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Ethylene22-Jul-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US and the Philippines
reached a trade deal, under which the US will
impose 19% tariffs on imports from the island
nation, while its shipments will enter the
country duty free, President Donald Trump said
on Tuesday.
“In addition, we will work together
Militarily,” Trump said on social media.
No reports of any trade deal were found on
websites of the Philippine
Information Agency or the Philippine News
Agency.
The rate disclosed by the US is 1 point below
the 20% rate that Trump proposed in a letter he
sent to the Philippines.
Chemical trade between the two countries is
relatively small. The Philippines exports
mostly polyethylene terephthalate (PET) to the
US and imports polyethylene (PE), base oils and
acrylate esters, according to the ICIS Supply
and Demand Database.
The Philippines is the largest source of US
imports of coconut oil, a feedstock used to
make oleochemicals.
The following table shows 2024 US imports from
the Philippines and exports to the Philippines.
Figures are in US dollars.
Imports for Consumption
($)
Domestic Exports ($)
US Deficit ($)
13,930,354,398
8,293,021,350
5,637,333,048
Source: US International Trade
Commission
The Philippines is the fourth country with
which the US said it reached a trade deal,
following agreements struck with the UK,
Vietnam and Indonesia.
The US said its imports will enter Vietnam and
Indonesia tariff free. It will impose tariffs
of 19% on Indonesian imports and 20% tariffs on
Vietnamese imports.
For UK imports, the US will impose 10% tariffs.
The UK made concessions on US imports of
ethanol and beef.
NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING FOR NUMEROUS
COUNTRIESIn July, the US
proposed tariffs on imports from the EU and 24
countries. The proposed rates will take effect
on 1 August if the countries cannot reach a
trade agreement or if the US does not postpone
the duties.
The following table shows the proposed rates
and the actual rates for any countries with
which the US said it reached trade agreements.
Country
Proposed rate
Trade Deal
Algeria
30%
NA
Bangladesh
35%
NA
Bosnia and Herzegovina
30%
NA
Brazil
50%
NA
Brunei
25%
NA
Cambodia
36%
NA
Canada
35%
NA
EU
30%
NA
Indonesia
32%
19%
Iraq
30%
NA
Japan
25%
NA
Kazakhstan
25%
NA
Laos
40%
NA
Libya
30%
NA
Malaysia
25%
NA
Mexico
30%
NA
Moldova
25%
NA
Myanmar
40%
NA
Philippines
20%
19%
Serbia
35%
NA
South Africa
30%
NA
South Korea
25%
NA
Sri Lanka
30%
NA
Thailand
36%
NA
Tunisia
25%
NA
Acetic Acid22-Jul-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Sherwin-Williams expects prices
for some of its petrochemical feedstock to
decline during the second half of 2026 amid a
weakening demand outlook that led the paints
and coatings company to lower its earnings and
sales guidance for the year.
The following table compares the company’s
latest earnings guidance with its previous one.
LATEST
PREVIOUS
Net sales
Up or down low-single digits
Up low-single digits
Diluted net income/share
$10.11-10.41
$10.70-11.10
Adjusted net income/share
$11.20-11.50
$11.65-12.05
Source: Sherwin-Williams
Shares of Sherwin-Williams are down by more
than 2%.
ARCHITECTURAL VOLUMES WORSE THAN
EXPECTEDSherwin-Williams is
lowering its guidance in part because
architectural sales volumes were softer than
expected. In addition, the company has reduced
production gallons within its global supply
chain, which introduced inefficiencies.
The overall outlook is for demand to be softer
for longer, said Heidi Petz, CEO of
Sherwin-Williams. She made her comments during
an earnings conference call.
Mortgage rates will likely end the year at
6.5%, according to Fannie Mae, a US company
that buys home loans and securitizes them.
Mortgage rates need to fall below 6% before the
housing market gets a boost, Petz said.
Demand actually deteriorated in some segments,
such as new residential, do-it-yourself (DIY)
and coil coatings.
“To be clear, we expect no help from the market
over the remainder of the year,” Petz said.
SOFTER DEMAND CONTRIBUTES TO
DEFLATIONThe weaker economic
outlook has led Sherwin-Williams to expect
costs to decline modestly for some of its raw
materials, such as solvents and some of its
resins.
On the other hand, tariffs are pushing costs
higher for applicators, extenders, pigments
other than titanium dioxide (TiO2) and
packaging. Many paint cans are made of steel,
and the US has imposed new tariffs on imports
of the metal
Possible tariffs on lumber and other timber
products would indirectly affect
Sherwin-Williams by raising costs for house
construction, a significant end market for its
architectural coatings.
The US started a section 232 investigation
into such imports, and a report is due at the
end of November.
