demands. The cabinet quickly puts its lawyers to work and convinced a judge that the latest strike action was affecting essential services that the state is mandated to deliver, as well as tax receipts. To make sure Sindifisco came around quickly, the judge’s ruling set a daily fine of Brazilian reais (R) 500,000 ($90,100) in case of non-compliance by the union. “Sindifisco states that it was formally notified today [Monday 9 June] of the preliminary decision of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) granted by Judge Benedito Goncalves and, respecting the democratic rule of law, it will respect the ruling,” it said in its written statement late on Monday. “The essential activities carried out by the auditors will be protected, including the suspension of standard operations in customs units.” In his ruling, the judge specifically mentioned “standard operations”, which is nothing but a euphemism which means auditors do still go to work and in theory carry out their tasks, but they do so at a much slower rate, amounting practically to strike action as workloads pile up. Sindifisco said its legal affairs department is evaluating “all applicable legal measures” to discuss the court decision. However, it did not respond to questions about what its next strategy could be based on, considering they have exhausted practically all industrial actions possible, without succeeding in their demands. The union’s main demand is hefty increases in wages to recoup the losses in purchasing power accumulated since 2016, as they claim their wages have been increased only once since 2016. But even that clear and rather unfair circumstance has not moved public opinion, political parties or the cabinet to the striking workers’ turf. The reason not difficult to find: their already very generous, taxpayers-funded wages. STATE-FUNDED PRIVILEGEA Federal Revenue auditor’s salary averages R28,000/month ($5,000/month), gross before taxes and social security contributions, according to the Brazilian branch of jobs site Glassdoor. That, in Brazil, is earned by less than 1% of the population. To make matters worse, those salaries are paid by all taxpayers, most of whom must endure low salaries and long days at work – or take on two jobs – to make ends meet. Wages for most Brazilians range between R1,518/month – the legal minimum wage, widely common in services jobs such as bars or shops – and around R3,000/month. The auditors’ salaries, which can also be found in other high-ranking civil servant positions, represent for many Brazilians the centuries-old, state-funded privilege which tends to be concentrated among white Brazilians who come from high-income households and, almost certainly, went to the country’s best universities. The 1950s idea of a new capital, Brasilia, which would be able to bring together a modernized and more inclusive version of all Brazils was a lovely idea on paper – which mostly stayed in the papers of idealists such as famous architect Oscar Niemeyer and his disciples. As the decades went by, old habits died hard, and Brasilia became a weird version – for good and bad – of the Brazil they were trying to change. Many of those Brasilia-based, well-paid civil servants have come to live in bubbles and are seen by most Brazilians as some sort of state-sponsored caste. No wonder the auditors’ plea… was never taken too seriously for most Brazilians or even considered just a bad joke. Opinion polls have been telling that story for months, but  Sindifisco seemed to fail to grasp the public’s mood and kept pushing. After the weekend’s ruling gave it the upper hand, the cabinet will be even less inclined to make any concessions now as it tries to rein in the fiscal deficit while keeping a good face in terms of welfare state spending, a difficult balance to start with. But any public opinion’s perception that the cabinet was giving in would have added to an extended belief about some civil servants: they have it better than most private sector employees, not least because their jobs, once they passed exams and obtain the qualifications, are practically secured until retirement. A generous state pension follows. EXPECTED COMPETITIVE ELECTIONBrazil will soon enter an unofficial, year-long electoral campaign as its nearly 160 million voters will be called to the polls to choose a president and renew parliament in October 2026. Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) and its governing coalition appear to have slim chances to revalidate their mandate as the PT’s core voters – low-income households – have greatly felt as of late the increase in basic items such as food, as a larger share of their spending goes to that. The government will not want to upset any potential voters by appearing to favor already privileged civil servants. The election could literally be decided by a few thousand votes, so any potential voter turning away would not be good news for the PT. To make things more confusing, the PT has yet to officially choose a presidential candidate as its hegemonic leader of the past three decades – Lula – keeps the incognita when enquired about it. And that is a rather strange circumstance, especially as the age of another President, that of US’ Joe Biden, became part of the public conversation after his debate debacle in June 2024. Be it because the Brazilian center-left has not been able to find a successor with the same appeal than Lula or be it because in Brazil’s idiosyncrasy blasting old age is considered rather rude, Lula’s age has not become part of the debate yet, at least to the same extent than it did in the US. Another strange circumstance as the signs of aging are evident for all to see. Biden was 81 during the debate. Lula would be 80 if he runs for re-election at the time of the poll but, if victorious, he would be sworn into office for a fourth term when he will have already turned 81. Front page picture source: Brazil’s Federal Revenue press services Focus article by Jonathan Lopez