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS SPEEDS UP COST
CUTTINGBecause of the weaker
outlook, Sherwin-Williams is speeding up its
earlier cost-cutting plan. The company is now
planning on $105 million or 32 cents/share of
restructuring initiatives for 2025, up from $50
million or 15 cents/share announced earlier in
the year. The program should cut annual costs
by $80 million.
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS SEES CHANCE TO TAKE
MARKET SHARE FROM
COMPETITORSSherwin-Williams’
competitors are contending with the same
low-growth outlook, and its largest competitors
have made “significant reductions in
customer-facing positions and assets”, Petz
said, without naming the companies. One unnamed
competitor is imposing high single-digit price
increases during the middle of the painting
season, a move that can disrupt customers’
operations.
Sherwin-Williams sees these moves by its
competitors as an opportunity to capture market
share.
“We continue to believe we are at a major
inflection point in the North American
architectural coatings industry and we refuse
to miss this once-in-a-career opportunity
that’s unfolding before us,” Petz said.
Sherwin-Williams did not discuss any
opportunities presented to the company
by the sale of PPG’s US and Canadian
architectural coatings to American Industrial
Partners (AIP).
Ethylene22-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–German chemical, pharmaceutical
and other companies can expect to see a sharp
decline in their exports to the important US
market, as a result of tariffs, Jorg Kramer,
chief economist at Germany’s Commerzbank, said
in a webinar hosted by chemical producers’
trade group VCI.
US protectionism to last for years
Germany to see near-term pick-up in GDP
Berlin unlikely to dismantle domestic
obstacles to growth
Commerzbank assumes that a US-EU trade deal,
once reached, could lead to an average US
import tariff of 15% on EU goods, which could
imply that Germany’s exports to the US drop by
one-third, Kramer said.
The US tariffs marked a “historic shift”
(Zeitenwende) away from globalization to
de-globalization, over the coming years, if not
decades, he said.
“This will make for a difficult environment for
Germany’s industry, and of course for its
chemical industry,” he said.
At the same time, US tariffs on China were
leading to more exports from China to Europe
and Germany, putting pressure on prices, he
said.
The causes for the US sentiment against free
trade could be found in China’s accession to
the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001,
Kramer said.
Without China’s integration into the WTO, and
the issues that caused, the high level of US
protectionism would not have occurred, he said.
Chinese companies had built up massive overcapacities,
causing declining producer prices and a push
into export markets, he said.
About 23% of Chinese companies were making
losses yet continued to operate, he noted.
US TO AVOID RECESSION
Meanwhile, although the tariff uncertainties
would lead to lower economic growth in the US
as well, the country would not fall into
recession, Kramer said.
US President Donald Trump had taken over a
“very solid economy”, Kramer said. Trump was
inaugurated on 20 January.
Since the pandemic, the US economy grew by a
cumulative 12%, Kramer said.
That growth alone was equivalent to Germany’s
total GDP, demonstrating the “underlying
dynamic” and strength of the US economy, he
said.
GERMANY WILL NOT RISE TO TARIFF
CHALLENGE
As for Germany, the country would see a
recovery next year, largely driven by lower
interest rates and planned debt-financed
government spending
on infrastructure and defense, he said.
There would be a near-term boost to GDP as the
government was shifting defense and
infrastructure spending out of its core budget,
which would then create new room for spending
in the core budget, he explained.
The recovery, with GDP growth of about 1.4% in
2026, may be a “flash in the pan”, but that was
still better than a permanent recession, he
said.
Germany’s GDP fell in both 2023 and 2024. For
2025, economists currently forecast 0.2-0.4%
growth.
However, Kramer is skeptical that Germany will
rise to the US tariff challenge and take it as
an opportunity for a much-needed reset or
restart (Neustart) of its economy, with Berlin
addressing bureaucracy, high taxes, high labor
costs, high energy costs, complex and expensive
permitting processes, and other impediments to
growth, he said.
Taxes: As it stands, it
remains unclear if the new coalition
government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz
will really cut corporate taxes, Kramer said.
Labor costs: Germany’s
already high labor costs and social security
levies would continue to rise, he said.
Infrastructure: The
government’s promised investments in
infrastructure would continue to take years
to realize as the country’s many
environmental groups remain powerful, meaning
that they can block or delay projects.
Energy: Germany would remain
a high-cost country, and many chemical
companies have already reacted by shutting
capacities, he said.
Bureaucracy: While promising
to reduce bureaucracy and red tape, over the
last 20 years all German governments failed
to keep those promises.
Reducing bureaucracy could only succeed if
government trusts companies, and Kramer doubts
that the government does, he said.
Meanwhile major German chemical firms – BASF,
Covestro and Brenntag – have already written
off 2025 and cut
their earnings forecasts amid weak demand
and the tariff uncertainties.
VCI, for its part, expects a 2% decline in
Germany’s chemical production (excluding
pharmaceuticals) in 2025.
Please also visit:
US
tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and
energy
Thumbnail photo: The seat of Germany’s
parliament in Berlin. Source:
Shutterstock.

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Speciality Chemicals22-Jul-2025
BARCELONA (ICIS)–Slowing demand growth and a
battle for market share between Saudi Arabia
and the US could see crude oil prices drop
significantly by the end of the year.
High oil prices stimulate more production,
low prices less
Saudi Arabia and the US battle for market
share
Global demand for oil is around 100 million
barrels/day
Electric vehicles (EVs) have destroyed 2
million barrels/day of oil demand
Around 20% of global vehicle sales are EVs
Oil prices could fall to $40-$45/barrel by
the end of the year
Oil demand growth weakest in 16 years
Low oil price is double-edged sword for
chemical markets
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews ICIS Insight
Editor Tom Brown and
Paul Hodges, chairman of
New Normal Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here .
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
Polyethylene22-Jul-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: From 1992 until 2021,
predicting chemicals and polymers markets was
simple. Booming China, youthful consumer
demand, and stable globalization made
assumptions as comfortable as an old pair of
carpet slippers. Climate change risks felt
distant, and plastic waste implications were
largely overlooked.
Not anymore. The slippers have fallen apart.
We’re now navigating wildly difficult market
conditions, like walking barefoot on a pebble
beach – sharp pains could hit at any moment.
Some analysts are waiting for a return to the
“Old Normal.” But as the saying goes, “Those
who can’t count the things that count, count
the things that don’t count.” Markets are much
more complex now; we must acknowledge this to
move forward.
The good news? AI offers a lifeline. It can
help us measure complex patterns humans can’t,
from the impact of climate migration on demand
to how geopolitical shifts reshape trade. It
can also optimize plastic waste recycling and
effectively monitor carbon emissions for fair
taxation/credits.
This new era demands multi-layered scenario
planning. For example, you should combine my
Iran-Israel crisis scenarios, from my 1 July
post, with three global economic scenarios
(produced with the help of ChatGPT Plus)
stemming from US President Donald Trump’s
recent tariff announcements.
Here’s a snapshot of what could happen:
Best-Case: Tariffs soften, markets
stabilize, and global GDP takes only a mild
hit.
Medium-Case: Tariffs escalate, retaliation
begins. Supply chains stress, stagflation fears
return, and major economies flirt with
recession.
Worst-Case: All-in trade war, depression
risk. Global GDP contracts sharply, trade
collapses, and unemployment surges worldwide.
Confused? You should be! The only sensible
response is to embrace complex and nuanced
scenario planning to protect your business.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Hydrogen21-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–On 21 July a spokesperson for
the Dutch Ministry of Climate and Green Growth
told ICIS that €1.78 million per megawatt (MW)
of electrolysis capacity is the average grant
amount for the 11 renewable hydrogen projects
in the latest round of the government’s
development of the hydrogen economy scheme
(OWE).
OWE awarded a total of over
€700 million in subsidies for a
combined 602MW of electrolyser capacity.
OWE provides up to 80% of the capital
costs for building a hydrogen production
plant and covers the difference between the
cost of generating renewable hydrogen and the
cost of generating carbon-intensive hydrogen
through steam methane reforming.
The ministry also revealed the MW per project,
with energy companies Air Liquide and Uniper
securing the largest share of subsidised
capacity, with 192MW and 178MW respectively.
This makes up over 60% of the total.
A spokesperson for Uniper has confirmed to ICIS
that the subsidy has been awarded for the
company’s 500MW Maasvlakte project, for which
it targets operations by 2030. The company has
not disclosed the amount awarded.
ICIS has reached out to Air Liquide for the
details of its awarded project in Rotterdam. In
February the company announced it will build a
200MW plant there, which is expected to be
operational by 2027.
It has an estimated production of up 23,000
tons of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen
annually and will supply energy major
TotalEnergies through a long-term contract.
In 2024 the company began construction of the
Porthos carbon capture and storage project in
the port of Rotterdam, which is expected to be
completed in 2026 and aims to enable the
production low-carbon hydrogen.
Ethylene21-Jul-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 18 July.
INSIGHT: Tariffs on EU would pile on
costs for US aromatics
imports
With Friday’s announcement of duties on EU
goods, the US has proposed additional tariffs
on just about every one of its major sources
of imported aromatics, leaving domestic
buyers few options to avoid the charges if
they go into effect as planned on 1 August.
Indonesia reaches trade deal with US
– president
The US reached a trade deal with Indonesia,
the nation’s president said on Tuesday. Under
the agreement, the US will charge a tariff of
19% on imports from Indonesia, President
Donald Trump said on social media. For
transshipments from countries subject to
higher rates, the US will impose the higher
rate on top of the Indonesia rate.
INSIGHT: Indonesian tariffs leave US
oleos few options to avoid higher
costs
The 19% tariffs that the US will impose on
Indonesian imports will leave the nation’s
oleochemical industry with few options to
avoid the higher rates, given the
archipelago’s role as the largest supplier of
oleochemicals and feedstock.
US investigation into Brazil policies
points to more tariffs
The US has started an investigation into
Brazilian policies under Section 301, the
same provision it used to impose tariffs on
numerous Chinese imports in 2018.
Indonesia tariff agreement could
drive increase in US PE
imports
Indonesia’s tariff agreement with the US
could result in more imports of polyethylene
(PE) flowing from the world’s biggest economy
into southeast Asia’s second biggest PE
consumption market.
US home builder confidence edges up
on passage of Trump’s fiscal
bill
US builder confidence in the market for newly
built single-family homes improved slightly
in July following the passage of US President
Donald Trump’s fiscal bill, the National
Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported
on Thursday.
INSIGHT: Muted EU reaction to US
tariff proposals underplays its true
implications
A relatively sanguine EU market reaction to
the latest US tariff proposals belies the
fact that, come August, the bloc could face
duties on exports to the country that would
have been unthinkable seven months ago.
INSIGHT: National standards to cut
recycled-plastics costs amid virgin
glut
National US standards for recycled plastics
would make it easier for companies to collect
waste plastic, which would lower costs and
make the material more competitive in a
market oversupplied with virgin resin, the
American Chemistry Council (ACC) said.
Ethylene21-Jul-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The latest US tariffs on
Brazilian goods due to come into force on 1
August are related to “political” issues rather
than trade and could still be revised or
revoked, according to credit ratings agency
Moody’s.
John Rogers, senior vice president and head
analyst for chemicals at Moody’s, said a
revision to US tariffs is also likely due to
their political nature and the fact that Brazil
does not have a surplus in goods trade with the
US – with the US running an even larger surplus
than the average.
When announcing the tariffs last week, US
President Donald Trump justified them for what
he described as a “witch hunt” against former
President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial for
an alleged coup attempt in January 2023.
“We don’t have a house view on the
macroeconomic impact yet. I think the situation
is very fluid, but in the past few months, we
have had several announcements that were later
revoked or revised. Hopefully, everything gets
resolved before 1 August but, if not, I think
the impact on both the US and Brazil is going
to be significant,” said Rogers.
“From the corporate side we can say that this,
for sure. It adds challenges and uncertainties
to business decisions, to investment decisions,
to global trade and to prices. Ultimately, this
would have an impact on demand which is already
depressed. Not only for Brazil in general, but
for the chemical sector globally.”
Rogers said although most US tariffs are being
directed at countries that have a trade surplus
with the US, it is not the case for Brazil.
Not only does the US have a large trade surplus
with Brazil, it also enjoys a trade surplus in
chemicals, according to chemicals trade group
Abiquim. Last year, Brazil posted a significant
trade deficit with the US – importing $10.4
billion worth of chemicals, but exporting just
$2.4 billion.
“Most of the tariffs we are seeing are directed
to countries that have trade surpluses with the
US – Brazil does not have one,” Rogers pointed
out.
Many in Brazil’s industrial sector expect the
crisis to be sorted
out well before the 1 August deadline – and
do not expect the tariffs to be implemented –
at least not by the damaging percentages
announced earlier.
“We simply need this to be reversed and we
think it will be reversed very soon. Otherwise,
this will be a big impact on us here in Brazil:
20% of our exports are destined for the US,”
said a source in the powerful food sector, a
large consumer of polymers.
“We’re not even counting on this becoming a
reality in August. We’re counting on this to be
resolved sooner.”
However, the more pessimistic expect GDP growth
to be hit by about half a percentage point over
the next three years.
“Our Tariff Impact Model indicates that a 50%
US import tariff could exert a hit of about
0.6% on Brazil’s GDP over a three-year period.
We suspect that the impact would be mitigated
by a fall in the real – it declined by about
2.5% against the dollar yesterday and we expect
a further depreciation this year – and some
redirection of exports to other markets,” said
analysts at Capital Economics.
“That might leave the impact in the order of
0.3-0.5% of GDP. So, it is not an enormous hit,
but also not helpful at a time when the economy
appears to be slowing sharply.”
Front page picture shows the Brazilian
flag
Picture by Fernando Bizerra
Jr/EPA/REX/Shutterstock
Petrochemicals21-Jul-2025
BLOG: Europe’s chemical industry under major threat – a rapid
move to protectionism seems inevitable
LONDON (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on
Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges,
which looks at the ARG pipeline network and the
threat to Europe’s chemical industry.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
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